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Comparative study of stochastic slope stability analysis based on conditional

and unconditional random field

Article  in  Computers and Geotechnics · September 2020

DOI: 10.1016/j.compgeo.2020.103707

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Ali Johari Hossein Fooladi

Shiraz University of Technology Shiraz University of Technology
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Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Computers and Geotechnics

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/compgeo

Technical Communication

Comparative study of stochastic slope stability analysis based on conditional

and unconditional random field
⁎
A. Johari , H. Fooladi
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Shiraz University of Technology, Shiraz, Iran

A RTI C L E I NFO A B S T R A C T

Keywords: In this study, by coupling the conditional and unconditional random field with finite element methods, the
Slope stability stability of a real slope is investigated. In the first method, which is used for the case of an Unconditional
Conditional and unconditional random field Random Field (URF), the analysis is carried out similar to the approach of the Random Finite Element Method
Reliability index (RFEM) using the mean and standard deviation (std.) of soil parameters derived from all boreholes. In the
Random finite element method
second, which is a Conditional Random Field (CRF), the soil parameters are mapped onto the selected analysis
Geostatistical estimations
section and are then predicted on the section mesh elements based on geostatistical estimations. As outputs of
the stochastic analysis, the probability density functions of safety factor and maximum lateral displacement of
the slope from the two methods are compared with each other. The results of this case study indicate that the use
of the CRF affects not only the std. of the safety factor and maximum lateral displacement distribution but can
also cause variations in the mean value. Furthermore, the system reliability index of the slope stability decreases
when the analysis is done based on the URF.

1. Introduction
Solving of the geological and geotechnical problems is highly de-
pendent on reliable estimates of soil parameters. Among these pro-
blems, an increasing effort to investigate the reliability of slopes in the
spatially variable of soil layers have been exerted in recent years (Jiang
et al., 2014; Qi and Li, 2018; Liu et al., 2019; Johari and Rahmati,
2019). On the other hand, the determined safety factors in the con-
ventional slope stability analysis are not able to consider the un-
certainties of the soil properties, and as a result, even a factor of safety
greater than one does not confirm the safety against failure of the slope
(Liu et al., 2020; Troncone, 2005; Iovine et al., 2018).
One attempt to investigate the soil uncertainties is developing a
technique called the RFEM, which uses the URF by random field theory
in conjugation with the Finite Element Method (FEM). In this method,
the extracted data from boreholes are used without considering their
location. That is, while in the CRF method, the effects of boreholes
locations are entered in the analysis via the geostatistical method.
Among recent contributions conducted with URF, Cheng et al.
(Cheng et al., 2018) used the random finite difference method for
considering the spatial auto-correlation structures of soil properties
uncertainties in slope stability. Griffiths and Fenton (Griffiths and
Fenton, 2004) assessed the probability of failure (Pf) of a cohesive slope
using both simple and RFEM, combining the FEM with random field
theory. Xiao et al. (Xiao et al., 2016) presented an auxiliary RFEM for
three-dimensional (3-D) slope reliability analysis. The proposed method
reduced the computational effort at small probability levels. Dyson and
Tolooiyan (Dyson and Tolooiyan, 2019) employed the random field
similarity methods and clustering techniques in slope stability simula-
tion for determining the impact of shear strength spatial patterns on
slope failure mechanisms and safety factors. Johari and Talebi (Johari
and Talebi, 2019) presented a stochastic analysis of rainfall-induced
slope instability and steady-state seepage flow using a RFEM. In that
study, the uncertainties of soil parameters via an uncertain wetting
branch of the Soil–Water Retention Curve (SWRC) investigated. Dyson
and Tolooiyan (Dyson and Tolooiyan, 2019) considered probabilistic
slope stability analysis using the RFEM combined with processes to
determine the level of similarity between random fields.
There are limited studies that have been made to apply conditional
simulating for stochastic analysis of slope. Gholampour and Johari
(Gholampour and Johari, 2017) presented an approach for the sto-
chastic analysis of vertical cut in unsaturated soil. A real case study of a
vertical cut was considered, and three boreholes were drilled to in-
vestigate the subsurface layers. It was illustrated that the number of
known data affects the construction of CRF and leads to different Pf.
Johari and Gholampour (Johari and Gholampour, 2018) proposed a

⁎
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: Johari@sutech.ac.ir (A. Johari).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compgeo.2020.103707
Received 16 March 2020; Received in revised form 17 May 2020; Accepted 10 June 2020
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