Raindance Weather

Winter 2020-21 Outlook

Albuquerque & NM Weather Focus

USA Weather Overview

The Big Question: Will La Nina Defeat Warm Nino 4?

SOURCES: NWS/NOAA/ESRL/CPC/NCDC, SILSO, JAMSTEC/SINTEX, Tropical Tidbits, JISAO, CMC,
BOM (MJO/SOI), Raindance Research, Raindance Models, Wikipedia, Xuru Regression software.
 Winter Driver Expectations
• Fairly strong La Nina (25.5C in winter?)
• Low, but rising Sunspots (nearing 10)
• La Nina after El Nino
• Winter after Dry Monsoon
• East-based La Nina in Fall shifting west with time.
• Warm Atlantic (Nov-Apr AMO +0.10 to +0.20)
• Cool NE Pacific (Nov-Apr PDO 0.0 to -1.0)

Sunspots are proxies for changes in solar radiation. El Nino is the warming of the
Tropical Pacific. La Nina is the cooling of the Tropical Pacific. Neutral years are
when neither El Nino or La Nina conditions develop.

The Monsoon is a wind shift from the west to the south that brings heavy summer
rains to the SW. It is a good indicator for high pressure placement. The North
Atlantic (AMO) is expected to be warm and in its positive phase. The North Pacific
is expected to be warm generally – but still in a warm version of the –PDO phase.
The –PDO usually has a cold ring of water by NW North America, and a warm
tongue extending east of Japan. In 2020-21, that area is likely to be mostly warm.
Weather Bingo
 Winter Analog Approaches
• Similar Summer Weather Filtered by ENSO Conditions
(Nino 3.4)
– Best skill early
– Has correctly picked snowiest month in ABQ for 2013-14, 2014-15,
2015-16, 2016-17, off by one day in 2018-19 (1/1/19 snow storm
prevented December from being the snowiest month) and 2019-20.

• Ocean & Solar Conditions

– Blend of ONI, AMO, Solar, Modoki, ONIp (ONI prior winter), PDO,
Monsoon conditions.
– Best skill later in Winter & Spring
Key Factors in Winter
 51.5F is the Key Number for Snow
In winters with a mean high below 51.5F from 1931-32 to 2019-20,
historically Albuquerque has a 51% chance, 34 of 67 years, that snow will
top the long term average of 9.6” from October to May.
In winters with a mean high of 51.5F or above, there is historically a 9%
chance, 2 in 22 years, that snow in Albuquerque will top the long term
average of 9.6” from October to May.
The change in snowy season frequency at/above 51.5F and below 51.5F is
statistically significant – it is unlikely (p<0.01) to be a fluke or due to chance.
Data below is up to date for the 1931-32 to 2019-20 cold seasons.
 ABQ Snow “Jackpot” Odds

Non-El Nino years in Albuquerque are ~3:1 favorites to see <5 inches of snow
in the snowiest month of the Oct-May cold season. Long term, the city is due
for an inch of snow in four months, and three inches of snow in three months.
 Metro Snow by Elevation
All seasonal snow data for Albuquerque is based on the Sunport records, at
~5,350 feet above sea level. By correlating seasonal snow data for the
Foothills (23 years) to the Sunport, we can see how higher elevation
impacts snow totals. By correlating seasonal snow data for the Valley (25
years) to the Sunport, we can see how lower elevation impacts snow totals.
La Nina Winters in Albuquerque
 How Strong Will the La Nina Get?

From 1950-2019, no ENSO event has finished Dec-Feb more than 1C colder
than September. The La Nina may peak at 25.0-25.5C in Nino 3.4 in December.
History agrees with the Euro: a La Nina that strong in December would warm
quickly given the 25.96C reading in September. My expectation is in yellow.
 How Strong Will the La Nina Get II?

Nino 3.4/4 depicted on the Euro would make 2020 the strongest La Nina since
2010-11. The 2010-11 event developed faster to the West than this event. When
Nino 4 is cold in the Fall (and it isn’t yet), the US tends to be cold from Montana
to Florida in December. As of September, Nino 4 is halfway between 2010 and
2019, still near the 1951-2010 mean of 28.40C.
 La Nina Predictors I
• La Nina winters often feature active hurricane seasons in the Atlantic
Ocean. The ACE index is a summation of total tropical storm, hurricane
and major hurricane days in the Atlantic. When the Atlantic is extremely
active in a La Nina, such as in 1933, 1995, 2005, or 2017, the Western US
tends to be very warm and dry. In 2017-18, Albuquerque went >90 days w/o
measurable precipitation– similar to the other highest ACE years.
 Hot Western Winters by ACE
• Since 1930, no La Nina winters following an active hurricane season in
the Atlantic (ACE above 160, i.e. >150% of average) are cold in the SW
US. In high ACE years, the Northwest is often near average or warm,
while the Southwest roasts. Below 160 ACE, the Northwest is usually
cold, and the Southwest is often near average. Atlantic ACE was 105 by
10/1, but historically seasons are ~80% complete by then.
 Hot Western Winters by ACE II
• The idea for this forecast is that ACE should be compared to 95-175
ACE years in the Atlantic, with a 135 finish expected. The La Ninas in
this range still look like the 80-160 composite, but with the Southeast
heat dome shifted further to the west (left), spreading into NM & Texas.
 La Nina Predictors II
• La Nina winters tend to be colder in Albuquerque when heat develops
earlier than usual in late Spring, such as in 2020. This is likely because
MJO patterns favoring heat in May, can favor cold in winter.

In the 2016-17 and 2017-18 La Ninas, Albuquerque didn’t hit 90 degrees until
early June. Colder La Ninas/near La Ninas like 2010, 2011, and 2012 all hit 90F
in May. The cold winter of 2000-01 first hit 90F a bit later than 2020 (May 7th).
 La Nina Predictors III
• The best match on solar, hurricane, and heat timing variables is a blend of
1954 (x2), 1964 (x2), and 2008. This blend features low solar activity, with a
135 ACE index, and an early start to 90 degree heat (1=5/1, 31=5/31, etc).

A regression of the three variables outputs a near identical value to 1954, a

high of 46.5F, +/-2.5F at 92% certainty. If the ACE Index finishes well under
150, that scenario could verify. My sense is 1964 is about right. The very
warm 2008-09 winter followed a major La Nina year, while the other two
followed El Ninos like 2020-21 will. The October 1964 pattern is very similar
to 2020, with a warm NW, and Hurricane Hilda one of the few (<10 since 1931)
hurricanes to hit the Central Gulf Coast in October, as Delta did in 2020.
Limits in La Nina Precipitation
 La Nina Predictors IV
• Higher hurricane activity in the Atlantic also favors a drier, less snowy
winter. The relationship is strongest between ACE and highs, with
precipitation, snow, and snowiest month snow totals all seeing weaker
relationships.
 La Nina Snow

La Nina years following a dry monsoon tend to see January as the snowiest
month.
 La Nina Predictors V
• La Ninas tend to peak in intensity in Oct-Nov or in Dec-Jan. The events
that peak earlier often feature colder or wetter conditions in the
Southwest US during winter. The 2020-21 La Nina is expected to peak
during October/November below the surface of 100-180W at the equator.
 La Nina Cold Waves
• La Nina years are generally warm in the Southwest, but in inactive hurricane
seasons, November-February tend to see more very cold days (10 degrees below
average or colder), and occasionally severe waves of fierce cold. The very active
2017 hurricane season was followed by 0 very cold days in Nov-Feb.
 La Nina Cold Waves II
• Since 1990, there have been five notable La Nina cold waves from
November-February in Albuquerque.
• Type A: A five day average temperature 10F or more below average
(January 2008, 12/30/10-1/3/11, December 2011).
• Type B: A ten day, or longer, average temperature 10F or more below
average (Nov 2000).
• Type C: A five day average temperature 20F or more below average
(February 2011).

• Of these recent major cold waves, 2000-01, 2007-08, 2011-12 all

followed fairly low ACE Atlantic hurricane seasons.
• Lows in the 40s in June, as in 2020 tend to precede below 0F lows in
Albuquerque in November-February far more often than years without
lows in the 40s in June (p<0.05).
• The mid-September 2020 cold snap is indicative of the level of cold
that should come through the Southwest 1-4 times in November-
February.
• Cold has come in Albuquerque at 45-day intervals since June: the
early June cold push, late July, and then the 9/9 storm.
 Analog Years:
Years with Similar Conditions
 Summer La Nina Matches I
• As a blend, 1995-96, 2003-04, 2007-08 (x5), 2012-13 (x2), 2019-20
produces weak La Nina conditions, following a weak El Nino, in a
period of low solar activity, with the North Atlantic and North Pacific
also in the correct phases.
• The blend matches for a very hot August in New Mexico, with very
little rain during the monsoon season as well. The cooler Midwest look
in August-September also shows up when the analogs are un-
weighted.
• MJO patterns in 2020 are closest to 2007 in recent weeks out of the
five years selected, with MJO progression in phase five around 10/1 in
2007 and 2020.
• The blend also features an above average hurricane season according
to the ACE Index, but the inclusion of 2007 calms down the
hyperactive season of 1995.
 Summer La Nina Matches II

• Analogs are a strong match to highs and monsoon precipitation in

Albuquerque.
• Spring looks extremely dry – less than half of average precipitation.
• There are brief wet periods. In the analog blend, the wettest month of
November-April sees one inch of precipitation – double to triple average
for any month in that period.
• Winter is actually a bit wetter than average, with the first wet December
depicted since 2015 for Albuquerque. If the MJO continues to behave
similarly to 2007, a wet December would make sense. La Nina Decembers
with <160 ACE more likely to see above average precipitation than
Decembers with >160 ACE at statistically significant levels.
 Unusual Summer Features
• Once again, June 2020 did not hit 100 degrees in Albuquerque.
• July and August both reached 100 degrees in Albuquerque. Since 1931,
this has only happened in 1934, 1979, 1980, and 1994. These are generally
warm/wet winters in the SW US. In the predictive NAO periods for winter,
1979 is actually the closest match.
• In La Nina years, more frequent hot high temperatures from April to
September correspond to colder winters.
• The six driest monsoon patterns in La Ninas in the past 90 years are 1954,
1956, 1983, 2000, 2011, and 2016, They have not historically preceded
extremely hot and extremely dry winters. Their composite is for a near
average winter of highs and precipitation.
• Warm dry periods in late Summer often precede snow storms in November
– although they tend to not be substantial in La Nina years.
• Unusual shots of intense cold air in September over New Mexico, such as
in 2020, show up in several years that look like the winter analogs (e.g.
1961). The rapid replacement of hot weather with very cold weather is
expected to be a recurring feature of winter.
• A 45-day recurring pattern appears to be setting up: Tropical Storm Fay,
Hurricanes Laura and Delta were in the same area at 45-day intervals (early
July, late August, early October). Cold shots into New Mexico have poured
in at 45-day intervals: early June, late July, early September.
 Subsurface Trends

The water below the Tropical Pacific is behaving similarly to the 2007-08 La
Nina. If that continues, La Nina could peak twice: Oct/Nov and then January.
 Ocean & Solar Similarities Map I

The La Nina core in Fall is much further East than what the models show for
winter. However, in the analogs, there is a transition from a La Nina with the cold
core to the east to a La Nina with a cold core around 140-150W in winter.
 Ocean & Solar Similarities Map II

A strong match to solar/ocean conditions and US weather was found using the
blend. A La Nina core around 140-150W, with a warm blotch of water between the
La Nina and Alaska is what shows up on the CFS and in the analogs.
 Snow in Analog Years

The Midwest, New England and Northwest generally do well in the analog package.
 Snow in Analog Years Output

High terrain of Northern NM may eke out a snowy year. Most of the Southwest looks
well below average, with a dry/warm Fall and Spring offsetting a normal winter.
 Snow in La Nina Years

In both weak & strong La Nina years, it is NW New Mexico that sees near
average snow. Most of NM sees below average snow typically.
 Winter Analogs: Oceans & Sun I
Ocean & Sun Analog I-II slides are Albuquerque specific. Slide III has other sites.

The ‘third table’ is my snow regression table - factors from the analogs that predict snow
well. Snow is expected to be around average for the October-May cold season.
 Winter Analogs: Oceans & Sun II
• These are the Albuquerque counting stats from the analog blend:
– 17 Days with a high of <=40F expected from Oct-May (analogs trend
adjusted)
– 60 Days with a high of <=50F expected from Oct-May (analogs trend
adjusted). There was one in September already.
– 88 Days with a low of <=32F expected from Oct-May (analogs trend
adjusted)

• From November to February, seven days are expected to be 10F below

average – or colder.

• Coldest temperature of Oct-May? 12F (analog trend adjusted).

• October, November, March and May highs all look 1-3F hotter than average.
Mid-December to mid-January is the strongest signal for a cold month.
January could also finish below average. February & April look near
average.

• Oct-May nights at or below 32F were common in these analogs. But they
are becoming less common due to the Urban Heat Island effect and rapid
March warming. The forecast above adjusts for warming nights over time.
Winter Analogs: Oceans & Sun III

The analog data favors below average

snowfall in Red River, Albuquerque, Gila
Hot Springs, Ruidoso, and Roswell.
However, the very northwest portion of the
state, right near Colorado, including
Farmington and Chama – saw above
snowfall totals.

The El Paso, Flagstaff, Amarillo, Grand

Junction, and Pueblo average works out to
86% of average, which may end up being a
better representation of the New Mexico
totals as those points are south, west, east,
and north of the state. You would expect
New Mexico to perform similarly overall,
and 86% of average is closer to the
regression estimate for Albuquerque
shown earlier.
 Oceans & Sun Composite Map

Winter is expected to be akin to a colder version of last year: a cool-average

West, with the East warm, but not to the level of warmth observed last year.
December is risky – if Nino 4 rapidly cools, the SW would be warm, with Montana
to Florida cold, especially if MJO phase five does not develop as expected.
 Analog Background I
The 1995 & 2007 La Ninas developed similarly to 2020. As of the early October
weekly data, 1995 is closer in Nino 1.2/3, and 2007 is closer in Nino 3.4/4. So
2007 (x5) and the warm years (2003, 2012, 2012, 2019) are used to maintain sea
surface temperatures between 1995 and 2007 while fixing other issues.

The transition into winter has been designed to

have five years colder than 1995-96 (2007 x5) and
four years warmer than 1995 (2003, 2012, 2012,
2019), since 1995 has been a better match until
very recently for sea surface temperatures.
Means are from a 1951-2010 base period.
 Analog Background II
After a fast start, the Atlantic hurricane season slowed in September. As late
as 8/27 the season was running 70% above average on the ACE Index. By 9/11,
it was within 1% of average. ACE is expected to finish around 135, about half-
way between 9/11 and 8/27. Years with very low and very high Atlantic ACE
were generally avoided.

Solar activity is rising after falling for over half a decade. Forecasting rising
solar activity is harder than the declines. There is no reliable ceiling for
sunspot activity. Some higher solar years were included in this forecast
because there is risk that solar activity rises faster than forecast.

June-October 2020 featured very strong high pressure systems in the northern
hemisphere leading to severe heat waves. There were also strong derechos,
and land falling tropical storms in the Northeast United States. These are the
reasons for the inclusion of 2012-13 and 2003-04, which are not La Ninas, and
featured average solar activity. There is a tendency for cold Western winters
starting 2007 when sea-ice extent in September drops to <4.3 million square
kilometers in cold ENSO years. Ice extent fell half way between the historic
2012 lows and the low sea ice 2007 this year. The December ‘Montana to
Florida’ / MJO 5 warm pattern showed in late September 2020, as it did in late
September 2007 before returning in late December 2007.
 Analog Background III
The PDO is favored negative for Nov-Apr. This is based on estimating Nino 1.2
temperatures in October, and the base state of the PDO in March-August. The
PDO moves from its March-August base state by Nino 1.2 trends in October.
The PDO may trend positive late winter as Nino 1.2 warms as depicted by cold
moving east on the monthly trend slide later.

The NAO, which measures North Atlantic pressure patterns, can be forecast in
winter using its changes in April to May, and March to September. The NAO
may go negative for a time in December based on its behavior in predictive
periods in similar NAO years. When the NAO is negative, the Eastern US often
turns quite cold as cold air can not be forced out quickly by the jet stream.
 Analog Background IV
The QBO, a band of wind above the equator that reverses direction every so
often (‘quasi-biennially’), tied to global weather patterns should be positive.
However, it has behaved unusually, with the timing and trends of its reversal
in mid-2020 pretty dissimilar to most La Nina years. Last year, 2004-05 was a
close match on SST trends in Nino 3.4 year over year and in the QBO zone. It
matched well in winter. The QBO blend for 2020 should work similarly well.

To replicate the QBO behavior this year, a blend of 1966, 2010, 2016 was used
to match timing and trends. The blend below looks like the US temperature
map used in the forecast, even though the actual analogs have a –QBO winter.
I find that a rising QBO summer to winter, as in 2020, behaves similarly to a
+QBO in winter in La Nina. These QBO matches are consistently above (pink)
or below (blue) the 2020 observed data, to replicate unusual trends and timing.
 Analog Background V
• The MJO, a cluster of powerful thunderstorms circulating the Earth, was
in a similar position in early October 2020 to October 2007. Between
observed weather, La Nina strength, climate signals and the MJO
tendencies are all pretty similar in 2007 to 2020.
Final Forecast
 2020-21 Hand Drawn Map

Winter is expected to resemble recent warm Eastern winters such as 2007, 2012,
2016, 2018, and 2019. The difference is, the NAO will likely go negative for a
time, stopping out of control warmth in most Eastern zones. Areas west of El
Paso and north of 35N are expected to finish winter colder than average.
 National Snow Generalization

The Northern US is expected to see a normal to snowy year away from the
coasts. A very dry and warm Spring is expected to hold back SW snow totals.
 2020-21 Monthly Progression

Analogs have a cold West winter but a cold East spring. In Sept-Oct, 2003 is top
match due to the –NAO values in Oct 2003 that forced a warm NW. By winter
2007 will take over. I have more confidence in the DJF look than the months.
 New Mexico Snow Pack Trends
• Taos Powderhorn in Northern New Mexico, at 11,000 feet above sea
level is expected to see snow pack peak near the 2010-11 to 2019-20
average of 62 inches. However, the peak is expected to come early,
with a quick melt off from a warm/dry Spring.
 Sanity Checking: Objective Matches
• Top La Nina High/Precip Match for Jun-Sept in ABQ: 1973, 2007, 2007
• Top ACE (135) Matches: 2008, 2011, 2016
• Top Nino 3.4 (25.5C) Matches: 1954, 1984
• Top Nino 3.4 prior year (27.12C) Matches: 1954, 2005
 Sanity Checking: -ENSO & Sea Ice
• Cold ENSO years with Arctic Sea Ice Extent below 4.3 million square km in
September look very different from years with at least 4.3m square km of
sea ice in September since 2007. Prior to 2007, sea ice extent was not
regularly dropping below 5.0 million square km as it does now. 2011 is
borderline – it was cold between the cold West and cold East areas and
right at 4.3 million square km so it is included in both composites.
 Sanity Checking Winter With the MJO
• A stronger La Nina than depicted in the raw analog blend (25.7C) is fairly
likely. If you select La Ninas that lingered in MJO phase five (near
Indonesia) around 10/1, the best matches since 1975 are 2007, 2011, and
2016. This blend is a 25.5C (-1.0C) low solar La Nina in winter following a
27.2C El Nino, almost identical to the expected El Nino to La Nina trend.
Sanity Checking with Hurricane Season
• La Nina years since 1971, with low ACE in the NE Pacific (<132), and near
average La Nina ACE in the Atlantic (95-175), feature a similar look to the
winter forecast. La Nina years from 1933-2017 average 127 Atlantic ACE.

The ACE blend features a mild West/warm East look, like the main analogs. Each
blend has similar La Nina strength, 25.63C (ACE blend) v. 25.70C (main blend).
 Sanity Checking With ENSO Order
• La Nina after El Nino is a reliable cold pattern for the Northwest US and
typically warm in the South and East. In the past ten La Ninas that
followed an El Nino, at least a portion of the NW is cold or near average
each time. In 7/10 years, parts of TX were at least 3F above average for the
winter. Cold tends to sink into the SW US in January in these winters.
 Sanity Checking With ENSO Order II
• In winters following El Nino winters (24 years from 1950-2019), the October
NAO tendency runs opposite the winter NAO tendency at statistically
significant levels. In other words, -NAO Octobers following an El Nino
winter, are much more likely to precede +NAO winters. The opposite also
holds true. In October 2020, the NAO appears likely to finish pretty
negative The +NAO La Nina winter look is generally favorable for the West.

All La Ninas since 1950

with an NAO value
averaging at least +0.4
from Dec-Feb.
 Sanity Checking With ENSO Strength
• Some models show a La Nina that peaks much stronger than my depiction,
the strongest La Nina since 1988 or 1999. The strongest La Ninas since
1950 are 1973, 1975, 1988, 1999, 2007. These years all had a DJF peak in
Nino 3.4 below 25.0C – this is 1.5C or more below the 1951-2010 average in
that zone. The blend of these years looks like the +NAO La Nina
composite, the low-ENSO sea ice composite, and my analogs.

A La Nina peak in the strong

threshold is pretty plausible for at
least a short period given the
observed conditions and model
forecasts. So this look is pretty
likely to show up at some point. It is
unlikely to be a completely
dominant look for the entire winter
though.
QBO Trend Matches – last year
QBO Trend Matches – this year

Recent positive QBO La

Nina winters like 1999,
2008, and 2010 do not
feature consistently
similar QBO values and
trends to 2020. If 1961 is
thrown into the left blend
to get a closer year over
year transition in Nino
3.4, the cold expands in
the West as in the main
analog blend, with the
QBO blend only a bit
further from 2020 trends
overall.
Common ABQ Snowfall Times in Analogs
• All time frames are based on October of cold season (i.e. Feb 24 in 2012
is February 24, 2013).
• November 22-29 featured snow events in 2007 and 2019.
• December 10-18 featured snow events in 1995, 2003, 2007 and 2019.
• December 28-January 1 featured snow events in 1995, 2007 and 2012.
• January 14-16 featured snow events in 2012 and 2019.
• January 29-February 4 featured snow events in 1995, 2003, 2007, 2019.
• February 11-16 featured snow events in 2007 and 2019.
• February 21-24 featured snow events in 2003 and 2012.
• February 28-March 6 featured snow events in 1995, 2003 and 2007.

• Only eight days are expected to see at least 0.10” precipitation from
October to May. Many of the snows during the cold season should
feature little moisture. Early December, late January, early March snows
would be consistent with the 45-day cold shot timing since June.
• The wettest day from October to May is expected to see around 0.57”
precipitation. December precipitation is not impacted by La Nina in
lower ACE years – that is the month to watch for bigger storms.

• The most common snowfall dates are December 31 (1995, 2012),

February 1 (1995, 2003), February 4 (2007, 2019), February 24 (2003,
2012).
 What Was Right Last Year?

The NM outlook called for a snowy winter in the mountains, with an all or
nothing signal for heavy snow in Nov/April. This was correct. November was
cold and very snowy, and an average winter followed. A warm, windy Spring
destroyed the snow early. The national forecast was mostly wrong, as it was
a very hot winter almost everywhere outside the SW.
Albuquerque Forecast Confidence
 Unusual Events to Watch For
• Heavy ABQ snow in November (the city had 4-8” of snow for
Thanksgiving 2019) often clusters together in the records and then
vanishes for decades. 1946, 1947 both had huge November snowstorms.
So did 1992,1993. 1952,1953 both had over two inches of snow in
November.
• Accumulating snow in Albuquerque after April 7th is more likely at
statistically significant levels (p<0.05) in low solar years. This verified, yet
again in mid-April 2020, even in a warm and dry Spring.
• Snow, especially heavy snow in March is heavily disfavored in March in
low solar years. There is a chance for solar activity to rise quickly later in
the period – unlike in recent years which featured declining solar activity.
• The last La Nina month to see three inches of snow in Albuquerque was
December 2000. It may be about due to happen again.
• In early October 2020, Albuquerque was in an extended period without
measurable rain – running at least September 10th to October 10th.
• Similarly timed extended dry periods do appear in all five analogs: 9/28 to
11/1 in 1995, 9/10 to 10/3 in 2003, and 10/10 to 11/12 in 2003, 10/4 to 11/22
in 2007, 9/13 to 11/9 in 2012, and 10/4 to 10/28 in 2019. The blended time
frame without rain is 44-days, or until about 10/23/2020 – which is
consistent with the 45-day repeating pattern mentioned earlier.
 Any Hidden Cold?
• Sometimes, a 30-day period is very cold or very hot, but is not seen in the
data because the 30-day period stared mid-month.
• The table looks at highs in ABQ for ‘months’ starting on the 16th, and
ending on the 15th of the next month. In the data set, December 16th to
January 15th is cold. Mid October to Mid November also looks very warm
in the data.
• In La Nina years, the ACE index is highly correlated (r-squared=0.43) to
how warm the Dec 16th to Jan 15th high will be in ABQ. The generalization
is accurate to +/-3.4F, at 82% confidence in historical cases. The expected
final ACE of 135 projects to ~47F, +/-3.4F – which is consistent with the
analogs.
 What Could Go Wrong?
• Fast cooling in Nino 4 could lead to a cold East December and a warm
SW. So far 2020 is more similar to the 2007 MJO/Nino 4/MEI than 2010.
• The NAO is forecast to go negative in December based on how it has been
behaving in predictive months. If it does not go negative, the east will be
warmer than shown.
• A sudden transition to a stronger La Nina or toward an El Nino in late
winter or Spring would favor very different late winter outcomes. Any
rapid cooling late winter will favor Eastern cold. Any rapid warming –
more likely if the La Nina remains fairly strong into December before
decaying as the models show – will favor late Western cold.
• If Texas is hit by a major hurricane later this year, the odds of a wet March
will increase substantially. In NM, Non-El Nino Marches following a major
hurricane landfall in Texas have the same long-term average wetness as
El Nino Marches.
• The MJO is expected to spend much of winter in phases 3-4-5-6.
Substantial deviation from that would lead to different conditions. Outside
phases 3-6, amplitude is forecast to be weak and erratic.
• A colder West look than depicted would be something like 1954, 1964,
2007, 2012 as a blend. The worst case is that the high ACE, second year
hot/dry La Ninas take over some how: 1933, 1950, 1975, 1999, 2008, 2017.
 A Final Note on 2020-21 Analogs
• My forecast process uses seven variables. It scores and weights them to create
matching blends to current conditions. These blends use solar conditions,
weather conditions, ocean conditions and ocean trends. Matches on all four
factors are A-level, matches to three are B-level, matches to two are C-level,
and matches to one are D-level.
• A-level matches “look” like future observed weather most months for a long
period. B-level matches will tend to match well long-term for precipitation or
temperature patterns, but not both. C-level matches will get regional trends right,
but miss nationally. D-level matches will “reliably” miss important features.
• A level: 2007, 1995
• B level: 1931, 1954, 1961, 1964, 1966, 1973, 1988, 2003, 2012, 2019
• C level: 1935, 1943, 1959, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2016, 2017
• D Level: 1936, 1938, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1998, 1999, 2010
• The B-level winter years often beat the A-level years in Fall/Spring, because the
Fall/Spring weights are different than Winter. The Rockies cold shot shows in
Sept 1961. The hot NW Oct shows in 1964, 1988, 2003. Hurricane Delta shows
as Hurricane Hilda in October 1964 at a near identical time/intensity/track.
• The C-level analogs match well at times in specific areas of the country. 2011
was a good Western US analog for August for instance (very hot and dry), while
2008 has been a much better Eastern analog with the Gulf hurricanes. Both beat
2010 which had no US Gulf Coast hurricane landfalls in a more active hurricane
season, and different temperature patterns to 2020 in Aug (West)/Sept (SE).