Forecasting

Accurate forecasts can be obtain if the necessary time and error are invested?False
In moving average method the higher the value of k , the more forecasts are influenced by random fluctuations in
demand.False
One of the disadvantages of exponential smoothing method is that it requires more data than the other methods. False
When using the exponential smoothing method, a smaller smoothing factor  will have more of noise-reduction impact
and produce more stable effects.True
When comparing the errors obtained using different forecasting methods , the same conclusion should be reached
regardless of the method of error calculation used.False
The further in advance a forecast is made, the more accurate it will be.False
Computing the mean square error is particularly useful way of determining whether a forecasting yields may small
deviations or a few large deviations True
Casual methods are particularly when demand is greatly influenced by elements of the environmental factors.True
The fundamental difference between cycles and seasonality is the :Duration of the repeating patterns
Which of the following statements comparing the weighted moving average technique and exponential smoothing is
true?
Exponential smoothing typically requires less record keeping of past data
Quantitative Forecast employ one or more mathematical models that rely on historical data and/or casual variables to
forecast demand.
Trend Projection is a term-series forecasting method that fits a trend line to a series of historical data points and then
projects the line into the future for forecasts.
Linear regression is known as a(n) quantitative forecast because it incorporates variables or factors that might influence
the quantity being forecast.
A measure of forecast error that does not depend on the magnitude of the item being forecast is the MAPE/APE

Questionnaire JIT & TOC

1. The theory of constraints is fundamental to proper use of the assignment method of loading jobs. FALSE
2. The theory of constraints is a body of knowledge that deals with anything that limits an organization's ability to meet its
goals. TRUE
3. Substantial research has proved that the only successful method of dealing with bottlenecks is to increase the
bottleneck's capacity. FALSE
4. The theory of constraints has its origins in the theory of finite capacity planning FALSE
5. The increase of the capacity of a constraint is not a technique for dealing with a bottleneck? TRUE
6. Rerouting work, changing work sequence, and accepting idleness at other workstations are some techniques for dealing
with a CCR. FALSE
7. The rope is the resource, usually inventory, necessary to keep the constraint operating at capacity. FALSE
8. The theory of constraints is the body of knowledge that deals with anything that limits an organization's ability to
achieve its goals. TRUE
9. Kaizen" is a Japanese term meaning “setting standards” FALSE
10. Product storage is an example of waste, in the sense that no value is added. TRUE
11. A push system means providing the next station with exactly what is needed when it is needed. FALSE
12. Increasing inventory exposes variability in production processes. FALSE
13. Reducing distance is a common JIT goal. TRUE
14. Many suppliers feel that having a variety of customers is better than being tied to long-term contracts with one
customer. TRUE
15. If setup times and costs can be reduced enough, the JIT ideal of "Lot Size = 1" can be achieved. TRUE
16. A Kanban system requires little variability in lead time because shortages have their impact on the entire productive
system. TRUE
17. Employee empowerment is unnecessary in the Toyota Production System, because automation and powerful
information systems reduce the need for employee creativity and decision making. FALSE
18. A push or pull system, depending upon the rate of demand, is generally found in most of JIT environments. FALSE
19. The rapid throughput is not a benefit of the implementation of JIT. FALSE
20. Which of the following is specifically characterized by the elimination of waste through a focus on exactly what the
customer wants?
a. Just-in-time (JIT)
b. Toyota Production System (TPS)
c. Lean operations
d. Material requirements planning (MRP)
e. Kanban
Which of the following technique are not for dealing with a bottleneck?
Develop alternate routings
Which of the following are technique for dealing with a bottleneck?
Schedule throughput to match capacity of the bottleneck
Increased capacity of the constraints
Have cross-trained employees available to keep the constrains at full operation

In drum-buffer-rope. Buffer is the recourse, usually inventory, necessary to keep the constraints operating at capacity.
The theory of constrains is a body of knowledge that deals with anything that limits an organization’s ability to meet it
goals.
True
Kambans and Andons are elements of the visual workplace because the are visual signal that replace printouts and
paperwork.
True
TPS stands for total Production Streamlining
False
A push system means to providing the next station with exactly what is needed when it is needed
False
Which one of the following is not a benefit of the implementation of JIT?
Variability increase
Kaizen is a Japanese term meaning
Continues improvement

What is the real cost of the bottleneck?

Is the cost of money because of the items you can`t sell because you cant`t produce them and the cost of time and
increasment of the inventory.
What are the dependent events and statistical fluctuations ?
Dependent events: are operations that need to be done in sequence
Statistical fluctuation : Is when the process is not center to the mean or there is variability.

Which are the three performance indicators for the TCO?

Throughput: Rate at which is generated by the system through sales
Inventory : money that the company has invested in buying thinks it interids to sell
Operating expense: money that the system spends turning inventory to throughput
Explain the difference between push and pull system.
Pull: produce according of your demand
Push: Produce and you do not produce again until it sells

Five steps of the TOC:

Identify the constrain to know where your bottleneck is
Explotit: constraint do it as better as you can
Subordinate the constrain : avoid producing more than the constrain can handle
Elevate: expand the capacity of the system
Reapeat: if the constrain is broken repeat the process

What is the goal of a company?

To make money

3 obstacles that Rocco feed when trying to saved the company ?

He applied TOC based on the possibility that the output of different machines in one production process can differ from
one to another. He identify the lowest machine as the bottleneck, applying what the professor tell them to do
Obstacles :
Inventory was not taken into account so the production was very big
They didn’t Know how to apply the bottleneck concept.
They were confused about productivity, the trought was the same as profit.