library(readxl)

UKHP<-read_excel("C:/Users/IIMBG/Desktop/Eco session/Practical/UKHP.xls")

acf(UKHP$dhp,lag.max = 12)

pacf(UKHP$dhp,lag.max = 12)

arima ( UKHP$dhp , order = c(1,0,1))

ar11=arima(x = UKHP$dhp, order = c(1, 0, 1))

aic_table = array (NA ,c(6,6,2))

for (ar in 0:5) {

for (ma in 0:5) {

arma = arima ( UKHP$dhp , order = c(ar ,0,ma))

aic_table [ar+1,ma+1,1] = AIC( arma )

aic_table [ar+1,ma+1,2] = AIC(arma , k = log( nrow ( UKHP )))

which.min(aic_table[,,1])

which.min(aic_table[,,2])

arima(UKHP$dhp[UKHP$Month<="2015-12-01"],order=c(2,0,0))

ar2 = arima ( UKHP$dhp [ UKHP$Month <="2015-12-01"], order = c(2,0,0))

dynamic_fc = predict (ar2,n.ahead = 27)

par (lwd =2,cex.axis = 2)

plot ( UKHP$Month [300:326], UKHP$dhp [300:326], type = "l",xlab = "",ylab = "")

lines ( UKHP$Month [300:326], dynamic_fc$mean ,col=" blue ")

lines ( UKHP$Month [300:326], static_fc ,col="red")

lines ( UKHP$Month [300:326], dynamic_fc$mean,col=" blue ")