GEOG/ENST 1020: People, Places and Environments

Summer 2020
Student Name: Oluwatoyin Adams
Student Number: 101149746
May 25, 2020

Assignment #2 - Population Geographies

1. Refer to Table 1.

2. a) The doubling time for Canada is likely misleading as it only accounts for the crude birth
rate (CBR) and crude death rate (CDR). Doubling time is “related to the RNI” (Norton and
Mercier, 2019: 55), which “measures the rate (usually annual) of population growth by
subtracting the CDR from the CBR” (Norton and Mercier, 2019: 54). In the calculation for
doubling time, the rule of 70 is used through which the doubling time is determined by
dividing 70 by the rate of natural increase (RNI) (Boucher, 2020). As Norton and Mercier
note, “because RNI data take into account only mortality and fertility, not migration, they
generally do not reflect the true population change of any area smaller than the earth” (2019:
54). Omitting migration data is especially misleading for Canada, as Canada “has one of the
highest rates of migration intensity of any country in the world (second only to Australia)”
(Bhushan, 2019). Moreover, migration rates in Canada are starting to contribute even more
to population totals than RNIs (Statistics Canada, 2018).

b) An additional factor that is important to consider when trying to predict future population
totals is migratory increase. Migratory increase is defined by Statistics Canada as a “change
in the size of a population owing to the difference between the number of migrants who
settle within a geographic area and the number of migrants who leave that same area during
a given period (Statistics Canada, 2018). In Canada, there is now a shift in the contributions
of migratory increase and natural increase to population totals with natural increase
accounting “for less than one-third of Canada’s population growth” (Statistics Canada,
2018), while “migratory increase currently accounts for about two-thirds” (Statistics
Canada, 2018). As the RNI continues to decline in Canada due to aging population and
declining fertility rates, it is clear that migratory increase will not only be increasingly
significant to population growth in the future but, may become Canada’s sole contribution to
population growth in coming years as Canada’s RNI is projected to be close to zero within
20 years. (Statistics Canada, 2018). Moreover, temporary migration has seen rapid growth
with the temporary migration of foreign workers tripling between 2000 and 2018 and
Canadian international student programs contributing largely. This increase in migration of a
generally younger demographic of students may also contribute to future and potential
population growth as permanent residence may be anticipated by students after the
completion of their education.

3. Refer to Figure 1.
4. The completed Figure 1 provides evidence of a moderately strong negative relationship
between a country’s Gross National Income (GNI) and CBR. The line of best fit depicted in
Figure 1 has a coefficient of determination (R2) value of 0.8809, indicating this moderately
strong correlation to the data set points. The general negative trend of the graph displays a
negative relationship in which the CBR decreases as the GNI increases. This trend is
consistent with Norton and Mercier’s understanding of how economic development relates
to birth rates as expressed when they state, “With increasing industrialization and
urbanization, fertility declines” (2019: 48). The implications of this statement are addressed
as Norton and Mercier further that “traditional societies, in which the family is a total
production and consumption unit, … favour large families. By contrast, modern societies
emphasize small families and individual independence” (2019: 48). The economic and
cultural factors affecting fertility mutually attend to the idea that the economic and cultural
status of more developed countries, correspond with reduced fertility. This, again, is
consistent with the negative trend displayed in Figure 1 as the CBR (indicative of fertility),
decreases with an increase in the GNI (indicative of economic development with higher
values associated with more developed countries).

5. Figure 2 was created based on the data for the countries in Table 1 and displays the
relationship between a country’s population density and its level of development as
measured by per capita the GNI. In Figure 2, there is no clear positive or negative
relationship shown between a country’s population density and its level of economic
development, more specifically amongst the countries with comparatively lower population
densities than Singapore. Moreover, Figure 2 displays the Singapore data point as an
apparent outlier with an exceptional population density of 8,442.5 people / km2 (and
correspondingly high GNI of 94,100) when compared to the population densities of Mexico
and Thailand, for example, which are 65.1 and 129.4 people / km2, respectively. Amongst
the countries with comparatively lower population densities, there is no consistent positive
or negative with another slight deviation apparent with South Korea’s data point as its
population density of 519.5 people / km2 is comparatively slightly higher than the 25 – 130
people / km2 range of the other seven country data points. As Norton and Mercier suggest,
“In general, the world’s most densely populated countries tend to be small island nations of
quite modest populations” (2019: 45). This accounts for the deviations of Singapore and
South Korea as they are both countries that are small in area, with modest populations of 5.8
and 51.8 million, respectively. Moreover, the correspondingly exceptional GNI of Singapore
can be attributed to its economic development and does not directly correlate with its
exceptional population density which is more attributed to the country’s smaller total area as
an island country.

6. a) Norton and Mercier outline overpopulation as considered a real danger in which the
“carrying capacity has been (or will soon be) exceeded” (2019: 57). With carry capacity
defined as, “The maximum population that can be supported by a given set of resources and
a given level of technology” (Norton and Mercier, 2019: 57), overpopulation can be
described as the population of a given area exceeding the support of the resources and
technology by which they are no longer sustained, in that same area. Moreover, in a later
chapter, Norton and Mercier suggest that “Overpopulation is a relative term, and densely
populated areas are not necessarily overpopulated” (2019: 100).

b) Of the nine countries in Table 1, Kenya may be the most likely to have the problem of
overpopulation. Table 1 displays Kenya’s total population to be 52.6 million which ranks as
the third highest total population from the selected countries displayed (third to Mexico and
Thailand with total populations of 126.6 and 66.4 million, respectively). For a country with
one of the highest total populations, Kenya has one of the lowest GNI of $3500 per capita,
succeeded only by Afghanistan with a GNI of $2000 per capita. Moreover, Kenya’s
population density also ranks high (forth behind Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand) with
90.6 people per kilometre squared. With the definition of overpopulation describing an
exceeding of a population from what can be can be supported by the resources in the
country, and the GNI being of some indication of the extent to which resources are being
supplied by a country, the disproportionality of the relatively low GNI in comparison to the
higher total population and population density correspond with overpopulation factors
suggesting that the total population may not be supported by such a small income.
Moreover, a higher population density is indicative of a high total population matched with a
low total area, which is the case for Kenya. A high population density in some cases can
correspond to the lack of support of resources as the fixed total area in which resources can
exist is exceeded or can be potentially exceeded by a growing population.

Regarding population growth, Kenya has the second shortest doubling time of 31
years, second to only Afghanistan with 27 years. The doubling time encompasses the CBR,
CDR, and RNI and is indicative of future population growth and the rate at which it will
occur. With one of the lowest doubling times, it can be attested that Kenya’s population is
one of the fastest growing out of the nine countries. The doubling time accompanied by its
similarly high-ranking total fertility rate (TFR) indicate relatively fast population growth
which may contribute to overpopulation vulnerability as resources, limited as they are, will
most likely be unable to sustain the projected population growth, as rapid as it is.

Lastly, Kenya’s percent urban of 32 is the second lowest out of the nine countries.
With overpopulation also describing a population exceeding the support of “a given level of
technology” (Norton and Mercier, 2019: 57), a lower percent urban is indicative of a less
developed country and can correspond to a lack of technological support that often
corresponds with further urbanization.
 Table 1: Demographic and Other Data for Selected Countries (2019)
Gross
National Rate of Population
Total Income Crude Crude Natural Doubling Total Total Area Density Percent
Country Population PPPº per Birth Rate Death Rate Increase Time, Fertility (km2) † (people / urban *
(millions)* capita (/1000)* (/1000)* (%) years Rate* km2)
(US$)†

Afghanistan 38 2,000 33 7 2.6 27 4.6 652,230 58.3 25

Thailand 66.4 17,900 11 8 0.3 234 1.5 513,120 129.4 56

South Korea 51.8 39,500 6 6 0 ∞ 1.0 99,720 519.5 82

(undefined)

Canada 37.4 48,400 10 8 0.2 350 1.5 9,984,670 3.7 81

Latvia 1.9 27,700 10 15 -0.5 -140 1.6 62,249 30.5 69

Kenya 52.6 3,500 29 6 2.3 31 3.6 580,367 90.6 32

Chile 19.1 24,600 12 6 0.6 117 1.7 756,102 25.3 87

Singapore 5.8 94,100 9 5 0.4 175 1.1 687 8,442.5 100

Mexico 126.6 19,900 17 6 1.1 64 2.1 1,943,945 65.1 73

º PPP: Purchasing Power Parity;

Sources: * World Population Data Sheet 2019, Population Reference Bureau, and † CIA World Factbook 2019
 Figure 1. Scatterplot - Gross National Income and crude birth rates, selected countries (see
Table 1).
35

30 R² = 0.88

25
Crude Birth Rate

20

15
(/1000)

10

0
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000

Gross National Income

(US$, PPP)

Figure 2. Scatterplot - Gross National Income and Population Density, selected countries (see
Table 1).
9000

8000

7000
Population Density

6000
(people / km2)

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000

Gross National Income

(US$, PPP)

References
Norton, W. and M. Mercier. 2019. Human Geography (10th edition), Oxford University Press.

Boucher, L. (2020, April 06). What is Doubling Time and How is it Calculated? Retrieved May 24,
2020, from https://populationeducation.org/what-doubling-time-and-how-it-calculated/

Bhushan, A. (2019, July 15). Migration Flows. Retrieved May 24, 2020, from
https://cidpnsi.ca/migration-flows/

Statistics Canada. (2018, May 17). Population growth: Migratory increase overtakes natural
increase. Retrieved May 24, 2020, from https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11-630-x/11-
630-x2014001-eng.htm