Nama : Yusriani Syam

NIM : A021181033

TUGAS 3

TEORI PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN

Soal :

The problems that follow involve simulations that are to be done by hand. You are aware that to
obtain accurate and meaningful results, long periods must be simulated. This is usually handled
by computer. If you are able to program some of the problems using a spreadsheet, or QM for
Windows, we suggest that you try to do so. If not, the hand simulations will still help you in
understanding the simulation process.

14-14 Clark Property Management is responsible for the maintenance, rental, and day-to-day
operation of a large apartment complex on the east side of New Orleans. George Clark is
especially concerned about the cost projections for replacing air conditioner compressors. He
would like to simulate the number of compressor failures each year over the next 20 years. Using
data from a similar apartment building he manages in a New Orleans suburb, Clark establishes a
table of relative frequency of failures during a year as shown in the following table:

He decides to simulate the 20-year period by selecting two-digit random numbers from the third
column of Table 14.4, starting with the random number 50. Conduct the simulation for Clark. Is
it common to have three or more consecutive years of operation with two or fewer compressor
failures per year?

14.19 Every home football game for the past eight years at Eastern State University has been
sold out. The revenues from ticket sales are significant, but the sale of food, beverages, and
souvenirs has contributed greatly to the overall profitability of the football program. One
particular souvenir is the football program for each game. The number of programs sold at each
game is described by the following probability distribution:

Historically, Eastern has never sold fewer than 2,300 programs or more than 2,700 programs at
one game. Each program costs $0.80 to produce and sells for $2.00. Any programs that are not
sold are donated to a recycling center and do not produce any revenue.

(a) Simulate the sales of programs at 10 football games. Use the last column in the random
number table (Table 14.4) and begin at the top of the column.

(b) If the university decided to print 2,500 programs for each game, what would the average
profits be for the 10 games simulated in part (a)?

(c) If the university decided to print 2,600 programs for each game, what would the average
profits be for the 10 games simulated in part (a)?

Jawaban :

Problems 14.14

compute cumulative probability and interval of random numbers

Numbers Of Failure Probability Qumulative Probability Interval Of Random Numbers

0 0,06 0,06 01 to 06
1 0,13 0,19 07 to 19
2 0,25 0,44 20 to 44
3 0,28 0,72 45 to 72
4 0,20 0,92 73 to 92
5 0,07 0,99 93 to 99
 6 0,01 1,00 00

Years Random Number Simulated Fairules During A Year

1 50 3
2 28 2
3 68 3
4 36 2
5 90 4
6 62 3
7 27 2
8 50 3
9 18 1
10 36 2
11 61 3
12 21 2
13 36 2
14 01 0
15 14 1
16 81 4
17 87 4
18 72 4
19 80 4
20 46 3
Total 20 year failure = 52
Average 20 year failure =52/20=2.6

Problems 14.19

A.) Simulate the sales of programs at 10 football games. Use the last column in the random number
table (Table 1)
B.) If the University decided to print 2,500 programs for each game, what would the average
profits be for the 10

Random
Year Profits Game Sold Revenue
Number
1 $2600 2600 1 7 2300 0
2 $3000 3000 2 60 2500 0
3 $3000 3000 3 77 2500 0
4 $3000 3000 4 49 2500 0
5 $3000 3000 5 76 2500 0
6 $3000 3000 6 95 2500 0
7 $3000 3000 7 51 2500 0
8 $2800 2800 8 16 2400 0
9 $2600 2600 9 14 2300 0
10 $3000 3000 10 85 2500 0
Total = $ 2.900
If the university decides to print 2500 programs for each game, they will make an average yearly
profit of $2900.

C.) If the University decided to print 2,600 programs for each game, what would the average
profits be for the 10

Year Profits Profits

1 2,520
2 2,920
3 3,120
4 2,920
 5 3,120
6 3,120
7 2,920
8 2,720
9 2,520
10 3,120
Total $2,900

If the university decides to print 2600 programs for each game, they will make an average yearly
profit of $2900