Home Work 1

CE 463: Probabilistic and Statistical Methods in Civil Engineering

Course Instructor: Prof. Gopal R. Patil
Date: 15-Sep-20

1) Two cities 1 and 2 are connected by route A, and Route B connects cities 2 and 3 as shown
in fig. below. Let us denote the eastbound lane as A1 and B1, and westward lanes as A2 and
B2. Suppose the probability is 95% that one of the two lanes in route A will not require
major resurfacing of the pavement for at least 2 years, the corresponding probability for a
lane in route B is only 85%.

Route A
1 3

2 Route B

a) Determine the probability that route A will require major resurfacing in the next 2 years.
Do the same for route B. Assume that if one lane of a route needs major resurfacing,
the chance that the other lane of the same route will also need resurfacing is 3 times its
original probability.
b) Assuming that the need for resurfacing in routes A and B are statistically independent,
what is the probability that the road between cities 1 and 3 will require major
resurfacing in two years?

2) A factory has three machines, M1, M2 and M3, with proportion of production from these
machines 50%, 30% and 20% respectively. The past experience shows percentage
defectives from these machines as 3%, 4% and 5% respectively. What is the probability
that a product selected randomly is defective? Given a product is defective what is the
probability that it is manufactured by machine 2?

3) Your friend is going to climb on to the top of a human pyramid tomorrow to break the
earthen pot (matki) in order to celebrate Janmashtami. While discussing with him, he boasts
saying, “50% of the time I have broken the pot while it was raining heavily.” You know
that most of the days in August-September are of heavy rains (40% of the days). However,
he being your friend, you know he has a poor strike rate (1 out of 10 times he tries, he can
break the pot) and only one chance is allowed. What is the probability that he will break
the matki tomorrow?

4) Prof. David, who commutes to IIT Campus daily, wants to park his car outside Civil
Engineering department building. Every day, Prof. David checks the parking lots A, B,
and C in the sequence, as shown in figure below, and parks his car as soon as he finds an
empty space. Only these three parking lots are available and no street parking is allowed,
among which, lots A and B are free and lot C is metered.
 From prior statistical observations, the probability of getting space on each
weekday morning in lots A, B, and C are 0.20, 0.15, and 0.80 respectively. However, if lot
A is full, the probability that Prof. David will find a space in lot B is only 0.05. Also, if
both lots A and B are full, Prof. David will only have a probability of 40% of getting a
parking space in lot C. Determine the following:

a) The probability that Prof. David will not find free parking on a weekday morning.
b) The probability that Prof. David will be able to park his car on campus on a weekday
morning.
c) If Prof. David successfully parked his car on campus on a weekday morning, what is
the probability that his parking is free?

Civil
Engg.
Lot ‘C’ Dept.
metered

Lot ‘A’
Aerospace free
Engg.
Lot ‘B’ Dept.
Electrical
free
Engg.
Dept.

5) Mr. Erwin Rommel, a final year undergraduate student at IIT Bombay, sat for the
placements. The Placement Manager (PM) called him to the Placement Office and kept
three offer letters (numbered 1, 2 and 3) from three different companies in front of
him, turned upside down. Two of them are from the companies with less package
and bad work-life balance and one of them was from the company with good package
and better work-life balance. The PM knows which offer letter is from which company but
wanted to test Erwin’s luck and hence PM asked him to select one of the offer letter
randomly. As soon as Erwin pointed at letter 1, PM flipped one of the other two offer letters
and said, “Oops! This company’s package is very low.” And PM asked Erwin if he still
wants to pick up letter 1 or would like to switch to letter 2? Using the probability theory,
calculate if switching to letter 2 would be beneficial for Erwin or not and Justify.