Refex Industries

Owner's Earning Operating Cashflow - Maintenance Expenses

(in lakhs) 2019

Operating cash flow (a) 4418
Maintenance Expense(b) 54.7
Owner's Earning (a-b) 4363.3
Growth Rate (5%) FROM MSN FINANCE LOOKING AT EARNING
CHART TOP HEADLINE 5%
Discount Rate (10 year govt. yield on 1th oct 2020) 8.18%
Shares outstanding (IN LAKHS) FROM MSN FINANCE 210
EPS PER SHARE - ( C ) 20.77762
Terminal Value TV = (FCFn x (1 + g)) / (WACC – g)

Value per share 21.1835

Working of Maintenance Expense

Maintenance Expense= Capital Expenditure from Cash Flow Statement - C
change in plant equipments (taken from increase plants and
building from balance sheet) 160-(1485.57-1430.87)
160-105.3
Maintenance Expense= 54.7
- Maintenance Expenses *numbers are from 2019 annual report

/ (WACC – g)

from Cash Flow Statement - Change in plant and Equipment

Most Value / Least Price

Value = Net Earning + Dividend

Price = Price to Book

Net Earning PER SHARE 11.4 12.82 15.4

Average Earning 13.20667

Price to Book Current price / Book 225/77.6 2.899485

Value/ Price 4.554833

Scores under 2 the stock will fall

Scores under 2 and 10 the stock is average
Scores above 10 stock will rise
Just Dial
EPS TTM 45.73
Growth rate 9.7
Discount Rate(rate I plan to make) 15%
Margin of safety 50%
P/E ratio( 5 year highest) 38.15 (Can either take 2 times the growth rate phil town recommendation. On Msn
P/E ratio( 5 year lowest) 7.02 (I am taking average of the high and low p/e ratios given in tab.)
Average of both 22.585 ( Take the lowest of either one as well)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Projected EPS
(TAKING EPS TTM AND GROWTH
RATE FROM ABOVE) 45.73 49.8457 54.33181 59.22168 64.55163 70.36127 76.69379
637.6454 733.2922 843.286 969.7789 1115.246 1282.533 1474.913

Fair Value 637.65

Price after margin of safety 318.825
commendation. On Msn finance under analysis tab , go to price ratio sub-tab to find historical p/e)
ven in tab.)

8 9 10

83.59623 91.11989 99.32068

1696.149 1950.572 2243.158
Just Dial

Growth Rate (1-5)(from yahoo finance, analyst estimate)

Growth Rate (6-10)(taking 1/2 of first 5 years)
Discount Rate (As told in Dhando Investor book)
Terminal Value (FCF) (Pabari suggests taking 10 to 15 times range)
Year 1 Free Cash Flow Operating Cash Flow - Investing Cash Flow)
Excess Capital (FROM YAHOO FINANCE UNDER STATISTICS TAB IN BALANCE SHEET TAKE TOTAL CASH)

working for free cash flow

operating cash flow(FROM MONEY CONTROL)
investing cash flow (FROM MONEY CONTROL)
OPERATING cash flow - INVESTING CASHFLOW
 9.70% YEAR FCF PV
4.8 1 25.66 23.32727
10% 2 28.14902 25.59002
10 3 30.87947 28.07225
25.66 4 33.87478 30.79526
563.8 5 37.16064 33.7824
6 38.94435 35.40395
7 40.81368 37.10334
8 42.77273 38.8843
9 44.82583 40.75075
10 46.97746 42.70679

(Assuming we can sell business at 10

times free cash flow at end of year 10) 10 469.7746 427.0679
PV OF FUTURE FREE CASH FLOW 763.4842

INTRINSIC VALUE(PV OF FREE CASH

FLOW+ CASH BALANCE ON BALANCE
SHEET) 1327.284
Current Market Cap 2517.93
Just Dial is over valued
Enterprise Value Market Cap +Debt - Excess Cash
2517.93+0-563.8
Enterprise Value 1954.13

152.56
-126.9
25.66