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 ISSN: 0969-5966

June 2017 Contents

Vol 34 Issue 6

Latin America Monitor

Investment Key To Modest
Recovery  5
Licensing Round Ramp-Up
Brazil Offers Fresh Start For Brazil 7

Brazil: Corruption Investigations Will Slow
Reform Momentum
BMI View: The latest investigations resulting from Brazil's ongoing 'Lava Jato' probe
cut the closest to President Michel Temer yet and will likely delay and weaken the
enactment of pension and labour reform legislation. Although Temer likely retains
the ability to pass legislation, investor sentiment could sour as reforms under-deliver
structural improvements to the country's public finances.

Brazilian President Michel Temer's reform agenda faces a more uncertain future after the
country's Supreme Court authorised corruption investigations into 76 politicians a all levels
of government. Announced on April 11, the investigations are the latest development
in the ongoing 'Lava Jato' scandal and cut the closest to the administration. Testimony
from Odebrecht executives details an entrenched system of alleged kickbacks and illicit
campaign financing spanning multiple administrations. Former Presidents Fernando
Henrique Cardoso, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Dilma Rousseff are mentioned in the
testimony, as are Temer and eight of his ministers. In total, nearly 200 individuals are now Copy Deadline: 28 April 2017
under investigation as a result of the probe, according to local media accounts.
Analysts: Jeffrey Lamoureux, Mara Roberts

The investigations will likely delay and weaken the enactment of pension and labour Editor: Mark Schaltuper
reforms, which could raise concerns over the sustainability of the country's fiscal trajectory
Sub-Editor: Mia Kilroy
and growth outlook. However, because we have long factored in the likelihood of legislative
delays as a result of corruption investigations (see 'Pension Reform Set To Progress Subscriptions Manager: Lyan Chan

Marketing Manager: Julia Consuegra

...continued on page 2
Production: Neeraj Kumar

Pension Reform Central To Fiscal Outlook  3

Brazil's fiscal deficit will gradually narrow over the coming quarters, as revenue growth
accelerates and expenditure growth is constrained. Nonetheless, the sustainability of
the country's fiscal outlook will depend on the enactment of pension reforms in the
coming months.

REGIONAL INDICATORS
Latin America Indicators 2015 2016e 2017f 2018f Head Office
Nominal GDP, USDbn 5,326.1 5,333.9 6,387.2 7,011.1 2 Broadgate Circle, London
Population, mn 631.5 637.9 644.2 650.4 EC2M 2QS, UK
GDP per capita, USD 8,434.3 8,361.7 9,915.0 10,780.0
Real GDP growth, % 0.4 -0.5 1.6 2.5
Company Locations
Inflation, % 7.8 8.7 6.1 4.8
London | New York | Singapore
Goods Exports, USDbn 1,007.1 991.4 1,038.8 1,090.2
Hong Kong | Dubai | Pretoria
Goods Imports, USDbn 1,042.1 974.2 1,003.3 1,052.4
Notes: e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI.
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 Brazil | June 2017
BRAZIL – POLITICAL OUTLOOK
...continued from front page
Through Congress', February 6), our fundamental views on Brazil's political environment Legislation Set To Advance, But Risks Substantial
Short Term Political Risk Index And Select
have changed very little. We maintain Brazil's score on our Short-Term Political Risk Index at Components, Out Of 100
59.2 out of 100. Ranking 10th out of 17 Latin American countries, Brazil's score reflects our
assessment that key legislation will continue to pass, though delays and poor social stability
will generate uncertainty.

Temer will remain in office until the October 2018 elections, and we expect him to retain enough
Congressional support to enact legislation advancing pension, labour and sector-specific
reforms that have been in the works over recent months. Temer is not under investigation, as
he has immunity from prosecution for activities that preceded his time in office, and a separate
court challenge to the 2014 presidential election is unlikely to move forward.
Source: BMI

Nonetheless, Temer will face a more difficult challenge in securing legislative support for
pension reforms, which has spurred public backlash over recent weeks. We do not expect
pension reform to be enacted before Q317 and the additional effort will push back the
timeline for labour and mining sector reforms by several months at least. On April 11, prior
to the latest revelations, Congressional leaders had announced a breakthrough in support
for the pension reform in the lower house; however, Finance Minister Henrique Meirelles
has reportedly put these pension reform efforts on hold as legislators have turned their Modestly Narrower Deficits Will Stabilise Debt
Budget Balance & Public Debt, % of GDP
attention to the fallout of the latest investigations.

With lawmakers from all major political parties implicated in criminal investigations, legislators
appear to be coalescing around two immediate objectives: avoiding jail and preserving
established politicians' ability to stand for election in 2018. To that end, policymakers are likely
to enact a general amnesty for campaign finance violations. Though Temer denies accounts
of an amnesty pact between him, Lula da Silva and Cardoso, and though talk of amnesty
in March spurred protests, policymakers' interest in self-preservation and in stabilising the
political environment will most likely lead to a deal, after which attention will return to reforms.

e/f = BMI estimate/forecast; Source: BCB, BMI

We believe that lawmakers remain broadly committed to enacting pension and labour
reforms, despite substantial public pushback, out of a sense of necessity. Brazil lost its
investment-grade credit ratings in late 2015 due to its increasingly unsustainable budgets.
Fitch and S&P retain negative outlooks on its debt, and economic activity has yet to emerge
from nearly three years of recession. Lawmakers recognise that with commodity prices
likely to remain at structurally lower averages over the coming years, promoting growth will
require encouraging investment by addressing the structural factors that increase the cost
of doing business in Brazil. Potential Inflection Point For CDS As Structural
Improvements Underwhelm
Five-Year Credit Default Swaps (Monthly), bps
However, there is a growing risk that the pension reform that is ultimately enacted will
under-deliver on the anticipated fiscal savings. Although the administration has refused
to negotiate on the establishment of a minimum retirement age, which does not currently
exist, it has already relaxed the transition rules that will govern when existing contributors
are moved onto the new schedule of benefits. Finance Minister Meirelles estimates that
savings from the reform have already fallen 15-20% and additional changes are likely
as the bill gets closer to decisive votes in Congress. A significant weakening of the bill's
provisions could undermine the sustainability of the country's fiscal trajectory (see
'Pension Reform Central To Fiscal Outlook', March 30), which could lift borrowing costs
and dim the country's growth outlook over the coming years.
Source: Bloomberg, BMI

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 Brazil | June 2017
BRAZIL – ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Pension Reform Central To Fiscal Outlook

BMI View: Brazil's fiscal deficit will gradually narrow over the coming quarters, as revenue growth accelerates and expenditure
growth is constrained. Nonetheless, the sustainability of the country's fiscal outlook will depend on the enactment of pension
reforms in the coming months.

Brazil's fiscal shortfall will narrow over the coming years. Recovering economic activity Fiscal Shortfall Set To Gradually Narrow
Budget Balance, % of GDP
will support revenues, while expenditure growth is constrained under the terms of a
spending cap amendment enacted in November 2016 (see 'Spending Cap Amendment
Supports Deficit Narrowing', November 18 2016).

That said, further improvements in the country's fiscal outlook will largely depend on
enacting pension reform over the coming months, without which social spending
obligations are likely to render the spending cap amendment untenable. While we expect
reforms will be enacted, we caution that political opposition could significantly weaken
reform provisions, posing downside risks to our forecasts.

f = BMI forecast; Source: BCB, BMI

Brazil posted an overall budget deficit of 9.0% of GDP in 2016. This was narrower than our
9.6% of GDP estimate after revenues picked up and debt servicing costs fell in the back
half of the year. We forecast the deficit to narrow to 8.8% of GDP in 2017 and to shrink by
approximately 1.0% of GDP annually thereafter, in line with our previous forecasts.

Revenues Offer Near-Term Support

Over the coming year, revenue gains will narrow the shortfall. In addition to organic revenue
growth derived from a modest rebound in economic activity over the coming quarters,
payroll tax breaks in some sectors are set to be rolled back over the coming weeks. The
government has thus far avoided broader tax increases as it seeks to encourage growth.
Additionally, the government has extended an asset repatriation programme that it credits
with generating BRL50.9bn in 2016.

Debt servicing costs will also fall. Amid low global interest rates, Brazil cut interest Low Interest Rates & Stronger FX Lower Debt Costs
Interest Payments, BRLmn, % y-o-y (6mma)
expenses 24.5% y-o-y in 2016, savings which will carry over into 2017. Moreover, public
asset sales will generate capital revenues and support deleveraging, which will reduce
overall borrowing expenses. Over the coming weeks, our Oil & Gas team expects state-
owned Petrobras to resume asset sales suspended in December, which should find
some measure of success (see 'Petrobras: Q4 Growth Marks Return To Positive Territory',
March 24). Our Power team also expects assets from Electrobras to remain popular
with investors (see 'Power Privatisation Drive Will Offer Market Access Opportunities',
December 15 2016).

Over the near term, the government will control expenditure growth by cutting budgets
Source: BCB, BMI
for a range of ministries. On March 29, the government announced plans to cut BRL42.1bn
from federal budgets and its infrastructure investment programme, exempting education
expenses. The measures will help ensure the government meets its BRL139bn primary
deficit target in 2017.

Over the medium term, statutory spending limits will ensure the country's deficits gradually
narrow. The spending cap amendment's key provision locks in expenditure at 2017
levels, adjusted for inflation, for 20 years, although the government will have the option
of reassessing progress after 10 years. Our forecasts assume non-financial expenditure

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 Brazil | June 2017

growth remains linked to inflation over the coming years, which will reduce expenditure as Social Security Obligations Rising
Central Government Expenditures, % of GDP (6mma)
share of GDP from 28.4% in 2015 to 23.1% in 2021.

Pension Reform In Focus

That said, statutory limits on spending will become unsustainable unless the government
is able to reduce social spending obligations. With an ageing population and generous
benefits, Brazil's pension system presents a rapidly increasing burden on government
finances that could crowd out the budget if unadjusted. Social security obligations currently
equal approximately 40.0% of expenditures, equal to 8.0% of GDP and rising.

Legislation currently working through Congress aims to constrain the growth of pension
Source: BCB, BMI
obligations by establishing a minimum retirement age, cutting benefits and limiting the
pace of future benefit increases. While we believe the government retains the legislative
support necessary to enact reform, sustained political pushback has already begun to
weaken some provisions. In March, the government agreed to allow municipal governments
to make their own pension adjustments, while unions and some ruling coalition members
continue to push for more lenient transition rules.

Pension reforms appear increasingly unlikely to be enacted before Q317, which has long Social Security Shortfalls A Major Drag On Budgets
Social Security Deficit, BRLbn (6mma)
been the government's goal, and carry increasing risks to the country's economic outlook.
Although our inflation, interest rate and debt sustainability expectations anticipate
the enactment of a weaker reform than currently being discussed in congress, more
substantial weakening of its terms could lead the Banco Central do Brasil to scale back rate
cuts (see 'Rapid Disinflation Supports Single-Digit Interest Rates', March 24), which would
undermine business confidence, depress loan growth and delay an economic rebound.

A weakened pension reform could also undermine Brazil's sovereign credit ratings,
increasing debt costs for the government and private firms. Both Fitch and S&P hold
negative outlooks on Brazil's sovereign debt in light of policy uncertainty; Moody's Source: BCB, BMI
upgraded its outlook to stable on March 15, citing reform momentum.

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 Brazil | June 2017
BRAZIL – ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Investment Key To Modest Recovery

BMI View: The Brazilian economy will grow modestly in 2017, emerging from a recession of nearly three years, as business
sentiment improves and drives investment. That said, the recovery will remain tepid, as structural improvements remain subject
to considerable political risk.

Brazil's economy will expand in 2017, exiting a recession that began in Q414. Although Activity Growth Set To Turn Modestly Positive
Monthly Economic Activity Index, % y-o-y
growth remains negative, the economy has bottomed, and business sentiment is
improving as inflation falls, interest rates are slashed and the government pursues
structural reforms. Investment will pick up over the coming quarters, gradually filling
the country's output gap. With the worst of job losses likely in the past, unemployment
will plateau and consumer confidence will improve, supporting consumption.

While our view is fundamentally unchanged, we have downwardly revised our forecast
for real GDP growth in 2017 to 0.5%, from 0.8% previously (see 'Improving Business
Sentiment Will Drive Modest Recovery', January 5). Reform momentum is being sapped
by the push to enact pension reform (see 'Focus Turns Toward Pension Reforms', March
Note: Line denotes 6mma. Source: IGBE, BMI
29), a key component of fiscal consolidation efforts. This will likely delay or inhibit labour
and sector reforms that businesses have been expecting. As a result, we have lowered our
expectations for fixed investment growth.

Investment Will Drive Recovery Improving Sentiment Will Drive Investment

Purchasing Managers' Index &
Although we have lowered our expectations, we maintain that positive business sentiment Business Confidence
will support rising fixed investment over the coming quarters. Business confidence
was up 43.1% y-o-y in February, reflecting improving economic conditions and reform
momentum. Inflation continues to fall rapidly, hitting a multi-year low of 4.7% y-o-y in
mid-March.

We forecast that inflation will fall as low as 3.4% y-o-y in Q317, averaging 4.2% over the
year and supporting an aggressive pace of interest rate cuts. We expect the Banco Central
do Brasil's benchmark rate to fall into single digits (see 'Rapid Disinflation Supports
Single-Digit Interest Rates', March 24), encouraging borrowing and supporting aggregate
demand. Source: Markit, CNI, BMI

The government's infrastructure concession programme 'Projeto Crescer' holds

the potential to attract foreign investor interest. On March 16, the first test of the
programme saw four airports successfully auctioned off to European firms, signalling a
return of investor appetite for the country's infrastructure assets (see 'Airport Auctions
Signal Improving Investor Appetite', March 20). First Signs Of Recovery Now Visible
Industrial Indicators

Our Infrastructure team anticipates similarly strong interest in energy-related assets,

although interest in higher-risk assets, such as railways, will likely be limited by lingering
uncertainty over returns, transparency and lead times.

Investment and improving aggregate demand will help fill the country's wide output gap.
Industrial capacity utilisation remains at multi-year lows, recorded at 75.4% in January,
after nearly three years of declining industrial production. Although production grew
1.4% y-o-y in January, the positive print marked the sector's first positive month since
February 2014.
Source: IGBE, CNI, BMI

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 Brazil | June 2017

Upside For Consumption Coming Into View Consumers Beginning To Show Life
Consumer Confidence & Retail Sales
We retain our view that household consumption will offer little support to growth in
the coming quarters. Unemployment rose to 13.2% in February, while the household
debt servicing ratio remained elevated at 21.3% of total earnings. Retail sales remain in
deeply contractionary territory, falling by an average of 6.2% y-o-y per month in 2016,
and the expiry of payroll tax breaks across most industries could further delay hiring
decisions.

Nonetheless, rising investment and falling inflation will offer support to consumption,
which we expect will return to growth in H217. Net formal job creation turned positive
in February, adding 35,612 jobs, the first positive print since March 2015 and an early Source: CNI, IGBE, BMI
suggestion that unemployment will peak in the coming months. Consumer confidence
has rebounded since bottoming in late 2015, rising 5.8% y-o-y in February.

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 Brazil | June 2017
BRAZIL – INDUSTRY OUTLOOK

Licensing Round Ramp-Up Offers Fresh Start For Brazil

BMI View: More frequent oil and gas licensing rounds across Brazil will offer the industry an opportunity to start anew. Increas-
ingly business-friendly contract terms and favourable project economics will attract significant investment into the sector over
the next three years.

After two volatile years, Brazil's oil and gas sector is preparing to restart. On April 11, Efficiencies Whetting Investor Appetite
Petrobras – Santos Basin Development Metrics Per Well
the country's national energy policy council (CNPE) approved a timetable and acreage
content for 10 upstream licensing rounds from 2017 through 2019. This strategy marks a
significant change from years past when authorities would not disclose dates until shortly
beforehand, reducing predictability while frustrating potential investors.

The unravelling of the Lava Jato scandal combined with falling commodity prices and
less-favourable licensing terms to drive the investment community away from Brazil's
hydrocarbon sector. However, new leadership in both the government and at national oil
company (NOC) Petrobras has ushered in a wave of industry-friendly regulatory change
over the past six months, stimulating investor confidence in the process, including:
Source: Petrobras, BMI

• Easing local content requirement s to around half of the level required in recent
licensing rounds alleviating a significant obstacle to upstream development over
the past several years.
• Reducing Petrobras' role in the presalt by revising the sole operator provision which
mandated the NOC must hold a minimum of 30% stake and operate any new
presalt deepwater project.

We believe more favourable terms, coupled with more stable oil prices, provides an Presalt Polygon Up For Grabs
Map of Brazilian Offshore Basins
opportune backdrop for the country to revive its licensing round process. We therefore
believe forthcoming tenders will experience a more favourable outcome compared to the
latest round in October 2015. Leading into the 13th licensing round, the country had yet to
fully-account for the negative effects its more nationalistic terms would have on investor
interest. Of the 266 blocks on offer, only 37 received bids and were licensed, representing a
less than 14.0% success rate for the ANP.

We believe the four production sharing rounds in the presalt will attract the most interest
due to the size of the resources on offer and increased efficiencies throughout the region
which have lowered commercial costs. A licensing round has not been held in the presalt
Note: Libra is the only existing Production Sharing Contract in the
since October 2013, inhibiting further investment from the private sector. presalt. Source: Petrobras, BMI

Meanwhile, Brazil's ultra-deepwater acreage has been at the forefront of the NOC's
upstream strategy for several years. This follows on multiple large-scale discoveries and
the continued success of ongoing operations which now produce over 1.5mn boe/d (see
'Petrobras: Sharpening Focusing On Upstream Strategy', March 31 2016).

The vast and largely untapped resources in the presalt will therefore attract significant
investment beginning with the 2nd production sharing round in September. The Santos
and Campos basins, which house the majority of the presalt, contain approximately 12.1bn
barrels (bbl) of Brazil's proven (P1) crude and 336.7bn cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas
reserves, or over 93.0% and 78.0% of the national total, respectively. However, cumulative
possible (3P) reserves are much greater, at 23.2bn bbl of crude and 622.5bcm of gas,

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 Brazil | June 2017

suggesting considerable upside potential within the ultra-deep acreage (see 'Deepwater Potential Luring In Drillers', January 9).

The Brazilian government expects to raise a minimum of USD7.65bn from the oil gas auctions through 2019, USD2.7bn of which
is forecasted for this year. We caution that this value seems a bit ambitious given continued headwinds within the sector including
prolonged oil price weakness and continued political tensions. However, we do not believe this figure is beyond the realm of possibility.

We caution that the impacts of these efforts will not materialise until the latter part of our forecast period given the long lead-times
associated with upstream development. Nevertheless, we believe a growing reform drive represents a significant positive shift for the
country, supporting our upbeat production forecast (see 'Presalt Reform Improves Long-Term Production Outlook', October 13 2016).

APPROVED O&G LICENSING ROUNDS 2017-2019

Name Basins Type Date
4th Marginal Field Round Potiguar, Recôncavo and Espírito Santo Onshore May-2017
14th Bidding Round Sergipe-Alagoas, Espírito Santo, Campos, Santos and Pelotas/Parnaíba, Paraná, Onshore/Offshore Sep-2017
Potiguar, Recôncavo, Sergipe-Alagoas and Espírito Santo
2nd Production Sharing Santos, Campos Offshore (presalt) Sep-2017
3rd Production Sharing Santos, Campos Offshore (presalt) Nov-2017
4th Production Sharing Santos, Campos Offshore (presalt) May-2018
15th Bidding Round Foz do Amazonas, Ceará, Potiguar, Campos, Santos Onshore/Offshore May-2018
5th Marginal Field Round TBD Onshore/Offshore H118
5th Production Sharing Santos Offshore (presalt) H219
16th Bidding Round Camamu-Almada, Jacuípe, Santos, Campos Onshore/Offshore H219
6th Marginal Field Round TBD Onshore/Offshore H219
Source: ANP, BMI

DATA FORECASTS
2013 2014 2015e 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
Population, mn 204.3 206.1 207.8 209.6 211.2 212.9 214.5
Nominal GDP, USDbn 2,470.3 2,454.9 1,801.3 1,797.0 2,076.3 2,255.0 2,358.9
GDP per capita, USD 12,329 12,151 8,844 8,756 10,041 10,828 11,249
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 3.0 0.5 -3.8 -3.6 0.5 1.9 2.0
Industrial production, % y-o-y, ave 2.1 -2.9 -8.2 -6.5 2.5 2.8 3.0
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave 6.2 6.3 9.0 8.8 4.2 5.4 5.3
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 5.9 6.4 10.7 6.3 4.9 5.1 5.3
Central bank policy rate, % eop 10.00 11.75 14.25 13.75 9.50 9.00 8.00
Exchange rate BRL/USD, ave 2.16 2.35 3.33 3.49 3.18 3.15 3.26
Exchange rate BRL/USD, eop 2.36 2.66 3.96 3.26 3.10 3.21 3.31
Budget balance, BRLbn -157.5 -343.9 -613.0 -562.8 -582.1 -541.9 -517.2
Budget balance, % of GDP -3.0 -6.0 -10.2 -9.0 -8.8 -7.6 -6.7
Goods and services exports, USDbn 279.6 264.1 223.9 217.8 228.6 236.5 245.9
Goods and services imports, USDbn 325.6 318.8 243.1 203.2 213.4 220.0 228.4
Current account balance, USDbn -74.8 -104.2 -59.4 -23.5 -28.7 -34.1 -39.4
Current account balance, % of GDP -3.0 -4.2 -3.3 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.7
Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn 358.8 363.6 356.5 365.0 372.3 383.5 395.0
Import cover, months 14.0 14.5 16.5 18.8 19.4 19.4 19.2
Total external debt stock, USDbn 483.8 556.9 543.4 563.0 535.8 532.3 536.0
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 19.6 22.7 30.2 31.3 25.8 23.6 22.7
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 2,114.1 2,346.3 2,527.0 2,613.9 2,544.4 2,682.3 2,833.2
Total net oil exports (crude & products), 000b/d 19.2 147.8 462.2 647.3 567.8 679.3 786.7
Dry natural gas production, bcm 21.4 22.7 23.1 23.9 24.2 25.3 26.1
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 39.2 41.6 43.7 39.5 40.1 41.2 43.5
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast; Source: National Sources, BMI

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