G14FOS University of Nottingham

Coursework 3: Solutions

1. The given fact implies that

n
!
1 X
P χ2n−1,α/2 ≤ 2 (Yi − Ȳ )2 ≤ χ2n−1,1−α/2 =1−α
σ i=1
Pn Pn !
2 2
i=1 (Yi − Ȳ ) i=1 (Yi − Ȳ )
⇐⇒ P ≤ σ2 ≤ = 1 − α.
χ2n−1,1−α/2 χ2n−1,α/2
Thus, a 100(1 − α)% confidence interval for σ 2 is
Pn Pn !
2 2
i=1 (Yi − Ȳ ) (Yi − Ȳ )
2
, i=12 .
χn−1,1−α/2 χn−1,α/2

2. (a) Assume that the breaking strength is normally distributed with σ = 0.5. A random
sample of size n = 50 is collected and the mean breaking strength of the sample is
found to be X̄ = 7.8. We want to test the following:
H0 : µ = 8.0 vs H1 : µ 6= 8.0 at α = 0.01.

Decision Rule: Reject H0 if |Z| =  x̄−µ  > z 0.01 .
 0
√σ 2
n

   
 x̄ − 8   7.8 − 8 
|Z| =  0.5  =  0.5  = 2.8284 > z0.005 = 2.5758
   
 √50   √50 

Consequently, we will reject H0 at α = 0.01 and conclude that the mean breaking
strength is not 8.0 kg.
p-value = P(|Z| > 2.8284) = 2P(Z > 2.8284) = 2(0.00238) = 0.00476, where
P(Z > 2.8284) is found by linearly interpolating the values for P(Z > 2.8782) =
0.002 and P(Z > 2.7478)= 0.003.
(b) Assume that miles driven is normally distributed. A random sample of size n = 25
is collected with X̄ = 12,000 and s = 3900. We want to test the following:
H0 : µ ≤ 10,000 vs H1 : µ > 10, 000 at α = 0.05.
Decision Rule: Reject H0 if
x̄ − µ0
T = > tn−1,α .
√s
n

1
 x̄ − 10000 12000 − 10000
T = = = 2.564 > t24,0.05 = 1.711
√s 3900
√
n 25

Consequently, we will reject H0 at α = 0.05 and conclude that drivers travel on

average more than 10,000 miles per year.
p-value = P(T24 > 2.564) = 1 - P(T24 ≤ 2.564) = 1 - 0.9912 = 0.0088 where
P(T24 ≤ 2.564) is found by linearly interpolating the values for P(T24 ≤ 2.492) =
0.990 and P(T24 ≤ 2.797)= 0.995.

3. (a) The constant k is chosen so that P (reject H0 | H0 is true) = 0.05. Now, under H0 ,
θ = 21 so X̄ ∼ N ( 21 , 4n
1
) approximately, and

1
α = P (reject H0 | H0 is true) = P (X̄ ≤ k | θ = )
  2
X̄ − 21 k − 21
=P  q ≤ q  = 0.05.
1 1
4n 4n

p
Now, under H0 , (X̄ − 12 )/ 1/(4n) ∼ N (0, 1) approximately, so
1
k− 2
q ≈ Φ−1 (0.05) = −1.645
1
4n

1 1.645
=⇒ k ≈ 2
− √ .
2 n
(b) For 0 ≤ θ ≤ 21 ,

1
power = γ(θ) = Pθ (reject H0 | H1 is true) = Pθ (X̄ ≤ k | 0 ≤ θ ≤ )
! 2
X̄ − θ k−θ
= Pθ p ≤p .
θ(1 − θ/n θ(1 − θ)/n

Now X̄ ∼ N (θ, θ(1 − θ)/n) approximately, so

X̄ − θ
p ∼ N (0, 1) approximately.
θ(1 − θ)/n

2
 Thus,
!
k−θ
γ(θ) ≈ Φ p
θ(1 − θ)/n
1
!
2
− 1.645
√ −θ
2 n
=Φ p
θ(1 − θ)/n
√ !
( 12 − θ) n − 0.8225
=Φ p (0 ≤ θ ≤ 12 ).
θ(1 − θ)

(c) We require γ(0.4) ≥ 0.9, i.e.

 √ 
(0.5 − 0.4) n − 0.8225
Φ √ ≥ 0.9
0.4 × 0.6
√
0.1 n − 0.8225
⇐⇒ √ ≥ Φ−1 (0.9).
0.24

Now, using Neave Table 2.3(b), Φ−1 (0.9) = 1.2816, so we require

√
0.1 n − 0.8225
√ ≥ 1.2816
0.24
√ √
⇐⇒ n ≥ (1.2816 0.24 + 0.8225)/0.1
√
⇐⇒ n ≥ 100(1.2816 0.24 + 0.8225)2 = 210.35.

Thus we need a sample of size 211.