COVID-19 Update

Dr. Eileen de Villa

Medical Officer of Health
Toronto Public Health
October 7, 2020
 Estimated number of infections* based on potential
values of Rt, simulated for Oct 9, 2020
35000

30000

25000
Rt=1.25

20000 Rt=1.20

15000

Rt=1.15
10000
Rt=1.10
5000
Rt=1.05
Rt=1.00
0

05-Feb
09-Aug
19-Aug
29-Aug
08-Sep
18-Sep
28-Sep

27-Dec
21-Feb

01-Apr
11-Apr
21-Apr

07-Nov
17-Nov
27-Nov
07-Dec
17-Dec

15-Feb
25-Feb

06-Apr
16-Apr
26-Apr
02-Mar
12-Mar
22-Mar

01-May
11-May
21-May
31-May

08-Oct
18-Oct
28-Oct

07-Mar
17-Mar
27-Mar

06-May
16-May
26-May
16-Jan
10-Jun
20-Jun
30-Jun

06-Jan

26-Jan
10-Jul
20-Jul
30-Jul

*Including asymptomatic and symptomatic infections (note: reported case numbers underestimate the true number of infections) 2
Confirmed/probable COVID-19 case data Feb 21 – Sep 21, CIHI COVID Health System Capacity Tool v2.0
 Estimated number of infections at Rt 1.2 simulated for Oct 9,
2020, followed by subsequent reductions to Rt 1.0 and 0.9

End of Nov Rt=1.0 End of Dec Rt=1.0 End of Jan Rt=1.0

End of Dec Rt=0.9 End of Jan Rt=0.9 End of Feb Rt=0.9
Arrows indicate approx. date of intervention for Rt reductions to take place (~4 weeks)
14000

12000 End of
December
intervention
10000
End of
November
8000 intervention
End of
October
6000 intervention

4000

2000

05-Feb
19-Aug
21-Feb

09-Aug

29-Aug
08-Sep
18-Sep
28-Sep

15-Feb
25-Feb
01-Apr
11-Apr
21-Apr
01-May
11-May
21-May
31-May

08-Oct
18-Oct
28-Oct
07-Nov
17-Nov
27-Nov
07-Dec
17-Dec
27-Dec

06-Apr
16-Apr
26-Apr
06-May
16-May
26-May
02-Mar
12-Mar
22-Mar

07-Mar
17-Mar
27-Mar
10-Jun
20-Jun
30-Jun
10-Jul
20-Jul
30-Jul

06-Jan
16-Jan
26-Jan
3
Confirmed/probable COVID-19 case data Feb 21 – Sep 21, CIHI COVID Health System Capacity Tool v2.0