Future of Travel 2040

FUTURE OF TRAVEL 2040
June 2020
Introduction
World in 2040
Sustainable Future for Travel
Best in Class
Future Scenarios
INTRODUCTION
Scope
▪ This report leverages Euromonitor International’s research to look beyond the Disclaimer
impact of COVID-19 on the travel and tourism industry, and what trends will last Much of the information in this briefing
is of a statistical nature and, while
the test of time to 2040. Data are given in USD currency at fixed 2019 exchange every attempt has been made to
rates, at constant prices. All scenarios have been run for Q2 2020. ensure accuracy and reliability,
Euromonitor International cannot be
held responsible for omissions or
Tourism receipts errors.
Figures in tables and analyses are
USD4,517.4 billion calculated from unrounded data and
may not sum. Analyses found in the
Travel modes briefings may not totally reflect the
companies’ opinions, reader discretion
USD2,336.4 billion is advised.
Lodging
Travel USD799.3 billion
Moving beyond the Coronavirus
pandemic to look long term,
Euromonitor International asks what
Intermediaries will the future of travel be in 2040?
We assess what will be the big shifts
USD1,021.0 billion and drivers of tourism demand, what
a sustainable future looks like and
Attractions and experiences how brands and destinations will
adapt to life post-Coronavirus
USD296.8 billion (COVID-19). Finally, we take a
futuristic look at how travel brands
Source: Euromonitor International will digitally transform to deliver
value-added, consumer-centric
experiences that protect the triple
▪Forecast and scenario closing date: 4 May 2020 - the last update of data in the bottom line.
analytics tools.
▪Report closing date: 9 June 2020 - the date the report writing stopped.
© Euromonitor International TRAVEL: FUTURE OF TRAVEL 2040 PASSPORT 3

INTRODUCTION
Key findings
Crisis, what crisis? Despite the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent recession, key drivers such as
urbanisation, ageing population, the rise of Asia, digital transformation and
sustainability will continue to shape the way that we live, work and travel.
New normal Moving past the pandemic, the focus will gradually shift away from health and
safety protocols to the growing climate emergency, especially as the 2030
deadline nears and the need to reach net zero carbon emissions intensifies.
Radical change Younger generations such as millennials, and Generations Z and Alpha are more
engaged with the climate emergency and will help to bring about the radical
change in behaviour and attitudes as to how and why people travel.
Best in class Brands and destinations that are set to last the test of time are where digital
converges with experience and sustainability to create a powerful consumer offer
that mitigates the negative impacts and enhances the positive effects.
Future personal The future travel experience will be truly personalised, delivering seamless and
safe services that are high value, low touch and putting people at the centre.
Automated service New advances in technology will usher in a new era of automation, requiring
upskilling for staff to provide greater levels of high-quality, personalised service.
Track and trace Tracking climate impact across consumers, brands and destinations will be
critical for building in resilience, agility and speed to deal with future risks.
No room for complacency The alternative to achieving the 17 SDGs is unimaginable. The COVID-19
pandemic has been a wake-up call to the actions governments can undertake to
take back control to protect people and the next time, it may be to save the planet.

Introduction
World in 2040
Best in Class
Future Scenarios
WORLD IN 2040
Pandemic to dominate the global agenda in the short to mid term
▪ COVID-19 is set to dominate the political, social and Global Real GDP % Growth: 2019-2022
economic agenda for the short to mid term. 10.0
▪ High levels of uncertainty will prevail during this
8.0
time while the disease remains without a vaccine,
leading to potential new waves of infection with a 6.0
stop-start transition out of lockdown to the new
4.0
normal, where business as usual will not return.
▪ Euromonitor International’s macroeconomic view is 2.0
that there will be a deep recession in 2020 of -3.2%
% y-o-y growth
0.0
followed by recovery to positive real GDP growth in
2021, taking two years to recover to pre-crisis levels. -2.0
▪ In a C19 Pessimistic 3 scenario, which is the worst -4.0

case scenario - on a par with the Great Depression of
-6.0
the 1930s - global GDP would contract by -9.7%,
taking three years to recover to pre-crisis levels in -8.0
terms of actual economic output.
-10.0
▪ However, over the long term, the global economy is
forecast to continue its positive growth of over 3% -12.0
2019 2020 2021 2022
per year, spurred by increased economic activity
especially in emerging markets such as Asia Pacific, Baseline C19 Pessimistic 1
where hundreds of millions are expected to be lifted C19 Pessimistic 2 C19 Pessimistic 3
out of poverty into the middle class.
Source: Euromonitor International Macro Model

WORLD IN 2040
Asian century: economic power will continue to pivot east
▪ Even in the year of the global pandemic, Asia Pacific is

unlikely to fall into recession, with 0% forecast growth in
2020, thanks to countries such as India and China
remaining positive with 2% and 0.5% real GDP growth,
respectively.
▪ The region will continue to enjoy the highest economic
growth performance. By 2040, Asia Pacific is forecast to
account for 56% of global GDP, while Western Europe is
expected to lose 5% to reach an 11% share by 2040.
World % Real GDP Growth 2020 vs Forecast Average 2021-2040
Western Europe
North America
Middle East and Africa
Latin America
Eastern Europe
Australasia
Asia Pacific
World
-8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0
% y-o-y growth
Average 2021-2040 2020

WORLD IN 2040
Disposable income takes a hit but will recover after three years
Disposable Income Growth Performance by ▪ The global COVID-19 pandemic started in the real
Region: 2000/2020/2040 economy and will hurt consumers over the mid term,
5.0 reducing their disposable income as economies
contract in the worst global recession in the past 100
Asia Pacific
4.5 years.
4.0
▪ Even Asia Pacific, the world’s strongest growing
region, will take a hit in 2020, with disposable income
3.5 per capita falling by 0.6%.
Eastern
Forecast % CAGR 2020-2040
Europe ▪ However, the long-term trend is positive. Global

3.0
North average disposable income per capita is set to exceed
America USD10,000 by 2037 to reach USD10,799 by 2040.
2.5
Western
Europe Latin America ▪ Asia Pacific is forecast to see the fastest CAGR of 4.2%,
2.0 double the global average over 2020-2040, once
Australasia recovery from the pandemic is well established where
1.5
countries are already opening up.
1.0 Middle East ▪ North America will continue to offer the greatest
Africa
incremental growth over the forecast period to reach
0.5
USD57,124 by 2040, being six times greater in size
0.0
than Asia Pacific. Western Europe’s disposable
-1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 income per capita will remain constrained, at half the
Historic % CAGR 2000-2020 level of North America’s with less potential for
Source: Euromonitor International growth.
Note: Size of bubble reflects disposable income in USD in 2040.

WORLD IN 2040
Urbanisation all the way, despite health risks from over-crowding
Urban vs Rural World Population: 2020-2040 ▪ By 2040, the global population is forecast to reach nine
7.0 billion people.
▪ Despite urban living coming under scrutiny after
COVID-19 where densely-populated urban centres
6.0
contributed to the spread of the disease, the
overarching trend will remain mass urbanisation, a key
5.0 driver of economic development and job creation.
▪ The world’s rural population will start to stall and then
4.0 peak from 2025 and decline for the rest of the forecast
period. Meanwhile, the world’s urban population is set
Billion people
to account for 64% by 2040, with almost half of urban

3.0
residents living in Asia.
▪ Post-pandemic, it is likely that social distancing
2.0 measures will remain in place for a maximum of two
years while the race is on for a vaccine. It could be
1.0
potentially longer, depending on the duration of the
health crisis and emergence of new waves of infection.
▪ Cities with high density rates such as Barcelona and
0.0
London may well see greater restrictions imposed by
local governments in the future on residents and
Urban Population Rural Population visitors.
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN

WORLD IN 2040
Income slowly gravitates to younger generations
▪ By 2040, there is expected to be one billion baby Global Number of Households in Income
boomers, compared to 1.5 billion millennials and two Brackets A, B and C: 2020/2030/2040
billion Generation Alpha worldwide and the average 700
age of a global citizen will be 34 years old. Despite
the short- to mid-term rise in unemployment
600
following COVID-19 as not all jobs will be saved after
the global lockdown, younger generations will take
the lion’s share of income brackets A to C, as these 500
consumers are at the height of their careers and tend
to have higher disposable income.
Households (million)
400
▪ However, the number of baby boomer households
will remain sizeable and continue to increase, as they
tend to have paid off their mortgages and have no 300
dependents so will have more discretionary
spending power.
200
▪ Millennials are the most experiential and so their
interest in unique, authentic experiences is likely to
remain prevalent and passed onto their children like 100
Generation Alpha. Gen Z already show signs of
experiences that are sustainable with a strong social
0
voice. Post-COVID-19, brands with as strong sense of Baby Boomers Millennials Gen Z
purpose, that put people above profit, will resonate
2020 2030 2040
more with all generations.

WORLD IN 2040
Digital transformation to pick up the pace for emerging regions
% of Population Using the Internet: 2020-2040 ▪ Already in 2020, 55% of the

100 world was connected to the
internet, with technology hailed
as the great equaliser.
90
▪ In advanced markets such as
North America and Europe, the
80 rate of development is already
very advanced, with little room
70
for expansion and these regions
% population
will plateau from 2035 onwards

at around 95% penetration.
60
▪ Globally, 88% of the population
is forecast to be online. Following
50 COVID-19, the speed of
digitalisation may be expedited
as consumers embrace online
40
shopping, contactless payments
and touch-free services. 50.7% of
30 travel businesses plan to invest in
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
e-commerce and reshape or
Asia Pacific Australasia Eastern Europe implement digital strategies in
Latin America Middle East and Africa North America response to COVID-19 to prevent
Western Europe similar risks in future.

WORLD IN 2040
Consumer behaviour: identifying permanent shifts (1)
▪ After the pandemic, some changes in behaviour brought about in response to COVID-19 are expected to remain
permanent over the long term. The most important shift is the move by consumers online and the home
becoming the focal point, whether for shopping or work, leading to a commensurate decline in in-store
shopping. In the mid term, almost 60% of consumers said that they will reduce their international travel in the
mid term. The good news for the travel industry, but less so for the planet, is that consumers say that they will
return to international travel over the long term along with flying.
▪ The current hiatus could provide time for airlines to innovate and move to greener biofuels, and they are
pushing for changes to the CORSIA agreement to change the baseline for carbon emissions to 2019 levels. This
highlights the dichotomy at the heart of the industry in trying to balance economic, social and environmental
concerns. Post-pandemic, consumers are expected to remain aware of brands’ attitudes to staff and customers,
as the pandemic has also shone a light on the importance of people.

WORLD IN 2040
Consumer behaviour: identifying permanent shifts (2)
Expected Permanent Change in Consumer Behaviour Post-COVID-19

Increase online shopping
Work from home more
Increase in attention paid to how companies treat customers and employees during times of crisis
Buy more health and wellness-related products
Reduce in-store shopping
Buy more on products to improve life at home
Increased use of non-enclosed transport to get around (scooters, bikes, walking, etc)
Decrease overall carbon emissions due to limited travel
Reduce overall spending
Shift social activities to a virtual platform, rather than in-person
Spend more time in the home
Reduce international travel
More holidays taken close-to-home (eg, domestic destinations, within driving distance, etc.)
Increased use of personal cars (eg, rather than public transit)
Reduce travel via airplanes
Increase demand for plastic packaging
Decrease in demand for second-hand products
Avoid large events and gatherings
Reduce eating out and going to bars, cinema, theatre, etc
Reduce use of public transit
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
% of respondents
Source: Euromonitor International – Voice of Industry Survey, April 2020

Introduction
World in 2040
Best in Class
Future Scenarios
SUSTAINABLE FUTURE FOR TRAVEL
Brief timeline of a sustainable future
• 2016 Paris Agreement signed after COP21
• 2017 President Trump announces that he will pull out of the Paris Agreement
Withdrawal will not take place until after the November 2020 elections
• 2018 Publication of the IPCC special report on the need to limit global
warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, requiring “rapid,
far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society”
• 2020 Travel and tourism demand bottoms out following the global pandemic
• 2030 Deadline for the 17 Sustainable Development Goals
• 2040 Petrol and diesel car bans with the UK aiming for 2035
• 2050 Carbon neutrality with global net zero emissions
Image source: United Nations

Travel recovery post-COVID-19 to take minimum three years
▪ Travel and tourism has been the worst-impacted Global Arrivals Baseline and Pessimistic
industry by the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to Scenarios: 2019-2030
100% of destinations around the world 2,500
implementing some form of travel ban or restriction
to prevent the spread of the disease in 2020. Looking
at our baseline forecast, we expect a minimum drop 2,000
of 23% in international tourism demand in 2020,
followed by positive growth from 2021, leading to a
mid-term recovery by 2022 within three years. In a
worst case scenario, C19 Pessimistic 3, tourism 1,500
Trips (million)
demand could plummet by as much as 80% in 2020,
with potential recovery to pre-crisis within four
years. 1,000
▪ For destinations and local communities, the

shutdown has had a painful economic and social
impact, especially where there is a high dependency 500
for livelihoods and employment such as Small Island
Destinations. However, the pandemic offers a once in
a lifetime opportunity to reset and build back better, 0
putting sustainability and communities at its heart.
▪ Long term, arrivals are expected to grow between
Baseline C19 Pessimistic 1
3% to 4% per year from 2021, if travel restrictions
C19 Pessimistic 2 C19 Pessimistic 3
are removed after COVID-19 is contained.

Big data, analytics and AI to shape the future of travel businesses
Technology Impacting Travel Businesses in the Next Five ▪ Now more than ever travel brands
Years: 2025 are getting to grips with the speed of
change in terms of consumer
Big data and analytics behaviour and also operational
changes required post-COVID-19.
Artificial intelligence
▪ Digitalisation will speed up, as
Augmented reality/virtual reality brands aim to provide safe and
secure human interactions. In this
Internet of things new low touch world, sales and
booking will increasingly shift to
5G Networks
online and mobile, while transactions
Geospatial data including coordinates, become ever more contactless.
address, GPS, satellite or geotagging data
▪ Big data and analytics will remain the
Cloud top priority for travel businesses over
the next five years, with 65% of
Robotics/automation
respondents, given the importance of
Biometrics including facial and fingerprint providing personalised
recognition technology
recommendations and marketing,
Blockchain especially in light of consumer health.
▪ AI is also an important long-term
Autonomous vehicles
priority, such as digital assistants and
0 20 40 60 80 chatbots for personalisation and
% of respondents customer service, removing human
Source: Euromonitor International - Voice of Industry, May 2020 interactions.

Climate emergency and health crisis collide to drive purpose
▪ Pre-COVID-19, consumer
awareness about climate change
reached critical mass, with 65% of
global consumers in 2020 saying
that they were concerned. There
was also a great surge of support
for climate action, driven by Greta
Thunberg and flight shaming.
▪ In the immediacy of the pandemic,
health and safety concerns have
taken precedence, but the need for
sustainable, resilient businesses is
even greater during the rebuild.
▪ Younger cohorts are also more
engaged with social and
environmental causes, and a
permanent shift to interacting and
▪ 23.2% of global consumers buy from purpose-driven brands buying from brands with purpose
is already in motion where 23.2%
▪ 31.3% of global consumers buy from companies that support social and
of global consumers buy from
political issues aligned with their views
purpose-drive brands.
▪ 36.4% of global consumers are willing to offset their carbon emissions

Closing the gap between experiences and sustainability
Consumer Values by Generation 2020 ▪ Looking at global consumers in

90
2020, the majority of 77% value
real world experiences, where
80 older consumers show a strong
sense of responsibility to have a
70 positive impact on the
environment. However, in terms
60
of choosing sustainable travel
% of respondents
50
options, Millennials and Baby
Boomers exhibited the strongest
40 interest.
▪ Gen Z exhibited a stronger
30
interest in virtual experiences
along with Millennials.
20
▪ The gap is expected to continue
10 to narrow, as increasingly
consumers of all ages will seek
0 out sustainable travel
Generation Z Millennials Generation X Baby Boomers
experiences.
Have a positive impact on the environment Value real world experiences
Value virtual experiences Choose sustainable travel
Source: Euromonitor International - Consumer Lifestyles Survey 2020

Note: Sustainable travel includes nature, culture and eco-tourism

Introduction
World in 2040
Best in Class
Future Scenarios
BEST IN CLASS
Opportunity to reset and focus on the triple bottom line
▪ With over seven million cases of COVID-19 and over

433,000 people losing their lives, the pandemic has Consumers
shone a light on the fragility of life. As people have been ▪ Risk averse and cautious
asked to stay at home, there has been a shift towards ▪ Family focused
hyper-local commerce and local communities. Major ▪ Localisation
inequalities have been revealed as seen by the gaining ▪ Increased interest in saving
momentum of movements such as Black Lives Matter. ▪ Greater emphasis paid to how people are treated
▪ After the global shutdown, brands and destinations that Governments
are more likely to survive are the ones that showed
creativity, collaboration and empathy during the crisis. ▪ Balancing health, social and economic risks
Brands doubled-down on their core values to look after ▪ Travel restrictions and bans
their employees and protect their customers, putting ▪ Fiscal relief for businesses
▪ Sustainable development and 2030 Global Goals
people above profit. 43% of travel businesses expect
consumers to rate companies that put people first. Businesses
▪ As the new normal emerges, brands that are agile and ▪ Health and safety standards and protocols for staff
adapt quickly to the new measures and protocols, and and customers
embrace new ways of working will be best placed to ▪ Social distancing measures
succeed. Accelerating digital transformation, considering ▪ Lower operating levels to match reduced demand in
the customer journey through a COVID-19 lens and short to mid term
embracing sustainable practices will define success. We ▪ Investment in new equipment, innovation and
digitalisation
highlight brands that point to a post-COVID-19 era,
▪ Revenue diversification
where digital converges with experience, sustainability
▪ Reskilling the workforce
and purpose to create a powerful offer.

BEST IN CLASS
Faroe Islands: immersing visitors during the global shutdown
▪The Faroe Islands is an autonomous archipelago in

the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, located between
Scotland and Iceland, under the jurisdiction of
Denmark.
▪Like the rest of the world, the Faroe Islands has
closed its doors to visitors during the COVID-19
pandemic, with the earliest they may reopen being
30 June 2020. The Faroe Islands usually welcomes
around 60,000 visitors per year, and has 10
international flight connections. It has always been
creative with its destination marketing, and during
the COVID-19 crisis, it has introduced remote
tourism.
▪Visitors from around the world are able to remote
control one of the locals with the help of a games
console-style control stick, giving commands to them
such as run or jump while exploring with a Go-Pro.
Key takeaways
▪In a world of zero travel, immersive virtual reality
experiences are being offered by destinations,
Image source: Unsplash attractions and hotels to entice future visitors.

BEST IN CLASS
Red Sea Development Company: double-down on smart sustainability
▪Part of Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia’s luxury Red Sea

Development project covers 90 islands. Phase one of
the project is due for completion in 2022 and
finalisation in 2030, including 14 luxury hotels.
▪Sustainability is at the heart of its destination
management operations, using 100% renewable
energy and zero plastic, with the bold ambition to
deliver 100% carbon neutrality. The aim is to have a
net positive conservation impact of up to 30% over the
next two decades, and 70,000 jobs will be created
directly and indirectly.
▪The project is leveraging an extensive digital toolkit
including a virtual concierge using AI, AR/VR, IoT
sensors and biometrics to deliver personalised, guilt-
free experiences in a smart, sustainable way.
▪With 75% of the destination’s islands being
undeveloped, visitors will be able to enjoy nature and
biodiversity in a filter-free way.
Key takeaways
▪The use of personal carbon trackers to monitor and
measure each visitor’s personal impact may one day
become the standard for all destinations.
Image source: Unsplash

BEST IN CLASS
Marriott International: adapt and diversify revenue streams
▪Marriott is the world’s largest hotel chain with 30

brands worldwide, with sales of USD54 billion in
2019.
▪The impact of COVID-19 on global travel and tourism
has been unprecedented, with Marriott reporting a
drop in occupancy by 90% in April 2020, while one
quarter of its hotels were closed. Arne Sorenson,
President and CEO, spoke with empathy about the
need to protect staff, customers and communities.
▪The company launched Marriott on Wheels, a food
delivery service, in India to provide food to local
communities, cooked at its hotels, in partnership with
Swiggy, repurposing its operations during the
pandemic to find alternative revenue streams. It also
donated rooms to healthcare workers, provided
essential supplies such as cleaning products and
masks to frontline workers and allowed Bonvoy
loyalty members to donate to charities.
Key takeaways
▪Hospitality is a highly human experience, and Marriott
Image source: Unsplash has put people at the heart of its pandemic response.

BEST IN CLASS
Svart: giving back more to the local community
▪Svart, located in the Arctic Circle, aims to be the

world’s first energy-positive hotel when it opens in
2022.
▪The hotel was designed by Snøhetta in partnership
with Arctic Adventure of Norway. The world’s first
Powerhouse hotel embraces circular sustainability
practices, reducing its annual energy consumption by
a massive 85% and having a minimal impact on the
local environment and community.
▪Within five years, the hotel expects to produce
enough energy to operate its building and boat
shuttles off grid. Its ultimate goal is to be climate-
positive, producing more energy than it will use over
60 years, compared to a standard hotel.
Key takeaways
▪Everything from the architecture, restaurant, rooms,
transport and adventure activities has been
considered through a sustainable lens.
Image source: www.svart.no

BEST IN CLASS
Uber Air: innovation to tackle environmental impact head on
▪Best known for its ride hailing mobility solutions, Uber is

emblematic of the access economy and was valued at
USD82 billion in 2019 upon its IPO. It has now set its eyes
on disrupting air travel.
▪Faced with stricter regulation from the Carbon Offsetting
and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation
(CORSIA), coupled with flight shaming among consumers,
Uber Air tackles some of the root problems of air travel.
▪The company will deploy electric eVTOL aircraft from
2022 to eradicate carbon emissions, as well as take a
point-to-point approach, flying city to suburbs and
ultimately city to city with a 60-mile range going at
speeds of 150mph.
▪Uber Air will provide space for four passengers along
with one pilot for a planet-friendly flying experience,
supported by a network of Skyports. Launch cities
include Dallas, Los Angeles and Melbourne.
Key takeaways
▪Sometimes only innovation of product and service is the
way to tackle problems such as flying and taking cars off
roads.

BEST IN CLASS
Intrepid: sustainability is a journey over the long haul
▪Intrepid Travel is a pioneering travel operator running

hundreds of tours for small groups.
▪The company is B Corps certified and declared a
Climate Emergency, as part of Tourism Declares
initiative, and is taking sustainability to the mass
market.
▪Sustainability is at the company’s core, having achieved
carbon neutral status in 2010, offsetting 310,000
tonnes since then. Being B Corps, everything is
measured and accountable, using science-based targets
to measure impact. Part of its targets are to offset
125% of emissions and to transition to 100%
renewables by 2030.
▪In response to COVID-19, the company has suspended
its tours until 30 September 2020, offering its
customers flexible rebooking and future credit notes.
Key takeaways
“If we don’t act now, there will be no travel
▪Intrepid clearly sees sustainability as a journey that
in the decades and centuries to come." requires constant focus and adjustment. Working with
James Thornton, CEO, Intrepid like-minded partners such as Lonely Planet, ATTA and
Climate Action is a sure-fire way of delivering success.

BEST IN CLASS
MSC Cruises: embracing new technology to deliver on SDGs
▪Swiss cruise operator, MSC Cruises launched MSC

Grandiosa in 2019, one of the most environmentally-
friendly cruise ships in the world, although currently
not sailing until August 2020 due to COVID-19.
▪In 2020, the company announced that its cruise fleet
would be carbon neutral through carbon offsetting. It is
working towards the 2030 SDG agenda, with the aim of
achieving a 40% cut by 2030.
▪The company is also investing in the latest technology
for its future fleet, with five liquefied natural gas (LNG)
powered ships over 2022-2025 to help with the
transition to zero emissions.
▪On the MSC Grandiosa, the operator has married next-
gen technology with the latest in experiential
entertainment such as a spa, tapas bar, bowling alley
along with partners such as Lego and Cirque de Soleil.
A digital assistant on the app is on call for the 6,334
passengers.
Key takeaways
▪Investing in next-gen technology is critical in
accelerating the transition to clean transport and
Image source: MSC Cruises - YouTube energy solutions.

BEST IN CLASS
Case study: Enfuce - personalised climate impact tracking
▪My Carbon Action by Enfuce is due for launch in H1

2020 and uses game changing technology to provide
personalised carbon tracking.
▪Working with banks, merchants and retailers, it will
allow consumers to gain insights into the carbon
impact of their spending. Through its white label
solution, the app will measure an individual’s carbon
footprint across leisure and services, consumer goods,
mobility, household and food, taking into account
lifestyle habits such as diet. It will also make
recommendations that are 1.5°C compatible.
▪Ilona Kivimäki, Chief Product Owner of Sustainability
Services, said that consumers find it frustrating to
understand their climate impact. Meanwhile, only 18%
of travel businesses surveyed by Euromonitor offer
carbon emission tracking.
▪Enfuce Financial Services Ltd has collaborated with
consultancy D-mat, and used life cycle assessment
databases to ensure that results are rooted in science.
Key takeaways
▪Consumers value digital tools that empower them to
Image source: Enfuce lead the lifestyle they seek but in a sustainable way.

Introduction
World in 2040
Best in Class
Future Scenarios
FUTURE SCENARIOS
Introduction to the future of travel scenarios
People Space Digital
▪ Consumer-centric ▪ Climate positive ▪ Personalised

▪ Safe and secure ▪ Sustainable ▪ Seamless
▪ Emotion based ▪ Universal design ▪ Contactless
▪ Community based ▪ Inclusive ▪ Augmented
▪ Diverse ▪ High tech, low touch
▪ Predicting the future of hotels, airlines, online travel agents and mobility rests on three main pillars - people,
physical space and digitalisation. With these areas in mind, we have reviewed what the future product offer,
customer experience and service delivery will look like post-2030, as the world sharpens its focus on the 2030
sustainability agenda.
▪ Post-COVID-19, the travel industry will look very different yet familiar, having adopted higher levels of health
and safety regimes as well as accelerated digital transformation to remove unnecessary human interactions.
This will lead to a blending of the physical and virtual worlds especially for customer service.
▪ There may be a move to fewer holidays with greater value and purpose attached to them, yet physical
infrastructure such as hotels, airports, airplanes and cars will not undergo mass revolution, more a digital and
sustainability-led transformation.

FUTURE SCENARIOS
Hotel of the future: human-centric experiences
People
Experience
▪ Inclusive and accessible
▪ Personalised
▪ Sociable
▪ Contactless and seamless
▪ Transparent
Space
Sustainability
▪ Sustainable architecture
▪ Renewable energy
▪ Climate positive impact
▪ Brand partnerships
▪ Purpose-driven
Digital
Enhanced
▪ Cloud, AR/VR, Microsoft
Upon arrival at the hotel, technology will be woven seamlessly into the Hololens mixed reality, artificial
intelligence, digital assistant,
customer service to make it truly personalised.
robotics, biometrics, 5G and IoT,
autonomous wearables

FUTURE SCENARIOS
Hotel of the future: people-driven interactions
Consumer-centricity Empowering employees Digitally enhanced service

▪ Upon arrival at the hotel of the ▪ Staff will be a mix of young and ▪ Some guests will want total
future, guests will be met by an old. They will offer personalised connectivity, while others will
AI avatar concierge. concierge services to each group want some downtime, so there
▪ Guests will arrive without of guests, armed with mixed will be digital-free zones.
luggage as cases will have arrived reality headsets. ▪ Tables, walls and mirrors will be
in advance. Alternatively guests ▪ There will be a major brand connected. Augmented reality
will have rented clothes, shoes activation going on, such as a will show sunshine inside but
and toiletries directly from the pop-up Kit Kat café that will be outside it will be raining.
hotel, waiting for them in their changed and updated on a ▪ Augmented reality allows
room. regular basis to offer new curtains, paintings and furniture
▪ The hotel will be open to all sensory experiences. to update regularly.
including the local residents, ▪ The hotel will host local arts and ▪ Robotic doormen will carry
inclusive of disability and gender. crafts so that guests can cases, while 5G autonomous
▪ Guests will be non-traditional experience local culture directly vehicles are used to transport
families eg multi-generational, with staff acting as local guides. guests to local sites.
single parents, solo travellers. ▪ Meat-free alternatives such as ▪ Some guests may even have
Children will be coding in the co- insects and plants will be internal data chips or smart
working space. prominent on the menu along contact lenses for the ultimate
▪ Homeless people or those in with personalised eating plans. connected interaction.
need will be offered rooms to
stay in while unoccupied.

FUTURE SCENARIOS
Hotel of the future: modular and natural spaces
▪ Guests will enter a public space that

is a mix of indoor and outdoor, with
vertical walls on the outside and
inside, a roof-top garden with fruit,
vegetables and plants for use in the
hotel.
▪ The foyer will be accessible and
follow universal design, so that all
abilities, ages and genders are
catered to.
▪ The hotel will be 100% carbon
neutral, even climate positive,
generating more energy that it
creates, using 100% renewables and
being zero plastic.
▪ The hotel will be modular in design,
so that the shape of foyer and rooms
can be changed to suit what activities
are going on, eg one hour, it is a co-
working space, the next there is a
Guests will enter a light, spacious and natural lobby space that can music concert, followed by lifestyle
be customised to suit different times of the day. classes, a new parents’ club, or yoga.

FUTURE SCENARIOS
Future of air travel: seamless flow
People
Experience
▪ Personalised
▪ Consumer-centric
▪ Secure
▪ Touch-free
▪ Contactless
Space
Social
▪ Design orientated
▪ Safe and clean
▪ Sustainable
▪ Curated
▪ Sensory
Digital
Seamless
▪ AI, biometrics, IoT, robotics,
electric aircraft, drones,
Air travel of the future will be seamless, where technology will be exoskeleton suits for
deployed behind the scenes to make every stage frictionless, safe and maintenance staff, inter-
secure. operability, blockchain

FUTURE SCENARIOS
Future of air travel: fast, smooth and efficient
Frictionless Curation Digital identification

▪ Thanks to AI, everything will be ▪ Upon boarding the aircraft, all ▪ Personal data will be available
more personalised to people’s passengers will board in groups through CRM systems, biometrics
tastes and interests. and move to their relevant and AI for health and safety as
▪ There will also be a big push sections (no longer economy etc). well as to drive a seamless flow.
towards sustainability by ▪ Instead passengers will be ▪ Biometrics will be a key enabler
electrifying aircraft, and every boarded based on shared for providing a seamless travel
passenger will have access to interests, for example, book lovers experience, allowing travellers to
their own personal carbon with book lovers, techies with walk on board without the need
calculator to measure their techies, adventure fans together for showing a ticket, all done
impact on the environment. etc. through a unique personal digital
▪ Because of the move to electric ▪ There will be a café zone offering ID.
aircraft, planes will be much coffee, books and relaxing music. ▪ 5G and the Internet of Things will
smaller and fly shorter, more There will be a bar with louder be used at key touchpoints to
point-to-point routes. music. There will be a quiet zone facilitate travel through the
▪ Maximum number of passengers for business travellers, a family airport and onto the aircraft.
would be about 100. Supersonic entertainment zone, featuring ▪ Luggage, including hand luggage,
jet travel will make a comeback. games consoles, headsets and delivery will be automated.
Autonomous electric vehicles interactive experiences by
▪ No hand luggage may be allowed
(cars and buses) will shuttle National Geographic. There will be
in the cabin to free up space, or
people to and from the aircraft. a sleep zone, offering luxurious
travellers’ luggage will be sent on
single beds, or bunk beds.
in advance to their destination.

FUTURE SCENARIOS
Future of air travel: customised and enhanced passenger experience
▪ Windows will be large and

connected, also using augmented
reality to tell the story of
destinations that the plane flies
over, along with associated country
snacks, eg flying over France,
receive food from France.
Information will be overlaid on the
digital screen of the window to
inform passengers about countries
that are flown over.
▪ The flight attendant for boarding
will be a digital AI with one-to-one
human assistants for small groups
of travellers, offering customised
services, for example, answering
questions, providing info, updating
menu choices that have already
been submitted online. The plane
could even be flown pilot-free.
The décor and multisensory experience will vary for each
Robots will be used to carry
different passenger zone. At each seat, there will be a digital
luggage. Drones will deliver last-
assistant on the screen, powered by AI.
minute purchases to the aircraft.

FUTURE SCENARIOS
Future of urban mobility: sci fi turned reality
People
Experience
▪ Personalised
▪ Fast
▪ Efficient
▪ On-demand
▪ Point to point
Space
Streamlined
▪ Urban connected smart roads
▪ Downtown skyports
▪ Vertical farms
▪ Electric vehicle infrastructure
Digital
Connected
▪ Electric vehicles, inter-
connected mobility and
Driving along a motorway in the city on a smart road that uses IoT infrastructure through 5G and
and 5G, sending and receiving information between the road, the car IoT, eVTOLs, delivery drones,
and all the other cars. autonomous electric vehicles,
car-free zones

FUTURE SCENARIOS
Future of urban mobility: contextual and climate friendly
▪ Hiring the car for a day trip will be

for mixed purposes, part shopping,
part exploring, part business. The car
is driverless, so the seats inside the
car are in a configuration of four,
pointing inwards, around a
connected screen.
▪ There is an in-car digital assistant
that provides information, gives
directions, orders takeaway
burger/coffee, books a dinner
reservation, talks to the fridge at
home to order in pizza
▪ Car windows are also smart and
display information about what can
be seen outside, for example, the
wines of South Africa are sold
worldwide amounting to one billion
bottles.
▪ In the air above the car, there’s an
Digital assistant shows discounts and offers, for example, earn Uber Air aircraft and electric drones
100 more points by picking up a plant-based burger today. delivering parcels.

FUTURE SCENARIOS
Future online travel agent
People
Experience
▪ Personalised
▪ Emotive
▪ Attribute-led
▪ Customised
Space
Smart home
▪ Smart appliances
▪ Renewable energy
▪ Climate positive
▪ Science based
Digital
Connected
▪ AI, augmented reality,
biometrics, digital assistant,
A digital avatar guides a family in their smart home through their
natural language processing,
personalised choices during the inspiration stage of a trip, using emotion AI, biometrics,
emotion recognition software to match up preferences with travel transparent carbon tracking, big
products. data and analytics

FUTURE SCENARIOS
Future online travel agent: emotion-led destination mapping
Climate ready Perfect trip
▪ The family will all use an emotion recognition

headset to help match their emotional responses to
images of different holidays to find the best match.
Multiple images will be shown on screens, or
connected walls/mirrors. Augmented will allow
them to try before they buy, by providing a taste of
what the destination has to offer.
▪ Artificial intelligence will map emotions to
destinations, for example, off the beaten track,
friendly, comfortable, foodie heaven, Scandi, trendy,
place to be, eco guilt-free and climate positive. At the
end, the perfect destination will score 100% match
for personalised trip matching.
▪ All trips will be rated on their climate impact, traffic
lighted in green/orange/red in terms of
sustainability criteria such as energy, waste,
community impact and conservation.
▪ At the booking stage, they will book through an AI
avatar, using voice technology. They may book
through smart contact lenses or a biometric chip in
their hand for seamless payments.

FUTURE SCENARIOS
Future negative scenario: business as usual

FUTURE SCENARIOS
Positive scenario: targets on track

FUTURE SCENARIOS
Takeaways
The pandemic has ushered in a state of zero travel, but there are signs of opening up and within 3-4
years, tourism demand may return to pre-crisis levels. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity to rebuild
a travel industry that is fit for purpose and ensure a radical change in how and why people travel.
Doubling-down on the 2030 sustainability agenda will help to ensure long-term resilience, but equally
put communities and the environment at the heart of recovery.
Disposable income will remain a key driver of tourism demand especially in emerging regions
such as Asia. However, increasing consumer concerns about the environment and the value of
people will help the travel industry pivot to a more human-centric product experience and
service delivery. Digital transformation will help with this transition through the use of big data,
analytics and advances in AI to help brands and consumers take greater accountability.
An accelerated shift to a net carbon economy will be fundamental for travel brands and
destinations to undertake to help ward off the looming climate emergency. Having a more holistic
understanding of the positive and negative impacts of travel across the supply chain will be key to
ensuring that the right balance is struck, which only data and measurement can provide.
The path to 2040 will contain twists and turns, stops and starts. Post-COVID-19, a new pragmatic
mindset will be required, that embraces sustainability, purpose and digitalisation to deliver the
promises of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals, and leaves no-one behind.

FOR FURTHER INSIGHT, PLEASE CONTACT
Caroline Bremner
Head of Travel Research
caroline.bremner@euromonitor.com
https://www.linkedin.com/in/carolinebremner1/
Experience more...
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Future of Travel 2040

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FUTURE OF TRAVEL 2040

© Euromonitor International TRAVEL: FUTURE OF TRAVEL 2040 PASSPORT 3

© Euromonitor International TRAVEL: FUTURE OF TRAVEL 2040 PASSPORT 4

Pandemic to dominate the global agenda in the short to mid term

▪ In a C19 Pessimistic 3 scenario, which is the worst -4.0

© Euromonitor International TRAVEL: FUTURE OF TRAVEL 2040 PASSPORT 6

Asian century: economic power will continue to pivot east

▪ Even in the year of the global pandemic, Asia Pacific is

World % Real GDP Growth 2020 vs Forecast Average 2021-2040

-8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0

Average 2021-2040 2020

© Euromonitor International TRAVEL: FUTURE OF TRAVEL 2040 PASSPORT 7

Europe ▪ However, the long-term trend is positive. Global

© Euromonitor International TRAVEL: FUTURE OF TRAVEL 2040 PASSPORT 8

Urbanisation all the way, despite health risks from over-crowding

to account for 64% by 2040, with almost half of urban

© Euromonitor International TRAVEL: FUTURE OF TRAVEL 2040 PASSPORT 9

Income slowly gravitates to younger generations

© Euromonitor International TRAVEL: FUTURE OF TRAVEL 2040 PASSPORT 10

Digital transformation to pick up the pace for emerging regions

% of Population Using the Internet: 2020-2040 ▪ Already in 2020, 55% of the

will plateau from 2035 onwards

© Euromonitor International TRAVEL: FUTURE OF TRAVEL 2040 PASSPORT 11

Consumer behaviour: identifying permanent shifts (1)

© Euromonitor International TRAVEL: FUTURE OF TRAVEL 2040 PASSPORT 12

Consumer behaviour: identifying permanent shifts (2)

Expected Permanent Change in Consumer Behaviour Post-COVID-19

© Euromonitor International TRAVEL: FUTURE OF TRAVEL 2040 PASSPORT 13

Brief timeline of a sustainable future

• 2016 Paris Agreement signed after COP21

• 2030 Deadline for the 17 Sustainable Development Goals

• 2050 Carbon neutrality with global net zero emissions

Image source: United Nations

© Euromonitor International TRAVEL: FUTURE OF TRAVEL 2040 PASSPORT 15

Travel recovery post-COVID-19 to take minimum three years

▪ For destinations and local communities, the

© Euromonitor International TRAVEL: FUTURE OF TRAVEL 2040 PASSPORT 16

Big data, analytics and AI to shape the future of travel businesses

© Euromonitor International TRAVEL: FUTURE OF TRAVEL 2040 PASSPORT 17

Climate emergency and health crisis collide to drive purpose

© Euromonitor International TRAVEL: FUTURE OF TRAVEL 2040 PASSPORT 18

Closing the gap between experiences and sustainability

Consumer Values by Generation 2020 ▪ Looking at global consumers in

Value virtual experiences Choose sustainable travel

Source: Euromonitor International - Consumer Lifestyles Survey 2020

© Euromonitor International TRAVEL: FUTURE OF TRAVEL 2040 PASSPORT 19

Opportunity to reset and focus on the triple bottom line

▪ With over seven million cases of COVID-19 and over

© Euromonitor International TRAVEL: FUTURE OF TRAVEL 2040 PASSPORT 21

Faroe Islands: immersing visitors during the global shutdown

▪The Faroe Islands is an autonomous archipelago in

© Euromonitor International TRAVEL: FUTURE OF TRAVEL 2040 PASSPORT 22

Red Sea Development Company: double-down on smart sustainability

▪Part of Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia’s luxury Red Sea

© Euromonitor International TRAVEL: FUTURE OF TRAVEL 2040 PASSPORT 23

Marriott International: adapt and diversify revenue streams

▪Marriott is the world’s largest hotel chain with 30

© Euromonitor International TRAVEL: FUTURE OF TRAVEL 2040 PASSPORT 24

Svart: giving back more to the local community

▪Svart, located in the Arctic Circle, aims to be the

Image source: www.svart.no

© Euromonitor International TRAVEL: FUTURE OF TRAVEL 2040 PASSPORT 25

Uber Air: innovation to tackle environmental impact head on