DMPA – Group 8

Prameet Barua – M031-19

Kavya Barnadhya Hazarika – M072-19
Naga Vineetha Guntupalli – M100-19
Sheereen Ketketta – M117-19
Saloni Shikha – M181-19
Q.2. Consider the data in the file coursetopics.xls. These data are for
purchases of online statistics courses at statistics.com. Each row
represents the courses attended by a single customer. The firm wishes to
assess alternative sequencings and combinations of courses. Use
Association Rules to analyse these data, and interpret several of the
resulting rules.

Data consists of transactions for 8 different courses. On analysing the

data with conditions of support = 0.01 and confidence =0.5, we found 54
rules.

On sorting the rules based on lift and observing the top rules sorted by
lift, we find the following analysis and recommendations:

• Rules 1,4 and 7 have same courses Intro, Regression, Forecast and
Data Mining were present in different combinations which implies
that these 4 courses usually go together. So, we recommend that
these courses are bundled together to increase the number of
transactions.
• From rules 4 and 5, we can observe that while lift is higher for these
rules, confidence is low. This implies that RHS i.e. Forecast course is
being bought less while whenever Forecast course is taken, it is
very likely that intro,datamining, regression (for rule 4) or intro,
survey, cat.data (for rule 5) are taken. So, the reasons for lower
transactions consisting forecast course should be analysed and
sufficient discounts and marketing should be done to increase the
scenarios where forecast is bought.
Q.3. The data shown in Figure 11.7 are a subset of a dataset on cosmetic
purchases given in binary matrix form. The complete dataset (in the file
Cosmetics.xls) contains data on the purchases of different cosmetic items
at a large chain drugstore. The store wants to analyze associations among
purchases of these items for purposes of point-of-sale display, guidance
to sales personnel in promoting cross sales, and guidance for piloting an
eventual time-of purchase electronic recommender system to boost cross
sales. Consider first only the subset shown in Figure 11.7 (CH10-Assoc-
Exer_Cosmetics-small.eps)

a. Select several values in the matrix and explain their meaning.

Transaction column in the data represents number of transactions and all

the remaining columns indicate the items purchased in respective
transactions.

Value =1 implies that the item is bought in the transaction and when the
value = 0, it implies that the item was not purchased in the transaction.

Transaction 1 has value of 1 for Blush, Nail Polish, Brushes, concealer and
Bronzer implying that these items are bought in transaction 1

Similarly, in transaction 2, Nail Polish, Concealer and Bronzer are bought.

b. Consider the results of the Association Rules analysis shown in
figure 11.8 and (CH10-Assoc-Cosmetics-small-rules.eps)

i. For the first row, explain the “Conf. %” output and how it is calculated.

Confidence is defined as the ratio of number of transactions that

include all the antecedent and consequent itemsets to the number
of transactions that include all antecedent itemsets

Confidence (x y) = N(xy)/N(x)

For the first row, confidence of 60.19% indicates that 60.19% of the
times Brushes and Concealer are bought whenever Bronzer and Nail
Polish are bought.

ii. For the first row, explain the “Support(a), Support(c) and Support (a U
c) output and how it is calculated.

Support (a) indicates the number of transactions in which

antecedent is present. Support is calculated as follows

Support = N(antecedent)/ N

where N stands for total number of transactions.

So, bronzer and nail polish are present in 100 transactions.

Similarly, support (c) indicates the number of transactions in which
consequent i.e. brushers and concealer for rule 1 are present.
 Support (a U c) indicates the transactions in which both antecedent
and consequent are present i.e. all bronzer, nail polish, brushers
and concealer in this case are present in 62 transactions.

iii. For the first row, explain the “Lift Ratio” and how it is calculated.

Lift is the measure of performance of a rule and it is given by

Lift (x y) = confidence (x y)/support(y)

In the first row, lift ratio of 3.909 indicates that if a person buys
bronzer and nail polish then there is 390.9% more chance that they
will also buy brushers and concealer.

iv. For the first row, explain the rule that is represented there in words.

Rule in first row indicates that when bronzer and nail polish are
bought, we are 60.19% confident that brushers and concealer are
also brought.

v. Find all the Association Rules from the data.

On analysing all the variables from column 2 to 15, i.e bag to

eyeliner, under conditions that minlen=2, maxlen =5, support =0.1
and confidence = 0.5, 124 rules were generated.

Top 25 rules sorted by lift are as follows:

vi. Interpret the first several rules in the output in words.

On interpreting the first few rules sorted by lift, our analysis and
recommendations are as follows:
• From rules 1 and 2, we can notice that Brushes as antecedent
have higher confidence while as consequent confidence dropped
to 53.2% indicating that the number of transactions with brushes
is few. So, brushes should be placed alongside nail polish
encouraging the buyers to consider brushes while buying nail
polish. Also, discounts can be provided on brushes to increase
the sales.
• In 4 of the top 10 rules, blush, concealer, eyeshadow and
mascara are present under different combinations. So, all these
4 can be bundled together to increase the overall sales of all the
4 products.

vii. Reviewing the first couple of dozen rules, comment on their

redundancy, and how you would assess their utility.

We observe that, a consumer buys X together with Y, the

consumer’s attention can probably handle only a couple of rules.

The first fourteen rules come in pairs that are mirror images of one
another, so we can tackle them that way.

The first two rules suggest that: if someone buys nail polish, offer
brushes.

Of the remaining 22, all but one involves mascara, mostly as a

consequent. Masacara can be used a companion product in general.

Rules 3 – 10 could be consolidated into a general offer covering the

5 products that keep reappearing in these “multi-item” rules:
eyeliner, mascara, concealer, eyeshadow, and blush.

Rules 11-14 suggests that something similar for lip gloss,

eyeshadow, foundation and mascara.

Rules 18,20 and 23 could be used in coupon or web systems.