MA FASHION MANAGEMENT AND

FASHION & TEXTILE MARKETING

Winchester School of Art  
Market  Trend  Analysis    
&  Fashion  Forecas5ng  
2013  
Molly  K  Mills  
 Guest  Lecture-­‐  Wed  6th  Nov  
Peclers  Paris,  AW2014/15  Trend  Presenta5on  
By  Lucy  Hailey  from  Holbrook  Studio’s  

www.holbrookstudio.com  
www.peclersparis.com  
 Fashion  Forecas5ng  
Planned  learning  outcomes:  
1.  At  the  end  of  this  session  you  should  be  able  to,  
2.  Explain  what  a  market  trend  is  and  how  to  find  the  latest  
market  trend  informa=on.  
3.  Research,  iden=fy  and  appropriately  match  market  trends  
to  an  individual  brands  needs.  Cri=cally  evalua=ng  how  
and  why  the  adop=on  of  this  trend  by  the  brand  might  
generate  a  compe==ve  advantage  for  the  brand.  
4.  Explain  what  fashion  forecas=ng  is  and  how  to  research  a  
fashion  trend.  
5.  Iden=fy  a  fashion  trend,  deduce  where  the  trend  has  
originated  from,  and  predict  what  the  life  cycle  of  the  
trend  is  likely  to  be.  
 What  is  a  Trend?  
 “At  its  most  basic,  a  trend  can  be  defined  as  
the  direc5on  in  which  something  (and  that  
something  can  be  anything)  tends  to  move  and  
which  has  a  consequen5al  impact  on  the  
culture,  society  or  business  sector  through  
which  it  moves.”  
 
Mar=n  Raymond,    
The  Trend  Forecaster’s  Handbook  
 What  Impacts  a  Trend?  
•  1.  World  Events  
•  2.  Fashion  Leaders  
•  3.  Social  Changes  
•  4.  Sub  Cultures  
•  5.  Economic  Condi5ons  
•  6.  Technological  innova5ons  
 
Work  with  the  person  si]ng  next  to  you  to  come  up  with    
1  example  for  each  of  these,  explain  and  discuss  
WHY,  WHO,  WHAT  or  HOW    
your  example  has  generated  a  trend.  You  may  be  asked  to  
present  your  example  to  the  class.  
 World  Events  

World  War  II  

h`p://www.solpass.org/7ss/Images/Rosie-­‐Riveter.jpg  
h`p://www3.ne.ca/fm455w/Collec5ons/Photos/WWII/Rubrique3_Le_front_interieur/Sec5on1_Les_femmes_et_la_guerre/3-­‐1-­‐4_e000760702.jpg  
 Fashion  Leaders  

Gabrielle  Chanel   Vivienne  Westwood  

h`p://the100.ru/images/womens/id911/420-­‐coco-­‐chanel-­‐2-­‐742931.jpg   h`p://www.nosweat.org.uk/files/vivienne-­‐westwood-­‐cd-­‐album-­‐news-­‐040908-­‐2.jpg  
 Social  Changes  
•  Yves  Saint  Laurent  –
AW1995  
•  Saint  Laurent  first  
introduced  elements  of  
the  masculine  suit  into  
womenswear  in  1966.  
•  Building  the  trend  
towards  the  Power  Suit  
in  the  1980’s  

Fashion:  Christopher  Breward:  p.  90:  Oxford  Press  

 Sub-­‐cultures  

Punk  Rock  started  in  mid  1970’s  

h`p://dark.pozadia.org/images/wallpapers/95775386/Punk/Punk%20Rockers.jpg  
 Economic  Condi5ons  

The  Recession  –  The  rise  of  Fast  Fashion  

 Technological  Innova5ons  

 
 
 Where  can  you  find  Market  Trends?  
•  Key  Note  
•  WGSN,  www.wgsn.com  
•  WARC,  www.warc.com  
•  Trendwatching,  www.trendwatching.com  
 What  is  the  difference  between  a  
market  trend  and  a  fashion  trend?  
1.  ?  
Fashion  Trend  Evolu5on  
 Fads  

1980’s  Puoall  Skirts   Croc’s   Jelly  Shoe’s  

 Fashion  

Skinny  Trousers  and  Jeans  

 Classics  

Trench  Coat   Duffle  Coat   Biker  Jacket    

SS12  Resort   AW11   AW11  
Burberry  Prorsum   Miharayasuhiro   Mathew  Williamson  
Consumer  Adop5on  Process  
Consumer  Adop5on  Process  
 The  making  and  marke5ng  of  a  trend  
 “For  lifestyle  as  a  concept  and  as  a  badge  of  social  office  has  
completely  reversed  the  flow  of  design  and  trend  predic5on  and  how  
these  things  are  done.  Once,  in  the  1950s,  it  came  from  Paris,  and  the  
twice  yearly  couture  shows  there,  and  trickled  down,  via  a  slow  process  of  
copying  and  adjus5ng  to  the  average  man  or  woman’s  wardrobe,  She  of  
Slough  and  He  of  Hanley  finally  ge]ng  to  wear  a  version  of  the  original  
look  long  auer  the  designers,  retailers,  manufacturers,  or  the  local  tailor  
or  seamstress  diluted  it  down  to  what  ever  was  deemed  acceptable  for  
the  class  or  social  category  they  were  selling  into.  Now  the  look,  key  ones  
at  least  start  on  the  street  and  work  their  way  up  and  are  copied,  adjusted  
or  cleansed  of  any  subversive  element  by  the  designer  or  manufacturer,  
who  makes  them  more  palatable  for  their  target  market  group.”  
 
Mar5n  Raymond,  
Ch.  15  The  making  and  marke=ng  of  a  trend  
Hines  T.  and  Bruce  M.  Fashion  Marke=ng:  Contemporary  Issues  (2nd  ed.)  
 
 Kate  Middleton  
Imitator  or  Elite  Status  Maker?  

h`p://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/royal-­‐wedding/8142366/Kate-­‐Middleton-­‐to-­‐con5nue-­‐working-­‐at-­‐
family-­‐partyware-­‐firm-­‐un5l-­‐Royal-­‐wedding.html  
 Lady  Gaga  -­‐  Elite  Status  Maker  

h`p://sta5c.nme.com/images/gallery/LadyGaga02PA071011.jpg  
Consumer  Adop5on  Process  
 Sub-­‐cultures  

Punk  Rock  started  in  mid  1970’s  

h`p://dark.pozadia.org/images/wallpapers/95775386/Punk/Punk%20Rockers.jpg  
 Lady  Gaga  -­‐  Elite  Status  Maker  

h`p://sta5c.nme.com/images/gallery/LadyGaga02PA071011.jpg  
Consumer  Adop5on  Process  
 Example  of  Popular  Mass  Media  
Influencing  Trend  

h`p://4.bp.blogspot.com/-­‐hDZqHUcrZBE/TrgJJ98-­‐zII/AAAAAAAABXg/OYeMwl9-­‐uT8/s640/DowntonAbbey.jpg  
 
h`p://www.topshop.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/CatalogNaviga5onSearchResultCmd?
catalogId=33057&storeId=12556&langId=-­‐1&viewAllFlag=false&sort_field=Relevance&categoryId=283999&parent_categoryId=208499&beginIndex=1&pag
eSize=20  
  h`p://1.bp.blogspot.com/-­‐57hbkfovIZg/TxTGCw-­‐ZxYI/AAAAAAAACHc/ih9yKRzA_E/s640/Downton+Abbey+12.jpg  
Consumer  Adop5on  Process  
Consumer  Adop5on  Process  
 Pendulum  Swings  Example  
1960’s  Mary  Quant  Mini  Dress   1970’s  Ossie  Clark  Maxi  Dress  

h`p://www.mookychick.co.uk/images/alterna5ve-­‐clothing/mary-­‐quant-­‐mini3.jpg   h`p://www.vam.ac.uk/users/sites/default/files/album_images/25277-­‐large.jpg  
Consumer  Adop5on  Process  
 Cultural  Trends  
 Long  and  Short  Term  Forecas5ng  
Faith  Popcorn  
•  Co-­‐founder  of  the  
marke5ng  consultancy  
BrainReserve  in  1974  
•  “It’s  our  business  to  
study  how  consumers  
are  feeling  today  and  
how  they’ll  be  feeling  
tomorrow”  

h`p://4.bp.blogspot.com/_3-­‐Upub-­‐I1Yw/TOGqwpG7vOI/AAAAAAAABho/8UbOMQZULD8/s1600/faith-­‐popcorn.jpg  
 
 Cultural  Trends  
 Long  and  Short  Term  Forecas5ng  
•  Brain  Reserve  Methodology  
1.  Constantly  scanning  around  350  magazines,  
trade  journals,  newspapers  
2.   Monitoring  the  top  television  shows,  first  run  
movies,  Broadway  plays,  best  selling  books,  and  
hit  music  
3.  Shopping  stores  at  home  and  abroad  for  new  
products  
4.  Interviewing  about  4000  consumers  each  year  
across  about  20  different  product  categories  
 Intui5on  
Li  Edelcourt  
•  “Consciously  and  
unconsciously,  you  are  
collec5ng  things,  banking  
them.  Then,  as  enough  of  
these  fragments  take  root,  
pa`erns  begin  to  form  –  
signals  are  sent  to  the  brain  
that  alert  you  to  other  ideas  
and  words  that  seem  to  
push  you  towards  a  bigger  
picture  –  then  there  is  a  
flash,  and  you  can  see  what  
the  new  trend  is”  

h`p://sta5c.dezeen.com/uploads/2008/06/li-­‐edelkoort.jpg  
 
What  can  you  do  &  How  can  you  do  it?  
Become  culturally  aware  
1.  Read,  magazines,  trade  journals,  newspapers,  
and  best  selling  books  
2.  Watch,  and  listen  to  the  popular  television  
shows,  movies,  theatre,  best  selling  books,  and  
hit  music  
3.  Shopping  observe  and  record  take  pictures  
4.  Observe,  interview,  talk  to,  engage  with  those  
around  you  
5.  Keep  a  journal  /  scrapbook  
From  Trend  to  Product  
From  Trend  to  Product  
From  Trend  to  Product  
MARC  BY  MARC  JACOBS-­‐AW2010CATWALKS   From  Trend  to  Product  
From  Trend  to  Product  
 From  Trend  to  Product  
Exhibitions, Museums, History, Films, Radio, Music,
Theatre
 From  Trend  to  Product  
Shopping Research - Boutiques, Competitors, Vintage,
Street Style
From  Trend  to  Product  

www.thesartorialist.com  
From  Trend  to  Product  

www.stylebubble.co.uk  
From  Trend  to  Product  

www.coolhun5ng.com  
 Recommended  Reading  
Fashion  ForecasEng,  Third  EdiEon:  Brannon,  E.  L.  (2010)  
•  Fairchild   Books  
•  Fashion  MarkeEng  -­‐  Contemporary  Issues,  Second  EdiEon:  
Hines,  T.  &  Bruce,  M.  (2007)  Bu`erworth  Heinemann  
•  Fashion  Trends  –  Analysis  and  ForecasEng:  Kim,  E.  &  Fiore,  A.  
M.  Kim,  H.  (2011)  Berg  Publishers  
•  The  Long  Tail:  Anderson,  C.  (2009)  Random  House  Business  
Books  
•  The  Tipping  Point:  Gladwell,  M.  (2001)  Abacus  
•  The  Trend  Forecaster’s  Handbook:  Raymond,  M  (2010)  
Laurence  King  Publishing  Ltd  
 Market  Trend  &  Fashion  Forecas5ng    
Seminar  Brief    
Wed  6th  /  Thurs  7th  November  
•  Each  of  you  individually  needs  to  collect  key  fashion  trends  and  
influences  that  you  think  could  be  of  relevance  to  your  brand.  
•  This  informa5on  should  be  sourced  from  following  places,  
1.  Market  trend  influences  you  may  use  Keynote,  WARC,  
Trendwatching  to  explore  these.  
2.  Fashion  Trend  Influences  from  sources  like  WGSN    
3.  Newspapers,  Magazines,  blogs,  (Both)  
4.  Catwalk  reports  and  images  
5.  Relevant  shopping  and  street  photo’s  
6.  You  may  also  find  it  useful  to  use  the  DAAI  to  look  at  previous  
publica5ons  of  direc5onal  magazines  like  for  example  Bloom  

•  We  will  be  exploring  what  you  have  found  in  this  weeks  seminar  
session,  and  you  will  be  asked  as  a  team  to  evaluate  why  and  how  
pursing  this  trend  might  give  you  a  compe55ve  advantage