25 June 2018

Update | Sector: Automobiles

Tata Motors
BSE SENSEX S&P CNX
35,690 10,822 CMP: INR308 TP: INR431 (+40%) Buy
Motilal Oswal values your support in Margin improvement driven by RM cost and operating lev.
the Asiamoney Brokers Poll 2018 for
India Research, Sales and Trading
Capex for FY19-21 pegged at GBP4.5b pa; FCF negative till FY20
team. We request your ballot.
JLR hosted its first ever ‘Investors Day’ where the entire senior management discussed in
length the business strategies and focus areas (Click here for the presentation). The
management discussed its strategy to a) transit from internal combustion engine (ICE) to
Autonomous, Connected, Electric and Shared (ACES) mobility era, b) margin
improvement through efficient sourcing, MLA platform and operating leverage, c) stable
Stock Info capex at GBP4.5b pa over FY19-21, and d) preparedness for future emission norms. Key
Bloomberg TTMT IN highlights from the meet:
Equity Shares (m) 3,396.6  I-Pace-Innovations drives performance; waiting period of 6 months in UK: I-
52-Week Range (INR) 468 / 282
Pace UK supplies will start from next week, as it was training its dealer
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) -3/-32/-46
M.Cap. (INR b) 982.0
network for EV launch. It has order book of 6 months, with launch in other
M.Cap. (USD b) 15.4 markets in coming months. Also, recently launched RR/RR Sport PHEV has got
Avg Val, INRm 3731.0 better than expected response, leading to supply side constraints. As a result,
Free float (%) 63.6 it is yet to be launched outside UK and EU.
 MLA platform - Pivot for future models and margins: MLA platform is scalable
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar 2018 2019E 2020E architecture utilizing efficiently modular commonalities. It is agnostic to
Net Sales 2,946 3,295 3,582 propulsion systems. Given uncertainty around inflection point for EVs, it is
EBITDA 369.7 451.8 499.6 banking on flexibility offered by MLA's platform to offer ICE, MHEV, PHEV and
PAT 77.8 136.3 153.3 BEV on same flexible architecture. Every product launched after 2020 will be
EPS (INR) 22.9 40.1 45.2
based on this MLA architecture, and offer some form of electrification. Full
Gr. (%) 15.7 75.1 12.5
BV/Sh (INR) 281.0 322.4 368.8
rollout of MLA platform will complete by 2025.
RoE (%) 10.1 13.3 13.1  Margin improvement to be driven by efficiencies in sourcing, MLA platform
RoCE (%) 6.4 6.7 6.6 and operating leverage: JLR maintained its EBIT margin guidance of 4-7% over
P/E (x) 13.4 7.7 6.8 FY19-21, and 7-9% beyond that. JLR's EBIT margin improvement hinges on three
P/BV (x) 1.1 Í.0 0.8 areas a) higher revenue growth driven by exciting new products and mix
Shareholding pattern (%) improvement, b) c) cost efficiencies from efficient sourcing and MLA platform,
As On Mar-18 Dec-17 Mar-17 and c) realizing operating leverage. Its margin guidance factors in for a) certain
Promoter 36.4 36.4 34.7 mix of EVs/PHEVs and b) margin normalization in China.
DII 17.7 17.1 15.5  Guides for capex of GBP4.5 pa till FY21; FCF negative for FY19/20: Capital
FII 20.3 21.4 23.2
allocation is a major focus area, as it is one of the key driver of operating
Others 25.7 25.1 26.6
leverage and cash flows. It plans to invest GBP4.5 pa till FY21 and 12-13% of
FII Includes depository receipts
sales post FY21 (v/s 15-16% currently). It is committed for FY19 capex, but
Stock Performance (1-year) progressively there is more flexibility in future. In the long term, large part of
its capex would be invested in products (~51%), technology (~22%) and less on
capacity (~23%). Based on its estimates for EBIT margins and Capex, it expects
negative FCF over FY19-20 and positive FCF only from FY21.
 Valuation and view: We have cut our consol EPS estimates by 7%/15% for
FY19/20 to factor in for a) weaker volumes, b) GBP appreciation and c) lower
capex guidance. The stock trades at 6.8x FY20E EPS, 2.3x EV/EBITDA and 0.8x
BV. Buy with TP of ~INR431 (SOTP). Key risks to our thesis: a) persistent
weakness in demand environment for JLR, b) trade barriers impacting
competitive positioning of JLR and c) adverse FX movement.
Jinesh Gandhi - Research Analyst (Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1524
Deep A Shah - Research Analyst (Deep.S@MotilalOswal.com);+912261291533/ Suneeta Kamath (Suneeta.Kamath@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
 Tata Motors

I-Pace: Innovations drives performance; waiting period of 6 months in UK

 I-Pace UK supplies will start from next week, as it was training its dealer network
for EV launch. It has order book of 6 months. Launch in other markets in coming
months.
 I-Pace is the first electric car to have a unique cooling circuit dedicated to the
battery pack. It is packed with several innovations boosting its performance like:
 Use of permanent synchronous magnet in electric motors coupled with
patented hairpin technology, resulting in 80% less in-rush current for the
equivalent initial torque.
 Only EV that can decelerate 0.4g without applying friction brakes. Over 95%
of braking events can be completed using regenerative braking. I-PACE is
also the only car that can complete EPA, NEDC and WLTP drive cycles
without using friction brakes.
 70kWh of energy can be taken on board in less than 40 mins, giving up to
380 Km of range.
 Also, recently launched RR/RR Sport PHEV has got better than expected
response, leading to supply side constraints. As a result, it is yet to be launched
outside UK and EU.

MLA platform - Pivot for future models and margins

 Modular Longitudinal Architecture (MLA) architecture is scalable architecture
utilizing efficiently modular commonalities. It is agnostic to propulsion systems.
It's highly scalable, with lots of commonality yet maintaining uniqueness of each
products/brands.
 Given uncertainty around inflection point for EVs, it is banking on flexibility
offered by MLA's platform to offer ICE, MHEV, PHEV and BEV on same flexible
architecture
 Every product launched after 2020 will be based on this MLA architecture, and
offer some form of electrification. Full rollout of MLA platform will complete by
2025.
 In FY19, it is transforming Smaller SUVs with brand new premium transverse
architecture. This would drive 13% reduction in CO2 through mild hybrid and
70% reduction in CO2 through PHEV (under 45g/km exceeding China's NEV
requirement).
 Ingenium engine is modular in nature enabling efficient engineering, shared
technologies and complexity reduction. Petrol and Diesel engines have many
common child parts and has flexible manufacturing facility to enable the most
efficient delivery of propulsion systems.

EVs Investing in flexible MLA platform to offer all powertrain options

 It expects electrification of vehicles across markets globally will be different, and
hence needs to have different offerings in different markets. Hence, it is
investing in a new platform - Modular Longitudinal Architecture (MLA), as it is
flexible architecture with capability to offer ICE, MHEV, PHEV and BEV. This is
important as no one knows when EVs reach inflection point across segments
and markets.
 Every product launched after 2020 will be based on this MLA architecture and
will offer some form of electrification.

25 June 2018 2
 Tata Motors

 It is participating in Formula-E racing for innovating on EVs, which it can use in

commercial products as well. For eg, regenerative braking enabling range
extension of battery was inspired from the Formula-E racing cars.
 It is manufacturing battery packs but will not manufacture li-ion cells. It has
partnerships with global leaders like LG, Panasonic and Samsung for the cell
technology.
 Learnings and new skills gained from i-Pace will be embedded into all its future
electric products for driving superior performance.

ACES: Partnering with global leaders, for being global leader

 JLR has partnered with key relevant global technology leaders in ACES arena to
ensure seamless transition. With new BEV I-Pace it is dramatically transforming its
vehicle technologies.
 It is sourcing skills from places that are most effective at being technology
disruptors. It is rapidly developing capabilities in emerging areas of electrical,
software and mechatronics, with focus on ACES (Autonomous, Connected, Electric
and Shared mobility) technologies.
 For Autonomous vehicles, it already level 1 autonomy available on its products
and now level 2 features are available in the I-Pace. While it is developing level 4
& 5 features both internally and externally, however for progression to level 4 & 5
autonomy, it needs support of legislative body.
 For Connected cars, it has already begun journey to connected cars, and are
enhancing our suit of features for customers.
 Apart for its direct work on these new technologies, it is deepening its
understanding in these areas through its corporate venturing unit InMotion.
InMotion focuses on strategic areas on its own (for eg. Liquid - vehicle rental in
London for JLR vehicles, Carpe - unlimited mileage subscription of JLR vehicles)
and through venture capital arm (Sheprd - on-demand school buses in US, Voyage
- Autonomous taxi company)
 Its partnership with Waymo for building 20,000 self-driving I-Pace is a major step
in autonomous driving for JLR. JLR's 80-100 engineers are working with Waymo
for I-Pace project.

Margin improvement to be driven by efficiencies in sourcing, MLA platform

and operating leverage
 JLR maintained its EBIT margin guidance of 4-7% over FY19-21, and 7-9% beyond
that.
 JLR's EBIT margin improvement hinges on three areas a) higher revenue growth
driven by exciting new products and mix improvement, b) c) cost efficiencies from
efficient sourcing and MLA platform, and c) realizing operating leverage. Its
margin guidance factors in for a) certain mix of EVs/PHEVs and b) margin
normalisation in China
 It is focusing on cost with initiatives across functions:
 Engineering focused on a) attaining scale & flexibility through MLA platform,
b) Products designed and engineered without unnecessary complexity, c)
reduce development cycle times and d) collaborations and partnerships to
spread investments.

25 June 2018 3
 Tata Motors

 Sourcing and negotiations targeting global sourcing and supply base to drive
cost savings improving flexibility and logistics.
 Manufacturing & logistics aiming for a) new facilities designed for efficiency
and quality, b) benchmarking for productivity, c) low cost base (Slovakia cost
to be lower by GBP2000/unit), d) further in-sourcing (eg. Engine), and e)
improved logistics and supply designs.
 Marketing & sales focusing on a) dual branded distribution to drive front
end synergies, b) extend sales & operations planning to reduce inventory
and variable marketing cost, and c) owned media agencies to reduce
marketing cost.
 Corporate & admin to a) manage SG&A cost inflation below revenue growth
and b) invest in infrastructure and IT to achieve efficiencies.
 Also, it is working with moderated growth plans to reflect revised market
conditions and is accordingly planning for its cost.

Guides for capex of GBP4.5 pa till FY21; FCF negative for FY19/20
 Capital allocation is a major focus area, as it is one of the key driver of operating
leverage and cash flows. It has make tough but prudent choices on investment
plans to meet affordability criteria while remaining at the forefront of
technologies.
 It plans to invest GBP4.5 pa till FY21 and 12-13% of sales post FY21. It is
committed for FY19 capex, but progressively there is more flexibility in future.
 Its priority areas for investment are a) products, b) architecture, c) ICE to ACES,
d) efficiency, e) Infrastructure and f) compliance.
 In the long term, large part of its capex would be invested in products (~51%),
technology (~22%) and less on capacity (~23%).
 With Slovakia plant commissioning operations from Sep-18, it would have
capacity of ~890k (with additional ~150k in phase-2; FY18 volumes of ~633k).
Slovakia and Magna Steyr (Austria) would give it global manufacturing
capability, supporting key markets and accessing a lower cost base.
 Based on its estimates for EBIT margins and Capex, it expects negative FCF over
FY19-20 and positive FCF only from FY21.

New product launches, trend towards SUVs to drive outperformance for JLR
 JLR estimates luxury segment to grow 2.6% CAGR over FY18-24, with superior
growth for luxury SUVs at 3.3% as against 1.9% for luxury cars. It estimates
China (4.2% CAGR) and RoW (4% CAGR) to grow faster than UK (0.8%), US (1.2%)
and EU (1.6%).
 JLR expects its outperformance to industry to continue, driven by a) new
products, and b) SUV oriented product portfolio.
 In near term, FY19 volume growth would be driven by full year benefit of new
launches of FY18 (Velar, E-Pace, RR/RR Sport) as well I-Pace launch.
 It plans to launch 4 new nameplates from FY18-23, including I-Pace and new
Defender. Apart from new nameplates, it plans to offer several variants on these
nameplates.
 It plans to expand its global retail footprint from 1,571 retailers in 129 countries
to ~1,800 retailers by 2023.

25 June 2018 4
 Tata Motors

 More importantly, it is now rolling out common identity (ARCH) across its
network. Currently it has 538 sites with investment of ~GBP3b, by FY23 majority
of its network on this identity and would have invested <GBP9b. Benefit this
new identity is visible in UK Arch retailer (v/s national average) with higher
enquiries (by 7%), sales (by 7%) and conquest (loyalty) ratio (by 22%).
 Also, it is focused on Experience centres, as it plays important role to increase
customer loyalty. It has 60 operational brand experience centres across the
world. In FY18, it delivered over 1m guest experiences across the world.

Current ICE engines along with hybrid to meet future emission norms;
Diesel to play key part
 JLR believes in competitiveness of diesel for meeting future emission norms. It
continues to engineer clear diesel and its existing diesel portfolio already
achieves the 2020 emission standards. It expects diesel to contribute ~35% to its
near-term volumes and ~30% to medium term volumes.
 Further, its Ingenium engine family is already equipped for future legislative
challenges and is fit for the next decade.
 Also, JLR’s exhaust system technology offers 98% NoX conversion efficiency,
which would enable it to meet future Real Driving Emission (RDE) standards.
 It expects PHEVs and BEVs to play part in meeting future emission standards.
BEV/PHEVs are targeted to contribute ~20% to medium term volumes from ~5%
in near-term volumes.
 RR/RR Sport PHEVs delivers over 55% reduction in CO2 emission. It is
experiencing higher take rates in PHEV RR/RR Sport, which is much higher than
their expectations.

Exhibit 1: JLR’s MLA architecture is highly modular and agnostic to propulsion system

Source: Company, MOSL

25 June 2018 5
 Tata Motors

Exhibit 2: JLR expects share of BEV/PHEV to increase to 20% in medium term

Petrol (incl mild hybrid) Diesel (incl mild hybrid) BEV/ PHEV
5%
20%
35%
30%

60% 50%

Near term Medium term

Source: Company

Exhibit 3: JLR expects to launch 3 new nameplates between FY19-22, with several
products on existing nameplates
Nameplates Products
42
38

19
15 16
13

FY19 FY21 FY22-24

Source: Company

Exhibit 4: JLR is in process of developing capabilities in electrical, software and mechatronics areas

Source: Company, MOSL

25 June 2018 6
 Tata Motors

Exhibit 5: JLR’s break-up of capex in the long term

Other
powertrains R&D Exp
9% 10%
Electrificati
on
13%
Products R&D Cap. Capex
51% 35% 55%
Capacity &
others
27%

Source: Company, MOSL

Exhibit 6: JLR’s powertrain strategy delivers a fully emission compliant portfolio

Source: Company, MOSL

25 June 2018 7
 Tata Motors

Exhibit 7: JLR’s continues to engineer clean diesels, with todays’ results already achieving the 2020 emission standard

Source: Company, MOSL

Exhibit 8: JLR has ~1,571 retailers in 129 countries, which it Exhibit 9: …as well moving to common identity (ARCH)
plans to expand to 1,800 by FY23… across its network
Total Common (J+LR) ARCH Sites Invest (GBP b)
541
[VALUE]
408 384 364

251 251 232

156 163 3 1800

48
538

China USA UK EU RoW FY18 FY22/23

Source: Company Source: Company

Valuation and view

 Strong product cycle positioning for all major JLR brands to aid volumes in
FY18-20: ~50% of volumes are likely to come from new/refreshed products over
the next two years, as it launches two new products, six refreshes and forays
into the EV space before its peers. We expect JLR's volumes (including JV) to
grow at a CAGR of 9% over FY18-20, driven by 18% CAGR for Jaguar and 6%
CAGR for LR on the back of the launch of two new models and six major
refreshes.

25 June 2018 8
 Tata Motors

 JLR’s profitability has many levers: JLR has several levers, both cyclical and
structural, in the form of (a) favorable FX, as realized hedge rates improve from
4QFY18, (b) operating leverage, (c) cost savings on modular platform on full
rollout of modular strategy, and (d) low-cost Slovakia plant. The convergence of
the multiple factors stated above is expected to drive up EBIT margin by 210bp
to 6.3% in FY20.
 …though some dark clouds emanate from weak demand and adverse FX:
Weakening outlook for demand in key markets and negative sentiment toward
diesel would pose challenge for JLR’s volume growth, though it would still
outgrow industry due to a favorable product lifecycle. Also, high volatility in GBP
reduces visibility on margins, though JLR is working on a plan to create natural
hedge by setting up plants in Slovakia and sourcing from Magna Steyr. Both
these factors have potential to drive further downgrades to our estimates due
to volume cut, higher variable marketing spend and adverse FX rate.
 PV business turnaround on the anvil? : With Tiago, Tigor, Hexa and Nexon
having good start and new launches scheduled over FY18-FY19, we believe the
worst is behind for the PV business. Breakeven point for the PV business is
estimated at 55% utilization levels, which could be achieved in the next 2-3
years. This could add 6-7% to our FY19 SOTP.
 Valuation and view: We have cut our consol EPS estimates by 7%/15% for
FY19/20 to factor in for a) weaker volumes, b) GBP appreciation and c) lower
capex guidance. Key risks to our thesis: a) Persistent weakness in the demand
environment for JLR, b) trade barriers impacting competitive positioning of JLR,
and c) adverse FX movement. The stock trades at 6.8x FY20E EPS, 2.3x
EV/EBITDA and 0.8x BV. Buy with a TP of ~INR431 (FY20E based SOTP).

Exhibit 10: TATA MOTORS: Sum-of-the-parts valuation

INR B Valuation Parameter Multiple (x) FY19E FY20E
SOTP Value
Tata Motors - Standalone EV/EBITDA 8.0 436 620
JLR (Adj for R&D capitalization) EV/EBITDA 2.5 616 633
JLR - Chery JV EBITDA Share EV/EBITDA 2.5 104 141
Tata Technologies EV/EBITDA 6.0 41 45
Tata Daewoo EV/EBITDA 4.0 18 20
Total EV 1,214 1,458
Less: Net Debt (Ex TMFL) 220 124
Add: Other Investments
Tata Motors Finance P/BV 0.75 31 35
Tata Sons 50% discount 95 95
Total Equity Value 1,119 1,463
Fair Value (INR/Sh) - Ord Sh Fully Diluted 330 431
Upside (%) 7.0 39.8
Fair Value (INR/Sh) - DVR @ 30% discount 230 301
Upside (%) 26.5 65.5
Source: MOSL

25 June 2018 9
 Tata Motors

Exhibit 11: Revised Estimates

FY19E FY20E
Key Assumptions Rev Old Chg (%) Rev Old Chg (%)
Consolidated
Net Sales 3,295 3,386 -2.7 3,582 3,738 -4.2
EBITDA 452 468 -3.5 500 537 -7.0
EBITDA Margins (%) 13.7 13.8 -10bp 13.9 14.4 -40bp
Net Profit 136 147 -7.0 153 180 -14.6
Cons EPS 40.1 43.2 -7.0 45.2 52.9 -14.6
JLR (IFRS, GBP M)
Volumes ('000 units) incl JV 671 692 -3.0 716 747 -4.2
EBITDA 3,699 3,874 -4.5 3,810 4,206 -9.4
EBITDA Margins (%) 13.4 13.5 -10bp 13.3 13.8 -50bp
Net Profit 1,517 1,631 -7.0 1,426 1,719 -17.0
Standalone
Volumes ('000 units) 740 740 0.0 857 857 0.0
EBITDA 54 54 0.0 78 78 0.0
EBITDA Margins (%) 7.9 7.9 0bp 9.5 9.5 0bp
Net Profit 26.5 26.5 0.0 44.5 44.5 0.0
Source: Company, MOSL

Exhibit 12: Comparative Valuation

CMP Rating TP P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) Div Yield (%) EPS CAGR (%)
Auto OEM's (INR)* (INR) FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E FY18-20E
Bajaj Auto 2,831 Buy 3,550 16.9 14.8 11.6 9.6 24.0 24.7 2.5 2.8 12.6
Hero MotoCorp 3,640 Neutral 4,052 18.1 15.9 11.0 9.6 32.1 32.4 2.9 3.2 11.2
TVS Motor 583 Neutral 627 29.6 20.5 17.6 12.7 29.0 32.8 0.7 0.9 42.8
M&M 908 Buy 1,031 18.4 16.8 14.7 13.2 14.8 14.8 1.1 1.1 15.8
Maruti Suzuki 8,890 Buy 10,525 25.3 19.9 15.5 12.5 21.5 23.2 1.1 1.4 29.4
Tata Motors 308 Buy 431 7.7 6.8 2.9 2.3 13.3 13.1 0.1 0.1 40.4
Ashok Leyland 137 Buy 181 18.8 15.0 9.4 6.9 27.1 28.4 1.6 1.8 30.2
Eicher Motors 29,155 Buy 35,572 27.8 21.6 23.3 18.8 35.0 33.8 0.6 0.7 29.8
Auto Ancillaries
Bharat Forge 614 Buy 806 24.2 19.0 14.0 11.5 23.2 24.6 0.9 1.0 35.1
Exide Industries 251 Buy 296 25.3 20.1 14.0 11.4 14.1 15.8 1.0 1.3 23.5
Amara Raja Batteries 764 Buy 952 24.2 20.1 12.4 10.1 17.1 17.9 0.6 0.8 17.4
BOSCH 17,995 Neutral 19,291 31.1 25.2 19.5 15.8 16.8 18.7 1.1 1.3 23.3
Endurance Tech 1,303 Buy 1,530 34.0 25.5 16.2 12.7 22.6 25.2 0.5 1.0 32.5
Motherson Sumi 303 Buy 426 25.0 17.8 9.4 6.6 25.0 29.0 1.0 1.5 44.6
Mahindra CIE 265 Buy 298 19.3 16.0 9.9 8.0 13.1 13.8 0.0 0.0 31.3
Escorts 894 Neutral 982 17.1 13.7 14.3 11.1 19.3 20.3 0.6 0.6 28.7
Source: Company, MOSL

25 June 2018 10
 Tata Motors

Tata Motors| Story in Charts: Strong earnings growth over FY18-20

Exhibit 13: Expect JLR (incl JV) volume CAGR of 9% over Exhibit 14: JLR margins to expand as volumes ramp up and
FY18-FY20 led by new launches FX hedge turns favorable
JLR volumes (incl JV; '000 units) EBITDA (GBP m) EBITDA margin (%)
18.3
18.9
15.5 15.6 17.5
14.8 14.1 13.8
13.5
10.4 12.1 11.2
9.5 9.2
8.0
5.4

2,331

3,393

4,131

3,147

2,955

2,894

3,874

4,206
372

430

471

544

601

634

692

747
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E

Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL

Exhibit 15: Increasing D&A restricting EBIT margins Exhibit 16: JLR to remain FCF positive despite high capex
expansion plans
CFO Capex FCF
EBIT Margins (%) Depn and Amortn (% of sales)
14.1
13.0

1,361
1,023
10.8 11.3 10.8
986
2,429

3,422

3,575

3,556

3,160

3,750

4,848

5,327
686

594
8.0 6.8 8.0 8.1 8.8

4.0 4.5 4.8

3.9
-2,609

-2,736

-2,589

-2,962

-3,780

-3,825
-30

-3,966
-180

3.4

-4,222
6.3

-1,062
6.4 6.0 6.4
4.2
FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19E

FY20E

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E

Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL

Exhibit 17: Trend in JLR’s forex unrealized hedged loss in

FY15-18 Exhibit 18: Strong earnings growth over FY18-20E
88.4
Fx unrealized hedge loss - Current EPS (INR) Growth (%)
3,023 41.3

15.7 22.5
-1.1 -12.0
1,591 -16.8
1,136 1,028 -48.4
810 655
521 593

31.2 44.1 43.6 38.4 19.8 22.9 43.2 52.9

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18 FY19E FY20E
Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL

25 June 2018 11
 Tata Motors

Key operating metrics

Exhibit 19: Snapshot of Revenue model

000 units FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
JLR
Jaguar 58 79 76 102 179 176 210 237
Growth (%) 7.0 37.2 -3.5 33.5 75.1 -1.4 19.3 12.7
% of Total JLR Vols 15.5 18.4 16.1 18.8 29.8 27.8 30.4 31.7
Land Rover 314 351 394 442 422 457 482 510
Growth (%) 20.7 11.6 12.4 12.2 -4.5 8.3 5.3 6.0
% of Total JLR Vols 84.5 81.6 83.0 81.2 70.2 72.2 69.6 68.3
Total Volumes (incl JV) 372 430 475 544 601 634 692 747
Growth (%) 18.3 15.5 10.4 14.6 10.4 5.4 9.2 8.0
ASP (GBP '000/unit) 42 45 46 44 46 47 49 50
Growth (%) -1.3 6.3 3.0 -5.8 4.0 3.9 3.5 2.1
Net JLR Sales (GBP b) 16 19 22 22 24 26 29 30
Growth (%) 16.8 22.8 12.8 1.9 9.2 5.9 11.3 6.2
DOMESTIC
MH&CVs 153 122 143 176 176 192 214 247
Growth (%) -31.1 -19.7 16.5 23.6 -0.3 9.2 11.2 15.7
LCVs 429 299 222 205 209 257 306 365
Growth (%) 17.8 -30.3 -25.8 -7.7 2.1 22.7 19.5 19.0
Total CVs 581 421 365 381 385 449 520 612
Growth (%) -0.7 -27.5 -13.5 4.6 1.0 16.6 15.9 17.6
Total PVs 229 145 138 152 157 190 220 245
Growth (%) -32.2 -36.5 -5.3 10.1 3.9 20.8 15.7 11.3
Total Volumes 810 567 502 533 542 639 740 857
Growth (%) -12.2 -30.1 -11.4 6.1 1.8 17.8 15.9 15.8
ASP (INR 000/unit) 552 605 723 804 817 921 932 949
Net S/A Sales (INR b) 447 343 363 428 443 588 690 813
Growth (%) -17.6 -23.4 5.9 18.0 3.4 32.8 17.2 17.9

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 Tata Motors

Financials and Valuations

Income Statement (Consolidated) (INR Million)
Y/E March 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E
Total Income 2,328,337 2,631,590 2,730,456 2,696,925 2,946,192 3,295,023 3,581,741
Change (%) 23.3 13.0 3.8 -1.2 9.2 11.8 8.7
Expenditure 1,954,308 2,210,452 2,312,693 2,327,802 2,576,462 2,843,189 3,082,175
EBITDA 374,029 421,138 417,763 369,124 369,730 451,834 499,567
% of Net Sales 16.1 16.0 15.3 13.7 12.5 13.7 13.9
Depreciation 110,782 133,886 167,108 179,050 215,536 243,757 285,319
EBIT 263,248 287,252 250,655 190,074 154,194 208,077 214,248
Product Dev. Exp. 25,652 28,752 34,688 34,136 36,319 35,508 34,994
Interest 47,338 48,615 48,891 42,380 46,818 42,486 43,539
Other Income 8,286 8,987 8,854 7,545 8,889 7,553 7,987
EO Exp/(Inc) 2,777 930 18,504 -11,146 -19,751 0 0
Forex Gain/ (Loss) -7,077 -917 -16,169 -39,101 11,853 -22,445 -22,894
PBT 188,690 217,026 141,258 93,148 111,550 115,190 120,808
Tax 47,648 76,429 30,251 32,512 43,419 50,218 50,937
Effective Rate (%) 25.3 35.2 21.4 34.9 38.9 43.6 42.2
Reported PAT 141,042 140,597 111,007 60,636 68,131 64,972 69,871
Change (%) 43.0 -0.3 -21.0 -45.4 12.4 -4.6 7.5
% of Net Sales 6.1 5.3 4.1 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.0
Minority Interest -595 -868 -989 -1,022 -1,025 -1,204 -1,328
Share of profit of associate -537 134 5,775 14,930 22,783 27,650 39,013
Net Profit 139,910 139,863 115,793 74,544 89,889 91,418 107,556
Adj. PAT 141,986 140,465 130,334 67,288 77,826 136,307 153,343
Change (%) 42.6 -1.1 -7.2 -48.4 15.7 75.1 12.5

Balance Sheet (Cons.) (INR Million)

Y/E March 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E
Share Capital 6,438 6,438 6,792 6,792 6,792 6,792 6,792
Reserves 649,597 556,181 782,732 573,827 947,487 1,088,034 1,245,617
Net Worth 656,035 562,619 789,524 580,619 954,279 1,094,826 1,252,409
Loans 549,545 692,115 619,612 744,891 779,944 761,860 743,776

Deferred Tax -7,748 -13,900 44,748 11,740 19,671 19,671 19,671

Capital Employed 1,202,038 1,245,167 1,458,212 1,341,781 1,759,144 1,882,812 2,023,639
Gross Fixed Assets 1,329,282 1,582,066 1,976,068 2,043,106 2,544,760 3,017,899 3,333,996
Less: Depreciation 688,154 744,241 911,348 1,090,398 1,305,934 1,549,692 1,835,010
Net Fixed Assets 641,128 837,825 1,064,720 952,708 1,238,826 1,468,208 1,498,986
Capital WIP 332,626 286,401 259,189 336,988 400,335 250,000 250,000
Goodwill 49,788 46,970 7,598 6,733 1,165 1,165 1,165
Investments 106,867 153,367 237,670 203,379 208,128 235,778 274,790
Curr.Assets 1,046,103 1,034,685 1,102,234 1,237,735 1,423,465 1,372,056 1,519,711
Inventory 272,709 292,723 326,557 350,853 421,377 428,804 466,117
Sundry Debtors 105,742 125,792 135,709 140,756 198,933 180,549 196,260
Cash & Bank Bal. 297,118 321,158 304,604 360,779 346,139 280,685 350,318
Loans & Advances 273,241 256,948 254,033 291,474 445,929 460,929 475,929
Current Liab. & Prov. 974,474 1,114,081 1,213,200 1,395,762 1,512,774 1,444,393 1,521,013
Sundry Creditors 573,157 574,073 615,618 625,326 769,398 722,197 785,039
Other Liabilities 199,707 328,305 460,226 622,314 538,766 541,648 539,714
Net Current Assets 71,629 -79,396 -110,965 -158,027 -89,309 -72,338 -1,302
Appl. of Funds 1,202,038 1,245,167 1,458,212 1,341,782 1,759,145 1,882,812 2,023,639
E: MOSL Estimates

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 Tata Motors

Financials and Valuations

Ratios (Con.)
Y/E March 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E
Basic (INR)
EPS 44.1 43.6 38.4 19.8 22.9 40.1 45.2
EPS Fully Diluted 44.1 43.6 38.4 19.8 22.9 40.1 45.2
EPS Growth (%) 41.3 -1.1 -12.0 -48.4 15.7 75.1 12.5
Cash EPS 78.5 85.2 87.6 72.5 86.4 111.9 129.2
Book Value (Rs/Share) 203.8 174.8 232.5 171.0 281.0 322.4 368.8
DPS 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3
Payout (Incl. Div. Tax) % 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.7
Valuation (x)
Consolidated P/E 15.6 13.4 7.7 6.8
Normalized P/E 212.4 83.3 14.4 13.0
EV/EBITDA 3.3 3.4 2.9 2.3
EV/Sales 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3
Price to Book Value 1.8 1.1 1.0 0.8
Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Profitability Ratios (%)
RoE 27.5 23.1 19.3 9.8 10.1 13.3 13.1
RoCE 19.2 15.7 15.1 9.2 6.4 6.7 6.6
RoIC 38.7 39.2 34.5 22.6 15.1 12.2 10.9
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (Days) 17 17 18 19 25 20 20
Inventory (Days) 43 41 44 47 52 48 48
Creditors (Days) 90 80 82 85 95 80 80
Asset Turnover (x) 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.8
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x) 0.8 1.2 0.8 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.6

Cash Flow Statement

Y/E March 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E
OP/(Loss) before Tax 139,910 139,863 110,238 74,544 89,889 136,307 153,343
Int/Div. Received 6,933 7,777 8,258 7,545 8,889 7,553 7,987
Depreciation 110,736 133,864 170,142 179,050 215,536 243,757 285,319
Direct Taxes Paid -43,083 -41,940 -19,939 -65,520 -35,488 -50,218 -50,937
(Inc)/Dec in WC 57,744 -36,718 25,515 103,236 -83,358 -82,424 -1,403
Other Items 88,983 136,570 96,855 1,068 6,288 1,204 1,328
CF from Op Activity 361,223 339,415 391,069 299,923 201,755 256,179 395,637
Extra-ordinary Items 7,221 20,191 8,857 11,146 19,751 0 0
CF after EO Items 368,444 359,606 399,925 311,069 221,507 256,179 395,637
(Inc)/Dec in FA+CWIP -269,252 -315,396 -326,232 -144,837 -565,001 -322,804 -316,097
(Pur)/Sale of Invest. -36,611 -37,570 -68,134 34,291 -4,748 -27,650 -39,013
CF from Inv Activity -305,863 -352,966 -394,366 -110,546 -569,749 -350,454 -355,110

Issue of Shares 1 0 74,332 -283,449 283,771 5,344 5,344

Inc/(Dec) in Debt 30,092 122,288 -47,483 125,280 35,052 -18,084 -18,084
Interest Paid -61,706 -63,070 -57,039 -42,380 -46,818 -42,486 -43,539
Dividends Paid -7,220 -7,204 -1,739 0 0 -1,104 -1,104
CF from Fin Activity -38,832 52,014 -31,930 -200,550 272,006 -56,330 -57,383
Inc/(Dec) in Cash 23,749 58,655 -26,371 -27 -76,237 -150,605 -16,856
Add: Beginning Bal. 142,531 152,629 211,283 184,913 184,886 108,649 -41,956
Closing Balance 166,280 211,283 184,913 184,886 108,649 -41,956 -58,812
E: MOSL Estimates

25 June 2018 14
 Tata Motors

NOTES

25 June 2018 15
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating Expected return (over 12-month)
BUY >=15% Tata Motors
SELL < - 10%
NEUTRAL > - 10 % to 15%
UNDER REVIEW Rating may undergo a change
NOT RATED NOTES
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst becomes inconsistent with the investment rating legend, the Research Analyst shall within 28 days of the inconsistency, take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.

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Disclosure of Interest Statement Tata Motors
Analyst ownership of the stock No
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