AWASH BASIN AUTHORITY

Basin Study, Research and Information Management Directorate

Term of Reference (TOR) For Water Use Modeling

First Draft

Oct, 2014
Table of contents

Water use Modeling

1. Introduction
2. Background
2.1. Natural Resources of the Basin
2.2. Socio-economy Development
2.3. Institutional Arrangement
3. Objectives
4. Project area
5. Scope of the Project
6. Key tasks and Responsibilities
6.1. Demography
6.2. Topography
6.3. Soil, land use and cover
6.4. Socio-economy
6.5. Climate and hydrology
6.6. Water resources
6.7. GIS and remote sensing
7. Expected Outputs
8. Deliverables
9. Reporting Schedule
10. Qualifications
11. Project Organization and Man

Water use modeling for Awash River basin

 1.1. Introduction
Awash River basin is the seventh largest catchment in the country. The large part of the
catchment contributes to the river flow. The river rises from in the high lands of Ethiopia in the
particular place of Gin chi and it flows to rift valley in the north eastern direction of Ethiopia.
The Awash River basin is the fourth largest catchment in Ethiopia, but only the seventh in terms
of water resources. Due to strategic location, good access to facilitate and availability of the
land and water resources. It is the most developed river basin in Ethiopia with respect to
irrigation development. Water is a fundamental resource for soico-economic development and
essential for maintaining healthy environment. Currently, there is a rising of demand for water
resources as a result of increasing population and advancement of technology investment in
irrigation, industry and tourism in the Awash River basin.

The expansion of urbanization and the rapid population growth has a great impact on the
consumption of water supply in the basin. Supplying water of the required quantity and quality
are one of the most important objectives of water resource modeling. Determination of current
water use and prediction of future water demands are necessary for water supply modeling
and management. Domestic, industrial and agricultural uses represent the major demands for
water resources.

Hydropower generation, recreation and fishing are other types of water use. Each of these
uses has different water quality requirements. Rivers and lakes are important resources for
public water supplies but surface waters are being polluted by industrial and wastes,
agricultural return flow.

2. Back ground
 2.1. Natural resources of the basin

Ethiopia has twelve major river basin .one of these river basin is awash river basin which flows
in the rift valley and north eastern part of the country that covers; oromia, afar, amhara,
Somalia, SNNP and Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa Addiministrative councils. Awash River basin
is the most developed river basin in the country with respect to irrigation development. It has
good access to facilitate and availability of water resource. Additionally, the resources for socio-
economic development and maintaining healthy environment, irrigation, domestic and
industrial purposes. There are large agricultural land areas both the private sector and
organizational sector which grows cotton, sugarcane and different kinds of vegetable and fruits.
There are also people who live with fishing, in some areas of the river basin. koka reservoir is
the first attempt of the government of Ethiopia to developed and used for hydroelectric power
and fishing purposes which is situated in Lomie /modjo/woreda, east shoa zone ,oromia
regional state. The reservoir should essentially be properly managed water bodies.

Water is essential resources for every things, survival and sustainable development. According
to Ethiopian water resources management (EWRM) in 2004 E.C set out water is commonly
owned by all people of Ethiopia ,All Ethiopian citizen will have access to get sufficient water
with quality to satisfy basic human needs and water used as economic and social value.
Currently there is a rising demand for water resources as a result increasing population and
advancement of Technology investment in irrigation, industry and Tourism in the Awash River
basin.

At present, the water in Awash River and its tributaries are used for different purposes. The
major Industries, Textile, Tannery, cement and food complex factories are using high
consumption of ground and surface water. Therefore, wit out the proper river basin planning
quantity and quality of water, sustainable development will be impossible and life is in danger.
Awash River basin is subdivided in to seven zones, uplands, upper valley, middle valley, eastern
catchment, western catchment, lower valley and lower plains based on physiographic and agro
ecology. The total coverage of 110,000km2.

2.2. Socio-Economic development

The Awash River basin agriculture is the main economic activity which is different production
system. Farming activities, agro-economy natural resources and settlement characteristics.
there is mixed crop livestock system that is the most important farming system in the plateau
and the high land areas of the basin .there is also agro-pastoralist in which crop and live stock
are important and irrigation is practiced using traditional and modern river diversion system,
pumps and small irrigation system.

The other is pastoralist characterized by the movement of pastoralists with their live stock in
search of grazing areas. Conflicts over water use and grazing areas are becoming a constant
source of the irrigated farming; small, medium and large scale irrigation is practiced in all parts
of the basin the medium and large schemes are state and private commercial farms producing
sugar cane, cotton, fruits, vegetables and cereals are cultivated. Irrigation is one means by
which agricultural production can be increased to meet the growing demands. However, in
order to meet reliable and sustainable food security development of irrigation schemes on
various scales demands.

The population of the Basin prediction in 2014 G.C is estimated to be 14.9 million from the
CSA report of 2007 G.C. base on the regional growth rate (i.e Oromya=2.9% ,Amhara=1.7%,
Afar=2.2 %, Addis Ababa=2.1%, Dire Dawa=2.5%,Somali= 2.6% and SNNP =2.9% ). This
population is placing increasing pressure on the natural resources resulting in its degradation.
Even though it is obvious that the population residence.

The expansion of urban development in Ethiopia is mainly originated from three factors these
are the invading the Italian colony, the military comp and the Djibouti Addis Ababa railway
infrastructure expansion. Out of the three reasons two of them are common to all parts of the
country whereas the last is specifically located in the eastern part of the country in which
Awash Basin is found. These reasons have their own contribution in high number of urban areas
in the basin. The main population centers of urban areas in the country i.e. Addis Ababa, Dire
Dawa, Adama and Bishoftu lie in Awash Basin. More or less the concentration of urban center
in Awash Basin is easily seen in sub basins such as uplands , upper valley and western
catchment are the common in which both the impact of water pollution and environmental
degradation are highly visible . Urban areas are highly populated than the rural areas when we
compare with their population density (i.e. the number of people per given living territory area
in daily activity). In the other side high lands areas are more densely populated than the
lowlands the reasons behind this is high land are convenient climate condition for life and
vulnerability to epidemic diseases in lowlands.

Population prediction which is taken from the 2007 G.C. PCR indicates that out of the total
population in 2014 G.C 37.3 % people live in urban and 62.7% in rural areas.
The population residence patter in both agro ecological zones have direct relation with their
daily economic activity .Even though there is current trend to transform from pastoralists to
semi agrarian pastoralist, most of the people in lowland part of the Awash basin are pastoralists
who move daily by following their domestic animals tail for searching grazing land with
residence pattern temporary dispersed residence. Whereas, most of the people in the
highlands and semi-highlands involve agricultural activity with permanent disperse residence.
These have their own implication in providing social services such as sanitary and supply of
quality drinking water, schools and health centers to improve their life standard. Majority of
this population is engaged in agriculture and animal husbandry.
The distribution of the national population by broad age groups proportion in
2007 seems like this the population age under 15 years covers 45 % , the
population age in between 15-64 which is known as working age group 51.8%
and the proportion of population aged 65 years and over is 3.2% (CSA Report
2007 G.C.). Generally both the age group i.e population age under 15 years and
population aged 65 years and over are called nonworking age group.
From this we can know the age grouped population of Awash basin which critical
for knowing our potential and utilization of community based development such as
water shade management. Out of the total population of Awash basin the age
distribution in 2014 G.C is estimated as follows under 15 years 6,708,416; age group
15-64 years 7,722,133 and age group above 477,043. This means if Awash basin
authority together with all concerning administrative bodies at different level wisely
mobilizing and leading the population , there is 7,722,133 working age group
(Productive manpower ) potential to enhance sustainable development . In other
word population will become an important input in wisely using and management
of the basin rather than it becoming pressure to the basin.
The regional distribution of the population from the CSA report of 2007 G.C. prediction in 2014
G.C base on the regional growth rate (i.e Oromya=42.2%, Amhara= 18.7% Afar=6.7%, Addis
Ababa=20.3%, Dire Dawa=2.7%, Somali= 8.5% and SNNP =.9%). Out of the 14.9 million
population of the basin the share of Oromya, Amhara,and Addis Ababa cover more than 80%
and the rest Afar, Dire Dawa, Somali and SNNP cover less than 20% of population.

The number of industrial firms in Ethiopia has tripled in the past four decades. More than sixty
five percent of these industrial firms are located in the Awash basin mainly along the Addis
Ababa - Adama, Addis Ababa - Holeta and Adiss Ababa- Sebata , industrial development
corridor (Tecsult and PPESA, 2010). In addition, Dire Dawa and Kombolcha are among the main
industrial zones of the country which are also found in the basin.
 2.3. Institutional Arrangement

Awash River basin is the fourth largest catchment in Ethiopia by area. but the seventh in terms
of water resource. The river rises from the central highlands of Ethiopia above 3,000meters
near Ginchi and flows in a northeastern direction through the northern end of rift valley to
discharge in to the lake Abe near the Djibouti border a distance of 1250km from its source. Due
to strategic location, good access to facilities and availability of the land and water resources, it
is the most developed river basin in the country with respect to irrigation development.
Awash River basin and its tributaries are used for domestic, irrigation and industrial purposes.
The major industries are tannery, factory, fatting, raring, soft drink and food complex factories
using.

3. Objectives

The objective of the water use resource system modeling study is to balance the interests of users
with the development of the resource, while at the same time improving and preserving
environmental quality, to establish modern water use resource modeling control mechanism by
updating previous studies (if any) and undertaking Feasibility Study of the project alternative
studies which will be technically, environmentally and economically acceptable. Therefore, for
the implementation of this water use resource system modeling, either of the following feasible
options shall be taken into considerations.

 To assess current water use availability conditions, but suitable for modification
to represent potential future development condition
 Develop the living standard and soico- economic development of the people and users.
 Improving water supply and distribution for large number of the society.
 Enhancing the contribution of water use to different area coverage.
 Evaluate the river basin water quality for irrigation and for other purposes.

4. The project area

The study area is located in the awash river basin .it passes through five regional states ,afar,
oromia, amhara, Somalia, SNNP and Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa administrative council .
The total length of the Awash River basin is approximately 1250km. The basin contains two
lakes namely lake beseka and Gedebassa .currently, Lake beseka is highly saline which is
found a short distance from the basin and the diverts around some %(percent) of extent in to
the river .The basin has available of land suitable for agriculture ,water uses strategic location
for irrigation development system .The total population in Awash basin is estimated to be 14.9
based on population CSA in 2007 report. The basin covers a total area of 110,000km 2.
Fig.1. Map of the study area.
 5. Scope of the project
The scope of the project/study/ in the water use resource modeling system in the awash river
basin is standardized and in the acceptable system. The water use resource modeling system shall
be studied with the major components and including the review and refer the previous studies
concerning the controlling system and distribution of water users.
The study should be implemented and completed with a period of one (1) year. All the
activities should be reported quarterly in each three months .The study should be assess the short
and long term controlling measures and indicate the possible methods of water use resource
modeling. The study included the topography survey, socio economic components, land use land
cover, climate and hydrology, social and economic survey etc.. of the awash river basin.

6. Key tasks and Responsibilities

6.1. Demography

Currently Awash river Basin’s population is estimated. 14.9 million with the major populous
urban centers such as Addis Ababa, Adama, Dire Dawa, etc. are located. Therefore, assessing
population size, growth, density, distribution of the basin in relation to each study aspect is the
crucial task in order to take measures for effective water use management.
Then the consultant should study the following aspects:-
 Asses the population size of the basin in relation to the availability and allocation of
water resource.
 Evaluate the population growth of the basin and the current and future water resource
distributing system.
 Appraise the population density of the basin and their accessibility to water use and
develop map of this.
 Review the population distribution pattern of the basin in sub basin wise and the
potential sources of water.
 Compare and contrast the birth and death of population in relation to the water use.
6.2. Topography

Location: - The Awash Basin is situated b/n latitude 7 0 52’12" N to 120 08’24" N and longitude
370 56'24" E-430 17'24" E in Ethiopia. It covers a total land and area of 110,000km 2 of which
64,000km2 is in western catchment of the basin. This catchment drains to the awash main river
or its tributaries. The remaining 46,000km 2 most of which comprises the so-called Eastern
catchment drains in to a desert area and does not contribute to the awash main river course.
The Awash River rises at an elevation of about 3,000m in the central Ethiopia high lands, west
of Addis Ababa and flows north to east wards along the Rift valley in to the Afar Triangle where
it terminates in to Lake Abe at an elevation of 250m. The main river length is about 1,250km.

We will do the following activities and the consultant shall show us;

 Relief the map of the awash river basin.

 The topographic map of the area shall be prepared at a large and small scale.
 Longitudinal profile of the awash basin.
 Any other surveying activities which are necessary to fill the gaps for the feasibility and design
level

6.3. Land use and land cover

Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC); also known as land change is a general term for the
human modification of Earth's terrestrial surface. While doing the Land use and land cover
change of a basin, it is required to list four aspects of change detection which are important when
monitoring natural resources:

 Detecting the changes that have occurred

 Identifying the nature of the change
 Measuring the area extent of the change
 Assessing the spatial pattern of the change
Information regarding natural resources, the environment and on the changes they undergo is
essential to detect changes, predict as well as monitor the results and rational planning activities.
GIS and remote sensing is a young technology that play a pivotal role in providing information
regarding the spatial distribution of various land use classes over years. The information derived
from multi-temporal remotely sensed data on land cover change and its impacts can be identified
for regional management, economic development and environmental protection. Remote sensing
products are a key for using land use and land cover changes. Therefore, the consultant shall
help us the following activities.

 Prepare the high resolution satellite image (e.g. Land sat and spot images) and do geo-
reference using ground control points (GCPs), and enhance the image.
  Carryout the land use and land cover changes (land use classification) using a possible
high resolution satellite image at different intervals (group of years)
 Calculate and minimize errors to a possible small range during land use and land cover
classification
 Develop maps which helps to see the change

6.4. Socio-economy
The securing socio-economic of any society is the first and for most as well as direct and indirect
output of every aspect studies, research, project implementation and so on. That is why any work
should consider the socio-economic component in everyday tasks of given work. In the water use
resource modeling assessing the social and economic issues of the community in the basin is the
key point for implementing the allocation and distribution water use resources fairly and
equitably based on accessibility and availability of the resources. Therefore Awash Basin
Authority basically need to outsource the water use modeling task to the consultant group in
order to minimize the water use conflict that are directly connected to water use efficiency .
The consultant group should help us focus on the following issues
 Asses the communities’ social values related to water use such as religious
aspect, healing of some diseases etc.
 Search the impact of water use resource scarcity to the social life of the basin’s
society.
 Identify the attitude of different ethnic groups to water use in their daily activity.
 Evaluate the relationship between water use resource and economic activity of
each society.
 Recognize the major economic activities relationship with water use such as rain
fid agriculture, irrigation, livestock, industry etc.
Distinguish and sort the economic activities those required more water use resource in a given
seasons.
6.5. Climate and Hydrology
6.5.1. Climate

The moist equatorial western riles are responsible for seasonal rainfall distribution within the
basin as a result of annual migration of the ITC. The annual rainfall distribution resulting from
this cycle is exhibited most clearly in the two distinct rainy periods (Belg and Kiremt). The
western part of the basin has mono-modal rainfall characteristics with the peak rainfall in July-
August while the eastern part is dominated by bi-modal rainfall characterized by the Belg
(short) and Kiremt (long) rainfall peaks. The major peak is located in July-August and the minor
peak located in March-April months. The distribution of rainfall over the highland areas is
modified by or graphic effects and is significantly correlated with altitude. Spatially, annual
rainfall varies from less than 200 mm at Logiya towards the east to 1700 mm at Ginager in the
highlands around Addis Ababa.

Mean annual temperature varies from about 12oC to 29oC in northern high lands while in the
eastern lowland the mean annual temperature varies from 17 oC to more than 37oC. Mean
monthly temperature varies from about 12.5oC in July in the highlands to more than 33.7 oC in
June the lowlands. Like that of rainfall the spatial variability of temperature is the function of
elevation.

Generally, potential evapo-transpiration (PET) varies from 1,200 mm in the western and northern
highlands to more than 2,200 mm in the eastern lowlands of the basin. At the Upper Awash, the
mean annual PET is as much as twice the mean annual rainfall, with average monthly rainfall
exceeding average monthly PET only in July and August. At lower Awash, the mean annual PET
exceeds ten times the mean annual rainfall.

Even if the Awash basin has a dense meteoroid stations as compared to the other river basins of
Ethiopia, It constrains from uneven distribution and data management systems. To address the
problem the authority has decided to give the task for high quality standard consultants.
Therefore, the consultant should help us how to collect and analyze the following climate data
sets for a minimum of 50 to 100 years return period at daily, monthly, and annual basis.

 Relative humidity
 Sunshine hours
 Precipitation (Rainfall) data
 Maximum, minimum and average Temperature data
  Wind speed (vertical and horizontal wind speed)
 Calculate and compare using different potential evapo-transpiration estimation methods
(Penman-Montieth, Priestly Taylor, Hargreaves and Thornthwaite equations), eventually
select the best method by setting concrete comparison criteria’s such as selecting
parameters, using graphs and so on.
 Data gaps should be filled using different data filling methods at a possible minimum
error.
 If there are uneven distribution meteorological stations, it should be worked to make it an
even distribution of meteorological stations.
 Long term average and extreme climatic parameters particularly mean monthly, daily,
and annual temperature, rainfall and other climate parameters should be carefully
estimated.
 Carefully study the spatial and temporal climatic variability to identify the fluctuations of
climatic variables.

6.5.2. Hydrology

The Awash River rises on the high plateau to the West of Addis Ababa, at an altitude of about
3,000m flowing Eastwards, through the Becho Plains. It is then joined by several small
tributaries before entering Koka reservoir, created by a dam. At the large expanse of
catchments to the East of the river, accounting for some 40% of the total Basin area does not
contribute any surface runoff to the river and loses all runoff in to the vast expanse of desert
plains which stretches from the escarpment northwards to the terminal lakes. The western
catchment of the basin drains highly eroding runoff and contributes much to flood risks in the
lower awash valley after joining the main course of Awash. The main flood contributing
tributaries of Awash River are Mile, Logiya, Kesem and Kebena.

Hydrology is the science which deals, with terrestrial waters, their occurrence, circulation and
distribution, their physical and chemical properties and their interaction with the physical and
biological environment, including the effect of them of the activity of man. This study is a key
for the efficient and sustainable use of water in the Awash River basin. Therefore, the
consultant should help us to do the following activities.
 Previous studies, if any, conducted for Awash Basin water use modeling and any other
relevant documents will be thoroughly reviewed and the gaps and short comings shall be
clearly identified.
 All available hydrologic data (river discharge, river water level and so on) and other
relevant to the AwBA should be collected, reviewed and evaluated for completeness and
consistency.
 Data quality should be controlled using standard methods (i.e. double mass curve) and
all other data considered necessary and relevant for the hydrology component of the river
basin should be revised, updated and included for a detailed study.
 All catchment features, relevant to the analysis and simulation of hydrologic data should
be assessed.
 All data gaps should be filled using appropriate approaches, technologies, and standard
approaches, technologies, standard procedures and the data filling methodology, shall be
shown independently for each station.
 Flow extremes (peak and minimum flow) for both dry and wet seasons should be
carefully examined.
 The methodology and approach applied in the analysis of flow extremes (annual
maximum and low flow) should be reviewed whether the analysis was conducted in the
absence of data or presence of adequate data representing the Awash River basin.
 Data should be collected to fill data gap and update long term flow generation, annual
and monthly at the project site.
 Compute various frequencies of storms, probable maximum precipitation relevant to the
design of drainage works and other structures to resist peak floods.
 Propose additional hydrological and meteorological gauging stations, if required, and
specify the sites where they should be installed.
 Suitable recommendation with regard to flow measurement and other data to be collected
such as river gauging and flow measurements.
 Extension of existing flow data to determine long term average flow and hence assess the
yield at proposed development sites with and without storage.
 Appraisal of magnitude of floods of various frequencies and evaluate design of flood
hydrograph relevant for the design of the dam and flood protection works.
  The project design flood shall be determined either based on the available flow data or
using universally accepted methodologies.
 Flood estimation should be made for the Main River and main tributaries of the Awash
River basin.
 Cross-drainage design flood should be determined and conducting frequency analysis and
fixing the design flood with specified return period

6.6. Water Resource

Water is the principal resource that has been helped agriculture and society. Ethiopia has a
large number of rivers which flows at both sides of the rift valley. it covers most of the land
mass of the country. According to the previous study, the total water resource of the country is
estimated to be in order 112 billion cubic meters per year and the country has 12(twelve) main
river basins.

Set-up a water resources balance/simulation model to assess current resource availability, which
is suitable for modification to represent potential future development conditions; The total mean
annual runoff generated in the Awash Basin and reaching the mains tream of the Awash is
estimated at 4 527 Mm3. Much of this runoff is lost to evaporation and evapo-transpiration from
Koka Dam, Gedebassa Swamp and a number of natural lakes, or used for irrigation. As a result
the current mean annual runoff of the Awash River reaches a maximum of only 2 434 Mm 3 at
Dubti and a little less just upstream at the Tendaho Dam site

Consultants shall consider the following activities:

 make use of the GIS based applications analysis of water use usage in respect of
land use, agricultural production, power generation, environmental requirements;
 set-up a water use model which can form the basis for optimising usage;
 prepare a flood hydrology database for the Awash Basin providing flood flow
frequency versus magnitude data at key node locations throughout the basin;
 identify the need to improve facilities for monitoring and measuring of water
resources and flood flows within the catchment.
 Localised hydrological modelling of selected reaches where flood protection or
other works to plan.

6.7. GIS works

Many have characterized geographic information system (GIS) technology as one of the most
powerful of all information technologies because it focuses on integrating knowledge from
multiple sources and creates a crosscutting environment for collaboration. In addition, GIS is
attractive to most people who encounter it because it is both intuitive and cognitive. It
combines a powerful visualization environment with a strong analytic and modeling framework.
The consultant should carry out the following GIS activities

 Decide on the boundaries of the project area, define map and attribute data entry and
determine their outputs
 Prepare the new boundary of the Awash Basin at high accuracy
 Identify the GIS and geo-processing demands of the project
 Identify types and amount of data to be stored in the GIS
 Develop and establish an appropriate GIS database system for water use development
and feasibility design of the project area including a relational, interactive database,
cartographic information, topologies as points, lines and polygons and image data.
 Define additional tools required for the improvement of the system
 Prepare elevation, topographic, slope, aspect, contour and soil type maps
 Prepare and develop appropriate GIS data base system for water use modeling
compatible for any GIS applications especially Awash Basin Authority (AwBA).
 Define additional tools required for the improvement of the system.
 Prepare data base summary list for digital and analog data.
 Summarize the procedures of data collection, data storage and data processing,
present the results and submit guidelines.

7. Expected Outputs
8. Deliverables
9. Reporting Schedule
10. Qualifications
11. Project Organization and Management