Revisiting Industrial Policy and Industrialization in Twentieth Century Latin America

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Revista de Estudios Sociales

68 | 2019
Revisitando la industrialización latinoamericana en el
siglo XX: entre el Estado y el mercado

Revisiting Industrial Policy and Industrialization


in Twentieth Century Latin America
Revisitando la política industrial y la industrialización en la América Latina del
siglo XX
Revisitando a política industrial e a industrialização na América Latina do
século XX

Andrés Álvarez and Carlos Andrés Brando

Electronic version
URL: http://journals.openedition.org/revestudsoc/31628
ISSN: 1900-5180

Publisher
Universidad de los Andes

Printed version
Date of publication: 1 April 2019
Number of pages: 02-07
ISSN: 0123-885X

Electronic reference
Andrés Álvarez and Carlos Andrés Brando, « Revisiting Industrial Policy and Industrialization in
Twentieth Century Latin America », Revista de Estudios Sociales [Online], 68 | 2019, Online since 12 April
2019, connection on 14 May 2019. URL : http://journals.openedition.org/revestudsoc/31628

Los contenidos de la Revista de Estudios Sociales están editados bajo la licencia Creative Commons
Attribution 4.0 International.
2

Revisiting Industrial Policy and Industrialization in Twentieth


Century Latin America*

Andrés Álvarez** – Carlos Andrés Brando***

Received date: February 15, 2019· Acceptance date: February 20, 2019· Modiication date: March 11, 2019
https://doi.org/10.7440/res68.2019.01

How to cite: Álvarez, Andrés & Carlos Andrés Brando. 2019. “Revisiting Industrial Policy and Industrialization in Twentieth
Century Latin America”. Revista de Estudios Sociales 68: 2-7. https://doi.org/10.7440/res68.2019.01

A B S T R AC T | This brief article seeks to introduce the reader to this special number on industrialization in
contemporary Latin America. It does so considering three issues. First, the importance of industrialization in
sustaining high rates of economic growth leading to high levels of income per capita. Second, the long-standing
debate in global historiography regarding the successes and failures of industrial policy: markets vs. states.
Lastly, Latin America´s industrial trajectory through the lenses of four historiographical tendencies, and the
ways in which each of the four original papers relate to the extant literature, and contribute to enhancing our
understanding of one of the most important economic transformations in the history of the region.

K E Y W O R D S | Historiography; industrialization; industrial policy; Latin America

Revisitando la política industrial y la industrialización en la América Latina del siglo XX

R E S U M E N | Este breve artículo busca ofrecerle al lector una introducción a este número especial dedicado a la
industrialización en América Latina contemporánea. Para este propósito se consideran tres asuntos. Primero,
la importancia de la industrialización para mantener altas tasas de crecimiento económico que conduzcan
a altos niveles de ingreso per cápita. Segundo, el debate historiográico global de larga data sobre los éxitos
y fracasos de la política industrial: mercado versus Estados. Por último, la trayectoria industrial de América
Latina desde los lentes de cuatro tendencias historiográicas, y cómo como cada uno de los artículos originales
de este dossier se articula con la literatura existente y contribuye a mejorar nuestra comprensión sobre una de
las transformaciones más importantes en la historia de la región.

PA L A B R A S C L AV E | América Latina; historiografía; industrialización; política industrial

Revisitando a política industrial e a industrialização na América Latina do século XX

R E S U M O | Este breve artigo busca apresentar ao leitor este número especial dedicado à industrialização na
América Latina contemporânea. Para este propósito, três assuntos são considerados. Primeiro, a importância

* This text is result of the authors’reflections following the “1st Workshop Revisiting Latin America´s Industrial Policy and Industri-
alization in the Twentieth Century”, held at Universidad de los Andes (Bogotá, Colombia) on May 2017, and jointly convened by the
Political Sciences and Economics Departments of Universidad de los Andes and Banco de la República.
** Ph.D. in Economics, Université de Paris-X Nanterre, France. Associate Professor at the Economics Faculty at Universidad de los
Andes, Colombia. Latest publications: “The Quarrel of Development Experts: Lauchlin Currie and Albert O. Hirschman in Colombia”
(Andrés Guiot-Isaac and Jimena Hurtado, co-authors). History of Political Economy, 2019 forthcoming; “Symposium on Latin American
Monetary Thought: Two Centuries in Search of Originality” (editor). In Research in the History of Economic Thought and Methodology,
Vol. 36C, edited by Fiorito, Luca, Scott Scheall & Carlos Eduardo Suprinyak, 3-100, 2019. * ca.alvarez967@uniandes.edu.co
*** PhD in Economic History, London School of Economics and Political Science, United Kingdom. Dean at the Economics and Business
Administration Faculty, Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozano, Colombia. Latest publications: “Winners and losers in the allocation of
credit during the era of import-substitution industrialisation in Colombia, 1940-1967”. Ensayos sobre Política Económica 34 (79):
21-39, 2016; “Historiografía industrial colombiana del siglo veinte”. In Estudios sobre la Industria en América Latina, coordinated by
Marcelo Rougier, 77-123, 2016. Buenos Aires: Lenguaje claro Editora. * carlosa.brandos@utadeo.edu.co
DOSSIER 3

da industrialização na manutenção de altos índices de crescimento econômico que conduziram a altos índices
de ingresso per capita. Segundo, o antigo debate na historiograia global sobre os sucessos e os fracassos da
política industrial: mercado versus estado. Por último, a trajetória industrial da América Latina através das
lentes de quatro tendências historiográicas e as maneiras em que cada um dos artigos originais deste dossiê
se articulam com a literatura existente e contribuem para melhorar nossa compreensão sobre uma das mais
importantes transformações econômicas na história da região.

PA L AV R A S - C H AV E | América Latina; historiograia; industrialização; política industrial

Ever since Britain irst industrialised, other nations Schematically, industrialization can take place in three
followed over the world. Amongst the early successful broad ways: as a by-product of wealth in a dynamic pri-
late-comers to industrialization emerged neighbouring mary sector, via Import-Substituting Industrialization
Belgium and the Netherlands. As the nineteenth cen- (ISI), or through Export-Oriented Industrialization (EOI).
tury came to a close and the twentieth started, others The irst kind originates from increases in agricultural
were rapidly catching up with Britain; namely, France, productivity or by an export boom that boosts incomes,
Germany and Switzerland. On the eve of WWI, of- creating demand for domestic manufacturing (Murphy,
shoots of Europe, such as the USA and Canada, already Shleifer & Vishny 1989, 537). The second, ISI, aims at
outperformed it. During the Golden Age of the post- reducing imports in order to promote the production of
war years, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, and Japan also domestic substitutes. If pursued fully, this path is often
underwent accelerating industrialization. And in the said to consist of two parts: primary ISI, entailing the
last third of the twentieth century, late-latecomers shift from imports to the local manufacture of basic con-
in East Asia —South Korea and Taiwan— entered the sumer goods, and secondary ISI, involving the domestic
selected group of industrialised nations. All the above production of capital- and technology-intensive man-
represent successful cases of industrialization. Dozens ufactures: consumer durables, and intermediate and
of other countries in Latin America, Eastern Europe, capital goods (Gerei 1990, 17). Lastly, EOI focuses on
Africa, and Asia, however, embarked upon industrial- speeding-up the process of industrialization through
ising projects and failed (by wide margins) to match the exporting manufactured goods for which the economy
levels attained by the former. Why did so many nations in question has (or develops) a comparative advantage.
seek to industrialise? How did they attempt and man- It often involves a relatively more open economy than
age to transform their economies? And why did some that of ISI, and relies heavily on foreign markets.
succeed where others succumbed?
Sadly, none of these paths guarantees efective indus-
Rapid industrial growth accompanied by econo- trial transformation. Markets are imperfect. Markets
my-wide structural change, i.e., industrialization, has fail. And states, aiming to correct these failures, are
historically proven to be closely associated with ris- fallible. Thus, industrial policies designed to alter an
ing per capita incomes in real terms. In other words, economy´s structure of incentives, prompting agents
industrialization seems to be the surest road to rich- to save, invest or consume a certain amount or in a par-
es. As a well-known economic historian, notes: “For ticular manner, are remarkably diicult to implement
real and sustained development there is no substitute fruitfully. Diagnoses of, and prescriptions for, indus-
for industrialization” (O’Brien 1998, xiv). For decades, trial policy have recently come full circle in historio-
economists studying modern economic growth have graphical terms.
considered that the key to high and sustained growth
lies with industrialization.1 When industry turns into According to Shapiro (2007), during the late 1940s and
the leading sector of the economy, driven by advances 1950s the arguments posited by Prebisch and Singer
and applications derived from scientiic and techno- on a secular deterioration in the terms of trade (typi-
logical progress, total productivity rises, manufactur- cally set against exporters of primary commodities in
ing employment grows, wages increase, consumption the periphery), combined with views about endemic
expands, and standards of living improve. In short, market failure, prompted pro-industrialization pol-
industry holds the key to the wealth of nations. This icies supported by theories about a ‘big push’ and
explains why over the last two centuries so many have the need to coordinate investments. But support for
aspired to industrialise. interventionism rose and fell rather quickly. By the
early 1970s, a resounding theoretical and empirical
backlash followed, led by the likes of Krueger (1974)
and Balassa (1971) who, emphasising macroeconom-
1 See, for instance, Rostow 1960, and Chenery & Syrquin 1975.
ic imbalances, ineicient distortions, and extensive

Revisiting Industrial Policy and Industrialization in Twentieth Century Latin America | Andrés Álvarez · Carlos Andrés Brando
4 DOSSIER

opportunities for rent-seeking behaviour produced by Policies, at irst essayed to mitigate the efects of the
interventionist industrial policies (particularly guided global crisis, slowly led to the exploration and, later,
by import-substitution), shifted the pendulum back to the consolidation of a development strategy that in
policy prescriptions highlighting free trade and unfet- practice preferred to look inward. Import-Substituting
tered markets. In short, state failure proved worse than Industrialization (ISI) came to be decisively sponsored
market failure —or so it seemed. Recently, however, the by many Latin American states. Commercial protection-
rehabilitation of state activism rolled the debate back, ism was the paradigmatic feature of the new model, but
at least half-way, refashioning justiications for inter- this was complemented by extensive access to inanc-
vention in critical areas where markets do not always ing/funding at subsidised rates, overvalued exchange
deliver, mainly technological capacity, and learning rates favouring industrial imports, direct production of
and knowledge accumulation at the irm level (Bruton manufactured goods by state-owned enterprises, wel-
1998; Amsden 2001; Wade 1990; Chang 1994). The pos- coming of foreign capital under generous terms and
itive reconsiderations about the state and its proactive conditions, and development of infrastructure projects
industrial policies have been inspired chiely by the targeted to the sector —amongst other measures (Baer
economic ‘miracles’ experienced by two East Asian 1972; Franko 2007; Ffrench-Davis, Muñoz & Palma
countries mentioned above: Taiwan and South Korea. 1998). At this point, the diversity of interpretations
In this sense, as market failure returns, and the state is and emphases in the various strands of the literature
(again) called upon to respond, the debate on industrial is most evident. Post-war industrialization in Latin
policy has come full circle. America has thus been construed in distinctly critical
and original ways through the lenses of at least four
Latin America´s history of industrialization in the historiographical tendencies.
twentieth century is best synthesised by Love: “fact
before policy, and policy before theory” (1996, 209). A Dependency theorists, such as Cardoso and Faletto
literature review is beyond the scope of the current pre- (1979), argue that global capitalism, through direct capi-
sentation, yet the recognition of well-known periodiza- tal investment, resulted in the persistence of the region´s
tions, the identiication of the relevant historiographies for underdevelopment. Thus, industrialization did not
the papers herein, as well as the referencing of both key eliminate the dependency problem. Sharing profound
studies and the most representative authors are neces- pessimism for the industrial development of the period,
sary to properly locate the contributions of this issue.2 neoclassical accounts have underscored three aspects of
the ISI experience. First, the missed opportunity for Lat-
Early industrial growth, often associated (in multiple in America (in growth terms) entailed by cutting itself
ways) with the production of agrarian and mineral of from international markets during one of the most
exporting, has been well documented for the end of the dynamic periods in the history of global trade. Second,
nineteenth century and the beginning of the twentieth the ‘legendary’ costs incurred as result of the policies
throughout most of the region.3 The Crisis of 1929, and implemented in pursuit of ISI, which distorted prices,
the Great Depression that followed, proved a watershed particularly in capital and foreign exchange markets. In
event that transformed both the nature of industrial other words, a serious misallocation of scarce resources.
development and also the pace of the sector´s growth. Lastly, excessive and protracted protectionism encour-
As governments in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, aged ineicient industrial irms, which in turn led to
Mexico, Venezuela, and Uruguay reacted to collapsing high concentration of markets (cartels and oligopolies),
commodity prices, the disruption of capital inlows, low levels of productivity, and frail competitive forces
aggravating monetary disorders, and the decline in iscal (Taylor 1998; Solimano 1996; Edwards 1995).
revenues for states in early stages of formation, industry
and industrialists tended to beneit from changing rela- New Institutional Economics has also made signiicant
tive prices and the reassessment of a model of growth contributions to the debate. Concerned to a large extent
and development which had seriously underestimated with the political economy of growing state interven-
the vulnerabilities of these economies to external shocks tionism during industrialization, Haber (2006) ques-
(Diaz Alejandro 1982 & 1984; Thorp 1992). tions the coherence and purposive authority of Latin
American governments committing to a long-term ISI
development strategy, which materialised in carefully
thought-out plans. Rather, he claims, states came to
support industry because it served the self-interest of
2 For a recent publication focusing on the industrial histo- powerful groups, that is, industrial unions, industri-
riographies of six individual countries in Latin America, see alists, and public oicials. The quasi-permanent ad hoc
Rougier (ed.) 2016. nature of state interventionism that deined the region´s
3 Medium- and large-size nations. For an overview of the industrial policies and industrialization led to the same
trends and the details of the mechanisms linking the exter- suboptimal outcomes in terms of eiciency, extraction
nal sector with the early development of manufacturing of rents, and productivity, for both the sector and the
industries see: Bulmer-Thomas 2006 ([1995]); Salvucci 2006;
and Lewis 2002.
economy, that neoclassical narratives had identiied.

rev.estud.soc. No. 68 • abril-junio • Pp. 2-7 • ISSN 0123-885X • e-ISSN 1900-5180 · https://doi.org/10.7440/res68.2019.01
DOSSIER 5

Lastly, structuralist scholars, for their part, have nota- the ideal of industrialization and the debate between
bly distanced themselves from previous accounts. market-led vs. state-led have not disappeared but
Anchored to the Centre-Periphery structure as unit transformed. This intellectual battle must be reconsid-
of analysis, these authors have ofered more sanguine ered in the light of empirical facts. But, it is important
interpretations of industrial performance. Katz and to bear in mind that the diferent interpretations of
Kosacof (2000) have emphasised, along with Cárdenas, these empirical facts are permeated by the analytical
Ocampo, and Thorp (2000), the technological learning approaches we sketched above. This is a central message
accrued to Latin American industrialisers stemmed of Colin Lewis’ article: aiming at reappraising the main
from the development of domestic industries. They economic and political consequences of the classical
have also stressed the long-run signiicance of eforts Cepalismo requires to avoid a lecture based on a car-
made at institution-building, intended to support indus- icatured representation of the 1950s-1970s period as
try, as beneitting non-industrial activities as well. In the moment of invention of state-led pro-industrial-
recent structural narratives, industrialization from the ization policies followed by a pro-market deindustri-
1930s/40s to the early 1980s, is said to have positively alization doctrine. This is also an important starting
contributed to the highest rates of economic growth point for professor Mona Lyne’s article.
Latin America has ever experienced, and the process is
unapologetically described as having been ‘state-led’. Professor Lyne (2019) proposes taking seriously the
concept of structure that underpins the structuralist
The balance of state-led policies adopted by Latin ideas of what Colin Lewis calls the classical period of
American states and their efects is not entirely conclu- Cepalismo, speciically Dependency theories. The novel
sive. Although it can be acknowledged that, overall, the contribution of Mona Lyne’s analysis lies in locating the
expected goals of the industrialization policies were restrictions of political economy and the institutional-
not achieved, some authors rescue some partial or ist conceptual approach as the most relevant character-
temporary positive efects. In this dossier, we present istics of structuralist ideas.
a selection of articles analysing the central questions
mentioned at the opening of this presentation from Using the conceptual framework developed by Norht,
diferent angles. Some of them aim at giving a com- Wallis and Weingast (2009), this analysis allows her
prehensive interpretation of the economic and polit- to conclude that what characterizes the application of
ical context of the production and implementation of “extreme” state intervention policies in the process of
ideas. Some emphasize particular cases and empirical industrialization is that such degree of interventionism
evidence. And others privilege a regional approach was necessary to be able to overcome political restric-
through a political economy lens. tions. It was characterized precisely by the institutional
forms and in particular the diiculty that states, and
Colin Lewis (2019) shows that, in order to better under- therefore politicians, had in establishing a legitimate
stand and assess the consequences of these industrial- monopoly of force and the enforcement of property
ization policies, one must adopt an approach based on a rights. In this context, which Professor Lyne calls a
novel stylized periodization of the long-term evolution Limited Access Order (LAO), the implementation of
of industrialization in Latin America, as a better frame- import-substitution policies led to the creation of pro-
work to evaluate the consequences of Cepalismo. By ductive privileges and selective protectionism in order
placing industrialization policies in a longer perspec- to secure the support of various political forces.
tive, one can identify an industrializing ideal whose
origins date back to the early days of Latin American Following this interpretation, the drifts of the
republics. The main message of his contribution can be import-substitution policy that blurred the tools
summarized by a feature shared with other papers in proposed by the structuralist ideals are, paradoxical-
this dossier: ideas played a crucial part in the industrial- ly, the result of what the structuralist intellectuals
ization process and explain the successes and missteps themselves conceived as deep political restrictions to
of the various paths followed by each country. Placing the social and economic change necessary to achieve
ECLAC ideas within an extended history, professor industrialization. This idea allows us then to comple-
Lewis proposes diferentiating between successive ment professor Colin’s proposal, since it adds new
forms, and phases, of Cepalismo. Beginning with a form meaning to the ideological transformation sufered by
of Cepalismo before ECLAC, characterized by an ideal of the original Cepalismo and partly explains the abrupt
autonomous industrialization, followed by a period policy changes derived from the wrong course taken
of a more active role of the state, aimed at achieving by the mechanisms of import-substitution and income
an accelerated and “forced industrialization process”. redistribution in Latin American countries.
This period, extending from the Great Depression to the
creation of ECLAC (1948), created a fertile ground for Julia Eder’s article (2019) studies the problems of polit-
Classic Cepalismo (1940s-1960s). Finally, the last third of ical economy at a diferent level. She invites us to
the twentieth century and the irst important economic think about the political processes of regional integra-
crisis of the twenty-irst century (2008) revealed how tion, beyond the internal policies and the local power

Revisiting Industrial Policy and Industrialization in Twentieth Century Latin America | Andrés Álvarez · Carlos Andrés Brando
6 DOSSIER

structure within each country. This work then seeks to ofer their analyses of these phenomena. Some points
analyse to what extent the failure of structuralist poli- should be highlighted from these interviews. The irst
cies, and in particular the mechanisms of the ISI strat- is the need to recognise the heterogeneity of the pro-
egy, were limited by the diiculty in achieving regional cesses between various countries. They show that it is
integration in Latin America. This paper shows how important to recognize that the chronology of the facts,
the commercial tensions generated by the adoption of the intensity and extent of the use of industrialization
protectionist policies were not always present during policies, and the external shocks afected Latin Amer-
the phases most clearly dominated by the Dependentist ican countries diferently. An example of this lies in
ideas. In particular, professor Eder shows that there was the peculiarities of the Colombian case, highlighted by
a wave of regional integration fostered by ECLAC and Adolfo Meisel. Colombia, unlike other Latin American
that sought to create a broader market and therefore countries, was not so extensively exposed to industrial-
further economic autonomy, not only on the supply ization policies, nor did it sufer the magnitude of exter-
side, but also on internal demand capacity in the region. nal shocks and macroeconomic instabilities as other
countries. However, the heterogeneity of policies and
The disappointment with regard to industrialization clashes did not prevent the process of industrialization
policies also led to a revision of the regional integration and economic policy transformations from happening
approach. Countries turned to a more open integration in Colombia as well as in the rest of Latin America, espe-
process outside the region, and external public debt cri- cially towards the end of the twentieth century.
ses ended up giving the inal blow to ECLAC’s intentions
to promote regional integration. Later, Kaufman and Meisel make a call to understand
how external shocks to Latin American economies
Finally, this dossier closes with a case study based on a were not purely exogenous. Much of the vulnerabili-
novel interpretation of the transition period between SLI ties of these economies, and in particular their external
policies and a decrease in state intervention in Argenti- debt crises, were the result of their iscal policies and
na´s economy. In this work, Marcelo Rougier and Juan the blunders in the implementation of import-substi-
Odisio (2019), not only provide a new interpretation of tution policies. Finally, Meisel and Kaufman under-
the facts but also ofer new evidence to support it. This score the importance of considering the way in which
inal article points out that, in the case of Argentina, some the political economy of the processes of adoption of
virtuous efects occurred, especially in terms of the per- industrialization policies and their subsequent aban-
formance of certain export-oriented economic sectors, donment are intimately linked with the diiculties of
as a consequence of import-substitution and manufac- the Latin American countries in consolidating a market
turing promotion policies. Their study shows that this suiciently consistent with the ambitions of industrial-
process, which reached its peak in the period 1960-75, ization. This last point discusses the diiculties of Latin
was abruptly interrupted by a policy change after the American economic and political integration.
crisis of the mid-1970s. According to the authors, a delib-
erate policy of deindustrialization was adopted.
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Revisiting Industrial Policy and Industrialization in Twentieth Century Latin America | Andrés Álvarez · Carlos Andrés Brando

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