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MarketLine Industry Profile

Biofuel Production in
Canada
February 2011

Reference Code: 0070-2609

Publication Date: February 2011

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Market value
The Canadian biofuel production industry shrank by 0.6% in 2010 to reach a value of $556.4 million.

Market value forecast

In 2015, the Canadian biofuel production industry is forecast to have a value of $854.5 million, an increase of 53.6%
since 2010.

Market volume
The Canadian biofuel production industry shrank by 1.4% in 2010 to reach a volume of 942.4 thousand tons.

Market volume forecast

In 2015, the Canadian biofuel production industry is forecast to have a volume of 1,344.4 thousand tons, an increase of
42.7% since 2010.

Geography segmentation
Canada accounts for 1.6% of the Americas biofuel production industry value.

Market rivalry
The Canadian biofuel industry has experienced rapid growth in recent years as governments look to incentivize
environmentally friendly alternatives to fossil fuels. These incentives have come primarily in the form of tax breaks and
investment.The industry’s dynamic growth in recent years has been down, in part, to the fact that it is still very much a
young industry. With the emphasis, and in some case legislation, being placed on green energy, strong growth is
expected to continue. This makes the industry attractive to prospective new entrants, although the presence of
established players such as BIOX Corporation and Canadian Bioenergy Corporation may act as a deterrent. The threat
of substitutes is very strong with traditional fossil fuels such as petrol and diesel readily available, often at a lower cost.
The expanding nature of the market eases rivalry to some degree.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................................... 2

Market value............................................................................................................................................................... 2

Market value forecast ................................................................................................................................................. 2

Market volume............................................................................................................................................................ 2

Market volume forecast .............................................................................................................................................. 2

Geography segmentation ........................................................................................................................................... 2

Market rivalry.............................................................................................................................................................. 2

Market Overview ............................................................................................................................................................ 7

Market definition ......................................................................................................................................................... 7

Market analysis .......................................................................................................................................................... 7

Market Data ................................................................................................................................................................... 8

Market value............................................................................................................................................................... 8

Market volume............................................................................................................................................................ 9

Market Segmentation ................................................................................................................................................... 10

Geography segmentation ......................................................................................................................................... 10

Market Outlook ............................................................................................................................................................. 11

Market value forecast ............................................................................................................................................... 11

Market volume forecast ............................................................................................................................................ 12

Five Forces Analysis .................................................................................................................................................... 13

Summary .................................................................................................................................................................. 13

Buyer power ............................................................................................................................................................. 14

Supplier power ......................................................................................................................................................... 15

New entrants ............................................................................................................................................................ 16

Threat of substitutes................................................................................................................................................. 17

Degree of rivalry ....................................................................................................................................................... 18

Leading Companies ..................................................................................................................................................... 19

BIOX Corporation ..................................................................................................................................................... 19

Canadian Bioenergy Corporation ............................................................................................................................. 20

GreenField Ethanol Inc. ........................................................................................................................................... 21

Macroeconomic Indicators ........................................................................................................................................... 22

Country Data ............................................................................................................................................................ 22

Appendix ...................................................................................................................................................................... 24

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 Methodology............................................................................................................................................................. 24

Industry associations ................................................................................................................................................ 25

Related MarketLine research ................................................................................................................................... 25

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LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Canada biofuel production industry value: $ million, 2006–10 ......................................................................... 8

Table 2: Canada biofuel production industry volume: thousand tons, 2006–10 ............................................................. 9

Table 3: Canada biofuel production industry geography segmentation: $ million, 2010 ............................................... 10

Table 4: Canada biofuel production industry value forecast: $ million, 2010–15 .......................................................... 11

Table 5: Canada biofuel production industry volume forecast: thousand tons, 2010–15 ............................................. 12

Table 6: BIOX Corporation: key facts ........................................................................................................................... 19

Table 7: Canadian Bioenergy Corporation: key facts ................................................................................................... 20

Table 8: GreenField Ethanol Inc.: key facts ................................................................................................................. 21

Table 9: Canada size of population (million), 2006–10 ................................................................................................ 22

Table 10: Canada gdp (constant 2000 prices, $ billion), 2006–10 ............................................................................... 22

Table 11: Canada gdp (current prices, $ billion), 2006–10........................................................................................... 22

Table 12: Canada inflation, 2006–10 ........................................................................................................................... 23

Table 13: Canada consumer price index (absolute), 2006–10 ..................................................................................... 23

Table 14: Canada exchange rate, 2006–10 ................................................................................................................. 23

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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Canada biofuel production industry value: $ million, 2006–10 ........................................................................ 8

Figure 2: Canada biofuel production industry volume: thousand tons, 2006–10 ............................................................ 9

Figure 3: Canada biofuel production industry geography segmentation: % share, by value, 2010 .............................. 10

Figure 4: Canada biofuel production industry value forecast: $ million, 2010–15 ........................................................ 11

Figure 5: Canada biofuel production industry volume forecast: thousand tons, 2010–15 ............................................ 12

Figure 6: Forces driving competition in the biofuel production industry in Canada, 2010 ............................................. 13

Figure 7: Drivers of buyer power in the biofuel production industry in Canada, 2010 .................................................. 14

Figure 8: Drivers of supplier power in the biofuel production industry in Canada, 2010 ............................................... 15

Figure 9: Factors influencing the likelihood of new entrants in the biofuel production industry in Canada, 2010 ......... 16

Figure 10: Factors influencing the threat of substitutes in the biofuel production industry in Canada, 2010 ................ 17

Figure 11: Drivers of degree of rivalry in the biofuel production industry in Canada, 2010 .......................................... 18

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MARKET OVERVIEW
Market definition
The biofuel production industry comprises the sale of the alternative fuels biodiesel and ethanol. The volume represents
the production of biofuels in a country or region. Biodiesel and ethanol are valued at global producer prices. All currency
conversions used in the creation of this report have been calculated using constant 2010 average annual exchange
rates.

For the purposes of this report, the Americas consists of North America and South America.

North America consists of Canada, Mexico, and the United States.

South America comprises Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Venezuela.

Market analysis
The Canadian biofuels production industry experienced very strong double digit growth in 2007 and 2008 as a greater
emphasis began to be placed on green energy. There was however a significant slowing of the growth rate in 2009,
before the market fell in to mild decline in 2010. Marginal growth is forecast for 2011 before strong, double digit growth
returns in 2012.

The Canadian biofuels production industry had total revenue of $556.4 million in 2010, representing a compound annual
growth rate (CAGR) of 38.7% for the period spanning 2006-2010. In comparison, the US and Brazilian industries grew
with CAGRs of 22.2% and 13.4% respectively, over the same period, to reach respective values of $19,984.9 million and
$13,155.4 million in 2010.

Industry production volumes increased with a CAGR of 40.9% between 2006 and 2010, to reach a total of 942.4
thousand tons in 2010. The industry's volume is expected to rise to 1,344.4 thousand tons by the end of 2015,
representing a CAGR of 7.4% for the 2010-2015 period.

Ethanol production had the highest volume in the Canadian biofuels production industry in 2010, with 849.5 thousand
tons, equivalent to 90.1% of the industry's overall volume. In comparison, production of biodiesel had a volume of 92.9
thousand tons in 2010, equating to 9.9% of the industry total.

The performance of the industry is forecast to decelerate, with an anticipated CAGR of 9% for the five-year period 2010-
2015, which is expected to drive the industry to a value of $854.5 million by the end of 2015. Comparatively, the US and
Brazilian industries will grow with CAGRs of 8.2% and 7.0% respectively, over the same period, to reach respective
values of $29,705 million and $18,488.8 million in 2015.

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MARKET DATA
Market value
The Canadian biofuel production industry shrank by 0.6% in 2010 to reach a value of $556.4 million.

The compound annual growth rate of the industry in the period 2006–10 was 38.7%.

Table 1: Canada biofuel production industry value: $ million, 2006–10

Year $ million C$ million € million % Growth

2006 150.5 155.1 113.4
2007 403.6 416.0 304.0 168.1%
2008 551.3 568.2 415.2 36.6%
2009 559.6 576.8 421.5 1.5%
2010 556.4 573.5 419.1 (0.6%)

CAGR: 2006–10 38.7%

SOURCE: MARKETLINE MARKETLINE

Figure 1: Canada biofuel production industry value: $ million, 2006–10

SOURCE: MARKETLINE MARKETLINE

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Market volume
The Canadian biofuel production industry shrank by 1.4% in 2010 to reach a volume of 942.4 thousand tons.

The compound annual growth rate of the industry in the period 2006–10 was 40.9%.

Table 2: Canada biofuel production industry volume: thousand tons, 2006–10

Year thousand tons % Growth

2006 239.0
2007 707.9 196.2%
2008 827.5 16.9%
2009 956.2 15.6%
2010 942.4 (1.4%)

CAGR: 2006–10 40.9%

SOURCE: MARKETLINE MARKETLINE

Figure 2: Canada biofuel production industry volume: thousand tons, 2006–10

SOURCE: MARKETLINE MARKETLINE

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MARKET SEGMENTATION
Geography segmentation
Canada accounts for 1.6% of the Americas biofuel production industry value.

The United States accounts for a further 56.5% of the Americas industry.

Table 3: Canada biofuel production industry geography segmentation: $ million, 2010

Geography 2010 %
United States 19,984.9 56.5
Canada 556.4 1.6
Mexico 7.5 0.0
Rest of the Americas 14,852.1 42.0

Total 35,400.9 100%

SOURCE: MARKETLINE MARKETLINE

Figure 3: Canada biofuel production industry geography segmentation: % share, by value, 2010

SOURCE: MARKETLINE MARKETLINE

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MARKET OUTLOOK
Market value forecast
In 2015, the Canadian biofuel production industry is forecast to have a value of $854.5 million, an increase of 53.6%
since 2010.

The compound annual growth rate of the industry in the period 2010–15 is predicted to be 9%.

Table 4: Canada biofuel production industry value forecast: $ million, 2010–15

Year $ million C$ million € million % Growth

2010 556.4 573.5 419.1 (0.6%)
2011 557.9 575.0 420.2 0.3%
2012 654.5 674.6 493.0 17.3%
2013 729.0 751.4 549.1 11.4%
2014 788.4 812.7 593.9 8.1%
2015 854.5 880.8 643.7 8.4%

CAGR: 2010–15 9.0%

SOURCE: MARKETLINE MARKETLINE

Figure 4: Canada biofuel production industry value forecast: $ million, 2010–15

SOURCE: MARKETLINE MARKETLINE

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Market volume forecast
In 2015, the Canadian biofuel production industry is forecast to have a volume of 1,344.4 thousand tons, an increase of
42.7% since 2010.

The compound annual growth rate of the industry in the period 2010–15 is predicted to be 7.4%.

Table 5: Canada biofuel production industry volume forecast: thousand tons, 2010–15

Year thousand tons % Growth

2010 942.4 (1.4%)
2011 980.7 4.1%
2012 1,071.6 9.3%
2013 1,162.5 8.5%
2014 1,253.5 7.8%
2015 1,344.4 7.3%

CAGR: 2010–15 7.4%

SOURCE: MARKETLINE MARKETLINE

Figure 5: Canada biofuel production industry volume forecast: thousand tons, 2010–15

SOURCE: MARKETLINE MARKETLINE

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FIVE FORCES ANALYSIS
The biofuel production market will be analyzed taking biodiesel and bioethanol producers as players. The key buyers will
be taken as fuel and energy distributors, and suppliers of feedstock and specialized machinery as the key suppliers.

Summary
Figure 6: Forces driving competition in the biofuel production industry in Canada, 2010

SOURCE: MARKETLINE MARKETLINE

The Canadian biofuel industry has experienced rapid growth in recent years as governments look to incentivize
environmentally friendly alternatives to fossil fuels. These incentives have come primarily in the form of tax breaks and
investment.The industry’s dynamic growth in recent years has been down, in part, to the fact that it is still very much a
young industry. With the emphasis, and in some case legislation, being placed on green energy, strong growth is
expected to continue. This makes the industry attractive to prospective new entrants, although the presence of
established players such as BIOX Corporation and Canadian Bioenergy Corporation may act as a deterrent. The threat
of substitutes is very strong with traditional fossil fuels such as petrol and diesel readily available, often at a lower cost.
The expanding nature of the market eases rivalry to some degree.

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Buyer power
Figure 7: Drivers of buyer power in the biofuel production industry in Canada, 2010

SOURCE: MARKETLINE MARKETLINE

The biofuel production industry is heavily reliant on the fuel distribution market as a buyer. With consumers becoming
more environmentally conscious and the cost of traditional fuels rising, demand for alternative fuels such as biodiesel
and bioethanol at the pumps is increasing. In order to meet this demand, the major fuel retailers must buy supplies from
producers. The main issue facing producers is that these retailers are often large multi-national companies as they have
the infrastructure in place (forecourts etc) to make the fuel readily available on a large scale and also that demand still
lags far behind that for traditional fuels. Consequently, the retailers are able to exercise bargaining power over the often
smaller biofuel producers as they act as a quasi-marketer of the producers’ product. Whilst it is true that independent
service stations often offer biofuels, particularly in North America, they do not offer an opportunity for producers to sell
large amounts of stock. Overall buyer power is strong.

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Supplier power
Figure 8: Drivers of supplier power in the biofuel production industry in Canada, 2010

SOURCE: MARKETLINE MARKETLINE

The biofuel production industry relies on a reliable supply of feedstock including sugar, maize, soy and tallow. Key
suppliers are therefore farmers and agri-food companies. Supplier power varies depending on the size of supplier
(independent farmer or large intensive farm). Much of the crop used in the production process comes form intensive
farming with large areas of land in countries such as Colombia, Brazil and the United States dedicated to growing crops
for biofuel production. This boosts supplier power. Furthermore, large farms and agri-food companies are the only ones
able to supply sufficient amounts for the production process. However, crop growing is not highly specialized and so
there is an abundance of potential suppliers meaning that biofuel producers can easily switch supplier without incurring
great costs. This reduces supplier power. A further threat to suppliers is the risk of biofuel producers diversifying and
providing their own feedstock. Diester Industrie is one such example as it owned by French agri-food group Sofiproteol
and also operates a joint venture with American-based agricompany Bunge Limited. Overall supplier power is moderate.

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New entrants
Figure 9: Factors influencing the likelihood of new entrants in the biofuel production industry in
Canada, 2010

SOURCE: MARKETLINE MARKETLINE

Biofuel production requires a highly specialized set-up, namely a large plant with expensive, specialized equipment.
Establishing such a plant is time consuming and requires significant investment and government licensing. Furthermore,
the production process is still an expensive one and consequently, a company must be able to produce and sell large
quantities to make it financially viable. These requirements can act as a deterrent to potential new entrants. However, the
industry is rapidly expanding, and legislation such as Canada’s goal of reducing carbon emissions by 17%, should
ensure that the industry continues to grow quickly. This provides an opportunity for new players to successfully enter the
market. This is attractive to new entrants and start-ups and so increases the possibility of new entrants to the industry.
The ready availability of supplies and the fact that the production process is not patented also keeps the barriers to entry
low. Overall, the threat of new entrants is strong.

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Threat of substitutes
Figure 10: Factors influencing the threat of substitutes in the biofuel production industry in
Canada, 2010

SOURCE: MARKETLINE MARKETLINE

Despite recent strong growth in the industry, demand for biofuel still lags behind that for fossil fuels such as petrol and
diesel and these are the obvious substitutes. A company which wished to switch from using fossil fuels to biofuel for
power would likely incur no cost for doing so, other than the cost of breaking a supply contract that may be in place.
Therefore the cost of switching can be assessed as low. However, with several governments - particularly in Europe -
withdrawing tax breaks, the cost of biodiesel and bioethanol is often noticeably higher than that of petrol and diesel. This
means that fossil fuels are a cheaper alternative which increases the threat of substitutes. As fossil fuels and biofuel
share many of the same properties, the former serve as a beneficial substitute. Overall, the threat of substitutes is
assessed as strong.

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Degree of rivalry
Figure 11: Drivers of degree of rivalry in the biofuel production industry in Canada, 2010

SOURCE: MARKETLINE MARKETLINE

The Canadian biofuel market has experienced extremely strong growth in recent years and is expected to continue to do
so as greater emphasis is placed on green energy. This alleviates rivalry to some degree as players can increase
revenues without impinging on the business of rivals. Some biofuel producers dominate in one area, such as BIOX
Corporation (biodiesel), but are not active in another and as such, certain sectors are more competitive than others. As
the biofuel industry matures and growth rates slow, rivalry will intensify but for the moment, strong growth means that it is
assessed as moderate overall.

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LEADING COMPANIES
BIOX Corporation
Table 6: BIOX Corporation: key facts

125 Lakeshore Road East, Suite 200, Oakville, Ontario L6J 1H3
Head office:
CAN
Telephone: 1 905 337 4983
Fax: 1 905 337 4999
Website: www.bioxcorp.com
Financial year-end: September
Ticker: BX
Stock exchange: Toronto

SOURCE: COMPANY WEBSITE MARKETLINE

BIOX Corporation is a renewable energy company that designs, builds, owns and operates biodiesel production facilities.
The company owns and operates a biodiesel production facility in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada with a capacity of 67 million
liters per year. BIOX Corporation also produces biodiesel utilizing feedstock including, pure seed oils, animal and
vegetable oils. The company primarily operates in Canada, where it is headquartered in Vancouver.

Key Metrics
The company announced turnover of C$48.9 million for the financial year ended September 2010, a year-on-year
increase of 0.82%. Net loss for the same period was C$16 million, as compared to a loss of C$5.6 million the previous
year.

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Canadian Bioenergy Corporation
Table 7: Canadian Bioenergy Corporation: key facts

Suite 310, 221 West Esplanade, North Vancouver, British Columbia V7M
Head office:
3J3 CAN
Telephone: 1 604 960 0354
Fax: 1 604 960 0356
Website: www.canadianbioenergy.com

SOURCE: COMPANY WEBSITE MARKETLINE

Canadian Bioenergy is a privately held company engaged in the marketing and distribution of biodiesel.

The company offers its products to the commercial road fleets and school district fleets; municipal and government
fleets; heavy machinery and off road machinery; personal cars and light trucks; marine, and lubricity additives. It is also
involved in participating in and developing the biofuel and biomass heat and power projects.

The company primarily operates in Canada, where it is headquartered in North Vancouver.

Key Metrics
As a privately owned company, Canadian Bioenergy Corporation is not obliged to publish its financial results.

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GreenField Ethanol Inc.
Table 8: GreenField Ethanol Inc.: key facts

Head office: 275 Bloomfield Road Chatham, Ontario N7M 5J5

Telephone: 1 (519) 436 1130
Fax: 1 (519) 436 1595
Website: www.greenfieldethanol.com

SOURCE: COMPANY WEBSITE MARKETLINE

GreenField Ethanol, Inc. is an ethanol company that produces industrial and beverage alcohol, fuel ethanol, and
distillers’ grains from agricultural, forestry, and municipal waste. The company’s Cellulosic Ethanol division is developing
two processes for making next generation biofuel from agricultural, forestry and municipal waste. The company operates
seven facilities in Canada in Chatham, Hensall, Johnstown, Tiverton, Varennes, Boucherville and Brampton. The site in
Chatham currently produces around 130 million liters of fuel ethanol per year, while the sites at Tiverton and Varennes
produce 3.5 million and 120 million liters per year respectively. Once fully operational, the facility at Johnstown is
expected to produce up to 200 million liters of fuel ethanol per year. In addition to these sites, the company also operates
two facilities in the USA (Shelbyville, KT and Brookfield, CT).

Key Metrics
No financial information is available for this company.

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MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
Country Data

Table 9: Canada size of population (million), 2006–10

Year Population (million) % Growth

2006 32.6 1.0%
2007 32.9 1.1%
2008 33.3 1.2%
2009 33.7 1.2%
2010 34.1 1.2%

SOURCE: MARKETLINE MARKETLINE

Table 10: Canada gdp (constant 2000 prices, $ billion), 2006–10

Year Constant 2000 Prices, $ billion % Growth

2006 845.1 2.8%
2007 863.7 2.2%
2008 869.7 0.7%
2009 845.6 (2.8%)
2010 872.7 3.2%

SOURCE: MARKETLINE MARKETLINE

Table 11: Canada gdp (current prices, $ billion), 2006–10

Year Current Prices, $ billion % Growth

2006 1,265.8 12.1%
2007 1,395.4 10.2%
2008 1,448.0 3.8%
2009 1,318.1 (9.0%)
2010 1,535.7 16.5%

SOURCE: MARKETLINE MARKETLINE

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 Table 12: Canada inflation, 2006–10

Year Inflation Rate (%)

2006 2.0%
2007 2.1%
2008 2.4%
2009 0.3%
2010 1.7%

SOURCE: MARKETLINE MARKETLINE

Table 13: Canada consumer price index (absolute), 2006–10

Year Consumer Price Index (2000 = 100)

2006 114.4
2007 116.8
2008 119.6
2009 120.0
2010 122.1

SOURCE: MARKETLINE MARKETLINE

Table 14: Canada exchange rate, 2006–10

Year Exchange rate ($/C$) Exchange rate (€/C$)

2006 1.1346 1.4236
2007 1.0744 1.4701
2008 1.0667 1.5608
2009 1.1417 1.5876
2010 1.0308 1.3684

SOURCE: MARKETLINE MARKETLINE

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APPENDIX
Methodology
MarketLine Industry Profiles draw on extensive primary and secondary research, all aggregated, analyzed, cross-
checked and presented in a consistent and accessible style.

Review of in-house databases – Created using 250,000+ industry interviews and consumer surveys and supported by
analysis from industry experts using highly complex modeling & forecasting tools, MarketLine’s in-house databases
provide the foundation for all related industry profiles

Preparatory research – We also maintain extensive in-house databases of news, analyst commentary, company
profiles and macroeconomic & demographic information, which enable our researchers to build an accurate market
overview

Definitions – Market definitions are standardized to allow comparison from country to country. The parameters of each
definition are carefully reviewed at the start of the research process to ensure they match the requirements of both the
market and our clients

Extensive secondary research activities ensure we are always fully up-to-date with the latest industry events and
trends

MarketLine aggregates and analyzes a number of secondary information sources, including:

- National/Governmental statistics

- International data (official international sources)

- National and International trade associations

- Broker and analyst reports

- Company Annual Reports

- Business information libraries and databases

Modeling & forecasting tools – MarketLine has developed powerful tools that allow quantitative and qualitative data to
be combined with related macroeconomic and demographic drivers to create market models and forecasts, which can
then be refined according to specific competitive, regulatory and demand-related factors

Continuous quality control ensures that our processes and profiles remain focused, accurate and up-to-date

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Industry associations
Energy Information Administration
1000 Independence Avenue, SW Washington, DC 20585, US
Tel.: 1 202 586 8800
Fax: 1 202 586 9753
www.eia.doe.gov
Renewable Energy Association
Capital Tower, 91 Waterloo Road, London SE1 8RT, UK
Tel.: 44 020 7925 3570
Fax: 44 020 7925 2715
www.r-e-a.net
Canadian Renewable Fuels Association
350 Sparks Street, Suite 605, Ottawa, Ontario, K1R 7S8, Canada
Tel.: 1 613 594.5528
Fax: 1 613 5943076
www.greenfuels.org

Related MarketLine research

Industry Profile
Biofuel Production in Brazil

Biofuel Production in North America

Biofuel Production in South America

Biofuel Production in France

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