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thu-BAV VNM
thu-BAV VNM
thu-BAV VNM
LIABILITIES
55% 55%
4% 6%
23% 28%
12% 10%
15% 11%
1% 0%
45% 45%
0% 0%
36% 33%
35% 31%
1% 3%
0% 0%
2% 2%
3% 2%
4% 7%
100% 100%
32% 32%
11% 8%
1% 1%
1% 1%
1% 1%
4% 4%
0% 0%
7% 4%
3% 12%
0% 0%
1% 1%
1% 1%
0% -
0% -
0% 0%
1% 0%
1% 1%
0% -
30% 33%
70% 67%
47% 39%
- 0%
0% 0%
0% 0%
3% 5%
19% 18%
10% 10%
10% 7%
1% 5%
70% 67%
100% 100%
2014 2015 2016 2017
CASH FLOWS FROM OPERATING
ACTIVITIES
Net Profit before tax 7,613.37 9,367.14 11,237.63 12,228.95
Depreciation & Amortization 1,032.73 1,097.08 1,190.84 1,299.87
Allocation of goodwill - 18.36 18.36 24.62
Allowances and provisions 3.79 9.75 24.85 9.21
Unrealised foreign exchange (gains)/losses -8.40 3.97 -1.32 3.72
Losses on disposals of tangible fixed assets and
12.30 12.20 23.31 11.63
construction in progress
Dividends and interest income -498.73 -558.44 -660.18 -770.13
Losses from other investing activities 18.36 18.04 - -
Share of profit in associates and jointly controlled
-59.89 -12.90 -16.48 -67.13
entities
Interest expense 39.58 31.28 -46.50 29.44
Operating Profit/Loss before changes in WC 8,153.11 9,968.11 11,863.52 12,770.17
Change in receivables -130.43 165.56 -183.07 -1,599.15
Change in inventories -545.32 -498.54 -1,036.89 318.47
Change in payables and other liabilities -40.78 484.34 330.39 958.73
Change in prepayments 5.51 -35.87 84.05 -10
Change in trading securities - 121.141 11.421 -
Interest paid -34.74 -27.33 -34.2 -65.13
Income Tax paid -1,521.91 -1,805.61 -1,771.24 -1,933.51
Other receipts from operating activities 46.12 - - -
Other payments on operating activities -603.23 -715.65 -874.2 -837.99
Net cash inflows/outflows from operating
5,328.32 7,659.15 8,389.78 9,601.59
activities
CASH FLOWS FROM INVESTING
ACTIVITIES
Payments for additions to fixed assets -858.95 -1,067.84 -1,141.61 -2,672.99
Collections on disposals of fixed assets 53.89 44 50.33 120.71
Increase in time deposits -3,349.60 -1,309.44 -1,379.90 -218.25
Payments for purchases of debt instruments of
-300.92 -190.00 - 300
other entities
Collection of loans granted to associates - 13.902 - 1.87
Payments for investments in other entities -2.76 -80.16 -8.1 -86.83
Proceeds from matured bonds - - - -
Collections on investment in other entities 19.75 13.9 1.8 29.54
Receipts of interest and dividends 560.479 460.88 602.14 754.96
Increase in cash from a subsidiary 86.867 - - 6.21
Net cash inflows/outflows from investing
-3,872.72 -2,126.68 -1,945.79 -1,770.99
activities
CASH FLOWS FROM FINANCING
ACTIVITIES
Proceeds from capital contribution by minority
70.42 107.48 354.97 -
interest
Payments for share repurchases -0.32 - -1.176 -5.98
Proceeds from short-term and long-term
1,490.97 3,973.22 4,071.89 2,777.05
borrowings
Payments to settle loan principals -233.88 -3,782.74 -4,260.05 -4,224.19
Payments of dividends -4,000.51 -6,002.26 -7,238.48 -5,805.81
Net cash inflows/outflows from financing
-2,673.32 -5,704.30 -7,141.00 -7,535.35
activities
Net cash flows during the year -1,217.71 -171.83 -697 295.26
Cash and cash equivalents at the beginning of
2,745.65 1,527.88 1,358.68 655.42
period
Effect of exchange rate fluctuations on cash and
-0.186 -2.278 -0.0356 -0.71
cash equivalents
Currency translation differences 0.13 4.918 -6.221 13.36
Cash and Cash Equivalents at the end of
1,527.88 1,358.68 655.42 963.34
period
Percentage change in Cash Flow
2018 2019 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
43.05% 38.85%
29.65% 27.31%
47.48% 46.82%
25.09% 25.49%
0.012 0.008
5.05 5.30
6.3 5.9
58 62.3
13.7 11.4
27 32.1
4.3 7.9
8.06 7.40
45.285 49.298
4% 7%
4% 7%
31% 30%
416.385 235.606
43.05% 38.85%
29.65% 27.31%
47.48% 46.82%
5.61 4.50
0.0115 0.0082
2.0 1.9
1.6 1.4
40 45
0.9217 1.5302
7,082 5,861
4000 4167
29.46 20.48
1.92% 3.47%
3.01 -1.19
9.78% -17.25%
5,805,807,717,105 7,256,172,407,500
1,451,278,520 1,741,411,583
302,773,000,000,000 208,969,000,000,000
208625.01 119999.78
2014 2015 2016 2017
Net sales 34,976.93 40,080.38 46,794.34 51,041.08
COS (22,668.45) (23,817.97) (24,458.63) (26,806.93)
Gross profit 12,308.48 16,262.41 22,335.71 24,234.14
Financial income 573.57 648.98 722.56 816.32
Financial expenses (interest expenses) (81.70) (162.84) (102.45) (87.04)
Net financial income 491.87 486.14 620.11 729.28
Selling expenses (4,696.14) (6,257.51) (10,758.75) (11,536.53)
General and administration expenses (795.37) (1,232.72) (1,053.25) (1,267.61)
Share of net profit from associates 59.89 12.90 16.49 67.13
Other income 244.64 95.92 287.31 423.63
EBIT 6,816.97 8,772.18 10,523.71 11,430.00
Depreciation and Amortization 1,032.73 1,097.08 1,190.84 1,299.87
EBITDA 7,849.70 9,869.26 11,714.55 12,729.87
Accounting profit before tax 7,613.37 9,367.14 11,447.62 12,650.04
Corporate income tax (1,545.17) (1,597.59) (1,873.80) (1,950.77)
Net profit after tax 6,068.20 7,769.55 9,363.83 10,278.17
Minority Interests (0.60) (3.86) 13.50 (17.49)
Equity holders of the Company 6,068.81 7,773.41 9,350.33 10,295.67
14.65%
Note Rate
2018 2019
% of Sales 52.85% Rev whole vietnam dairy industry 2,131 2,399
Rev growth whole industry 12.58%
mkt share VNM 54.20% 55.20%
Cost of debt 5.03% sales growth VNM 5.10%
% of Sales 22.97%
% of Sales 2.32%
Growth rate
Tangible fixed assets (PPE, net)
2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F
rate w PPE
rate w PPE
d development fund at 9/2019: VND1,992b and constant for the next 5 years
2014 2015 2016 2017
CASH FLOWS FROM OPERATING
ACTIVITIES
Net Profit before tax 7,613.37 9,367.14 11,237.63 12,228.95
Change in non-cash items 539.74 619.34 532.89 541.22
Depreciation & Amortization 1,032.73 1,097.08 1,190.84 1,299.87
Unrealised foreign exchange (gains)/losses (8.40) 3.97 (1.32) 3.72
Losses on disposals of tangible fixed assets and
construction in progress 12.30 12.20 23.31 11.63
Dividends and interest income (498.73) (558.44) (660.18) (770.13)
Losses from other investing activities 18.36 18.04 - -
Share of profit in associates and jointly controlled
entities (59.89) (12.90) (16.48) (67.13)
Interest expense 39.58 31.28 (46.50) 29.44
Operating Profit/Loss before changes in WC 8,153.11 9,968.11 11,863.52 12,770.17
Change in receivables (130.43) 165.56 (183.07) (1,599.15)
Change in inventories (545.32) (498.54) (1,036.89) 318.47
Change in payables and other liabilities (40.78) 484.34 330.39 958.73
Change in prepayments 5.51 (35.87) 84.05 (10.00)
Change in trading securities - 121.14 11.42 -
Interest paid (34.74) (27.33) (34.20) (65.13)
Income Tax paid (1,521.91) (1,805.61) (1,771.24) (1,933.51)
Other receipts from operating activities 46.12 - - -
Other payments on operating activities (603.23) (715.65) (874.20) (837.99)
Net cash inflows/outflows from operating
5,328.32 7,659.15 8,389.78 9,601.59
activities
CASH FLOWS FROM INVESTING
ACTIVITIES
Payments for additions to fixed assets (858.95) (1,067.84) (1,141.61) (2,672.99)
Collections on disposals of fixed assets 53.89 44.00 50.33 120.71
Increase in time deposits (3,349.60) (1,309.44) (1,379.90) (218.25)
Payments for purchases of debt instruments of
(300.92) (190.00) - 300.00
other entities
Collection of loans granted to associates - 13.90 - 1.87
Payments for investments in other entities (2.76) (80.16) (8.10) (86.83)
Collections on investment in other entities 19.75 13.90 1.80 29.54
Receipts of interest and dividends 560.48 460.88 602.14 754.96
Net cash inflows/outflows from investing
(3,872.72) (2,126.68) (1,945.79) (1,770.99)
activities
CASH FLOWS FROM FINANCING
ACTIVITIES
Proceeds from short-term and long-term
1,490.97 3,973.22 4,071.89 2,777.05
borrowings
Payments to settle loan principals (233.88) (3,782.74) (4,260.05) (4,224.19)
Payments of dividends (4,000.51) (6,002.26) (7,238.48) (5,805.81)
Net cash inflows/outflows from financing
(2,673.32) (5,704.30) (7,141.00) (7,535.35)
activities
Net cash flows during the year (1,217.71) (171.83) (697.00) 295.26
Cash and cash equivalents at the beginning of
2,745.65 1,527.88 1,358.68 655.42
period
Effect of exchange rate fluctuations on cash and
cash (0.19) (2.28) (0.04) (0.71)
equivalents
Currency translation differences 0.13 4.92 (6.22) 13.36
Cash and Cash Equivalents at the end of
1,527.88 1,358.68 655.42 963.34
period
Rate
% of corporate income tax (tax paid/ total tax amount) 99.12%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
101.82% 100.47%
Rate
Const
Const
Const
Const
Const
Change
Change
Change
Const
Const
Average growth rate 2.59%
Long-term debt
Annual Year of Portion in
Creditors Currency 12/31/2018
Interest Rate Maturity Total Debt
Sumitomo Mitsui Banking
Corporation, Ho Chi USD 4.11% 2020 266,167,500,000 97.26%
Minh City Branch
Cost of
Debt
Total Debt (Short-term borowings + Long-term borrowings) 1,275,846,571,690
Portion of short-term borrowings 78.55% 5.28%
Portion of Long-term borrowings 21.45% 4.15%
Cost Of
31/12/2018 VND
Debt
Actual Long-term
5.40% 331,523,919,361
borrowings
5.40%
4.15%
Cost Of
31/12/2018 VND
Debt
5.75%
5.28%
Cost of
Total Debt
5.03%
Time period Date Index Level Price (Stock i)Market return (Monthly)
1 1/2/2014 504.5 135,000
2 2/6/2014 554.7 140,000 9.94%
3 3/3/2014 573.4 141,000 3.37%
4 4/1/2014 583.9 141,000 1.83%
5 5/5/2014 564.9 137,000 -3.25%
6 6/2/2014 556.8 124,000 -1.43%
7 7/1/2014 578.1 122,000 3.82%
8 8/1/2014 593.9 135,000 2.74%
9 9/3/2014 640.8 112,000 7.89%
10 10/1/2014 609.3 107,000 -4.91%
11 11/3/2014 603.2 105,000 -1.00%
12 12/1/2014 568.0 99,500 -5.83%
13 1/5/2015 544.5 96,000 -4.15%
14 2/2/2015 570.4 103,000 4.76%
15 3/2/2015 590.7 107,000 3.57%
16 4/1/2015 538.9 105,000 -8.77%
17 5/4/2015 545.1 106,000 1.14%
18 6/1/2015 575.0 106,000 5.49%
19 7/1/2015 591.5 114,000 2.87%
20 8/3/2015 609.5 119,000 3.04%
21 9/1/2015 562.3 99,500 -7.74%
22 10/1/2015 563.5 101,000 0.22%
23 11/2/2015 602.8 117,000 6.96%
24 12/1/2015 570.4 122,000 -5.37%
25 1/4/2016 574.4 126,000 0.70%
26 2/1/2016 540.6 119,000 -5.89%
27 3/1/2016 561.6 130,000 3.88%
28 4/1/2016 558.4 134,000 -0.56%
29 5/4/2016 599.1 142,000 7.28%
30 6/1/2016 619.9 141,000 3.47%
31 7/1/2016 640.3 143,000 3.30%
32 8/1/2016 648.4 155,000 1.26%
33 9/1/2016 669.2 154,000 3.21%
34 10/3/2016 683.1 140,500 2.07%
35 11/1/2016 676.6 141,900 -0.94%
36 12/1/2016 666.5 135,200 -1.49%
37 1/3/2017 672.0 126,700 0.82%
38 2/2/2017 703.2 133,000 4.64%
39 3/1/2017 709.5 130,800 0.90%
40 4/3/2017 722.4 144,300 1.81%
41 5/3/2017 719.5 148,300 -0.39%
42 6/1/2017 741.8 151,900 3.09%
43 7/3/2017 778.9 157,000 5.00%
44 8/1/2017 786.8 151,100 1.02%
45 9/1/2017 788.7 151,500 0.24%
46 10/2/2017 802.2 148,500 1.71%
47 11/1/2017 842.7 155,000 5.05%
48 12/1/2017 960.3 196,000 13.96%
49 1/2/2018 995.8 211,500 3.69%
50 2/1/2018 1,099.7 203,000 10.43%
51 3/1/2018 1,115.8 196,000 1.47%
52 4/2/2018 1,196.6 199,700 7.24%
53 5/2/2018 1,029.1 184,500 -14.00%
54 6/1/2018 992.9 168,200 -3.52%
55 7/2/2018 947.2 171,000 -4.60%
56 8/1/2018 952.8 166,900 0.59%
57 9/4/2018 975.9 156,700 2.43%
58 10/1/2018 1,012.9 136,300 3.79%
59 11/1/2018 908.0 114,300 -10.36%
60 12/3/2018 951.6 133,600 4.81%
Stock (i) return (monthly)
3.70%
0.71%
0.00%
-2.84% SUMMARY OUTPUT
-9.49%
-1.61% Regression Statistics
10.66% Multiple R 0.513245037
-17.04% R Square 0.263420468
-4.46% Adjusted R Square 0.250498021
-1.87% Standard Error 0.043847959
-5.24% Observations 59
-3.52%
7.29% ANOVA
3.88% df SS MS
-1.87% Regression 1 0.03919254669 0.039193
0.95% Residual 57 0.10959067781 0.001923
0.00% Total 58 0.1487832245
7.55%
4.39% Coefficients Standard Error t Stat
-16.39% Intercept 0.011156868 0.00571221579 1.953159
1.51% X Variable 1 0.332814975 0.07371408791 4.514944
15.84%
4.27% Beta 0.3328
3.28%
-5.56%
9.24%
3.08%
5.97%
-0.70%
1.42%
8.39%
-0.65%
-8.77%
1.00%
-4.72%
-6.29%
4.97%
-1.65%
10.32%
2.77%
2.43%
3.36%
-3.76%
0.26%
-1.98%
4.38%
26.45%
7.91%
-4.02%
-3.45%
1.89%
-7.61%
-8.83%
1.66%
-2.40%
-6.11%
-13.02%
-16.14%
16.89%
F Significance F
20.38472 3.227735E-05
1,741,411,583
15.04%
FCFF 2018 2019F
EBIT*(1-Tax rate) 10,261.58
EBIT 12,077.44
Tax rate 15.04%
Changes in NCC 1,341.22
Changes in WC (7,186.64)
CAPEX Investment (2,847.26)
FCFF 1,568.90