Critical Path Method Laboratory Exercise The table below is a summary of collection of data fro

“Drink for the Gods”
Given the following activity,
managers (N). Of the 12 Project Managers, 4 rated t
"Optimistic" side, 6 rated "Most likely" and only 2 rate
Ingredients (Activity)
(Mixture of Drink for the “Gods”)
1. Apple (pealed and blended)
2. Banana (frozen, sliced)
3. Carrot (diced, boiled)
4. Dill (fresh from the gardens)
5. Egg (large, egg whites only)
6. Figs (from the Olympus hills)
7. Grapes (fresh from the Babylons)

1. Determine the Critical Path.

2. Given 25 minutes to complete the project (Drink for the Gods), what is the probability that the project
on time?
3. If the Project Manager says I want to see the project's completion rate of 90% what should be the pre
minutes)?
4. Based on the computed optimal time (in minutes) of completion, what would be the probability that th
beverage) will be finished if the project manager will speed up the completion by 3 minutes?
ry of collection of data from 12 project
ject Managers, 4 rated the project on the
ost likely" and only 2 rated "Pessimistic".

Project Manager Rating

Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
1 1 6
3 2 8
1 1 4
10 8 24
1 1 6
3 1 16
7 4 18

obability that the project will be accomplished

% what should be the prescribed duration (in

be the probability that the project (special

y 3 minutes?
Activity
Activity Name Predecessor Duration
Code
Apple (pealed and
A - 2
blended)
0
B Banana (frozen, sliced) - 6
4

C Carrot (diced, boiled) - 4

Dill (fresh from the 0 S 0 0

D A 3
gardens) 0 0 0 3
Egg (large, egg whites
E C 5
only)
Figs (from the Olympus 0
F A 4
hills) 0
Grapes (fresh from the
G B, D, E 2
Babylons) Duration of Path 1 6
S Start - 0 Duration of Path 2 7
X Mix ingredients F, G 0
 Network Model

2 F 6
7 4 11
A 2 11 X 11
2 6 11 0 11
2 D 5
6 3 9
B 6 9 G 11
6 9 9 2 11 Earliest Start
4 E 9 Earliest Finish
4 5 9 Latest Start
C 4 Latest Finish
4 4 ↑ Path 1
↑ Path 2
6 Duration of Path 3 8 ↑ Path 3
7 Duration of Path 4 11 → Critical Path ↑ Path 4
 Activity Code Activity Name Predecessor Duration
A Apple (pealed and blended) - 2
B Banana (frozen, sliced) - 6
C Carrot (diced, boiled) - 4
D Dill (fresh from the gardens) A 3
E Egg (large, egg whites only) C 5
F Figs (from the Olympus hills) A 4
G Grapes (fresh from the Babylons) B, D, E 2

Expected Duration of Critical Path 10.67

Variance of the Critical Path 1.08
Standard Deviation 1.04

Probability Forecast
Target Duration (Minutes) 25.00
Z Score 13.82
Probability 100.00%

Answer to Question 2
Given 25 minutes to complete the project, the probability that the project will
be accomplished on time is 100%.
 Project Manager Rating Expected Variance
Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Time
1 1 6 1.83 0.1736 Additional Data
3 2 8 3.33 0.1736 N 12
1 1 4 1.50 0.0625 O 4
10 8 24 11.33 1.3611 M 6
1 1 6 1.83 0.1736 P 2
3 1 16 4.17 1.1736
7 4 18 7.33 0.8403 Critical Path Activities

Duration Forecast
Desired Probability 90.00%
Z Score 1.28
Prescribed Duration (Minutes) 12.00

Answer to Question 3
If the Project Manager wants to see the project's completion rate of
90%, the prescribed duration should be 12 minutes.
Activity Code Activity Name Predecessor Duration
A Apple (pealed and blended) - 2
B Banana (frozen, sliced) - 6
C Carrot (diced, boiled) - 4
D Dill (fresh from the gardens) A 3
E Egg (large, egg whites only) C 5
F Figs (from the Olympus hills) A 4
G Grapes (fresh from the Babylons) B, D, E 2

Expected Duration of Critical Path 10.67

Variance of the Critical Path 1.08
Standard Deviation 1.04

Answer to Question 4
Based on the computed optimal time of completion (calculated duration of the Critical Path), the probability that th
will speed up the completion by 3 minutes is 0.51%

HONOR AND PLEDGE

“I affirm that I shall not give or receive any unauthorized help on this ACTIVITY, and that all work shall be my o
 Project Manager Rating Expected Variance
Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Time
1 1 6 1.83 0.1736 Additional Data
3 2 8 3.33 0.1736 N 12
1 1 4 1.50 0.0625 O 4
10 8 24 11.33 1.3611 M 6
1 1 6 1.83 0.1736 P 2
3 1 16 4.17 1.1736
7 4 18 7.33 0.8403 Critical Path Activities

Probability Forecast
Target Duration (Minutes) 8.00
Z Score -2.57
Probability 0.51%

Question 4
tical Path), the probability that the project will be finished if the project manager

, and that all work shall be my own.”