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Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (Sunp In) : Q1FY21 Result Update
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (Sunp In) : Q1FY21 Result Update
(SUNP IN)
Rating: REDUCE | CMP: Rs532 | TP: Rs479
Change in Estimates
US sales declined 25% QoQ to US$282m led by 33% /18% QoQ decline in
Current Previous
Taro and non-Taro sales (led by fall in specialty product sales)
FY22E FY23E FY22E FY23E
Rating REDUCE HOLD Net loss of Rs16.5bn due to Taro DOJ settlement and provision
Target Price 479 479
Sales (Rs. m) 3,76,111 4,13,744 3,76,111 4,13,744
% Chng. - - SUNP 1QFY21 revenue were lower than our estimate because of US specialty
EBITDA (Rs. m) 82,556 90,817 82,556 90,817 and Taro sales while adj. EBITDA margin positively surprised at 23.1% (PLe
% Chng. - -
EPS (Rs.) 22.8 26.7 22.8 26.7 :20.4%) due to 1) lower R&D spend (5.6% of sales v/s 6.4% QoQ) and 2) lower
% Chng. - - SGA costs led by travel restriction on employees and lower marketing
expense (21% of sales v/s 29% QoQ). We believe even after Taro’s settlement
Key Financials - Consolidated with DOJ for generic price matters, US biz still has several concern related to
Y/e Mar FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E
1) inconsistent performance of US specialty products, 2) Taro’s declining
Sales (Rs. bn) 323 342 376 414
EBITDA (Rs. bn) 65 75 83 91 revenue trend and gross margin due to erosion in derma portfolio, 3) lack of
Margin (%) 20.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 key approvals due to regulatory issues in Halol and 4) further R&D in Ilumya
PAT (Rs. bn) 34 47 55 64
for new indications. With only India formulations contributing to growth while
EPS (Rs.) 14.3 19.7 22.8 26.7
Gr. (%) 15.0 37.6 15.8 17.1 other regions lacking in consistent performance, we downgrade our rating to
DPS (Rs.) 5.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 Reduce (earlier Hold) but retain TP at Rs479 (PE 21x of FY22E).
Yield (%) 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.4
RoE (%) 7.9 11.3 13.5 14.0
RoCE (%) 8.5 10.6 12.4 13.6 Revenue lower but EBITDAM higher due to travel restriction and lower
EV/Sales (x) 3.8 3.7 3.3 2.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 19.1 16.9 14.9 13.1
marketing spend: Revenue declined 10% YoY and 8% QoQ to Rs74.6bn (PLe
PE (x) 37.2 27.0 23.3 19.9 Rs83.5bn) while adj. EBITDA declined 5% YoY and grew 37% QoQ to Rs17.2bn
P/BV (x) 2.8 3.3 3.0 2.6
(PLe 16.0bn). Adj. EBITDA margin was 23.1% (PLe 20.4%) v/s 22% YoY and
15.5% QoQ. PBT declined 8% YoY while QoQ grew 73% to Rs14.4b (PLe
Key Data SUN.BO | SUNP IN Rs11.3bn). Adj. PAT (before extra ord. item and MI) was Rs12.0bn (PLe Rs8.6bn).
52-W High / Low Rs.541 / Rs.312 There was exceptional loss and provision made of Rs36.3bn due to Taro DOJ
Sensex / Nifty 37,607 / 11,073
Market Cap Rs.1,276bn/ $ 17,051m matter which led SUNP to report net loss of Rs16.5bn.
Shares Outstanding 2,399m
3M Avg. Daily Value Rs.10143.82m
Conference call and key highlights:
Shareholding Pattern (%) US Formulations (Including Taro): Total US sales declined 25% QoQ to
Promoter’s 54.69 US$282m led by 33% QoQ decline of Taro (US$118m) while specialty
Foreign 12.70
Domestic Institution 20.10 revenues were US$78m v/s US$126m Q4FY20. Taro gross profit and margin
Public & Others 12.51
were all time low at US$65m and 55% of sales. Specialty business was
Promoter Pledge (Rs bn) 10.35
impacted due to lockdown and primarily due to lower revenue from Levulan
and Ilumya. Even with relaxation in lockdown, many medical practitioners for
Stock Performance (%)
ophthalmic and derma have not returned to their clinics.
1M 6M 12M
Absolute 12.4 22.4 24.6
Relative 4.4 32.6 24.2 Weak outlook on US Generic: SUNP highlighted pricing environment would
continue to remain challenging (specially for Taro business). While there are
Surajit Pal 95 pending ANDAs, commercialization of these products would be challenging
surajitpal@plindia.com | 91-22-66322259 as important products are filed from Halol facility.
Tausif Shaikh
tausifshaikh@plindia.com | 91-22-66322246
August 2, 2020 1
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries
Halol regulatory update: In Q3FY20, Halol plant went under cGMP inspection
and received 8 observations including one issue of data integrity. The plant is
under OAI status and its remediation work is likely to complete soon. SUNP
continues to update USFDA on regular basis but the regulator hasn’t given any
indication of near-term inspection (virtual).
India Business: Growth was only 3% YoY due to COVID led lockdown. SUNP
launched 2 products under lockdown and expanded its field force as per
guidance. Two products related to COVID are under clinical trial for Indian
market only and the recruitment process for patients has been completed.
From June FY21, medical practitioners are gradually return to field visit of
doctors and distributors.
EM: Revenue were US$173m v/s US$187m QoQ. Q4FY20.The decline was
led by South Africa tender biz and lower realization from currency devaluation
while other regions were stable.
ROW and API business: ROW revenue was US$136m v/s US$155m QoQ
due to lower biz in Japan, while API segment grew 20% YoY.
1Q21 Result Overview (Rs mn): Revenue lower due to US biz, PAT impacted due to one-time settlement.
Y/e March Q1FY21 Q1FY20 YoY gr. (%) Q4FY20 FY21E FY20 YoY gr. (%)
Net Sales 74,672 82,593 (9.6) 80,780 3,22,018 3,23,252 (0.4)
Raw Material 19,696 24,578 (19.9) 23,048 84,006 92,305 (9.0)
% of Net Sales 26.4 29.8 28.5 26.1 28.6
Personnel Cost 17,590 15,404 14.2 16,519 67,060 63,624 5.4
% of Net Sales 23.6 18.7 20.4 20.8 19.7
Others 20,131 24,479 (17.8) 28,652 1,02,992 1,02,549 0.4
% of Net Sales 27.0 29.6 35.5 32.0 31.7
Total Expenditure 57,417 64,461 (10.9) 68,219 2,54,058 2,58,477 (1.7)
EBITDA 17,255 18,132 (4.8) 12,561 67,960 64,774 4.9
Margin (%) 23.1 22.0 15.5 21.1 20.0
Depreciation 4,959 4,571 8.5 5,754 21,037 20,528 2.5
EBIT 12,295 13,560 (9.3) 6,807 46,924 44,247 6.1
Other Income 2,719 3,281 (17.1) 2,091 10,139 11,483 (11.7)
Interest 520 1,041 (50.1) 518 2,993 3,027 (1.1)
PBT 14,494 15,801 (8.3) 8,381 54,070 52,702 2.6
Total Taxes 2,459 1,461 68.4 831 9,187 8,228 11.7
ETR (%) 17.0 9.2 9.9 17.0 15.6
PAT 12,035 14,340 (16.1) 7,550 44,883 44,474 0.9
Minority Interest (7,742) 1,139 945 (5,127) 4,219
Exceptional items (36,333) 674 (2,606) - (2,606)
Adj Pat (16,556) 13,875 (219.3) 3,998 50,010 37,649 32.8
Source: Company, PL
August 2, 2020 2
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries
Source: Company, PL
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q2FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Q1FY17
Q3FY17
Q4FY18
Q1FY20
Q3FY20
Source: Company, PL
August 2, 2020 3
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries
Q2FY16
Q3FY16
Q4FY16
Q2FY17
Q3FY17
Q4FY17
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Q1FY16
Q1FY17
Q1FY18
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q2FY20
Source: Company, PL
77%
76%
74%
73%
72%
200 90%
68%
68%
67%
66%
66%
66%
65%
64%
63%
180 80%
58%
55%
160 70%
140 60%
120 50%
100
80 40%
60 30%
40 20%
20 10%
- 0%
Q1FY17
Q2FY17
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Q3FY17
Q2FY18
Q1FY19
Q4FY19
Q3FY20
Source: Company, PL
- -10.0
Q3FY17
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q4FY18
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY17
Q2FY17
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q1FY21
Source: Company, PL
August 2, 2020 4
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries
30,000 40.0
33.4 34.3
28.9 35.0
25,000
30.0
20,000 22.621.023.2 22.0 23.1
20.0 21.2 21.1 20.220.4 25.0
18.1 17.1
15,000 15.5 20.0
12.7
15.0
10,000
10.0
5,000
5.0
- -
Q1FY17
Q2FY17
Q3FY17
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Source: Company, PL
8,000 12.0
7,000 9.6 9.2
8.8 10.0
7.7 8.1 8.1
6,000 7.1 7.0 7.4 7.0 7.6
7.0 6.5 6.8 6.4 6.6 6.4 8.0
5,000 5.9 6.0 5.6
4,000 4.9 6.0
3,000
4.0
2,000
2.0
1,000
- -
Q1FY16
Q2FY16
Q4FY16
Q2FY17
Q3FY17
Q1FY18
Q3FY18
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q4FY19
Q2FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Q3FY16
Q1FY17
Q4FY17
Q2FY18
Q4FY18
Q3FY19
Q1FY20
August 2, 2020 5
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries
Financials
Income Statement (Rs m) Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m)
Y/e Mar FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E Y/e Mar FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E
EBIT 44,247 52,555 58,330 68,721 Capital Work In Progress 12,203 11,825 11,527 11,303
Margin (%) 13.7 15.4 15.5 16.6 Goodwill 64,815 64,815 64,815 64,815
Non-Current Investments 53,513 48,390 46,025 54,471
Net Interest 2,993 3,116 1,098 786 Net Deferred tax assets 31,172 31,775 32,462 33,261
Other Income 11,483 10,909 11,454 12,027 Other Non-Current Assets 40,043 38,971 40,296 41,703
August 2, 2020 6
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries
August 2, 2020 7
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries
(Rs)
No. Date Rating TP (Rs.) Share Price (Rs.)
700
1 31-Jul-20 Hold 479 511
Jul - 20
Aug - 17
Aug - 18
Feb - 18
Jan - 19
Jan - 20
7 07-Feb-20 Reduce 412 431
8 04-Feb-20 Reduce 396 418
9 09-Jan-20 Reduce 396 439
10 03-Jan-20 Reduce 396 445
August 2, 2020 8
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries
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