5 STEPS  to develop a

Theory of Change
1. Identify a Long Term Goal
The first step is to agree on and get specific about the long term goal(s). This is the ultimate change
that the programme or initiative is hoping to achieve. For example, a country where children are
protected.

2. Map the causal pathway

Once a goal is known, the next step is to identify conditions that must be in place to achieve the goal.
For example, in order to protect the nation's children, children have to know their rights and the
government has to also recognize these rights and put policies in place. These necessary conditions
(educating children on their rights and lobby and advocacy with policy-makers) would then be shown as
outcomes underneath the long-term outcome (protecting the nation's children).

However, not only does the pathway show the outcomes/preconditions, it also outlines the causal
linkages between the shorter-term, intermediate, and longer-term outcomes. The identified changes are
mapped – as the “outcomes pathway” – showing each outcome in logical relationship to all the others,
as well as chronological flow.

3. Develop Indicators
Every outcome/precondition should be accompanied by at least one indicator to measure
success.

4. Clarify Assumptions
At this step, all the underlying assumptions for the preconditions are clarifies. For example, one key
assumption could be that the national government actually prioritizes the rights of the child and sees
the importance of child protection.

5. Draft Narrative & Vizualisation

Once the outcomes pathway with the causal linkages have been mapped, the contextual and external
factors identified, assumptions clarified and indicators developed, all will be put together in a narrative
(with an accompanying visualization).

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