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Bruce Pannier, "How To Be The Next Central Asian Leader", RFE/RL's Turkmen Service, March 26, 2016
Bruce Pannier, "How To Be The Next Central Asian Leader", RFE/RL's Turkmen Service, March 26, 2016
After the collapse of Soviet Union there was a complete re-emergence of central Asia, the
region is located at the crossroads of the greatest civilisations of their time i.e. Persian,
Indian, Chinese, European, Turkic and Arabian. After its disengagement from Soviet Union
there started a struggle for influence and efforts to shape it. There has been constant tussle
between Russia which traditionally has had an influence over the region and the other
emerging powers such as China and also the U.S. This region is also very important because
of its strategic positioning as it forms a link or a common point between Europe, China,
Russia and Islamic countries. The central Asia is a battle ground for china and Russia due to
several reasons. Firstly, the china due to its rapid growth in recent years has increased its
demand for energy and the central Asia due to its abundance of resources is a major
attraction. Secondly, the china wants a way out or the solution for the Islamic extremism and
the separatist movement in Xinjiang, which the central Asian countries can prove to be
critical partner. This has been very efficiently done by china through soft power diplomacy
and through shifting of its traditional policy of bilateralism to multilateralism. This is done
through building infrastructure such as roads, railway, oil and gas pipelines which are
proving to be a great help to china as well as these countries 1. This has completely challenged
the monopoly of the Russia over the region and china is moving away from position
generally referred as junior to Russia to a major partner in that region. The Russia is also
trying to remain influential in the region show an alternative model of Eurasian integration to
European union, NATO and US. Russia also seeks to demonstrate an alternative to the west
by balancing its relation with China, central Asian countries and now south Asian countries
like India and Pakistan. The Russia has also through SCO played a very important role in
central Asia by negotiating various border disputes with china and other countries in CA.
There has also been a very positive work on water, customs and trade deals which were a
cause of conflict between these countries. The Russia has also been able to work on issues
like Islamic terrorism and various deals on the growing drug trafficking in the region from
Afghanistan and it has also been able to check the Chinese influence on possible free trade
areas and negotiate it, as it may later hound them as in huge migrations to CA and Russia or
very much increasing the market share of china to great extent. The recent visit by prime
minister Modi in June 2015 covering five countries was also a major symbolic step in
1
Bruce Pannier, “How to be the next Central Asian leader”, RFE/RL’s Turkmen Service, March 26, 2016
widening the strategic partnership and explore new possibilities in that region 2. So, from the
analysis done above it can be seen the importance of the central Asia for various countries.
WHAT IS SCO?
Shanghai cooperation organisation was a grouping of five countries created on 26 April 1996
with a treaty on military trust in border region in China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and
Tajikistan. This was followed by some other treaties and declarations. It was in 2001, the
sixth nation Uzbekistan was added and all the heads of six states signed a declaration of
Shanghai cooperation Organisation. A charter was signed in 2002 in Russia which stated the
structure, purpose and principles of the organisation. In 2015, India and Pakistan were agreed
to be full time members in the organisation and in 2017, they were formally added as
members. It has Afghanistan, Belarus, Iran and Mongolia as its observer states. It also has
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Turkey as its dialogue partners
representing more than half of the humanity. SCO over the time has emerged as one of the
very important part Asian politics. The SCO is an intergovernmental organisation that has its
focus on regional development, security and economic development. There has been a drastic
evolution in the mechanism of SCO, initially it was just for dealing with the terrorism,
separatism and border issues. It also started to build a anti US stance and stand up against the
US unilateralism but after 9/11, the SCO appeared to be not so much effective and all the
central Asian states rushed to cooperate with US. But in mid 2000s after instability in central
Asia due to various anti-establishment protests and attempts to overthrow government, the
SCO appeared to be very effective in protecting interests of the states in that region and
promote stability through multilateralism. Several important institutions such as the SCO
Secretariat in Beijing, Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS), the SCO Business Council,
and the Interbank Association were established. The SCO has also been able to counter the
US hegemony in central Asia this has been done by investing billions of dollars by Russia
and China in that region in various sectors and also has led to withdrawal of US from Uzbek
airbase and SCO call in united nations to set a date for withdrawal of US forces in
Afghanistan. This is also accompanied with certain challenges like there has been a constant
threat from the side of Chinese in the mind of central Asian countries and Russia that it
would turn into a hegemon in the region. The migration of people and already existing half a
million people in CA and the exploitative tendencies shown
2
P. Stobdan, “Modi’s Visit to Central Asia”, IDSA Comment, July 6, 2015 at
https://idsa.in/idsacomments/ModisVisittoCentralAsia_pstobdan_ 060715.
by them towards oil and timber is a cause of concern. The rise of china as a political hegemon
in future the corruption by Chinese business firms with the help of the corrupt regimes is also
a cause of concern for the region4. This could greatly harm the region ecological balance and
the labour standards. Another major disappointment is the trade between countries has not
been such of a success as it is totally bilateral in nature and it existed without SCO. Secondly
the loans given by china has not been utilised efficiently and most of the developmental
project haven’t reached a final stage. Thirdly, the china- Russia relation 5 has also been cause
of concern and their battle for supremacy in the region. The growing monopoly of china and
the increase of trade exports has been causing of concern for Russia; also, there has been
delay in projects, investments and delivery of things by Russia which has been cause of
concern for china also. Many such incidents obviously made the Chinese rethink the granting
of consideration contracts to the Russian firms6. On the issue of expansion of the organisation
it is also a very complex issue because of regional dynamics, rivalries and other issues. The
Mongolia, Afghanistan and Belarus seem to uninterested in getting a membership in the
3
India's foreign minister S Jaishankar arrives in Moscow to attend Shanghai Cooperation Organisation,
https://www.wionews.com/
4
P. Stobdan, Central Asia: Democracy, Instability and Strategic Game in Kyrgyzstan, Pentagon Press, New
Delhi, 2014
5
“Engaging with Russia: The Next Phase”, A Report of the Trilateral Commission, The Triangle Paper No. 59,
Washington, DC, 2006, p. 124.
6
Ji Zhiye, “China Russia Bond”, Contemporary International Relations (CIR), CICIR, Beijing, 17(1), 2007, p.
13
organisation due to various reasons and regional dynamics 7. Generally speaking, the identity
and purpose of the SCO are still uncertain and there are many ambiguities in its future. The
unprecedented changes in the current world order, partly because of geopolitics crisis in
central Asia, partly because of US unilateral views8.
7
Alexander Lukin, “The Shanghai Cooperation Organization: What Next?” Russia in Global Affairs, 5(3),
2007, pp. 140-156.
8
“US Policy shifts in Central Asia”, International Herald Tribune, February 3, 2008.
9
https://criterion-quarterly.com/
extremism and separatist tendencies. China is also very trade oriented as after the soviet
isolation, the central Asia has emerged as a market for technology and energy resources and
china has an eye on that market due to its high energy needs and it also acts as an alliance
against west. Russia has also demilitarized its own border with China and now it has acted in
a way that makes one believe that Chinese–Russian border disputes have been settled for now
at least. This demarcated borders and reducing of troops has been very effective in containing
terrorists and separatists in central Asia by legitimising the borders and effectively naming
groups and individuals as terrorists through common consensus. They have agreed on a
common strategy to fight separatists and Islamists collectively than fighting with each other.
It was also mentioned in SCOs charter in 2002 about the maintenance of peace and security
across the borders and in turn it would also help in containing the huge drug trafficking in the
region from Afghanistan which is used to fund extremism and terrorism in the region. In
2014 Sushma swaraj the foreign minister of India also voiced that “This summit of the SCO
is taking place at a crucial juncture in global politics with many nations facing violence and
conflict. We need to reflect collectively on all these events of deep geopolitical significance 10.
India is deeply concerned at the ongoing conflict in Iraq and Syria. We need to evolve a
common strategy to safeguard the borders in Afghanistan and neighbouring countries from
any spill over effect of these conflicts11”.
problem of separatism, terrorism and religious extremism. The Centre’s staff comprised 30
officials from the member states13. It has developed a single register of terrorists and
organisations working against the interests of SCO countries. Its aim was to maintain
relations with the relevant institutions and organisation; help in combating terrorism by
information sharing. Another aim was to jointly draft various legal documents and make an
effective mechanism for fighting terrorism. Another practical way by which SCO is fighting
against terrorism is by anti terror exercises. These are the way to improve the capability of
member nations to tackle terrorist threats, learn from experience of member states in weapon
handling, planning, command and control, logistics and manoeuvres. This also helps in
confidence building among member nations and also help in coordination among member
nations. But through the charter of SCO it is clear that it will not make itself a military
alliance but is an open alliance for promotion of peace and stability. It has also established
partnership with various organisations also like United Nations, Association of Southeast
12
https://www.outlookindia.com/photos/topic/The-Shanghai-Cooperation-Organization-SCO/104020?photo-
238900
13
Elena Boykova, The Russian Vision of BRICS in the Context of a Multipolar Order in Asia
Asian Nations (ASEAN), Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO), Commonwealth of the
Independent States (CIS) etc. the SCO plays a very important in counter terrorism but is still
very weak and is described as something which looks good on paper only. It lacks the
practical cooperation and needs to work on it quite aggressively to achieve something big in
that region14.
14
Zhao Xiaodong, The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and Counter Terrorism Cooperation
government has also been trying to maintain the dialogue between Asia and Europe through
SCO. The Russia has called on
increasing oil exports to Asia up to 30%. Unlike china, Russia is cautious of large scale
migrations from china if free trade zones are allowed so, it is rather working in a control way
to implement free trade Zones. The Russia is looking for maintaining its influence in the
region and its priority seems to be transport sector for countering china and benefiting Russia
at the same time16. There has been a very positive in promoting the trade between the
countries and particularly in that region. The SCO has progressed due to its open nature and it
has always tried to balance the role of its actors this is helping it to transform the region
efficiently. The problems also remain here to balance out perspective of stronger members
such as China and Russia. The SCO can really progress if the member states come out of
their regional self interests and work together to carry out reforms and much needed
development.
There has also been an attempt to promote the shanghai spirit and to work on promotion of
culture and diversity among the nations. The cultural ministers of nations talked on creative
inter state cultural cooperation. "India has a long history of cultural exchanges with China
and other SCO member states," said Mahesh Sharma, India's minister of culture. “Ministers
agreed to work on various spheres including cultural programmes, art festivals, foreign
15
Dr Palitha Kohona, One Belt One Road – A Unique Opportunity For Sri Lanka, https://www.indepthnews.ne
16
Alyson J. K. Bailes, Pál Dunay, Pan Guang and Mikhail Troitskiy, The Shanghai Cooperation Organization,
SIPRI Policy Paper No. 17
language courses and student exchange programmes. The focus has also been to cooperate on
the cultural exchange of these highly diverse countries17.
CONCLUSION
The SCO has evolved over the years and it has had its up and downs. The SCO has struggled
over the years to balance the interests of the powerful members. It has always struggled to
find a balance between Chinese aspirations of expansionism and Russian traditional influence
in the region. There have also been contradictory interests of its member states and which
sometimes stall the growth potential of the organisation. There have also been apprehensions
regarding the selfish interests of china in the region and the exploitative tendencies of the
resources, labour and environment. Secondly another major problem with SCO is that it looks
very good on paper but practically hasn’t been able to realise the potential of the region and
the projects undertaken by this organisation hasn’t been completed in a time bound and
efficient manner. Another major problem is that Russia views china as an adversary in that
region but is not willing to show some extra interest to counter that influence by projects and
investment18. So, it is difficult to see SCO as organisation similar to NATO and EU. It has not
been able to much of in terms of controlling terrorism and drugs in that region. The various
agreements signed remain only as a paper tight resolution with very little achieved practically
in the region. There has not been any practical strategy for countering terrorism in
Afghanistan after the withdrawal of US troops. The truth remains that it is only due to
Chinese work and investments the organisation has remained alive. There has also been an
internal tension in the region regarding the growing influence and promotion of Chinese
language. So, SCO has been slowly evolving over the time but it needs reform and proactive
steps to actually do something constructive for the region.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
17
SCO to deepen cooperation in cultural exchanges, https://www.financialexpress.com/, New Delhi | June 11,
2018 2:40 AM
18
Nirmala Joshi, The Shanghai Cooperation Organization: An Assessment, Vivekananda International
Foundation, 2015
Bruce Pannier, “How to be the next Central Asian leader”, RFE/RL’s Turkmen Service,
March 26, 2016
P. Stobdan, “Modi’s Visit to Central Asia”, IDSA Comment, July 6, 2015 at
https://idsa.in/idsacomments/ModisVisittoCentralAsia_pstobdan_ 060715.
India's foreign minister S Jaishankar arrives in Moscow to attend Shanghai Cooperation
Organisation, https://www.wionews.com/
P. Stobdan, Central Asia: Democracy, Instability and Strategic Game in Kyrgyzstan,
Pentagon Press, New Delhi, 2014
“Engaging with Russia: The Next Phase”, A Report of the Trilateral Commission, The
Triangle Paper No. 59, Washington, DC, 2006, p. 124.
Ji Zhiye, “China Russia Bond”, Contemporary International Relations (CIR), CICIR, Beijing,
17(1), 2007, p. 13
Alexander Lukin, “The Shanghai Cooperation Organization: What Next?” Russia in Global
Affairs, 5(3), 2007, pp. 140-156.
“US Policy shifts in Central Asia”, International Herald Tribune, February 3, 2008.
https://criterion-quarterly.com/
ARIEL PABLO SZNAJDER, Chinaís Shanghai Cooperation Organization Strategy,
journalofIPS/spring2006/Sznajder_SCO
http:www.mea.gov.in/speeches/12 September 2014, accessed 7 October 2014.
https://www.outlookindia.com/photos/topic/The-Shanghai-Cooperation-Organization-
SCO/104020?photo-238900
Elena Boykova, The Russian Vision of BRICS in the Context of a Multipolar Order in Asia
Zhao Xiaodong, The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and Counter Terrorism
Cooperation
Dr Palitha Kohona, One Belt One Road – A Unique Opportunity For Sri Lanka,
https://www.indepthnews.ne
Alyson J. K. Bailes, Pál Dunay, Pan Guang and Mikhail Troitskiy, The Shanghai Cooperation
Organization, SIPRI Policy Paper No. 17
SCO to deepen cooperation in cultural exchanges, https://www.financialexpress.com/, New
Delhi | June 11, 2018 2:40 AM
China’s Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Strategy by Ariel Pablo Sznajder Editor: Andrès
Gentry