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Chapter-2 - Dividend Decisions
Chapter-2 - Dividend Decisions
DIVIDEND DECISIONS
• There are conflicting opinions about the impact of dividends on the value of the
firm.
– Relevance of Dividend decisions
– Irrelevance of Dividend decisions
Measuring Dividends
• Dividend Per Share (DPS)= Total Dividend
No. of Equity Shares outstanding
Rs. 10 Lacs
= =Rs 10 per share
1 Lac shares
✓ Firmannounces the no. of shares, range of buyback prices & time period
during which it will buyback the securities.
✓ Firm, thereafter, invites bids from shareholders- no. of shares and price, within
the price band, at which the investors are willing to sell.
✓ Based on the bids received, the final price is decided (usually the highest price
at which the target no. of shares is achieved).
Open Market Method –Thru Book Building
Current Market Price Rs 530/- No. of
Investor Bid Price Shares
Price Band Rs 540 – 560/- A 550 10000
Target No. of Shares 2,00,000 B 555 2000
C 540 50000
D 545 7500
E 550 24000
F 540 80000
Bid Price No. of Shares Cum. G 550 6000
H 555 85000
540 134500 134500
I 540 4500
545 19500 154000 J 545 2500
550 46000 200000 K 550 1000
Before After
Market Value of Assets (Rs. Mn) 400 400
No. of Equity Shares outstanding (in Mn) 10 11
Share Price (Rs. Per Share) 40 36.36
➢ Reverse Split: 1:10 reverse split means every 10 shares are replaced by 1 new share.
Impact of Stock Dividends/ Stock Splits
Example: The stock of Country Inn Hotels is currently trading at Rs. 20 per share. What would
happen to the stock price, if the company announces:
a. Stock dividend of 20%
b. 3:2 Stock Split
c. 1:3 Reverse Stock Spilt.
a. Stock dividend of 20% : 1 new share for 5 held
• Market Value of 5 Shares before stock dividend: 5*20 = 100
• No. of Shares after Stock Dividend: 5+1 = 6
• Market Value per share after Stock Dividend: 100/6 = Rs.16.67
b. 3:2 Stock Split : Shareholder holds 3 shares instead of 2shares
• Market Value of 2 Shares before stock spilt: 2*20 = 40
• No. of Shares after Stock Spilt: 3
• Market Value per share after Stock spilt: 40/3 = Rs.13.33
c. 1:3 Reverse Stock Split : Shareholder holds 1 share instead of 3shares
• Market Value of 3 Shares before Reverse Stock Spilt: 3*20 = 60
• No. of Shares after Reverse Stock Spilt: 1
• Market Value per share after Reverse Stock spilt: 60/1 = Rs.60.00
Empirical evidence of Dividend Policy
• Dividends tend to follow earnings
– Firms in high growth stage pay low/ no dividends, while stable firms with
large cash balances and fewer projects pay out higher dividends.
Dividend Decision - Overview of Theories
❑Under Perfect Markets
• Dividends have an impact on stock prices:
✓ Walter’s Model
✓ Gordon’s Model
• Dividends do not have any impact on stock prices:
✓ MM Dividend Irrelevance hypothesis
r
(E-D)
D k
P = +
k k
Present Value of infinite Present Value of infinite
stream of constant stream of returns from
Dividends retained earnings
where,
P = Market Price per share
D = Dividend per share
E = Earnings per share
r = firm’s average rate of return
k = firm’s cost of capital
1James Walter, “Dividend Policy: Its Influence on the Value of
the Firm”, Journal of Finance (May 1963)
Walter Model (Contd.)
Basic EPS Rs 20 Rs 20 Rs 20
Data
r 18% 14% 10%
k 14% 14% 14%
Payout (%) Case I Case II Case III
r>k r=k r<k
0% Rs 184 Rs 143 Rs 102
25% Rs 173 Rs 143 Rs 112
50% Rs 163 Rs 143 Rs 122
75% Rs 153 Rs 143 Rs 133
100% Rs 143 Rs 143 Rs 143
✓Case I (r > k): Growth Firms
• Growth firms are those firms which expand rapidly because of ample investment
opportunities yielding returns higher than the opportunity cost of capital.
• Firms are able to earn more than what the shareholders can earn on their own.
• Such firms should retain all of its profits i.e. Dividend payout ratio (D/P) should
be Zero, at which the Market Price shall be maximum.
Case I (r > k): Firm is able to earn more than what the shareholders can earn on
their own.
➢ Such firm should retain all of its profits i.e. Dividend payout ratio (D/P) should
be Zero, at which the Market Price shall be maximum.
Case III (r < k): Firm does not have projects which can earn as much as the
minimum hurdle rate (k).
➢ Such firm should distribute all its profits (D/P = 100%) for market Price to
be maximum.
Case II (r=k): Firm earns at a rate equal to the minimum hurdle rate (k).
➢ Such firm is indifferent.
Walter Model - Illustration
Excel Industries has reported an EPS of Rs. 10/-. It earns @ 15% on its assets while its cost of
capital is 12.5%. If Walter’s model is used, what should be the optimum dividend payout
policy? What would be the stock price? What would be the impact on stock price, if the dividend
payout is changed to 30%?
(10- 0) 0.15
0 0.125 = Rs. 96/-
P = +
0 .1 2 5 0 .1 2 5
• If the payout is 30% (instead of 0%), the stock price would be:
0.15
(10- 3)
3 + 0.125 = 24 +67.20 = Rs. 91.20
P =
0 .1 2 5 0 .1 2 5
Criticism of Walter’s Model
• The financing of investment proposals only by retained earnings and no external
financing is seldom found in real life.
• The assumptions of constant ‘r’ and constant ‘k’, is also unrealistic and does not
hold good.
• As more and more investments are made, the risk complexion of the firm will
change and consequently the k may not remain constant.
DIVIDEND RELEVANCE: GORDON’S MODEL
• Myron Gordon has also proposed a model suggesting that the dividend policy
is relevant and can affect the value of the share and that of the firm.
EPS = Rs. 10/- ; r=15%; 10%; 5%; k = 10%; b = 40% :DPS = (1- b)EPS =6
(E-D)r
E1 (1-b)
P0 ( Wa l t e r ) = D + k P0 ( G o r d o n ) =
k k k -b r
• The price falls when dividend is paid, as such payment reduces the market value of the
firm’s assets.
• Thus, in perfect capital markets, when dividend is paid, the share price drops by the
amount of dividends when the stock begins to trade ex-dividend.
• But the company’s shareholder does not incur a loss.
• Before dividends, the market price was Rs. 42/- while after the dividend payout , the market
price is Rs. 40/- and has Rs 2/- in cash as well.
2. Repurchase equity (instead of Dividend)
• Now, assume the company does not pay dividends but instead repurchases its equity in the
open market.
• How will repurchase affect the share price?
• With initial price of Rs. 42/- per share, the firm would be able to buy 0.476 Mn shares (Rs.
20 Mn/Rs. 42 ) out of 10 Mn shares.
• Although the market value of assets fall, but the no. of shares outstanding also falls, the
two changes offset each other, so there is no impact on the market value of the firm’s
equity shares.
2. Repurchase equity (instead of Dividend)
• In the future, the company expects to generate Rs. 48 Mn in free cash flows, which can be
used to distribute as dividends over 9.524 Mn shares (10 Mn – 0. 476 Mn) i.e. Rs. 5.04 per
share each year.
• Thus, the market price after repurchase would be:
5.04
Prep = = Rs. 42/-
0.12
• By not paying dividends today and repurchasing shares instead, the company is able to
increase the dividend per share in the future.
• Increase in future dividends compensates the shareholders for loss of dividends today.
• Thus, in perfect capital markets, an open market repurchase has no effect on the stock price
– price is same as Cum- dividend price if dividend was paid instead.
2. Repurchase equity (instead of Dividend)
• Does the Investors’ wealth change – between dividends and repurchase?
• Assume an investor holding 2000 shares and does not sell the shares, the wealth remains the
same in either of the options
• The only difference is the distribution between cash and stock holdings.
• Thus, investors would prefer between cash and stock holding depending on whether they
requires cash or not.
2. Repurchase equity (instead of Dividend)
• Case 1: If the firm repurchases stock and the investor needs cash, he would sell the
shares.
– Investor would sell 95 shares (Rs. 4000 / Rs. 42 per share) to raise Rs. 4000/- in cash.
– Investor would be left with 1905 shares(2000-95) valued at Rs. 80,000/- (@Rs.42/- per
share)
– Thus, in case of repurchase, by selling the shares, an investor can create a
homemade dividend
• Case 2: If the firm pays dividend but the investor does not require cash, the
investor can buy more shares out of the dividends received.
– Investor would buy 100 additional shares (Rs. 4000 / Rs 40 per share)out of the
dividend of Rs. 4000 received.
– Investors’ shareholding would be 2100 shares(2000 +100) valued at Rs. 84,000/-
(@Rs.40/- per share)
2. Repurchase equity (instead of Dividend)
• Investors’ position would be:
If Co. pays Dividend & Shareholder does not If Co. Repurchases shares & Shareholder
require Cash requires Cash (Sell 95 shares)
(Buy 100 shares)
Stock 2100 @ Rs. 40 = Rs 84,000/- 1905 @ Rs. 42 ≈ Rs 80,000/-
Cash - 95 @ Rs. 42 ≈ 4000
Total Rs 84,000/- Rs 84,000/-
• By reinvesting the dividends or selling shares, investor can create any combination of cash &
stock.
• Hence, the investor is indifferent between the two modes of rewards (returning cash).
• Thus, in perfect capital markets, investors are indifferent between the firm distributing funds
by dividends or share repurchase. By reinvesting dividends or selling shares they can replicate
either payout methods on their own.
3. Raise cash and pay high Dividend
• Now assume the company wants to pay larger dividend (higher than Rs 2 per share)
• Instead of paying Rs 48 Mn in dividends from next year onwards (as assumed earlier), it
wants to pay Rs 48 Mn now, but the company has only Rs 20 Mn of excess cash.
• Hence, the company needs to generate Rs 28 Mn in cash.
• Option 1: Give up +ve NPV projects worth Rs 28 Mn. This would lower the value of firm.
• Option 2: Raise cash by selling equity.
✓ At Rs 42 per share, the firm can raise Rs 28 Mn by selling 0.67 Mn shares
✓ No. of shares outstanding now would be 10.67 Mn & dividend per share would be Rs. 4.50 per share. (Rs 48
Mn / 10.67 Mn shares)
• Under the new policy, the cum-dividend price would be:
4.50
P cum = 4.50 + = 4.50 + 37.50 = Rs. 42/-
0.12
• Thus, increasing dividends also has no effect on stock price.
Modigliani – Miller Dividend Irrelevance
Dividend Policy Initial Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 …….
Price
1. Pay Dividends out of Excess Cash Rs. 42/- 2.00 4.80 4.80 …….
2. Repurchase Shares Rs. 42/- 0.00 5.04 5.04 ..….
3. Increase Dividends & raise cash Rs 42/- 4.50 4.50 4.50 …….
• If a firm lowers current dividends and repurchases shares, it will have fewer shares, and so
will be able to pay higher dividends in the future.
• If a firm pays higher current dividends by issuing equity, it will have more equity and hence
lower free cash flows and hence would be able to pay lower dividends in the future.
MM Dividend Irrelevance: In perfect capital market, holding the investment policy fixed, the
firm’s choice of a dividend policy does not effect the firm’s stock price, and therefore is
irrelevant.
Dividend policy when dividends are irrelevant
• The assumptions needed to arrive at the dividend irrelevance proposition are too restrictive
and we may be tempted to reject it.
• But the theory does contain valuable implications:
➢ A firm that has invested in bad project, cannot hope to increase its value by paying higher
dividends.
➢ A firm with great investments may be able to sustain its value even if it does not pay any
dividends.
8. Assuming that rate of return expected by investor is 11%; internal rate of return
is 12%; and earnings per share is Rs 15, calculate the price per share by Gordon
Approach if dividend payout ratio is 10% and 30%.
9. RST Ltd. has a capital of Rs 10,00,000 in equity shares of Rs 100 each. The
shares are currently quoted at par. The company proposes to declare a dividend
of Rs 10 per share at the end of the current financial year. The capitalization rate
for the risk class to which the company belongs is 12%. What will be the market
price of the share at the end of the year, if –
(i) A dividend is not declared?
(ii) A dividend is declared?
(iii) Assuming that the company pays the dividend and has net profits of Rs.
5,00,000 and makes new investments of Rs. 10,00,000 during the period, how
many new shares must be issued using the MM Model?
10. Text Ltd. has 80,000 shares outstanding. The current market price of these
shares is Rs 15 each. The company expects a net profit of Rs 2,40,000 during
the year and it belongs to a risk class for which the appropriate capitalization
rate is 20%. The company is considering dividend of Rs 2 per share for the
current year.
(a) What will be the price of the share at the end of the year– if the dividend is
paid, and if the dividend is not paid?
(b) How many new shares must the company issue if the dividend is paid and
the company needs Rs 5,60,000 for an approved investment expenditure during
the year? Use MM Model for the calculation.