Task 1 -Pre-knowledge

Teoria de las decisions

Giovanny Micolta – Còd 1130636591

Group 212066-39

Tutor:

Deyanira perez bravo

Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia – UNAD

Escuela de Ciencias Sociales, Artes y Humanidades

Septiembre 8 de 2020
 Exercise 1. Probabilities of a given event:

Suppose you have three dice which are not altered, this
assumes fair play and the odds of any one of their heads
coming out are equal. When rolling the three dice, you
must determine that:

1. Exit number 6 on all dice.

1
∗1
6
 ∗1
6 1
= =0.46 %
6 216

Which is about 0.5 %.

2. The sum of the three dice adds up to 7.

 Those that happen three times in the set of possible outcomes:

1- 1- 5; 2 -2–3 and 3–3–1

They happen three times since they correspond to the following

permutation of positions:

1–1–5; 1–5–1 and 5–1–1

Where the result of each die occupies a position, 2–2–3 and 3–3–1
are distributed the same, changing in each case the different figure
from the other two by 5.

2 - The one that happens six times in the set of possible outcomes:

1–2–4

In this case, the possible distributions would be:

1–2–4; 1–4–2; 2-1-4; 2-4-1; 4–1–2 and 4–2–1

Therefore the total of favorable cases will be 15 = 3 + 3 + 3 + 6

And the probability: 15/216 = 5/72 = 0.0694444

Which is about 7%.

Exercise 2. Graphic solution of equations:

Using the algebraic graphical method, determine the cut-off

point and solution that satisfies the following systems of
equations:

1. Y = -3X + 5
2. Y = 3X + 2

For values of 1 and 0 of the variable x in each of the

equations. That is, replacing in each equation first if x
takes value of 1 and if it takes the value of zero to graph
its lines.

Y = -3X + 5 X 0 1
  Y 5 2

Y = 3X + 2 X 0 1
  Y 2 5
 intersect in (0.5 x, 3.5 y)

Exercise 3. Matrix operations:

The Markov chains use probabilities of previous states,

from there that the matrix multiplication is very important
to solve this type of problems. Given the following
matrices of size (n * m) or (m * m) solve the product of
them.
A)

B)
 Bibliography

Sharma, J. (2016). Operations Research : Theory and

Applications. (pp. 347-378), New Delhi: Laxmi Publications Pvt Ltd, v.
Sixth edition. Retrieved
from http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co/login?
url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?
direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=1950625&lang=es&site=eds-
live&scope=site&ebv=EB&ppid=pp_C
 
Aven, T. (2008). Risk Analysis: The Risk Analysis
Process: Chichester, UK: john wiley & sons editorial (pp. 69-82).
Retrieved from http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2048/login?
url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?
direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=323407&lang=es&site=ehost-live
.