Catena 118 (2014) 124–135

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Catena
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/catena

Earthquake induced landslide susceptibility mapping using an integrated

ensemble frequency ratio and logistic regression models in West
Sumatera Province, Indonesia
Zahrul Umar a, Biswajeet Pradhan b,⁎, Anuar Ahmad a, Mustafa Neamah Jebur b, Mahyat Shafapour Tehrany b
a
Department of Geomatic Engineering, Faculty of Geoinformation and Real Estate, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Skudai, Johor, Malaysia
b
Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia (UPM), 43400 Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: An 8 Richter Scale (RS) earthquake struck West Sumatra on Wednesday, 30 September 2009, at 17.16 pm which
Received 6 November 2013 led to huge number of landslides. Hence a comprehensive landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) should be
Received in revised form 21 January 2014 produced in order to reduce the damages to people and infrastructures. In the international landslide literature,
Accepted 17 February 2014
various statistical methods such as frequency ratio (FR) and logistic regression (LR) have been widely used indi-
Available online 7 March 2014
vidually for LSM, but they have some weaknesses. FR which is able to perform bivariate statistical analysis (BSA)
Keywords:
assesses the influence of classes of each conditioning factor on landslide occurrence. However, the correlation
Landslide between the factors is mostly neglected. On the other hand, LR is able to analyze the relationship among the fac-
Earthquake tors while it is not capable to evaluate the classes of each landslide conditioning factor. This paper aims to propose
Ensemble an ensemble method of FR and LR in order to overcome their weak points. For LSM, a landslide inventory map
Geographic information system (GIS) with a total of 87 landslide locations was extracted from various sources. Then the landslide inventory was
Remote sensing (RS) randomly divided into two datasets 70% for training the models and the remaining 30% was used for validation
Indonesia purpose. The landslide conditioning factors consist of: altitude, curvature, river, SPI, rainfall, soil type, soil texture,
land use/cover (LULC), peak ground acceleration (PGA), geology, slope, aspect, lineament and topographic
wetness index (TWI). Four PGA of 7.5, 8, 8.6 and 9 were acquired and PGA 8 which was related to the 2009 earth-
quake was used to generate the model. Finally, the produced landslide susceptibility maps were validated using
an area under the (ROC) curve method. For the model which was derived by PGA 8, the validation results showed
84% and 78% success and prediction rates respectively. Furthermore, the prediction rates for the models made by
PGA 7.2, 8.6 and 9 are 79%, 78% and 81% respectively. The result proved the reasonable efficiency of the proposed
method for earthquake induced landslide susceptibility mapping. Also the proposed ensemble method can be
used in other hazard studies as it is capable to produce rapid and accurate assessment for disaster management
and decision making.
© 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Landslide is one of the dangerous natural hazards and its frequency
of occurrence is increasing worldwide (Jebur et al., 2013a; Pradhan and
Lee, 2010b; Yin et al., 2010). Landslides can cause damages to transpor-
tation, people and properties (Mohammady et al., 2012). The
Indonesian archipelago sits on the junction of the world's three great
plates namely the Indo-Australian plate, the Eurasia plate, and the
Pacific plate. The junction is situated in the subduction zone which
resulted in the formation of a volcanic island arc with moderate to
⁎ Corresponding author. Tel.: +60 3 89466383; fax: +60 3 89466459.
E-mail addresses: biswajeet24@gmail.com, biswajeet@lycos.com (B. Pradhan).
steep slopes (Karig, 1974). Volcanic eruption of the material has high
porosity, less compact and scattered in an area with a steep slope. If
this condition disturbs the hydrological balance, the area will be prone
to landslides (Van Asch et al., 1999). The territory of Indonesia in gener-
al and the Province of West Sumatra in particular are mostly hills and
mountains which are susceptible to landslides. Frequent and high
intensity precipitation, and earthquakes are naturally triggering factors
in landslide occurrence. Based on the review of the locations of land-
slides in Padang, the locations of landslides were estimated to be in
the line of the fault. The hills are composed of tuft and pumice rides
above andesitic rocks with 20 m thickness which made this area very
prone to landslides (Leo et al., 1980).
An 8 Richter Scale (RS) earthquake struck West Sumatra and its
surrounding areas on Wednesday, 30 September 2009, at 17.16 pm.
The epicenter of this earthquake was located at latitude 0° 84′ South,

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2014.02.005
0341-8162/© 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
 Z. Umar et al. / Catena 118 (2014) 124–135
and longitude 99° 65′ East, 57 miles South-West of the city of Pariaman,
with a depth of 71 km (Indonesia Meteorologi and Geophysics Body
(BMKG), 2009). The earthquake destroyed many districts/towns in
this area and caused large number of deaths (Satkorlak Disaster of
West Sumatra, 2009). In addition to the Semangko fault and the
meeting point between the two tectonic plates, the land of West
Sumatra is also composed of intermingling highlands; starting from
the Province of Aceh in the north to the Province of Lampung in the
south (Islam and Khan, 1986). Some of the volcanic mountains on this
highland are still active. The main rock types in this highland are also
truncated by fissures, and cracks. They are destroyed by earthquakes
and this led to the occurrence of many landslides in the region
(Wilkinson et al., 2012). For this reason, it is important to detect the sus-
ceptible areas in order to predict future landslides. Landslide susceptible
areas can be assessed and predicted through scientific analysis and thus
landslide damages can be decreased through the proper prevention ac-
tions (Ozdemir and Altural, 2012; Pradhan, 2013). Over the last decades,
numerous efforts have been devoted by many researchers to develop
landslide susceptibility maps worldwide using GIS (Lee and Pradhan,
2007; Pourghasemi et al., 2013; Pradhan and Lee, 2010a; Pradhan,
2013; Bui et al., 2013; Pradhan et al., 2010c, 2011).
The impact of earthquake on landslide occurrence has been reported
by many studies (Bai et al., 2012; Sidle and Ochiai, 2006; Zhou et al.,
2013). Yin et al. (2009) analyzed the distribution of landslides triggered
by the earthquake in Wenchuan County, Sichuan Province, China on 12
May 2008. About 20,000 fatalities have been reported due to the impact
of 15,000 landslides which was made by the Wenchuan earthquake. In a
recent paper, Oh et al. (2010) evaluated the impact of earthquakes
which is often aggravated by the triggering of landslides. They could
discover that the areas affected by landslides are similar to other parts
of the world and the size of the earthquakes has a direct effect on the
size of landslides. Probabilistic approaches are based on the observed
relationships between each conditioning factor and the distribution of
landslides. Remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system
(GIS) are efficient techniques for LSM and they are capable to identify
Fig. 1. Study area map.
125
the suitable and non-suitable areas for development activities (Gupta
et al., 2008; Jebur et al., 2013b; Saha et al., 2005; Sarkar and Kanungo,
2004; Van Westen et al., 2003, 2008). Many methods and techniques
have been proposed to evaluate landslide prone area using these two
techniques (Konadu and Fosu, 2009; Lee and Pradhan, 2007; Pradhan,
2010; Pradhan and Lee, 2010a,b).
The most popular methods for landslide hazard mapping are
deterministic approach (or safety factor) (Westen and Terlien, 1996),
heuristic approach (Barredo et al., 2000; Van Westen, 2000), statistical
approach (Luzi et al., 2000), support vector machine (SVM)
(Pourghasemi et al., 2013; Wan and Lei, 2009), neuro-fuzzy based
study (Akgun et al., 2012; Oh and Pradhan, 2011), fuzzy logic
(Pradhan, 2011), and artificial neural network (ANN) (Chi et al., 2002).
Although these methods are capable to recognize the susceptible areas
and produce the landslide susceptibility map, they have some disadvan-
tages that reduce the efficiency of the predictive models when applied
individually (Tien bu et al., 2012c,d). Some comparative studies have
been done in order to compare these methods and analyze their perfor-
mance such as Pradhan (2010) and Pradhan and Lee (2010a). In a recent
paper, Pradhan (2013) used decision tree (DT), SVM and adaptive neuro-
fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for LSM of Penang Hill, Malaysia in order
to compare their efficiency. Defining the rules for DT and selecting the
SVM parameters are hard task and it is very time consuming. Although
ANFIS performs better than the others, it entails a large number of pa-
rameters. All three methods require a very high speed computer which
can handle heavy analysis (Chau et al., 2005).
The ANN model is one the most popular methods in many fields and
especially in landslide analysis (Wan et al., 2010b). However, the ANN
model is considered as a black box which has complex process and its
performance is not easy to understand (Pradhan and Buchroithner,
2010). Also this method cannot produce accurate predictions in the
case that the validation dataset contains values outside the range of
those used for training. Also in the case that the large number of
variables is used, it makes the entire modeling process time consuming
(Ghalkhani et al., 2012). On the other hand, in the qualitative
126 Z. Umar et al. / Catena 118 (2014) 124–135

Table 1
Results of FR and LR in the case of each landslide conditioning factor.

Conditioning factor Class FR Logistic coefficient Conditioning factor Class FR Logistic coefficient

Altitude (m) 0–9.01 0 0.037 Geology 1 0 0.001

9.01–18.02 0 2 0
18.02–45.07 0 3 0
45.07–90.14 0 4 0
90.14–135.21 0 5 0
135.21–198.31 0.19 6 0
198.31–297.46 6.17 7 152.2
297.46–468.73 3.58 8 0
468.73–748.18 0 9 0
748.18–2298.62 0 10 0
Curvature Concave 1.79 0.113 11 0
Flat 0.08 12 0
Convex 1.64 13 0
Distance from river (m) 10 m 0 −0.035 14 0.84
20 m 0 15 0
40 m 0 16 0
100 m 0.62 17 0
200 m 1.01 18 0
400 m 2.16 19 0
1000 m 1.35 20 4.13
2000 m 0.18 21 0
4000 m 0 22 0
8000 m 0 23 5.63
SPI 5.99–7.39 1.34 −0.070 24 0
7.39–8.60 0.19 25 0
8.60–9.30 0 26 0.31
9.30–9.87 0.40 27 0
9.87–10.31 0.91 28 0
10.31–10.76 2.04 29 0
10.76–11.20 1.38 Slope (degree) 0 0.07 0.022
11.20–11.78 2.10 0–1.04 0
11.78–12.54 1.01 1.04–3.12 0.26
12.54–22.21 0.41 3.12–5.21 0.47
Rainfall (mm) 1752–2949 0 0.013 5.21–7.64 1.45
2949–2996 1.34 7.64–10.42 4.30
2996–3199 8.13 10.42–13.90 3.78
3199–3558 0.38 13.90–18.07 2.59
3558–3929 0 18.07–23.98 0.58
3929–4037 0 23.98–88.62 0.30
4037–4121 0 Soil texture Sandy gravel 2.76 0.031
4121–4240 0 Gravel sandy 0
4240–4420 0 Sandy clay 0
4420–4803 0 Clay 0
Soil type Pumiceous 3.185 0.001 Clay sand 0
Aspect −0.005
Flat 0.06
Dasite Phorphyry 68.03 North 1.08
Andesite Northeast 2.93
Miocene Granitic 0 East 6.85
Lithic Crystal Tuff 0 Southeast 1.67
Aluvium 0 South 0.76
Permian Metamorphic 0 Southwest 0.67
Colovium 0 West 1.84
Permian Limestone 0 Northwest 0.91
LULC Primary forest 1.01 −0.016 North 0.73
Secondary forest 1.40 Distance from lineament (m) 30–70 0 0.011
Village 0 70–100 0
Smallholder plantation 0 100–160 0
Open mining 0 160–220 0
Housing 0 220–290 0
Irrigated rice 0 290–380 0
Bush/shrub 0 380–520 0
PGA (8) 1 0 0.018 520–800 0
2 1.67 800–2000 0
3 4.07 2000–4000 4.85
4 0 4000–8000 0.68
8000–16,000 0
16,000–30,000 0
TWI 0–3.74 1.60 0.024
3.74–4.46 1.61
4.46–5.10 2.17
5.10–5.89 2.07
5.89–6.61 1.53
6.61–7.55 0.22
7.55–8.41 0.33
 Z. Umar et al. / Catena 118 (2014) 124–135
Table 1 (continued)
Conditioning factor Class FR Logistic coefficient
approaches such as analytic hierarchy process (AHP) the results will
mostly rely on the expert's knowledge and what is appropriate for
regional studies (Subramanian and Ramanathan, 2012). The require-
ment of hazard modeling is to find the global solution, not the method
that can be used just for one specific region. Similarly, fuzzy logic is
another method which has more understandable structure than the
ANN. This method has been employed in several landslide applications
and the results depend on the expert's knowledge which leads to a high
degree of uncertainty (Tilmant et al., 2002).
It is one of the important requirements for most multivariate
statistical approaches to define strict assumptions prior to the study
(Benediktsson et al., 1990). Moreover, it is difficult to use them for
real-life applications. The logistic regression (LR) could overcome
these drawbacks and produce an easy way of analysis which doesn't
require prior assumption and can be combined with other bivariate
statistical analysis (BSA) methods such as frequency ratio (FR)
(Ayalew and Yamagishi, 2005). The FR is another robust statistical
method which is able to perform BSA (Lee and Dan, 2005). This method
is capable to assess the impact of the classes of each conditioning factor
due to landslide occurrences (Lee and Pradhan, 2006). On the other
hand, the LR model is capable to perform multivariate statistical analysis
(MSA), however it doesn't analyze the influence of classes of each
conditioning factor individually on landslides (Yilmaz, 2009).
This paper aims to propose an ensemble method of FR and LR in
order to utilize both advantages of these methods and overcome their
weak points. So the combination of these two statistical methods can
generate the complete model that can assess the impact of conditioning
factors and also the impact of classes of each conditioning factor on
landslide occurrence. As mentioned earlier, Padang is highly susceptible
to landslide occurrence due to severe earthquake, hence, landslide
susceptibility analysis is needed in order to recognize prone areas and
prevent more development and urbanization in those areas. Through
proper strategies and plans, many lives can be saved and the degree of
damages may be decreased as well. The objective of this paper is to
generate a landslide susceptibility map of the Padang Pariaman District
using the ensemble FR and LR methods as a simple and understandable
probabilistic model.
2. Study area
2.1. Geographic
Geographically Padang Pariaman is located between latitude 0° 11′–
0° 49′ South and longitude 98° 36′–100° 28′East, encompassing
1328.79 km2 (Fig. 1). In total, the land area of Padang Pariaman is equiv-
alent to 3.15% of the land area of the West Sumatra Province. The capital
city of Padang Pariaman is Pariaman City which is approximately 55 km
from Padang, the capital city of West Sumatra. The topography of
Padang consists of land located on mainland Sumatra and six small
islands. Forty percent of the region is located near the beach, with an
average width of approximately 1–3 km from the beach and an eleva-
tion of 0–10 m above the sea level. The remaining 60% of this region is
located in the East, especially in undulating hills with an elevation of
10–1000 m above the sea level.
Padang has a tropical climate with a short dry season and this area is
also affected by the sea breeze. The temperature ranges between 24.4 °C
and 25.78 °C. The maximum temperature in general is 31.08 °C while
the minimum is 21.34 °C. The highest and lowest temperatures
occur in May and September and the relative humidity for this area
127
Conditioning factor Class FR Logistic coefficient
TWI 8.41–9.28 0.20
9.28–10.35 0
10.35–18.34 0
is 87.25%. The average rainfall in 2010 in this area is 427.7 mm
(Climatological Station, Sicincin, 2011).
2.2. Geology
Rock formations in the southern district of Padang Pariaman consist
of alluvium silt, sand and gravel (Leo et al., 1980). Also the rock forma-
tion in the Eastern and Northern parts of this area is a very complex
form of volcanic rocks such as hornblende Hypersthene pumiceous
Tuff, Fumiceous Tuff and andesite (Andesite). According to Westerveld
(1953) deposition tuff was probably derived from the last eruption of
the caldera Maninjau or fissure in Sumatera. In several locations pumice
tuff and andesite are mixed with layers of sand and gravel that are less
dense. This situation allows the disbursement during the tremor.
2.3. Tectonic setting of West Sumatera
The island of Sumatera sits on the top of the Southeast Asian plate,
which overrides the subducting Indian and Australian oceanic plates
that convergence obliquely at about 50 to 60 mm/year (Prawirodirdjo
et al., 2000). The Sumatran fault accommodates a significant amount
of the strike-slip component of the oblique convergence between the
Australian/Indian and Eurasian plates (McCaffrey, 1991; Sieh and
Natawidjaja, 2000). The 1900 km long Sumatran fault zone (SFZ) runs
along the back-bone of Sumatra, within or near the active-volcanic
arc. The Sumatran fault zone is highly segmented, and hence consists
of major segments ranging in length from 35 km to 200 km. Four of
them are located in the province of West Sumatera, namely Fault
Sumpur along 35 km, Sianok along 90 km, Sumani along 60 km, and
Suliti along 95 km. The Sumatran fault zone poses major hazards, partic-
ularly to people on and near the active faults. Since the 1890s, about 21
major earthquakes have ruptured the segments of the Sumatran fault
zone with magnitudes ranging from 6.5 to 7.7 (Sieh and Natawidjaja,
2000). Based on the focal depth and dip angle, subduction zones were
divided into interpolate (Megathrust) zones and interplate (Benioff)
zones. Megathrust zone earthquake events occurred at depth less shal-
low than 50 km, and depth of 50–200 km was represented as Benioff
zone.
3. Data used
3.1. Landslide inventory map
Landslide inventory maps are considered to be the basis of most of
the susceptibility mapping techniques. In addition, the inventory maps
can be used for evaluating and reducing landslide hazard or risk on a
regional scale (Wieczorek, 1984). The earthquake which happened on
Wednesday 30th of September 2009 at 17:16 pm with a magnitude of
8 RS in Padang Pariaman has triggered landslides in the area. Most of
these landslides occurred in unstable regions that had steep slope
which were composed by rock weathering. Also it occurred in the area
which was made of less compact and less dense soil, such as the region
composed of Hornblenda Hipersten Pumiceous Tuff unit (Qhpt),
Pumiceous Tuff (Qpt), Andesite and Basalt. Most of these landslides
are debris flows.
The existing landslide inventory map is very essential for studying
the relationship between the landslide distribution and the condition-
ing factors. To produce a detailed and reliable inventory map, extensive
field surveys and observations were performed in the study area. A total
128 Z. Umar et al. / Catena 118 (2014) 124–135
 Z. Umar et al. / Catena 118 (2014) 124–135
Fig. 2. List of all the conditioning factors (a) DEM, (b) curvature, (c) river, (d) SPI, (e) rainfall, (f) soil type, (g) soil texture, (h) LULC, (i) PGA 8, (j) geology, (k) slope, (l) aspect, (m) distance
from lineament and (n) TWI.
of 89 landslides were identified in the study area by evaluating
Quickbird imagery (0.61 m spatial resolution) which has been taken
on April 1, 2011 and by multiple field surveys (Fig. 1). The average
area of the landslide was approximately 0.25 ha. For this analysis, the
landslide inventory map was randomly divided into two groups 70%
and 30% of the landslide locations for the purpose of training and testing
respectively. Consequently, the dependent layer was prepared using the
training dataset. This layer was made up of 0 and 1 values. The value of 1
represents the existence and the value of 0 illustrates the absence of
landslide over the area. The rest of the landslide events were used for
the purpose of testing. After dividing the landslide locations, both layers
were prepared and converted to raster.
3.2. Landslide conditioning factors
Generally speaking, the conditioning factors are responsible for the
occurrence of landslide in specific region. These factors are needed to
129
be used in landslide susceptibility mapping (Liu and De Smedt, 2005),
which can be in nominal, ordinal, or scale format (Park et al., 2013).
For current research the conditioning factors are: altitude, curvature,
river, stream power index (SPI), rainfall, soil type, soil texture, land
use/cover (LULC), peak ground acceleration (PGA) 8, geology, slope,
aspect, lineament, and topographic wetness index (TWI). The list of
the conditioning factors and their characteristics is shown in Table 1.
Each factor was resized to 10 × 10 m grid and the grid of the Padang
Pariaman area was constructed by 2795 columns and 2850 rows
(3,491,989 pixels; 1396 km2). For FR analysis, quantile method was
used to classify each conditioning factor and the list of all the data layers
is illustrated in Fig. 2. Elevation is one of the topographic factors that
affect slope instability (Wan et al., 2012). Other parameters such as
precipitation and weathering variations are considered as indirect
factors. In this study, the elevation map was obtained from the altitude
which was generated using survey of Indonesia topographic map sheets
of the Padang Pariaman area (1984, 1985 and 1996). This layer was
130 Z. Umar et al. / Catena 118 (2014) 124–135

Fig. 2 (continued).

classified into 10 classes (Fig. 2a). In the curvature map, three classes (Chen and Liu, 2012). Eqs. (1) and (2) represent the mathematical
were considered; convex, flat and concave (Fig. 2b). formulation of IDW:
In the case of the distance from the river map, ten buffer classes
(10 m, 20 m, 40 m, 100 m, 200 m, 400 m, 1000 m, 2000 m, 4000 m X
N
^ ¼
R wi Ri ð1Þ
and 8000 m) were made using the buffer tool in ArcGIS 10 software p
i¼1
(Fig. 2c). In the SPI (5.99–22.21) and rainfall (1752–4803) maps, ten
categories were created for each of the analysis (Fig. 2d and e). In this
research, the average rainfall data were collected from the meteorolog-
d−∝
ical stations surrounding the study area (Pourghasemi et al., 2012; Wan wi ¼ XNi −∝ ð2Þ
et al., 2010a). There are various geostatistical interpolation methods d
i¼1 i
that exist to calculate rainfall such as the average arithmetic, Thiessen
polygon method, Isohyetal method, inverse distance weight (IDW), where R ^ means the unknown rainfall data (mm); Ri means the rainfall
p
and Kriging. In the current research, IDW was applied using line density data of known rainfall stations (mm); N means the amount of rainfall sta-
operations in ArcGIS 10. The general assumption of IDW is that the value tions; wi means the weighting of each rainfall station; di means the dis-
of an unsampled point is the weighted average of known values within tance from each rainfall station to the unknown site; and ∝ means the
the neighborhood. Therefore, the values from a scattered set of known power, and is also a control parameter. Using the mentioned equations,
points can be utilized to recognize and assign the values to unknown the rainfall average data for the whole study area was interpolated.
points. It can be used to compute the unknown spatial rainfall data Nine categories of soil types were recognized: Pumiceous, Dasite
from the known data of sites that are adjacent to the unknown site Phorphyry, Andesite, Miocene Granitic, Lithic Crystal Tuff, Aluvium,
 Z. Umar et al. / Catena 118 (2014) 124–135
Permian Metamorphic, Colovium, and Permian Limestone (Fig. 2f). The
soil texture is related to the clay fractions, silt and sand. The finer the
grain of soil surface texture, the more ability to absorb water and there-
fore more landslide occurrence is expected. In the current research, the
soil texture is obtained from the digitized drainage layer geomorpholog-
ical map of Padang sheet Sumatera. There are five classes of soil texture
that exist in the study area: sandy gravel, gravel sandy, sandy clay, clay,
and clay sand. The distribution of the soil texture is illustrated in Fig. 2g.
Generally, the landuse/landcover (LULC) analysis reflects the relation-
ships between land use and landslides. In this study, topographic map
and Landsat 7 ETM+ satellite image were acquired on Mar 1, 2009 in
order to map the LULC. In the LULC map, eight classes were found: pri-
mary forest, secondary forest, village, small holder plantation, open
mining, housing, irrigated rice, and bush (shrub) (Fig. 2h).
The peak ground acceleration (PGA) map of Padang Pariaman
District was constructed through the following steps:
a. Firstly, the district of Padang Pariaman was divided by a grid
size of 3.5 km × 3.5 km. Once the area was divided by a grid
size 3.5 × 3.5 km, the center of each pixel was determined.
b. Then, the calculation of PGA was done using a global attenuation
adapted from Fukushima and Tanaka (1990):
h i
0:41MS
Log10 A ¼ 1:30 þ 0:41MS − log R þ 0:032  10 −0:0034R ð3Þ
where;
A is the mean peak acceleration (in cm/s2)
MS is the magnitude of the earthquake
R is the shortest distance between the site and fault rupture
(km) or the shortest distance from the location to the earth-
quake source (km).
In this research, four PGA layers from different years have been
collected. The PGA 8 was measured from the earthquake that took place
in 2009 in Padang and the model has been generated for this PGA. Subse-
quently, four classes were defined for PGA 8 as can be seen in Fig. 2i.
Twenty nine geology classes have been found in the study area as
can be seen in Fig. 2j. Based on this map and the observations in the
field, the study area was mostly formed by various volcanic, sedimenta-
ry, metamorphic and igneous rocks. The various classes of the lithology
are illustrated in Fig. 2k. One of the most important conditioning factors
in the slope stability analysis is the slope angle. For this reason, the slope
map of the study area was prepared from the altitude, and it was
divided into 10 slope categories using quantile method (Pourghasemi
et al., 2012) (Fig. 2k). In landslide susceptibility studies, slope aspect is
considered to be an important conditioning factor (Baeza and
Corominas, 2001). The reason is, aspect-related parameters such as
exposure to sunlight and drying winds, control the concentration of
the soil moisture which is directly related to the landslide occurrence
(Magliulo et al., 2008). In the case of the aspect map, ten classes have
been made (flat, North, Northeast, East, Southeast, South, Southwest,
West, Northwest and North) (Fig. 2l). The lineament density map was
obtained by using the digitized drainage layer made by the Survey of
Indonesia (1984, 1985 and 1996) and has been divided into twelve clas-
ses. The distribution of the lineament density is illustrated in Fig. 2m. In
the TWI (0–18.34) map, ten categories were created (Fig. 2d and e).
4. Methodology
4.1. Application of frequency ratio (FR)
The LSM can be done by several methods such as statistical, deter-
ministic and heuristic methods. In the current research, the FR model
131
was applied in order to evaluate the landslide susceptibility of the
area based on the observed spatial relationship between landslide loca-
tions and conditioning factors. In general, the landslides that will occur
in the future have the same condition as past landslides (Lee and
Pradhan, 2006). The FR is the ratio of the probability of the presence
to the absence of landslide occurrence (Lee and Pradhan, 2007;
Yilmaz, 2009). In the current research, four PGA (7.5, 8, 8.6 and 9)
maps were acquired for different years, and subsequently a PGA map
of 8 for the 2009 earthquake was prepared. Therefore, PGA 8 was used
to run the model by forming the structure of the final probability equa-
tion. Similarly, for the other three PGA the same equation was used to
run the model by changing the different PGA values. The purpose was
to generate the fixed model that can be used in various events and pro-
duce rapid, accurate and trustable results. The spatial relationship be-
tween the conditioning factor and landslides was measured through
the FR model. The higher the FR ratio is, the stronger the relationship be-
tween the landslide occurrence and the conditioning factor (Pradhan
and Lee, 2010b).
The classified conditioning factors are illustrated in Fig. 2. Then, the
FR was performed and the range of FR was normalized. The normalized
FR values were used to reclassify all the conditioning factors to use them
in the LR analysis. The normalization of all independent variables is nec-
essary which facilitate the final analysis and interpretation (Ayalew and
Yamagishi, 2005). For normalization process, a common method was
used for this purpose (Choi et al., 2010). For example, for yi(i = 1, 2,.
… n):
yi −ymin
yi ¼ ð4Þ
ymax −ymin
where, yi means the normalized values of yi, and ymin and ymax represent
the minimum and maximum values of yi respectively.
4.2. Application of logistic regression (LR)
The LR is considered as one of the popular MSA methods which
permits one to make a multivariate regression relationship between a
dependent variable and numerous conditioning factors (Pradhan and
Lee, 2010b). McFadden (1974) introduced LR for the first time which
measured the probability of any disaster in a specific area using specific
formula and the conditioning factors. The dependent data is made up of
0 and 1 values which show the absence and presence of landslides
respectively. All the datasets contain dependent layer and all the condi-
tioning factors were converted to ASCII format to be used in SPSS
program. The LR was applied using SPSS V.19 software and the coeffi-
cients were measured. The list of all LR coefficients can be seen in
Table 1. The higher the LR coefficient, the higher impacts on landslide
occurrence can be expected. The derived LR coefficients were used in
order to calculate the probability (p) of landslide occurrence using Eq.
(5):
 −z 
p ¼ 1= 1 þ e ð5Þ
where, p is the probability of landslide occurrence. In this situation,
the value p is the estimated probability of landslide occurrence. The
probability varies from 0 to 1 on an S-shaped curve and z is the linear
combination. It follows that logistic regression involves fitting an
equation of the following form to the data:
z ¼ b þ b1 x1 þ b2 x2 þ b3 x3 þ bn xn ð6Þ
where b° is the intercept of the model, bi (i = 0, 1, 2, …, n) represents
the coefficients of the LR model, and xi (i = 0, 1, 2, …, n) denotes the
conditioning factors (Lee and Sambath, 2006).
132 Z. Umar et al. / Catena 118 (2014) 124–135
5. Results
The FR method was produced using the weights for each class of
each conditioning factor. Through analyzing the relationship between
13 conditioning factors and landslide occurrence, the FR ratio was
calculated (Table 1).
Table 1 represents the relationship between landslide event and the
classes of each conditioning factor. It can be seen that in the case of the
relationship between landslide occurrence and altitude, landslide most-
ly occurred in the elevation range of 198.31–297.46 m. It showed that
the probability of landslide occurrence is very low in low elevation
areas. In the case of the curvature, the ratio was N1 for the class of
concave, and the other classes of flat and convex have ratios of 0.08
and 1.64 respectively. The most effective class of distance from river
was 400 m with a ratio of 2.16. For SPI, the FR ratio was highest (2.10)
for the class of 11.20–11.78, and it was lowest (0) for the class of
8.60–9.30. The highest FR ratio for rainfall classes as main contributors
of landslide belonged to the area of 2996–3199 mm precipitation with
a ratio of 8.13. In the case of soil types, the highest FR ratio (68.03)
was related to the Dasite Phorphyry which showed the significant
influence of this soil type on the landslide occurrence. All the soil type
classes have zero FR value, expect for the class of Pumiceous.
The LULC map is one of the conditioning factors that have direct
impact on the occurrence of the landslides. For LULC, the highest FR
ratios of 1.40 and 1.01 were achieved for secondary forest and primary
forest classes which amplified the landslide occurrences. In terms of
PGA, the third class of PGA 8 produced the highest FR ratio of 4.07. In
the case of the geology, all the classes have a ratio of zero, except the
classes of 7, 14, 20, 23 and 26. For the areas with the slope angles
7.64°–10.42°, the ratio was 4.30, which illustrated that the higher
slope angle increases the susceptibility of the area to the landslide
occurrence. The most effective class of the soil texture was sandy gravel,
with the FR ratio of 2.76 and other three classes acquired zero as FR
ratio. This indicates that the most influential class was sandy gravel
while the others are not effective in landslide occurrence. Also the
impact of the aspect was evaluated as contributor in landslide occur-
rence. The ratio was highest (6.85) for the class of East, and it was lowest
(0.06) for the class of flat. For the lineament, the FR ratio was zero for all
the classes, except the classes 2000–4000 and 4000–8000 which have
ratios of 4.85 and 0.68 respectively. In the case of TWI, the FR ratio
was highest (2.17) for the class of 4.46–5.10, and it was lowest (0) for
the classes of 9.28–10.35 and 10.35–18.34.
The MSA was performed using LR and the relationship between the
landslide occurrence and landslide conditioning factors was assessed in
SPSS V.19 software. The LR coefficients are listed in Table 1. As can be
seen in Table 1, curvature showed the high and positive correlation
with landslide occurrence as it could acquire the highest LR coefficient
of 0.113. Similarly, altitude and soil texture are the other effective
conditioning factors, by the LR coefficient of 0.037 and 0.031 respectively.
In order to obtain the landslide probability index the regression
coefficients for each conditioning factor were entered in Eq. (7):
Z ¼ −22:742 þ ð0:113 curvatureÞ−ð0:005 aspectÞ
þð0:011 distance from lineamentÞ−ð0:035 distance from riverÞ
þð0:037 altitudeÞ þ ð0:001 geologyÞ−ð0:016 LULCÞ
ð7Þ
þð0:018 PGA8Þ þ ð0:013 rainfallÞ þ ð0:022 slopeÞ
þð0:031 soil textureÞ þ ð0:001 soil typeÞ
−ð0:07 SPIÞ þ ð0:024 TWIÞ:
Finally, the probability index was calculated which ranges from 0 to
0.99. The landslide probability map for PGA 8 can be seen in Fig. 3 where
the index illustrates the predicted probabilities of landslide for each
pixel in the presence of a given set of conditioning factors.
The acquired landslide probability map showed that the probability
of landslide occurrence is large in high slope and high elevated areas. In
order to perform LSM, the probability map should be divided into differ-
ent categories. In the literature, it is possible to see different types of
classification schemes such as standard deviation, quantile, natural
break and equal interval. In the current study the best results are
achieved through the quantile method. The outputs of other classifica-
tion methods showed the susceptible areas with high degree of exag-
geration and larger part of the study area fell into the high susceptible
zone. Finally, a landslide susceptibility map of PGA 8 was obtained and
the study area was divided into five classes of landslide susceptibility:
very low (0–0.29), low (0.29–0.37), medium (0.37–0.45), high (0.45–
0.52) and very high (0.52–1). The derived landslide susceptibility map
is shown in Fig. 4.
The other three equations were applied by changing the PGA (7.2,
8.6 and 9) and landslide susceptibility map of each can be seen in
Fig. 4. All the four susceptibility maps represent almost the same condi-
tion for the study area. Based on the acquired landslide susceptibility
map, most parts of the study area are located in very low susceptible
zones. The high and very high landslide susceptible areas acquired
from PGA 8 covered 19.4% of the area and mostly it is located in the
North and North-East parts of Padang. The area which contained clay
soil type, very high elevation and precipitation was classified as the
most susceptible zone. Also results revealed that there is a negative
correlation between landslide occurrence and river, SPI, LULC and
aspect. The proposed ensemble method is recommended for landslide
studies, as changing the whole dataset and running new equation are
not required. The acquired PGA can be entered in the pre-developed
model and in a very short time the results can be generated.
The proposed model has been evaluated using area under the (ROC)
curve. Both success and prediction rates were measured to examine
the reliability and efficiency of the landslide probability map. The
validation has been done by comparing the existing landslide data
with the produced landslide probability map (Lee and Pradhan, 2007;
Pourghasemi et al., 2012). The training and testing datasets were used
to acquire success and prediction rates respectively. The training dataset
(70% of the inventory landslide locations i.e. 61 landslide locations) was
used to get the success rate. The success rate was 84% and the curve can
be seen in Fig. 5. While the training dataset was used to assess the
model, it cannot present the real efficiency of the developed model.
The prediction rate shows how well the model can predict the landslide
occurrence in an area (Tien Bui et al., 2012a). The testing dataset
Fig. 3. The probability map obtained from ensemble FR and LR methods.
 Z. Umar et al. / Catena 118 (2014) 124–135 133

Fig. 4. Landslide susceptibility map produced from ensemble FR and LR methods for (a) PGA 7.2, (b) 8, (c) PGA 8.6 and (d) PGA 9.

(selected by 30% of landslide areas of total number 26 landslide sam-
ples) which was not used in the training process was used to measure
the prediction rate. So the model's generalization ability can be assessed
through this method (Maier and Dandy, 2000). The range of the AUC
varies from 0.5 to 1.0, as the value of 1.0 represents the highest accuracy
which shows that the model was performed perfectly. So the closer the
value of AUC to the 1.0 is, the model is considered to be more precise
and trustable (Tien Bui et al., 2012b). The prediction rate was 78% and
is shown in Fig. 5.

Fig. 5. ROC curve. Fig. 6. Prediction rate for models derived from PGA 7.2, 8.6 and 9.
134 Z. Umar et al. / Catena 118 (2014) 124–135
Validation also has been done for the other three models that were
acquired from PGA 7.2, 8.6 and 9. The prediction rate was measured to
examine the capability of the generated equation. The prediction rates
for the models made by PGA 7.2, 8.6 and 9 were 79%, 78% and 81%
respectively (Fig. 6). It can be seen that the proposed ensemble
method was able to predict landslides due to different values of
PGA. The generated equation can produce the results and detect the
susceptible areas in a very short time.
6. Conclusions
Earthquake is one of the main contributors in landslide occurrence
which results in severe human casualties, property losses and environ-
mental degradation. Earthquake induced landslides can cause extensive
and significant damages to both lives and properties. The geographical
condition of Padang Pariaman, Indonesia is formed by mountains that
easily fall down especially after earthquake and heavy rain. An 8 RS
earthquake struck West Sumatra and its surrounding areas on Wednes-
day, 30 September 2009. Due to this earthquake a huge number of
landslides happened in the North-East of this area which made the
local governments investigate an appropriate and rapid solution to
detect the landslide susceptible areas. Over many years, geographic
information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) have become
integral tools for the evaluation of natural hazard phenomena. In the
current research an ensemble method of FR and LR was applied for
LSM. Four PGA were collected and the one which was related to the
2009 earthquake was used to generate the model equation. The aim
was to establish a pre-developed model for future studies which can
produce the LSM just by entering the PGA to the formula. The FR was
chosen to perform BSA and extract the spatial correlation between
classes of each conditioning factor and landslide occurrence. The output
of the FR was reclassified based on the weights of each class and was
used as an input for LR. Subsequently, the LR model analyzed the impact
of each conditioning factor on the landslides. The probability map was
extracted and then reclassified into five landslide susceptibility zones
using quantile method. The validation results showed that the ensemble
model could provide 84% and 78% success and prediction rates respec-
tively. Once the model is generated, other three PGA (7.2, 8.6 and 9)
were used to model the other three LSM. The prediction rates for the
models made by PGA 7.2, 8.6 and 9 were 79%, 78% and 81% respectively.
The results proved the efficiency of the proposed method and all the
maps visually represented almost the same susceptible areas which
were located in the North and North-East of Padang. Through the LSM
the most effective landslide conditioning factors were detected e.g.
curvature, altitude and soil texture which had positive and high correla-
tion with landslide occurrence. Through the analysis that has been done
in the current research, the impact and the relation of each conditioning
factor on landslide have been assessed. The current research provides a
valuable characterization of triggered landslides in Padang, Indonesia
that can be used to predict the characteristics of landslides triggered
by future earthquakes in that area.
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