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Topik 2 Probability Distribution PDF
Topik 2 Probability Distribution PDF
Probability
Distribution
In Words In Symbols
1. The probability of each value of 0 £ P (x) £ 1
the discrete random variable is
between 0 and 1, inclusive.
Guidelines
Let x be a discrete random variable with possible
outcomes x1, x2, … , xn.
1. Make a frequency distribution for the possible
outcomes.
2. Find the sum of the frequencies.
3. Find the probability of each possible outcome by
dividing its frequency by the sum of the frequencies.
4. Check that each probability is between 0 and 1 and
that the sum is 1.
MEAN
The mean of a discrete random variable is given by
µ = ΣxP(x).
Each value of x is multiplied by its corresponding
probability and the products are added.
Example:
Find the mean of the probability distribution for the sum of
the two spins.
x P (x) xP (x)
2 0.0625 2(0.0625) = 0.125 ΣxP(x) = 3.5
3 0.375 3(0.375) = 1.125 The mean for the
4 0.5625 4(0.5625) = 2.25 two spins is 3.5.
VARIANCE
The variance of a discrete random variable is given by
s2 = Σ(x – µ)2P (x).
Example:
Find the variance of the probability distribution for the sum
of the two spins. The mean is 3.5.
σ = σ 2.
Example:
Find the standard deviation of the probability distribution
for the sum of the two spins. The variance is 0.376.
Example:
At a raffle, 500 tickets are sold for $1 each for two prizes of
$100 and $50. What is the expected value of your gain?
Gain, x P (x)
E(x) = ΣxP(x).
1
$99 500 1 1 498
= $99 × + $49 × + (-$1) ×
1 500 500 500
$49 500
= -$0.70
–$1 498
500
Because the expected value is
Winning negative, you can expect to lose
no prize
$0.70 for each ticket you buy.
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTIONS
BINOMIAL EXPERIMENTS
Symbol Description
n The number of times a trial is repeated.
P (x ) = nC x p q x n -x
=
n ! x n -x
p q .
(n - x )! x !
p = the probability of selecting a red chip = 3 = 0.3
10
q = 1 – p = 0.7 P (1) = 3C 1(0.3)1(0.7)2
n=3 = 3(0.3)(0.49)
x=1 = 0.441
FINDING PROBABILITIES
Example:
The following probability distribution represents the probability of
selecting 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 red chips when 4 chips are selected.
0.1
0 x
0 1 2 3 4
Number of red chips
MEAN, VARIANCE AND STANDARD DEVIATION
Population Parameters of a Binomial Distribution
Mean: µ = np
Variance: σ 2 = npq
Standard deviation: σ = npq
Example:
One out of 5 students at a local college say that they skip breakfast in
the morning. Find the mean, variance and standard deviation if 10
students are randomly selected.
n = 10 µ = np σ 2 = npq σ = npq
p = 1 = 0.2 = 10(0.2) = (10)(0.2)(0.8) = 1.6
5
q = 0.8 =2 = 1.6 » 1.3
MORE DISCRETE
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
GEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION
Normal Probability
Distribution
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
21
PROPERTIES OF NORMAL DISTRIBUTIONS
The most important probability distribution in
statistics is the normal distribution.
Normal curve
22
PROPERTIES OF NORMAL DISTRIBUTIONS
Properties of a Normal Distribution
1. The mean, median, and mode are equal.
2. The normal curve is bell-shaped and symmetric about
the mean.
3. The total area under the curve is equal to one.
4. The normal curve approaches, but never touches the x-
axis as it extends farther and farther away from the
mean.
5. Between µ - σ and µ + σ (in the center of the curve), the
graph curves downward. The graph curves upward to
the left of µ - σ and to the right of µ + σ. The points at
which the curve changes from curving upward to
curving downward are called the inflection points.
23
PROPERTIES OF NORMAL DISTRIBUTIONS
Inflection points
Total area = 1
x
µ - 3σ µ - 2σ µ-σ µ µ+σ µ + 2σ µ + 3σ
25
THE STANDARD NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
The standard normal distribution is a normal distribution
with a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1.
z
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
26
THE STANDARD NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
If each data value of a normally distributed random
variable x is transformed into a z-score, the result will be
the standard normal distribution.
The area that falls in the interval under
the nonstandard normal curve (the x-
values) is the same as the area under
the standard normal curve (within the
corresponding z-boundaries).
z
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
28
GUIDELINES FOR FINDING AREAS
z
0 1.23
1. Use the table to find
the area for the z-score.
29
GUIDELINES FOR FINDING AREAS
z
0 1.23
1. Use the table to find
the area for the z-score.
30
GUIDELINES FOR FINDING AREAS
z
-0.75 0 1.23
31
NORMAL DISTRIBUTIONS:
FINDING PROBABILITIES
32
PROBABILITY AND NORMAL DISTRIBUTIONS
µ = 10
P(x < 15) σ=5
x
µ =10 15
33
PROBABILITY AND NORMAL DISTRIBUTIONS
x z
µ =10 15 µ =0 1
Same area
P(x < 15) = P(z < 1) = Shaded area under the curve
= 0.8413
34
NORMAL DISTRIBUTIONS:
FINDING VALUES
35
FINDING Z-SCORES
Example:
Find the z-score that corresponds to a cumulative area
of 0.9973. Appendix B: Standard Normal Table
z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08
.08 .09
0.0 .5000 .5040 .5080 .5120 .5160 .5199 .5239 .5279 .5319 .5359
0.1 .5398 .5438 .5478 .5517 .5557 .5596 .5636 .5675 .5714 .5753
0.2 .5793 .5832 .5871 .5910 .5948 .5987 .6026 .6064 .6103 .6141
2.6 .9953 .9955 .9956 .9957 .9959 .9960 .9961 .9962 .9963 .9964
2.7
2.7 .9965 .9966 .9967 .9968 .9969 .9970 .9971 .9972 .9973 .9974
2.8 .9974 .9975 .9976 .9977 .9977 .9978 .9979 .9979 .9980 .9981
Example:
Find the z-score that corresponds to a cumulative area
of 0.4170.
Appendix B: Standard Normal Table
z .09 .08 .07 .06 .05 .04 .03 .02 .01
.01 .00
-3.4 .0002 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003
-0.2 .0003 .0004 .0004 .0004 .0004 .0004 .0004 .0005 .0005 .0005
Use the
closest
-0.3 .3483 .3520 .3557 .3594 .3632 .3669 .3707 .3745 .3783 .3821
area.
-0.2
-0.2 .3859 .3897 .3936 .3974 .4013 .4052 .4090 .4129 .4168 .4207
-0.1 .4247 .4286 .4325 .4364 .4404 .4443 .4483 .4522 .4562 .4602
-0.0 .4641 .4681 .4724 .4761 .4801 .4840 .4880 .4920 .4960 .5000
Example:
Find the z-score that corresponds to P75.
Area = 0.75
z
µ =0 ?
0.67
38
TRANSFORMING A Z-SCORE TO AN X-SCORE
x = µ + zσ
= 120 +1.60(16)
= 145.6
We can conclude that an electric bill of $145.60 is 1.6 standard
deviations above the mean.
39
FINDING A SPECIFIC DATA VALUE
Example:
The weights of bags of chips for a vending machine are
normally distributed with a mean of 1.25 ounces and a
standard deviation of 0.1 ounce. Bags that have weights in
the lower 8% are too light and will not work in the machine.
What is the least a bag of chips can weigh and still work in the
machine?
P(z < ?) = 0.08
8% P(z < -1.41) = 0.08
z
?
-1.41 0 x = µ + zσ
x
? 1.25
= 1.25 + (-1.41)0.1
1.11
= 1.11
The least a bag can weigh and still work in the machine is 1.11 ounces.
40
SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS AND
THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM
41
SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS
A sampling distribution is the probability distribution of a
sample statistic that is formed when samples of size n are
repeatedly taken from a population.
Sample Sample
Sample Sample
Sample
Sample
Sample
Sample
Population Sample
Sample
42
SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS
Sample 3
Sample 1 x3 Sample 6
Sample 4
x4 x1 Sample 5 Sample 2
x6
x5 x2
43
PROPERTIES OF SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS
σx = σ
n
The standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the sample
means is called the standard error of the mean.
44
THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM
If a sample of size n ³ 30 is taken from a population with
any type of distribution that has a mean = µ and standard
deviation = s,
x x
µ µ
the sample means will have a normal distribution.
xx
x x
x x x
x x x x x x
µ
45
THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM
x
µ
the sample means will have a normal distribution for
any sample size n. x x
x x
x x x
x x x x x
x
µ
46
THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM
In either case, the sampling distribution of sample means
has a mean equal to the population mean.
µx = µ Mean of the
sample means
Z =
(x - µ x )
sx
48
UJI NORMALITAS
X =å
2 ( f0 - fe ) 2
fe