DATA PERAMALAN LUXOSBOIS

1. METODE REGRESI LINEAR

t Dt t2 Dt*t Ft e
1 387289 1 387289 446142.7619 -58853.76
2 383344 4 766688 493695.99048 -110351.99
3 798085 9 2394255 541249.21905 256835.78
4 522358 16 2089432 588802.44762 -66444.45
5 734414 25 3672070 636355.67619 98058.32
6 564665 36 3387990 683908.90476 -119243.90
21 3390155.00 91 12697724 0.00
3.5 565025.83 15.17 2116287.33 -3.88051072756E-11

b 47553.229 12567242.423 ME 0.0000

a 398590 MSE 18309225630.0699
MAD 118298.0

2. METODE EKSPONENSIAL
Periode Dt S't S"t a b
1 387289 387289 387289 387289
2 383344 386894.50 387249.55 386539.45 -39.45
3 798085 428013.55 391325.95 464701.15 4076.40
4 522358 437448.00 395938.15 478957.8355 4612.20
5 734414 467144.60 403058.80 531230.3924 7120.64
6 564665 476896.64 410442.58 543350.68957 7383.78
Jumlah 3390155 2583686 2375304 2792069 23154

a =(2xS't)-S"t

b=(α/(1-α))(St'-St")

REKAP ERROR
Metode ME MAD MSE
EKS 114986.58 116248.98 172390.61
RL 0.00 118298.03 18309225630.07

PERAMALAN 6 TAHUN KE DEPAN

a 2792069 b 23154
PERIODE M FT
7 1 2815222
8 2 2838376
9 3 2861529
10 4 2884683
11 5 2907836
12 6 2930990
 Column C Linear (Column C)
|e| e2
900000
58853.76 3463765290.34
800000
110351.99 12177561802.06 700000
256835.78 65964618377.42 600000
f(x) = 47553.2285714285 x + 398589.533333334
R² = 0.264828849680928
66444.45 4414864619.40

Axis Title
500000
98058.32 9615434868.33 400000
119243.90 14219108822.87 300000
709788.21 109855353780.42 200000
18309225630.07 100000
0
0 1 2 3 4 5

135311.6 Axis Title

h atau m ft= a+b*m e |e| e^2

1 386500.00 -3156.00 3156.00 9960336.00

1 468777.55 329307.45 329307.45 108443396625.50
1 483570.04 38787.96 38787.96 1504505840.96
1 538351.04 196062.96 196062.96 38440685656.40
1 550734.47 13930.53 13930.53 194059574.14
5 2427933 574932.90 581244.90 148592608033.01

ME 114986.58
MAD 116248.98
MSE 172390.61
 Linear (Column C)

85714285 x + 398589.533333334
49680928

3 4 5 6 7
Axis Title
 PT.COLUMBIA

1. METODE REGRESI LINEAR

t Dt t2 Dt*t Ft e |e|
1 135435 1 135435 133443 1992.19 1992.19
2 137423 4 274846 134693 2729.65 2729.65
3 131098 9 393294 135944 -4845.90 4845.90
4 133345 16 533380 137194 -3849.44 3849.44
5 139802 25 699010 138445 1357.02 1357.02
6 142312 36 853872 139696 2616.48 2616.48
21 819415.00 91 2889837 0.00 17390.67
3.5 136569.17 15.17 481639.50 0

b 1250.543 ME 0.0000
a 132192 SDE 11681624 3417.8
MAD 2898.4

2. METODE EKSPONENSIAL
Periode Dt S't S"t a b h atau m
1 135435 135435 135435 135435
2 137423 135633.80 135454.88 135813 19.88 1
3 131098 135180.22 135427.41 134933 -27.47 1
4 133345 134996.70 135384.34 134609 -43.07 1
5 139802 135477.23 135393.63 135561 9.29 1
6 142312 136160.71 135470.34 136851 76.71 1
Jumlah 819415 812884 812566 813202 35 5

a =(2xS't)-S"t

b=(α/(1-α))(St'-St")

REKAP ERROR
Metode ME MAD MSE
ESWLR 1029.66 2705.84 3617.08
RL 0.00 2898.44 3417.84

PERAMALAN 6 TAHUN KE DEPAN

PERIODE a b FT
7 136851.07 76.71 137388
8 136851.07 76.71 137465
9 136851.07 76.71 137541
10 136851.07 76.71 137618
11 136851.07 76.71 137695
 e2 Chart Title
3968822.89 Column C Linear (Column C)
7450976.12 144000
23482700.66 142000
140000
14818173.65 f(x) = 1250.54285714286 x + 132192.266666667
138000
1841500.70 136000
R² = 0.319059226583324
Axis Title

6845947.66 134000
132000
58408121.68
130000
9734686.95 128000
126000
124000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Axis Title

ft= a+b*m e |e| e^2

135832.60 1590.40 1590.40 2529372.16

134905.56 -3807.56 3807.56 14497513.15
134565.98 -1220.98 1220.98 1490797.04
135570.11 4231.89 4231.89 17908859.12
136927.78 5384.22 5384.22 28989827.38
677802 6177.96 16235.05 65416368.85

ME 1029.66
MAD 2705.84
SDE 3617.08
5 6 7
 PT.COLUMBIA

1. METODE REGRESI LINEAR

t Dt t2 Dt*t Ft e |e|
1 156745 1 156745 159024.86 -2279.86 2279.86
2 164571 4 329142 163780.31 790.69 790.69
3 170982 9 512946 168535.77 2446.23 2446.23
4 172665 16 690660 173291.23 -626.23 626.23
5 180197 25 900985 178046.69 2150.31 2150.31
6 180321 36 1081926 182802.14 -2481.14 2481.14
21 1025481.00 91 3672404 0.00 10774.46
3.5 170913.50 15.17 612067.33 9.701E-12

b 4755.457 ME 0.0000
a 154269 SDE 4595810.1 2143.8
MAD 1795.7

2. METODE EKSPONENSIAL
Periode Dt S't S"t a b h atau m
1 156745 156745 156745 156745
2 164571 157527.60 156823.26 158231.94 78.26 1
3 170982 158873.04 157028.24 160717.84 204.98 1
4 172665 160252.24 157350.64 163153.83 322.40 1
5 180197 162246.71 157840.25 166653.18 489.61 1
6 180321 164054.14 158461.63 169646.65 621.39 1
Jumlah 1025481 959699 944249 975148 1717 5

a =(2xS't)-S"t

b=(α/(1-α))(St'-St")

REKAP ERROR
Metode ME MAD SDE
ESWLR 8102.65 8102.65 9962.86
RL 0.00 1795.74 2143.78

PERAMALAN 6 TAHUN KE DEPAN

PERIODE a b FT
7 154269 4755.5 187558
8 154269 4755.5 192313
9 154269 4755.5 197069
10 154269 4755.5 201824
11 154269 4755.5 206580
 Chart Title
e2
185000
5197748.59
180000 f(x) = 4755.45714285714 x + 154269.4
625183.90 175000
R² = 0.945122109760125
5984034.22 170000
392162.22 165000
Axis Title

Column C
4623851.53 160000 Linear (Column C)
6156069.88 155000
22979050.34 150000
3829841.72 145000
140000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Axis Title

ft= a+b*m e |e| e^2

158310.20 6260.80 6260.80 39197616.64

160922.82 10059.18 10059.18 101187102.27
163476.23 9188.77 9188.77 84433420.60
167142.79 13054.21 13054.21 170412477.05
170268.04 10052.96 10052.96 101062063.87
820120 48615.92 48615.92 496292680.44

ME 8102.65
MAD 8102.65
SDE 9962.86
REKAPITULASI HASIL PERAMALAN

JUMLAH PENJUALAN PRODUK

PERIODE MARKET POTENSIAL
Columbia Olimpic PT.ZAIS
7 137388.024 187557.5 2815222.1 2490276.57538
8 137464.732 192313 2838375.682 2508597.950275
9 137541.439 197068.5 2861529.264 2526919.32517
10 137618.147 201824 2884682.847 2545240.700065
11 137694.854 206579.5 2907836.429 2563562.07496
JUMLAH 12634596.62585
MP 2526919.32517
MS 99750
% MS 4%