SECTION VI

MODELING & PREDICTION – TEST QUESTIONS

6.1. Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate performance of a system from component information can
be advantageously used even in situations where:

I. The system is complex

II. The components are interrelated
III. A small estimating error is required

a. I only
b. I and III only
c. II and III only
d. I, II and III

References: CRE Primer, Section VI – 38/39. 1980 Published CRE Exam, Question 112 (modified).
1976 Published CRE Exam, Question 89(modified).

6.2. Source(S) of field failure data include.

I. Warranty returns
II. Customer complaints
III. Field representative information
IV. Tests on purchased items

a. I and II only
b. II and III only
c. I, II and III only
d. I,II,III and IV

Reference: CRE Primer, Section VI-5.

6.3. Equal apportionment is a technique of determining:

a. Subsystem failure predictions

b. Failure risk assessment of subsystems
c. ARINC apportionments
d. Subsystem reliability requirements

Reference: CRE Primer, Section VI-50/51.

6.4. An excellent reference for the reliability prediction of electronic equipment is:

a. MIL-STD-756
b. MIL-STD-781
c. MIL-STD-785
d. MIL-HDBK-217

Reference: CRE Primer, Sections VI-40 (and other locations). 1980 Published CRE Exam, Question 10
(modified).
6.5. A reliability expression for three independent components in parallel with component reliability
R is:

References: CRE Primer, Section VI-11 (and logic). 1980 Published CRE Exam, Question 44 (slightly
modified). 1976 Published CRE Exam, Question 61 (modified).

6.6. If the elements in the following logic diagram are independent, reliability is:

a. 0.8486
b. 0.9412
c. 0.9960
d. 0.9987

References: CRE Primer, Section VI-7/14 & 30/33. 1980 Published CRE Exam, Question 45 (modified).

6.7. A System has three components having reliability values A, B, and C, These components can
operate either in series or parallel. Therefore, the reliability of the system, R, can be calculated from
which of the following equations?

a. I and IV only
b. II and III only
c. II and IV only
d. II, III and IV only

References: CRE Primer, Section VI-7/14. O’Connor Patrick, D.T., Practical Reliability Engineering.
1980 Published CRE Exam, Question 127 (modified).
6.8. A series system consists of the following independent components (units of time in hours):

What is the reliability of the system for 1000 hours of operation?

a. 0.9927
b. 0.9834
c. 0.9427
d. 0.9384

References: CRE Primer Section VI – 9. 1980 Published CRE Exam, Problem 1.

6.9. A system contains 3 identical motors of which 2 of the motors are in standby redundancy. A
standby motor is switched in by failure of the preceding motor. Assume the switching device has a
reliability of 1.00 and the motors have a constant failure rate of 0.04 per mission and motors cannot
fail while on standby, what is the system reliability?

a. 0.9604
b. 0.9964
c. 0.9999
d. 0.9990

References: CRE Primer, Section VI – 16/17. O’Connor, Patrick, D.T., Practical Reliability Engineering.
1980 Published CRE Exam, Problem 4 (slightly modified), 1976 Published CRE Exam , Question 154.

6.10. A System consists of 4 parallel units each having a reliability of 0.80. The system can still
complete its mission with only 2 units functioning. If the failure rate is constant and failures are
independent then the system reliability will be:

a. 0.4096
b. 0.5376
c. 0.8192
d. 0.9728

References: CRE Primer, Sections VI – 14. 1997 CRE Brochure, Question 9(modified and corrected).
6.11. Successful operation of systems S, illustrated below, required that at least 1 out of the through
paths be good. The 3 paths are ABC, AEF, and DEF:

If A and D each have predicted reliability of 0.95, and B, C, E, and F each have a predicted reliability
of 0.99., find the reliability (RS) of the system using Bayes’ Theorem. (You may use the
approximation for your calculations.)

a. 0.9997
b. 0.9000
c. 0.9962
d. 0.9700

6.12. A life test on 9 units produced the following times to failure:

Assume that a normally distributed wearout model applies, and that the variance of this
distribution is known to be hours. At what time (tw) would you replace these units to be
at least 90% confident that the reliability of the units remains at least 0.99?

References: CRE Primer Section VI – 44/45. ASQ CRE Old Brochure , Question 23.

6.13. A system has three components in active parallel. The system functions properly if at least one
of the components functions properly. Components that function properly are statistically
independent; however, if one component fails, it causes the other two components to fail with
probability, R, of each component is 0.9, and p is 0.7. The reliability of the system is:

a. 0.970
b. 0.899
c. 0.989
d. 0.912
References: CRE Primer, Section VI – 20 and III -63 and a couple of good reliability engineers. ASQ
CRE Old Brochure Question 7 (slightly modified).

6.14. The reliability block diagram of a system is given in the following figure with component
reliabilities given in each circle.

The reliability of the system is:

a. 0.847
b. 0.823
c. 0.792
d. 0.686

References: CRE Primer, Section VI – 21/24. 1997 ASQ CRE Brochure Question 10.

6.15. Given components with the following reliabilities:

R1 = 0.99, R2 = 0.98, R3 = 0.97

Determine the following system reliability.

a. Rs = 0.97
b. Rs = 0.93
c. Rs = 0.98
d.Rs = 0.99

References: CRE Primer, Section VI – 7/14 and 30/33. 1976 Published CRE Exam, Question 53
(slightly modified).

6.16. Given mean-time-to-failure for three components as M1=100, M2=500 hours, M3= 1000 hours;
what is the mean-time-to-failure of the system if the system if the three components are in series?

a. 160 hours
b. 100 hours
c. 77 hours
d. 13 hours

References: CRE Primer, Section VI – 9. 1976 Published CRE Exam , Question 59 (modified).
6.17. Three functional configuration options which are basically comparable in cost are being
considered for a particular segment of a system. These options are:

All equipment (A, B, C, D, E, and F)operate independent of each other and have predicted reliability
valures are indicated on the diagrams. Which one of the three options is the most reliable?

a. Option III
b. Option I
c. Option II
d. Either Option I or Option III

References: CRE Primer, Sectopm VI – 7/14 and 30/32. 1976 Published CRE Exam, Question
76(modified).

6.18. Two basic types of redundancy are:

a. Acticve and standby

b. Parallel and switchover
c. Parallel and series
d. Priori and parallel

References: CRE Primer, Section VI – 14/19(and logic). 1976 published CRE Exam, Question 92
(slightly modified).

6.19. For a high compression aircraft air conditioning system, the MTBF is 100 hours. The mena life
is allocated for four serial units comprising the toal system. The unit failure rates are then weighted
as follows:

Based upon the above data, indicate which of the following is the correct calculation for one of the
units.

References: CRE Primer, Section VI – 51/53. 1984 published CQE Exam, Question 72, (sightly
modified).
1978 Published CQE Exam, Question 72.
6.20. If four components are in series with current and improved design reliabilities as shown below,
which single component change would result in the highest system reliability after redesign?

a. A c. C
b. B d. D

Reference: CRE Primer, Section VI – 7/9(and logic).

6.21. If four components are in parallel with current and improved design reliabilities as shown
below which signlw component change would result in the lowest system reliability after redesign?

a. A c. C
b. B d. D

References: CRE Primer, Section VI – 10/14 (and logic).

6.22. which of the following is a correct statement regarding Markov modelling?

a. The analysis process parallel that of FTA (fault tree analysis)

b. The analysis consider only operating and failed states
c. The final state total probability is often less than 1
d. The final probability of success is proportional to the total number of states

References: CRE Primer, Section VI – 34/35.

6.23. A system requires that two of four independent components connected in active parallel must
operate. What is the system reliability?

References: CRE Primer, Section VI – 14. The RAC Reliability Toolkit, Section 6 (contains a larger list).
6.24. The reliability block diagra below shows components A,B, C, D and E what is the reliability
formula for the system?

Reference: CRE Primer Section VI – 7/14 and 30/33(and logic).

6.25. To estimate the indivdual part failure rate using the parts stress method which of the following
is necessary?

I. Part base failure rate

II. Environmental stress factor
III. Part quality factor

a. I and II only
b. I and III only
c. II and III only
d. I, II and III

Reference: CRE Primer, Section VI – 41.

6.26. Failures occur on a system at 75, 79, 83, 85 hours. Assuming normality, one sided and
unbiased, the lower tolerance limit for 95% reliability with 90% cdonfidence for this sample is:

a. 96 hours
b. 60 hours
c. 100 hours
d. 63 hours.

References: CRE Primer, SectionsVI – 46/47 and X – 14. 1980 Published CRE Exam, Question 51
(slightly modified).

6.27. When a large number of components have been tested for a fixed time with no failures then:

a. The failure rate is indeterminable

b. The failure rate is at least an individual test time
c. The failure rate is equivalent to the sum of the individual test times
d. The Laplace rule of succession will apply

References: CRE Primer, Sections IV – 48 and VII – 45 (and logic). 1076 published CRE exam, Question
124.
6.28. A life test on nine units produced the following times to failure (All Values x hours).

Assume that a normally distributed wearout model applies and that the variance of this
distribution is know to be hours. At what poin (tw) would you replace these unit to be at
least 90 percent confident that the reliability remains ?

References: CRE Primer, Section VI – 44/45. O’ Connor, Patrick, D.T., Practical Reliability Engineering.
1976 published CRE exam, Question 155.

6.29. The Monte Carlo method refers to a technique that:

I. Insures random sampling from homogeneous populations

II. Provides maximum return by simulation
III. Simulates operations when random variations are an essential consideration
IV. Establishes quantitative values for unknown restrictive variables in linear programming

a. I and III only

b. II and IV only
c. III only
d. IV only

Reference: CRE Primer, Section VI – 38/39.

6.30.What is the reliability of the logic diagram below?

Where,

Assume that each component is statistically independent.

a. 0.8201
b. 0.7796
c. 0.6918
d. 0.6803

Reference: CRE Primer, Section VI – 30/33.

6.31. If a component has a known constant failure rate of 0.0037 failures per hour; the reliability of
two of these components in a series alignment would be:

a. Insufficient information to solve problem

b. 99.63 percent
c. Less than 99 percent
d. Dependent on the wearout rate of a mating subsystem

References: CRE Primer, Section VI – 8/9 (and logic).

6.32. The reliability of a complex system can best be improved by:

a. Selecting system components objectively

b. Multiple system testing (> 15 systems)
c. Well designed and executed preventive maintenance system
d. Including redundant concepts in design

References: CRE Primer, Section VI – 14/20(and logic).

6.33. The process of dividing up or budgeting the final reliability goal among the subsystems is know
as:

I. Reliability estimation
II. Reliability prediction
III. Reliability apportionment

a. I only
b. I and III only
c. II and III only
d. III only

References: CRE Primer, Section VI – 50/51.

6.34. If the probability of a car starting on a sub-zero morning is 0.6, and we have two such cars.
What is the probability that at least one of the cars will start on a sub-zero morning?

a. 0.92
b. 0.84
c. 0.81
d. 0.60

References: CRE Primer, Section III – 14 and VI – 10/14.

6.35. A non-repairable device that exhibits a history of failures consistent with a constant hazard
rate, suddenly fails prematurely. Which of the options might be a possible cause for the failure?

a. Material fatigue caused by cyclic loading

b. Burn-in
c. Overload situation
d. Substandard manufacturing quality

References; O’Connor, P.D.T., Practical Reliability Engineering, page 7.CRE Primer, Section VI –
20(partial explanation).

6.36. Develop a fault tree and analyze a car’s headlight system whose failure could be caused by a
battery failure (Pf=0.18), broken wire (Pf=0.07), or burned out headlamp (Pf=0.30). what is the
system’s probability of failure?

a. 0.466
b. 0.480
c. 0.0038
d. 0.0042

Reference: CRE Primer, Section VI – 11, 34/35 and IX – 46.

6.37. Which answer mathematically expresses the reliability of an active parallel system in which all
component reliabilities are unequal?

Reference: CRE Primer, Section VI – 7/14 and 30/33(and logic).

6.38. A satellite has two redundant control systems, each has a failure rate (lambda)=
failures/hour. If one of the systems fails, the rate for the remaining system increases to
failures hour. What is the reliability of the redundant control systems at 175,000 hours?

a. 0.8609
b. 0.7493
c. 0.690
d. 0.2507

Reference: CRE Primer, Section VI – 20.

6.39. The system below has perfect switching and equal failure rates of 0.007 failures/hour. What is
its reliability at 50 hours?

a. 0.952
b. 0.950
c. 0.948
d. 0.013

References: CRE Primer, Section VI – 16.

6.40. What is the reliability of the power switching system schematic below after 30000 hours?

The electric utility primary powr system (A) has a failure rate of 0.00001 failure/hour. The motor
generator backup system (B) has a failure rate of 0.0007 failure/hour. The standby system has an
imperfect switrch with 0.90 reliability per operation.

a. 0.75
b. 0.80
c. 0.87
d. 0.83

References: CRE Primer, Section VI – 19.

6.41. Complex bridge reliability can be calculated using what methods?

I. Stochastic probabilistic matrix

II. Bayes’ theorem
III. Boolean truth table
IV. Tie and cut sets
V. Markov Analysis

a. I, II, III and V only

b. I, II and III only
c. II, III and IV only
d. I, II, III, IV and V

References: CRE Primer, Section VI – 25/37 (partial coverage and logic).

6.42. A series system whose reliability at 5 hours is 0.80, has three components with these historical
constant failure rates:
Three of the four answers are the three component reliabilities at 5 hours. Which is incorrect?

a. 0.9123
b. 0.9283
c. 0.8780
d. 0.9816

References: CRE Primer, section VI – 51/53.

6.43. The Part Count method to estimate the reliability of electronic equipment:

I. Uses the sum of the individual failure rates of the components

II. Assumes a series reliability model
III. Requires the failure rates of the components to be equal, or nearly equal
IV. Is used for active redundant circuits

a. I and II only
b. I, II and III only
c. III and IV only
d. I, II, III and IV

References: CRE Primer, Section VI 0 40/41, Reliability Analysis Center Reliability Toolkit: Commercial
Practices Edition.

6.44. What is the Reliability of the following circuit at 100 hours?

a. 0751
b. 0.009
c. 0.406
d. 0.594

References: CRE Primer, Section VI – 11.

6.45. What is the reliability of the following circuit at 1000 hours?

 a. 0.131
b. 0.648
c. 0.264
d. 0.471

References: CRE Primer, Section VI – 9/14 and 33/33.

6.46. The Equal Apportionment Technique is:

a. A method to establish reliability goals of subsystems by assuming the reliability of all

subsystems are equal
b. A method to establish the reliability of the system based on knowing the reliabilities of the
subsystems
c. A method to apportion failures that occur during reliability testing to subsystems
d. A method to establish the correct position of electrical components on circuit boards based
on their heat potential, heat resistance, and reliability

References: CRE Primer, Section VI – 50/51.

6.47. A new system is to have 3 major components. Previous experience has produced the
following data:

The reliability of the new system is to be 0.80 in 50 hours. Use the ARINC apportionment technique
to determine the reliability goals of the subsystems.

References: CRE Primer, Section VI – 51/53.

6.48. The use of reliability data to predict when an individual unit will fail is an example of :

a. Use of reliability data for practical industrial or consumer applications

b. An improper use of reliability data and implications
c. The series reliability model using the exponential distribution
d. The use of normal distributions to predict life in the “wear-out” mode

References: CRE Primer, Sections II and IV – 43/44(and logic).

6.49. If the exponential distribution is assumed, what is the reliability prediction uncertainly?

a. The uncertainty is equal to the standard deviation of the normal distribution.

b. The uncertainty is equal to the square of the standard deviation of the normal distribution
c. The MTBF
d. The reliability prediction is a probabilistic determination, so uncertainty does not apply.

References: CRE Primer, Section VI – 44.

6.50. If a system consists of 2 major subsystems of the required reliability is 0.9, what is the allocated
reliability of each subsystem, assuming equal apportionment?

a. 0.30
b. 0.45
c. 0.90
d. 0.95

References: CRE Primer, Section VI – 48.

6.51. A person takes their car to the repair shop and it stops doing what it was previously doing. This
is an example of:

a. Catastrophic failure
b. Degradation failure
c. Intermittent failure
d. Drift failure

References: CRE Primer, Section VI – 4.

6.52. A computer simulation program to calculate complex reliability problems is:

a. Monte Carlo Simulation

b. Parts Count Prediction
c. GASP
d. GPSS

Reference: CRE Primer, Section VI – 38.

6.53. A sample of 30 light bulbs found the average life to be 1100 hours with a standard deviation of
25 hours. With a 95% confidence, we may conclude that at least 90% of light bulbs from this lot will
have at least a life of :

a. 1045 hours
b. 1048 hours
c. 1056 hours
d. 1059 hours

Reference: CRE Primer, Section VI – 46/47 and X – 14.

6.54. Given the following sample data:

We can state with a 90% confidence that at least 95% of the population will have values of:

References: CRE Primer, Sections VI – 46/47 and X – 15.

6.55. You decide to use the GIDER program. Before this program can be used fully, you must:

a. Make sure that your computer is capable of the speed and memory requirements
b. Participate in the program by providing data, reports, test results, etc.
c. Sign up at least 50% of your management personnel in the program
d. Have audio and visual equipment suitable to receive and distribute the program

Reference: CRE Primer, Section VI – 6.

6.56. The reliability model of an aircraft contains the aircraft engine in series with the hydraulic
system, even though the hydraulic system operates using an auxiliary power source. This is:

a. Correct, because the series reliability model is a representation of the components that
cause failure of the aircraft, not necessarily connected together.
b. Wrong, because an auxiliary power source is a stand-alone reliability system and should be
modeled by itself.
c. Correct, because the series reliability model is always used for complex assemblies like an
aircraft.
d. Wrong, because the air craft should have both series and parallel models used to model the
reliability

Reference: CRE Primer, Section VI – 7/14.

6.57. Your co-worker calculates the reliability of an assembly by adding up the individual reliabilities
of all possible combinations of the four individual components using the Boolean Truth Table
Method. How many possible combinations should be considered?

a. 2
b. 8
c. 12
d. 16

References: CRE Primer, Section VI – 25.

6.58. Transition probabilities in Markov analysis deals with:

a. Optimization of systems by determining the probability of success of corrective actions

b. The probability of changing operator’s abilities from unqualified to qualified by training
c. The probability of a project moving successfully from one goal to the next
d. The probability of moving from one system condition (or state) to another
Reference: CRE Primer, Section VI – 34.

6.59. The ARINC Apportionment Technique assumes:

a. The parallel system concept

b. The series system concept
c. Series-parallel redundant systems
d. Standby parallel systems
References: CRE Primer, Section VI – 49.

6.60. Your co-worker suggests that much of the reliability testing should be performed at
environmental condition less than the expected use conditions. You reject this concept because:

I. The reliability tests will take much longer.

II. The failure modes shown in low stress tests may not be the same as in the expected use
condition.
III. Lower stress testing will always show equal or better reliabilities than standard tests.
IV. Reliability tests must always be run at the expected use condition.

a. I, III and IV only

b. III and IV only
c. I II and III only
d. I, II, III and IV

References: CRE Primer , Section VI – 3/5.

6.61. Carrying an extra pocket calculator with you to the CRE certification test is an example of:

a. Standby Redundancy, Equal Failure Rates, Perfect Switching

b. Standby Redundancy, Equal Failure Rates, imperfect Switching
c. Shared Load System
d. Reliability concepts do not apply to this situation.

Reference: CRE Primer, Section VI – 16/20.