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Wallstreetjournaleurope 20160309 The Wall Street Journal Europe
Wallstreetjournaleurope 20160309 The Wall Street Journal Europe
Wallstreetjournaleurope 20160309 The Wall Street Journal Europe
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ain leaving the EU poses the vor of leaving could cause a membership affects their abil-
biggest domestic risk to the LONDON—The Bank of Eng- short-term hit to the wider ity to meet the central bank’s
U.K. financial system. A1 land waded into the highly economy. twin goals of maintaining sta-
The scope of airstrikes charged debate on the nation’s A possible departure repre- ble inflation and safeguarding
on an al-Shabaab camp in membership in the European sents “the biggest domestic financial stability. However,
Somalia underscores Union, saying the possibility risk to financial stability,” Mr. that hasn’t stopped advocates
mounting U.S. concerns that Britain chooses to leave Carney said, with potential of an EU exit from criticizing
over the jihadist group. A3 the bloc represents the biggest consequences for Britain’s bal- the central bank for overstep-
domestic risk to the stability ance of payments with the rest ping the mark.
Biden arrived in Israel of the U.K. financial system. of the world, its housing mar- There were at-times heated
amid U.S.-Israeli tension In wide-ranging testimony ket, foreign investment and its exchanges during the almost-
after the cancellation of a to lawmakers on the U.K.’s banks. three-hour-long testimony,
planned trip to Washing- economic relationship with the Like many other central with some so-called euroskep-
ton by Netanyahu. A3 EU, BOE Gov. Mark Carney bankers, BOE officials take tic lawmakers on the panel ac-
Clinton’s national lead POWERED-UP CASE: The U.S. is expanding its probe of the said Tuesday that uncertainty pains to avoid being dragged cusing the central banker of
over Sanders narrowed German car maker over emissions cheating, using a far-reaching surrounding the outcome of into the political fray. Please see CARNEY page A2
slightly to nine points law against bank fraud and eyeing possible tax-law violations. B1 the coming referendum on Officials carefully have
among Democratic primary Britain’s future in Europe is sought to frame their com- ECB faces a difficult
voters, a new poll found. A7 being felt in financial markets ments on the referendum as a balancing act.............................. A4
The U.S. urged Saudi
WORLD NEWS
T
o be sure, the overall
environment has
changed dramatically
since Mr. Zhu ran the econ-
omy with an iron hand. The
CHINA’S WORLD state enterprises he went af-
ANDREW BROWNE ter in those days were small,
scattered and financially
weak. By contrast, the cur-
SHANGHAI—A year ago, rent crop have bulked up on
Premier Li Keqiang set out bank loans, and acquired new
the case for difficult indus- political muscle, making
trial overhauls. “This is not them much harder to cull.
nail-clipping,” he warned, As the global economic
“it’s like taking a knife to outlook darkens, the tempta-
one’s own flesh.” tion among politicians every-
The comments recalled where is to kick the can
his fearsome predecessor down the road.
Zhu Rongji who eliminated Still, the fact that China’s
30 million jobs practically in leaders have joined the pro-
one go in a cleanup of state crastinators reveals new in-
enterprises in the late 1990s. securities, which may undo
But Mr. Li the regime in the long run. A
has yet to large body of Western aca-
follow demic writing suggests that
through. The when the entire rationale for
problems he authoritarian systems turns
LI XUREN/XINHUA/ZUMA PRESS
was grap- to maintaining power, rather
pling with than facilitating change, the
back then have all gotten game is over.
much worse—colossal indus- David Shambaugh, a pro-
trial overcapacity, soaring fessor of political science at
corporate debt, plunging George Washington Univer-
profits, declining factory sity, is among those who see
prices. His reluctance to this playing out in China. In
draw blood underscores a Premier Li Keqiang at the National People’s Congress in Beijing. China’s leaders are under pressure to step up economic overhauls. his new book “China’s Fu-
critical change that has come ture,” Mr. Shambaugh writes
over a Chinese leadership avoid social instability that cal goal—to double gross do- ernment has abandoned all two million, a big number in that the Chinese administra-
that once had a reputation could in any way threaten mestic product by 2020 com- pretense of corporate “de- absolute terms but only a tion is in a state of “atrophy
for pursuing economic goals the party’s hold on power. If pared with 2010 to give the leveraging”—reducing debt— fraction of the country’s vast and ossification” as a result
with ruthless pragmatism. that means delaying unpopu- nation reason to celebrate on that must come one day. workforce. And while the of- of its unwillingness to toler-
Today, politics trump eco- lar economic adjustments, so the centenary of the Commu- ficial target to cut steel ca- ate political change. If it
U
nomics. be it. nist Party’s founding in 1921. sing delicate language, pacity by up to 150 million maintains its current course,
Both high-level economic That’s the way to read Yet it can only be Mr. Li suggested in his tons may sound dramatic, it he writes, “I predict that
policy making and its practi- Mr. Li’s report to the annual achieved by unleashing new report that corporate will still leave idle capacity economic development will
cal implementation, once the meeting of the National Peo- gushers of credit that gave deadbeats should be handled of some 200 million tons— stagnate and even stall, ex-
preserve of the State Council ple’s Congress, which opened rise to the recurrence of a “proactively yet prudently.” more than double America’s acerbating already acute so-
headed by the premier, have last weekend, calling for am- problem that former Premier He said measures should total annual production. cial problems, and producing
increasingly fallen into the bitious growth over the next Zhu seemed to have slain include mergers, reorganiza- Under Mr. Xi, “the objec- the protracted political de-
hands of Communist Party five years of between 6.5% once and for all: debt-laden tions, debt restructuring and tive of economics no longer cline of the [party].”
committees led by President and 7%. In setting that num- industrial “zombies,” many bankruptcy—in that order, has absolute priority in the For now, a gulf is opening
Xi Jinping. ber, the administration in- of them in the state sector, precisely to avoid as much economic policy-making pro- between the desire of Chi-
The choices they make tended above all to send a that threaten China with fi- discomfort as possible. cess,” writes Chen Ling, an nese leaders to avoid painful
are shaped by Mr. Xi’s politi- message of government con- nancial insolvency and global Mr. Li gave no figures for associate professor at Tsin- choices, and the expectations
cal preoccupations: to fidence, thereby bolstering markets with chronic insta- projected job losses but num- ghua University’s School of of foreign investors who are
strengthen the party, primar- public support for the ad- bility. bers put forward so far in Public Policy and Manage- looking for evidence of
ily through an anticorruption ministration. Relatively rapid economic the steel and coal industries, ment, in a recent study on change that really hurts. So
campaign; to root out chal- The number itself derives growth is at odds with indus- the two areas worst affected the Chinese economy issued far we’re seeing nail scis-
lenges to the regime; and to from a long-standing politi- trial restructuring. The gov- by overcapacity, run to about by the Center for Strategic sors, not a scalpel.
WORLD NEWS
Somali Strike Reflects Militants’ Threat
Al-Shabaab’s widening killed a few fighters but not as “It is a concern because the were behind enemy lines, in
many as 150. “The air bom- last three times they did areas that were supposed to
attacks drive large- bardment occurred, but we something similar to this, they be liberated areas.”
scale U.S. air assault strongly reject that number had an ability to conduct a The attacks have raised
claimed, that 150 were killed. devastating attack on [African concerns that the countries
against training camp There are a few of our fighters Union Mission to Somalia] that contribute troops to the
who died during the attack.” forces,” he said. African Union force in Soma-
BY HEIDI VOGT Local Somali officials, how- Al-Shabaab has in- lia—Uganda, Burundi, Djibouti,
ever, said they believe about creased the scale of its strikes Kenya and Ethiopia—might
NAIROBI, Kenya—The scope 200 insurgents were killed. against beleaguered African start to waver.
of U.S. airstrikes that de- “We have confirmed that Union forces over the past The Somali government
stroyed an al-Shabaab training about 200 newly trained fight- year and launched a failed at- welcomed the U.S. assault,
camp underscore Washington’s ers were inside the facility and tempt to bring down a pas- stressing it was executed in
mounting concerns over the all were killed. We have also senger jet in February. collaboration with Somali
resilience of a jihadist group confirmed the death of five Neighboring countries have forces. It was a rare victory
increasingly attacking the So- top commanders of al-Sha- increased security at borders for the government.
mali government and neigh- baab,” said Abdiasis Durow, and airports amid mounting “It’s best when we take the
REUTERS
boring states. commissioner of nearby Bu- concerns that al-Shabaab will war to their turf instead of
The Pentagon said the war- loburte district. He didn’t pro- imminently launch new at- waiting for them to attack,”
planes and drones used vide names of the command- tacks outside Somali borders. Al-Shabaab attacked a hotel in the capital Mogadishu in July. said Abdisalam Aato, a Somali
in Saturday’s airstrike killed ers. He said smoke continued The size and location of the government spokesman.
more than 150 al-Shabaab to rise from the bombed area training camp showcased the strikes against leaders. “This capital—in September killed But analysts said the need
fighters gathered at a training for more than a day after the group’s strength in Somali’s could be a way of saying, some 50 Ugandan troops. In to resort to the U.S. airstrike
base ahead of a planned attack attack. rural areas, allowing the insur- ‘We’ve got your back. We’re January, al-Shabaab fighters also shows the ways that Afri-
against U.S. and African Union Gen. David Rodriguez, head gent group to mass large num- going to work to minimize the overran a Kenyan base near can Union and Somali troops
forces inside Somalia. It was a of U.S. forces in Africa, told bers of forces needed to over- casualties.’ ” the Kenyan border, killing have failed to gain the upper
surprisingly large-scale attack members of the Senate Armed run a military base. Over the past year, al-Sha- at least 180 troops, the Somali hand against al-Shabaab.
for the U.S. military in Soma- Services Committee on Tues- “This attack changes every- baab launched deadly assaults government said. Kenyan au- Matt Bryden, director of Sa-
lia, which has previously fo- day that the U.S. has seen a thing. Now they’re going after on three African Union bases. thorities have yet to release han Research, a think tank in
cused on targeted “tactical upswing” in al-Sha- rank and file—freshly trained An attack in June near Lego— official numbers. Kenya, said that “al-Shabaab’s
strikes against specific leaders baab activities in Somalia and young recruits,” said Ken Men- about 60 miles northwest of “They were allowed to greatest strength is the weak-
of the Islamist group. that the group conducts “al- khaus, a Somalia expert at Da- Mogadishu—killed more than flourish in [the] countryside,” ness of its adversaries.”
An al-Shabaab spokesman, most daily lethal asymmetric vidson College in North Caro- 70 Burundian soldiers. said Stig Hansen, a Norwegian —Felicia Schwartz
Abdiasis Abu Musab, attacks” against African Union lina, adding that previous U.S. An attack in Janale dis- academic who studies al-Sha- in Washington
said Saturday’s airstrikes troops there. attacks had been surgical trict—to the southeast of the baab. “Some of these attacks contributed to this article.
at least 10 people and killing Iran’s “deterrent power” and reactor at Arak, near Tehran,
one American tourist, who “all-out readiness to counter so that it is unable produce
wasn’t immediately identified any threat,” the official Is- nuclear material that could be
by Israeli police. lamic Republic News Agency weaponized.
Two of the alleged attack- reported. They were carried In exchange, Iran got relief
ers were shot dead by police out by the Islamic Revolution- from international sanctions
at the scene, while the victim ary Guard Corps, a powerful that have crippled its econ-
in the attack in the Tel Aviv military force charged with omy. Those annulled included
suburb killed his alleged as- safeguarding the country’s Is- United Nations Security Coun-
sailant in a struggle, police lamic system. cil resolutions banning missile
said. The surface-to-surface mis- President Hassan Rouhani, left, attended a meeting of the Assembly of Experts in Tehran on Tuesday. development.
Since September, Palestin- siles were fired from silos in But a Security Council reso-
ian assailants have killed more central Iran and hit targets tional nuclear agreement with The U.S. sees the program Israeli-Palestinian conflict in lution endorsing the nuclear
than 30 Israeli civilians and 435 miles away, the semioffi- Iran, known as the Joint Com- as a potential threat to Israel, the final year of Barack deal called upon Iran not to
soldiers in more than 300 at- cial Fars news agency re- prehensive Plan of Action, or a key Middle East ally and Obama’s presidency. undertake any development of
tacks, according to Israel’s for- ported. JCPOA. longtime Iranian foe, and to Iranian officials have said missiles capable of delivering
eign ministry. More than 150 These were the first tests “To be very clear, such tests Persian Gulf allies that lie its recent tests don’t violate nuclear weapons for eight
Palestinians, mostly alleged since the U.S. Treasury im- are not a violation of the within striking distance of lon- international accords, and that years. It wasn’t clear whether
attackers, have also been posed sanctions in January on JCPOA,” the official said. ger-range missiles, including the weapons are merely for the missiles tested on Tuesday
killed by Israeli security 11 Iranian entities with alleged “That said, there are strong Saudi Arabia and the United defense. President Hassan were designed to carry nuclear
forces, according to Palestin- links to Tehran’s ballistic mis- indications that the test is in- Arab Emirates. The U.S. is also Rouhani ordered the missiles’ warheads.
ian officials. sile program, citing the “sig- consistent with U.N. Security concerned with safeguarding development to be expedited Iran is pushing forward
The Obama administration nificant threat” the weapons Council Resolution 2231. If military assets of its own in in December, amid the pros- with the tests despite a shift
is considering one last push to posed to regional and global confirmed, we intend to raise the region, including a naval pect of new U.S. sanctions. in domestic politics toward
revive the peace process be- security. Iran last tested its the matter in the U.N. Security base in Bahrain. Iran’s historic nuclear deal moderates like Mr. Rouhani,
fore the president leaves office missiles in October and No- Council. We will also encour- The test came as U.S. Vice with six world powers includ- who favor a policy of engage-
in January. However, the vice vember. age a serious review of the in- President Joe Biden arrived in ing the U.S. took effect in Jan- ment with the world based on
president isn’t expected to A senior Obama administra- cident and press for an appro- Israel before meeting with Is- uary, ending more than a de- mutual respect. Mr. Rouhani’s
launch any major initiatives tion official in Washington priate response.” raeli Prime Minister Benjamin cade of escalating pressure allies made significant gains in
while in Israel. said the missile tests were in- The official said the U.S. Netanyahu on Wednesday. from Western powers over February elections for the
Mr. Biden is scheduled to consistent with a United Na- would continue to work with U.S.-Israeli relations have Tehran’s disputed nuclear pro- 290-member parliament and
meet with Mr. Netanyahu on tions Security Council resolu- other countries as well as “to come under strain in recent gram. the 88-member Assembly of
Wednesday. He will also meet tion restricting Iran’s missile aggressively apply” U.S. sanc- years, but Mr. Biden’s visit Western countries long sus- Experts, a clerical body.
with Palestinian Authority activity, but didn’t represent a tions against Iran to enforce could be a part of an attempt pected that Iran sought to de- —Carol E. Lee in Washington
President Mahmoud Abbas. breach of last year’s interna- the prohibitions. to revive talks to resolve the velop nuclear weapons with contributed to this article.
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A4 | Wednesday, March 9, 2016 HK JP KO ML SI IN UK FR MN PR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
WORLD NEWS
the persistence of very high talks in Brussels on Monday head of the Green party, issued more frequent presence, Gen.
levels of indebtedness, be it night, German Chancellor An- a similar warning for different Lori Robinson said, much as U.S.
public, private or external; vul- gela Merkel announced she reasons. Marines have done in the coun-
nerabilities in the financial was finally on the verge of a “Turkey is using the crip- try’s vast northern tropics.
sector and deteriorating com- breakthrough deal with Turkey pling disunion in the EU to Russia has eased back on
petitiveness,” said Valdis Dom- to stop the flow of migrants to achieve as high a price as pos- long-range air patrols near Euro-
brovskis, the commission’s vice Europe. sible for its role as a door- pean nations, but its reconnais-
president in charge of the euro. But the reaction at home man,” said Mr. Özdemir, whose sance aircraft are now appearing
The commission said in its the morning after was a cool party has largely supported more frequently over Asia, Gen.
report that France’s imbal- one. We’ll believe it when we Ms. Merkel in the migrant cri- Robinson said. The Russian navy
ances, stemming from its large see it, friends and foes said. sis. “I warn against closing our has also been expanding its re-
public debt and deteriorated “This is a very important eyes to the human-rights situ- gional presence. —Rob Taylor
ability to compete at a global interim step toward a solu- ation in Turkey.”
level, bear risks for the coun- tion,” Volker Kauder, the Ms. Merkel arriving for a news conference Tuesday in Brussels. Ms. Merkel’s center-right GERMANY
try’s economy and could have leader of Ms. Merkel’s conser- Christian Democrats have long
cross-border implications. vatives in parliament, said on sharply reduce the number of cross the Aegean Sea’s narrow been skeptical of a closer rela-
Industrial Production
Italy is also at risk due to breakfast television Tuesday. people arriving in Germany straits to Greece. Ms. Merkel tionship with Turkey over the Jumped in January
its high debt levels and weak “All this will still be difficult.” and applying for asylum. As spent six hours negotiating course of the EU’s long-run- German industry fired on all
competitiveness as well as The skeptical response in the chancellor took a welcom- with Turkish Prime Minister ning accession talks with An- cylinders in January, raising
slow progress in dealing with Germany to Ms. Merkel’s hard- ing stance, roughly a million Ahmet Davutoglu in Brussels kara. That resistance boiled to hopes of better-than-expected
the high level of bad loans fought if tentative deal showed such migrants from the Middle on Sunday ahead of Monday’s the surface on Tuesday among growth in Europe’s biggest econ-
that have clogged banks’ bal- the European Union’s most East and elsewhere came last crisis meeting of EU leaders. some of her conservative al- omy this quarter despite flag-
ance sheets, the report said. powerful leader on the defen- year. The initial wave of Ger- But the reliance on Turkey lies, even as others voiced op- ging business confidence and
Greece and Cyprus weren’t sive days ahead of important man solidarity flagged in the is causing new domestic prob- timism that the chancellor was the uncertain global economic
included in the reviews because state elections. The votes on face of growing fears that the lems for Ms. Merkel just as the making progress. outlook.
their economies are monitored Sunday in three German states migrant influx would change state elections loom. Critics on Polls show that all three of Industrial production rose
by separate bailout programs. are being widely seen as refer- the country for the worse. the left say the chancellor is Sunday’s state elections could 3.3% in January from the preced-
While the commission endums on Ms. Merkel’s mi- Ms. Merkel has tried her turning a blind eye to human- bring bad news for Ms. Merkel. ing month, while output in-
didn’t put Germany in the “ex- gration policy, with analysts critics’ patience by refusing to rights abuses there, while poli- In the eastern German state of creased 2.2% from January 2015,
cessive” category, it did say saying Ms. Merkel may be de- close the German border to ticians on the right fear her Saxony-Anhalt, the Alternative adjusted for calendar effects, the
the country would be subject livering too little, too late, to migrants, insisting that doing readiness to allow visa-free for Germany is polling close to Economy Ministry said on Tues-
to monitoring due to its imbal- prevent an electoral defeat for so would destroy Europe’s sys- travel for Turkish citizens will 20%—a remarkable rise for a day.
ances, particularly its large her party. tem of passport-free travel and only lead to a new influx. party founded just three years The surge in output, which
current-account surplus. “She can keep trying to pull seamless cross-border trade “Ms. Merkel sees this as a ago. In the western German took many economists by sur-
In a news conference ear- rabbits or doves out of a hat,” that she says has secured Ger- breakthrough—we don’t,” said states of Baden-Württemberg prise, was the sharpest monthly
lier Tuesday, German Finance said Gero Neugebauer, a Berlin many’s success. Frauke Petry, head of the anti- and Rhineland-Palatinate, con- increase in German industrial ac-
Minister Wolfgang Schäuble political scientist. “But she Instead, she has insisted immigrant Alternative for Ger- servative voters defecting to tivity since September 2009 and
said his country was already ad- doesn’t have many hats left.” that Europe has no choice but many party, which is poised that anti-immigrant party the highest production volume
dressing some of the concerns. After a decade in power, to work with Turkey, the mi- for dramatic gains in Sunday’s could cause Ms. Merkel’s since records began in January
—Gabriele Steinhauser Ms. Merkel has staked her po- grants’ main relay point, to votes. “Yet again we are pre- Christian Democrats to lose to 1991, according to the federal
contributed to this article. litical future on a promise to stop people from trying to pared to make ourselves de- left-of-center challengers. statistics office. —Nina Adam
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THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. Wednesday, March 9, 2016 | A5
WORLD NEWS
BrazilCEOConvictedinPetrobrasScandal
Marcelo Odebrecht is prison terms meted out to he was involved in the bid-rig-
other executives and political ging-and-bribery scheme. The
sentenced to 19 years figures in the scandal, marks a Odebrecht company figures
for role in vast shift within Brazil’s justice prominently in the probe.
system. In the past, members Prosecutors suspect that
corruption scheme of the elite frequently evaded Mr. da Silva benefited from ex-
conviction and escaped pun- tensive renovations made by
SÃO PAULO—A Brazilian ishment. Odebrecht to a country ranch
judge on Tuesday sentenced Nabor Bulhões, Mr. Ode- used by the former president
Marcelo Odebrecht, the former brecht’s attorney, called the and his family.
chief executive officer of sentence “unfair and unjust” Prosecutors allege that Mr.
South America’s biggest con- and said the defense team da Silva helped organize an
would appeal to higher courts. elaborate scheme to divert
YANGON, Myanmar—Myan-
Tested as Growth Lags
mar’s parliament will nomi- BY MITSURU OBE yen, which is seen by many as
nate the country’s new presi- a haven asset during turbulent
dent Thursday, but the process TOKYO—Japan’s economy is times.
is testing the delicate relation- struggling to return to growth, Tokyo stocks, the sharp rise
ship between the still-power- adding pressure on Prime Min- of which was touted as an
ful military and the democracy ister Shinzo Abe’s government achievement of Abenomics,
movement led by Aung San as an election approaches. have tumbled. The Bank of
Suu Kyi, whose party domi- The risk of another reces- Japan stepped in to introduce
nates the legislature. sion is likely to strengthen negative interest rates in late
Ms. Suu Kyi is constitution- calls for new, stronger fiscal January, but the move had
ally barred from being a can- stimulus. In recent weeks mul- limited impact on markets
HEIN HTET/EUROPEAN PRESSPHOTO AGENCY
didate. But her National tiple advisers to Mr. Abe have while generating criticism
League for Democracy is ex- called for a government spend- among banks and consumers.
pected to use its overwhelm- ing package to shore up weak All of these developments
ing legislative majority to in- domestic demand, and another have also hurt already weak
stall a candidate from its delay in the sales-tax increase consumer confidence, which
ranks who is likely to have lit- set to take effect next year. fell sharply in February to the
tle of Ms. Suu Kyi’s stature More gloomy economic data lowest level since January last
and whom she has already would complicate Mr. Abe’s year, according to government
stated she will control from political calculations. Though data released Tuesday.
behind the scenes. his support is holding up, Private consumption and
The new president will be opinion surveys also indicate exports remain weak, and
the first to lead a democrati- Lawmakers from the National League for Democracy, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, met on March 1. the public is starting to lose there is little reason to expect
cally elected government confidence in his economic Japan’s economy to stage a
whose leaders are untainted Tin Oo, a former co-leader of nence in the democracy move- The upper and lower program, just months before meaningful rebound during the
by military links since the the party and onetime general, ment in 1988, when Myan- houses of parliament and the an election that may prove first quarter, said Izumi Deva-
armed forces seized power in who is almost 90 and frail. mar’s military crushed street military bloc can each nomi- critical to his goal of revising lier, economist at HSBC.
1962. The new government fol- Speculation has also turned protests in a bloody crack- nate a vice president. The the nation’s constitution. “Right now we are seeing a
lows a nominally civilian tran- to Ms. Suu Kyi’s personal phy- down. She was awarded the three groups then vote on Japan’s gross domestic period of [market] stability.
sition regime of former gener- sician, Tin Myo Win, or her Nobel Peace Prize in 1991. which candidate will be ele- product has contracted in two But this is a very fragile equi-
als who ruled from 2011 but personal secretary and closest The head of state will be vated to president. The NLD’s of the past four quarters, librium,” said Ms. Devalier.
were defeated in November confidant, Tin Mar Aung. Mr. chosen under a constitution choice is assured passage, shrinking at an annual rate of Further weak growth could
elections won by the NLD. Tin Oo has previously insisted imposed when the military given the party controls both 1.1% during the fourth quarter make it more difficult for Mr.
The NLD hasn’t said who it that Ms. Suu Kyi must be pres- was in power. It states that no houses. Both the losing candi- of the last calendar year, ac- Abe to achieve his political
will offer up as a candidate, ident. None of the others has one with close foreign rela- dates will be vice presidents. cording to revised data re- goals. He is looking for a
and party leaders have offered commented. tives can be president; Ms. The NLD’s second nominee leased Tuesday. The revised strong showing in an upper
only vague clues. Win Htein, a “In general, it is not that Suu Kyi’s two sons are British, is likely to be an ethnic-minor- GDP figure marked a slight im- house election this summer to
central executive committee important who the president as was her late husband. The ity candidate from an affili- provement from the prelimi- pave the way for his goal of
member, has said that Ms. Suu is, as long as it is the right constitution reserves one- ated ethnic-based party, ac- nary number, but BNP Paribas amending the U.S.-written con-
Kyi “cannot be president” and kind of person—someone who quarter of seats in parliament cording to party officials. It is said in a note Tuesday there stitution to loosen restrictions
has suggested only that the follows instructions from for serving military officers— unclear who the military bloc’s are no signs that the main cul- on the country’s military, an
candidate’s name will have Aung San Suu Kyi,” said Rich- enough to block any amend- candidate will be. prit behind the contraction— initiative that requires a two-
two words. ard Horsey, a Yangon-based ments, which need more than The candidates’ names will weak household spending—has thirds majority in both cham-
A name that has been analyst. “But if it is someone 75% support. be put forward Thursday, but improved. bers of parliament.
floated is Htin Kyaw, an Ox- who ruffles the feathers of the NLD officials had briefly it is unclear how long the pro- Global conditions have also Mr. Abe’s Liberal Demo-
ford graduate, senior party military or develops ideas dif- sought support to suspend the cess will take to finalize. The taken a toll. Market turmoil cratic Party and its coalition
member and son-in-law of ferent from hers, then it mat- constitutional prohibition, new president will pick a cabi- and fears of a China-sparked partner Komeito already have
NLD co-founder U Lwin. An- ters a lot.” rather than amend it, but the net, and officially take over global slowdown have hit ex- such a majority in the lower
other potential candidate is Ms. Suu Kyi rose to promi- armed forces refused. the government on April 1. ports and strengthened the house.
TASER Baltimore.”
Taser’s Mr. Isner said even
EMILY BERL FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL (2); ALBUQUERQUE POLICE DEPARTMENT/ASSOCIATED PRESS (VIDEO STILL)
where no-bid contracts were
awarded, Taser cameras were
Continued from Page One often first pitted against com-
she didn’t do anything im- petitors’. “We’re happy to
proper. Taser, which cut ties compete and we believe the
with the firm, said it hadn’t product’s merits prove itself,”
known the consultant was a he said.
campaign manager.
For U.S. police departments,
body cameras have become the Rankled rivals
tool of choice in responding to Fast-tracked city deals have
demands for stronger oversight rankled Taser’s rivals, who say
of officers. Police typically wear in some cases they could have
the small video cameras on offered comparable products
their uniforms to record ar- at lower costs.
rests, traffic stops and other in- Washington, D.C., which ap-
teractions with the public. proved a no-bid contract with
Law-enforcement officials Taser late last year, said it
and civil-rights activists alike also tested products from
believe cameras will prompt Vievu and Wolfcom.
better relations between po- Wolfcom chief executive
lice and citizens. The Justice Tiffany Wang said the capital’s
Department has awarded police department didn’t per-
about $20 million to help po- form training and didn’t in-
lice buy them. stall software necessary to up-
Taser, of Scottsdale, Ariz., load video from the cameras.
has an early lead in the mar- “We were very perplexed,” she
ket, and since the 2014 Fergu- said. Vievu said Washington
son shooting, demand has police bought equipment and
soared. Of the 50 largest local scheduled training for a field
U.S. police departments, 24 test but canceled the sessions.
have chosen a body-camera Cities are rushing to outfit officers with body cameras like the Taser model on Los Angeles police Sgt. Rich Joaquin’s belt at a shooting The police department said
vendor, with 22 picking Taser, scene last month, where officer Pavel Gomez wore one on his tactical vest, below. Helmet and body cameras captured details, bottom, an evaluation team “tested the
according to a Wall Street of the 2014 fatal shooting of James Boyd by Albuquerque officers, two of whom face murder charges and have pleaded not guilty. other cameras as well,” but
Journal count. Two cities chose not to conduct a wide-
chose cameras from Vievu, a spread test with other vendors
unit of Safariland Group. Camera Ready because officials concluded
Jim Bueermann, a retired Most of America's largest local police departments have chosen Taser had the only adequate
police chief of Redlands, Calif., body-camera systems or are considering them, with many leaning solution for annotating video
and president of the Police toward Taser. in the field and for cloud-
Foundation, a research organi- based storage.
zation, said police chiefs are City Number of sworn officers New Mexico’s attorney gen-
comfortable buying Taser’s New York 34,454 eral is investigating former Al-
cameras because of their expe- Chicago 12,042 buquerque Police Chief Ray
rience with its stun guns. Cities Los Angeles 9,920 Schultz and the city’s Taser
are “just trying to save time Philadelphia 6,515 body-camera contract. The
Houston 5,295
and money through the pro- state auditor found Mr.
Washington, D.C. 3,865
cess,” he said. Schultz took a consulting job
Dallas 3,478 Body camera
Taser’s camera strategy Phoenix 2,952 with Taser while chief and
Tested/testing
takes the cellphone-carrier Baltimore 2,949 cameras
helped secure a roughly $2
business model. It uses hard- Miami-Dade 2,745 million no-bid city contract
Taser chosen
ware to sell subscriptions to Las Vegas 2,743 with Taser in 2013. The move
Vievu chosen
Evidence.com, its service for Detroit 2,526 No cameras came after a rash of police
storing and sharing body-cam- Memphis 2,413 shootings in the city led to a
era footage. Taser said it has Suffolk County, N.Y. 2,396 call for body cameras.
signed up roughly 5,000 of the Milwaukee 2,294 As part of the investigation,
18,000 U.S. law-enforcement a state grand jury is looking
*Not all deals finalized; all officers not necessarily outfitted with cameras
agencies to the service. Sources: Bureau of Justice Statistics (department size);
into Mr. Schultz’s role in help-
“We view Evidence.com as Wall Street Journal survey (cameras) THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. ing Taser win the Albuquerque
the iTunes of law enforce- contract, according to court
ment,” said Josh Isner, Taser’s as police body cameras,” he Chicago police spokesman subpoenas. Mr. Schultz declined
executive vice president of said, “run unnecessary risks Anthony Guglielmi said Taser to comment, referring to recent
global sales. that can cause them problems was the best fit for the depart- remarks he made in the Albu-
In the contract’s first year, in the long run.” ment’s existing equipment and querque Journal that there had
Memphis agreed to pay Chicago took an approach that a police team tested other been “due diligence” to buy the
$576,000 for 2,000 body cam- similar to Los Angeles’s piggy- brands, concluding Taser best body-camera system.
eras and more than $1.6 million backing. City officials didn’t worked best. “Financially it A Taser spokesman, Steve
to use Evidence.com, according hold competitive bidding before made sense,” he said, “and Tuttle, said the company has
to contracting documents. reaching a five-year contract in technologically it made sense.” cooperated with authorities. A
Only after the agreement, January with Taser that city re- In Baltimore, where riots spokesman for New Mexico At-
said Mr. Strickland, Memphis’s the Taser deal. “is ensuring that the city is act- cords value at up to $10 mil- last year followed Freddie torney General Hector Balderas
mayor, did city officials find Some council members ing appropriately and doing all lion. The contract to Gray’s death in police custody, wouldn’t confirm or deny the
they would still need extra staff questioned why the city didn’t the due diligence.” buy roughly 2,000 body cam- officials recently chose Taser grand-jury probe.
to pore over hours of footage. conduct its own competitive Taser referred inquiries on eras and up to 800 stun cameras. The city first tested As part of Memphis’s 2015
bidding. Kern’s Taser deal was the contract to the city. guns came after police shoot- the technical quality of various agreement, Taser signed an
for 30 cameras, while the LAPD Steve Soboroff, a Los Ange- ings that led Mayor Rahm cameras without viewing price $880,000 contract with a mar-
L.A.’s ‘piggybacking’ intends to buy more than 6,000. les police commissioner who Emanuel to fire city Police Su- tags. After Taser scored high- keting firm headed by Deidre
Unexpected staffing costs “Why are we piggybacking spearheaded the body-camera perintendent Garry McCarthy. est, the city unsealed the com- Malone, the campaign manager
also helped halt Taser’s prog- on the Kern County con- effort, said the city was set to Days after Chicago released for Mr. Wharton, who was run-
ress toward what would be one tract?” an aide to Los Angeles get a better deal than Kern a video showing a black teen- ning for re-election as mayor.
of its biggest body-camera con- City Council President Herb County and had negotiated a ager, Laquan McDonald, being
‘In the effort to do Mr. Wharton, who lost to Mr.
tracts, with the Los Angeles Po- Wesson, a Democrat, wrote in clause requiring Taser to lower shot dead by police, Mr. Eman- something good,’ said Strickland, said he didn’t know
lice Department. a December email obtained its price if it did elsewhere. uel announced it would expand Taser had hired the firm until
Los Angeles was looking through a public-records re- “We did everything legally a pilot program using Taser
Memphis’s mayor, ‘the after the contract was signed,
into body cameras before Fer- quest. to do this as expeditiously as body cameras. Adam Collins, a process was rushed.’ declining to comment further.
guson, when the initiative Mr. Wesson and other coun- possible to not satisfy contract spokesman for Mr. Emanuel, Ms. Malone said her consulting
gathered steam. The police de- cil members put a hold on the experts but to save lives and said the expansion stemmed deal was based on her firm’s
partment first purchased 860 deal late last year over this and create transparency on both from a desire for more trans- pany’s price. qualifications and nothing else.
Taser cameras with private do- other concerns, said Vanessa sides of the camera,” he said. parency around such shootings. Howard Libit, a spokesman Taser’s Mr. Isner said: “Obvi-
nations, after testing different Rodriguez, a spokeswoman for “This was not done for the The city based its procure- for Mayor Stephanie Rawlings- ously, we wished that turned
brands. A city proposal last Mr. Wesson. Chief among them critics. This is not the Acad- ment procedure on a deal New Blake, said Baltimore will now out a little differently.”
year to expand camera use was the total cost of adopting emy Awards.” Jersey made with Taser, using negotiate with Taser over its Mr. Strickland, a city coun-
called for a five-year, $31 mil- the cameras. On top of the $31 an approach Chicago officials bid of $12.8 million, which he cilman before being elected
lion deal with Taser that would million that would go to Taser, call a “reference contract,” said was within the range offi- mayor, said after taking office
skip competitive bidding and the police department re- No-bid risk which they said they use for a cials anticipated. this year, he realized “there
expedite the deal by “piggy- quested $26 million for smart- Mike Purdy, a government- range of products and can save “In the grand scheme of was no discussion at city coun-
backing” on a contract by Cali- phones, data plans and other contracting consultant who has time and money. According to procurements we do, it is an cil or in the community of the
fornia’s Kern County—taking a technology for the rollout. Po- worked with Washington state New Jersey records and Taser, uncommon practice,” he said full cost and amount of man-
process already undertaken as lice officials said they would and cities such as Seattle, said the state has a 2012 contract of the sealed pricing and tech- power this was going to need.”
the basis for its own. need to hire 122 people to han- no-bid deals expose cities to with the company for police nical testing. “There was a “Obviously, all across the
Los Angeles procurement of- dle the video. potentially overpaying and can supplies. State records show great desire to make sure that country people are realizing
ficials said the city uses piggy- The city is going back to the raise the specter of favoritism New Jersey has spent about the technology was rigorously the importance of body cam-
backing in “commodities,” or drawing board to reduce costs. and inappropriate influence. $230,000 on Taser products tested to ensure it was going eras,” he said. “But I don’t feel
goods, about 10% of the time “Balancing the need for swift- “Agencies that do not bid since then. Taser said the state to work and deliver on what any pressure in Memphis to
but said they don’t keep figures ness in the community” on products, especially highly visi- hasn’t bought any of its body was needed for police and roll them out before they’re
on contracts for services like cameras, said Ms. Rodriguez, ble and political products such cameras. prosecutors and the citizens of ready to be rolled out.”
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THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. Wednesday, March 9, 2016 | A7
U.S. NEWS
Poll Shows Clinton
With Narrower Lead
BY AARON ZITNER point lead among men.
Strongest support groups
Hillary Clinton’s national for Mr. Sanders include youn-
lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders ger voters; he takes 60% of
has narrowed slightly to nine those under age 50.
points among Democratic pri- Mr. Sanders leads Mrs.
mary voters, a new Wall Street Clinton by 28 points among
Journal/NBC News poll has white men, by 14 points
found. among liberals and by 24
Mrs. Clinton draws support points among independents
from 53% of voters who said who say they will vote in the
they would participate in a Democratic primary.
Democratic primary, while Mr. The survey was released on
Sanders has 44%, the poll the day Democrats were vot-
found. Mrs. Clinton’s lead was ing in primaries in Michigan
11 points in February and 24 and Mississippi.
points in January, according to Before Tuesday’s voting,
GERRY BROOME/ASSOCIATED PRESS
ing a message that gives the judge panel will issue written CALIFORNIA
central bank flexibility to lift opinions at a later date, a court
rates in April or June should spokeswoman said.
High-Speed Rail Plan
the economy perform well in The 25-year-old Mr. Gray, Is Allowed To Proceed
the weeks ahead, without com- who was black, sustained a bro- A judge has ruled that Cali-
mitting to a move in case eco- ken neck in police custody and fornia’s plans for a $64 billion
nomic data disappoint or new died about a week later. Hours high-speed rail system don’t vio-
market turmoil erupts. after his funeral, the city’s worst late promises made to voters
The Fed in December raised rioting in decades broke out, and when they approved state fi-
its benchmark federal-funds Mr. Gray’s death further galva- nancing for the project.
rate from near zero to a range nized a national debate on polic- The ruling released Tuesday
between 0.25% and 0.5% and ing in minority communities. by Sacramento County Superior
signaled officials expected Charges against some of the Court Judge Michael Kenny al-
more rate increases in 2016. six officers include involuntary lows planning and financing of
They next meet March 15-16 Fed chief Janet Yellen is trying to forge an agreement between two camps on the path of rate increases. manslaughter and second-degree the project to proceed.
and on Tuesday began a week murder. All six have pleaded not Attorneys who represent
of closed-door deliberations for providing support should qualitative picture hasn’t The risks to growth and guilty. Only Mr. Porter has stood Kings County and a group of
about how to proceed. the U.S. economy weaken. changed.” hiring now don’t look so trial so far. His manslaughter landowners had argued that the
Recent comments by offi- “From a risk-management Market expectations for threatening, in part because case ended in a mistrial in De- state’s projections on ridership,
cials showed they were re- perspective, this argues for rate increases have shifted financial conditions have im- cember, and his retrial is sched- construction and operating fig-
lieved by recent signs the patience as the outlook be- down since the Fed met in De- proved. uled for June. ures aren’t reliable. They asked
economy is weathering head- comes clearer,” Fed governor cember. Traders in futures Stocks have recovered some Lawyers for Mr. Porter didn’t the judge to block the state from
winds from slowing global Lael Brainard said in a markets see an average fed- lost ground after falling in respond to requests for com- spending money on the project.
growth and turbulent financial speech Monday. funds rate of 0.6% in Decem- January and early February. ment, nor did a spokeswoman The judge, however, said the
markets. Their forecasts for Ms. Brainard is among a ber and 0.9% at the end of Recent data on the econ- for Baltimore City State’s Attor- 2008 ballot initiative specified
modest growth and continued group of Fed officials who see 2017, well below the Fed’s me- omy’s performance look stable ney Marilyn Mosby. only that the state could issue
hiring, which will be updated risks the economy and infla- dian projections of 1.375% at and modest. —Scott Calvert bonds to construct a high-speed
before the meeting, appear to tion could underperform and the end of 2016 and 2.375% at The Federal Reserve Bank of rail system and didn’t prevent
be holding up. In December, greater-than-usual uncertainty the end of 2017. The Atlanta estimates economic NEW YORK modifications to the plan given
they projected the jobless rate about the outlook. This group Fed’s projections could recede output is expanding at a 2.2% to voters. He agreed with the
would drop to 4.7% by the end wants to proceed cautiously. as officials delay raising rates. annual rate in the first quarter,
Jury Set to Consider plaintiffs that the California
of 2016 and that economic Other officials, including Ms. Yellen and her col- near the Fed’s estimate of how Terror Suspect’s Case High-Speed Rail Authority hasn’t
output would expand 2.4% this San Francisco Fed President leagues need to resolve sev- it will do this year. A jury in Brooklyn will soon proven the trains will be finan-
year. The unemployment rate John Williams, say the econ- eral debates as they consider “I continue to expect that begin deliberating about whether cially viable or can meet the
was 4.9% in February. omy is performing well and how to proceed. the economy will expand over a U.S. veteran violated federal travel times voters were prom-
However, officials are want to stay on a course of One is over the risks to the the course of this year at a terrorism laws when he flew to ised but said the system contin-
weighing mixed signals on in- gradual rate increases. economic outlook. In January, pace slightly above its long- Turkey last year, one of the ues to evolve so it is premature
flation, which has been run- “The big picture hasn’t officials disagreed about term trend—sufficient to push many pending cases in the coun- for the court to intervene.
ning below their 2% goal for changed in any fundamental whether economic output, hir- the unemployment rate down try linked to Islamic State. “The authority may be able to
nearly four years. Moreover, way,” he said in a speech last ing and inflation were at risk a bit further and to more fully Prosecutors say Tairod Pugh, a accomplish these objectives at
they are wary of raising rates week. Some recent news of falling short of their fore- utilize the nation’s labor re- 48-year-old U.S. citizen, bought a some point in the future. This proj-
prematurely, given the fragile means there may be “a tweak casts. Some thought the risks sources,” New York Fed Presi- one-way ticket to Turkey in Janu- ect is an ongoing, dynamic, chang-
state of the global expansion here or there when we raise were mounting, but others ar- dent William Dudley said in a ary 2015 as the first stop on a ing project,” Judge Kenny wrote.
and their own limited scope rates or not, but the basic gued it was too soon to say. speech in China last week. trip to Syria, where he intended —Associated Press
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A8 | Wednesday, March 9, 2016 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
PERSONAL JOURNAL
Chicago
Marcus Waller and his mother
are on an uneasy journey, she in
aging and he in caregiving.
The 56-year-old postal worker
moved from the condo he bought
with his partner into the upstairs
bedroom of his mother’s home.
His mother, Melida Butler, is 83
years old.
Every night, Mr. Waller picks
up dinner on his way home from
DAVID KASNIC FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL (2)
Van Dyck’s
Masterly Portraits
REVIEW “Portrait of a Seventy-Year-Old Man”
(1613)—Van Dyck was 14—and a lively self-
KAREN WILKIN portrait, on panel, all red curls and steady
gaze (c. 1613-15), which begin two of the ex-
hibition’s three sections, respectively. (Draw-
New York ings and related works, introduced by self-
When Anthony van Dyck died in London, portraits in oil, are installed in the Frick’s
age 42, in December 1641, the Flemish-born lower-level galleries, prints are in the main-
painter had been making ambitious art for floor cabinet gallery, and paintings in the
almost three decades. A true prodigy, Van main-floor rotunda and adjoining gallery.)
Dyck was apprenticed at 10 to an Antwerp Van Dyck’s early prowess is attested to
artist. By 14, the astonishingly talented boy by the Frick’s splendid pendant portraits of
was painting accom- the esteemed Flemish
GALLERIA PALATINA/PALAZZO PITTI; ;GEMÄLDEGALERIE DER AKADEMIE DER BILDENDEN KÜNSTE, VIENNA
plished heads that dem- painter Frans Snyders
onstrate his mastery of and his wife (both c.
Flemish standards of the 1620), now placed side
time and his surprising by side, allowing us to
assimilation of a relaxed, savor, across both paint-
Italianate manner. At ings, the sensitive char-
age 18, admitted as a acterization of the cou-
master to the Antwerp ple and the play of
artist’s guild, he never- exquisitely rendered
theless put his gifts into lace and linen against
the service of his cele- velvety blacks and sil-
brated compatriot Peter very grays. (There’s a
Paul Rubens, contribut- terrific drawing of Sny-
ing to some of the se- ders downstairs.)
nior artist’s most impor- Van Dyck’s Italian pe-
tant projects, while also riod is represented by
producing notable works the dazzling, full-length
on his own. In his early seated “Cardinal Guido
20s, during an extended Bentivoglio” (1623),
stay in Italy, Van Dyck never before seen in the
made some of the most U.S. A miracle of sump-
incisive, gorgeously painted portraits of the tuous red silk and deep red velvet, the
period. painting suggests a fleeting moment of alert
A superb draftsman and an inventive response, as the cardinal looks up from
printmaker, Van Dyck could also do anything reading a letter; the crisp white paper
he wished to with paint. The directness of against pleated white silk is pretty amazing,
his paintings of friends and colleagues is too. And there’s a spectacular group of the
striking, but so are the elegance and refine- works for which Van Dyck is perhaps best Above: ‘Cardinal Guido Bentivoglio’ (1623); left: Van Dyck’s self-portrait (c. 1613–15).
ment of his portrayals of aristocratic pa- known, portraying the court and family of
trons. No wonder he spent about half of his Charles I, the doomed English king, along his mentor Rubens (both 1617) of the same glimpse into the process, suggesting how
too-short working life as the much traveled, with penetrating (but flattering) character- Jesuit missionary in Chinese costume under- brilliantly Van Dyck could conjure up per-
much sought-after darling of the nobility of izations of the painter’s well-born English scores the differences between the two art- sonality with bold brushstrokes.
the Low Countries, Italy and England. wife and plebeian mistress. ists’ approaches. Rubens evokes his stocky But Van Dyck could also draw magnifi-
All this comes to fascinating life in “Van Impressive as Van Dyck’s paintings are, subject’s particular costume and features cent likenesses when required, as the chalk
Dyck: The Anatomy of Portraiture,” at the and instructive as it is to see them near the with nuanced smudges and strokes; Van drawings and oil studies for a series of por-
Frick Collection—the first major U.S. show Frick’s 18th-century English portraits, for Dyck records basic forms and details with a trait prints attest; engravers needed exact
devoted to the artist since 1990—organized which they served as potent models, the minimum of marks, elongating the figure to models to follow, for imagery and tonal
by the guest curators, Stijn Alsteens, of the section of the show devoted to drawings is make him more imposing. massing, so Van Dyck provided them. A vig-
department of Drawings and Prints at the its most revealing. It’s like watching the art- Van Dyck’s working drawings can be even orous chalk “Portrait Study of Charles I”
Metropolitan Museum of Art, and Adam ist at work as he scrutinizes how drapery more expedient. In contrast to the majority (c. 1632-36) suggests that he could do it for
Eaker, the Met’s newly appointed assistant falls or how an elaborately dressed figure of his colleagues’ careful preparations, his his own use, too. “Van Dyck: The Anatomy
curator of Northern Baroque Painting. Al- stands, recording his observations with casual sketches barely indicate heads and of Portraiture” makes clear that he could do
though focused solely on portraits, the show rapid, urgent strokes of black chalk or spiky features. Likenesses were developed directly anything.
tells us a lot. pen marks. Only the most essential informa- in paint, on the finished canvas. Two por-
The artist’s prodigious abilities are docu- tion is noted. trait studies in oil, necessitated by the enor- Ms. Wilkin is an independent curator and
mented by the carefully observed canvas The pairing of studies by Van Dyck and mous size of a commissioned work, offer a critic.
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A10 | Wednesday, March 9, 2016 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
OPINION
REVIEW & OUTLOOK
The Return of the 1930s
Trump, Voters and the GOP Convention In temperament, he was
“bombastic, inconsis-
cans have been returning home than
coming here. So China is destroying our
D
onald Trump may pile up more than free to vote for the nominee of their choice tent, shallow and vain- manufacturing—except industrial em-
enough delegates in the primaries to on the second ballot. By the third ballot, 89.4% glorious.” On political ployment has surged in recent years, es-
questions, “he made up pecially in the Rust Belt. So the great
make his GOP presidential nomination are free to choose. This gradual liberation is
his own reality as he mass of Americans are now unprotected
this summer a formality. But designed to prevent a stale- went along.” Physically, from the vagaries of the global econ-
what if he doesn’t? Mr. Party rules require a mate and let the delegates GLOBAL
the qualities that stood omy—save for Medicare, ObamaCare,
Trump, Ted Cruz and their VIEW
media mouthpieces are claim-
majority of delegates, work their will to coalesce
eventually around the best By Bret
out were “the scowling the earned-income tax credit, public-
forehead, the rolling employee pensions and every other enti-
not just a plurality. Stephens
ing it would be political theft nominee. This isn’t cheating eyes, the pouting tlement Mr. Trump promises to protect.
to choose the nominee at a or “stealing the nomination.” mouth.” His “compul- All this generates the hysteria, the
contested convention. These It’s how the process is sup- sive exhibitionism was part of his cult of penchant for histrionic rhetoric, the
timid souls need an education in party rules, posed to work. machismo.” He spoke “in short, strident promise of drastic measures, the disdain
political history and muscular democracy. Ah, but aren’t the delegates part of the “es- sentences.” Journalists mocked his “ab- for civility, the combination of victim-
The Republican Party’s rules say a candidate tablishment”? If by establishment you mean surd attitudinizing.” hood and bullying on which the Trump
Remind you of someone? candidacy feeds, and which it fuels.
needs the votes of 1,237 of the 2,472 delegates stalwart party members in the provinces, then
The description of Benito Mussolini Reading through the avalanche of pro-
at the July convention in Cleveland to win the yes. They are often the rank-and-file GOPers comes from English historian Piers Trump emails that arrive in my inbox,
nomination. They don’t say all one needs is a who run state and local party operations. But Brendon’s definitive history of the what’s notable are the belittling put-
plurality, or to have won the most primaries. others are activists chosen to become dele- 1930s, “The Dark Valley.” So does this downs (“you’re an $@%&, Bret-boy”),
There is no moral right to the nomination be- gates by the various candidates. mean that Donald Trump is the second the self-importance (“I make more
cause a candidate wins 40%, or even 49%, of It’s true that three delegates from each coming of Il Duce, or that yesteryear’s money than you”) and the sense of in-
the delegates. He needs a majority, and the state are Republican National Committee Fascists are today’s Trumpkins? Not ex- jured pride (“how dare you call me a
1,237 number is no secret. members. But the rules this year require actly. But that doesn’t mean we should vulgarian?”). This is precisely the M.O.
Parties set this public requirement because nearly all of those RNC members to vote in the be indifferent to the parallels with the of their candidate.
they exist to win elections, and a nominating first ballot for the candidate who won the last dark age of Western politics.
majority is the best indicator of the rough con- most at-large votes in a state primary or cau- Among the parallels: The growing be-
sensus necessary to unite the party behind the cus. So those RNC members, a small minority
lief that democracy is rigged. That cha- His demagoguery may be a
risma matters more than ideas. That
winner. A candidate who can’t put together a of delegates, are expressing the will of the strength trumps principles. That coarse- foretaste of what’s to come.
majority of delegates is unlikely to unite the voters in the first go-round. ness is refreshing, authentic.
party and is probably a loser in November. The premature protests by Messrs. Cruz and Also, that immigrants are plundering
Before the primary system became the norm Trump are entirely self-serving. Both men the economy. That the world’s agonies “In breaking the taboos of civility
in the decades after World War II, party nomi- think they have a good chance to win a plural- are someone else’s problem. That free and civilization, a Trump speech and
nees were always chosen at the convention. ity of delegates but can’t be sure they’ll get all trade is a game of winners and losers— rally resembles the rallies of fascist
But even in the primary era, a convention fight the way to 1,237. They want to cry havoc in ad- in which we are the invariable losers. leaders who pantomimed the wishes of
has been possible. vance so party members will shrink in fear of That the rest of the world plays us for their followers and let them fill in the
As recently as 1976, Gerald Ford came into a GOP breakup if there’s a nominating fight at suckers. That our current leaders are text,” writes the University of Mary-
not who they say they are, or where land’s Jeffrey Herf in a brilliant essay
the convention with more delegates than Ron- the convention.
they say they are from. That they are in the American Interest. “Trump says
ald Reagan, who offered the vice presidency to These candidates and Republicans generally conspiring against us. what they want to say but are afraid
Senator Richard Schweiker to turn the Penn- should toughen up. If Messrs. Trump or Cruz These are perennial attitudes in any to express. In cheering this leader, his
sylvania delegation his way. The influential couldn’t sway a majority at the convention, it democracy, but usually marginal ones. supporters feel free to say what they
Drew Lewis chose to honor his pledge to Ford, would be because they couldn’t convince their They gained strength in the 1920s and really believe about Mexicans, Mus-
kept the Pennsylvania delegation in line, and fellow Republicans that they have the best ’30s because the old liberal order had lims, and women.”
denied Reagan the nomination. chance of winning. Every candidate entered the been shattered—first at Gallipoli, Ver- This is not the politics of economic
Democrats had to go three rounds of ballot- race knowing the rules, and every candidate dun and Caporetto; then with the Bol- anxiety or dislocation. It’s a politics of
ing in 1952 to produce Illinois Gov. Adlai Ste- has an equal opportunity to exploit them. Mr. shevik coup in Russia, hyperinflation in personal exhibitionism, the right-wing
venson as their nominee. In 1956 Democrats Trump certainly has used the accelerated pri- Germany, Black Tuesday in the United equivalent of refusing to be “body-
staged a floor flight over which of more than mary calendar to his advantage, racking up a States. “What are the roots that clutch, shamed.” Thanks to Donald, the Trump-
what branches grow / Out of this stony kins at last have a license to be as ugly
a dozen candidates to nominate for vice presi- delegate lead before he’s been subject to any
rubbish?” wondered T.S. Eliot in “The as they want to be.
dent. Estes Kefauver won. And in 1980 there real scrutiny. Waste Land,” in 1922. Mussolini’s Black- i i i
was a short-lived effort at the Democratic It’s always possible that a losing Mr. shirts marched on Rome the same year. Mr. Trump’s bid for the presidency
convention to change the rules to help Ted Trump would bolt the GOP and run as a third- Modern Americans have experienced takes place during a period of medio-
Kennedy catch Jimmy Carter, who had lost party candidate or urge his supporters to nothing like those shocks, which is one cre but nonetheless unmistakable eco-
nearly every late primary to the Massachu- boycott in November. But the same might important difference with the 1930s. nomic and employment growth in the
setts Senator. happen in reverse if Mr. Trump becomes the The French army lost more men on an U.S. But as a wise friend of mine noted
With this history in mind, each party con- nominee despite what is growing opposition average day on the Western Front than the other day, what happens when the
tinues to have rules for how long delegates are from traditional Republicans. If the business- the U.S. lost in our worst year in Iraq. next bubble bursts and recession ar-
pledged to a candidate. Under the GOP rules, man can’t rally a majority at the convention, At the height of the Great Depression, rives? A reasonable person can argue
about 1,700 delegates out of 2,472 (69%) are then he can’t unite the GOP enough to beat real per capita GDP fell by nearly 30% that Donald Trump is more Silvio Ber-
from its previous peak. At the depth of lusconi than a new Mussolini. Maybe.
bound in the first ballot to vote for the candi- Hillary Clinton. the 2008-09 recession, it fell by about Or maybe Mr. Trump’s style is just a
date for whom they are pledged—usually by a Many primaries have yet to be held, and the 6%, and soon recovered. foretaste of what’s to come, especially
primary or caucus result. The 31% who are un- odds are that the voters will give one candidate Then again, the pain you’re in is the if an American downturn became a
bound come from states that don’t hold bind- a clear majority before Cleveland. But if they pain you tell yourself you’re in. Or, at global depression.
ing presidential preference contests, or from don’t, the voters themselves will have set the least, the pain you’re told you’re in, usu- In the work of preserving civilization,
states that allow some of their delegates to re- stage for the convention fight. The event could ally by political doctors who specialize nine-tenths of the job is to understand
main uncommitted. be a great education in party democracy, and in hyping the misery of others. the past and stress its most obvious les-
If the first ballot doesn’t produce a major- it certainly would do better in the ratings than So we’re being “invaded” by Mexi- sons. Now would be a good time to re-
ity, nearly 80% of the delegates then become the usual four-day infomercial. cans—except that for years more Mexi- remember the ’30s.
T
odd bunch of gun nuts, bitter clingers, American people find it refreshing.
he Apple e-book antitrust saga petered ety of routine business practices automatically homophobes, racists, sexists, Muslim Here’s the further complication: Even
out on Monday, as the U.S. Supreme illegal, and perhaps this will be remembered haters and other assorted kooks. In this political incorrectness like Mr. Trump’s
Court declined to hear the company’s as merely a single-serving pretext to loot a view, all Mr. Trump has done is bring occasionally veers into a substantive
appeal. The question now is great American company. But the ugliness out into the open. point. Mr. Maher has done so in his
whether the legal damage can Justice Scalia’s absence if the precedent spreads, it The other explanation is a version of warnings about the threat of radical Is-
be contained or will continue is already felt as the will pose a dangerous threat Mr. Maher’s. Americans are tired of the lam and a Democratic Party trying to
to grow. to competition, efficient mar- pieties that prevent their leaders from pretend it doesn’t exist.
Apple tentatively settled Court declines an appeal. kets and whatever random addressing problems honestly. They see, The Donald makes his own contribu-
with the Justice Department companies prosecutors decide for example, their president refusing to tions here. Though no one (save possi-
and 33 state Attorneys Gen- to shake down next. utter the words “Islamist terror” even af- bly himself) would ever confuse him
ter bloody terrorist rampages that leave with Francis of Assisi, at a time when
eral pending the resolution of its appeal for It’s impossible to say how Antonin Scalia’s
Americans dead. the Obama administration wrings its
supposedly engaging in price fixing by letting absence influenced the result, though the late So when Mr. Trump vows to kill not hands about whether what’s happening
publishers set the prices of their own intellec- Justice was a formidable critic of the plastic- just the terrorists but their wives and to Christians in Syria and Iraq is geno-
tual property on the iPad. So the tech maker ity and incoherence of antitrust law. He wrote children too, it doesn’t follow that this cide, Mr. Trump speaks bluntly about
will pay $400 million to e-book purchasers or joined most of the key precedents that sup- is what his supporters are in fact cheer- U.S. impotence in the face of “people
and $50 million to the states and plaintiffs port Apple’s argument, and one or more of ing on. More likely what they hear Mr. chopping the heads off Christians” in
lawyers who contrived this farce. four sitting center-right Justices inclined to Trump saying is this: I am going to keep the Middle East.
Apple deserves recognition for challenging agree on the merits may have concluded that you safe, and I’m not going to let politi- Give Mr. Maher his due: Though he
the government’s claims so fiercely, not least the risk of a 4-4 deadlock was too great to cal correctness get in the way. At a time and Mr. Trump clearly play for differ-
because its creation of a new platform to com- grant Apple’s petition. when two out of three Americans are ent teams, they are playing the same
pete with the former monopolist Amazon has telling pollsters political correctness is game. No one should be surprised.
Justice Scalia’s death has propelled a wave
a huge problem, Mr. Trump is tapping When you suppress the healthy kind of
caused e-book prices to fall. Most corporations of companies to fold and pre-emptively settle into a powerful sentiment. political incorrectness, you end up with
would have paid to make the trouble go away with the trial bar, including Dow Chemical’s Unfortunately, Mr. Trump’s is the in- the insults and vulgarity of its bastard
long ago, especially companies as rich as Apple, $835 million disposition of an antitrust class ferior version of political incorrectness. brother.
but larger principles were at stake. action. The dispiriting Apple denouement is The better kind challenges what In the entertainment world, it comes
Apple was arraigned on a quarter-baked another reminder of how important his re- George Orwell called “the smelly little out as Bill Maher. In this year’s presi-
theory of antitrust liability that makes a vari- placement on the High Court will be. orthodoxies which are now contending dential election, it’s Donald Trump.
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THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. Wednesday, March 9, 2016 | A11
OPINION
F
why they can’t: Years of government in advanced economies holding the
ranklin D. Roosevelt’s “stimulus” spending are working highest public debt-to-GDP ratios
March 1933 inaugural line against them. that had ever been seen.”
“that the only thing we Irving Fisher, a prominent mone- Global debt of all types grew by $57
have to fear is fear itself” tary economist in the 1920s and ’30s, trillion from 2007 to 2014 to a total of
was inspiring, but wrong. explained how deflation could result $199 trillion, the McKinsey Global In-
There was plenty to fear, not least from an abnormal buildup of debt. A stitute reported in February last year.
the deflation that then gripped the debt bubble, he wrote (Econometrica, That’s 286% of global GDP compared
nation. 1933) ultimately would burst with 269% in 2007. The current ratio
Today America is in a new age of “through the alarm of either debtors is above 300%. The big boost came
anxiety, with voters opting for anties- or creditors or both.” Debt will be liq- from governments. The debt load,
tablishment outsiders like Donald uidated by the distress sales of as- McKinsey noted, “poses new risks to
Trump and Bernie Sanders. Ameri- sets, the contraction of bank deposits financial stability and may undermine
cans are not experiencing deflation, as bank loans are paid off, and the global economic growth.”
GETTY IMAGES
but there are some early symptoms. slowing down of monetary velocity The Fed says it wants to “reflate”
More important, the potential cause (the turnover from account to ac- to the tune of 2% annual inflation—
is apparent. count that modulates the effective which would let the U.S. Treasury,
supply of money). among others, work off its debt with
With falling prices come plummet- cheaper dollars. But the Fed isn’t get-
Years of deficit spending ing profits that force employee lay- and a lower bound of zero. There it encouraged consumers and business ting the inflation it wants and the
offs. The resulting pessimism and stayed until the quarter point in- to releverage. Cars are now financed deflation risk persists. Its despera-
and near-zero interest loss of confidence leads to “hoarding crease in December 2015. with low or no-interest five-year tion can be deduced from Ms. Yellen’s
rates have led to massive and slowing down still more of Unfortunately, Congress also loans. With the 2008 housing debacle suggestion that she would consider
velocity of [monetary] circulation.” passed, at President Obama’s urging, forgotten, easier mortgage terms negative rates. “Helicopter money”—
borrowing but little growth. The effective money supply con- a massive and highly politicized $831 have made a comeback. Corporations with the Fed bypassing the banks and
tracts, hence deflation. In Fisher’s billion “stimulus” bill a few months also couldn’t let cheap money go to somehow funneling money directly to
view, that’s why the American econ- later. The spending didn’t lead to waste, so they have piled up debts to consumer accounts—is even being
Among the symptoms, dollar prices omy sank into Depression in the early much if any growth, but it was fol- buy back their own stock. Such “in- discussed in the press.
of oil and many other commodities 1930s. (Why it stayed depressed for a lowed by a string of trillion-dollar- vestment” produces no economic Ironically, voters are turning
have slumped; the U.S. consumer-price decade is another story.) plus deficits. Federal debt, a bit over growth, but it has to be paid back toward a developer, Donald Trump,
index hardly budged in 2015. The Eu- When global stock markets $10 trillion in 2009, has ballooned to nonetheless. who never met a highly leveraged
ropean Central Bank and central banks crashed in 2008, Fed Chairman Ben more than $18 trillion. Amid the Great Recession, many project he didn’t like. As for Bernie
in Japan, Switzerland, Denmark and Bernanke was determined not to re- In other words, while Mr. Ber- worried that the entire economy of Sanders, his wishes are simple: more
Sweden are now charging commercial peat a mistake made in 1929. After nanke and current Fed Chairman the U.S., or even the world, would be federal spending and borrowing on
banks interest on their reserve depos- that crash the Fed failed to create Janet Yellen were trying to prevent “deleveraged.” Instead, we have a welfare programs. Should we be
its (negative interest rates) to try to enough money to compensate for the deflation, the federal government new world-wide debt bubble. “The worried about any of this?
stimulate lending. sudden loss of bank liquidity and a was engineering its cause, excessive billions of taxpayer dollars that have
The decline in energy prices is deflationary contraction of the debt. And the Fed abetted the pro- been spent on bailing out the banks,” Mr. Melloan is a former deputy ed-
appropriately celebrated, but the big money stock. And so Mr. Bernanke in cess by purchasing trillions of dollars Aaran Fronda recently wrote in Lon- itor of the Journal editorial page. His
question is whether the U.S. Federal December 2008 lowered the Fed’s in- of government paper, known as quan- don’s World Finance magazine, “com- book “When the New Deal Came to
Reserve and other central banks can terest-rate target to an upper bound titative easing. bined with huge amounts of quantita- Town” will be published by Simon &
arrest a slide into a general deflation- of a quarter of a percentage point Near-zero interest rates also have tive easing and reducing interest Schuster in the fall.
T
consumer-price index is up 42%, gold fold. The kids are “OTP”—off the My individual health-care cost risk the unemployed have no shield. Who
his year my family joined mil- is up 200%, median new-home prices payroll; just my wife and me now. In for 2016? It is $1,231 x 12, plus can be surprised if they go uninsured?
lions of others whose health- are up 74%, and the average cost per December 2014, I shopped on the $12,900 in deductibles, for a grand If you can’t afford $14,000 in premi-
insurance premium has become gigabyte of hard drive is down 99% to Internet for new health insurance. I total of $27,672. My individual share ums, why pay them when all it buys is
their biggest annual expense. More less than three cents from $22. bought a Bronze plan for two people is half—$13,836. Nearly 13 times more the exposure to another $14,000 (in
than our mortgage. More than our Here’s the math behind my than the $1,072 of 1999. deductibles) you don’t have?
property taxes. More than our state whopping increase. In 1999, having I accept that inflation accounts for I know the idea is that, over time,
income tax. More than our annual gone into business for myself, I My Bronze plan’s monthly some of this increase. And, being higher premiums and deductibles will
food or energy costs. With this year’s needed health insurance for my older, I present a higher actuarial lead to lower health-care prices,
$194-a-month premium increase, I then-young family. To enroll, I met premium jumped $194 this risk. But 13 times more? The increase more competitors and better value.
could roughly buy a Chevy Sonic or a Blue Cross Blue Shield agent at year. I never thought I’d reflects an enormous shift of eco- But “over time” reeks of the econo-
Ford Fiesta. Since 1999 our premiums Starbucks. We insured our family of nomic risk from the insurer to . . . mists’ adage “in the long run”—when
are up 350%. Bad as this is, the story four for $274 a month with a $250- look forward to Medicare. me. One might think that this would we’re all dead and, notably, have no
gets worse. per-person deductible. lower my premium, not raise it. Alas, health-care costs.
Each year our family is subject to Our annual health-care cost risk no. Risk assessment has gone Meanwhile, how can we claim to
paying health-insurance premiums was $274 x 12, plus $1,000 in deduct- that cost $1,037 a month and had a kablooey. have the world’s best health-care
and, if we see a doctor, deductibles ibles for a total of $4,288. My indi- $12,600 family deductible ($6,300 I never thought I’d look forward to system when a healthy family’s insur-
and copays. Think of this total expo- vidual risk (that is, my personal each). We were blessed last year; we Medicare. If I were eligible today, my ance premiums are its largest house-
sure as “health-care cost risk”—the share, excluding my dependents) was didn’t have perfect health but never premium would be $122 a month, hold expense?
sum of certain payments (premiums) $1,072. By 2009, those figures had filed a claim. about one-tenth of my current pre-
plus the potential payments you could jumped to $10,716 in annual premi- So I was shocked when my 2016 mium. I have 21 months to go. Mr. Press, a former president of
incur (copays and deductibles). Since ums for our family of four, plus renewal notice showed a 19% monthly Many in the workforce have been Blanchard Valley Hospital in Ohio, is
early 1999 my family’s health-care $2,000 in deductibles—a threefold premium increase to $1,231—with a shielded by their employers from the a health-care consultant and adjunct
cost risk has increased 1,190%. Over increase in health-care cost risk. higher deductible. All comparable full effects of these changes. Small professor at Emory University’s Roll-
the same period, the Dow Jones In- Since ObamaCare became law, the Bronze plans were within dollars of businesses, the self-employed, pre- ins School of Public Health.
L
one planning to enter a casino or puter models, Bill Benter, an Ameri- measured in milliseconds. up to take control.”
ady Luck has left the house. place an online bet would be advised can gambler who moved from card Here Doyne Farmer enters the pic- Along with finance, Mr. Kucharski
Computers are beating us at to keep this book handy. counting to horses, has gained an ture again. After beating roulette, he takes us through the world of poker,
our own games. From quiz I should mention that I appear in edge in betting at race tracks in Hong and Norman Packard founded a sta- where bots now infest online high-
shows to foreign-exchange trading, Mr. Kucharski’s account. Featured in Kong and elsewhere. Sports betting tistical-arbitrage operation called the stakes tables. Checkers and chess
from poker to arbitrage, artificial in- his narrative is the work of Eudae- pools are now being designed for pen- Prediction Co. that successfully ap- have fallen to computers, and the
telligence is winning. monic Enterprises, a scientific com- sion funds; Mr. Kucharski quotes a fi- plied nonlinear dynamics to the programs keep getting stronger with
The story begins 500 years ago, mune in Santa Cruz, Calif., that built nancial planner saying that gambling the addition of artificial intelligence,
when Gerolamo Cardano leapt up toe-operated computers into shoes is “the missing asset class.” particularly in areas known as “oppo-
from a card game in Venice to stab a and beat the game of roulette in the Many of these strategies rely on AI poker players can beat nent modeling,” or knowing when to
cheating opponent. Wondering if late 1970s. Proceeds from this ven- teams of players or syndicates. humans, computer models bluff. In 2011, an IBM computer, Wat-
there might be a less bloody defense ture went into a communal pot, There is also a move toward cutting son, beat the game show “Jeopardy!”
against card sharps, Cardano began known as the Eudaemonic Pie, which out the middleman. Online ex- can predict horse races, and Watson has since become key to
mathematically analyzing games of was the title of the 1985 book I wrote changes such as Betfair are handling stock trades move too fast IBM’s strategy to profit from “cogni-
chance and working out the laws of about my alternating roles as Eudae- millions of bets a day. Betfair’s tive computing,” and a new manager
probability. Thus commenced the monic scribe and high-stakes bettor. founder, Andrew Black, launched his for people to keep up. for Watson has just been brought in
long tradition of gamblers as godfa- Mr. Kucharski brings the story up to site in 2000 with a mock funeral from the Weather Co. (Weather, with
thers to statistics, chaos theory, arti- the present. He describes a successful procession through London’s finan- its complex systems and big data, is
ficial intelligence and scientific sys- computer-aided attack on London’s cial district, which included, says Mr. movements of futures, currency and another fruitful area for developing
tems for predicting the world Ritz casino in 2004, and recent work Kucharski, “a coffin announcing the other financial markets. After being predictive systems.)
financial markets. by Doyne Farmer, Norman Packard ‘death of the bookmaker.’ ” bought out by the bank UBS, Mr. “Machines take me by surprise
Adam Kucharski, a young Ph.D. and other Eudaemons on building In a chapter called “Rise of the Packard moved into modeling the ori- with great frequency,” said mathema-
from the University of Cambridge who models for market prediction. Robots,” Mr. Kucharski talks about gins of life, while Mr. Farmer delved tician Alan Turing. With computer
specializes in the mathematical mod- Science and gambling are “inter- automated strategies for arbitrage, a deeper into modeling financial mar- programs competing against one an-
eling of infectious disease, provides an twined,” Mr. Kucharski says, with wa- practice he dates from 1844, when kets. If one thinks of markets not as other at 2,000 games per second, no
elegant and amusing account of these gers being “windows into the world of Samuel Morse sent his first tele- static sets of rules but as evolving wonder our machines are getting
developments in “The Perfect Bet: chance.” Statisticians are getting graph message up the line from ecosystems, one can imagine how bi- smart. We design them to surpass us,
How Science and Math Are Taking the good at predicting sports scores. In- Washington to Baltimore. Once ca- ology and finance might eventually and they do.
Luck out of Gambling.” telligent algorithms can beat human bles had been stretched around the unite in a grand unified model. Mr. Mr. Kucharski ends with a discus-
world, it was possible to buy pork Farmer, who is currently a researcher sion of whether poker is a game of
bellies in Chicago and sell them in at Oxford, speculates in “The Perfect skill or chance. This is a practical as
Beijing or vice versa. Since then we Bet” that smart machines might well as a theoretical issue, since the
PUBLISHED SINCE 1889 BY DOW JONES & COMPANY laws covering Internet gambling are
different from those covering games
MONEY &
INVESTING
A Euro Debt Sale
Uber Readies French Blitz Triggers Anger
SERGIO PEREZ/REUTERS
ance, roughly a year in the as oil, coal and nickel. lian Open. Both Swiss watch- Sharapova, a brand ambassa-
making, that could bolster The iron-ore sector has maker TAG Heuer and German dor for Porsche since 2013,
their profits and help them de- been grappling with a sharp sports car maker Porsche said had been scheduled to appear
velop new projects amid a pro- downturn in prices over the they were suspending their at the Porsche Grand Prix ten-
longed period of weak iron-ore past few years, hitting a de- marketing relationships with nis event in Stuttgart, Ger-
prices. Under the tie-up, Vale A Fortescue iron-ore mine in Western Australia last year. cade-low of below $40 a ton in the Russian tennis player. many in April.
could buy as much as 15% in December versus a high of They follow Nike Inc., The tennis player had also
the Australian iron-ore pro- existing pits in remote north- gressive expansion to trans- above $190 a ton in early 2011. which said on Monday it was been under contract with TAG
ducer—a stake valued at west Australia or pursue plans form from a tiny explorer to Spot prices surged on Monday, putting its relationship with Heuer until the end of last
roughly US$1.1 billion today— for mining projects with its the world’s No. 4 exporter of posting a record one-day jump Ms. Sharapova on hold pend- year, a spokesman for the
giving the Brazilian company a new partner, the companies iron ore, behind Vale, Rio of 20% as confidence in ing results of her case. Swiss company said. “We had
foothold in Australia closer to said in separate statements. Tinto and BHP. China’s economic outlook im- Ms. Sharapova on Monday been in talks to extend our
its key customer, China. Fortescue was founded by bil- “It is a surprise, but it is proved, although analysts are said she failed the drug test collaboration. In view of the
Vale also might choose to lionaire Andrew Forrest in certainly smart,” said Paul skeptical the recovery will for a medication she had been current situation, the Swiss
invest directly in Fortescue’s 2003 and undertook an ag- Xiradis, chief executive of Syd- Please see ORE page B4 taking for 10 years that was Please see DRUG page B2
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B2 | Wednesday, March 9, 2016 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
Aberdeen Asset
A
Management.............B9
Global Payments.........B5
Goldman Sachs
Group....................B5,B9
Publicis Groupe...........B3
R
Regency Centers.........B7
Takata Taps Restructuring Lawyers
Albertsons...................B9 Greystar Real Estate
Rio Tinto ..................... B1
BY MIKE SPECTOR bear later. Analysts have esti-
Altimeter Capital Partners....................B6 AND MATT JARZEMSKY mated the cost could reach bil-
Robey Warshaw..........B1
Management.............B4 H lions of dollars. Takata has said
Round Hill Capital ...... B6
American Express.......B9 Harter Secrest & Takata Corp. has enlisted it can’t yet predict the final
RWE.............................B1
Apple...........A8,B1,B5,B9 Emery........................B2 restructuring lawyers amid an costs of the recalls.
S onslaught of recalls covering The company also could face
B Henderson Global
Investors...................B5 Samsung Electronics..A8 millions of vehicles with rup- a hefty fine depending on the
Balyasny Asset ture-prone air bags the Japa- outcome of a U.S. Justice De-
Honeywell Shearman Sterling ..... B5
Management...........B10
International.............B5 Siemens.......................B4 nese company supplied, said partment criminal probe. A
HYUNGWON KANG/REUTERS
Bank of America.........B9 HSBC ........................... B1 Sony.............................B3 people familiar with the mat- separate $70 million U.S. regu-
Bank of England.........A1 ter. latory fine could jump to $200
K Square.........................B5
Barclays.......................B9 The Japanese automotive million should regulators flag
Behringer Harvard......B6 Kering..........................B1 T
supplier is working with re- Takata for additional infrac-
Kroger..........................B9 TAG Heuer...................B1
BHP Billiton................B1 structuring lawyers at law firm tions. The company agreed to
Blackhawk Network L Takata..........................B2 Weil, Gotshal & Manges LLP, the fine for failing to alert reg-
Holdings....................B9 LendLease Group........B5 Taser International.....A1 the people said, tapping them ulators to defective air bags in
Blackstone Group ....... B6 London & Continental Theranos......................B4 for advice on looming uncer- A Takata airbag that was removed after a recall program. a timely manner as legally re-
Brewin Dolphin.........B10 Railways....................B5 Twitter ........................ B5 tainties about costly recalls of quired.
Burberry....................B10 LVMH ................... B1,B10 U air bags linked to 10 deaths and Weil lawyers, for instance, rep- tions ever. More than 60 mil- Takata eventually must re-
Burberry Group...........B1 M dozens of injuries globally. resented General Motors Co. in lion vehicles have been recalled call all air bags using the chem-
Uber Technologies ...... B3
C Weil’s restructuring practice the Detroit auto maker’s $50 globally due to the safety prob- ical ammonium nitrate as a
MasterCard ................. B5 United Continental
has been working with Takata billion government rescue and lem, Japan’s transport ministry propellant unless the company
Canada Pension Plan Merck...........................B2 Holdings....................B4
since at least the fall, they said. bankruptcy restructuring. has said. U.S. regulators and proves the devices are safe. Of-
Investment Board .... B6 Millenniata..................B3 United Technologies...B5
The strategies Weil lawyers The firm last year repre- lawmakers have suggested tens ficials have cited the chemical
Chevron ....................... B4 Morgan Stanley..........B1 V are advising Takata to pursue sented auto-parts supplier of millions of additional air as being prone to destabilizing
Citigroup......................B9 N and the scope of the firm’s en- Chassix Holdings Inc. in bank- bags eventually could be re- and exploding after prolonged
Vale......................B1,B10
Coca-Cola.....................B9 Vantiv..........................B5 gagement remain unclear. But ruptcy court. Weil has repre- called. exposure to moisture. Takata
Nike.............................B1
Commonwealth Bank of Visa..............................B5 Weil’s restructuring practice sented companies in five of the Takata, which had roughly has said it is cooperating with
Australia...................B7 O
Visium Asset recently has devoted more time six largest bankruptcies in U.S. $535 million in cash at the end government officials.
ConocoPhillips.............B4 Orbitz Worldwide.......B4 to Takata, one of the people history, including the collapse of December, is trying to sell Moreover, Honda Motor Co.,
Management...........B10
D P Volkswagen.................B1 said. of Lehman Brothers Holdings its automotive interiors divi- Takata’s largest customer, in
Deutsche Bank............B5 Panasonic....................B3 W Restructuring lawyers typi- Inc., which helped trigger the sion to raise money amid the November said it would no lon-
PAR Capital cally help troubled companies financial crisis. recalls. Takata is working with ger use the supplier’s front
F-G Weingarten Realty
Management.............B4 raise money, rework debt or Takata isn’t at immediate Japanese bank SMBC Nikko Se- driver or passenger air-bag in-
Investors...................B7
Facebook......................B3 PayPal..........................B5 steer their way through bank- risk of running out of money. curities Inc. and U.S. bank Moe- flaters in new vehicles under
Fortescue Metals B1,B10 Porsche Automobil
Z ruptcy proceedings. No bank- The company recently posted lis & Co. on the potential sale, development. Other auto mak-
Foxtons Group.............B6 Holding......................B1 ZTE..............................B3 ruptcy filing or other signifi- profits, and currently expects which The Wall Street Journal ers made similar moves.
cant restructuring is imminent additional financial gains even previously reported. Auto makers recalled an-
VW
Dimitri.......................B3
Power, Nev..................B4 people said. The law permits The law gives criminal examining whether the com-
B Gottlieb, Jacob..........B10
R investigations of potential prosecutors and civil govern- pany may be on the hook le-
Bailey, Christopher H
Roche, Talbott.............B9 fraud “affecting” financial in- ment lawyers flexibility to gally and financially for cus-
............................. B1,B10 Harford, Barney..........B4
Ross, Tom....................B5
stitutions. The resale value of share information, making it tomers who obtained tax
Bethune, Gordon M....B4
Hjelm, Chris................B9 Continued from the prior page the diesel cars has dropped an attractive option for the credits when they bought cars
Boubouras, George.....B4 S ouster of former CEO Martin since the software use became government. If prosecutors they thought emitted fewer
K
Budden, Nic.................B6 Shi, Lirong...................B3
Kuhn, Wolfgang..........B9
Winterkorn, as the company public last September. get the information through a pollutants than they actually
C Simphal, Thibaud........B3 faces more than $18 billion in Firrea was originally grand jury subpoena, they are did, the people familiar with
Kuroda, Haruhiko........B9
Cheng Lixin ................. B3 Smisek, Jeff................B4 fines from the civil lawsuit passed in 1989 in response to generally unable to share it the matter said. Before 2011,
Clark, Duncan..............B3 L Solca, Luca..................B1 the Justice Department filed the savings and loan crisis as with their civil counterparts. Americans could receive
Coffey, Paul.................B1 Leissner, Tim .............. B5 Stein, Hap...................B7 in January on behalf of the a way of probing fraud in the “The advantage of doing it $1,300 tax credits for purchas-
D M Szlosek, Tom...............B9 EPA. banking industry. In recent this way is that your hands ing certain clean burning ve-
Meyer, Henry..............B4 W Using Firrea, the depart- years, it was used to investi- aren’t tied,” said former civil hicles, including some of the
Dorsey, Jack................B5
ment’s civil division is now gate big banks that packaged frauds prosecutor Brian Feld- Volkswagen models at issue in
Duncan, Mallory..........B9 Munoz, Oscar..............B4 Watson, John..............B4
exploring whether lenders shoddy mortgages into securi- man, who is now a lawyer at the case.
F N White, Jason...............B7
were harmed by financing ties that lost much of their Harter Secrest & Emery LLP. Volkswagen remains in dis-
Ferrara, Greg...............B9 Narev, Ian....................B7 X customers’ purchases of the value when the U.S. housing In the Volkswagen case, cussions with the government
Forrest, Andrew..........B1 Neale, Jon...................B6 Xiradis, Paul................B1 cars under inflated values, the market collapsed. federal prosecutors also are to create a fix for the cars.
Wherever Life
fourth-quarter profit, driven drich, which Merck acquired company’s specialty chemicals
by growth at its life-sciences for $17 billion last year. business, known as Perfor-
business, even as the German Costs related to the Sigma- mance Materials, has been
pharmaceuticals group issued
cautious guidance for 2016.
The company’s closely
Aldrich deal—a central part of
Merck’s strategy to diversify
beyond its drug business—led
driven by its expertise in liq-
uid-crystal technology, used in
display screens for televisions,
Takes You
watched earnings before inter- smartphones and tablets.
est, taxes, depreciation and At the Performance Materi-
amortization excluding one-
Drugmaker said als business, Ebitda before
time items grew 6.3% to €933 it expects ‘slight’ one-time items jumped 27% to
million ($1.03 billion), beating €1.1 billion in 2015, boosted by
analysts’ expectations of €917
organic sales growth positive currency effects and
million. for the current year. the integration of AZ.
Merck said it expects Mr. Kley’s shift in strategy
“slight” organic sales growth was largely prompted by
for the current year and fore- to a 55% drop in quarterly net Merck’s struggle to bring lu-
cast Ebitda before one-time profit to €125 million, com- crative new drugs to market in
items to rise by a low double- pared with a year earlier. recent years.
digit percentage. The company That deal, first announced Merck’s best-selling drug,
posted 2015 Ebitda before one- in September 2014, is the lat- multiple sclerosis treatment
items of €3.6 billion. est step by Chief Executive Rebif, continues to face stiff
The outlook was held back Karl-Ludwig Kley, who is step- competition from cheaper ge-
by the company’s health-care ping down next month, to neric versions. Sales of Rebif
division. Merck expects Ebitda move Merck away from its tra- fell 11% in 2015.
before items at the unit to de- ditional pharmaceuticals busi- Ebitda before one-time
cline by a high-single-digit to ness by investing more in the items at the life-sciences divi-
midteens percentage, partly a life-sciences and specialty sion rose 30% last year to €856
result of research and develop- chemicals divisions. million.
DRUG
With a streamlined dashboard, quick-read
dated, but didn’t check to see strate that it was an honest
what new substances were in- mistake and there are no other market indexes and a seamless device-to-device
cluded. She took full responsi- improper reasons she took the experience, the new MarketWatch gives you easy
bility for having the drug in drug,” he said. access to critical data wherever you are.
Continued from the prior page her system and apologized for The International Tennis
watch brand has suspended letting down her fans and the Federation said in a statement Explore now at MarketWatch.com
negotiations,” the person said. sport. that Ms. Sharapova would be
The drug Ms. Sharapova “I made a huge mistake,” she provisionally suspended from
had been taking, meldonium, said during a brief news confer- competition on March 12,
was added to the banned list ence in Los Angeles on Monday. pending a full determination
in September, and went into “I don’t want to end my career of her case.
effect on Jan. 1. Ms. Sharapova this way and I really hope that —Brian Blackstone, ©2016 Dow Jones & Co. Inc.
said she was notified via email I will be given another chance Tom Perrotta All rights reserved.3DJ3356
in December that WADA’s anti- to play this game.” and Sara Germano
doping policies had been up- Nike is especially sensitive contributed to this article.
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THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. Wednesday, March 9, 2016 | B3
YUYA SHINO/REUTERS
French cities with a series of transport rules, slowing the nies trying to develop long-
billboards showing typical growth of Uber’s ranks of driv- term storage technology. Pana-
French riders and drivers sit- ers. At the same time, “Uber- sonic Corp., for example, in
ting in Uber cars. The ads, ization” has become a buzz- January introduced an archival
which will also appear in na- word in political circles for a system based on optical discs
tional and local print publica- future economy where low- that are expected to be com- Sony is one of many companies trying to develop long-term storage technology.
tions, all have taglines that wage workers live without em- patible with Sony’s.
play on Uber’s name. ployment contracts and are The two longtime rivals and style computer servers and net- 300 gigabytes, while Panasonic said. An air-filtration system to
“Uberet” reads one ad summoned with the swipe of a others are trying to address work switches. He joined Sony is starting with 100 gigabyte reduce dust buildup draws
showing a trio of weathered smartphone app. needs of companies that expect in 2015 after Sony bought a discs. most of the power, he said.
Frenchmen in berets smiling The government has also to retain data for a very long startup he formed, Optical Ar- Millenniata Inc., a Utah- Potential customers evaluat-
in the back of a sedan. An- taken direct aim at Uber. Mr. time. They face worries that chive Inc. based startup, has been offer- ing the system, which is ex-
other shows a flamboyantly Simphal is currently awaiting current storage options—pri- Many companies today use ing discs that work with Blu- pected to be generally available
dressed rider looking pen- the verdict in a criminal case marily tape drives—will at tape-cartridge systems for ray devices based on an in July, include Los Alamos Na-
sively out the window under in which he and Pierre-Dimitri some point stop reliably retain- long-term data storage, an ap- inorganic material that it says tional Laboratory, Mr. Frank-
the headline “Uberdumat,” Gore-Coty, Uber’s top execu- ing data, or that hardware to proach that backers say has ad- will be able to store data for ovsky said. The company isn’t
which means, roughly, “Uber tive in Europe, the Middle East read aging storage formats will vantages such as the large ca- 1,000 years. It offers capacities disclosing pricing, because
o’clock in the morning.” and Africa, are charged with become unavailable. pacity of each cartridge. But up to 100 gigabytes. such system sales are typically
The car-hailing service de- violating French transport and Yet another fear is that com- discs have their own selling Sony’s ulterior motive is to negotiated individually, he said.
clined to say precisely what it privacy laws. panies will have to keep spend- points, including the ability to sell hardware, which includes a Mr. Frankovsky’s former em-
is spending on the several- Prosecutors have asked that ing to transfer old information retrieve a particular piece of robotic system that shuttles ployer, Facebook, in January
week campaign, which comes Uber be fined €1 million ($1.1 as new storage media become data without needing to rewind behind refrigerator-size cabi- said it helped Panasonic de-
from Paris-based firm Marcel, million) and that Messrs. available. With Everspan, “they or fast-forward. nets to retrieve trays full of velop its storage system and
part of Publicis Groupe SA, Simphal and Gore-Coty be per- will never have to migrate or Where conventional CD-Rs discs. Everspan uses as many expected to deploy it.
but executives said it was in sonally fined smaller amounts remaster the data,” said Frank and DVD-Rs record data on or- as 64 drives to read data at ex- He attributed that choice by
the ballpark of hundreds of and banned from running a Frankovsky, who is spearhead- ganic materials that can de- tremely high speed, Mr. Frank- Facebook largely to Sony’s de-
thousands of euros. company for five years. ing the effort as chief executive grade over decades, the new ovsky said. cision to delay shipping its sys-
The campaign reflects Uber’s French campaign of Sony Optical Archive Inc. archival discs are based on in- While tape-drive storage tem to add key features, hint-
Uber’s efforts to promote what seeks to broaden its appeal to Mr. Frankovsky is better organic materials that are ex- systems generally house drives ing that Facebook may
it says are its social and eco- consumers, painting it as an known in Silicon Valley for hav- pected to retain data longer. and cartridges in separate facil- eventually use hardware for
nomic benefits for Europe, app for women traveling home ing led Facebook Inc.’s hard- They also have higher capacity ities, Everspan places discs and both companies.
where it has faced some of its late at night, to an older cou- ware design and supply-chain than the highest-capacity con- readers alongside companies’ “The fact that customers im-
fiercest resistance. ple traveling to a wedding. operations as well as the Open ventional discs, Blu-ray, which server systems, shortening the mediately have a choice be-
Under pressure from taxi The campaign is also cou- Compute Project, a multicom- typically store about 50 giga- time to retrieve archived data. tween two optical storage sup-
companies and regulators in pled with a study from econo- pany effort that promotes bytes of data. Power consumption is ex- pliers is great for the industry,”
countries from Germany to mists, showing that Uber is open-source designs for Web- Sony’s initial models store tremely low, Mr. Frankovsky he said.
Spain, Uber has retreated from helping increase employment,
its services that don’t use pro- especially in France’s de-
14% million
company’s access to critical units agencies as required. The com- firm Canalys.
components such as chips and pany is working expeditiously Mr. Cheng declined to com-
sensors. towards resolution of this is- ment on how much the restric-
The U.S. Commerce Depart- sue,” it added. tions may affect ZTE’s smart-
ment’s decision, an- ZTE Others The trade restrictions— phone business. Analysts say
7% 15%
nounced Monday, sent shock which essentially will bar U.S. the restrictions will hurt the
waves through ZTE’s global of- Source: Canalys companies from supplying ZTE company’s expansion in the
fices. THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. with an array of restricted U.S., where it has gained 7.2%
“I’m shocked and surprised. goods, including computers of the market to rank fourth
We are very disappointed by of executives to cope with the and software—come as the behind Apple, Samsung and
Cisco is committing $150 million to its own collaboration tool. this situation,” Cheng Lixin, situation. In the letter, which Chinese technology company South Korea’s LG Electronics
head of ZTE USA, said in a was reviewed by The Wall has been increasing its invest- Inc., according to Canalys.
Cisco to Invest in
phone interview Tuesday. “We Street Journal, Mr. Shi urged ments in the U.S. smartphone “ZTE found more success
will work with the [U.S.] gov- employees to stay “sober and market, sponsoring National with its handset business, but
ernment to try to solve this is- united,” adding that ZTE’s Basketball Association teams now this threatens to unravel
sue.” management has the capabil- and trying to sell more high- its progress there,” said Dun-
ata Inc., a San Francisco ings. more efficient manner and op-
startup that offers technology Rowan Trollope, a Cisco se- SANOFI timize vaccine coverage,” the
to let companies search data nior vice president who over- companies said in a statement.
stored on their own premises sees its collaboration offer-
Joint Vaccine Venture “By bringing vaccines more
and at external cloud services. ings, said the $150 million Is Coming to an End rapidly to market, both compa-
Financial terms of the deal Spark Innovation Fund will Drugmakers Merck & Co. nies would deliver greater
weren’t disclosed. help companies that are build- and Sanofi SA will end their value to all stakeholders.”
Cisco, the biggest maker of ing apps that work with Spark joint vaccines operations in Eu- —Joshua Jamerson
networking equipment, has or otherwise fostering an “eco- rope, the companies said Tues-
long sought to forge close ties system” around the service. In day, as the firms plan to LINDT Lindt called 2015 a tough year even as the firm’s profit advanced.
with domestic- and foreign- some cases, Cisco will take eq- merge their respective Euro-
government agencies responsi- uity stakes in startups; in pean vaccination businesses
Chocolate Maker’s Lindt said it increased sales parties had waited for the ap-
ble for setting technology poli- other cases, it may fund joint into their own operations. Profit Rose for Year in all its major markets, de- proval of the Argentine com-
cies and handling major development projects or take The move comes as sales Lindt & Spruengli AG on spite describing 2015 as a munications regulator Enacom,
procurements. Last July, for other steps to help developers, at the joint venture had fallen Tuesday reported an 11% in- tough year where higher raw- which came last week.
example, Cisco pledged to in- Mr. Trollope said. in recent years. Sales in 2015 crease in full-year profit as the material prices and the ele- Under the deal, Telecom Ita-
vest more than $10 billion in The Synata deal, he said, had declined to $923 million, Swiss chocolate maker over- vated level of the Swiss franc lia sold its 51% stake in Sofora
China over the next several addresses goals of the Spark an 18% slide from $1.13 billion came a “persistently challeng- were negative factors. Telecommunicaciones SA,
years to help rebuild its posi- team to add search and secu- a year earlier, according to a ing market environment” —John Revill through which the Italian com-
tion in the market amid geo- rity. Cisco said Synata’s tech- recent regulatory filing by where a hot summer slack- pany controlled Telecom Ar-
political headwinds. nology includes the capability Merck. ened demand for chocolate TELECOM ITALIA gentina.
Germany, an influential, to search through documents Merck, which is known as and a strong Swiss franc Telecom Italia said that the
high-tech hub, has been promi- that have been stored in an en- MSD outside of the U.S. and weighed on results.
Stake Sale Complete total amount generated by the
nent in prodding companies in crypted form, a capability be- Canada, and Sanofi Pasteur, Lindt said 2015 net profit At Telecom Argentina sale is $960 million, which in-
fields such as privacy and data yond that of most conven- the vaccines division of Sanofi, increased to 380.4 million Italy’s Telecom Italia SpA cludes $329.5 million that the
security. Cisco said it plans to tional search engines. created the joint venture in Swiss francs ($382 million) said Tuesday it completed the Italian firm previously received
help Germany accelerate its “Just like I don’t put my 1994 to develop and commer- from 342.4 million francs a sale of its stake in Telecom from Fintech and future reve-
“digitization,” including in- passwords on sticky notes, I cialize vaccines originating year earlier. Argentina to investment firm nue that is set to be gener-
vestments in startups and ven- don’t want my team’s commu- from both companies’ pipe- The maker of Lindor choco- Fintech Group for $550.6 mil- ated by technical support that
ture funds in the country and nications lying around unen- lines. Amid declining sales re- late balls had previously an- lion. Telecom Italia will provide to
collaborating with the public crypted on a server some- sults, the companies mutually nounced a 7.9% increase in an- The announcement comes Telecom Argentina under the
sector on technology projects. where,” Mr. Trollope wrote in agreed to end their partner- nual sales to 3.65 billion francs almost a year and a half after contract signed.
Closer to home, Cisco has a blog post. ship—known as Sanofi Pasteur for 2015. the deal was first struck. Both —Manuela Mesco
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B4 | Wednesday, March 9, 2016 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
BUSINESS NEWS
Tough Timing
Massive liquefied natural gas projects in Australia were approved when oil prices were on the rise. They have begun shipping the chilled
natural gas amid a slump in benchmark crude prices.
Theranos Ran Tests
$125
ORE
ship—from the Gorgon proj-
Gorgon plant starts lion Australian homes. from shrouded lights to avoid exert control over the market.”
ect and the company expects production as Gorgon, along with seven disturbing the nighttime mat- One of the first ventures for
to send its first cargo to cus- other gas-export facilities in ing of marine turtles to some Fortescue and Vale is likely to
tomers in Asia next week.
investors grow more Australia and neighboring Pa- of the world’s toughest quar- be a tie-up on sales of existing
However, the plant is becom- skittish about China. pua New Guinea, promised to antine procedures to cut the Continued from page B1 ore. The companies want to
ing operational at the same help redraw the energy map risk of invasive species being last. blend some of the ore they
time investors are more skit- by moving the epicenter of brought in by workers. Vale and Fortescue have each dig up to create a new
tish regarding the health of Energy companies say the global gas trade away The Gorgon project “is the been trying to reduce operat- product they can sell to steel-
China’s economy, amid an shareholders will benefit from the politically volatile poster child of rampant cost ing costs to help counter fall- makers in China, the world’s
oversupply of major commod- from a guaranteed revenue Middle East. About $180 bil- inflation gone wrong in the ing prices, which have de- biggest buyer of the main in-
ities. stream from Australia. Chev- lion was committed by com- Australian LNG industry,” voured their profits. In gredient in steelmaking.
Last month, Chevron, ron estimates gas output panies including Chevron, said Neil Beveridge, a Hong December, Citigroup estimated Fortescue’s ore is of a lower
which owns nearly 50% of from Gorgon will last at least ConocoPhillips and France’s Kong-based senior analyst at the pair had break-even costs quality than what comes from
Gorgon, was among 10 U.S. oil 40 years. Also, Chevron and Total SA to Australia’s gas- Sanford C. Bernstein. He esti- of about $33 and $37 a metric its competitors, meaning it
companies whose credit rat- its partners have locked export industry between mated that the project’s over- ton, respectively—only a touch contains less iron per metric
ings were cut by Standard & Asian customers including 2009 and 2012. all cost could come in at below the then-spot price of ton and is typically more diffi-
Poor’s because of the oil- China into deals linked to oil As well as concerns raised close to $60 billion, or $39. BHP and Rio Tinto’s cult to process. Some analysts
price rout. prices that last as long as 20 by the impact of falling prices roughly $4,000 a ton of ca- break-even costs were esti- have questioned whether it
Another of Gorgon’s big in- years, meaning that they on margins, onshore LNG pacity—about twice the cur- mated at $29 a ton. could also become harder to
vestors—Exxon Mobil Corp.— must pay for natural-gas sup- projects are costly because rent break-even estimate Fortescue Chief Executive sell as China takes a tougher
had its triple-A corporate rat- ply whether they need it or they require refrigeration based on current prices. Nev Power denied the deal is stance on industries seen as
ing placed on watch by not. tanks and a network of trans- Chevron expects the proj- about wresting customers contributing to a worsening
Standard & Poor’s Ratings “We expect legacy assets portation pipelines, while in ect to add a little more than away from BHP and Rio. Nor is pollution problem.
Services for a possible down- such as Gorgon will drive many cases sea channels need 200,000 barrels a day to its it a precursor to a takeover, he In contrast, Vale’s ore typi-
grade. long-term growth and create to be created for LNG tankers production when fully opera- added. “This is about creating cally has a higher iron content
Many experts say Gorgon, shareholder value for decades to arrive at ports and load tional. That compares with a long-term constructive rela- than its competitors, but
now estimated to cost $54 to come,” John Watson, Chev- up. the company’s output of 2.67 tionship between the two com- doesn’t receive enough of a
billion to build versus an ron’s chief executive, said. Gorgon’s construction on million barrels a day in the fi- panies,” Mr. Power said. “This premium for its quality, say
original budget of $37 billion Representatives for Exxon isolated scrubland off Austra- nal three months of 2015. is not any strategy to try and fund managers.
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MARKETS DIGEST B8 | TUESDAY’S MARKETS B9 | HEARD ON THE STREET B10 | FINANCE WATCH B10
Olympic Renewal
For London Site
BY ART PATNAUDE “What’s happening in Strat-
ford is very much in its in-
Real-estate investors are fancy,” but development plans
betting London is on track to are “significant,” said Gordon
deliver a rare feat: the lasting Aitchison, director of transac-
revitalization of neighborhoods tions at Legal & General Prop-
around an Olympic park, years erty, the property arm of Legal
after the games ended. & General. “It’s a transforma-
In many cities over the tion of the entire area.”
years, the closing ceremonies Office buildings are a big
have coincided with a slow- component. The asset-manage-
down of economic growth in ment arm of Deutsche Bank
the districts where the games paid £370 million for a 515,000-
took place. square-foot office building
Venues from the 2004 scheduled for completion in
games in Athens have been 2018. The Financial Conduct
abandoned, while many Olym- Authority, the U.K. financial
pic sites from the 2008 games watchdog, has already commit-
in Beijing are in disrepair. Rel- ted to a 20-year lease for
Total amount loaded Gift cards have Counterfeit cards The most popular gift-card types ics from the 1984 Sarajevo Win- around 3,800 of its employees.
onto prepaid cards been growing accounted for during the 2015 shopping season*: ter Olympics have been de- Legal & General, meanwhile,
stroyed or abandoned. The 1976 bought a 265,000-square-foot
in popularity,
49%
Montreal Olympics nearly office building for £246 million
Store-specific cards
especially those Restaurants 34.8% drove the city to financial ruin. that, when completed next year,
$300 billion
that can be used Department stores 34.4% London, by contrast, seems will be occupied by Transport
poised for growth. In Stratford, for London, which runs the
150 Est.
anywhere, also General purpose 22.7% the district that hosted the city’s public transport network.
known as ‘open- of world-wide 2012 Olympics, German lender The building is pre-let for 25
General-purpose
0 loop’ cards. credit-card losses of Coffee shop Deutsche Bank AG and U.K. as-
set manager Legal & General in
years.
The buildings are part of the
’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 $16.31 billion in 2014. cards 20.1% January spent a total of £616 International Quarter, a joint
million ($878.7 million) in two venture between Australian
*Numbers add up to more than 100% because respondents could select more than one answer. separate deals on office build- property firm Lendlease Group
Sources: Mercator Advisory Group; the Nilson Report; National Retail Federation; iStock photo (coffee cup); Cindy Yamanaka/The Orange County Register/Zuma Press (cards) ings currently under construc- and London & Continental
tion. Railways, which manages
Investors Target
Students in U.K.
BY ART PATNAUDE umes just a few years ago,”
Mr. Neale said.
International investors are For U.K. student accommo-
piling into U.K. student hous- dation, the average investment
ing, with a flurry of deals yield has been 5.8% this year,
showing renewed interest in compared with 5.1% on offices,
this small corner of the prop- according to Real Capital Ana-
erty market. lytics data.
Greystar Real Estate Part- The yield on student hous-
ners of the U.S. has agreed to ing is down from 6.4% last
buy a student-housing portfo- year, a reflection of rising
lio for about £600 million prices.
($856 million) from U.K. pri- There were about $2.4 bil-
vate-equity group Round Hill lion of student housing trans-
Capital LLC, a person familiar actions in the U.K. in 2014,
with the deal said. down 18% from 2013, accord-
Last week, the Canada Pen- ing to Real Capital Analytics.
sion Plan Investment Board U.S. firms Greystar, LaSalle In-
spent £1.1 billion to acquire vestment and Goldman Sachs
JEFF J MITCHELL/REUTERS
the U.K.’s Liberty Living, while have been among the biggest
a company headed by Russian buyers in the last two years,
oligarch Mikhail Fridman paid the data show.
£532 million for another Lon- Last Friday, the Canadian
don student-housing portfolio. Pension Plan bought 16,700
Yields on office buildings student rooms in more than
and other traditional property 40 residences across 17 cit-
types have fallen as investors ies—as well as the company The Olympic Stadium at the London 2012 Olympic Games. The area is now growing as more office buildings are being built.
flush with cash and able to that manages the business—
borrow at low rates have
pushed prices higher. That has
some investors looking else-
where for higher returns.
from the Brandeaux Student
Accommodation Fund.
This was the Canadian in-
vestor’s largest-ever real-es-
LONDON East London remain some of
the poorest in Britain.
Regeneration was a major
part of London’s original Olym-
don have made the new office
space being created in Strat-
ford more attractive. TfL, the
tube operator, will pay £36.50 a
should support office develop-
ment, said Jessica Hardman,
head of real-estate transac-
tions, U.K. and Ireland at
Traditionally, real-estate in- tate deal in Europe, and its Continued from page B5 pic bid, said David Goldstone, square foot for their new office Deutsche Asset Management.
vesting “has been focused first there in the alternative side the U.S. in Stratford. Other chief executive at the London space, around half the average For those living nearby,
around the main commercial space, said Andrea Orlandi, London cultural institutions, Legacy Development Corp. Ken London office rent. travel just got cheaper. The
property types of retail, office, head of European real-estate such as the Victoria and Albert Livingstone, the mayor of Lon- Property broker JLL, the London subway network has six
and industrial,” a February re- investments. Museum and University College don from 2000 to 2008, leasing agent for the Interna- zones, with fares rising incre-
port from the Investment For CPP, student accommo- London, are set to take up new “wasn’t interested in sport. He tional Quarter, is currently talk- mentally away from central
Property Forum, a U.K. indus- dation provides “a noticeable spaces there. was interested in regenerating ing to major technology firms, Zone 1. In January, Stratford
try body, said. pickup in the yield” offered by And the Olympic facilities an area of massive depriva- banks and other government and nine other East London
But investors’ hunt for office investments, Mr. Orlandi continue to draw crowds. The tion,” Mr. Goldstone said. agencies looking to cut costs, stations changed from Zone 3
higher long-term returns is said. aquatic center where Michael “I remember talking to the said Matthew Mycock, a direc- to the newly designated Zone
producing “significant changes The opportunity to buy the Phelps won four gold medals Sydney organizers” about the tor at JLL. Office rents for the 2/3.
in the market,” said Jon Neale, management company and its offers swimming lessons to games it hosted in 2000, Mr. next phase of construction in Travelers heading into Lon-
head of U.K. research at bro- team means, “we can look to 1,500 children each week. The Goldstone said. “It was only the International Quarter could don will pay the lower Zone 2
ker JLL. The fastest-growing buy more assets” in a sector Olympic Stadium hosted Rugby during the games that they be around £45 a square foot, fare, while those traveling out
sectors are now those deemed “that can, and will, consolidate World Cup games last autumn. started to ask, ‘What are we which is still below another of London will pay the Zone 3
“alternatives”—like student- in the future,” he said. The band AC/DC is performing going to do about the legacy?’ ” East London business district, fare. The change was an effort
housing, hotels, health care In the Greystar deal Mon- there in June. he said. Canary Wharf, he said. “to recognize the shifting eco-
and privately rented residen- day, Round Hill is selling three In the 1800s, industrializa- Development plans in Strat- Another boon for Stratford nomic map of London towards
tial real estate—£11.6 billion of London residences with 2,375 tion turned London’s East End ford have coincided with a Lon- development: London has been east London,” a statement from
which traded in 2014, a 33% beds, a portfolio it bought for from farmland into a busy man- don real-estate boom. Around gradually migrating eastward TfL said.
increase from 2013, JLL fig- $415 million from Blackstone ufacturing hub with a reputa- $42.5 billion was invested in for decades. The recent housing Stratford should continue to
ures show. Group in 2012. Round Hill will tion for slums and crime. Trade London commercial property boom, which has seen prices benefit from the influx of peo-
It remains a small part of retain the student-housing along the River Lea served the last year, only slightly less that vault to record highs, has ple, culture and jobs, and lower
the £65 billion of U.K. real es- brand Nido, its management growing manufacturing base. the $45.1 billion invested in all helped usher home buyers into office rents, Ms. Hardman said.
tate traded last year, but alter- business and one student resi- But the industrial area was of Germany, according to Real the less-expensive eastern ar- “The Olympic effect was im-
natives “accounted for only a dence in London it bought ear- devastated by heavy bombing Capital Analytics. eas. The growing population portant,” she said. “Otherwise
few percentage points of vol- lier this year. during World War II. Areas of Years of rising prices in Lon- wanting to live near work it’s just another office park.”
the biggest property brokers home,” said Nic Budden, chief about 58% from March 2014. June.
in the capital. executive, in a statement. The company dropped out of “Whilst we acknowledge
Foxtons on Tuesday said its Foxtons said while sales are the FTSE 250 index in Decem- Foxtons has the strongest
2015 pretax profit fell 2.6% to expected to grow this year, the ber because of the deep share- brand profile among the U.K.
£41 million ($58.5 million). “recovery in volumes will be price declines. Estate Agent sector, we con-
Weaker profit coincided affected by a low level of As prices for luxury homes tinue to have concerns regard-
with a drop in deal making in stock.” in central London fall, Foxtons ing London end market dy-
the market for luxury London The company reported a is expanding outward. In 2015 namics, which we suggest may
homes, which had become one 4.1% increase in revenue to the firm opened seven curtail volumes,” said Citi ana-
of the hottest global assets af- £149.8 million, and revenue branches outside the center lysts in a note to investors. Foxtons is one of the biggest real-estate brokers in London.
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THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. Wednesday, March 9, 2016 | B7
DAVID GRAY/REUTERS
scrutiny of the entire insur- He said the company had losses that clients faced be-
ance industry. failed to meet its responsibil- cause of what he described as
The Australian Securities ity to deal with claims as sen- “poor advice provided by
and Investments Commission sitively, quickly and fairly as some of our advisers” between
confirmed Tuesday it would possible regarding customers 2003 and 2012.
examine media allegations who had been the subject of Ian Narev, the bank’s CEO, has expressed disappointment over how claims were handled. At that time, a parliamen-
that the Sydney-based Com- the media report. tary committee recommended
monwealth Bank of Australia “We focused too much on was possible that among Com- clear they intended to put a ernment had asked the securi- that a royal commission be es-
Ltd. sought in several in- process rather than people,” mInsure’s four million custom- spotlight on the industry. ties commission for an urgent tablished to examine the
stances to deny or reduce the he said, adding that he would ers there might be other in- “We are absolutely shocked report to look at whether the bank’s actions as well as
payout on insurance claims. personally write to the cus- stances similar to those by the allegations,” Assistant actions described in the media whether ASIC, the securities
The allegations, made in a tomers concerned to apolo- highlighted in the media re- Treasurer Kelly O’Dwyer told report were isolated instances regulator, should have done
joint report by the Australian gize. “We focused on details port, but expressed the belief state radio. “They are deeply at CommInsure or reflected in- more to protect consumers of
Broadcasting Corp., the coun- which caused delays at critical that they weren’t the norm. shocking, they are deeply con- dustrywide practice. financial services. But the fed-
try’s public broadcaster, and times for customers that Government officials re- cerning and they need to be New South Wales Sen. John eral government opted against
Fairfax Media in recent days needed help.” acted strongly after the report properly investigated.” Williams said he expected that establishing such a commis-
described a culture at Com- Mr. Narev also said that it was broadcast and made it Ms. O’Dwyer said the gov- political unease over the re- sion then.
but landlords are thriving with 3.3% in 2006 alone, before the
properties often seen as subur- recession hit. BY JOHN LETZING ruption-related investigation
ban eyesores: strip malls and “New supply is at histori- AND JAKE MAXWELL WATTS in Singapore and other juris-
shopping centers. cally low levels,” said Hap dictions, including Malaysia
The main reason: safety. Stein, CEO of Regency Centers SINGAPORE—The head of and Switzerland. BSI hasn’t
While economic uncertainty Corp., which owns more than Asian operations for Swiss been accused of wrongdoing in
clouds the outlook for many 300 properties from Massachu- bank BSI SA, Hanspeter Brun- those investigations.
businesses, owners of open-air setts to California. Mr. Stein ner, has “decided to retire,” Switzerland’s attorney gen-
retail space have gotten a rela- said the firm’s properties are the bank said on Tuesday. eral said in January that his
tive boost because their tenants about 96% occupied and rents The company didn’t give a office’s investigation into
often include grocers, discount- grew by more than 9% on aver- more specific reason for the transactions involving 1MDB
clothing stores and pharma- age in 2015. departure. And the 64 year-old showed $4 billion may have
cies—stores that consumers Developers also are wary of Mr. Brunner, who is a BSI been misappropriated from
shop at in good times and bad. Strip shopping centers like this one in North Miami, Fla., are doing building new shopping centers board member based in Singa- Malaysian state-owned compa-
“They’ll cut back on food a well in a tepid U.S. economy. because new homes aren’t be- pore, didn’t respond to a re- nies.
little bit. They’ll buy hamburger ing built at a rapid clip in sub- quest for comment.
instead of filet mignon,” said lions of dollars’ worth of strip On Sunday, analysts at Ever- urban areas where this kind of The Swiss bank on Tuesday
Drew Alexander, chief executive malls and shopping centers re- core ISI downgraded the shop- retail space thrives, said Paul said Mr. Brunner’s responsibil-
One of BSI’s major
of Weingarten Realty Inves- flect the favorable conditions. ping-center sector to “hold” be- Morgan, an analyst at Canac- ities will be handed over to its clients is the state
tors, a Houston-based shop- In many cases, they fared bet- cause the companies’ stock- cord Genuity. Real estate in head of Private Banking Asia,
ping-center landlord whose ma- ter than the broader market market valuations “seem a bit densely populated urban areas Raj Sriram.
investment fund
jor tenants include grocers when fears of a recession rat- stretched.” is in fashion. BSI, which is based in the 1MDB.
such as Kroger Co. and Whole tled investors early this year Nonetheless, “from a funda- To take the risk of building Italian-speaking region of
Foods Market Inc. “But the im- and then logged gains as the mental standpoint,” they said in a slow-growth economy, de- Switzerland, historically ca-
portant thing is they still come market rebounded in recent in a report, the outlook for the velopers and lenders generally tered to Italian clients. BSI re- 1MDB said at the time that
to the center.” weeks. sector is positive “due to the need a commitment from an lied on Mr. Brunner to aid its it was prepared to cooperate
At the same time, the tepid Office landlords have gotten limited supply and the ability anchor tenant to occupy the expansion in Asia, after he with authorities, and it has de-
economy is limiting construc- hit in 2016 by investor con- to push rents.” new space, Mr. Morgan said. joined the bank from the Sing- nied wrongdoing. A represen-
tion of new space, according to cerns about weak tenant de- Regional malls get much of The scarcity of new space apore office of RBS Coutts in tative for 1MDB on Tuesday
real-estate executives and ana- mand if the economy slows, the attention from shoppers can put owners of existing 2009. didn’t respond to a request for
lysts. As a result, retailers are while apartment REITs have and retailers, but open-air properties in desirable loca- In early 2010, BSI said Mr. comment.
showing steady demand for suffered from worries that con- shopping centers make up a far tions in a relatively strong po- Brunner’s appointment was an Last year, Singapore police
many existing properties, and struction of new multifamily greater share of America’s total sition if vacancies arise. important part of its increas- told Malaysian authorities in a
occupancy is running high, they buildings will lead to a glut. retail square footage, Mr. White Conor Flynn, CEO of Kimco ing presence in Asia. The fol- letter reviewed by The Wall
said. By contrast, many shopping- said. They can range from small Realty Corp., one of the largest lowing year, BSI announced Street Journal about more
“There’s an argument that center REITs were up roughly properties with two or three lo- shopping-center REITs, said that its number of employees than $500 million in transfers
this good-enough environment 2% to 4% this year through cal merchants to large proper- there is “a waiting list” to get in Asia had increased to 280 made between 2011 and 2013
is ideal,” said Jason White, a Monday’s close. The S&P 500 ties occupied by national into the firm’s properties and from 50 over the course of a from an entity tied to 1MDB
senior analyst at Green Street was down slightly more than brands. he said anchor stores are more year and a half. into a BSI account. 1MDB has
Advisors, a real-estate research 2% over the same period, and New space at such centers than 98% occupied. When va- One of BSI’s major clients— acknowledged that it holds a
firm. the MSCI US REIT Index, which has been growing less than 1% cancies do occur, the company Malaysian state investment BSI account in Singapore. BSI
Share prices of real-estate tracks owners of various types annually in recent years, ac- can often command a higher fund 1Malaysia Development has declined to comment on
investment trusts that own bil- of properties, is down 0.1%. cording to the International rent, Mr. Flynn said. Bhd., or 1MDB—is under cor- the matter.
banker in the region and the investigators believe $1 billion Offering internships to rela- standing, according to a person
resignation from the mining that originated with 1MDB was tives of clients or potential cli- familiar with the matter.
deal are blows to Goldman’s lu- transferred to personal ac- ents had been common busi- After leaving Goldman, Mr.
crative business in Southeast counts of Najib Razak, Malay- ness practice for big banks in Leissner took on an advisory
Asia, which Mr. Leissner built sia’s prime minister. In October, Asia. But the practice has come role with Wildcat Capital Man-
over more than a decade. the Journal reported that U.S. under scrutiny for possible vio- agement, the family office of
Goldman had been helping a investigators had begun to ex- lations of U.S. bribery laws and private-equity giant David Bon-
group of investors secure fi- amine Goldman’s dealings with Goldman is among several in- derman. Mr. Leissner is close
nancing in their potential bid the fund. ternational banks being investi- with executives in Asia at TPG
for a controlling stake of an In- Investigators in two of the gated for hiring relatives of top Capital, the firm founded by
donesian copper-mining opera- countries probing 1MDB, while Chinese government officials, Mr. Bonderman. A person fa-
tion when the firm’s executives agreeing most of the money according to regulatory filings. miliar with the matter said Mr.
grew concerned about an ad- transferred to Mr. Najib’s ac- Goldman officials have declined Leissner was no longer an ad-
viser to one member of the count ultimately was returned, to comment on the probes. viser to his firm.
group. The person’s name ap- Goldman’s Tim Leissner and his wife, Kimora Lee Simmons. believe the money originated Goldman is expected to dis- —Tom Wright
peared on emails involving the with 1MDB, according to people close some details on Mr. Leiss- contributed to this article.
deal, which were seen by Gold- have generated more than that controls the copper-mining familiar with the probes.
man investigators looking at $50 million in revenue for the operations, declined to com- Mr. Najib has denied wrong-
ADVERTISEMENT
Mr. Leissner’s activities, people bank, making it one of the big- ment. At a Feb. 29 mining con- doing or taking any money for
familiar with the matter said.
The person involved in the
deal also asked Mr. Leissner
gest transactions in the region
since three big bond offerings
by the Malaysian fund in 2012
ference in Florida, Newmont
Chief Executive Gary Goldberg
said that “Newmont and our
personal gain. The 1MDB fund
said in a statement on Feb. 19
that it “has not paid any funds
Business Real Estate & Auctions
whether Goldman could hire his and 2013. Those transactions partner, Sumitomo, are in dis- to the personal accounts of the
child as an intern, and Mr. generated hundreds of millions cussions with certain interested Prime Minister.” Malaysia’s at- CARIBBEAN
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Leissner agreed, a person fa- of dollars in revenue for Gold- parties” over the potential sale torney general said the money
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whose identity couldn’t be isse Group AG after Goldman “none have secured fully com- from a member of Saudi Ara- Every Wednesday.
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B8 | Wednesday, March 9, 2016 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
MARKETS DIGEST
Nikkei 225 Index STOXX 600 Index S&P 500 Index Data as of 4 p.m. New York time
Last Year ago
16783.15 t 128.17, or 0.76% Year-to-date t 11.82% 337.48 t 3.45, or 1.01% Year-to-date t 7.74% 1979.26 t 22.50, or 1.12% Trailing P/E ratio * 23.08 20.50
High, low, open and close for each 52-wk high/low20868.03 14952.61 High, low, open and close for each 52-wk high/low 414.06 303.58 High, low, open and close for each P/E estimate * 16.55 17.65
trading day of the past three months. All-time high 38915.87 12/29/89 trading day of the past three months. All-time high 414.06 4/15/15 trading day of the past three months. Dividend yield 2.27 1.97
All-time high: 2130.82, 05/21/15
International Stock Indexes Data as of 4 p.m. New York time Global government bonds
Latest 52-Week Range YTD Latest, month-ago and year-ago yields and spreads over or under U.S. Treasurys on benchmark two-year
Region/Country Index Close NetChg % chg Low Close High % chg and 10-year government bonds around the world. Data as of 3 p.m. ET
World The Global Dow 2243.26 –19.65 –0.87 2033.03 • 2643.78 –4.0 Country/ Spread Over Treasurys, in basis points Yield
MSCI EAFE 1613.10 –9.56 –0.59 1471.88 • 1956.39 –6.0 Coupon Maturity, in years Yield Latest Previous Month Ago Year ago Previous Month ago Year ago
MSCI EM USD 788.19 –6.99 –0.88 691.21 • 1067.74 –0.8 5.500 Australia 2 1.967 108.5 106.2 121.2 119.8 1.967 1.882 1.925
4.250 10 2.566 73.4 68.3 84.8 40.4 2.592 2.597 2.649
Americas DJ Americas 473.93 –6.04 –1.26 433.38 • 525.25 –2.7
3.500 Belgium 2 -132.9 -135.2 -110.9 -86.8 -0.446 -0.439 -0.141
-0.447
Brazil Sao Paulo Bovespa 49120.84 –125.26 –0.25 37046.07 • 58574.79 13.3
0.800 10 0.481 -135.2 -137.9 -117.0 -171.7 0.530 0.579 0.529
Canada S&P/TSX Comp 13312.56 –71.04 –0.53 11531.22 • 15524.75 2.3
4.250 France 2 -0.442 -132.4 -134.1 -109.3 -85.3 -0.436 -0.423 -0.126
Mexico IPC All-Share 44514.20 –452.96 –1.01 39256.58 • 46078.07 3.6
1.000 10 0.493 -133.9 -135.9 -114.9 -154.6 0.550 0.600 0.699
Chile Santiago IPSA 3042.73 –13.91 –0.45 2730.24 • 3361.36 3.4
0.500 Germany 2 -0.529 -141.1 -141.7 -117.5 -92.7 -0.511 -0.505 -0.200
U.S. DJIA 16964.10 –109.85 –0.64 15370.33 • 18351.36 –2.6
0.500 10 0.185 -164.8 -168.3 -152.9 -189.4 0.225 0.220 0.351
Nasdaq Composite 4648.82 –59.43 –1.26 4209.76 • 5231.94 –7.2
4.500 Italy 2 -0.058 -94.0 -94.8 -59.8 -54.7 -0.042 0.073 0.181
S&P 500 1979.26 –22.50 –1.12 1810.10 • 2134.72 –3.2
2.000 10 1.420 -41.2 -44.5 -4.8 -92.9 1.464 1.701 1.316
CBOE Volatility 18.76 1.41 8.13 10.88 • 53.29 3.0
0.100 Japan 2 -0.224 -110.6 -111.4 -86.3 -71.8 -0.208 -0.193 0.009
EMEA Stoxx Europe 600 337.48 –3.45 –1.01 303.58 • 414.06 –7.7 0.100 10 -0.094 -192.6 -195.5 -171.2 -186.0 -0.047 0.037 0.385
Stoxx Europe 50 2832.35 –22.95 –0.80 2556.96 • 3602.76 –8.6 0.500 Netherlands 2 -0.501 -138.3 -141.3 -114.8 -86.6 -0.507 -0.478 -0.139
Austria ATX 2236.97 4.25 0.19 1929.73 • 2695.57 –6.7 0.250 10 0.305 -152.7 -155.2 -137.0 -179.5 0.356 0.379 0.450
Belgium Bel-20 3371.19 –27.03 –0.80 3117.61 • 3910.33 –8.9 4.350 Portugal 2 0.275 -60.7 -69.9 -46.7 -54.1 0.207 0.203 0.187
France CAC 40 4404.02 –38.27 –0.86 3892.46 • 5283.71 –5.0 2.875 10 2.968 113.6 104.2 143.7 -49.3 2.951 3.186 1.752
Germany DAX 9692.82 –86.11 –0.88 8699.29 • 12390.75 –9.8 0.500 Spain 2 -0.049 -93.1 -94.4 -64.1 -58.8 -0.039 0.029 0.140
Greece ATG 563.67 4.23 0.76 420.82 • 857.92 –10.7 2.150 10 1.560 -27.3 -32.6 1.0 -95.9 1.582 1.759 1.286
Hungary BUX 25255.40 344.09 1.38 18329.36 • 25255.40 5.6 3.750 Sweden 2 -0.619 -150.1 -151.1 -124.9 -86.4 -0.605 -0.579 -0.136
Israel Tel Aviv 1460.48 3.00 0.21 1383.34 • 1728.89 –4.5 2.500 10 0.488 -134.4 -136.8 -127.5 -141.5 0.540 0.475 0.831
Italy FTSE MIB 18017.56 –41.71 –0.23 15773.00 • 24157.39 –15.9 1.000 U.K. 2 0.383 -49.9 -49.3 -35.8 -32.3 0.413 0.313 0.404
Netherlands AEX 432.89 –3.11 –0.71 378.53 • 510.55 –2.0 2.000 10 1.385 -44.7 -42.6 -33.4 -27.0 1.482 1.415 1.975
Poland WIG 46534.99 –308.49 –0.66 41747.01 • 57460.44 0.1 0.750 U.S. 2 0.882 ... ... ... ... 0.906 0.670 0.727
Russia RTS Index 839.23 … Closed 607.14 • 1092.52 10.9 1.625 10 1.832 ... ... ... ... 1.908 1.749 2.245
Spain IBEX 35 8740.30 –46.50 –0.53 7746.30 • 11884.60 –8.4
Sweden SX All Share 481.88 –3.20 –0.66 432.78 • 564.90 –4.6 Commodities Prices of futures contracts with the most open interest 3:30 p.m. New York time
Switzerland Swiss Market 7971.15 –47.98 –0.60 7425.05 • 9537.90 –9.6 EXCHANGE LEGEND: CBOT: Chicago Board of Trade; CME: Chicago Mercantile Exchange; ICE-US: ICE Futures U.S.; MDEX: Bursa Malaysia
South Africa Johannesburg All Share 52247.84 –425.95 –0.81 45975.78 • 55355.12 3.1 Derivatives Berhad; TCE: Tokyo Commodity Exchange; COMEX: Commodity Exchange; LME: London Metal Exchange;
NYMEX: New York Mercantile Exchange; ICE-EU: ICE Futures Europe. *Data as of 3/7/2016
Turkey BIST 100 77682.88 199.03 0.26 68230.47 • 88651.88 8.3
One-Day Change Year Year
U.K. FTSE 100 6125.44 –56.96 –0.92 5499.51 • 7122.74 –1.9 Commodity Exchange Last price Net Percentage high low
360.00 1.00 0.28% 378.25 354.25
Asia-Pacific DJ Asia-Pacific TSM 1320.40 –8.14 –0.61 1188.42 • 1621.10 –5.0 Corn (cents/bu.) CBOT
Soybeans (cents/bu.) 884.75 3.00 0.34 890.50 856.00
Australia S&P/ASX 200 5108.00 –34.80 –0.68 4765.30 • 5982.70 –3.5
Wheat (cents/bu.)
CBOT
CBOT 464.75 2.00 0.43 493.50 442.25
China Shanghai Composite 2901.39 4.05 0.14 2655.66 • 5166.35 –18.0
Live cattle (cents/lb.) CME 137.200 1.250 0.92 138.550 127.150
Hong Kong Hang Seng 20011.58 –148.14 –0.73 18319.58 • 28442.75 –8.7
Cocoa ($/ton) ICE-US 2,976 -34 -1.13% 3,215 2,738
India S&P BSE Sensex 24659.23 12.75 0.05 22951.83 • 29044.44 –5.6
Coffee (cents/lb.) ICE-US 121.65 0.75 0.62 128.25 113.35
Japan Nikkei Stock Avg 16783.15 –128.17 –0.76 14952.61 • 20868.03 –11.8
Sugar (cents/lb.) ICE-US 14.87 0.21 1.43 14.93 12.61
Singapore Straits Times 2778.77 –44.74 –1.58 2532.70 • 3539.95 –3.6
Cotton (cents/lb.) ICE-US 56.94 -0.44 -0.77 64.30 54.53
South Korea Kospi 1946.12 –11.75 –0.60 1829.81 • 2173.41 –0.8 Robusta coffee ($/ton) ICE-EU 1410.00 16.00 1.15 1,568.00 1,342.00
Taiwan Weighted 8664.31 4.76 0.05 7410.34 • 9973.12 3.9
Copper ($/lb.) COMEX 2.2175 -0.0660 -2.89 2.3040 1.9440
Source: SIX Financial Information;WSJ Market Data Group Gold ($/troy oz.) COMEX 1263.40 -0.60 -0.05 1,280.70 1,061.90
Silver ($/troy oz.) COMEX 15.415 -0.218 -1.39 16.005 13.760
Currencies London close on March 8 Aluminum ($/mt)* LME 1,586.50 14.00 0.89 1,588.00 1,451.50
Tin ($/mt)* LME 17,225.00 375.00 2.23 17,225.00 13,225.00
Yen, euro vs. dollar; dollar vs. major U.S. trading partners US$vs,
Tue YTDchg Copper ($/mt)* LME 4,989.50 79.50 1.62 4,989.50 4,320.50
8% Country/currency in US$ per US$ (%) Lead ($/mt)* LME 1,888.00 41.00 2.22 1,888.00 1,598.00
6 Euro
s
WSJ Dollar index Europe Zinc ($/mt)* LME 1,839.00 -4.00 -0.22 1,843.00 1,467.00
4 s
Bulgaria lev 0.5642 1.7724 –1.5 Nickel ($/mt)* LME 9,400.00 345.00 3.81 9,400.00 7,750.00
2
Croatia kuna 0.1457 6.863 –2.1 Rubber (Y.01/ton) TCE 175.20 -2.30 -1.30 180.00 154.10
0
Euro zone euro 1.1032 0.9065 –1.6
–2 Palm oil (MYR/mt) MDEX 2529.00 -8.00 -0.32 2,653.00 2,425.00
Czech Rep. koruna-b 0.0408 24.516 –1.5
–4 s
Denmark krone 0.1478 6.7652 –1.6 Crude oil ($/bbl.) NYMEX 36.23 -1.67 -4.41 40.50 28.74
–6 Yen
Hungary forint 0.003558 281.03 –3.2 NY Harbor ULSD ($/gal.) NYMEX 1.1976 -0.0249 -2.04 1.2425 0.8750
–8 Iceland krona 0.007775 128.62 –1.2
–10 RBOB gasoline ($/gal.) NYMEX 1.3819 -0.0108 -0.78 1.5695 1.1253
Norway krone 0.1171 8.5372 –3.5
0.2552 3.9189 –0.1
Natural gas ($/mmBtu) NYMEX 1.717 0.027 1.60 2.5120 1.6110
2015 2016 Poland zloty
Russia ruble-d 0.01373 72.859 1.3 Brent crude ($/bbl.) ICE-EU 39.43 -1.41 -3.45 41.48 28.58
US$vs, US$vs,
YTDchg YTDchg Sweden krona 0.1180 8.4760 0.4 Gas oil ($/ton) ICE-EU 359.75 -0.50 -0.14 374.00 260.25
Tue Tue
Country/currency in US$ per US$ (%) Country/currency in US$ per US$ (%) Switzerland franc 1.0067 0.9933 –0.9
Turkey lira 0.3436 2.9103 –0.3 Sources: SIX Financial Information; WSJ Market Data Group
Americas Hong Kong dollar 0.1287 7.7675 0.2
Ukraine hryvnia 0.0381 26.2220 9.3
Argentina peso-a 0.0648 15.4370 19.3
India rupee
Indonesia rupiah
0.0149
0.0000758
67.3085 1.7
13192 –4.7
U.K. pound 1.4238 0.7023 3.5 Cross rates London close on Mar 8
Brazil real 0.2657 3.7643 –5.0 Middle East/Africa
Japan yen 0.008888 112.51 –6.5
Canada dollar 0.7475 1.3378 –3.3 USD GBP CHF JPY HKD EUR CDN AUD
Kazakhstan tenge 0.002894 345.60 2.0 Bahrain dinar 2.6529 0.3770 –0.04
Chile peso 0.001466 681.90 –3.8 Australia 1.3408 1.9092 1.3501 0.0119 0.1726 1.4792 1.0027 ...
Macau pataca 0.1250 8.0031 –0.01 Egypt pound-a 0.1277 7.8320 0.03
Colombia peso 0.0003139 3185.89 0.4 Canada 1.3378 1.9045 1.3468 0.0119 0.1722 1.4753 ... 0.9973
Malaysia ringgit-c 0.2424 4.1261 –4.1 Israel shekel 0.2561 3.9040 0.3
Ecuador US dollar-f 1 1 unch
New Zealand dollar 0.6778 1.4754 0.8 Kuwait dinar 3.3278 0.3005 –1.0 Euro 0.9065 1.2906 0.9126 0.0081 0.1167 ... 0.6778 0.6759
Mexico peso-a 0.0558 17.9249 4.2
Pakistan rupee 0.0095 104.765 –0.1 Oman sul rial 2.5978 0.3849 –0.01 Hong Kong 7.7675 11.0593 7.8206 0.0690 ... 8.5690 5.8064 5.7914
Peru sol 0.2896 3.4532 1.1
Philippines peso 0.0213 46.953 0.2 Qatar rial 0.2746 3.641 –0.03 Japan 112.5130 160.1900 113.2700 ... 14.4850 124.1100 84.1188 83.9100
Uruguay peso-e 0.0311 32.190 7.6
Singapore dollar 0.7232 1.3828 –2.5 Saudi Arabia riyal 0.2667 3.7502 –0.1 0.9933 1.4144 ... 0.0088 0.1279 1.0958 0.7425 0.7407
Venezuela bolivar 0.158595 6.31 0.005 Switzerland
South Korea won 0.0008282 1207.45 2.7 South Africa rand 0.0650 15.3916 –0.5
U.K. 0.7023 ... 0.7070 0.0062 0.0904 0.7749 0.5251 0.5238
Asia-Pacific Sri Lanka rupee 0.0069008 144.91 0.5 Close Net Chg % Chg YTD % Chg
0.7458 1.3408 –2.3 Taiwan dollar 0.03047 32.814 –0.3 U.S. ... 1.4238 1.0067 0.0089 0.1287 1.1032 0.7475 0.7458
Australia dollar WSJ Dollar Index 88.60 –0.05 –0.05 –1.75
China yuan 0.1537 6.5054 0.2 Thailand baht 0.02827 35.370 –1.8 Sources: Tullett Prebon, WSJ Market Data Group Source: Tullett Prebon
Continued from page B5 plement the new chip-based clined to comment. the sale of higher-denomina-
American Express Co. that card technology, making them Kun Niu used to buy tion open-loop cards.
can be used anywhere and that more vulnerable to fraud, pay- Visa gift cards regularly at his The company said the issue
are affected by the new limits. ments specialists said. local Safeway in Dublin, Calif., will likely fade as more retail-
Gift cards also are a favor- Kroger is in the midst of but said the store recently ers begin accepting chip cards.
ite among criminals, who pay upgrading its checkout equip- stopped selling them. The Chip cards are designed to
for them with stolen credit- ment to accept chip cards and computer programmer said he limit a criminal’s ability to
card data. Historically, the expects to complete the over- now plans to go to a drugstore create counterfeit cards by
cost of that fraud was borne haul by the end of the month. to buy the cards, which he creating a unique code for
by the financial institutions To ward off thieves, the grocer uses to pay his mortgage each transaction. That is dif-
that issued the credit cards. is limiting the number through a third-party website ferent from cards that contain
That changed in October, when of gift-card purchases that are instead of writing a check. a traditional magnetic strip on
new card-industry rules went made on a credit card within a The restrictions are having the back, which contains static
into effect making merchants 24-hour period, said Chris other ramifications. Black- data about the cardholder’s
liable for fraud-related losses Hjelm, the chain’s chief infor- Gift cards are often bought using stolen credit-card data. hawk Network Holdings Inc., account that can be used to
if they haven’t upgraded their mation officer. which distributes gift cards to create a counterfeit card.
checkout technology to accept “We have done some differ- whether they should revise In one case last summer, retailers, said its revenue While the chip itself won’t
credit cards that are embed- ent things for nonchip trans- gift-card purchase policies. He police in Petaluma, Calif., said growth will be hit this year stop a thief from hacking into
ded with computer chips, actions to make sure we are said the trade group’s mem- a couple used a stolen partly due to new gift-card a merchant’s payment system,
which are more secure. mitigating the risk,” he said. bers are “reporting a signifi- credit card to buy $15,000 of policies at chains that aren’t any stolen information from a
Kroger Co. and Albertsons Mr. Hjelm declined to discuss cant uptick in suspected gift cards at a store. ready to meet the new chip- chip card is virtually useless
Cos. Inc. unit Safeway are further details, saying “the fraud.” Such crimes contrib- Shoppers at Safeway stores card rules. because the data change each
among those that are clamp- bad guys would love to know.” uted to $3.89 billion in coun- in recent weeks have noticed “Some of our retail distri- time the card is used.
ing down, people familiar with Greg Ferrara, senior vice terfeit payment-card losses clerks removing open- bution partners who are not But the technology works
their strategies said. president of government rela- that were incurred by issuers loop gift cards from the racks, compliant have taken mea- only if chip cards are pro-
“Gift cards are a challenge,” tions at the National Grocers in 2014, according to the Nil- according to postings at online sures to limit exposure to cessed on machines that are
said Mallory Duncan, general Association, said smaller son Report, a payments news- message boards. Other Safe- those credit-card losses in upgraded to accept chip pay-
counsel at the National Retail chains also are thinking about letter. way shoppers have said that their stores,” Chief Executive ments.
Email: heard@wsj.com
HEARD ON THE STREET FINANCIAL ANALYSIS & COMMENTARY WSJ.com/Heard
No Easy Bargains for Burberry’s Mystery Investor The Brazilian miner may
eventually buy up to 15% of
the Australian company’s
Selling the luxury sector is interest, taxes, depreciation value of £6.5 billion ($9.3 bil- turns over about €5,000 for Burberry’s sales, according shares in the open market,
so last year. News that and amortization. Its shares lion), would be an easier tar- every square foot of store to Brewin Dolphin—could plus invest in some of
a mystery investor has been also have substantially out- get; the company is a rarity space, according to UBS, accelerate, restoring like-for- Fortescue’s mines. These as-
building a 5% stake in British performed those of Burberry in the luxury-goods world for compared with under €2,000 like growth. This crucial pects of the alliance aren’t
high-fashion group Burberry over the past year, as inves- not having a controlling at Burberry. metric has been unusually set in stone. Vale’s high net
sent the shares up 6% on tors have sought refuge from shareholder group. Another explanation for volatile in Burberry’s finan- debt and lack of free cash
Tuesday morning. Not for the luxury downturn in its But LVMH already makes the stake-building is that an cial year so far, which runs flow seem an impediment.
the first time, LVMH has diversity of brands, which over half its profits from investor or activist has sim- through March—up 6% in the By tossing each other a
been touted as a potential range from Louis Vuitton to clothes, handbags and suit- ply spotted an opportunity. first quarter, down 4% in the lifeline, however, the pair en-
bidder. TAG Heuer. cases. Buying Burberry But Burberry shares have second, flat in the third. sure each other’s output re-
But it isn’t clear why LVMH’s boss Bernard Ar- would compound the imbal- risen by a fifth this year. Co- Alternatively, costs could mains high. If Vale does
LVMH would want Burberry. nault, still France’s richest ance. inciding with cuts to earn- be sliced, perhaps after re- drum up the cash to take a
And for a more opportunistic man, is no stranger to anony- It would also hurt mar- ings forecasts, that has placing Christopher Bailey, stake in Fortescue, that
investor, Burberry’s shares mous stake-building. In 2010 gins. Burberry made a 14% pushed their forward earn- the lead designer cum chief could keep away rivals who
already are pricing in an the group used derivatives to adjusted operating margin in ings multiple above 20 times. executive, with a numbers wanted to control Fortescue
earnings revival. accumulate a clandestine 17% the six months to Septem- Buying today is therefore a man. An activist seems more and reduce production.
The French bellwether interest in rival Hermès. Mr. ber—half the 28% reported wager that profits can re- likely to be interested in this A Vale-Fortescue alliance
certainly has the financial Arnault finally sold his by LVMH’s fashion and bound. more controllable strategy. spells plenty of supply for
wherewithal, with net debt stake in 2014 under legal leather-goods division for It seems an odd time to be No wonder Burberry is eager the foreseeable future. That
of €4.2 billion ($4.6 billion) pressure from the controlling 2015. That reflects lower betting that demand growth to know what its new inves- is a reason the rally in iron-
at the end of 2015 just half family. prices and therefore sales from Chinese consumers— tor is up to. ore prices could end soon.
of expected earnings before Burberry, with a market densities: Louis Vuitton who account for some 40% of —Stephen Wilmot —Abheek Bhattacharya