AN ADAPTIVE BILEVEL PROGRAMMING MODEL FOR

NONPARAMETRIC PREDICTION INTERVALS OF WIND

POWER GENERATION
A PROJECT REPORT

Submitted by

AKILA.A 812716105003
KOWSALYA.M 812716105014
POONGODI.G 812716105021
PRIYA.P 812716105024

in partial fulfillment for the award of the degree

of

BACHELOR OF ENGINEERING
IN

ELECTRICAL AND ELECTRONICS ENGINEERING

MEENAKSHI RAMASWAMY ENGINEERING COLLEGE

ANNA UNIVERSITY: CHENNAI 600 025

APRIL &2020

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 AN ADAPTIVE BILEVEL PROGRAMMING MODEL FOR
NONPARAMETRIC PREDICTION INTERVALS OF WIND
POWER GENERATION

A PROJECT REPORT

Submitted by

AKILA.A 812716105003
KOWSALYA.M 812716105014
POONGODI.G 812716105021
PRIYA.P 812716105024

VIVA-VOICE EXAMINATION

The viva-voice examination of this project has been done as a part of Curriculum
in BACHELOR OF ENGINEERING degree in ELECTRICAL AND
ELECTRONICS ENGINEERING held on______22-09-2020______.

INTERNAL EXAMINER EXTERNAL EXAMINER

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 ANNA UNIVERSITY: CHENNAI 600 025
BONAFIDE CERTIFICATE

Certified that this project report “AN ADAPTIVE BI-LEVEL

PROGRAMMING MODEL FOR NON-PARAMETRIC
PREDICTION INTERVALS OF WIND POWER GENERATION” is
the bonafide work of “AKILA.A (812716105003), KOWSALYA.M
(812716105014), POONGODI.G (812716105021), PRIYA.P
(812716105024)” who carried out the project work under my
supervision.

SIGNATURE SIGNATURE
Prof.T.TAMIZHSELVAN M.E., Mr.J.ANANDHARAJ M.Tech.,
SUPERVISOR
HEAD OF THE DEPARMENT ASSISTANT PROFESSOR
DEPARTMENT OF EEE DEPARTMENT OF EEE
MEENAKSHI RAMASWAMY MEENAKSHI RAMASWAMY
ENGINEERING COLLEGE ENGINEERING COLLEGE
THATHANUR-621804 THATHANUR-621804

Submitted to Project Work Viva-voce held on …22-09-2020……………….

INTERNAL EXAMINER EXTERNAL EXAMINER

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 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
It is great opportunity to express our sincere thanks to all the people who have
contributed to the successful completion of our project work through their support,
encouragement and guidance.
With profoundness, We express our deep sense of thanks to Ln. M. R.
RAHUNAATHAN M.A, M.L., Correspondent & Secretary for providing me an
opportunity to take his valuable advice to our technical knowledge in planning and designing
independently and confidently.
We would like to express our special thanks of gratitude to
Ln.M.R.KAMALBABU,M.B.A.,Join Secretary, M.R. Educational Institutions, Thathanur
who helped me a lot in finalizing this project within the limited time frame.
We are very much thankful to Dr.R.RAJAMANIKAM, Director, M.R. Educational
Institutions, Thathanur for his valuable guidance keep interest and encouragement at various
stages of our project.
We hearty thanks to Dr.T.PICHAIAPPA, Mr.N.RAMALINGAM,B.E., and
Mr. N.GANESAN,M.E., Advisors, M.R.Educational Institutions, Thathanur for giving a
moral support to finish this confidently.
We express our honour thanks to Dr.G.SENTHILKUMARAN,M.Tech.,P.hD.,The
Managing Director of M.R.E.C,Thathanur, for his support and encouragement for making
this project successfully.
We are sincerely graceful to Dr.N.MATHIAZHAGAN M.E,P.hD., Principal M.R.E.C,
Thathanur, for his valuable support and encouragement in carrying out the project.
We express our gratitude to Mr.T.TAMIZHSELVAN, M.E., Head of the Department
of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, for his unstinted support and the facilities made
available to do the project
We extended our special and sincere thanks to our guides, Mr.J.ANANDHARAJ,
M.Tech., Assistant Professor in Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering
for their intellectual and inspiring guidance during the project and helping in the successful
completion of our project work.

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 ABSTRACT

It is hard to obtain precise wind power forecasting due to the chaotic nature of
weather systems. Prediction intervals become an efficient tool to quantify the
uncertainty involved in wind power forecasting. Traditional central prediction
intervals are widely produced by forecasters, however, which might be conservative
with respect to interval width and not well fit the practical conditions. This paper
develops a novel adaptive bi-level programming (ABP) model, with extreme learning
machine based quantile regression as the follower’s problem and tuning hyper
parameters of quantile proportions as the leader’s problem. The proposed ABP model
aims at minimizing the average interval width subject to well calibration. In order to
overcome the difficulties in disposing of the intractable nested structure of bi-level
programming, the ABP model is equivalently transformed into a single-level
nonlinear programming problem with bilinear terms. An improved spatial branch-
and-bound (ISBB) algorithm is proposed to efficiently solve the reformulated bilinear
programming problem. In the ISBB algorithm, an innovative bounds tightening
method is developed to tighten the convex relaxation of the bilinear constraint and
enhance the convergence. Experimental studies based on actual wind farm of USA
under four seasons show the significant effectiveness and high robustness of the
developed ABP model, as well as the excellent global optimum attainment and
convergence performance of the proposed ISBB algorithm traditional.

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 TABLE OF CONTENT
CHAPTER NO TITLE PAGE NO
ABSTRACT v
1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 OBJECTIVE 01
03
1.2 EXISTING SYSTEM 03
1.3 DRAWBACKS 04
1.4 PROPOSED SYSTEM 04
1.5 ADVANTAGES 05
1.6 APPLICATION 05
2 LITERATUREN SURVEY 13
3 WIND POWER GENERATION 14
3.1 INTRODUCTION 18
4 SYSTEM ANALYSIS AND REQUIREMENTS 33
4.1 HARDWARE REQUIREMENTS 33
4.2 SOFTWARE REQUIREMENTS 33
4.3 MATLAB DESCRIPTION 33
4.4 HISTORY 34
4.5 SYNTAX 34
4.5.1 VARIABLES 34
4.5.2 STRUCTURES 34

4.5.3 FUNCTIONS 34

4.5.4 FUNCTION HANDLES 34

4.5.5 CLASS AND OBJECT-ORIENTED

PROGRAMMING 35

4.6 MATLAB PRODUVT DESCRIPTION 36

4.6.1 THE LANGUAGE OF TECHNICAL
COMPUTING 36

4.6.2 MATH. GRAPHICS. PROGRAMMING 36

4.6.3 SCALE. INTEGRATE. DEPLOG 36

4.6.4 KEY FEATURES 36
4.7 THE MATLAB LANGUAGE 37
4.8 THE MATLAB WORKING ENVIRONMENT 37
4.9 HANDLE GRAPHICS 38
4.10 THE MATLAB MATHEMATICAL
FUNCTION LIBRARY 38
5 WORKING IMPLEMENTATION 39
6 CONCLUSION 42

7 REFERENCES 43

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