Assignment 2

Covid19

Sumeet Kant Kaul

G20088

Introduction

The economy of country was already in doldrums before the pandemic hit us .

Trade growth %
20

10

0
Ma Ap Ma Ju Ju Au Se Oc No De Ja Fe Ma Ap
-10

-20

-30

-40

-50

-60

-70

Source :Crisil Research

Electricity generation is going to fall by 5.5% and commercial vehicle sales by 31% and gold imports
fell by 38.4% in FY20--21 according to CMIE.

Asurvey of more than 5000 households stated by RBI mentions depleted consumer confidence to
53.8 whhereas 100 is the distinction between pessimisn and optimism.

Real gdp growth is 3.09% EMIS intelligence.

Since GDP would be down by 35%, tax collection would fall by much more
than this amount, as essentials would come with a low tax rate of zero
rate. Currently, whatever production is taking place, it is mostly
essentials. As per my calculations, revenues of centre and states could fall
by 50% to 8% of the reduced GDP of 2020–21.  So, from Rs 32 lakh crore,
it would be down to about Rs 10.4 lakh crore. It may be noted that last
year, the tax/GDP ratio was around 16%. This cannot even meet the
current levels of expenditures much less the burden of new expenditures
due to COVID-19. No wonder the state governments are complaining of
shortage of resources and they have to carry much of the burden of
taking care of the people.

Construction Equipment Trend

90000 30
80000 77953
20
70000
57724 10
60000
50000 0
40000 -10
30000
-20
20000
10000 -30
0
0 -40
Constuction Equipment
Business

CE Volume %growth

Source :Crisil Research

National HighwayTraffic growth %

500
437
400

300

200

100
84
45 48
0 18
-23
Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20
-100 -88

-200

Source: National Payments Corporation of India, CRISIL Research