METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS

BOARD OF EDITORS

EditOT Assistant Editors

E. WJ:NDltLL HEWSON A. NELSON DINGLE
University of Michigan DAVID L. JoNES
Univenity of Michigan
Associate Editors
J. J. GroR.GE H. E. LANDSBntG
Eastern Air Lines U. S. Weather Bureau
A. H. GLE!Io"N R. B. MoNTGOMERY
A. H. Glenn and Associates Johns Hopkins University
Ross GuNN H. A. PANOFSXY
U. S. Weather Bureau Pennsylvania State University
W. C. JACOBS C. M. P:ENNnt
Air Weather Service Meteorological Service of Canada
J. KAPLAN H. RIEHL
University of California, Los Angeles University of Chicago

•
METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS, a serial publication of the American Meteorological Society, serves as a me-
dium for original papers, survey articles, and other material in meteorology and closely related fields; it is intended for
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of Meteorology, in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society or in Weatherwise. A METEOROLOGICAL
MONOGRAPH may consist of a single paper or of a group of papers concerned with a single general topic.

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 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS

Volume 2 July 1957 Number 11

CLOUD AND WEATHER

MODIFICATION:
a group of field experiments

by

S. Petterssen;
J. Spar;
F. Hall;
R. R. Braham, Jr., L. J. Battan,
and H. R. Byers;
H. J. aufm Kampe, J. J. Kelly,
and H. K. Weickmann.

PUBLISHED BY THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

3 JOY ST., BOSTON 8, MASS.
 ISBN 978-1-940033-17-4 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-940033-17-4
METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS
VOLUME 2 NUMBERS 6-11
1953-1957

CONTENTS
Pages

No. 6. Thirty-Day Forecasting: a review of a ten-year experiment

by Jerome Namias. 80 pp., July, 1953.

No. 7. The jet Stream

by H. Riehl, M.A. Alaka, C. L. Jordan, and R. J. Renard. 100 pp.,
August, 1954.

No. 8. Recent Studies in Bioclimatology: a group

by C. W. Thornthwaite and J. R. Mather; W. G. Wellington; J. D.
Findlay; L. P. Herrington; H. F. Blum; C. Monge M.; G. and B.
Duell; F. Sargent, II; H. Landsberg; K. Buettner; J. M. May; J. H.
Foulger. Edited by F. Sargent, II and R. G. Stone. 121 pp., Octo-
ber, 1954.

No. 9. Industrial Operations under Extremes of Weather

by J. A. Russell; W. W. Hay; J. W. Waters; H. E. Hudson, Jr.; J.
Abu-Lughod, W. J. Roberts, and J. B. Stall; A. W. Booth; and E.
F. Taylor. Edited by J. A. Russell. 121 pp., May, 1957.

No. 10. Interaction of Sea and Atmosphere: a group of contributions

by A. C. Redfield and A. R. Miller; G. W. Groves; D. L. Harris; R. 0.
Reid; W. Marks and J. Chase. 75 pp., June, 1957.

No. 11. Cloud and Weather Modification: a group of field experi-

ments
by S. Petterssen; J. Spar; F. Hall; R. R. Braham, Jr., L. J. Battan,
and H. R. Byers; H. J. aufm Kampe, J. J. Kelly, and H. K. Weick-
mann. Ill pp.,July, 1957.

Published and sold by

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

3 JOY STREET, BOSTON 8, MASS.
 TABLE OF CONTENTS
PAGES

TABLE OF CONTENTS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

I. Reports on experiments with artificial

cloud nucleation . ................................... S. PETTERSSEN 1-4

II. Project Scud ............................................... ]. SPAR 5-23

III. The Weather Bureau ACN Project ........................... . F. HALL 24-46

IV. Artificial nucleation of cumulus clouds ... R. R. BRAHAM, ]R., L. J. BATTAN,

AND H. R. BYERS 47-85

V. Seeding experiments in subcooled stratus

clouds ........................... . H. J. AUFM KAMPE, J. ]. KELLY,

AND H. K. WEICKMANN 86-111

 METEOROLOGIC AL MONOGRAPHS

BOARD OF EDITORS

Editor Assistant Editors

E. WENDELL HEWSON A. NELSON DINGLE

University of Michigan DAVID L. joNES

University of Michigan

Assocz'ate Editors

J.J. GEORGE H. E. LANDSBERG

Eastern Air Lines U.S. Weather Bureau

A. H. GLENN R. B. MoNTGOMERY

A. H. Glenn and Associates Johns Hopkins University

Ross GuNN H. A. PANOFSKY

U. S. Weather Bureau Pennsylvania State University

w. C.jACOBS c. M. PENNER
Air Weather Service Meteorological Service of Canada

j. KAPLAN H. RIEHL

University of California, Los Angeles University of Chicago

•
METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS, a serial publication of the American Meteorological Society,
serves as a medium for original papers,· survey articles, and other material in meteorology and closely
related fields; it is intended for material which is better suited in length or nature for publication in mono-
graph form than for publication in the Journal of Meteorology, in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological
Society or in Weatherwise. A METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPH may consist of a single paper or
of a group of papers concerned with a single general topic.
CLOUD AND WEATHER MODIFICATION:
a group of field experiments
by
S. Petterssen; J. Spar; F. Hall;
R. R. Braham, Jr., L. J. Battan, and H. R. Byers;
H. J. aufm Kampe, J. J. Kelly, and H. K. Weickmann.

I. REPORTS ON EXPERIMENTS WITH ARTIFICIAL

CLOUD NUCLEATION
INTRODUCTORY NOTE
By SVERRE PETTERSSEN
University of Chicago
(Manuscript received 28 March 1956)

1. Background of the cloud by natural turbulence and convective

currents.
Possibilities for modification and control of certain
Public interest in the discovery of artificial nu-
small scale weather phenomena were clearly demon-
cleating substances was immediate, and in 1947
strated in 1938 by Houghton and Radford [1] who
Project Cirrus was established, under joint U. S.
dissolved local fogs by sprinkling them with hygro-
Army, Navy and Air Force sponsorship, at the
scopic substances. Wider possibilities for modification
General Electric Research Laboratory, Schenectady,
and control of larger scale phenomena became dis-
New York. About 150 field experiments were made
cernible in 1946 as a result of Schaefer's experiment
involving cold stratus, warm and cold cumulus, and
[2] in which it was shown that the injection of
a tropical storm. Although much photographic and
particles of solid carbon dioxide (dry ice) into a
other data were collected, no definite measure of the
laboratory cloud chamber was capable of converting
efficacy of artificial nucleating agents was obtained.
a subcooled water cloud into an ice crystal cloud.
In 1948 and 1949 the Cloud Physics Project con-
On the basis of the available knowledge of the natural
ducted by the U.S. Weather Bureau, in collaboration
rain-producing processes at that time (i.e., the
with the U. S. Air Force and the National Advisory
Bergeron effect), it was reasonable to conclude that
Committee for Aeronautics, conducted 176 seeding
in principle, suitably constituted clouds could b~
experiments on stratiform clouds in Ohio, orographic
induced to release precipitation by artificial nuclea-
clouds in California, and cumulus clouds along the
tion. It remained, however, to determine whether the
south coast of the United States. The results of these
effect on natural clouds would be sufficiently large
tests were rather inconclusive, particularly since it
to be of practical value.
was found that in all cases when precipitation fell in
During the five years following Schaefer's discovery,
the seeded area, natural precipitation occurred also
numerous field experiments on natural clouds were
within 30 mi of that area.
made covering a wide range of meteorological con-
During the aforementioned years, commercial
ditions. Nucleating substances other than dry ice
interests in cloud seeding came to the fore and several
were also tried. In water clouds with temperatures
commercial organizations became engaged in weather
below freezing (cold clouds), silver iodide had been
modification experiments involving large areas, par-
found, in certain conditions, to have an effect similar
ticularly in the arid and semiarid regions of the
to that of dry ice. In clouds with temperatures above
United States.
freezing (warm clouds), seeding with relatively large
An event which exercised considerable influence on
water droplets, or salt particles, appeared to hold
the planning of later researches must be mentioned.
out some promise as a rain releasing agent. While
dry ice, liquid water and salt had to be carried to the During the period December 1949 to June 1951,
cloud by airborne vehicles, the use of silver iodide Project Cirrus conducted an experiment with periodic
was considered to have great practical advantages seedings by a ground based generator stationed in
since it was thought that the minute silver iodide New Mexico. The seedings were arranged with a
particles could be carried to the appropriate region weekly rhythm, and through a preliminary analysis
1
2 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS
of a selection of the U. S. Weather Bureau records,
Langmuir1 arrived at the conclusion that the seedings
had resulted in a corresponding periodicity, of major
proportions, in the rainfall, temperature and wind
over most of the United States.
Many meteorologists and statisticians were re-
luctant to accept Langmuir's contention that seedings
by a single ground based generator could have in-
fluenced the general behavior of the atmosphere over
vast regions. Similarly, the abovementioned results
obtained by the Cloud Physics Project did not appear
to be acceptable as a definite proof that seeding had
no effect, since the occurrence of natural rainfall near
the seeded area would not necessarily indicate that
rain had not been released nor that rainfall had not
been increased within the seeded area. Furthermore,
the data collected by commercial weather modification
organizations could throw but little light on the
problem, since, owing to the conditions under which
the operations were conducted, statistical control
could not readily be exercised.
During the years J 946-1951 a vast and fascinating
field had been opened for research on the chemistry,
physics and dynamics of the precipitation processes.
Simultaneously, considerable divergence of opinion
had developed as to possibilities of practical
application.
2. Survey of techniques and results
In view of the great potential value of any weather
modification technique and the controversial results
obtained, the U. S. Weather Bureau and the research
organizations of the U.S. Army, Navy and Air Force
agreed in 1951 to appoint a special Advisory Group
to make a survey of the field of weather modification.
In addition, the Advisory Group was asked to recom-
mend a program for experiments and tests that could
be expected to clarify the major uncertainties that
existed at that time for the operational uses of
weather modification techniques. The composition of
the Advisory Group was as follows:
E. R. Biel, climatologist, Rutgers University
C. L. Critchfield, physicist, Convair
S. Petterssen, chairman, meteorologist, University
of Chicago
A. Spilhaus, meteorologist, University of Minnesota
H. J. Stewart, aerodynamicist, California Institute
of Technology
A. T. Waterman, physicist, National Science
Foundation
M. A. Woodbury, statistician, New York Univer-
sity
1 For the results of his final analyses, see Langmuir [3].
VoL. 2, No. 11
It may be noted that the members were chosen not
as experts on weather modification techniques but
rather as representatives of the more important
branches of the sciences involved.
With the able assistance of Dr. Thomas F. Malone,
the Advisory Group surveyed the literature on cloud
physics and weather modification and control. In
July, August, and September, 1951 the Advisory
Group visited various research centers and consulted
the following scientists who had contributed sub-
stantially to progress either in cloud physics research
or in related statistical designs:
J. H. Bryan, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
G. W. Brier, U. S. Weather Bureau
Michael Ference, Evans Signal Laboratory
Ross Gunn, U. S. Weather Bureau
H. G. Houghton, Massachusetts Institute of
Technology
Irving Langmuir, General Electric Research
Laboratory
Paul B. MacCready, Jr., California Institute of
Technology
H. C. S. Thorn, U. S. Weather Bureau
Bernard Vonnegut, General Electric Research
Laboratory
C. P. Wadsworth, Massachusetts Institute of
Technology
On 9 October 1951, the Advisory Group attended
a symposium on cloud seeding arranged by the
American Meteorological Society at Minneapolis,
Minnesota, and arranged a meeting with the following
representatives of commercial firms engaged in
weather modification work.
R. D. Elliott, North American Weather Consultants
J. R. Gillenwaters, Water Resources Development
Corporation
Wallace E. Howell, W. E. Howell Associates
Raymond E. Kerr, Jr., North American Weather
Consultants
Irving P. Krick, American Institute of Aerological
Research and Water Resources Development
Corporation
Kenneth C. Reutz, Water Resources Development
Corporation
The Advisory Group took note of the Statement
on Weather Modification and Control issued in 1951
by the American Meteorological Society, the con-
cluding section of which reads as follows:
"Definite answers to the question left unsolved
. . . can be expected to come only from research in
cloud physics and from well-designed experiments
conducted by personnel with detailed knowledge in
cloud physics, synoptic meteorology and statistics.
jULY 1957 SVERRE PETTERSSEN
In view of the potential value of any techniques
for the control or modification of weather it is of
utmost importance that such experiments be
furthered.''
In summarizing its findings the Advisory Group
placed much emphasis on the need for experiments to
clarify the possibilities of modification of the larger
atmospheric systems, such as those discussed by
Langmuir. It is often observed that the atmosphere
has a natural tendency to revert to a quasi-rhythmic
behavior with a period of about four to ten days,
and it was argued that the periodic seedings had
excited and stabilized an existing periodicity. The
Advisory Group found that unless one is prepared to
characterize the periodicity described by Langmuir
" ... as a rare accident, one must conclude that
the seedings, through some hitherto unknown mech-
anism, had resulted in an amplification and
stabilization of a pre-existing natural oscillation of
about seven days. Logically, this could occur only
if the seeding, in some way or other, had affected
some or all of the natural migratory rain-producing
systems (such as extratropical fronts and cyclones).
Although this working hypothesis may be weak, it
appears to be the only one that can be entertained
on a logical basis."
The Advisory Group found additional support for
the above conclusion in a report by Langmuir on a
tropical storm which appeared to have intensified
and altered its course immediately after seeding had
been performed, and also in statements by the afore-
mentioned representatives of commercial organizations
who had gained the impression that nascent extra-
tropical cyclones tended to intensify and the associated
rainfall tended to increase as a result of seeding.
In reviewing the information on modification of
stratus and fog, the Advisory Group concluded that
there was good evidence to indicate that cold stratus
(and presumably also cold fog) could be dispelled by
artificial nucleation. It drew attention to the fact
that little or no work had been done to explore the
possibilities of modification of warm stratus and ice
crystal fogs.
In regard to convective clouds the Advisory Group
found some evidence to indicate that modification
had been achieved as a result of artificial nucleation.
However, it was not clear whether such clouds could
be modified in a predictable manner, some clouds
having been seen to dissipate while others had been
seen to develop within a few minutes after the seeding.
In no case had it been possible, with any degree of
certainty, to determine or predict what would have
occurred if seeding had not been performed, and this
emphasized the need for more rigorous control of
future tests. Considerable uncertainty existed amongst
3
the experts in regard to the optimum rate of seeding
with dry ice, the estimates varying from about 0.5
lb per mi to about 20 times that value.
The Advisory Group was pleased to note that all
experts consulted agreed that there was a need for a
coordinated program for experiments and tests, with
a view to determining whether or not weather systems
can be modified with useful results. Since it is rarely
possible in individual cases to separate artificial in-
fluences from natural atmospheric processes, emphasis
was placed on randomization with adequate statistical
control and services. Although little information was
available, the Advisory Group estimated that if any
appreciable modification were feasible, it should be
possible to provide within a period of one or two
years a tentative answer to the question of success
or failure in cloud and weather modification. The
results of the experiments could then serve as a basis
for the reorientation of the research effort in cloud
physics and related fields.
3. Field projects
On the recommendation of the Advisory Group the
following projects were established.
Project 1. Extratropical cyclones. The purpose of
this project was to ascertain whether or not it would
be possible to modify the development and behavior
of extratropical cyclones by artificial nucleation, with
the further aim of elucidating Langmuir's contention
that the larger-scale motion systems can be modified
by seeding. The investigation (Project Scud) was
sponsored by the Office of Naval Research. Flight
operations were performed by the U. S. Navy Hurri-
cane Reconnaissance Squadron, and the meteorolog-
ical analyses were made under the direction of Dr.
Jerome Spar of New York University. The results of
this project are described in paper II of this mono-
graph.
Project 2. Migratory cloud systems. The purpose of
this project was to ascertain to what extent rainfall
could be increased by artificial nucleation from such
large-scale migratory cloud systems as are commonly
associated with fronts and cyclones. The project was
operated by the U. S. Weather Bureau under the
direction of Mr. Ferguson Hall. The results are de-
scribed in paper III.
Project 3. Convective clouds. The purpose of this
investigation was to determine to what extent cold
and warm cumulus and cumulonimbus clouds could
be modified by artificial nucleation. The project was
sponsored by the U.S. Air Force, Cambridge Research
Center, on contract with the University of Chicago-
the Air Force Research and Development Command
supplying flight services. The field tests and associated
4 METEOROLOGICAL
laboratory research were carried out under the direc-
tion of Dr. Horace R. Byers. The results are described
in paper IV.
Project 4. Cold stratus and fog. The primary purpose
of this research was to investigate the possibilities of
dissolving cold stratus and fog. The project was
sponsored by the Signal Corps Engineering Labora-
tories; analyses were performed by Drs. H. J. aufm
Kampe, J. J. Kelly, and H. K. Weickmann. The
results are described in paper V.
Project 5. Ice fogs. The purpose of this project was
to investigate the physics of ice fogs, their relation to
synoptic situations, local sources of water, pollution,
etc. The U.S. Air Force established this project under
a contract with Stanford Research Institute. Investi-
gation of ice fogs at air bases in Alaska showed that
most of these fogs developed from local sources of
water and pollution, such as chimneys, smoke stacks,
power plants, motor vehicles, and aircraft during
warm-up operations. A report on this project is not
included in this monograph.
Project 6. Warm stratus. A project for the purpose
of exploring techniques for modifying warm stratus
and fog was established by the U.S. Army on contract
with A. D. Little, Inc., Boston, Massachusetts.
Attempts have been made to construct generators
capable of producting space charges (associated with
aerosols) sufficient to effect precipitation of the water
droplets in warm stratus and fog. A report on this proj-
ect is not included in this monograph.
4. Coordination and advice
Having submitted recommendations for the estab-
lishment of the projects referred to above, the
Advisory Group was requested to remain and furnish
advice to the various projects and the sponsoring
agencies, provide for exchange of information, and
review results. The Advisory Group visited the
various projects, arranged for joint meetings and
discussions, and received regular and occasional re-
ports on progress.
On 13-15 July 1954 the Advisory Group arranged
a meeting with representatives of all projects and the
sponsoring agencies, at which the results available
then were reviewed in considerable detail. The
results of the discussions at this meeting may be
summarized as follows:
a) Analyses of the data collected by Projects 1
and 2 seemed to indicate that with present techniques
seeding operations on extratropical cyclones and on
migratory cloud systems were likely to reveal only
uncertain effects. It appeared that several more years
were necessary to determine the effects with any
degree of certainty.
MONOGRAPHS VoL. 2, No. 11
b) An analysis by the U. S. Weather Bureau of
the periodic seeding results obtained by Project Cirrus
showed that the pronounced correspondence between
the changes in the seeding schedule and the rainfall
patterns described by Langmuir was not substantiated
when all data were included [4].
c) In view of the abovementioned results, it was
found that progress in the field of modification and
control of the larger-scale systems was more likely to
come from basic research on the physics of clouds
and the dynamics of weather systems than from
continuation of operational tests of present techniques.
Accordingly, the Advisory Group recommended that
the coordinated program for field experiments and
tests be brought to a close at an early date.
d) It was noted that, although many promising
results had been achieved by Projects 3-6, there
remained a vast field for research in cloud physics
and related meteorological subjects. Therefore, the
Advisory Group recommended that the sponsoring
agencies continue and encourage such research, and
that the valuable data and by-products which had been
developed by all field projects be fully exploited as part
of the continuing program of the agencies concerned.
e) It was considered that the field projects had
contributed substantially to the clarification of the
possibilities of modifying weather systems on various
scales, and that the knowledge gained would be of
great value to future researches. Accordingly, the
Advisory Group recommended that full reports on
Projects 1-4 be published.
In response to this recommendation, arrangements
were made with the American Meteorological Society
for the publishing of this monograph, and the Chair-
man of the Advisory Group was asked to write a pref-
atory note explaining the general aspects of the pro-
gram under which the field projects were conducted.
Acknowledgments-The writer wishes to record his
gratitude to the officials of the U. S. Weather Bureau,
Army, Navy and Air Force, the project leaders and
personnel, and the members of the Advisory Group on
Artificial Cloud Nucleation for their ever-willing co-
operation and unvarying courtesy.
REFERENCES
1. Houghton, H. G., and W. H. Radford, 1938: On the local
dissipation of natural fog. Pap. phys. Oceanrg. Meteor., 6,
no. 3, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Woods
Hole Oceanographic Institution, 63 pp.
2. Schaefer, V. J., 1949: The formation of ice crystals in the
laboratory and the atmosphere. Chem. Rev., 44, 291-320.
3. Langmuir, I., 1953: Final Report, Project Cirrus. General
Electric Research Laboratory, Schenectady, N.Y.
4. Brier, G. W., 1955: Seven-day periodicities in certain meteoro-
logical parameters during the period 1899-1951. Bull.
Amer. meteor. Soc., 36, 6, 265-277.
CLOUD AND WEATHER MODIFICATION:
a group of field experiments
by
S. Petterssen; J, Spar; F. Hall;
R. R. Braham, Jr., L. J, Battan, and H. R. Byers;
H. J, aufm Kampe, J, J, Kelly, and H. K. Weickmann.

II. PROJECT SCUD 1

By JEROME SPAR
Department of Meteorology and Oceanography, New York University
(Manuscript received 3 April 1956)

ABSTRACT
Cloud seeding with dry ice and silver iodide was conducted over the east coastal region of the United
States during the periods January-April 1953 and December 1953-April 1954, to determine the effects of
seeding on cyclone development. The experimental units employed were cases of potential cyclogenesis. After
selection of the cases, seeded and control instructions were separated by a randomization procedure in con-
secutive pairs. Test variates were 24-hr area integrated precipitation and sea level pressure change. The
data were reduced by the method of analysis of covariance. It was concluded from the statistical analysis
that if the seeding had any effect on the large scale precipitation or on the pressure field, the effect was too
small to be detected against the background of natural meteorological variance.

1. Introduction A physical mechanism to account for large scale

Project Scud was established at New York Univer-
sity in May 1952 to determine the effects of artificial
cloud nucleation on cyclone development in the east
coastal region of the United States.
Extensive cloud seeding with dry ice and silver
iodide was carried out by the project during the
periods January-April1953 and December 1953-April
1954. The results of the seeding experiment have been
described by the author in detail in two hitherto
confidential technical reports [6; 7]. In March 1955
the project was declassified, thus permitting publica-
tion of the present paper.
The hypothesis that cloud seeding may affect the
behavior of cyclones has frequently been advanced
since 1946. On 13 October 1947 a hurricane was
seeded with dry ice by Project Cirrus off the southeast
coast of the United States [5]. The seeding was
followed by an apparently erratic alteration of the
path of the storm. From a consideration of the
probability of such a change of direction occurring
by chance, Langmuir concluded that
" ... there is considerable evidence that seeding
hurricanes does tend to change their behavior."
1 The research reported in this paper was sponsored by the
Office of Naval Research under Contract No. Nonr-285 (09).
5
effects of seeding has been proposed by Langmuir [4]
as follows:
" ... if it is possible, by seeding clouds, to produce
rain over large areas where it would not occur of its
own accord, the heat generated should have a
marked effect on the circulation of the atmosphere
over areas even greater than that over which the
rain fell."
It follows from this hypothesis that one consequence
of cloud seeding may be a modification of large scale
wind and pressure systems such as cyclones. Langmuir
has stated with regard to hurricanes [5] that
" ... the larger the storm, and the more energy
that is stored in it, the easier it should be at the
proper stage in its development to get widespread
effects.''
This suggestion cannot be rejected a priori. How-
ever, in the eastern United States, and probably in
most parts of the world, the precipitation and the
supply of ice crystals in well developed extratropical
cyclones are generally copious [1]. It therefore seems
reasonable to expect seeding to be more effective in
the early stages of cyclone development rather than
in the later stages. If, as is widely believed, cyclo-
genesis is an instability phenomenon, the release of
latent heat through seeding might act as a trigger
6 M~TEOROLOGICAL
mechanism with important consequences for the life
history of the storm. Whatever may be the mechanism,
it must be accepted that the modification of cyclones
by cloud seeding is at least a physical possibility.
The problem for this investigation was to determine
whether such modifications, if they occur, can be
detected, measured and described.
The experiment conducted by Project Scud was
designed to test the null hypothesis that cloud seeding
in areas of cyclogenesis in the east coastal region of
the United States has no measurable effect on the
development of storms. A quasi-objective criterion
for cyclogenesis was established for the purpose of
selecting the weather situations to be seeded and the
location of the seeding, which might be anywhere
between Florida and Massachusetts and east of the·
Appalachian Mountains. Control was accomplished
by seeding only one member of each pair of situations
selected. The effects of the seeding, in terms of the
large scale test parameters which had been selected
prior to the experiment, were then investigated by
comparing the seeded and unseeded storm samples
by the statistical method of analysis of covariance as
well as by the more subjective synoptic methods.
The experiment was carefully designed in advance
to minimize bias in selection and interpretation, and
the experimental design was followed scrupulously.
This rigid objectivity does not preclude the discovery
of effects which have not been included in the original
hypothesis. The data are available and can be analyzed
again to test any hypothesis. However, the results of
such posthumous analyses must be considered tenta-
tive and subject to further testing.
In the two seasons during which seeding was
carried out, 37 cyclonic situations were selected for
the experiment and 19 of these were seeded, 18 being
set aside as the control group. Seeding was conducted
simultaneously with silver iodide, released from
ground generators, and dry ice released from aircraft.
More than 250 lb of silver iodide and more than 30
tons of dry ice were dispensed into clouds during
the entire experiment. The dry ice seeding operation
is believed to be the largest of its kind ever attempted.
The results of the experiment were negative in the
sense that the null hypothesis could not be rejected
at an acceptable probability level. While the statistical
results lend no support to the theory that seeding
produces large scale effects, they do not exclude the
possibility of small effects to which the experiment
may be insensitive.
2. Design of the experiment
The following elements were specified prior to the
beginning of the experiment in January 1953:
MONOGRAPHS VoL. 2, No. 11
1. Experimental units to be used in the test and
the method of selection.
2. Control units and the method of selection.
3. Treatments to be applied to the experimental
units.
4. Test variates to be used as measures of the effects
of the treatments.
5. Method of analysis to be used in the evaluation
of the experiment, including the covariates.
The importance of specifying the conditions of an
experiment in advance, including the manner in
which it is to be analyzed, has been stressed repeatedly
by statistical workers. Thus R. A. Fisher has stated
[3],
"In considering the appropriateness of any proposed
experimental design, it is always needful to forecast
all possible results of the experiment, and to have
decided without ambiguity what interpretation
shall be placed upon each of them. Further, we
must know by what argument this interpretation
is to be sustained."
The experimental units were defined in terms of
the time of beginning of seeding and the area over
which the seeding was to take place. It was desired
to seed situations in which cyclogenesis appeared
imminent. There was no requirement that a cyclone
exist at the time of the seeding, and indeed cyclones
often failed to materialize. But the time and place of
seeding was intended to correspond to the time and
place at which cyclogenesis would occur if it were
going to happen at all.
It is well known that cyclogenesis on the east
coast of the United States occurs only to the east of
an upper level trough, that is, where the flow at
upper levels has a· southerly component. Such flow
patterns are almost invariably accompanied also by
widespread cloudiness, and in winter these clouds are
at least partly, if not entirely, subcooled. Thus, a
criterion for the selection of experimental cases would
be one which measures the southerly wind component
aloft. A geostrophic meridional circulation index was
devised for this purpose. This index, designated M,
was defined as
M = (h1+h2+ha)- (h4+h5+ho),
where h denotes the geopotential height of the 700 mb
surface. The numbers 1, 2 and 3 refer to the radio-
sonde stations Nantucket, Mass., Hatteras, N. C.,
and Tampa, Fla., while the numbers 4, 5 and 6 refer
to stations Pittsburgh, Pa., Nashville, Tenn., and
Burwood, La. A positive value of M indicates that
the is~baric surface slopes upward to the east with a
southerly component of the geostropic wind, whereas
negative values of M indicate the existence of a
jULY 1957 JEROME SPAR 7

northerly wind component. The speed of the meridi- distribution of seeded and unseeded cases throughout
onal geostrophic wind component increases with M. the season and thus avoids the introduction of a
Only cases in which the index was predicted to be sampling bias resulting from the effects of a seasonal
positive were selected for the experiment. trend.
The time and place of the seeding was selected in Randomization in the experiment was accomplished
each case by the forecasting staff of the project at by first separating the functions of selection and
New York University on the basis of the M index treatment. The selection of each case was made by
and subjective forecasts of the weather. Because of the project staff in New York. After the zero hour
logistical considerations, it was necessary to select and target region were selected, the decision was
the zero hour and "target" area at least 10 hr prior transmitted by telephone to the Navy Project Officer
to zero hour. The forecasts were not invariably at the Naval Air Station, Norfolk, Va., who in turn
successful and more than one seeding mission was was in control of the seeding operations. When
conducted under unsuitable weather conditions. notified of the selection of an odd numbered case
Separation criteria were established to prevent (the first of a pair), the Navy Project Officer assigned
overlapping of the experimental units and the it at random either to the seeded or the unseeded
"contamination" of a case by the seeding of the group, the randomization being insured by the tossing
preceding case. The separation rule required that a of coins. Twelve coins were placed in a box, shaken
period of negative M index intervene between any and tossed. The procedure was repeated three times
two successive cases. In general, this implies that by three different individuals and the total number of
only one case could be selected for the experiment heads was counted. If this number was even, the
for each 700 mb trough, and a ridge would have to first case of the pair was to be seeded and the necessary
pass through the region before the next case could be orders for seeding were issued by the Project Officer.
chosen. Each case was thus clearly distinguished from If the number was odd, no orders to seed were issued
those which preceded and followed it. The one excep-
tion to this rule, which was also stipulated in advance,
permitted the next case to be chosen if at least 60 hr
had elapsed since the preceding zero hour, although
the M index may have remained positive during this
interval. The 60-hr rule, which was actually invoked
only once in the experiment, was designed to insure
that, in cases of stagnant and retrograde troughs on
the east coast, the experiment would not lose valuable
time and data.
Only one member of each pair of cases selected for
the experiment was seeded. Thus a control sample of
unseeded cases, selected by the same criteria as the
seeded cases, was available for comparison. Two pre-
cautions were necessary to minimize sampling bias.
First, the decision as to which of the pair of cases was
or was not to be seeded was left to chance. Second,
the forecasters who selected the experimental cases
had no knowledge of the prior order of seeded and
unseeded cases. Thus it was impossible for the fore-
casters to bias the experiment by selection.
The decision to obtain a control sample by ran-
domizing in pairs, rather than by using historical
data or by randomizing in larger blocks, was based on
two considerations. First, there is the possibility that
the weather in the year of the experiment might be
unusual. (As a matter of fact, the winter of 1952-1953
was one of the wettest on record in the east coastal
FIG. 1. Silver iodide smoke generator and propane gas tank.
region.) A comparison with historical data might then Tank containing silver iodide-acetone solution can be seen inside
give misleading results. Second, randomizing in pairs open metal case. Flow of solution is measured by flowmeter
shown at right inside case. Silver iodide solution and propane
rather than in larger blocks tends to provide a uniform mixture burns in flame shield at top of case.
8 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS VoL. 2, No. 11

FIG. 2. Navy P4Y-2 Privateer used for dry ice seeding, winter of 1952-1953.

and the case was included in the control group. The Tampa Bay, Fla. Ft. Macon, S.C.
second member of the pair automatically fell into the Sanford, Fla. Weeksville, N. C.
J acksonville, Fla. Norfolk, Va.
opposite category. The forecasters who selected the Glynco, Ga. Chincoteague, Va.
cases had no direct control over the seeding operation; Pensacola, Fla. P atuxent, Md.
they were not informed of the order of seeded and Atlanta, Ga. Annapolis, Md.
unseeded cases until the end of each season. Folly Island, S. C. Atlantic City, N.J.
Since it could not be determined a priori which Oak Island, N.C. Lakehurst, N . ].
Floyd Bennett Field, N . Y .
seeding technique would produce a given effect, it
was decided at the beginning of the experiment that Locations of these stations are shown in fig. 4.
the treatment would consist of dispensing into the A denser network of generators than the above
air both silver iodide smoke and dry ice pellets. The would have been desirable. However, security require-
silver iodide was released from smoke generators ments and the need for operating personnel available
installed at the following Navy and Coast Guard 24 hr per day limited the number of stations.
stations: Fortunately , the cloud systems with which the project

FIG. 3. Navy P2V- 3W Neptune used for dry ice seeding, winters of 1952-1953 and 1953-1954.
jULY 1957 JEROME SPAR
was concerned were extensive enough so that in most
of the cases few of the generators were too far from a
cloud area. Also, it was expected that the convergent
southerly and easterly winds in the lower levels,
which are usually associated with incipient cyclo-
genesis in this region, would carry the silver iodide
particles into the storm area even from the remote
stations.
In each seeded case all seventeen generators were
ignited simultaneously at zero hour and burned con-
tinuously for a period of 12 hr. The generators, one
of which is shown in fig. 1, were of a type used by
many commercial cloud seeders in the United States
and were patterned after a spray nozzle burner
developed by Vonnegut [8]. A four per cent solution
of silver iodide in acetone was sprayed through a fine
·o-o-o- Green Trocks
Si lver 10d1de $mo•e
9t nt r a tor
FrG. 4. Target areas and locations of silver iodide smoke generators.
9
nozzle and vaporized in a propane gas flame. The
quenching action of the cool air condensed the silver
iodide vapor producing many small crystallization
nuclei. One quart of solution, containing 36 gm Agl,
was consumed per hour by each generator. It has
been estimated by Vonnegut that 1 gm Agl will yield
about 10 16 ice crystal nuclei.
Seeding with dry ice was carried out by the Navy
Airborne Early Warning Squadron Four (formerly
Weather Squadron Two) based at the Naval Air
Station, Jacksonville, Florida. The squadron was
available to Project Scud for the period December
through April; the remainder of the time it was
committed to hurricane reconnaissance/ At the begin-
ning of the experiment the type of aircraft flown by
the squadron was the low altitude P4Y-2 Privateer
- - - - Red Troclu
0 0 0 1 0 Blue Troek:s
0 •0-0fo Green Troelts
• Silver iod•de smoke
9e n e ro lor s
10 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS VoL. 2, No. 11

(fig. 2) which proved to be rather unsatisfactory for

the seeding task. In the middle of the first season,
however, the Privateers were supplemented by P2V-3W
Neptunes (fig. 3), and in the second winter the
squadron flew only the P2V-3W aircraft. The latter
were far more satisfactory than the Privateers because
of their greater altitude and better all around per-
formance. Both types of aircraft were equipped with
standard meteorological instruments for weather re-
connaissance. Unfortunately, the scanning arrange-
ment of the radar did not permit their use for weather
observations.
During the first winter the forecasting staff in New
York prescribed a seeding track for each case selected.
The tracks were approximately 1000 mi long and
varied in location and shape depending on the pre-
dicted weather. The seeding tracks were selected to
traverse areas where cyclogenesis appeared likely and
where clouds were expected to be abundant and
thick. Three aircraft were dispatched on each seeding
mission, the lead plane flying the prescribed track
and the other two planes flying approximately
parallel tracks about 100 mi on either side of the lead
plane. In the control cases only one plane was dis-
patched to fly a simulated seeding mission on the
prescribed track. The purpose of this flight was to
collect data so that the seeded and unseeded cases
could be compared with respect to seeding conditions.
The dry ice seeding program was altered somewhat
before the second winter in an effort to improve the
effectiveness of the seeding. Instead of a track, a
target area was selected in each case, the east coastal
region being divided into six overlapping target areas
as shown in fig. 4. Three standard seeding tracks,
designated red, blue and green, were laid out in each
area for the three aircraft. Only the blue track was
flown in the control cases.
In the first winter each plane carried 1000 lb of dry
ice and dispensed at the rate of 1 lb per mi. The load
was increased to 2500 lb of dry ice per plane in the
second winter and the seeding rate was increased to FrG. 5. Dry ice hopper and dispensing unit. Operator filling
hopper with crushed dry ice from insulated cardboard container.
5 lb per mi. In both seasons the dry ice was crushed Entire unit mounted on removable panel.
into pellets approximately 0.5 in. in diameter, stored
on the airplane in insulated cardboard containers, The selection of test variates, by which the effects
and dispensed through a hole in the airplane by means of the seeding were to be measured, was of necessity
of a motor driven feeder worm at the bottom of a somewhat arbitrary, although the problem was given
hopper. The hopper and dispensing unit are shown in long consideration. First, two regions were selected,
fig. 5. one containing the seeded area for the determination
Zero hour for the dry ice was intended to cor- of local effects, the other lying some distance north-
respond to the selected zero hour at which time the east of the seeded area for the determina tion of down-
silver iodide generators were ignited. The aircraft wind effects. The overlapping test regions, designated
remained over the target region until the dry ice I and II, are outlined in fig. 6 and 7. Within each of
supply was exhausted, or until the seedable clouds these regions a sub-region was defined consisting only
dissipated. of the land area where precipitation could be measured.
jULY 1957 JEROME SPAR 11

FIG. 6. Test regions I (outlined), Ia (stippled). Entire area, I, used for

analysis of pressure changes (PI, Pmi). Sub-region I a used for analysis of
large scale precipitation (RI).

These sub-regions, Ia and IIa, are shown as stippled

"----+-----+-----+-~-------,
FIG. 7. Test region II (outlined), Ila (stippled). Entire area,
II, used for analysis of pressure changes (PII, Pmii). Sub-
region, Ila, used for a nalysis of la rge scale precipitation (RII).
areas in fig. 6 and 7.
Next, the periods over which the variates were to
be measured were defined. In region I the variates
were measured over the 24-hr period beginning at
zero hour so that instantaneous as well as slightly
delayed effects could be measured. In region II the
24-hr period began 12 hr after zero hour in order to
give the seeding materials an opportunity to affect
the region. The selection of these periods and the
choice of region II were influenced also by a con-
sideration of the normal movement of east coastal
cyclones. The cyclones usually moved into region II
in the second 24-hr period.
The meteorological variates selected were jhe
average 24-hr precipitation amounts over the areas
Ia and IIa and the average 24-hr sea level pressure
changes over the areas I and I I. The averages were
computed by areal integration. Those quantities will
be designated RI, RII, PI and P II, respectively.
After the first season three variates were added to
those already chosen. The new variates were the
maximum negative 24-hr sea level pressure changes
in regions I and II, denoted Pmi and Pmii, and the
24-hr precipitation averaged over the target area,
denoted Rt.
The quantities RI and Rt were computed from a
uniform network of Weather Bureau raingages with a
density of about one gage in 850 sq mi. The other
12 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS VoL. 2, No. 11

variates were computed from isopleth analyses of
6-hr synoptic reports.
These measurements are undoubtedly too coarse
to permit detection of small local effects. For that
purpose a much denser network of raingages would
be needed. The geographical extent of the seeding
operations, however, made it impossible to set up a
special dense network of raingages. It was felt that
the coarse net was adequate to detect large scale
effects.
Although the experiment was intended primarily to
determine the effect of seeding on cyclone behavior,
precipitation was selected as one of the test variates,
because it was felt that any such effects must operate
through the precipitation mechanism. If no effect
could be detected in the precipitation, one would be
less likely to expect any other effects.
The quantities RI and RII were employed as
measures of the effect on large scale precipitation of
both the silver iodide and the dry ice seeding. The
target area precipitation, Rt, was introduced m an
effort to detect the smaller scale, more localized
effects of seeding, especially those resulting from
seeding with dry ice.
The pressure change variates were selected as
measures of cyclone development. While local pres-
sure change does have certain disadvantages for this
purpose, it was felt that any effect of seeding on
cyclone behavior should be reflected in the pressure
change field. These effects might conceivably be an
acceleration or retardation of the deepening, an altera-
tion of the path of the cyclone, or a change in the
structure of the storm. Just as the correct seeding
technique cannot be determined a priori, so also the
effects cannot be predicted. Hence, it seemed wise to
employ a variate that would be responsive to all
kinds of effects.
The statistical analysis of the data was carried out

TABLE 1. Test variates and covariates for east coastal seeding experiment.

Dry ice
Treat- dispensed Target
No. Zero hour/Date ment (!b) area RI RII Rt PI PII Pmi Pmii M T Tt L No.

Experiment ONE

1 1230/ 9 Jan. 1953 s 1000 .498 .011 -2.8 -6.7 -9.0 -19.9 87 961 31 1
2 0630/18 Jan. 53 c .339 .016 -9.9 -12.6 -22.8 -23.8 63 269 81 2
3 1230/21 Jan. 53 c .188 .063 -2.1 -11.0 -31.0 -31.7 25 -699 65 3
4 0030/24 Jan. 53 s 2500 .603 .721 -16.6 -17.7 -31.0 -33.0 115 1203 56 4
5 0630/ 1 Feb. 53 s 650 .021 .108 +3.5 +4.2 -20.8 -26.8 37 -259 135 5
6 0630/ 3 Feb. 53 c .081 .086 -9.6 -7.1 -28.5 -27.9 10 -279 53 6
7 1830/ 6 Feb. 53 c .519 .102 -5.8 -5.1 -12.2 -16.5 75 654 65 7
8 0630/12 Feb. 53 s 1370 .175 .006 -7.9 -2.9 -25.5 -17.5 28 402 105 8
9 0630/15 Feb. 53 c .738 .499 -8.7 -15.5 -41.3 -45.4 90 329 38 9
10 1830/20 Feb. 53 s 2480 .417 .200 -9.8 -26.1 -33.0 -50.2 71 1572 77 10
11 1230/25 Feb. 53 c .138 .020 -3.1 +0.9 -13.7 -16.8 -7 -97 23 11
12 1830/ 3 Mar. 53 s 405 .441 .439 -16.3 -26.1 -38.7 -43.1 52 1156 33 12
13 1230/13 Mar. 53 s 460 .180 .574 -4.2 -8.9 -19.3 -30.5 24 -122 107 13
14 1230/15 Mar. 53 c .435 .137 -2.7 -4.0 -14.5 -15.1 51 312 76 14
15 1830/18 Mar. 53 s 1680 .178 .013 -3.1 +1.7 -14.5 -10.0 30 798 77 15
16 1830/23 Mar. 53 c .423 .062 -6.0 +3.3 -13.8 -12.4 53 670 48 16
17 1830/ 1 Apr. 53 c .072 .167 -0.9 +0.3 -10.5 -7.8 17 -40 88 17
18 1830/ 6 Apr. 53 s 1125 .715 .160 -5.3 -2.4 -17.0 -24.0 47 1173 36 18
19 1830/10 Apr. 53 c .075 .113 +1.4 -4.7 -9.3 -23.5 44 -620 89 19
20 0630/16 Apr. 53 s 1935 .205 .066 -2.6 -1.4 -18.1 -22.0 57 -383 97 20
21 1230/18 Apr. 53 s 2975 .260 .031 -4.6 -2.6 -12.4 -14.5 43 709 30 21

Arithmetic {Seeded .336 .212 -6.35 -8.08 -21.75 -26.50 53.7 655 71
means Control .301 .127 -4.74 -5.57 -19.76 -22.09 42.1 50 63

Experiment TWO

22 1830/ 4 Dec. 53 s 7425 4 .362 .426 .201 -2.22 -9.60 -19.9 -.33.5 99 140 100 65 22
23 1830/ 9 Dec. 53 c 4 .,H4 .757 .358 -11.05 -16.70 -28.3 -43.5 83 320 120 28 23
24 1230/12 Dec. 53 s 7150 2 .454 .133 .416 +8.34 -3.53 -22.0 -17.0 58 411 312 28 24
25 1830/10 Jan. 54 c 5 .364 .101 .539 -5.52 -3.95 -14.5 -23.3 51 880 195 30 25
26 1230/15 Jan. 54 c 5 .598 .059 ,461 -13.39 -13.84 -20.2 -23.6 19 938 340 136 26
27 1230/21 Jan. 54 s 1350 4 .316 .033 .689 +4.47 +9.56 -9.8 -6.3 32 -450 -400 136 27
28 1830/27 Jan. 54 c 6 .089 .271 .216 -3.95 -6.48 -25.3 -22.5 27 -1187 -792 105 28
29 1830/11 Feb. 54 s 6750 4 .020 .198 .005 +9.46 +2.87 -17.8 -18.5 -2 -845 -495 87 29
30 1830/20 Feb. 54 s 3350 4 .497 .040 1.022 -6.40 -5.55 -16.0 -16.0 91 1189 600 36 30
31 1830/24 Feb. 54 c 2 .192 .191 .110 -5.79 -8.23 -20.1 -20.0 44 -42 -28 34 31
32 1230/26 Feb. 54 s 5825 6 .057 .197 .146 +5.17 +2.72 -8.8 -14.7 48 -91 193 98 32
33 1230/ 1 Mar. 54 c 6 .232 .096 .689 +5.87 -4.30 -12.7 -13.7 113 -839 39 90 33
34 1830/13 Mar. 54 s 6110 5 .619 .130 .664 -13.14 -11.85 -30.7 -34.5 55 365 125 69 34
35 1830/19 Mar. 54 c 3 .563 .362 .497 -11.15 -7.39 -26.3 -26.0 52 997 327 49 35
36 1230/30 Mar. 54 c 6 .063 .028 ,050 +4.77 +3.70 -2.7 -11.1 15 -480 -380 104 36
37 0630/28 Apr. 54 s 6200 6 .117 .007 .172 +2.75 +5.90 -2.5 -4.7 1 338 301 106 37

Arithmetic {Seeded .305 .146 .414 -1.03 -1.19 -15.94 -18.15 47.7 132 92 78
means Control .309 .233 .365 -5.03 -7.15 -18.76 -22.96 50.5 73 -18 72

Arithmetic { ONE and TWO Seeded .322 .184 -4.11 -5.18 -19.30 -22.98 51.3 435 74
means ONE and TWO Control .305 .174 -4.87 -6.27 -19.31 -22.48 45.8 60 67
jULY 1957 JEROME SPAR 13

---r----
''

I
I
I
:
I'

.----l---------~35°

FIG. 8. Composite map, average 24-hr precipitation in region Ia for 19 seeded cases. Isohyets in inches.
Period begins at zero hour.

by the method of analysis of covariance [2]. The
covariates for which adjustments were to be made
were selected prior to the experiment, although
additional covariates were selected after the first
season. It is the function of the covariates to eliminate
the scatter of the test variates that are due to non-
treatment causes. Thus, in a sense the covariates are
predictors. If the covariates are effective, they in-
crease the sensitivity and precision of the experiment
by reducing the error variance. They also help to
14 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS VoL. 2, No. 11

minimize bias in the comparison of the seeded and un-
seeded samples resulting from inherent, non-treatment
differences which have not been completely eliminated
by randomization.
The circulation index, M, at zero hour was specified
initially as the covariate for all test parameters since
it was expected that strong southerly wind components
at 700 mb (i.e., large M) would be associated with
heavier precipitation and more intense cyclogenesis
than would light southerly wind components.

FIG. 9. Composite map, average 24-hr precipitation in region Ia for 18 control cases.
jULY 1957 JEROME SPAR 15

FIG. 10. Composite map, average 24-hr sea level pressure change in region I
for 19 seeded cases. lsallobars in mb. Period begins at zero hour.

Before the beginning of the second season of seeding,
several covariates were added after extensive testing
of numerous predictors. The new covariates were PI
and Pmi, which were used only in the analysis of
PII and Pmii, a quantity designated L, which is a
measure of the latitude of the cyclone, and a quantity
called T, which represents the divergence of the
water vapor flux in the east coastal region. The use
of PI as a covariate for PII simply makes use of the
continuity of pressure systems.
The covariate L was measured by drawing a per-
pendicular from the cyclone center (or 3-hr katallo-
baric center if no cyclone had formed) on the zero
hour map to a line drawn between Burwood, La. and
Nantucket, Mass. The distance from Burwood to the
point of intersection was defined as L. It was expected
that more precipitation would occur with low values
of L than with high values since the rainfall intensities
are generally greater in low latitude cyclones. Also,
the duration of the ram m the east coastal region

FIG. 11. Composite map, average 24-hr sea level pressure change in region I
for 18 control cases.
16 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS VoL. 2, No. 11

in Greenwich Mean Time. Seeded cases are designated

S and control cases C. The total amount of dry ice
dispensed on each seeding mission is given in pounds.
The precipitation amounts, RI, RII and Rt, are
expressed in inches. The pressure changes PI, PI I,
Pmi and Pmii are in millibars. The terms M, T and
Tt are expressed merely as relative numbers with no
dimensional significance. The length L is in tens of
miles. Data for the first season is designated Experi-
ment ONE, the second season Experiment TWO.
The statistical significance of the differences be-
tween the means of the seeded and control samples in
table 1 is discussed in the next section. For the present
it may be noted that the differences are remarkably
small.
The mean value is a coarse quantity which does
not reveal differences of distribution, and it must be
recognized that seeding may affect the distributions
of the test variates without affecting their mean
values. There are apparently no statistical techniques
for testing the significance of the difference between
two spatial distributions. Nevertheless, it is of interest
to compare the composite distributions of the pre-
cipitation and of the pressure changes in the seeded

FIG. 12. Composite map, average 24-hr sea level pressure change
in region II for 19 seeded cases. Period begins at 0+12 hr.

would be greater in low than in high latitudes.

The parameter L was used as a covariate for the
analysis of RI and RII.
The net geostrophic influx of water vapor across
the boundaries of a hexagon, whose vertices are the
radiosonde stations used to measure M, was computed
at the 1000, 850, 700, 500 and 400 mb levels from the
radiosonde data and interpolated to zero hour. The
covariate, T, defined as the sum of the net water
vapor influx values at these five standard levels, was
also employed as a covariate for RI and RII.
The target area precipitation, Rt, should depend
on the net influx of water vapor over the target area
rather than over the entire east coastal region. There-
fore, a modified form of T, designated Tt, was com-
puted for that half of the hexagon containing the
target area (region 4 in fig. 4) and was used as a co-
variate for the analysis of Rt.

3. Experimental data
A complete tabulation of the cases selected for the
experiment together with the test variates and co- FIG. 13. Composite map, average 24-hr sea level pressure change
variates is given in table 1. The zero hours are given in region II for 18 control cases.
JuLY 1957 JEROME SPAR 17

FIG. 14. Zero hour and 0+24 hr surface weather maps for case no. 8, 0630 GMT, 12 F ebruary 1953. Stippled areas:
Precipitation. Broken arrows: F light tracks. Hatching: Dry ice seeding.
18 METEOROLOGICAL
and control cases, although such comparisons must be
qualitative and subjective.
Figures 8 and 9 show the distribution of average
precipitation for 24 hr following zero hour along
the east coast (region Ia) for the 19 seeded and 18 con-
trol cases, respectively. Similarities between the two
composite maps are more striking than the differences.
The maxima occur in about the same locations and
have about the same magnitudes, although in the
seeded cases the maximum average precipitation was
greater than in the control cases.
The composite 24-hr sea level pressure change
fields for the period beginning at zero hour in the
east coastal region (region I) are shown in fig. 10 and
11 for the seeded and control cases, respectively.
The katallobaric centers are found in about the same
locations on both maps. However, the composite
maximum pressure change was larger in the control
cases (-12.5mb) than in the seeded cases ( -8.8 mb).
On the other hand, it can be seen from table 1 that
the averages of the maximum pressure changes (Pmi)
were almost identical in both the seeded and control
groups (-19.30 and -19.31 mb, respectively). Thus
the disparity of the composite maxima is apparently
an accident of distribution.
The composite pressure change fields in region II
for 24 hr beginning at 0 + 12 hr are shown in fig. 12
and 13 for the seeded and control samples. As might
be expected, these charts are quite similar to fig. 10
and 11. Larger maximum pressure changes are found
in the control group ( -11.4 mb) than in the seeded
group ( -8.6 mb). However, the averages of the
maximum pressure changes (Pmii in table 1) are
again almost identical for the seeded and control
groups (-22.98 and -22.48 mb, respectively), so
that it is difficult to attach any significance to the
differences of the composite maxima.
Detailed descriptions of the in-flight weather con-
ditions, seeding procedures and synoptic situations
for each of the 37 cases are available [6; 7]. Only a
brief summary of some of these data will be given here.
In the first year the maximum flight altitude for
the P4Y aircraft was 16,000 ft, but more than 50 per
cent of the flight time over the targets was at altitudes
below 13,000 ft. Maximum flight altitude for the
P2V airplanes was 25,000 ft and more than 50 per
cent of the P2V flight time was at altitudes greater
than 18,000 ft. The P2V aircraft began participating
with flight no. 15 and the last three flights of the
season were flown with P2V airplanes only. More
than half the P4Y flight time was at temperatures
greater than -4C, whereas more than half the P2V
flight time was at temperatures below -12C.
Only P2V airplanes were used in the second season,
MONOGRAPHS VoL. 2, No. 11
and the flight altitudes and temperatures were similar
to those of the P2V aircraft in the first season. Rain
or snow was encountered 29 per cent of the time by
the P4Y airplanes, while the P2V flights experienced
rain or snow only 8 per cent of the time during the
first season and hardly at all the second season. The
P2V aircraft were able to maintain altitude on top
of the clouds most of the time. Icing was reported on
13 per cent of the P4Y aerological reports the first
season, while only 5 per cent of the P2V reports
mentioned icing. Only light rime icing conditions
were encountered the second season.
Visible cloud modification due to seeding was ob-
served by the flight aerologists on only two occasions,
11 and 26 February 1954. Opportunities for observing
cloud modification were often poor the first season
when flights were frequently conducted in the clouds.
In both cases the precipitation was extremely light
throughout the target region and virtually no rain
fell along the seeded track.
A typical first season seeding operation is illustrated
by case no. 8, zero hour 0630 GMT, 12 February 1953.
The seeding track selected was Raleigh, N. C. to
Lakehurst, N.J. to Quonset Point, R. I. to Lakehurst
to Norfolk, Va. The surface weather maps and flight
tracks for this case are shown in fig. 14. All ground
generators operated on schedule between 0630 and
1830 GMT. The lead phine of the flight was unable
to participate due to a fuel leak. Extracts from the
post-flight reports from the aerologists in the two
P4Y airplanes which completed the mission are
given below.
(1) "Departed Jacksonville 0413 GMT as eastern plane of
flight. Commenced seeding 0659 GMT at 15,000 ft, tem-
perature -2C in snow and rain. At 0700 GMT severe
icing and turbulence-unable to maintain altitude. De-
scended to 9000 ft (temperature +1C) to melt ice; dis-
continued seeding. Resumed seeding 0755 GMT over
Chincoteague after climb to 11,000 ft, temperature -1.3C.
Between Chincoteague and (40°58'N, 70°40'W) and return
to Patuxent River, ideal conditions existed along route
and continuous dispensing operations were conducted.
Temperatures varied from -2 to -SC with frequent
instrument weather in clouds, rain and snow. Moderate
icing and turbulence along most of route. Discontinued
seeding at 1220 GMT to land at Patuxent River for fuel.
Total seeding time, 4 hr 52 min. Total quantity of dry ice
dispensed, 900 lb."
(2) "Departed Jacksonville 0440 GMT as western plane of
flight. Began seeding 0741 GMT at 15,000 ft, temperature
-9C. Instrument flight in clouds and snow. Light icing
necessitated descent to 13,000 ft at 0800 GMT. Tempo-
rary shutdown of dispensing equipment at 1025 GMT due
to fuel transfer. Resumed seeding at 1105 GMT, snow
showers and moderate icing. Discontinued seeding at 1155
GMT .. Total dispensing time, 3 hr 24 min. Dispensed 470
lb of dry ice."
jULY 1957 JEROME SPAR 19

FIG. 15. Zero hour and 0+24 hr surface weather maps for case no. 29, 1830 GMT, 11 February 1954.
Target area 4 outlined on zero hour map.
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(c)

F IG. 16. Flight weather cross-sections showing seeding conditions along (a) red, (b) blue and (c) green tracks. Case 29, 1830 GMT,
11 February 1954. Target a rea 4. Altitude in t housands of feet. Horizontal d istances in miles.
20
JULY 1957
FIG. 17. Cloud line development following seeding with dry ice at 19,000 ft near Pulaski, Va. 2037 GMT, 11 February 1954.
The seeding procedure in the second season is
illustrated by case no. 29, zero hour 1830 GMT,
11 February 1954. All ground generators except
Sanford, Fla., operated on schedule between 1830
GMT 11 February and 0630 GMT 12 February.
Target area 4 was selected for the dry ice seeding.
The three P2V aircraft dispensed a total of 6750 lb
of dry ice in the target area. The weather maps and
flight cross sections for this case are shown in fig. 15
and 16. On this flight a trail of clouds developed
behind the seeding airplanes in the form of a wall
several thousand feet high and one to three miles
wide. The induced cloud trail is shown in fig. 17.
4. Statistical results
The am ;sis of covariance adjusts the sample
means for the effects of covariates and provides
confidence limits on the differences between the "true"
means of the seeded and control samples.
The statistical analysis of precipitation was applied
to the logarithms of the precipitation amounts on the
assumption that the effect of seeding should be pro-
portional to the precipitation itself and not merely
TABLE 2. Means a nd 95 per cent confidence limits for precipitation variates in inches.
Variate RI
T reatment Seeded
Observed geomet ric mean 0.224
Adjusted geometric mean 0.220
95 per cent confidence limits 0.66 < (S/C) < 1.35
JEROME SPAR 21
additive. The confidence limits on the differences of
the means of logarithms have been converted into
confidence limits on the ratios of the "true" geometric
means of the seeded and control groups. The observed
arithmetic means have already been given in table 1.
The observed and adjusted geometric means and the
95 per cent confidence limits are given in table 2 for
RI, RII and Rt. Thirty-six cases were used for the
analysis· of RI and RII, the one incomplete block,
case 21, having been discarded. Only the 16 cases of
the second season were used for the analysis of Rt.
The data for RI in table 2 indicate that, after
adjustments have been made for covariates, the
mean precipitation is slightly greater in the control
cases, and there is only about 1 chance in 20 that
seeding either increased the precipitation more than
35 per cent or decreased it more than 34 per cent.
Similar results are found for RII, with greater
precipitation in the control cases and the 95 per cent
confidence interval lying between an increase of 39
per cent and a decrease of 68 per cent. In the case of
Rt, the residual variance is so large and the confidence
interval so broad that the experiment provides vir-
RII Rt
Control Seeded Control Seeded Control
0.229 0.088 0.107 0.217 0.278
0.233 0.079 0.118 0.225 0.268
0.32 < (S/ C) < 1.39 0.20 < (S/C) <3.52
22 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS
TABLE 3. Adjusted means and 95 per cent confidence limits for pressure change variates in millibars.
Variate PI Pml
Treatment Seeded Control Seeded
Adjusted mean -3.65 -5.30 -19.61
95 percent con-
fidence limits -2.55 < (S-C) <5.85 -5.37 < (5-C) <4.94
tually no information with respect to target area
effects.
In general, the differences between the precipitation
variates in the seeded and control cases are not sta-
tistically significant. Thus the null hypothesis with
regard to precipitation cannot be rejected.
The results of the analysis of the pressure change
variates are shown in table 3. The incomplete block
was again discarded leaving 36 cases. Observed un-
adjusted means have already been given in table 1.
Adjusted means and confidence limits are given in
table 3.
It is apparent from table 3 that the differences
between the means of the seeded and control cases
are not statistically significant. The confidence inter-
vals indicate that there is only 1 chance in 20 that
seeding changed the 24 hr sea level pressure changes
by more than about ±5 mb. The null hypothesis with
regard to pressure changes thus cannot be rejected
by the experiment.
Although the statistics do not permit rejection of
the null hypothesis, they do not preclude the possi-
bility that effects exist. It is possible that seeding
may produce different effects in different situations
so that the effect on the mean values may be quite
small. However, one would then expect the sample
variance to be greater in the seeded than in the con-
trol cases. The ratios of the seeded to control variances
were computed for all the test variates. Every variance
ratio but one proved to be insignificant at the 5 per
cent level. The one exception was PII, which suggests
a possible hypothesis for future experiments.
It is apparent that the seeding in this experiment
failed to produce any effects which were large enough
to be detected against the background of natural
meteorological variance. The small differences be-
tween the means of the seeded and control samples
indicate the unlikelihood that any large scale effects
were produced. Narrower confidence intervals, and
hence greater precision, are obviously desirable.
Increased precision is usually obtainable by increasing
the sample size.
The variation of the length of the confidence
interval with sample size was estimated on the as-
sumption that the residual variance, based on the two
VoL. 2, No. 11
PI! Pm!I
Control Seeded Control Seeded Control
-19.31 -5.87 -5.87 -23.33 -22.60
- 5.21 < (S-C) < 4.89 -4.80 < (S-C) <3.34
years of data, would remain constant with the addition
of more cases. Using the data for RI, it was found
that the addition of 9 pairs of cases, which might
reasonably be expected in one more year of seeding,
would shrink the confidence interval by an effect of
approximately 10 per cent. Assuming no difference
between the adjusted means, the data would then
reject (at the 5 per cent level) the possibility that
seeding increased precipitation more than 33 per cent,
whereas at present only increases greater than 43 per
cent could be excluded if the means were equal. The
smaller increase shown in table 2 is due to the fact
that the adjusted precipitation was greater in the
control cases. If it is desired to detect or exclude the
possibility of a 20 per cent increase of RI rainfall by
seeding, a total of 67 pairs of cases would be needed.
This would require about 5 more years of seeding.
A similar analysis applied to Pmi shows that one
more year of experimentation would probably reduce
the length of the confidence interval from 10 to about
8 mb. Expressed in terms of the relative effect this
means that, while it may be concluded that seeding
did not alter the maximum pressure change more
than about 26 per cent, another year of experimenta-
tion would permit acceptance or rejection of the
probability of a 21 per cent effect. If a goal is set for
a confidence interval of 5 mb, approximately six more
years of experimentation would be required if detec-
tion of effects greater than ±2.5 mb (about 13 per
cent of the present mean value of Pmi) is desired.
Since the length of the confidence interval varies
approximately as the reciprocal of the square root of
the number of cases, the increase in precision associ-
ated with the addition of cases is relatively slow. In
addition, the very small observed differences between
the means of seeded and control cases indicated that
continuation of the experiment in its original form
was unwarranted. The experiment was therefore
terminated after the second season with the conclusion
that there was no evidence of any large scale meteor-
ological effects due to seeding.
The data are still being searched for results that
may not have been anticipated in the design of the
experiment. If any are found, they may provide the
}ULY 1957 JEROME
basis for the formulation of new hypotheses for new
experiments.
Acknowledgments-The cooperation of all those who
contributed to Project Scud is gratefully acknowledged.
Special thanks are extended to Mr. Edwin L. Fisher
of New York University and Cdr. Charles E. Tilden,
the Navy Project Officer, who assisted the writer in
the organization and direction of the experiment.
The technical assistance of AGC Howard J. Wells,
who, with Cdr. Tilden, provided for the maintenance
and supply of the silver iodide smoke generators, was
also invaluable.
The design of the experiment bears the unmistakable
imprint of Dr. John W. Tukey of Princeton University
who, together with Drs. Robert Hooke, Forman S.
Acton and Richard Link of the Analytical Research
Group, Princeton, N.J., guided the experiment down
the treacherous channels of statistical evaluation.
The author is also grateful to the anonymous com-
puters of the Analytical Research Group for their
labors on the analysis of covariance.
The project would not have been possible without
the splendid cooperation of Navy Weather Squadron
Two, later Navy Airborne Early Warning Squadron
Four, which conducted the aircraft operations and
dry ice seeding. To Cdrs. D. J. Walkinshaw and L. V.
Dachs, and all the officers and men of the squadron,
is due a special acknowledgment for participating in
an unusually hazardous operation.
Among the forecasters who assisted in the selection
of cases, the following should be mentioned: Messrs.
Peter E. Kraght, Emil Koehler and Robert Fuller of
American Airlines, and Norman Huseby and Robert
Bailey of Eastern Air Lines.
Precipitation data from cooperative weather sta-
tions were provided by the United States Weather
Bureau through the cooperation of Mr. Leslie Smith,
Supervisor, National Weather Records Center, Ashe-
ville, N. C.
The advice of Dr. Vincent J. Schaefer was helpful
SPAR 23
in the design of the experiment and in the technical
aspects of the seeding.
The staff of the project at New York University
included Messrs. Emanuel Ballenzweig, William
Bornstein, Gardner Emmons, Robert G. Miller,
Ernest Paroczay, Rudolph Perchal, Roy E. Peterson
and Gunther Reiss. Miss Joan Cipley drafted the
figures. Professors James E. Miller and Richard J.
Schotland of New York University and Professor
Seymour Hess of Florida State University contributed
helpful advice.
The project was greatly assisted also by the mem-
bers of the Committee on Artificial Cloud Nuclea-
tion, especially Drs. Sverre Petterssen and Max A.
Woodbury.
REFERENCES
1. Cunningham, R. M., and D. Atlas, 1954: Growth of hydro-
meteors as calculated from aircraft and radar observations.
Proc. Toronto meteor. Conf. 1953, 276-289.
2. Fisher, R. A., 1932: Statistical Methods for Research Workers.
Oliver and Boyd, Ltd., Edinburgh.
3. - - , 1947: The Design of Experiments. Oliver and Boyd,
Ltd., Edinburgh.
4. Langmuir, 1., 1951: Cloud seeding by means of dry ice, silver
iodide and sodium chloride. Trans. N. Y. Acad. Sci., 14,
40-44.
5. - - , 1953: Analysis of the effects of periodic seeding of the
atmosphere with silver iodide. Final Report, Project Cir-
rus, Part II, Report No. RL-785, Contract No. DA-
36-039-SC-15345, General Electric Research Laboratory,
Schenectady, N.Y.
6. Spar, J., 1953: An experiment in large scale cloud seeding in
the east coastal region of the United States. Tech. Rep.
No. 1, Project Scud, Contract No. Nonr-285(09), New
York University.
7. - - , 1954: An experiment in large scale cloud seeding in
the east coastal region of the United States. Analysis of
experimental data for January-April 1954. Tech. Rep.
No. 2, Project Scud, Contract No. Nonr-285(09), New
York University.
8. Vonnegut, B., 1951: Silver iodide smokes. Final Report, Project
Cirrus, Report No. RL-566, Contract No. W-36-039-SC-
38141, General Electric Research Laboratory, Schnectady,
N.Y.
CLOUD AND WEATHER MODIFICATION:
a group of field experiments
by
S. Petterssen; }. Spar; F. Hall;
R. R. Braham, Jr., L. }. Battan, and H. R. Byers;
H.}. aufm Kampe,}.}. Kelly, and H. K. Weickmann.

III. THE WEATHER BUREAU ACN PROJECT

By FERGUSON HALL
United States Weather Bureau
(Manuscript received 3 April 1956)

ABSTRACT
The Weather Bureau has completed a field program in western Washington to investigate the applica-
bility of cloud seeding techniques in migratory cloud systems associated with middle latitude cyclonic
activity. The project was designed to give statistically valid estimates of the effects of seeding with dry ice
from aircraft, as well as affording surveys of cloud structure with particular reference to natural precipitation
mechanisms and seeding potentialities. A number of statistical evaluations have been carried out and, con-
sidered as a whole, do not show significant results from the seeding. However, because of the margin of
uncertainty present, none of the evaluations excluded the possibility of limited effects. The cloud surveys
suggested that favorable seeding opportunities were somewhat infrequent due to th~ abundance of natural
ice crystals in the deeper cloud Ia yers.

1. Introduction realizable by presently known cloud seeding tech-

This report describes a project of the United States
Weather Bureau related to the applicability of cloud
seeding techniques in the migratory cloud systems
associated with middle latitude cyclonic activity.
The project was called the Weather Bureau Artificial
Cloud Nucleation Project (ACN Project).
The cyclonic storm system represents one of the
major sources of precipitable water, with its deep and
extensive cloud system; and it was thought that such
systems might contain a significant fraction of the
cloud seeding potential in many middle latitude
regions. Also, many claims of achieving large scale
results from the seeding of these storm systems had
been made. In consequence, it appeared desirable to
see whether these storms did contain an untapped
source of rainfall and whether increases or decreases
in precipitation could be readily produced in amounts
which could be detected under the limitations of
measurement and analysis.
The extent to which precipitation might be in-
creased by cloud seeding methods appears to be
governed by two limiting factors. The first of these
is what might be termed the seeding potential; that
is, the precipitable water in the air passing over an
area which will not be realized at the ground through
natural processes, but which might be considered
24
niques in accordance with current knowledge of pre-
cipitation mechanisms. Of the total water content of
the air, only two portions are usually considered to
fall into this category: (1) moisture in the form of
condensed cloud droplets which are too small to fall
to the ground and which are not subject to natural
coagulation processes, and (2) that portion of the
vapor content of the air above the freezing level
which corresponds to the difference between the vapor
pressures over ice and water. The second limitation
on increasing precipitation is the availability of a
satisfactory seeding method by which the seeding
potential can be exploited.
In order to explore the applicability of cloud seeding
in the specified cloud systems as fully as possible, the
project was carried out along two lines. First, in
order to investigate the seeding potential of the storms,
the structure of the cloud systems was examined in
detail, with particular attention to the natural pre-
cipitation mechanisms and efficiency, and to the need
for additional ice crystal nuclei in the different
situations encountered. As a second approach, sus-
tained seeding of the cloud systems was carried out
in an attempt to realize, in the form of rainfall reaching
the ground, whatever seeding potential was contained
m the cloud systems. The results of this latter ap-
jULY 1957 FERGUSON
proach would, of course, depend upon both the seeding
potential and the efficiency of the particular seeding
technique employed.
2. Locale of. experiments
The program was carried out in the southwestern
portion of the State of Washington and the north-
western portion of the State of Oregon. This area was
chosen because of the high frequency of occurrence
of storms and because the area was relatively free
from the possibility of artificial nucleation from other
seeding operations upwind. The main disadvantage
of the location lay in the rugged terrain over much of
the experimental area and the resulting orographic
rainfall patterns which had to be distinguished from
the effects of cloud seeding.
A relief map of western Washington and extreme
northwestern Oregon is shown in fig. 1. The project
FIG. 1. Relief map of Washington and northern Oregon, with experimental area outlined.
HALL 25
experimental area is outlined in white and is seen to
be bounded on the west by the coastline and on the
east by the ridge of the Cascade Mountains. On the
north, it skirts the southern edge of the Olympic
Mountains and includes the Puget Sound area. On
the south, it extends a short distance into north-
western Oregon (actually about 15 mi below the
bottom of the figure). The area extends about 200 mi
in a north-south direction and about 130 mi east-west,
affording room both for cloud seeding test areas and
for surrounding control areas over which the normal
rainfall patterns could be observed. Figure 2 is a map
of the area showing locations of rain gages, as well as
the location of the project headquarters at Seattle
and the radar site at Hoquiam.
Rainfall is generally plentiful in the area, with
amounts reaching 80 or 90 in. per yr along the coast.
Values decrease inland, however, and reach moderate
values along the valley which runs between Seattle
26 METEOROLOG ICAL MONOGRAPHS VoL. 2, No. 11

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ACN PROJECT U. S. WEATHER BUREAU
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FIG. 2. Map of experimental area showing location of recording rain gages, project headquarters, and radar station.
jULY 1957 FERGUSON HALL
and Portland. Farther to the east, the amounts in-
crease again on the slopes of the Cascade Mountains.
North of the experimental area, precipitation is very
intense, reaching over 160 in. per yr in the Olympic
Mountains. Normal precipitation for the October-
April period is shown in fig. 3.
The climate is characterized by rainy winters and
dry summers. Temperatures at the lower elevations
remain moderate, usually well above freezing, through-
out the winter. Cloudy and rainy days are very
frequent in the winter and as a rule are associated
with middle latitude cyclones moving in from the
Pacific Ocean. Between storm systems, there is
usually considerable cumulus activity with partly
cloudy skies. A large fraction of the annual rainfall
occurs during the October-April period, with virtually
none in the summer, except in the mountains where
showers and thunderstorms are not infrequent.
The clouds studied were those associated with
fronts and low pressure systems which entered the
area, usually from the ocean, and were primarily of a
stratiform character although often containing cumu-
liform developments. In general, they were of the
type commonly associated with winter storms, in-
volving extensive overcast conditions, low ceilings
and rather persistent precipitation. Isolated cumulus
and cumulonimbus were not included in the seeding
program.
3. Equipment and facilities
For measurement of rainfall, the existing network
of recording rain gages was augmented to provide
approximately 100 stations. These are shown in fig. 2.
Most stations were operated by voluntary cooperative
observers. Wherever possible, the new recording gages
were located at the sites of pre-existing nonrecording
gages, where historical rainfall records would be
available.
A radar station was established at Hoquiam, on
the central Washington coast (fig. 2), for storm
observation and for detection of cloud seeding effects.
Two radar sets were employed, one operating on a
wave length of 0.85 em, for cloud observation, and
the second on a wave length in the 5 em band for
observing precipitation. The cloud radar employed a
very narrow beam which was fixed in a vertical
position and recorded on a facsimile device a time
cross section of the clouds passing over the station.
During moderate or heavy rainfall, the beam suffered
attenuation and observations in such cases were
limited to the lower 15,000 or 20,000 ft. In the absence
of such precipitation, however, the cloud records
were quite satisfactory. This radar was used primarily
27
to provide a documentary record of the cloud condi-
tions during seeding test periods, but it was also of
great value in studying the general aspects of storm
structure.
The second radar was capable of both PPI (plan
position indication) and RHI (range height indication)
presentations. The set was normally operated to give
PPI, and scope photographs were taken at intervals
of 15 sec throughout all operations and during storm
passages. At frequent intervals, the PPI was tempo-
rarily interrupted, and RHI photographs were taken
at 10° azimuth intervals throughout sectors of interest.
Two Lockheed PV-2 patrol bombers were used in
the project. These planes were loaned by the Navy
and were operated by the Weather Bureau. Instru-
ments were installed in each plane to measure the
basic properties of the cloud systems which would bear
on the physics of natural precipitation processes and on
the potentialities for artificial nucleation. A multi-
channel recorder on each plane provided measure-
ments of temperature, air speed and pressure-altitude
at 10 sec intervals. The rate of icing, convertible into
the subcooled liquid water content of the clouds, was
continuously measured with NACA pressure type
icing-rate meters and recorded on the same chart.
Also recorded were the temperature of the leading
edge of the heated wing, which served as a sensitive
cloud detector, and a qualitative record of turbulence.
Details of cloud composition were obtained by fre-
quent sampling of cloud elements with slides coated
with magnesium oxide for cloud droplets and coated
with a formvar solution for ice crystals and snow-
flakes. Comprehensive logs of cloud conditions were
kept by the flight meteorologists, and were supple-
mented, when possible, by cloud photographs.
4. Cloud seeding procedure
Dry ice seeding from aircraft was used exclusively
during the tests. The possibility of using ground based
silver iodide generators, as commonly used in com-
mercial undertakings, was considered during the
planning stage, since their use would have sub-
stantially reduced the cost and complexity of the
program. However, it was considered necessary to
know the exact position of the seeding treatment to
permit location of the resulting effects, if any, on the
ground. Seeding from aircraft seemed to offer a practi-
cal way of accomplishing this and avoiding the un-
certainties of diffusion, wash-out and deterioration
of smoke released from the ground. Dual omni-range
navigational equipment installed in each plane per-
mitted continuous precise navigation under all con-
ditions, so that location of the seeding was known at
28 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS VoL. 2, No. 11

FIG. 3. Normal October-April rainfa ll in experimental area. Units are inches of rainfall.
}ULY 1957 FERGUSON HALL
all times. Originally it was intended to make separate
tests of dry ice and silver iodide smoke dispensed
from the planes; however, it appeared that there
might be an insufficient number of trials to permit
dividing the seeding into two types. Dry ice was
selected since it would presumably work over a wider
temperature range and was considered a more positive
method than using the aircraft silver iodide generators
which had been built but which had not been ade-
quately tested under flight conditions.
Rates of seeding varied between 0.5 and 2 lb of dry
ice per mi. During part of the program, an instanta-
neous rate of 4 lb per mi was employed, but the seeding
was done intermittently by dispensing for 5 sec at
30 sec intervals. The dry ice was dispensed auto-
matically with a screwfeed mechanism.
Identification of the effects of seeding simple
uniform stratus layers, including the production of
troughs and holes and accompanying precipitation,
is usually straightforward, and relatively brief seeding
trials are sufficient to determine the reaction of partic-
ular clouds. However, where the results are to be
determined from rain gage records, and where the
deeper and more complex cloud systems are to be
seeded, it is more difficult to separate artificial from
natural effects, and it is desirable to accentuate the
seeding effects by continuous or repetitive trials.
This was accomplished by seeding repeatedly, as the
plane flew back and forth between two fixed points
on the ground. These seeding operations were planned
for a 4 hr period on each occasion, although it often
happened that the runs were shortened by deteriora-
SEEDING
LINE
WIND-
m77777777177m777m771l777771///lll//
FIG. 4. Vertical cross-section normal to seeding line showing tilt of ice crystal curtains produced
by wind shear. Section extends over 1 hr wind travel at seeding level.
29
tion of cloud conditions. Many of the cloud systems
were quite narrow and difficult to forecast, and con-
siderable effort was required to schedule operations
to coincide with optimum conditions. Seeding lines
of 40-mi and 20-mi lengths were used, the seeding
runs being repeated at approximately 12 min and 6
min, respectively. Turns at the end of the seeding
line were made upwind, and the plane then took
up a heading which, combined with crosswind drift,
would bring it over the far terminus of the seeding
line. This procedure produced approximately parallel
seeded lines in the clouds.
The extent to which dry ice seeding in such a
fashion will reach the entire cloud mass moving in
across the seeding line will depend in part upon the
action of the vertical wind shear in spreading the
artificially created ice crystals. The dry ice dropped
on a particular passage along the line will create a
vertical sheet or "curtain" of ice crystals down to the
melting level. Based on the observation of visual
effects, this curtain can be expected to thicken to a
width of about 3 mi after approximately 0.5 hr. If there
were no change in wind speed or direction between the
seeding and melting levels, this curtain would simply
drift along with the wind and remain in a vertical
position. If the wind direction should be the same at
both levels, but if the wind speed were greater at the
seeding level, then the curtain would progressively
tilt in the downwind direction, being deformed by
the wind shear. Depending upon the strength of the
shear and the elapsed time, the curtains could be
expected to tilt sufficiently to overlap each other,
ONE HOUR
AFTER SEEDING
--SEEDING LEVEL
--0°C,
SURFACE
30 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS VoL. 2, No. 11

and thus be effective in seeding the portions of the pieces of dry ice. However, since the success of seeding
clouds lying between successive initial seeding lines. is also dependent upon the presence of an adequate
Changes in wind direction between the seeding and moisture supply, it would appear that the effective-
melting levels would produce a lateral distortion of ness of the tilting mechanism would increase with the
the curtains but would not change the extent of seeding potential of the clouds.
overlap at right angles to the seeding line. The overlap
would be governed by the component of the wind 5. Operational design
shear normal to the seeding line. The tilting and
overlap of successive curtains are illustrated in fig. 4, Statistical design was utilized throughout the proj-
which shows a vertical cross section at right angles ect in order to insure that the maximum amount of
to the seeding line and extending 1 hr downwind at unbiased information would be realized from the
the seeding level. As a measure of this effect, the cloud seeding tests. This design included publication
ratios between distance a (the shear distance) and of the specifications of the operating procedure and
distance b (the separation of seeding curtains at the the primary methods by which the data would be
melting level) are given for the operating periods in evaluated in advance of actual operations. During
table 1. It is seen that in many of the cases the tilt operations, the seeding trials were fully randomized
was quite effective in providing seeding coverage in order to assure as valid interpretation of the
between the seeded lines. results of the tests as possible, regardless of incomplete
The duration of effective seeding by tilting of control over all of the conditions of the operations.
curtains ;will depend upon the longevity of artificially The storm systems were divided into two groups, one
produced ice crystals. Virtually nothing is known in group was seeded and the other was left untreated as
this regard, but similar curtains are observed to a statistical control. The selection of cases for the two
occur in nature and appear to have a life of about 1 groups was determined solely by a random process.
hr. A great deal undoubtedly depends upon the For this purpose, the National Bureau of Standards
structure of the seeded cloud and whether there is prepared a packet of small opaque envelopes, num-
sufficient moisture available to permit the continued bered serially, and each containing a slip of paper
existence of the billions of crystals, without evapora- which also bore the serial number and on which was
tion, that are produced in the wake of the falling typed the word "yes" or the word "no." These
instructions were prepared by a modified random
TABLE 1. Ratios between a and b of fig. 4 for operating periods. process by Standards, according to the Weather
Multiple values for particular cases are due to changes in Bureau request that there be substantially more "yes"
seeding altitude, changing wind conditions, etc.
than "no" instructions (approximately a 2 to 1 ratio),
Date Ratio Date Ratio and that long runs of either type should be avoided.
The exact ratio employed and the exact restriction
24 March 53 1.16 31 Dec. 53 3.26
1.27 5.71 on runs were not known to the operating staff. The
13 April 53 .40 3.83 system proved to be quite effective, and attempts by
16 April 53 2.60 11 Feb. 54 3.88
2.02 3.27 various staff members to prognosticate the contents
9 Oct. 53 1.46 0.30 of particular envelopes showed no skill.
.73 12 Feb. 54 2.83
4 Nov. 53 2.20 1.40 Daily operations were conducted as follows: A call
1.27 1.83 was made to the Weather Bureau station at the
11 Nov. 53 0.70 15 Feb. 54 3.91
2.17 3.73 Seattle-Tacoma airport at 0300 PST each morning
13 Nov. 53 0.09 5.19 for a briefing on the prospects for suitable cloud con-
0.14 18 Feb. 54 9.01
18 Nov. 53 40.61 22.61 ditions. If the prospects were at all promising, the
5.92 20 Feb. 54 12.57 radar meteorologist at Hoquiam was immediately
1 Dec. 53 10.14 1.75
23.36 1.02 called and requested to start radar observations as
3.30 2 April 54 11.10 soon as he could reach the station. The flight crew
2.55 6.40
4 Dec. 53 1.40 10.17 for the day was also called to the field. The hourly
1. 77 4.20 weather reports were then carefully noted, as well
1.84 4 April 54 0.74
11 Dec. 53 2.73 2.67 as reports from the radar station, and the flight was
0.92 0.86 initiated as soon as it became definite that a storm
1.24 5 April 54 None
0.60 12 April 54 6.49 system was approaching. Preflight of the aircraft and
0.59 6.31 the loading of dry ice and other supplies took about
23 Dec. 53 0.04 7.88
1.58 an hour and a half. Take-off was often delayed by
traffic congestion (caused by the approaching storm)
jULY 1957 FERGUSON HALL
but usually did not last over 20 min. Approximately
1 hr was required to negotiate the Seattle traffic con-
trol area and to reach the proposed seeding location
(normally near the coastline to the south of Hoquiam).
Prior to take-off a line of position along which seeding
would be carried out was selected on the basis of the
latest upper wind reports and the anticipated seeding
level, and was furnished to the flight crew. Flight
crews consisted of pilot, co-pilot, flight engineer, and
flight meteorologist.
When the plane reached the area selected, radio
communication was established with the radar sta-
tion, and the plane conducted a cloud reconnaissance
in the general area and westward over the ocean to
determine the nature and magnitude of the storm
system. Particular attention was paid to whether the
clouds were increasing or decreasing in thickness,
whether subcooled water could be detected, and the
extent of cloud cover. The resulting information was
radioed to the radar site which relayed it to project
headquarters along with the latest radar weather
picture. On the basis of this information and any
later synoptic reports and forecasts which were avail-
able, a decision was made on the suitability for
seeding. If it was decided that conditions were ap-
propriate, the situation was declared to be a test
unit, and the sealed envelope was opened by the
Hoquiam CAA office. If the instruction was yes,
seeding was immediately begun and carried out ac-
cording to plan; if no, the plane flew an exact simulated
mission nevertheless, taking the same observations as
would have been taken on a seeding operation. In all
aspects, both seeded and unseeded (control) cases
were handled in exactly the same manner (except for
the seeding), and evaluation of the seeding effect was
based solely on the difference in the response of the
precipitation between the two sets of cases. If condi-
tions were found to be unsuitable over the area, but
there was a prospect that they would improve from
the seeding standpoint, the plane was instructed to
land at Hoquiam and await the arrival of more suit-
able cloud conditions.
6. Suitability and representativeness of cloud con-
ditions
Making a decision to declare a particular situation
as appropriate for a seeding trial was a critical and
difficult task. Usually there were little satisfactory
synoptic data over the ocean to the west and there
was virtually no way of estimating the width of the
cloud system or its duration over the seeding area.
Most help in this regard came from the radar weather
observations, but these usually did not extend out
31
more than 100 mi. Also, it had been found that the
deep solid cloud systems associated with fronts and
cyclones were often quite limited in east-west extent
and often lasted no more than 3 or 4 hr. For this
reason, it was considered important to begin the test
period just as soon as a reasonably thick cloud had
moved in, in order to have the best chance of a com-
plete 4-hr run. Accordingly, cloud systems were
selected for consideration as soon as it was judged
that they were actually associated with a storm
system, even though subcooled liquid water had not
been detected in any of the clouds. This procedure
was considered justified on three grounds: First, one
of the missions of the project was to carry out seeding
trials in the migratory storm cloud systems associated
with cyclones and fronts without particular regard for
the cloud structure; second, even though subcooled
water was deficient along the leading edge of the
cloud system, there was always the hope that it
would materialize later on; and third, with a single
aircraft it was not possible to explore all parts of the
cloud systems, and one could often not say with
certainty that subcooled water might not be present
in unexplored sectors or at different altitudes. Also,
fuel capacity limited reconnaissance time to 1 or 2 hr
if a full 4-hr operation was to be accomplished, so that
quick decisions were often required. Furthermore, if
seeding was to prove most effective in initiating rather
than increasing the intensity of precipitation, it was
important to include, at least in some of the operations,
portions of the storm systems in advance of natural
precipitation.
In consequence of the foregoing, many of the
operations were carried out in systems which in
retrospect would probably be considered unsatisfac-
tory test specimens for cloud seeding experiments, in
the sense that the clouds were predominantly ice
crystals and the amounts of subcooled water, if pres-
ent at all, were slight. A survey of seeding and control
flight time shows that subcooled water was known to
be present during only 52 per cent of the time, al-
though some subcooled cloud was estimated to have
been present beneath the plane during about 90 per
cent of the seeding and control runs.
This circumstance, that is, the fact that in many
of the operations the cloud formations seemed some-
what less than ideal for cloud seeding, offered no
hindrance in effectively carrying out the objectives
of the test program. At first glance it might appear
that the program had been impaired by carrying out
seeding operations in cases where it could not be
determined that deep subcooled layers, ripe for seed-
ing, were present, and by failure to encounter more
favorable conditions. In this connection it is necessary
32 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS VoL. 2, No. 11

to emphasize the objectives of the project, viz., to ditions which were typical and representative of the
examine the cloud seeding potential of cloud systems winter storms entering the Pacific Northwest during
over northwestern Oregon and southwestern Wash- the existence of the project. It should be noted,
ington, and to seed cloud systems such as they were however, that two rather intense storms were missed
(even, one might say, indiscriminately) in order to because both aircraft were grounded for repairs. On
see what cloud seeding potential by dry ice seeding one other occasion intense icing prevented the
could be realized on the ground in the form of rainfall. initiation of an operation, and on another occasion
If seeding potential was often less than might be icing delayed the beginning of an operation. In two
desired, this fact was one to be investigated and cases (both seeding cases), intense icing forced the
reported. In this case, the two objectives of the project interruption of seeding while the plane descended to
would be satisfied by observing and reporting any de-ice. On 5 April1954, engine trouble forced abandon-
lack of potential, and by the occurrence of negligible ment of the seeding operation after only one pass
rainfall from seeding operations. Abundance or lack along the seeding line. However, the entire load of
of seeding potential was the major question the project dry ice was jettisoned along the first half of the return
set out to investigate. to the Seattle base, and it was decided to leave this
General lack of seedable clouds would, of course, be case in the set of seeding operations, since suitable
a more serious matter for a different type of program clouds were present where the dry ice was dropped.
which had as its object tests of different methods or During the operating seasons, daily precipitation at
rates of seeding. For such a program as that, one Hoquiam averaged 0.60 in. on operating days, as
would presumably wish to have frequent thick sub- against 0.41 in. on all non-operating rainy days.
cooled layers for experimentation. The ACN project
was not oriented in this direction, and so long as 8. Cloud conditions observed during flights
advantage was taken of the most favorable conditions,
it could have completed its purpose successfully if no A wide variety of cloud conditions was encountered
subcooled water whatsoever had been encountered in the storms surveyed. This was true not only
during operations. between different storms but also within relatively
The project employed as much judgment and small sectors of the same system. However, it is
discrimination in selecting cases as was possible under important for seeding that the subcooled water content
the circumstances, and a concerted effort was made of the cloud systems (and consequently the cloud
to operate in the storm systems when the seeding seeding potential) ranged over wide limits from one
potential, whatever its extent, was at its highest. storm to another and within parts of the same storm
This effort was believed to have been successful on system. These observations served to corroborate
almost all cases. similar findings of other workers including the N ACA
icing research teams and the MIT radar weather
group. In some cloud systems there was, so far as
7. Project operations could be ascertained, no liquid water whatsoever.
Project operations began in March 1953 and con- Above the melting level the clouds consisted entirely
tinued through April and May. Flights were suspended of ice crystals and small snowflakes. There were
during the summer in accordance with requests from probably traces of liquid water at the top of the cloud
agricultural interests, and were resumed in September, decks, for example at the cirrus level, but observations
continuing until 15 May 1954. A total of 141 flights could not be made above about 19,000 ft. A variation
of all types were made during the period of operation. of this type of cloud system was one in which light
Sixty of these were operational weather flights made amounts of subcooled water were present along with
in anticipation of seedable conditions. However, the snowflakes for several hundred feet above the melting
conditions were declared seedable on only 35 of these level, decreasing in amount with altitude. These
cases, and the randomization resulted in 22 seeding systems were not the rule but occurred often enough
and 13 control cases. Some of the remaining weather to be an important consideration in assessing seeding
flights were limited to reconnaissance of the cloud potential.
systems; in other cases experimental seeding was At the opposite extreme, deep subcooled layers
carried out on clouds which did not meet the require- containing few if any ice crystals were occasionally
ments of the project in terms of extensiveness of found up to depths of 8000 ft. Such clouds are, of
cloud cover. Seeding and control time during the 35 course, ideal subjects for cloud seeding tests. They
operational periods amounted to 110 hr. So far as were observed, however, on only a few occasions
could be judged, the flights were carried out in con- during the operating period, and their horizontal
jULY 1957 FERGUSON HALL 33

extent at right angles to the front or storm system 1-

z
and their duration over a given area, appeared to be -....==
lj 100 . - - . - - . - - . - - I. - - . --+-:;:--.....01
limited to SO to 100 mi and to 1 or 2 hr, respectively. ffi ~i-...,o--o
a. 90 r- + o""
More frequently, the cloud systems were made up of
mixed ice crystal and water clouds with rather light g
;;
80 1'/0,~
liquid water contents, variable both in space and time
0
within a given area. In such cases, it seemed question- ... 70 0
+ACN DATA--
able whether the addition of more ice crystals by ~ ~I
seeding could be expected to accomplish much, since ~ 60 t' 0 NACA DATA - -
the absorption of liquid droplets by the natural crys- : +/

tals appeared to be in balance with the production of
new droplets. Removal of this "background" liquid
water supply, if accomplished effectively by seeding,
could conceivably increase precipitation locally to a
very limited extent, but would presumably produce a
corresponding reduction of 0.5 to 1 hr downwind,
since the growth potential for natural ice crystals
would have been removed.
Of natural interest is the extent to which such
cloud conditions can be considered representative of
those in other regions. The frequent rainfall over the
experimental area had suggested the possibility that
the natural rainfall processes might be more efficient
than elsewhere, thus limiting the usefulness of seeding
in the area, and consequently bearing on the appro-
priateness of the location for conducting seeding tests.
However, the icing rates experienced during project
flights suggested that the area was not unfavorable,
and this impression has been confirmed by a com-
parison of the icing conditions encountered by project
aircraft with those experienced in routine trans-
continental airline operation. The comparison was
made with data collected by the National Advisory
Committee for Aeronautics on DC-4 aircraft operating
between New York and San Francisco during winter
months [3]. The results are presented in fig. 5 which
indicates the close correspondence between conditions
encountered in the two cases.
Usually one could define an upper and lower cloud
deck, the lower containing the primary water supply
and the upper furnishing ice crystals which fell into
the lower deck and rapidly increased in size. These
two decks correspond to what Bergeron has termed
the "releaser" and the "spender" clouds. On some
occasions, however, the upper deck would be absent,
with the ice crystals being generated in the upper
portions of the lower deck. At other times, the lower
deck would be missing and precipitation was limited
to snow showers aloft which usually evaporated before
reaching the ground. Altocumulus structures were
frequently encountered and sometimes contained sub-
stantial amounts of subcooled water in their cores
while snowing at the outer edges. In other cases,
where the clouds lacked substantial organized up-
k ;/
~50 A'
-
~ "' 0
8 20 I
a: I
... cl
i 10 -
0
~ o~-~~-~~-~~-~~-~-~-~-~~~~
:::i 0 .I .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1.0
LIQUID WATER CONTENT, GRAMS PER CUBIC METER
FIG. 5. Cumulative frequency distribution of concentrations of
subcooled liquid water encountered by the ACN Project and by
a transcontinental transport operation.
drafts, the cores would consist of wet crystals or snow-
flakes with only subcooled cloud at the edges. Wet
cumulus developments were often found embedded in
ice-crystal altostratus, the moderate updrafts ap-
parently being sufficient to inhibit nucleation from
the surrounding crystals, at least during the formative
stages. Ice crystal haze was frequently experienced,
in some cases representing very diffuse altostratus
layers, in others probably comprising the remnants of
altostratus, and in still others consisting of weak
precipitation from existing or pre-existing decks. Fig-
ure 6 illustrates three typical conditions encountered.
Pending a more complete analysis of the inflight ob-
servations, the impression was obtained that the
presence and quantity of subcooled water were favored
by proximity to fronts, by the absence of an active
altostratus layer, and by transient processes such as
frontogenesis. Existence of substantial amounts in
mixed clouds appeared to require cumulus develop-
ments or intensification of the gradual widespread
lifting process.
Subcooled cloud temperatures during seeding and
control portions of the flights are shown in table 2,
which gives cumulative percentages of the time that
subcooled clouds at or below flight level were warmer
than the specified value, and similar percentages for
the observed and estimated subcooled cloud tops (on
some occasions above achievable flight altitudes). It
will be observed that 70 per cent of the clouds at or
below operating levels lay between OC and -10C, a
34 METEOROLOG ICAL MONOGRAPHS VoL. 2, No. 11

Legend
Ice crystals * Snow flakes
30,000 o Liquid cloud droplets/;,-;~' f,?ain

20,000

* * * * -20°C.

10,000 * * *
* * *

Qao~
*
* 0 * * *
0

Height
(ft.)

20,000
0
0 0
0 0 0
0

0
0
15,000 0

* *
* * * * *
* ><
*
*

Height
(ft.)

20,000 ..:..:::-=::::::::::::======--=-:::::::::=-

15,00

0 0 0
0
0 0
0
10,000 0

0
*
0 0 0

* 0 0
0
* 0

* *
0

5,000 * 0

c
FIG. 6. Vertical cross-sections showing typical cloud conditions encountered during flight program. A) Deep nimbostratus layer
consisting primarily of ice crystals and fine snow above melting level, but including light amounts of subcooled water in shallow
jULY 1957 FERGUSON HALL 35

FIG. 7. Line of cumulus developing along seeded path. Flight of 2 April 1954, altitude 12,000 ft.

TABLE 2. Temperature of subcooled clouds existing at or below In a number of cases, however, when daylight
seeding and control flight levels and at estimated subcooled
cloud tops. flights were conducted in the clear above a rather
smooth lower deck, the usual seeding effects could be
Cumulative percentage (clouds as warm or
warmer than indicated)
observed. The effects were characterized by a change
Temperature
(°C)
At or below Observed and estimated from water droplets to ice crystals and the creation
flight level cloud tops
of troughs often preceded by slight rises in the cloud
2 12 4 top. The effects were noted with all of the seeding
- 4 18 7
- 6 36 16 rates employ ed, and seeded segments produced by
- 8 50 29 the intermittent seeding were observed to grow and
-10 69 51
-12 78 61 merge into solid seeded lines. On one occasion, a small
-14 93 76 ice crystal cloud was produced several hundred feet
-16 96 87
- 18 100 93 above the lower deck. In another case, a small cumulus
-20 97 cloud was observed to develop in one of the seeded
-22 97
-24 97 troughs, while in yet another a cumulus-type ridge
-26 100 built up approximately 1000 ft in the general location
of an earlier seeded path, as shown in fig. 7. So far as
region in which silver iodide nucleation is thought to could be observed, the seeding effects appeared to be
be only partially effective, thus making it seem fortu- localized, and did not show a tendency to spread.
nate in retrospect that dry ice was chosen as the Figures 8 and 9 show the effects of seeding a thin
seeding agent. About SO per cent of all subcooled cloud stratocumulus deck. Troughs produced at the top of
was estimated to occur in this temperature range. a rather irregular deck are shown in fig. 10.

9. Visual seeding effects 10. Statistical evaluation

Visual observation of seeding effects on the cloud i. General considerations. Evaluation of the results of
tops was rather restricted due to the limitation of a the seeding trials was based first of all on the detection
single aircraft per operation and because the rigid of any rainfall anomalies that occurred in the target
seeding procedure prevented following the seeded areas at appropriate times following the beginning of
clouds downwind for the required length of time. Also an experimental operation. These anomalies were
many of the flights were made entirely on instruments determined both for the seeding periods and for the
and others were made at night where visual observa- control periods. The effects of t he seeding were then
tion was restricted to cloud composition and changes estimated by studying the difference, if any , between
in texture and density, and to the grosser aspects of the anomalies of the seeding periods and those of the
cloud structure. control periods.
mixed layer just above melting level, increased depth just ahead of surface warm front. B) Different form of nimbostratus- cirrus
or a ltostratus absent. I ce crystals generated in upper portions of deck producing precipitation. Light amounts of subcooled water
present at top. Cumulus cells embedded in stratiform cloud mass. C) Deep subcooled layer ahead of developing warm front. Nat-
urally forming ice crystals producing light precipitation, liquid water content not yet exhausted. Cirrus or a ltostratus layer not de-
veloped sufficiently to thoroughly seed lower deck. Situation infrequent, possibly transient in cha racter.
36 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS VoL. 2, No. 11

FIG. 8. Patch of ice crystals produced in thin stratocumulus deck 14 min after dropping 50 lb dry ice, 18 January 1954.
Cloud tops 6000 ft, aircraft 8000 ft.

Two types of data were available for analysis-
rain gage data and radar data. As mentioned earlier,
an extensive rain gage network of approximately 100
stations was made available by augmenting the exist-
ing cooperative network. The gages were of the
weighing-recording type, and rainfall amounts were
read off the cha rts and tabulated in hourly increments
in the standard manner. Special attention was given
to the proper operation of t he gages, and a continuous
round of inspections was maintained throughout the
program. The radar data afford another method of
observing precipitation; however, results of this phase
of the analysis are not included in this report.
As stated, the first step in the evaluation was to

FIG. 9. Hole produced in thin stratocumulus deck 39 min after drop of dry ice at rate of 3 lb per mi, 18 January 1954.
Cloud tops 6000 ft, aircraft 8000 ft.
jULY 1957 FERGUSON HALL
FIG. 10. Troughs produced in top of cloud deck 2 April 1954, altitude 12,000 ft.
determine whether any rainfall anomalies occurred
in the target area following initiation of a seeding or
control operation. The presence of anomalies was
determined by first estimating what the rainfall over
the target area would have been without the seeding
(or the simulated seeding in control cases), and then
subtracting the predicted rainfall from that which
actually occurred. This problem of estimating the
natural rainfall over the target was the critical one
in this as well as in other cloud seeding projects, and
the skill with which this is done determines the sensi-
tivity of the evaluation procedure and the effective-
ness of the program in detecting and assaying seeding
effects.
Methods used for predicting na tural t arget rainfall
in the present program all took the form of utilizing
data from outside the target area or from outside the
target period, or both, to arrive at an estimate of the
target rainfa ll during the target period. Six such
methods, not entirely independent, were employed,
resulting in six different numerical results. The esti-
mates were made for the target-period rainfall for
each rain gage in the t a rget area. These estimates
were then subtracted from the observed rainfall at
each target gage for the same period, resulting in a
difference or anomaly for each gage. These anomalies
were then averaged over the target a rea for each
seeding and control operation, thus giving a single
number for each operation representing the average
target anomaly. This procedure was repeated for each
37
operational case which provided a set of anomalies
for the seeding cases and another set for the control
cases. The effect of seeding was then determined by
use of the "t" test [2]. The difference between the
average anomaly in the set of seeding cases was com-
pared with that in the set of control cases, to see
whether t here was any significant reason for abandon-
ing the null hypothesis.
ii. Targets, control areas and periods. Before any actual
computation could begin, it was necessary to select
and define the t arget a reas to be used in each case. In
cloud seeding projects there are two ways of accom-
plishing this task. One system is to select a target
area in advance of an operation and attempt to pro-
duce the seeding effect over it; the other is to perform
the seeding operation over a fixed geographic course
prescribed in advance and a ttempt to define the target
later, using wind and other d ata that may become
available. The second procedure was employed in this
research.
A number of tests of the possibility of defining
target areas with the aid of fluorescent tracer powdef
were made. The powder was released in quantities or
about 10 lb per flight in ice crystal cloud, and samples
of rainwater were taken at 10 stations located down-
wind from the point of release. This work was carried
out with the assistance of the Armour Research
Foundation which was conducting other fluorescent
powder studies in the area. Results were almost
entirely negative, and the technique as employed
38 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS
did not appear to be applicable to ACN project
requirements.
Three different sets of target areas and target
times were used in the final analysis. In each case the
target areas and times were selected by an objective
set of rules devised for the purpose, and the determina-
tion of both the rules and the individual targets under
the rules was made before the rainfall records were
consulted by the persons involved, so that any
subjective decisions that might have been employed
could not have been biased. The rules for target
areas took into account such factors as the geograph-
ical location of the seeding line, the available
upper wind reports, the heights of the seeding and
melting levels, and the probable formation time and
settling rate of artificially created snowflakes. The
rules governing determination of target times took
into account factors such as starting and stopping
times and the fact that the rainfall records were
tabulated in hourly increments.
Type I target areas were truncated sectors, bounded
upwind by the seeding line and downwind by the edge
of the rain gage network, in a direction governed by
the mean wind direction between the melting and
seeding levels. To allow for possible spreading of
seeding effects, each side was allowed to diverge 10°
from lines parallel to the target area axis. The rules
governing selection were as follows:
a) All upper air data west of the Cascade Mountains
and from Portland to Tatoosh Island were used.
Observations used were those taken just before and
after the seeding or control period (also soundings
during the period, if any).
b) For melting level determination, all 850mb and
700mb temperatures were averaged, and the averages
plotted on a pseudo-adiabatic diagram. The melting
level was then obtained by interpolation.
c) Wind directions and speeds at each even thou-
sand-foot level, from the melting level to the dis-
pensing level, were obtained by averaging all values
available according to a). Finally a grand average of
these wind directions and speeds was taken to obtain
a single mean wind speed and direction. This mean
wind direction was used as the axis of the target area.
d) Next it was determined how far a particle would
move from the start of seeding (or control) until the
next subsequent half-past hour. This was based on
the mean wind speed obtained above. At this distance
a line was drawn parallel to the seeding line. At a
further distance, equal to that which a particle would
travel in 1 hr from the first line, another line was
.drawn and so on.
e) Rain gage stations in the first portion of the
target area counted their first target rainfall beginning
VoL. 2, No. 11
with the hour closest to the commencement of seeding
or control. Stations between the first line and second
line in the target area started counting 1 hr later,
and so on.
f) At the end of the period the stations in the
target area from the seeding line to the first line
counted their last target rainfall ending with the hour
closest to the termination of seeding or control.
Stations between the first and second line continued
1 hr later, and so on.
These fan-shaped targets embraced as few as five
rain gages in one case and as many as 53 in another.
The average was 29.
Type II areas, used in one of the 6 evaluations
were obtained by reducing the length of the original
target area to approximately 1 hr of wind travel and
centering the area at a distance from the seeding line
judged to provide the greatest sensitivity to the cloud
seeding. This was done by estimating the time neces-
sary for artificially created ice crystals to settle to the
melting level. A 10-min incubation period was allowed,
then 10 min settling time was allowed for each 1,000
ft between the seeding and melting levels. With the
mean wind speed already obtained, the distance
downwind from the seeding line was determined for
which a particle would travel in the 20 min interval.
At that point, a line was drawn parallel to the seeding
line. Parallel lines such as these, drawn at 0.5 hr
travel increments upwind and downwind from the
first line, defined the upwind and downwind bounda-
ries of the target.
The hours of rainfall at the various stations within
these targets that were counted as being within the
seeded period were defined in the same way as those
obtained in. connection with the type I targets.
Examples of type I and I I targets are shown in fig. 11.
After a full target had been selected, the remainder
of the rain gage network constituted a control area.
data from which were used in 4 of the 6 evaluations,
Type I I I targets differed considerably from the
first two. Visual observation of the effects of dry ice
seeding in Australia had led research members of the
Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research
Organization to the impression that the induced pre-
cipitation began to fall within a rather short time
after seeding. They had formulated a rule that the
precipitation would appear at the base of the seeded
cloud in an interval consisting of a 10-min incubation
period and 1 min additional for each 1000 ft of cloud
thickness. They had also observed that the effect
usually did not last for more than 1 hr following the
seeding treatment. These observations suggested the
desirability of selecting a new set of targets in ac-
cordance with these findings. Consequently, with the
jULY 1957 FERGUSON HALL 39

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Seeding Time: • 81 IIOOILIII

1214 to 1614
1200 1300 ........·• 1400" ... "...
to o83 CUIU•
1500
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1800 .. """' 1900
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PRECIPITATION GAGE NETWORK

ACN PROJECT U. S. WEATHER BUREAU
IC.lLI or JIZLII ,

DATE TIME ---------

DATA---------

FrG. 11. Examples of type I and II targets used in evaluation.

40 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS
I 0 min. at height H
plus Trajectory
to Surface
'ttflnner Boundary
...
<>
~ h) To establish the line of first effects, a vector
c"'
'ii
~ ___j_____i~o~P~~~in~d~V~e~c~to~r------------~
0 a 10-min travel vector at height Hand 1-min vectors
FIG. 12. Method of selecting type III targets.
advice of Mr. E. J. Smith of CSIRO, a new set of
rules was drawn up for selecting the third set of
targets. These rules follow:
a) Three standard level charts were prepared (850,
700 and 500 mb) at 6-hr intervals for the 12 hr
surrounding flight time using upper air data for
Washington and Oregon. Assistance in preparing
charts for times between the regular 12-hr observa-
tions was obtained by referring to the 12-hr charts
adjacent to the desired period. These charts contained
contours, winds, and isopachs* for the layer below.
b) Estimates of the wind shear between the
standard levels over the target were obtained by
reference to the isopach and contour patterns over
the target, and were adjusted in the direction of any
ageostrophic components indicated by the observed
winds at the surrounding upper air stations.
c) The wind shears obtained from b) were added
successively to the estimated surface wind over the
seeding line, thus giving estimated winds at the
standard levels. These estimates were then compared
with the contour patterns to determine final values.
d) Wind values at 1000 ft intervals were obtained
by fitting the variations of nearby wind soundings to
the values of winds already found at the standard
levels.
e) Since the upper winds frequently varied con-
siderably during a flight period, wind estimates were
usually made for the beginning and end of the flight
period, as well as for intermediate times in some cases.
This was done by adding to the current surface wind
the shear values interpolated between map times.
f) The height of the melting level was obtained
from in-flight observations and surrounding radiosonde
* Isopleths of thickness.
VoL. 2, No. 11
observations, taking into account frontal structures
as shown on Weather Bureau charts.
g) The seeding was considered to have produced
ice crystal curtains extending from the melting level
up to the cloud top or the seeding level. The first
seeding effects were assumed to fall from a median
height H defined as being one third of the distance
down from the top of the curtain, and they were as-
sumed to arrive at the ground in 10 min, plus 1 min
for each 1000 ft to the ground. The effects were as-
sumed to continue for 1 hr, during which the curtain
would be carried by the wind and be deformed by the
shear between its top and bottom .
representing the downwind travel of the effects during
the settling time to the ground was obtained by adding
at each 1000 ft down to the ground. This vector was
extended from one end of the seeding track, and a line
parallel to the seeding track was drawn through the
end of the vector. This formed the inner boundary of
the target area.
i) Vectors representing 1-hr flow at the top of the ice
crystal curtain were erected at each end of the seeding
track. The area between these vectors was swept out
by the top of the ice crystal curtain in 1 hr.
j) A vector representing 1 hr of the mean wind
between the top and the melting level was laid out
from the end of the seeding track such that the
vector lay exterior to the area included by the top
wind vectors.
k) The melting level wind vector for 1 hr was also
erected from one end of the seeding track, using the
same procedure as inj).
I) The outer boundary of the target area was drawn
by connecting ends of all vectors, the sides of the
area being the portions of the outermost vectors be-
tween the inner and outer boundaries. Fig. 12 il-
lustrates construction of the targets.
m) If the melting level or the winds showed much
variation during the operating period, or if the top of
the ice crystal sheet changed substantially during the
flight because of rising or falling of cloud tops or
change in altitude of aircraft, the above steps were
repeated accounting for the changed conditions. In
such cases, the final target area was a combination of
the individually determined targets.
n) The time when effects would first reach the
ground was determined by noting the beginning of
seeding and adding 10 min plus 1 min for each 1000 ft
interval below H. This time was rounded to the
nearest whole hour which was considered the first
hour of rainfall to be counted. The length of the flight
period was added to the tlme of first effects expected
jULY 1957 FERGUSON
on the ground. This time was rounded to the nearest
whole hour which was the last hour of rainfall counted.
iii. Design in evaluations. Before discussing the in-
dividual evaluations, it may be desirable to indicate
the extent to which scientific design was introduced
into the evaluation, and the limitations that should
be applied in the interpretation of the results. The
design of the observational and experimental phases
of the program, including randomization, has been
mentioned earlier. Ideally, in a well designed testing
program the method of evaluation of the data should
be completely specified in advance and published
prior to the taking of any data. This procedure was
followed in part during the investigation. Tentative
plans distributed in the Fall of 1952 [4] outlined and
proposed in rather broad terms the use of the monthly
normal to aid in smoothing out orographic influences.
This was the Brier-Stidd method. It also proposed the
extrapolation of residual prediction errors across the
target area, and outlined the method by which project
monthly normals would be obtained.
Further detail in explaining the proposed evaluation
techniques was made in May, 1953. The desirability
of using the preceding rainfall as an additional pre-
dictor along with the monthly normal was mentioned.
More complete specifications for determination and
adjustment of monthly normals were presented. The
exact details of the evaluation were not specified,
since exploratory work on March 1953 data was still
in progress. No specifications were given for the
determination of target areas, except to mention that
upper winds and precipitation settling rates would
probably have to be used. Possible use of the trajectory
of radar echoes was suggested for this purpose.
Exact specifications were completed in the Fall of
1953, prior to the examination of rainfall data. These
methods were employed in evaluations 1 and 2 to be
described. The procedures to determine target areas
and times, as mentioned earlier, were determined
without examination of the rainfall data. They were
also fixed in the fall of 1953, and bear a close similarity
to the previously proposed methods, except that radar
data could not be incorporated because of a film
development delay. The methods used in evaluations
4 and 5 were variations and formalizations of methods
which had been previously determined. Method 3 was
developed at a later date, and the target areas used
in method 6 were selected later still.
In summary, it is believed that sufficient pre-
cautions were taken to ensure the absence of bias in
the data, even though a complete specification of the
analysis methods was not published prior to the
recording of data. A more puzzling question arose,
however, as analyses continued. Assuming some in-
HALL 41
dependence, additional analyses could give different
answers, and sooner or later one could have been
found which, taken by itself, would give a "statistically
significant" result. How much weight should have
been attached to the analysis as originally contem-
plated, and how much to analyses made after the
results of earlier ones became available, was a moot
question.
iv. Computation of precipitation normals. Since it ap-
peared that monthly normal precipitation at individual
rain gage stations would be of use as a predictor in
the analysis program, an early effort was begun to
establish a set of normals that would be of uniform
quality and that would afford maximum sensitivity
for the program purpose. The published normals for
stations in th~ experimental area had been based on
highly variable lengths of record. An examination of
the precipitation records from one reliable long-period
station showed that a marked downward trend in
precipitation had occurred during the period 1900-
1920, but that during the past 30 yr the trend had
stopped and values had stabilized. This suggested
that only the latter period should be used in the
program. Accordingly, the 32-yr period 1920-1951
was adopted as the basis for the project normals.
The problem arose of making use of data from a
large number of stations which had records shorter
than the base period, or which had been moved or
changed within the period in such a way that the
homogeneity of the data was affected. A procedure
was devised to permit the computation of 32-yr
normals for all stations having a record for at least
the last 7 yr of the base period. This procedure has
been published elsewhere [1], but will be briefly
described here.
Thirty stations were chosen, the majority in
western Washington, some in northwest Oregon, that
had a long record in the same location. If a station
had been moved 100 ft or more in elevation or more
than 1 mi in any direction it was rejected from this
group. Precipitation data for these stations were
tabulated by months for each of the stations for the
period 1920-1951, and 32-yr monthly means for the
period were obtained for each station for each month,
as well as 10-yr monthly means for the period 1942-
1951. The relationships between the 10-yr monthly
means and the 32-yr monthly means, using data from
the 30 base stations, were established by regressions.
Correlation coefficients averaged 0.99.
The next step was to use the regression data for
obtaining estimates of the 32-yr normals for the
shorter period stations. Monthly rainfall data for all
available stations in Washington and Oregon west of
the ridge of the Cascades and north of latitude 45N
42 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS
were extracted from the publication Climatological
Data for the period 1942-1951. Monthly means for
these stations for this period were obtained for all
stations with 7 yr of record or more during this
period. With the regressions previously obtained,
estimated 32-yr means were computed for each sta-
tion by month. Computations were checked by plot-
ting the computed means against time and noting
abnormalities. Standard errors of estimate for the
different months varied between 0.25 and 0.5 in.
A further problem arose in the use of the normals
computed. Many of these were based on rainfall
measured with standard 8-in. U. S. Weather Bureau
rain gages where the depth of the collected water is
determined by dipping with a calibrated wooden
stick. For project purposes, however, only recording
gages were used, these including pre-existing gages at
some of the "stick" stations as well as those installed
alongside existing stick gages. Studies using January
and February 1953 data indicated that there was a
significant difference between amounts measured by
stick and amounts indicated by the recording gages.
The matter was resolved by converting the stick
normals into recorder normals by regression relation-
ships during each month of operation.
A final problem involved establishing 32-yr normals
for the project gages installed in completely new
locations or at stations where the existing record was
too short to be used in the procedure previously
described. Two methods were employed, the first to
select the normals from analyzed monthly normal
charts prepared with the data obtained as described
above. The second was to select a group of existing
stations in the area surrounding a new station and
establish a regression between the 32-yr normals and
the rainfall for the month of interest. The 32-yr
normal could then be obtained for the new station
by applying the regression relationship to its actual
rainfall for the month. Residual error in such pro-
cedures was small and was not considered serious,
since it would apply to both seeding and control cases
and hence would not bias the results.
v. The separate evaluations
(1) Multiple regression-type I target. The initial
evaluation of the rain gage data was based on a
multiple regression established within the control area
for each seeding or control occasion and then applied
to the target area. The full type I targets, described
previously, were used. Studies of rainfall data in the
experimental area for January, February and March
of 1953 had indicated that 4- and 6-hr rainfall patterns
were significantly correlated with the monthly normal
VoL. 2, No. 11
pattern and also with the patterns during the previous
4- and 6-hr periods. It was also observed that a
multiple correlation involving both parameters was
significantly better than either parameter used singly.
The regressions used in this first evaluation were
formed for each seeding and control period between
the rainfall at the individual control stations and the
monthly normal and previous 4-hr rainfall for each
of such stations. The hours of rainfall at the control
stations used in the regressions covered the entire
period that any part of the target was affected, thus
the "control" period was normally 2 or 3 hr longer
than the target period at any one target station. The
relationship obtained in each case was assumed to
hold for the target area, and estimates of the rainfall
during each seeding or control period at each of the
target area stations were obtained by entering the
regression equation with the monthly normal and
previous 4-hr rainfall. These individual estimates
were averaged over the target area. The observed
average target rainfall for the same period was ob-
tained and the estimated value was subtracted to
yield the difference between observed and estimated
rainfall.
(2) Multiple regression with truncated target. This
method made use of the same control areas and
multiple regression formulae as used in the first
method. The target areas, however, were the smaller
type II areas previously described. Probably because
of the smaller number of target stations involved, the
precision of the estimation of average target rainfall
was less than in the previous case.
(3) Space-time interpolation. Type I targets and
associated periods were used in this procedure. The
method consisted of arraying the hourly rainfall data
in time sequence and also partially in space sequence,
to permit visual interpolation of rainfall patterns
over the target areas and periods. One set of diagrams,
called X-T diagrams, was constructed by dividing
the entire rain gage network into five horizontal bands,
oriented east-west. The east-west position of each
rainfall station in a given band was located on the
abscissa of one of the diagrams. The ordinate of each
diagram was divided into 11 hr. Five X-T diagrams
were required, one for each east-west band. Rainfall
values for the 11 hr surrounding the target period
were plotted above each station, and isohyets were
constructed over the arrays and interpolated across
the target regions, making possible an estimate of the
hourly rainfall amount for each target station.
Another set of diagrams, called Y-T diagrams, was
constructed by dividing the network map into five
vertical (north-south) bands. The resulting graphs
jULY 1957 FERGUSON HALL 43

showed the station positions along the ordinate and
the time positions along the abscissa. These Y-T
diagrams were analyzed in the same manner as the
X-T diagrams, the resulting configurations and
estimates being compared with those of the X-T
diagrams and adjustments made in each so that the
two corresponded. In order to determine whether this
scheme would be useful, all the control cases were
analyzed before the seeding cases. Thus the analyst
was always aware of which type he was working on,
hence it was possible for bias, if any existed, to
influence the results of the analyses.
TABLE
(4) Simple time interpolation. The X- Y-T procedure
indicated that a simple interpolation across the series
of hourly rainfall amounts for each target station
would yield a good estimate of the target amounts.
Since this was an objective method, it was tried and
proved to be the most sensitive of any of the objective
tests. In this evaluation the large type I targets were
used and the average hourly rainfall for a target
station during the target period was estimated by
averaging the rainfall for the hour just preceding the
period with that for the hour just following the period.
None of the control area data were used.
3. Details of statistical evaluations.

Average target rainfall anomalies

Number of target Average target rainfall Observed minus estimated
stations ( xJ0-2 in. per 4 hr) ( xJ0-2 in. per 4 hr)
Duration Type Type Type Type Type Type Methods
(hr) I II III I* II** I II*** 2 3 4 5 6

Seeding
1953 Mar. 24 2 34 7 4 12.18 2.00 0.0 -1.68 -12.84 4.78 1.78 4.0 0.0
Apr. 13 3 44 16 9 4.03 1.63 2.52 -0.26 -2.08 1.48 0.81 0.7 -0.36
Apr. 16 2 18 5 4 11.66 15.60 16.67 6.98 9.96 4.11 1.78 -8.8 8.67
Oct. 9 3 21 11 10 23.75 28.85 24.93 8.79 12.43 6.59 5.37 3.7 5.53
Nov. 4 2 18 7 7 12.56 14.58 10.48 -1.76 -4.28 2.12 3.00 0.4 -6.66
Nov.11 3 26 14 11 14.00 10.19 6.91 5.83 2.03 -3.84 1.38 1.5 -13.63
Nov. 13 3 14 9 6 24.39 18.67 16.33 15.97 10.85 4.63 -2.47 11.1 -6.67
Nov.18 4 53 6 19 0.72 2.33 3.83 -1.27 -1.95 0.12 -0.22 -0.1 0.35
Dec. 1 3 44 10 9 7.07 10.67 11.41 0.60 -5.76 1.07 1.17 **** -1.25
Dec. 4 4 36 9 9 10.36 10.11 18.31 -3.18 -2.56 -3.86 -1.76 -3.1 -4.13
Dec. 11 3 37 19 24 16.32 24.07 11.67 1.64 8.53 8.84 -0.16 2.0 -3.75
Dec. 23 2 33 6 11 7.88 6.66 6.91 1.54 0.38 -1.20 -1.58 -2.0 -2.73
Dec. 31 3 27 8 8 3.65 . 1.33 6.88 0.08 0.56 -0.51 -1.55 -1.0 -3.88
1954Feb. 11 3 29 11 12 24.09 28.97 30.83 2.87 7.27 -1.69 2.81 1.3 2.33
Feb. 12 3 34 21 12 4.08 4.25 8.00 -5.36 -4.00 -0.96 -19.86 -2.7 -24.16
Feb. 15 4 24 11 7 22.04 21.91 42.95 7.72 10.23 2.04 1.70 -1.7 12.37
Feb. 18 3 34 12 11 18.47 7.89 36.55 -12.53 -13.96 0.59 0.05 2.9 -7.81
Feb. 20 4 31 10 11 33.32 35.70 45.55 5.65 15.18 7.36 6.54 2.9 0.27
Apr. 2 4 25 5 8 6. 76 7.60 5.10 0.65 -0.51 -0.44 2.92 2.7 0.60
Apr. 4 4 31 8 9 10.97 9.13 9.42 -0.76 -1.32 -3.75 -5.23 -3.5 -1.92
Apr. 5 1 13 3 5 9.52 4.00 8.80 2.84 -3.04 4.92 3.82 9.2 -3.20
Apr. 12 3 31 11 13 20.95 14.67 14.71 3.23 6.59 7.39 7.85 3.6 3.79
N = 22 Average 13.58 12.76 1.71 1.44 1.81 0.37 1.10 -2.10
Standard deviation 5.68 7.83 3.81 5.43 4.22 7.29
Standard deviation of mean 1.21 1.67 0.81 1.16 0.92 1.55

Control
1953 Apr. 8 4 10 1 3 0.80 0.0 0.0 -0.30 -0.37 0.80 0.0 0.3 0.0
Apr. 26 4 24 2 5 0.46 0.0 0.48 -3.39 -4.02 0.13 -1.04 -0.3 -1.92
Sept. 26 3 34 10 11 0.59 0.53 0.45 -0.28 -O.Dl 0.25 0.17 0.0 -0.09
Oct. 17 3 46 10 12 13.13 9.20 13.80 -3.41 -5.44 -3.13 1.17 -6.4 6.30
Nov. 5 4 15 5 4 5.87 2.20 1.80 3.96 0.46 3.87 3.20 -1.6 1.30
Nov. 25 3 48 10 13 17.23 11.33 8.23 2.12 -0.45 1.23 0.11 2.4 -1.77
Dec. 9 1 38 10 12 38.12 28.80 29.17 -13.92 -25.00 3.16 -3.10 -16.8 -20.67
1954 Jan. 20 4 5 1 5 17.20 0.0 3.80 13.29 -3.06 6.00 2.80 6.4 -2.20
Feb. 13 2 33 14 8 11.82 10.58 9.83 7.46 6.80 4.90 3.82 1.4 9.33
Feb. 16 4 18 10 6 13.83 20.50 1.33 9.09 14.36 -1.96 1.27 -9.2 -1.67
Mar.15 4 16 8 6 1.06 1.00 1.60 -3.23 -3.84 -0.94 -10.06 -0.7 -8.74
Mar. 26 4 38 6 11 21.26 24.50 20.22 8.19 11.75 3.58 1.58 1.1 1.12
Apr. 7-8 4 20 7 9 14.35 15.29 5.24 8.13 9.13 6.35 3.75 -2.3 -8.98
N = 13 Average 11.98 9.53 2.14 0.02 1.86 0.29 -1.98 -2.15
Standard deviation 6.99 9.48 2.90 3.54 5.65 7.17
Standard deviation of mean 1.94 2.63 0.80 0.98 1.57 1.99

*Applies to method 2 only.

**Applies to methods 1, 3 and 4. Values for method 5 differed slightly.
***Applies to method 6 only.
**** Omitted due to complex target configuration.
44 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS VoL. 2, No. 11

TABLE 4. Statistical summary.

Difference in anomalies 95 per cent confidence limits

Average Average rainfall anomaly Seeding minus control Increase or decrease
target Observed minus estimated
rainfall ( xJ0-2 in. per 4 hr) (Percent (Percent
( xJO-•in. (X to-• in. increase or I-test Probability ( X10-2 in. increase or
Method per 4 hr) Seeding Control per 4 hr) decrease) ratio (2-tail) per4 hr) decrease)

1 12.98 1.71 2.14 -0.43 -3.3 -0.195 > 0.8 4.1 to -4.9 31 to -38
2 11.56 1.44 0.02 1.42 12.28 0.470 > 0.6 7.6 to -4.7 65 to -41
3 12.98 1.81 1.86 -0.05 -0.39 -0.040 > 0.9 2.5 to -2.6 19 to -20
4 12.98 0.37 0.29 0.08 0.62 0.047 > 0.9 3.6 to -3.4 27 to -26
5 12.90 1.10 -1.98 3.08 23.88 1.759 0.08 6.6 to -0.5 52 to- 4
6 12.54 -2.10 -2.15 0.05 0.40 0.019 > 0.9 5.3 to -5.2 42 to -41

(5) Interpolation of residuals. This method was ap- the procedure of evaluation 4 above. This method
plied to the large type I targets. It was used also to was used because of its simplicity and because it had
estimate the target rainfall during the seeded period proved to be the most sensitive of the objective
by making use of the target area rainfall 2 hr before methods previously used.
and 2 hr after the seeded period. However, instead of vi. Results of evaluations.· Details of the six evalua-
merely equating seeded rainfall to the average before tions are presented in table 3 and the results are
and after seeding as was done in evaluation 4, a summarized in table 4. In the last two columns of
fractional quantity of the averages before and after table 4, confidence limits are presented within which
were used, the fraction being obtained from the rain- the true values of an increase or decrease due to
fall in the control area during the same periods. Also, seeding might be expected to fall. Column 5 of this
instead of working with the target and control areas table shows that, with evaluation methods 1, 3, 4, and
in their entirety, the target was divided into segments 6, there was a negligible difference between rainfall
which represented the portions of the area that were anomalies on the seeding and control days. The con-
successively affected (in 1-hr steps) as the effects fidence limits in these cases are consequently centered
moved downwind. The control area was similarly near zero, with the spread varying in accordance with
divided, with each target segment having a portion the sensitivity of the procedures. Method 5 however,
of the control area adjacent to each of its sides. indicates an increase in rainfall approaching signifi-
Separate fractions to be applied to the different cance at the 5 per cent level. Here the confidence
target segments were obtained from the corresponding limits are centered around an increase of about 0.03
control segments. By this procedure a first estimate in. per 4 hr, and extend from a slight negative value
of target rainfall was obtained. to more than 0.06 in. per 4 hr. However, the most
The procedure was refined in two ways. First, the sensitive of the tests, the subjective X- Y-T procedure
foregoing estimation method was applied to the con- 3, would appear to indicate that there is less than one
trol stations themselves, and the differences between chance in a hundred that an increase as large as 0.03
the estimated and actual rainfall at the various con- in. per 4 hr was obtained. Methods 1 and 2 may be
trol stations were noted. These estimation "errors" considered most objective, since they were performed
were examined for a significant correlation with first and corresponded closely to the procedure en-
monthly normals, and if a relationship existed it was visioned ahead of time. However, they are rather
also applied as a correction to the first estimates of insensitive in comparison with the others. The results
target rainfall. of methods 4, 5 and 6 were strongly influenced by one
The second step was to plot the residual estimation or two anomalous values appearing in each of the
errors in a narrow belt surrounding the target area. sets of individual differences. The presence of these
The errors at the individual stations within this belt values may suggest that the assumption of normality
were weighted according to the distance along the used in obtaining the confidence limits is not justified,
rim of the target closest to any given station, and and that a non-parametric test would be more
these weighted values were averaged. One half of this appropriate.
value was applied to the average estimated target The results are presented in somewhat different
rainfall as a further correction. This step resulted in form in fig. 13. The results are displayed to indicate
a rough interpolation of estimation errors over the the probability that the observed anomalies could be
target area. drawn at random from normally distributed popula-
(6) Simple interpolation-type III targets. The third tions of seeding and control periods whose true means
type targets were used in this analysis together with differed by the amounts shown on the ordinate.
jULY 1957 FERGUSON HALL 45

PERCENT PROBABILITY OF TRUE DIFFERENCE BEING GREATER THAN INDICATED

99 98 95 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2

2
+8 /
...J

~,
0
5
I /
0:
1-
z 6

v:
0
u +6 /
(/)
- I
P'
~ / 4I
;:)
Z(J)
-o:
~;:)
+4.,... / ,., ./

,,., , 1// ~ """~~

(.!)0
z:r:
00:
.,.,..- 3
,.,
W:::l
wo
~
,-
(/)U,. ~
I 0: ~+2
ww
/ ~ ~
A~
00.
z
//
w:r:
o:u
wz
u..-
/
./ 0 ,
!=z
O<l
5 /
..,.,. ~ ~ ~~
-;:; ~ ~
>-U..
...JO
<l r -2
~(/)
o:r: 0
Cf)
.,.,..-
Zl-
etC 0
w
...JO: :I:
3
/
I
-4
...JO 4 ~

~
ctZ ~
w
I
u_;:)
?:3
<l
0:
~
I ~ -6
1-
w 2 6
I
(.!)
0:
<l
1-
-8

I 2 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 98 99
PERCENT PROBABILITY OF TRUE DIFFERENCE BEING LESS THAN INDICATED

FIG. 13. Chart showing confidence limits of evaluation results.

Confidence limits of different magnitude can be read
directly from the chart. Sensitivity of the tests is
shown by the slope of the curves, the more sensitive
being more nearly horizontal.
vii. Discussion of Results. Of the six evaluations, one
has produced a positive departure that is almost
significant, four have produced departures which are
essentially zero, and one has given results between
these limits. If all of the evaluations had given about
the same result, one would have had a greater con-
fidence that any effects shown were real. In the
present case, however, it is seen that the different
methods of analyzing the data gave results which
could lead to quite different interpretations. This
suggests that the results were subject to considerable
random fluctuations in the data, and implies that
much less importance should be attached to a single
evaluation than to the six considered as a group.
Considering the results as a whole, there is no
strong evidence to support a conclusion that the seed-
ing produced measurable changes in the rainfall,
although it might be said that the positive departure
of method 5 was sufficiently marked to encourage
further testing. Although effects on precipitation were
not demo~strated, it will be observed that none of the
evaluations disallows the possibility of an increase in
rainfall, say, of the order of 15 per cent or 0.02 in.
per 4 hr. Five out of the six evaluations would not
exclude the possibility of a similar decrease in rainfall.
Considering the upper confidence limits, all of the
46 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS
evaluations would suggest that large increases of 50
to 100 per cent, such as had earlier been thought
possible, were quite unlikely with cloud seeding as
practiced by the ACN Project.
In general, the variation of the results with different
methods of analysis, as well as the rather wide con-
fidence limits imposed by the natural variability of
rainfall, both point to the fact that field tests of
limited duration will not define the effects of seeding
within the narrow limits that are undoubtedly desired,
and that tests carried forward over a considerable
period of time will be needed to establish cloud seeding
effects to an acceptable degree of precision.
It should also be kept in mind that the evaluation
procedures were not designed to detect sporadic
seeding effects, even if they were substantial. The
values obtained are for average effects throughout the
whole period of operation and include a wide variety
of seeding potentialities. Neither can it be said that
the seeding treatment necessarily reached all of the
clouds entering the target area or forming within the
area, although it was indicated in table 1 that the
wind shear often spread the seeding effects farther
than would have occurred by normal diffusion in the
seeding lines. The evaluations do not necessarily
furnish information on what the effects might have
been with more or less intense seeding activity, rate
of release of dry ice, etc. Also it might be speculated
that the seeding increased rainfall on some occasions
and decreased it on others. Furthermore the results
have no bearing on such problems as the diffusion,
effectiveness, or decay of silver iodide smoke which
may be important considerations in the evaluation of
most commercial seeding operations.
Acknowledgments-The success of the Weather
Bureau ACN Project was due to the combined effort
of many individuals. Outstanding in this respect was
the contribution of Mr. Harry L. Hamilton, Jr.,
assistant project director. Special recognition is also
due Mr. Dwight B. Kline, administrative officer in
Washington. Primary assistance in scientific design
and evaluation matters was furnished by Mr. Glenn
W. Brier, head of the Meteorological Statistics Sec-
tion of the Bureau. Evaluation work was carried out
in the main by Mr. Charles K. Stidd.
Mr. Walter H. Hoecker, Jr., served as head flight
meteorologist, and was assisted by Mr. Donald R.
Purdy and Mr. Stidd. The radar program was carried
out by Mr. Harrie E. Foster, Jr.
VoL. 2, No. 11
Special appreciation is due to Mr. John N. Yandell,
chief pilot, and Messrs. Max R. Fennell, Paul J. Du-
Pree, and the late Philip L. Schallo, first pilots, whose
efforts contributed largely to the success of the flight
program.
In addition to staff members mentioned above,
many others contributed to the success of the project.
Numerous statistical computations were carried out
by Mr. James C. Coffin and Mr. Isadore Enger of the
Central Office of the Bureau. Maintenance of the
aircraft and flight engineering duties were ably carried
out by Mr. Edward A. Evans, Mr. Cecil 0. Shupe
and Mr. Wendell D. Olson, A & E mechanics, and by
Mr. William R. Emmons, radio technician. Radar
maintenance was accomplished by Mr. John A.
Reilly. Installation and maintenance of the rain gage
network were handled by Mr. Sidney 0. Howick,
with advice and assistance from Mr. Earl L. Phillips,
in charge of the Seattle Climatological Office. Process-
ing of data was handled by Mr. George M. Foster
and by Miss Martha L. Downey. Forecasts and
operational advice were provided by the staffs of the
Weather Bureau station at Seattle and the Navy
Weather Central. Special appreciation is due to Mrs.
Marie C. Wolfe, secretary.
Finally acknowledgment is made for the support
provided by other government agencies. Appreciation
goes to the U. S. Navy for the loan of aircraft, radar
and other equipment and for the facilities and gener-
ous cooperation furnished, to the U. S. Army Signal
Corps for the loan of radar equipment and for assist-
ance in its maintenance, to the National Advisory
Committee for Aeronautics for the loan of special
cloud instrumentation, and finally to the ACN Ad-
visory Committee headed by Dr. Sverre Petterssen,
which gave support and assistance to the project in
countless ways.
REFERENCES
1. Coffin, James C., 1954: A method of estimating precipitation
normals for short-record stations. Trans. Amer. geophys.
Union, 35, no. 3, 405-412.
2. Hoe!, P. G., 1947: Introduction to mathematical statistics. John
Wiley & Sons, New York, N.Y., 258 pp.
3. Perkins, P. ]., 1952: Preliminary survey of icing conditions
measured during routine trans-continental airline opera-
tion. N.A.C.A. res. Memo. E52J06, 27 pp.
4. U. S. Weather Bureau, 1952: Tentative plans for Weather
Bureau Artificial Cloud Nucleation (ACN) Project., U. S.
Weather Bureau, Washington, D. C., 18 pp. (mimeo-
graphed).
CLOUD AND WEATHER MODIFICATION:
a group of field experiments
by
S. Petterssen; J. Spar; F. Hall;
R. R. Braham, Jr., L. J. Battan, and H. R. Byers;
H. J. aufm Kampe, J. J. Kelly, and H. K. Weickmann.

IV. ARTIFICIAL NUCLEATION OF CUMULUS CLOUDS

By ROSCOE R. BRAHAM, JR., LOUIS J. BATTAN, AND HORACE R. BYERS
University of Chicago
(Manuscript received 3 April 1956)

ABSTRACT

A field research program was designed to obtain statistically significant answers concerning the efficacy
of precipitation inducement methods in cumulus clouds. Operations were carried out in the Caribbean Sea
area and in the Central United States. Successful experiments were conducted on 122 valid pairs of clouds.
Each pair of clouds consisted of one treated and one untreated cloud. The treated cloud was randomly
selected.
Field and laboratory measurements were analyzed in terms of a general physical description of the prop-
erties of cumulus clouds of all types; the basic precipitation mechanisms and the conditions under which
they are effective; the effects of the environment conditions on the development of precipitation; and the
efficacy of dry ice and water spray treatment for inducing the formation of precipitation. It was shown
that precipitation in tropical cumuli develops from an all-water, condensation-coalescence mechanism.
Because of the measured abundance of large hygroscopic nuclei in these regions, this process can proceed
effectively at low levels within the clouds. As a result, precipitation in tropical cumuli develops before the
cloud has had time to grow more than a few thousand feet above the base.
Summer cumulus congestus over Central United States appear to initially develop precipitation both by
the condensation-coalescence mechanism and by the sublimation-coalescence mechanism. The relative
number of clouds which develop precipitation by either of these methods depends upon the lifetime of the
cloud and the number and size of large hygroscopic nuclei in the air from which the cloud grew. Measure-
ments of the level of initial precipitation formation in these clouds and studies of the particulate content
of the air over Central United States show that the all-water mechanism is probably the dominant mecha-
nism in this region.
Analysis of the cloud treatment studies showed that precipitation could be initiated in tropical cumuli
through the introduction of water spray in large quantities. Ice-forming reagents were apparently not useful
in the tropical clouds studied. Studies involving both dry ice and water spray treatment were carried out
in cumuli over the continent. Any effects from seeding these clouds were too small to be detected in the
sample size obtained.

1. Specific aims which govern the formation of precipitation and not

The aim of the University of Chicago Cloud Physics
Project, defined at the time of inception of the
Artificial Cloud Nucleation program, is as follows:
"The formulation of a consistent and immediately
applicable picture of the processes of formation of
cumulus clouds, charged centers and precipitation
with a view toward testing the possibility that one
can modify these processes and influence the natural
behavior of clouds."
It should be emphasized that the general objective
of these studies has been to obtain a more complete
understanding on the fundamental physical processes
47
to carry out a series of "cut and try" experiments
aimed at determining the efficacy of cloud treatment.
Those working in the field of experimental meteorology
and in particular those engaged in cloud treatment
research are well aware of the complexity of cloud
processes and the vastness of the scale of cloud
domains which make cloud treatment studies among
the least tractable of present day geophysical prob-
lems. Inevitably a question is encountered that is
virtually without answer; namely, what events would
have occurred had natural processes been left to
operate on artificially seeded clouds. It is the opinion
48 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS VoL. 2, No. 11

of the principal investigators that ultimate success in
the matter of increasing the rainfall from cumulus
clouds will come from a more complete appreciation
of the physics of the problem. The task to which the
Chicago group addressed themselves, therefore, was
that of devising a set of experiments incorporating
suitable theoretical analysis to shed as much light as
possible on the complex problems of artificial cloud
nucleation.
Because of the great complexity of the problem and
because questions involved could not all be answered
by any one set of experiments, the general objectives
of the Cloud Physics Project were reformulated into
a group of immediate objectives to be accomplished
through a combination of theoretical studies, labora-
tory experiments and field measurements:
1. To conduct flight and field investigations to
determine the physical conditions of the cloud
and environment that lead to precipitation
formation. This study would include measure-
ments of those variables which the work of
previous investigators showed to be important
in the formation of precipitation.
2. To carry out randomized cloud treatment
routines to produce valid statistical conclusions
about the effects of treating convective clouds.
3. To conduct laboratory and theoretical studies to
explain the observed processes and develop fur-
ther understanding of the precipitation process.
4. To analyze the data from the flight, field and
laboratory programs in a manner that would
establish the relationships between measured

FrG. 1. Schematic drawing of B-17 research airplane. Upper drawing: Equipment on left side of airplane. Lower drawing: Equipment
on right side of airplane. Numbers correspond to items of equipment listed below.
1) Chaff dispensing chute; 2) photo box; 3) photo box camera; 4) meteorological instrument engineer's station; 5) signal junction
box, 6) power junction box; 7) modulator, belly radar AN/APQ-13A; 8) radio frequency unit, belly radar AN/APQ-13A; 9) antenna
system AS-54/APQ-13; 10) belly radar indicator; 11) radar camera magazine rack; 12) radio transmitter ART-13; 13) altimeter
ART-13; 14) water tank; 15) controller's instrument panel; 16) dew point hydrometer amplifier; 17) dew point sensing head; 18)
cloud droplet sampler; 19) cloud droplet microscope and camera; 20) cloud droplet sample timer; 21) antenna system AS-54/APQ-13;
22) radio frequency unit, nose radar AN/APQ-13A; 23) radar test set AN/UPM-10; 24) pressure transducers; 25) nuclei sampling
equipment; 26) aerograph system components; 27) nose radar indicator; 28) inverter, 400 cps; 29) junction box of AN/APQ-13A;
30) VHF transmitter; 31) phasing units and torque amplifiers of radar sets; 32) rectifiers and voltage regulators of radar sets; 33)
range units of radar sets; 34) junction box; 35) nose radar indicator; 36) synchronizers of radar sets; 37) nose radar camera control
boxes; 38) azimuth control boxes of radar sets; 39) control boxes of radar sets; 40) power junction box no. 2; 41) radio receiver BC-
348; 42) modulator, nose radar AN/APQ-13A; 43) IFF AN/APX-6; 44) constant voltage transformer; 45) aerograph recorder;
46) cloud sampler's instrument panel; 47) inverter, 60 cps; 48) dry ice crusher.
JULY 1957 R. R. BRAHAM, JR., L. J.
cloud variables and the resulting cloud behavior,
whether natural or artificially stimulated.
Fortunately, it is possible to devise experiments for
artificial inducement of precipitation which simul-
taneously provide information pretaining to the
problem of natural precipitation. The details of the
design of these experiments are set forth in section 3
of this paper.
2. Instrumentation*
The instruments needed to carry out the research
program were many and varied. This was true
particularly because of the strong emphasis placed
upon the fundamental aspects of cloud treatment. A
discussion of the instrumentation is best divided into
two parts: (1) instruments used in connection with
the flight program, and (2) instruments used in
connection with the ground studies at Champaign,
Illinois. With a few exceptions, which are discussed
in section 6, the instruments used in the laboratory
were not unique. Since the major effort went into the
flight program, the instruments used in that effort
will be discussed first and given greatest attention.
A group of specially equipped U. S. Air Force
airplanes was used for the flight program. The instru-
ments used for physical and meteorological measure-
ments were constructed by the Chicago group and
installed in the airplanes at the Middletown Air
Force Depot. In addition to these special instruments,
several items of standard Air Force equipment, such
as radars, were installed to assist in the measurement
program.
i. Airplanes. The Air Force assigned three B-17 and
one B-26 airplanes to the project. These aircraft were
accompanied by an operational detachment.t The
B-17 airplanes, extensively instrumented, were used
for actual probes of cumulus clouds and for cloud
treatment. The B-26 was used for photographic and
reconnaissance purposes and required a minimum of
instrumentation.
There were several major items of modification of
the B-17 aircraft: (1) mounting a radar and sensing
probes on the nose (2) locating a cloud sampler with
appropriate equipment inside the nose section, (3)
installing a plastic bubble or dome 4 ft in diameter
in the top turret position as a station for the flight
controller, (4) installing a radar in the belly-turret
position, (5) mounting radar scopes and controls in
*For a complete discussion of the instrumentation used in this
research, the reader is referred to "Instrumentation of B-17 Air-
planes for Cloud Physics Research," by K. E. Newton, Univ. of
Chicago, Cloud Physics Res., Tech. Note No.4, Nov. 15, 1955.
t Detachment 1, 6520th Flight Test Squadron, Air Force Cam-
bridge Research Center.
BATTAN, AND H. R. BYERS 49
the radio compartment, (6) establishing a meteoro-
logical instrument engineer's station in the waist
section where all instrument amplifiers and controls
and recording systems were located, (7) installing dry
ice dispensing equipment in the tail of the waist
section and water dumping facilities in the bomb bay,
and (8) interconnecting all stations in the aircraft.
The general layout of these stations is shown in fig. 1.
On a normal cloud treatment mission the B-17
carried an Air Force crew consisting of: pilot, co-pilot,
flight engineer, radio operator, and radar operator.
Civilians from the University of Chicago were the
scientific flight controller, cloud sampler and meteoro-
logical instrument engineer. The flight controller was
in charge of the scientific aspects of the flight. Sta-
tioned in the dome, he was in an excellent position to
select clouds for study and make visual observations
on their development. The cloud sampler operated the
sampling equipment and special instruments which
were mounted in the nose section. He also assisted the
radar operator in calibrating the nose radar. Control
of all measuring and recording equipment was cen-
tralized at the meteorological instrument engineer's
station in the waist section of the airplane.
The B-17 aircraft suitably met the flight operation
requirements of the project, having a cruising speed
of approximately 150 kt, a service ceiling between
20,000 and 25,000 ft and a cruising range of the order
of 10 hr. A large cruising range is virtually mandatory
in studies of this kind in order to find enough cumuli
suitable for treatment.
ii. Airborne radar.
(a) Nose radar. For rain m1t1ation studies the
nose radar is the most important single item of equip-
ment in the airplane. It was used as the standard for
determining the occurrence of precipitation in the
test clouds. The nose radar was an AN/ APQ-13,
standard in every respect except that it was mounted
to rotate about the flight axis of the airplane. This
type of mounting, shown in fig. 1, permitted the
presentation of a vertical cross section normal to the
flight path of the airplane. This installation was
patterned after an earlier one by Smith [52]. The
information from this radar was presented on a scope
in the radar operator's position in the radio room
behind the bomb bay, where it was viewed by means
of a dichoric mirror arrangement and photographed
with an Air Force camera Type 0-15. This preserved
a complete record of precipitation formation in test
clouds. Figure 2 illustrates types of data obtainable
from this installation. A second scope on the nose
radar was located at the controller's position in the
dome.
50 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS
. FIG. 2. Photograph of nose radar indica tor showing precipita-
tion echoes. Range markers at interva ls of 1 n mi. Nearly hori-
zontal line at 1.3 mi below indicator center represents ocean
surface.
In the nose of the airplane was located a radar-test
set AN/UPM-10 which was used to measure the
transmitted power, the transmitted wave length, and
the receiver sensitivity. In order to make the radar
observa tions of the clouds comparable, the radar
sensitivity was adjusted to a particular value and
maintained at this level by periodic checks during the
flight. With the use of the radar equation and several
assumptions, calculations were made of detectable
drop size as a function of the range and liquid water
content of the drops. It was found t hat, at a range of
2000 ft a nd liquid water content of 1 gm per m 3 , a
receiver sensitivity of 76 db below a milliwatt cor-
responded to a detectable signal from drops hav ing
diameters of about 150 J.l.. One of the assumptions,
namely, uniform drop size, is not in accord with the
observations; however, since most of the returned
energy is from the larger drops, the calculations
should give the proper order of magnitude. Experience
in using the rada r set at a sensitivity of 76 db showed
that it was very effective in distinguishing between
precipitating and non-precipitating clouds.
It was standard practice to allow the radar to warm
up for at least 30 min before attempting to calibrate
and adjust the receiver sensitivity. Then the radar
operator prepared the radar for use according to
standard practice. The transmitted wave length,
transmitted power and receiver sensitivity were
measured with the AN/UPM-10. This gave a check
on the performance characteristics of the set. The
VoL. 2, No. 11
sensitivity of the set was reduced to the desired value
of 76 db as determined by the test set. This procedure
was repeated several times during the flight and after
the conclusion of test activities. As a consequence, it
is possible to assign quantitative as well as qualitative
significance to the nose radar data.
(b) Belly radar. A second AN/APQ-13 radar was
installed in the former "belly-turret" position on the
underside of the fuselage. The information from this
set also was presented on a scope in the radar opera-
tor's position. This set was installed for obtaining a
PPI type presentation of other clouds and ground
targets which would aid in reconstructing the flight
data. The set was equipped with a slave scope which
also was photographed with an 0-15 type camera.
iii. Airborne meteorological measurements.
(a) Temperature measurements. The temperature
of the free air, both in and around clouds, was meas-
ured with housed copper-constantan thermocouples .
Two separate and complete temperature systems were
used on each airplane. One made use of a vortex type
housing patterned after a design by Harney [23].
The other was shielded inside a reverse flow housing
adapted from a design by the National Research
Council of Canada. The use of two temperature
measuring systems was dictated by a lack of confidence
in the performance of either of the two systems
individually . It was thought that the vortex ther-
mometer would reduce dynamic heating corrections
and give accurate indications while in clear air, but
it was also thought that it was likely to get wet inside
clouds and thus give erroneous indications. It was
realized, moreover, that during icing conditions, ice
collected on the intake port would affect its charac-
teristics and invalida te tempera ture measurements.
The NRC housing was known to remain dry in wind
tunnel tests and would thus be able to give reliable
temperature indica tions inside clouds but it was also
known that this housing necessitated an air speed
correction.
Experience showed tha t both thermocouples re-
mained dry during traverses through clouds of light
to moderate water content. Whether or not this was
true for clouds containing heavy rain is doubtful.
The output of each thermocouple was amplified and
recorded. Measurements of temperature variations in
cloud air temperature are considered accurate to
±0.1C.
(b) Dew point temperature. The humidity of the
air in the cloud environment was measured by means
of an electronic dew point hygrometer, essentially an
improved model of the Barrett and Herndon instru-
jULY 1957 R. R. BRAHAM, JR., L. ]. BATTAN, AND H.
ment [1; 2]. The sensing system was located in the
nose section of the airplane where a 1-in. tube of
minimum length brought a sample of outside air
into the sensing chamber. The signal from the thermo-
couple in the sensing mirror was amplified and re-
corded in a manner identical to that of the free air
temperature. During most of the early flights instru-
ment malfunction made dew point measurements of
questionable value. These troubles were corrected
during the summer of 1954 with the result that mean-
ingful measurements were made on many of the later
flights.
(c) Cloud droplet sampling. Measurements of cloud
droplet number, size and size distribution were made
at discrete points inside the clouds by means of an
oil-slide cloud droplet sampler [5]. In mechanical
arrangement this device is similar to tliose used by
Golitzine [20], Squires and Gillespie [55] and others.
Droplet collections could be made at three points
inside the cloud on any one penetration. Between
cloud traverses the droplets were photographed under
a microscope for analysis in the laboratory.
The precise time at which each sample was taken
and an indication of the volume of air sampled was
recorded on the oscillograph by an electro-mechanical
timer.
(d) Liquid water content measurement. The liquid
water content of the clouds was measured with an
Australian conductometric type water content meter
[59]. Dr. E. G. Bowen of the Commonwealth Scien-
tific and Industrial Research Laboratory kindly
furnished this equipment to the University of Chicago
group. In principal, this device consists of a paper
tape which moves behind a narrow slit exposed to
the wind stream. Water impinges upon the tape,
changing its resistance to a degree proportional to the
water content. The resistance of the paper tape is
monitored by a simple electronic system and recorded
for later analysis. Although the water content meter
was installed during the winter of 1953-54, it was
late summer 1954 before it was working in a satis-
factory manner. For this reason, liquid water measure-
ments were limited to the last half of the operational
period.
(e) Electrostatic field measurements. Electric field
meters operating on the electrostatic induction
principle were installed in an effort to obtain an
estimate of the magnitude of electrical effects which
are thought to be important in droplet coalescence.
These meters were installed in the wing tips of the
B-17's, facing straight outward, to measure the span-
wise component of the potential gradient. The signal
from each meter was amplified and recorded on the
R. BYERS 51
oscillograph. With frequent calibration the accuracy
of the instrument system was within ±3 per cent.
(f) Icing rate meters. Cook Electric Company
orifice type icing rate detectors were installed in each
of the B-17 aircraft. Although these devices operated
in a satisfactory manner, they were of little value in
this research because of the very short duration of
icing conditions on a pass through a cumulus cloud.
(g) Altitude and air speed measurements. To assess
major draft and turbulence areas in clouds and for
reducing data from other instruments, air speed and
altitude measurements were recorded.
Commercial type pressure transducers with ap-
propriate control units were used to record these
quantities on the oscillograph with an accuracy of
better than ± 1 per cent. Standard aircraft altitude
and air speed gages were used in the photo box for a
corroborative record of these vital quantities.
(h) Cloud treatment. Operation of the dry ice and
water dispensing equipment is discussed in section 4.
(i) Visual cloud cameras. Photographs of the
visual cloud were made by the controller in the dome
and by the photographer in the nose of the B-26. For
this purpose the controller used a 35 mm still camera.
The photographer in the B-26 used both 16 and 35
mm movie cameras.
iv. Airborne data recording and time synchronization.
During cloud traverses all data of a quantitative
nature were recorded on a multichannel recording
oscillograph. This gave continuous records of the me-
teorological and hydrodynamic parameters in both
the cloud and its environment.
Certain kinds of data such as airplane attitude and
heading, counter numbers and other similar informa-
tion were not easily adaptable for recording on the
oscillograph. Indicators for these data were mounted
on a panel and were photographed once every second
with a 16 mm movie camera. All intercom conversa-
tions and all radio transmissions were recorded.
Internal synchronization of all records and recordings
was accomplished by mounting Veeder-Root Series
1248 reset magnetic counters at all stations in the
airplane. The counters were zeroed before each mis-
sion and, once started, remained in operation through-
out the flight. A pulse derived from a cam operated
switch actuated all counters simultaneously.
Synchronization between the several airplanes on
a given mission was accomplished by starting the
counters in all airplanes at the same instant through
a voice count-down procedure radioed from the lead
airplane. All observations and measurements were
made with respect to the counter number rather than
with respect to the reading of a clock. The use of
counters has been shown to facilitate analysis and to
52 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS
be much more reliable than the use of clocks. With
this system it was possible to synchronize the various
records from a single airplane with an accuracy better
than 1 sec. The synchronization of records from one
airplane with those of another had an accuracy of 1
to 2 sec.
v. Champaign field site. Some aspects of precipitation
development can be analyzed more readily from a
fixed ground station than from an airplane. For this
reason a field site was established at the University of
Illinois Airport. The objectives of the research at the
field site were the study of precipitation from all-
water clouds and an investigation of the possible
importance of electric fields on the coalescence
process. These studies required several items of
special equipment, most of which were built in the
shops and laboratories of the Cloud Physics Project
and transported to the field site. Certain items of
equipment were leased from the Illinois State Water
Survey which operated the field site on a subcontract
from the University of Chicago. The chief instruments
located at the field site were radar sets AN/TPS-10
and AN/APS-15, a network of electric field meters,
two panoramic cameras and particulate samplers.
3. Design of experimental and observational program*
In devising cloud modification experiments, the
basic problem is to separate the effect of the treatment
process from the effects produced from purely natural
causes. It is this basic uncertainty regarding the pre-
dictability of any given meteorological process that
characterizes much of the science of meteorology. The
experiments carried out by the University of Chicago
group were designed to maximize the chance of detecting
small artificial effects in the presence of large natural
ones. This required special precautions to guard against
subjectivity and bias of the experimenters, and to
insure that temporal, regional and meteorological
variations in the natural behavior of clouds did not
invalidate the results. It also required many special
flights and experiments to study some particular
aspect of the natural behavior of clouds. Further, it
necessitated the measurement, on all flights, of many
physical and meteorological variables which were
thought to be important in determining the probability
of natural precipitation and in discerning the differ-
ences between naturally and artificially induced rain.
In addition to the airborne measurement program,
studies made from the ground and in the laboratory
* Certain parts of this section were originally prepared for a
special report to the President's Advisory Committee on Weather
Control which has kindly consented to use of the report in this
paper.
VoL. 2, No. 11
were used to obtain information concerning natural
precipitation processes.
i. Initiation versus increase of precipitation. In design-
ing an experiment in cloud modification, it is very
important to differentiate between initiating and
increasing precipitation. In general, it is not possible
to study both processes in the same experiment. It
has been asserted that both of these effects have
occurred as a result of cloud treatment.
The term initiating precipitation refers to the
process of causing precipitation from clouds that
would not otherwise precipitate, or alternatively, it
is the process of initiating precipitation significantly
earlier than would have occurred naturally. Experi-
ments for initiating precipitation are usually predi-
cated upon the hypothesis that some vital character-
istic or property of the cloud is missing and thus
inhibiting the formation of natural rain. Successful
inducement of precipitation may increase, decrease,
or leave unaltered the amount of water which reaches
the ground from a given cloud or from a whole cloud
system.
The term increasing precipitation refers to the act
of setting into motion any mechanism which will
actually result in greater amounts of rainfall reaching
the ground from a cloud or cloud system than would
have occurred naturally. Increasing precipitation
implies changing the efficiency of the natural precipi-
tation process, or altering it in such a way that a
change in scale of the process occurs. That is to say,
additional energy may be released to cause growth of
the cloud system or intensification of its rain-produc-
ing processes. The work of the University of Chicago
Cloud Physics Project for this project has dealt
almost exclusively with the matter of initiating the
precipitation process in cumulus clouds.*
ii. Variation in natural behavior of cumulus clouds.
The crux of the problem of cloud modification con-
cerns the natural variability of clouds and their
attendant precipitation. It is appreciated that, on
any given day, it is possible to find many clouds of
nearly identical properties and also to find that pre-
cipitation will develop in only a fraction of them. If
some characteristic or property of the cloud has an
influence on the development of precipitation, the
probability of precipitation will vary with this
parameter and this dependence can be plotted in
conventional form. If cloud treatment has any effect,
the probability of precipitation will be different for
* There are several other aspects of the problem which, though
important, will not be discussed here. They include changing the
rate of precipitation, eliminating lightning and hail, and causing
precipitation to fall as snow on higher slopes rather than rain on
lower slopes.
}ULY 1957 R. R. BRAHAM, JR., L. J.
at least some values of this parameter among the
treated, as contrasted with the untreated clouds. If
a single parameter, or perhaps a group of parameters,
were the only quantities influencing the probability
of precipitation from clouds, then in principle the
effect of modification treatments could be simply
tested and evaluated.
As yet, however, meteorologists have discovered no
single parameter, or small group of parameters, that
uniquely determine the probability of precipitation.
This probability varies in a complex way as a result
of many factors changing with time and place. While
it is possible to speak of the probabilities of precipita-
tion from a randomly selected cloud with respect to
observable criteria such as height of cloud top and
temperature, it is recognized that these probabilities
vary from flight to flight. Accordingly, average, or
expected, probabilities of precipitation should be
computed for all flights within a given broad time
band and geographical area.
It is expected that clouds observed on one flight will
be more alike with respect to precipitation probability
than clouds observed on different flights. The design
of the experiment allowed for this by calling for the
observation of a pair of clouds, one treated and one
not treated. Elaborate precautions were taken to
ensure independence between the choice of clouds for
observation and the decision to treat or not to treat.
The analysis of the experiment allowed for the vari-
ability and probability described above by using the
so-called correlated 2 X 2 table analysis.
iii. Cloud census approach. Because of the known
day-to-day, season-to-season, and even year-to-year
variations in the behavior of clouds, the experimental
design of the Chicago group incorporated a measure
of the precipitation distribution for natural clouds for
each period of operations. This was done by means
of the cloud census.*
The cloud census consisted of an examination of a
great number of clouds over a short period of time
that differed in some specific parameter in order to
determine which of them had developed precipitation
through natural processes. In the Cloud Physics
Project studies, airplanes were used to measure the
heights of the cloud tops and to check for echoes with
the calibrated radar. From these data it was possible
to determine the precipitation probability as a function
of cloud height and consequently as a function of
cloud thickness and cloud top temperature. Hence,
temporal and regional variation in the behavior of
clouds could be determined ; also the role of ice
*A plan for a census of the clouds appears to have had its
origin with S. E. Reynolds and E. J. Workman of the New
Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology.
BATTAN, AND H. R. BYERS 53
forming processes in precipitation development could
be assessed.
The results derived from the cloud census, and the
way in which it contributes to an understanding of
the precipitation process in clouds and to the evalua-
tion of modification attempts, is covered in later
sections.
iv. Physical basis for precipitation initiation. There
are two different combinations of physical properties
within cumulus clouds which are equally capable of
producing precipitation elements. The first of these
is the combination of a subcooled cloud (temperature
<OC) and a source of ice nuclei. This combination
produces what the cloud physicist sometimes calls
cold-cloud rain. The second combination is a reason-
ably high liquid water content and a broad cloud-
droplet size distribution. This can lead to warm-cloud
rain. Natural clouds precipitate by both methods;
in addition there may be other combinations of
physical properties, as yet unknown, that are favor-
able for rain.
There are two different physical processes operating
as two separate steps in the formation of precipitation
by either method. The initial growth of cloud droplets
or ice crystals is through a diffusive process. Through
molecular diffusion, water vapor is driven to the
cloud elements by minute vapor pressure differences
existing between the surfaces of the cloud elements
and the surrounding atmosphere. The rate of growth
by diffusion is a function of the kind of nuclei (either
condensation, sublimation or freezing), size of particle
involved, the water phase involved (ice or liquid),
the ambient supersaturation, largely a function of the
updraft speed, and other physical parameters. There
have been a number of theoretical studies and labora-
tory investigations of the growth of cloud elements
by diffusion. These studies are in general agreement
and all show that, although initial growth is very
rapid, the process slows down as the particles become
larger. Before the particles have grown to precipita-
tion element sizes, the growth by diffusion becomes
negligible for producing convective precipitation.
The second physical process involved in the growth
of precipitation elements is that of collision and
coalescence. The falling speeds of cloud droplets and
precipitation elements are largely governed by their
size. In a cloud containing particles of differing size,
the larger ones fall relative to the others and grow
at the expense of the smaller droplets in the vicinity.
The rate of growth by the coalescence process is a
function of the number of particles and their relative
sizes and falling speeds, the collision and coalescence
efficiencies, and the liquid water content of the cloud
(assumed to be largely contained in the smaller
54 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS
droplets). There have been theoretical and laboratory
studies of the growth of precipitation particles by
coalescence; unfortunately, the results of these studies
are not in good agreement. The rate of growth of a
droplet by coalescence increases with increasing
droplet size. For average cloud conditions, coalescence
probably is the predominant growth mechanism,
once the droplets reach a diameter of a few tens of
microns. The major growth of snowflakes is also
through the action of coalescence.
The Cloud Physics Project experimental program
was designed to study precipitation initiated both
through the ice phase process and through an all-
water, coalescence process. The methods of treatment
and the requirements of clouds acceptable for study
are quite different in the two cases. Details of each of
these types of studies are set forth below.
A valid experiment is impossible without a satis-
factory means to determine its success or failure. It is
important to decide upon a pertinent, unequivocal
standard by which to judge the experiment and to
provide an unbiased method of making this judgment.
Fortunately, it was possible to draw upon the exten-
sive experience of other researchers and commercial
operators some of whom were hampered by the lack
of a suitable standard by which to judge the outcome
of their experiments. In Cloud Physics Project
operations, the success of each experiment was judged
by means of a carefully calibrated radar, the scope of
which was photographed.
v. Physical basis for precipitation increase. There are
no clear cut models which would support the conten-
tion that cloud treatment will yield an increase in
rainfall from clouds that are already precipitating, or
that will soon precipitate, as a result of purely natural
causes. Nevertheless, there are certain possibilities
which have been suggested and which merit considera-
tion even though they are not sufficiently well under-
stood to constitute an acceptable physical model.
Two ways in which cloud treatment may increase
precipitation are, by increasing the efficiency of the
precipitation process in a cloud already raining and
by changing the scale or magnitude of the cloud
system from which precipitation falls through purely
natural processes.
It is well known that natural precipitation is a
rather inefficient process [8]. It has been contended
that, if there are too few particles which can serve as
nuclei for the growth of precipitation elements, the
number of raindrops produced will be relatively low
and only a small fraction of the water in the cloud
will precipitate. In this case nuclei of a suitable kind
could be added to increase precipitation from the
cloud.
VoL. 2, No. 11
Another possibility wherein cloud treatment might
improve upon nature is illustrated by the following
reasoning. Assume that the number of nuclei is just
sufficient to precipitate the available water in a cloud.
In this case each raindrop will have maximum size
and upon impact with the surface can damage the
soil by erosion. To add nuclei in this case might in-
crease the number of raindrops, thus reducing their
size and leading to a more useful kind of precipitation
even though the amount of rain might not be altered.
The possibility must be recognized that adding
nuclei may well hinder the production of rainfall.
It has been frequently contended that the apparent
failure of some rain-making tests resulted from the
addition of too many nuclei. In such a case the result-
ing precipitation elements are too numerous, compete
for available water, and grow too slowly to ever be-
come large enough to fall as rain. Although this is
a definite possibility, there is, however, very little
evidence in the literature to support this contention.
In fact, it has been suggested that it is very difficult to
produce enough effective nuclei to overseed a cloud
[46]. There are many reports of successful rain pro-
duction experiments in which the amount of dry ice
used was of the order of a hundred pounds or more in
a single convective cloud [7; 27; 29].
There is still another way in which cloud modifica-
tion might increase rainfall. If, for any reason,
treatment resulted in an increase of the size of the
cloud the amount of rain reaching the surface may
be increased. By virtue of the released latent heat of
sublimation, any treatment which results in the
formation of ice in the cloud actually adds energy
to the system. It has been suggested that this added
energy causes the cloud to grow, entrains additional
moist air at lower levels and thus triggers the develop-
ment of whole cloud systems.* The same result
might be produced in an all-water coalescence process;
by treating the clouds with water drops the drag on
the air is reduced allowing it to rise. Additional
research is required to determine the importance of
such effects as these in the production of rain.
Tests to determine the efficiency of cloud treatment
to increase precipitation are more difficult than are
those for precipitation initiation. The initiation of
precipitation is easily distinguished by means of radar.
On the other hand, experiments to increase rainfall
must be judged on the basis of rainfall amounts
measured at or near the ground. Evaluations of such
experiments in the past have usually made use of the
historical record of the rainfall for the area in question.
This leads immediately to serious problems of temporal
* The reader is referred to paper II of this monograph which
deals with the modification of large scale weather systems.
jULY 1957 R. R. BRAHAM, ]R., L. J. BATTAN, AND H. R. BYERS
and meteorological variations which, to date, have
not been resolved satisfactorily.
Because of the limited time and resources available
for this research, the problem of increasing precipita-
tion received second priority by the Chicago group.
Even with the use of several airplanes of considerable
range, the sample of clouds available for study was
only marginally large enough for sound analysis of
treatment. To be restricted to a surface rain gage
network that is closely spaced (because of the very
local nature of convective rain) might make convec-
tive cloud treatment studies hopelessly protracted.
The radar measurements on treated versus untreated
clouds, along with other meteorological measurements,
will be analyzed for any information that might shed
light on this part of the problem.
vi. Experimental procedure. The primary observa-
tional facility of Cloud Physics Project operations
was a group of airplane flights around and through
cumulus clouds to carry out the randomized treatment
program and to measure various parameters of the
clouds· by which to judge the effect of the treatment.
The airplanes were maintained and operated by the
Air Force but were instrumented by Project personnel
(see section 2). Flights were conducted from August
1953 through November 1954 from bases in Illinois
and Puerto Rico.
Ideally, a mission would involve two B-17 aircraft,
used to make actual measurements and to carry out
the cloud treatment, and a B-26, used for photography
and general reconnaissance. In actual practice it was
frequently necessary to conduct the mission without
the B-26 or with only one B-17. The design of the
experiment permitted this even though the data
obtained were less complete than those from a full
scale mission. A typical flight can be broken into the
following parts:
1. The airplanes were flown in an altitude array in
a region where cumulus clouds had developed,
or where they were expected to develop, in order
to measure the environmental conditions of the
clouds.
2. A cumulus cloud was selected for study and an
inspection was made to determine its eligibility
for further measurements. This required a pass
through or very close to the cloud. The require-
ments for eligibility differed somewhat depend-
ing upon whether the proposed treatment was
to be with water or with dry ice pellets. Details
of cloud selection are covered in the next sub-
section.
3. Having selected an eligible cloud for study, a
pattern of repeated passes through it was
55
followed in order to chart the cloud development
from the beginning of precipitation to cloud
dissipation. The usual procedure consisted of
flying a uniform race-track pattern with re-
peated passes through the cloud on the same
heading. Turns were made in alternate directions
after successive passes, thus providing measure-
ments of the cloud and its environment. This
pattern was also favorable for photographing the
visual cloud. The leading airplane flew at an
altitude such that it penetrated the upper one-
third of the cloud. The following airplane
penetrated the lower one-third of the cloud. The
flight path of the second airplane outside the
cloud was one duplicated as nearly as possible
through visual contact with the forward aircraft.
In all cases, the senior scientist in the upper
airplane selected the cloud for study and deter-
mined the headings on which penetrations
would be made.
4. After a cloud had been selected for study, the
senior scientist acting as flight controller, in-
structed the meteorological instrument engineer
to release the treating reagent on the next pass.
The cloud was or was not treated depending
upon further instructions available only to the
meteorological instrument engineer. The senior
scientist who selected the clouds for study was
physically isolated from other scientists and had
no knowledge of which clouds were treated until
after each mission was completed. The details of
the randomization are covered in section 3 viii,
page 56.
5. Whether or not the cloud was treated, observa-
tions and measurements continued until it had
dissipated, developed into a well defined rain-
storm, or lost its identity by merging with other
clouds. Recording instruments were left on
throughout the period that a cloud was under
observation.
The experimental procedure was varied a little on
flights designed primarily for cloud census. For a
cloud census flight it was necessary to have two air-
craft. The pilot of one would select and fly through
any cloud in the sky which extended to the flight
altitude or higher. The second airplane, flying contact
with visual reference to the first, would just skim
over the cloud top at the time of cloud penetration
by the first. The actual height of the cloud was thus
measured by the upper airplane and radioed to the
lower. While penetrating the cloud, the radar observer
would check for the presence of an echo inside the
cloud. This was later verified by the examination of
56 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS
the photographs of the radar scope. In this manner,
it was possible to examine many clouds on a single
flight and from data such as these to estimate the
probability of precipitation in clouds of any given
height.*
vii. Criteria for cloud eligibility. For dry ice treating
a cloud was considered eligible for study if it met the
following conditions:
(1) There was no precipitation during the inspection
pass as indicated by the total absence of an echo on
the calibrated nose radar scope.
(2) The appearance of the cloud (solid base and hard
sides with a lack of holes, shelves, etc.) indicated that
continued growth was likely.
(3) The cloud had reached sufficient height that the
top airplane, flying at a level where the air temperature
was approximately - 2C or colder, could fly through
the cloud and still have several hundred feet or more
of cloud above the airplane.
(4) The cloud was located in an area where there was
no evidence of gross natural seeding by rain from a
middle cloud layer, snowing cirrus, or ice-laden middle
cloud types.
(5) The cloud under study was reasonably well iso-
lated from other clouds so that there was a good
chance that it could be positively identified on later
passes.
In every instance the attitude of the controller
was a positive one, that is, from the clouds present
he selected those which he thought had the best
chance of continued development and natural rain.
Before leaving the matter of cloud eligibility it
must be pointed out that it was generally quite
difficult to find clouds which met all the listed require-
ments. The requirements of eligibility for water
treatment were roughly equivalent to those for dry
ice treatment with the exception of the height of the
cloud top. It was very hard to find clouds in the tropics
which extended above about 10,000 ft and which did
not already contain precipitation elements sufficiently
large and numerous to produce a radar echo. This is
shown most clearly in the results of the cloud census
measurements (section 5 ii, page 65). Frequently,
clouds of apparent suitability were found to contain a
radar echo even though there was no visual evidence of
precipitation. This clearly indicated the necessity for
using radar which permits the detection of precipita-
tion within the cloud.
* Rigorously speaking, the probability of precipitation deter-
mined in this fashion is not directly comparable to the proba-
bility determined from the data obtained in the treatment
experiment on which repeated passes were made through the
same cloud. Although the differences in these probabilities are
not yet completely understood, it is felt that direct comparison
does not lead to a misinterpretation of the data.
VoL. 2, No. 11
The flight procedure adopted for this research con-
sisted of examining a cloud for an echo before flying
through it on a treatment pass. This meant that the
cloud had to remain eligible for a period of 2 to 4 min.
In 17 per cent of all clouds studied, it was found that
an echo developed between the time of the initial
inspection and the time of the treatment pass. In
these instances the cloud was not suitable for testing
the treatment hypothesis, although it provided usable
information concerning the degree to which treatment
caused the resulting precipitation echo to differ from
natural precipitation echoes.
viii. Randomization of treatment. It was realized from
the start that the crux of the experimental design
lay in devising a scheme that would allow for natural
variations in the behavior of clouds. The Cloud
Physics Project was fortunate to have available at
the University of Chicago a group known as the
Committee on Statistics. In consultation with this
group, it was decided that the maximum amount of
useful data would be obtained through a scheme of
studying clouds in pairs, treating one cloud and not
the other. Which cloud of the pair was treated was
determined by a randomization procedure equivalent
to flipping a coin. The instructions as to which cloud
of the pair was to be treated were contained in sealed
envelopes prepared by the statisticians assisting in
the research. Envelopes were opened by the meteoro-
logical instrument engineer just prior to the treatment
pass on the first cloud.
It was considered essential to select pairs of clouds
as similar in development as possible and as close in
time and location as nature would permit. By separat-
ing the data according to region of operations and by
requiring both clouds of any pair to be studied on the
same flight, it was possible to minimize the effects of
temporal, regional, and meteorological variations in
the behavior of clouds. It still remained, however, to
incorporate a scheme to remove any effect of possible
bias on the part of the experimenters. This was made
possible by delegating the responsibilities for selecting
and treating the clouds to two different members of
the flight crew. These crew members were physically
separated in such a way that the one responsible for
selecting the clouds would have no knowledge of
which cloud of the pair was treated. As mentioned
earlier, the clouds were selected by the controller in
the dome. The treatment was carried out from the
aircraft waist and could not be seen or heard by the
controller. The only conceivable way in which the
controller might have known whether or not a cloud
was treated was through the possible effect of the
treatment on the behavior of the airplane. When
treating a cloud with dry ice pellets or with water
JULY 1957 R. R. BRAHAM, JR., L. J.
from the small valve (section 4 i), there was no de-
tectable effect of the treatment on the airplane.
When treating with water from the large valve,
however, the decrease in load on the airplane caused
the plane to rise about 40 ft in 14 sec. The extent to
which this effect was noticeable varied with position
within the airplane and with the amount of free air
turbulence. According to the pilots, the release of the
water was usually evident in the "feel" of the controls.
In the waist position the efflux of water could always
be heard when the water was released in clear air and
sometimes was noticeable when released in clouds.
From the controller's position the change of altitude
was detectable in clear still air, but totally unde-
tectable in cloud or during airplane maneuvers. The
reason for this lay in the natural turbulence found in
the cloud and in the preoccupation of the controller
with other duties. On the basis of all the evidence at
hand, it is the unqualified judgment of the experi-
menters that the controller had no knowledge of the
treatment of a cloud of any pair until the information
was revealed by the meteorological instrument engineer
after the test was completed.
ix. Period and location of operations. The research
reported in this paper had its beginning at the Uni-
versity of Chicago in the spring of 1952. Throughout
1952 work consisted of formulation of detailed plans,
selection of instruments and airplanes suitable for the
flight work, and the recruitment of personnel to
handle the many phases of the program. Almost all
the instrumentation was of special nature and had to
be built in the laboratory and University shops.
Flight crews were trained in the operation and main-
tenance of the special equipment and in the tech-
niques of making specialized observations inside
cumulus clouds.
Installation of equipment in the B-17 and B-26
aircraft was done at Middletown Air Force Depot,
Pennsylvania from March through July 1953. When
completed, the airplanes were flown to Chanute Air
Force Base, Illinois. During August and September,
1953, a total of 23 flights were made, primarily for
the purpose of testing equipment under actual
operating conditions and developing crew techniques
suitable for carrying out the missions.
October 1953 was spent in readying the airplanes
for winter in the Caribbean area. On 29 October the
entire detachment moved to Ramey Air Force Base,
Puerto Rico. From 19 November 1953 through
27 February 1954, a total of 74 flights were made in
trade-wind cumuli. Of these, 57 flights were successful
in obtaining data on cloud treatment or cloud census.
Seven flights were devoted to sampling the atmosphere
for atmospheric sea salt particulates. The other 10
BATTAN, AND H. R. BYERS 57
CLOUD PHYSICS PROJECT
CARIBBEAN 650 600
OPERATIONAL AREA ---------.,·-23°
r-'
1953-54
21°
sEe-m
SEC-JZ:
FIG. 3. Sectors of flight operations in Caribbean area.
flights were unsuccessful for reason of mechanical or
instrument malfunction.
The areas of flight during the Caribbean phase of
the operations are shown in fig. 3. The boundaries of
the operational sectors were largely determined for
reasons of safety of flight and for convenience of
reporting in-flight airplane positions. The time of day
during which clouds were studied varied from about
0800 to 1600 local standard time. No differences in
the number or intensity of the cumulus clouds in the
sectors were noted during this period. Moreover, the
"cloud pair" analysis technique minimizes the effects
of any difference that may have existed.
On 3 May 1954 the Flight Detachment returned
to Chanute Air Force Base and on 18 May 1954
operations were resumed over the continental United
States. For the ensuing four months 79 flights were
conducted in the sectors shown in fig. 4. (For con-
venience the whole region of operations is referred to
as the Central United States.) Usable cloud informa-
tion was obtained on 53 of these flights. During the
summer of 1954, protracted periods of dry cloudless
weather in the eastern two-thirds of the United States
resulted in many fruitless flights.
It was necessary to restrict flight experiments to
off-airways areas. The lettered sectors in fig. 4 were
approved for test flights by the Civil Aeronautics
Authority, Army Flight Service, and Air Defense
Command. The restriction to fly only in these areas
was a severe handicap to flight operations. Some of
58 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS VoL. 2, No. 11

the areas were too small to accommodate a good TABLE 1. Number of pairs of clouds studied
during flight activities.
mission. Not infrequently a cloud under investigation
would drift onto an airway and have to be abandoned Total
Total valid
before the normal complement of measurements Period Location pairs Treatment pairs
could be obtained.
8/53-9/53 Chanute AFB, 4 None
During the latter part of May 1954, results of the Illinois
previous winter work in the Caribbean were reviewed.
11/53-2/54 RameyAFB, 47 Water 32
It was decided to return to Puerto Rico at the end of Puerto Rico (small valve)
the summer work at Chanute Air Force Base and to
18 Water 15
discontinue dry ice studies in the United States. (large valve)
Flights in the Caribbean area were begun on 1
5/54--9/54 Chanute AFB, 19 Water 17
October 1954. A total of 53 flights were flown, 45 of Illinois (large valve)
which successfully obtained scientific data. Flights
37 Dry ice 27
were conducted in the same sectors used in the first
Puerto Rico operations. The full-scale flight program 10/54-11/54 RameyAFB, 47 Water 31
Puerto Rico (large valve)
was terminated on 19 November 1954.
Total 172 122
x. Summary of data obtained. In 43 weeks of actual
flight operations, a total of 231 missions were con-
ducted. On these flights, data were obtained covering shown that efflux from the two different valves
many facets of the cumulus precipitation problem. produced different results.
The fundamental parameter used in cloud treatment Cloud census data were obtained on a total of 17
data was the valid cloud pair. A pair was considered flights in the Caribbean area and on 6 in the United
valid if both clouds met the eligibility requirements States. Sea salt particulate measurements were made
(sections 5 vii, 5 viii), echoes were not observed on on 11 flights in the Caribbean area and on 9 flights
treatment passes, and there were no malfunctions of in the Central United States.
vital scientific equipment. Successful experiments
were conducted for a total of 122 valid pairs distributed 4. Treatment reagents
as shown in table 1.
Both dry ice pellets and water spray were used as
The number of valid pairs of clouds studied in each treatment reagents in the experiments. Dry ice
of the flight sectors in the Caribbean and on the treatment was limited to subcooled cumulus clouds
continent is shown in table 2. The last two columns in Central United States. Water spray treatment was
show numbers of cloud pairs treated from water tanks carried out on cumuli both in Central United States
with two different sizes of dump valves. It will be and in the Caribbean near Puerto Rico.
The reason for using water spray in addition to dry
ice is because both ice-crystal and all-water processes
CLOUD PHYSICS PROJECT
CENTRAL UNITED STATES are used by nature in the production of rain. Over
OPERATIONAL AREA some regions the production of natural precipitation
1953-54 is almost entirely by non-ice processes. For example,
the cloud census measurements (section 5 ii-iii) show
that precipitation develops from one half of the
clouds over the ocean in the Caribbean area, before
they reach a height of 9000 ft. By the time a cloud
TABLE 2. Distribution of valid cloud pairs according to sectors
of operation and method of treatment.

Central United States Caribbean area

KY. Treatment Water treatment
TENN.
Dry Small Large
Sector Water ice Sector valve valve

A 2 7 I 13 24
B 0 0 II 0 5
c 12 20 III 0 0
D 3 0 IV 19 0
E 0 0 v 0 17
FIG. 4. Sectors of flight operations in Central United States.
jULY 1957 R. R. BRAHAM, JR., L. J. BATTAN, AND H. R. BYERS 59

r--
.--
f--

-
f-- ,...__
10 4 10 4

f--
,...__
...
0: 0
...
0: 0

"'z"'
::>
3 A
~ I--
"'::>
"'z
0
~
3 A

. ..
10
~ 10
__, .......
__,
0 0
0: 0:
0 Q

,...__
-~ I--

10 2 10 2

-
-

3 5 7 9 II 13 15
ll
17 19 21
10
0 I 3 5 7 9 II 13 15 17 19
n 21
DROPLET DIAMETER - 100 MICRONS DROPLET DIAMETER- 100 MICRONS

(a) (b)

FIG.5. Number and size distribution of droplets dispensed per centimeter of flight path with water treatment equipment. Number of
droplets counted in 0-1 OOJL classes are probably an order of magnitude less than actually dispensed. (a) Small valve; (b) Large valve.

grows to 12,000 ft precipitation is almost inevitable.
The melting level ranges between 13,500 and 16,900
ft. To treat with dry ice or silver iodide smokes for
the purpose of inducing the precipitation process in
these clouds would be a waste of effort. In the Central
United States there are many cumulus clouds which
appear to be amenable to either ice or water treatment.
i. Water spray treatment. Water spray treatment was
accomplished by opening a valve in the bottom of a
400 gal water tank in the bomb bay, allowing the
water to fall in a stream through a chute in the bomb
bay door. The tank used was a regular bomb bay
gasoline tank which was modified by removing most
of the internal baffling and installing a dump valve
in the bottom.
(a) Small valve. Two different valve sizes were
used during the course of the experiment. The original
installation consisted of a valve of circular opening
4 in. in diameter. The valve, known as the small
valve because of a subsequent change in valve size,
was solenoid operated from a switch located on the
meteorological instrument engineer's control panel.
Ground and flight tests showed that approximately
70 sec were required to empty the 400 gal of water
through this valve. At an airplane speed of approxi-
mately 160 kt, this resulted in a treatment rate of
approximately 130 gal per mi. This rate of treatment
is larger than appears to have been used by other
experimenters. Langmuir [31] suggested that a gallon
or two of water released in a balloon attached by a
100ft string to the seeding airplane would be sufficient
to treat a cumulus cloud. Coons et al. [13] conducted
cumulus treatment studies using 1 gal per mi and 50
gal per mi. Bowen [6] treated cumulus clouds using
approximately 11 gal per mi. The Cloud Physics
Project treating rate was selected as one easy to
obtain with a simple valve assembly and one which
should have demonstrable effects as judged from the
reports of other investigators.
In water treatment studies the amount of water
released is not the only important parameter. The
important variables are the number and size of the
droplets produced when the water column is broken
by the slip stream. Langmuir's suggested treatment
of a gallon of water was based upon the judgment
that a very few large drops of water would be sufficient
to initiate rain through the "chain reaction" mech-
anism. Langmuir did not speculate on the size of
the drops produced by this method. He suggested
however, that drops produced by direct spray into
the airstream would be too small to be effective.
Coons et al. used two different methods to produce
water drops. One method consisted of releasing water
directly to the airstream through a 2 in. diameter
60 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS
valve. The other method consisted of spraying water
from a spray-bar manifold of small orifices. Coons
suggested that the droplets from the spray-bar were
approximately 0.5 mm diameter whereas the drops
from the valve dissemination were estimated to be
somewhat larger. Bowen used a spray-bar arrange-
ment that was stated to produce a wide range of
droplet sizes having a median value of about 50JL.
Aside from these broad generalizations, the sizes and
size distributions of the treatment droplets used in
these previous experiments apparently are unknown.
The number and size distribution of droplets from
the Cloud Physics Project water drop using the small
valve are shown in fig. Sa. These data were deter-
mined through a series of drop tests over a spatial
array of dye impregnated papers laid out on the run-
way at Chanute Air Force Base. Filter papers, 20 in.
pquare, were coated with methylene blue dye and
laid out in a series of three lines, approximately 1000
ft apart, normal to the active runway. The airplane
then flew at an altitude of approximately 30 ft over
the papers and released the water. The resulting
spots on the filter paper were counted as a function
of size. The relationship between drop size and spot
size was determined in the laboratory. This technique
FIG. 6. Photograph of plume of water droplets emerging from large valve of B-17 water tank.
VoL. 2, No. 11
is not suitable for droplets below approximately 80,u
diameter. The number of droplets in sizes less than
this value can only be estimated from mass considera-
tions.
(b) Large valve. After treating approximately 25
pairs of cumuli in the vicinity of Puerto Rico with
water from the 4 in. valve, it became evident that
this treatment had little, if any, effect in producing
precipitation. It was therefore decided to enlarge the
size of the valve opening to increase the amount of
water and hence the number of effective drops re-
leased in the cloud. The second valve consisted of a
trap door approximately 10 in. square which was
fastened to the bottom of the bomb bay tank. This
valve was released by a solenoid controlled by the
meteorological instrument engineer.
Increasing the outlet area of the valve reduced the
total drop time to approximately 18 sec. This cor-
responded to a treatment rate of about 450 gal per
mi-a rate much greater than that used by any other
known experimenter. The droplet sizes and size
distribution were checked by use of the dyed paper
technique and the results are shown in fig. Sb. Fig-
ure 6 is a photograph of the plume of water droplets
emerging from the large valve. As with the small
jULY 1957 R. R. BRAHAM, JR., L. J. HATTAN, AND H. R. BYERS 61

valve, the appearance of the plume suggests that the TABLE 3. Size distribution of dry ice pellets used for
major part of the breakup occurred in the first few cloud treatment tests.
feet of fall. It was determined experimentally that Dispersal rate of 17 lb per mi
the spray in itself did not produce a radar echo.
(c) Lateral spread of droplet spray. Very little is Diameter-inches ~-~ ~-~ ~
Per cent of total 39 13 44
known about the lateral spread of the spray after it
leaves the airplane, although during Project operations Dispersal rate of 50 lb per mi

several attempts were made to measure this effect.
On one large-valve test the wind was very close to
normal to the line of papers and parallel to the path
of the airplane. On this test the airplane altitude was
50 ft and the droplets were distributed over a width
of 120 ft. It was estimated that on this test over 90
per cent of the water was confined to a width of 50 ft.
Photographs of the visible plume suggest a somewhat
smaller value for the lateral spread. Presumably the
difference is due to the fact that some of the water
lies beyond the limits of the visible plume.
(d) Level of treatment. Most of the water treatment
was performed at an altitude such that there were
several thousand feet of cloud below the treatment
airplane. In the case of trade wind cumuli near
Puerto Rico, treatment altitude ranged from 5000 to
7000 ft in clouds having bases at approximately 2000
ft and tops ranging from 6000 to 10,000 ft. In the
Central United States cloud bases and tops were both
higher. On clouds treated with water the bases
ranged approximately from 5000 to 8000 ft and
estimated tops ranged approximately from 12,000 to
20,000 ft. In these clouds the water release was made
from an altitude of 10,500 to 15,000 ft.
The decision to treat with water well above the
bases of the cumulus clouds is in contrast with the
method proposed by Bowen [6]. In the description
of the Australian flights, Bowen suggested that water
treatment should be performed near the base of the
cloud in order to let the droplets rise with the updraft
inside the cloud and grow by accretion. In principle,
this suggestion is perfectly sound, but it requires
substantial numbers of the treatment droplets to be
of small enough size to be carried upward in the cloud
by the draft and yet be sufficiently large to have high
collision efficiencies.
The updrafts inside a typical trade wind cumulus
are known to be small, averaging a few meters per
second. Knowing the drop size spectrum from the
small valve before starting the water treatment flights,
it was believed that the greatest probability of
initiating precipitation would result from treating the
Diameter-inches ~ ~-% %-~ ~-~ ~-716 716
Per cent of total 2 6 28 17 7 40
ii. Dry ice treatment. During the summer of 1954,
cumulus clouds in the Central United States were
treated with dry ice pellets. The pellets were dispensed
directly from a dry ice crusher mounted in the waist
section of the airplane.
(a) Rate of treatment. During the research two
different treatment rates were used. For the first part
of the studies, a rate of approximately 17 lb per mi
was used. This was obtained by feeding 2 in. cubes of
dry ice directly to the hopper of the crusher. Because
of the turbulent conditions within cumulus clouds, it
was not always possible for the meteorological instru-
ment engineer to feed the crusher continuously;
hence, the value of 17 lb per mi should be considered
the upper limit of the actual treatment rate for this
portion of the flight program.
For the second part of the dry ice program, the rate
of treatment was increased to approximately 50 lb
per mi. This was accomplished by pre-crushing the
ice on the ground before take-off and feeding it
directly to the crusher for dispersal. In general, this
procedure was more satisfactory for testing purposes
than that of crushing the ice aloft since the operator
was able to dispense the ice at a fairly constant rate.
The size distribution of the dry ice pellets charac-
terizing each of these treatment rates is given in
table 3.
The rates of treatment used are roughly midway
in the range of rates reported for successful precipita-
tion inducement by various investigators. Kraus and
Squires [27], Leopold (reported by Langmuir [29]),
Squires and Smith [56], and Bowen [7] reported
successful precipitation inducement using several
hundred pounds of dry ice in a single cloud turret.
TABLE 4. Effective dry ice treatment rate assuming no updraft
or downdraft in cloud (lb per mi).
Depth of subcooled cloud below
treating level (ft)

cloud well above the base thus ensuring a relatively 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

long trajectory through cloud air for all treating drops Dispersal rate of
regardless of initial size. This procedure was continued 17 lb per mi 9 12 13 14 15
Dispersal rate of
after changing to the large valve, both in Puerto Rico 50 lb per mi 26 28 29 30 31
and in the Central United States.
62 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS
On the other hand, many of the experiments of
Project Cirrus [30] and the 1949 Weather Bureau
tests [13] involved only a few pounds of dry ice per
mile of traverse.
In order to study the relative effectiveness of the
two treatment rates, a simple computation was made
of the evaporation of the ice pellets during their fall
through successive thousand-foot intervals. These
computations were based upon the evaporation studies
of Langmuir [33], later verified by Squires and Smith
[56]. The results of• this study are presented in table
4. Although these computations cannot be considered
entirely accurate, they give a good estimate of the
effective treatment rate.
(b) Level of treatment. To be eligible for dry ice
treatment a cloud had to extend at least to the - 2C
level. The level of treatment varied from a few
hundred feet to several thousand feet above the
melting level (fig. 16 section 5). The mean tempera-
ture at the treatment level was approximately - 3C
and the average cloud top temperature at the time
of treatment was - 9C. On the average, about 2000
ft of subcooled cloud was below the airplane at the
time of treatment. This means that the effective
treatment rate averaged about 12 lb per mi until the
ice-dispensing procedure was changed. Thereafter it
averaged about 28 lb per mi.
The procedure of treating the middle of a tall
cumulus cloud at a few thousand feet above the
melting level, differs from the method used by the
Australian group [56]. They usually flew over the top
of the cloud that they were treating. Whether or not
this difference is important is not known. In view of
the requirement that a cloud should appear to be
building to be eligible for treatment, it can be pre-
sumed that an updraft carried the ice crystals to
higher levels in the cloud than those at which they
were released. Treating a cloud only a few thousand
feet above the melting level has the distinct advantage
that the latent heat of fusion is released deep inside
the cloud where it should have the maximum effective-
ness to promote further cloud development.
5. Analysis
The analysis work carried on by the Cloud Physics
Project was directed towards obtaining a better
understanding of the natural precipitation processes
and the effects produced on these processes by arti-
ficial nucleating agents. The analysis was conducted
by considering the characteristics of clouds en-
countered by the project, studying cloud census data,
determining radar response from tropical cloud forms,
and investigating special properties of convective
clouds related to problems of cloud modification.
VoL. 2, No. 11
i. General characteristics of clouds studied. The char-
acter of clouds selected for study was determined by
the cloud eligibility criteria. The requirement that the
clouds must not contain precipitation prior to the
beginning of treatment meant that the clouds were of
an intermediate size, i.e., large enough to have a
significant probability of precipitation yet not so
large that rain seemed inevitable.
(a) Cumuli of the Caribbean area. The clouds stud-
ied in the Caribbean area were grouped into the
classification of trade wind cumuli [40]. In their origin
and growth they are influenced by a thermally stable
layer in the atmosphere that is characterized by a
rapid decrease of moisture with height. In the Puerto
Rico area this layer usually is described as a remnant
of the trade wind inversion. This classification differs
only in detail from that used by Riehl [48] in de-
scribing the cumuli of the trade wind regions. Whereas
Riehl differentiates between trade cumulus, chimney
clouds, and cumulus congestus on the basis of shape,
size and the development of precipitation, this was
not considered necessary for project analysis. The
clouds studied frequently had characteristics that
were only imperceptibly different, one from the other.
As a class, however, the cumuli of the trade winds
near Puerto Rico have many distinctive features.
These cumuli, of which fig. 7 shows representative
examples, were nearly always numerous in the area.
Typically the cumuli occur in bands or zones inter-
spersed with cloudless areas or regions where the
clouds are only a few hundred feet thick. On some days
the clouds were aligned in bands separated by cloud-
less areas a few tens of miles wide. More frequently
the clear areas were irregular in outline and surrounded
by a ring of cumulus clouds. Typical linear dimensions
of the cloud-free areas were 30 to SO mi. The dynamics
of the atmosphere which cause the grouping of clouds
into definite regions are poorly understood. This con-
dition, however, has been seen to be typical of con-
vective cloud regimes over land as well as over oceans.
A pronounced tilt from the vertical was observed
in many of the clouds. The shelf-like extension near
the top of the cloud in fig. 7a, due to vertical wind
shear, was a common but not universal feature of the
trade cumuli. During the operations in the Caribbean
area, it was observed that the wind speed usually
decreased with height in the cloud layers, producing
a condition in which the bases of the clouds were
carried out from under the cloud tops. It was oc-
casionally observed that the shelf-like extensions from
the tops of many clouds of approximately the same
height would merge to form what resembled a layer
of stratocumulus through which a few taller cumuli
would protrude.
JULY 1957 R. R. BRAHAM, JR . , L . J. BATTAN, AND H. R . BYERS 63

(a) (d)

(b)

(c) (f)

FrG. 7. Photographs of tropical cumuli over the ocean. All cloud bases ~2000 ft altitude. a) Cloud top height measured 10,200 ft;
precipitation echo extended to 8700 ft. Photogra ph taken at 6000 ft 4 Nov. 1954. b) Cloud top height measured 8500 ft; no echo.
Photogra ph taken a t 6000 ft 17 Nov. 1954. c) Cloud top height measured 7400 ft; no echo. Photograph taken at 6000 ft 19 Nov. 1954.
d) Cloud top height estima ted 8000 ft; no echo. Photograph ta ken at 5500 ft 11 Nov. 1954. e) Cloud top height measured 8800 ft;
no echo. Photograph taken at 6000 ft 17 Nov. 1954. f) Shower falling from tropical cumulus.

The most t y pical characteristic of tropical cumuli
was the uniformity of the heights of the cloud bases
which ra nged from about 1500 to 2500 ft. Although
cloud tops ra nged from a few hundred feet above t he
bases to more than 15,000 ft msl, most of the clouds
studied had tops between 7000 and 9000 a bove sea
level. Smaller clouds had diameters somewhat smaller
than the thicknesses. A cloud with a thickness of
5000 ft would usually have a diameter of 2000 to
4000 ft. Diameters of the larger clouds were more
nearly equal t o the thicknesses.
T he most notable feature of the trade cumuli was
their a bility to produce rain when only a few thousand
feet thick. This was clearly brought out by t he cloud
64 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS VoL. 2, No. 11

census measurements (section 5 ii). A very fine rain
or drizzle was commonly observed to develop from
cloud shelves and from fragments of clouds which had
become detached from the ma in cloud mass. The
precipitation particles in such rain areas were small
in size. On the basis of repeated measurements with
the cloud sampler and from observations of the
droplets hitting the dome of the aircraft, it was
estimated that they were no larger than a few hundred
microns in diameter. In addition to the precipitation
from shelves and isolated fragments, it was some-
times observed that precipitation would develop along
the sides of the m ain parts of the clouds. On such an
occasion a rainbow was observed on the side of the
cloud and careful observations would reveal the
darkened, irregular spot on the sea that characterized
an area where a rain column struck the sea surface.
The effect of the island of Puerto Rico on the
location of t rade wind cumuli was very not iceable.
As had been pointed out by Malkus [40], the island

(a)

(b) (e)

(c) (f)

FIG. 8. P hotographs of cumulus congestus clouds over Centra l United States. a) Cloud top heigh t est imated 16,500 ft ; precipitation
echo extended to 9900 ft. P hotogra ph taken at 10,700 ft 18 J u ne 1954. b) Cloud t op height est imated 22,000 ft; no echo. Photograph
taken a t 17,000 ft 29 J une 1954. c) Cloud top height measured 21,000 ft; no echo. Photograph ta ken at 16,700 ft 28 J une 1954. d)
Cloud top heigh t measured 20,000 ft ; precipitation echo extended to 15,000 ft . Photogra ph ta ken at 10,200 ft 30 June 1954. e) Cloud
top height estimated 15,500 ft ; no echo. Photograph taken a t 12,200 ft 28 June 1954. f ) Clo ud top height estimated 18,000 ft ; no
echo. P hotogra ph taken at 16,500 ft 8 Sept. 1954.
jULY 1957 R. R. BRAHAM, JR., L. J. BATTAN, AND H. R. BYERS 65

100 20 ment. During much of the summer of 1954, the

t. . . . . . . . .
r-
Ul
~ 90 ~ 15 weather of the Central United States was dominated
:I:
~ 80 p~10 - by a large tropospheric anticyclone stagnant over
....
0::
~r-
Alabama and Mississippi. As a result the cumuli had
~ 70 ~ 5
w
iii
Ul
60 .... 0 abnormally high cloud bases and were less well
0
5J 50 r- developed than is common for these regions in summer.
t--
~ 40 With a few exceptions, the clouds selected for study
0
.... 30
had bases between 5000 and 10,000 ft.
C> NUMBER OF CLOUDS IN EACH GR9!/E r -
~ 20 10 19 53 51 57 62 55 39 47 35 22 19 6 20
Some of the common characteristics of the clouds
....z studied in the Central United States are shown in
~
~ 10
....
0. 0
fig. 8. Contrasted with the Caribbean area clouds,
5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 11500 + these are larger, faster growing, more turbulent, less
CLOUD TOP HEIGHT IN FEET likely to develop shelves and whispy blow-offs and
FrG. 9. Per cent of over water tropical cumuli with precipita- far less likely to develop precipitation naturally. In
tion echoes as a function of cloud top height and temperature. common with the cumuli over the ocean, these clouds
Numbers within body of the diagram represent total number of
clouds examined in each height interval. (After Byers and Hall tend to develop in preferred areas leaving large regions
[12].) of the sky relatively cloud free. In most instances the
clouds used in treatment studies were adjacent to or
acts to inhibit the formation of cumuli for a consider- part of a larger group of clouds, some of which were
able distance over the water away from the coast, precipitating naturally.
especially to leeward. On flights into Sector I it was The cloud census measurements revealed that the
found that, almost without exception, there existed a number of cumuli was small that developed precipita-
cloud-free zone 30 to 50 mi wide off the southwestern tion naturally below 20,000 ft. In those which did
part of the island. No such cloud-free zone was found develop echoes it appeared that both the ice crystal and
to the north of the island although it did appear that the all-water coalescence processes could have been
during the daytime the clouds close to the island operative.
were less well developed than were those farther out ii. Cloud census in the Caribbean area. In any research
to sea. dealing with cloud modification it is essential to know
During the period of operations from Ramey Air the natural behavior of the clouds to be modified.
Force Base, it was only during mid-October 1954 that Although this knowledge can take a variety of forms,
it was not possible to find clouds suitable for nucleation one of the simplest considerations is that of the
studies. During that period hurricane Hazel slowly probability of rain from clouds as a function of cloud
passed about 400 mi south of the island and a layer of top height. In order to obtain information of this type,
altostratus clouds covered all flight sectors. The it is necessary to examine many clouds, i.e., to take a
presence of the cloud cover was not particularly census of the clouds. On the Cloud Physics Project,

;,i . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
effective in stopping cumulus activity, but a fine
drizzle from the middle cloud very effectively treated 100 20
most of the cumuli in the area. Although these cumuli Ul
~ 90
were suitable for other kinds of studies, and several :I:
~;lao l;t1o
of them were investigated, data taken from them a:
i= 70 lt 5
were not acceptable for artificial nucleation studies. j :::;:
Ul 60 ~ 0
(b) Cumuli of the Central United States. In contrast 0 r-
to the cumuli of the Caribbean area which were of 5..J 50
0
... 40
.---
reasonably uniform size and physical characteristics, 0
w 30 .--- -
the clouds studied in the Central United States C> r-
~ 20
NUMBER OF CLOUDS t--r--
covered the spectrum from small fair weather cumuli

n-
z IN EACH GROUP 3 23 38 48 21 22 7 9 7 3 2 9
r--
to thunderstorms. The wide range in cloud sizes was ~ 10

due in part to the greater natural diversity of cumulus lt 0

I I
5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 tOOOO 11000 12000+
cloud forms common to the continental region and in CLOUD TOP HEIGHT IN FEET
part to the fact that greater freedom in cloud selection
was possible because precipitation at low cloud FrG. 10. Per cent of cumuli over Puerto Rico with precipitation
echoes as a function of cloud top height and temperature. Nine
heights was uncommon. Also a greater diversity was clouds having top heights greater than 12,000 ft were distributed
prescribed by the advantage taken of the existence of as follows: without echo-12,000; 12,300; 12,500; 13,000 and
13,000 ft; with echo-12,000; 13,000; 14,000 and 15,000 ft.
both ice clouds and "warm" clouds suitable for treat- (After Byers and Hall [12].)
66 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS VoL. 2, No. 11

measurements were made of the tops of cumulus precipitation development over the height interval
clouds with an airplane, while the presence of precipi- considered. This result may be an effect of the small
tation was observed using the nose radar of another sample size.
airplane which flew through or along the side of In the Caribbean area, the zero-degree isotherm
the cloud. was generally located in the vicinity of 15,000 ft.
Cloud census data were collected over the ocean and A consideration of fig. 9 reveals that by the time a
over the island of Puerto Rico during two periods tropical cumulus over the ocean has grown to 11,500
between November 1953 and November 1954. The ft, it will contain a precipitation echo. Therefore, it
data from 15 out of 17 such missions, involving 495 may be concluded that in these clouds, precipitation
and 192 clouds over the water and land, respectively, is always initiated by an all-water process. Such an
were analyzed. Results of this analysis have been inclusive statement, although believed to be true,
described by Byers and Hall [12]. The main features cannot be made categorical regarding the clouds
of the data are given in fig. 9 and 10. It can be seen over the island of Puerto Rico, fig. 10. It can be seen,
that over the ocean no cloud with a top at less than however, that precipitation was formed in some clouds
6000 ft contained an echo, whereas all clouds extend- with tops between 7000 and 12,000 ft. At least in
ing over 11,500 ft had precipitation echoes within these clouds ice crystals could have played no part
them. The fraction of clouds with precipitation in- in the precipitation formation process.
creased fairly regularly with increasing cloud height. From theoretical considerations, it is expected that
The clouds observed over the island did not exhibit the formation of precipitation depends on character-
a systematic relationship between vertical extent and istics of the clouds other than their vertical extent.

+
13

+
12 +
+
+
...,.: II
~

0
0
0 +
+ +
+
...
+
~10 ~ +
+
Q.
0 + + + __.
.... 9 +! 0
+ + + +
0
::::) + t; *+
0
0
0 t 0
+
....J
0 +
0 0 ++ ++
0
0
....
0
8 0 0 ++
+ + +
0 0
~
(!) 0 0 80 0 ~ 0
+
0 0 0 0 + 0 +
LLJ OClf?
~ 7 0 0
0 oooocoCf/
0 0 0
+ 0
0 ~ 00 80 0000 + + +
0 + 0
6 0
0
0
0
0
5

48 SEC

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 II 12 1000 FT
CLOUD DIAMETER

FIG. 11. The existence ( +) or non-existence ( 0) of a precipitation echo as a function of cloud top height and cloud width.
All clouds were tropical cumuli over the ocean.
jULY 1957 R. R. BRAHAM, JR., L. J. BATTAN, AND H. R. BYERS 67

by the tops of the continental cumuli prevented the

collection of the type and quantity of data obtained
in the Caribbean. In most cases, it was necessary for
50 r-
the flight crew to estimate the heights of cloud tops.
"(VV' In many instances, the flight altitude was within 3000
1- ft of the cloud top, hence the estimates were adjudged
not too much in error. The values given for the larger
(/)
w 40 1- r-- clouds could be in error by 3000-5000 ft or more.
0 Experience gained on missions when the B-26 was
:I:
(..)
- r---
available indicates that these errors are most likely
w underestimated.
30 1- r--
:I: A summary of the data analyzed is presented in
t- r---
fig. 12 and 13. It can be seen that there is a general
f-
3: increase of probability of precipitation with increasing
t- 20 1- cloud top altitude and decreasing cloud top tempera-
z 1---
w ture. To a certain extent, the irregularities are a
(..)
1- result of small sample size. They may also be partly
t----
a:: attributable to the fact that the heights of the cloud
w 10 1- 1---
a.. bases were highly variable from one day to the next.
15 38 45 54 33 15 5 4 Braham, Reynolds and Harrell [9] have shown that
1-
cumulus clouds in New Mexico do not produce
precipitation echoes until the cloud top temperature
12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 -OVER falls below -12C. The measurements of the Cloud
CLOUD TOP HEIGHT - 1000 FT Physics Project which are given in fig. 13 show that
FIG. 12. Per cent of cumuli with precipitation echoes as a function one cloud with a temperature as high as +4.1C had
of cloud top height over the Central United States. an echo and that 21 per cent of the clouds in the tem-
perature interval +6 to -12C contained precipitation
In particular, such factors as (1) the size distribution
echoes. There are several possible explanations for
of the condensation nuclei, (2) the height of the cloud
the observed differences. Considerations of the radar
base, (3) the strength of the updraft, and (4) the
liquid water content should be related to the produc-
tion of precipitation. Over the ocean, factors (1) and
(2) are probably fairly constant. The strength of the
updraft within a cloud should be positively related to
the cloud top height. The maximum liquid water in 50 ~ r--
a convective cloud should be related to the horizontal
width of the cloud, because horizontal mixing and
(/)
subsequent drying would be less effective in clouds r---
~ 40
of large diameters than in those of small diameters. :I:
0
In some of the cases used to compile fig. 9, the ILl
;---

n
diameter of the cloud was measured as the airplane
~ 30
flew through it. These measurements are presented in
3::
fig. 11. This diagram shows that, although a great
deal of scatter exists, the width of the cloud is related
1- -
~ 20
to the likelihood of precipitation formation. In fact, 0
some of the tallest clouds which did not have echoes a:
ILl
are seen to be quite narrow and, thus, probably had Q. t---
10
relatively low liquid water content. ;---

iii. Cloud census in Central United States. During the 4 2 5 17 31 34 53 34 ~ II 2

summer of 1954, data were obtained on the presence
of precipitation echoes in convective clouds of various $-21 -18 -15 -12 -9 -6 -3 0 3 6
sizes found over Central United States. Unfortunately, CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE °C
the infrequency of suitable clouds, the unavailability
FIG. 13. Per cent of cumuli with precipitation echoes as a function
of the B-26 aircraft, and the higher altitudes reached of cloud top temperature over the Central United States.
68 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS VoL. 2, No. 11

sensitivities and the distances between the radar sets TABLE 6. Distribution of altitudes for water-cloud tops in the
Caribbean area. Cloud pairs treated or not by water
and the clouds indicate that the Cloud Physics from aircraft using small dispensing valve.
Project radar unit would detect precipitation in
smaller clouds than would the unit used in New Altitude of cloud top
(100's of ft, mean sea level) Mean
Mexico. In view of the findings of Battan [3] using altitude
50-- 60- 70-- 80- 90- 100- (100's of
ground radar equipment in southwestern Ohio, it is 59 69 79 89 99 109 Total ft msl)
felt that the differences of radar sensitivity cannot
Treated 3 9 6 1 19 78
entirely explain the results cited above. Accordingly, Untreated 11 10 2 3 27 73
it is concluded that the observed temperature differ-
ences are an indication that the precipitation mech- satisfy the conditions for the production of precipita-
anism in New Mexico cumuli is different from that tion by an all-water process, it still has the opportunity
in eastern cumuli or that the same processes occur in of producing rain by the Bergeron process if it grows
both regions under significantly different meteoro- to great enough heights.
logical conditions.
iv. Initiation of precipitation in tropical cumuli. If the
Cumulus clouds in New Mexico generally have
cloud census data discussed in the preceding section
bases in the vicinity of 12,000 ft above sea level while
had been available, it would have been possible at the
those in Central and Eastern United States have
beginning of operations to specify with good precision
bases in the vicinity of 6000 ft above sea level. Since
the type of cloud which would have been suitable for
the melting level in both regions is located at about
treatment. However, at that time little was known of
15,000 ft, a cloud of given thickness will have a
the relationship between precipitation likelihood and
considerably colder top if it is located over New
cloud top height. As a consequence, the flight con-
Mexico than if it is over Central United States. If the
trollers selected large trade wind cumuli which, in
same process produced precipitation in similar clouds
their estimation, had some probability of precipita-
in both regions, the temperature of the cloud tops at
tion. Tables 5 and 6 show the distribution of the
the time of the initial echo would be lower in the
heights of those clouds actually used in the cloud
clouds over New Mexico. Therefore, on the basis of
treatment studies for which accurate height data are
cloud top temperature alone, it cannot be concluded
available. From a comparison of these data with those
that the rain formation processes in the two regions
in fig. 9, it can be seen that the cloud heights fall in
are different. Also, if the contention is accepted that
the region of small but positive chance of natural
precipitation can be formed through an all-water
rain formation.
process in Central United States, then it is reasonable
During the period October 1953 to February 1954
to expect the same process to be effective in New
when the aircraft was equipped with the small water-
Mexico.
dispensing valve, 32 valid pairs of clouds were studied
On the basis of radar measurements taken by the for radar echoes. The results are shown in table 7.
Thunderstorm Project, Reynolds and Braham [47] Each unit in the table represents a pair of clouds.
and Battan [3] concluded that precipitation in cumuli For example, the number 4 in this table represents
in southwestern Ohio is frequently formed through four pairs of clouds in each of which the untreated
a process not requiring ice crystal growth. The cloud cloud produced an echo and the treated cloud did not.
census data are compatible with this conclusion be- In the initial analysis, only the data in the lower left
cause, in many cases, the echoes formed below the and upper right entries were considered. The numbers
airplane and in the part of the cloud with temperatures in the other diagonal represent those cases in which
above OC. On the other hand, these data do not each cloud of a pair responded in the same way to
dictate the acceptance or rejection of the Bergeron radar probing as the other. These data thus do not
mechanism. If a building cumulus cloud does not
TABLE 7. Contingency table for radar .echoes from tropical
TABLE 5. Distribution of altitudes for water-cloud tops in the cumuli. Clouds treated or not w1th water from
Caribbean area. Cloud pairs treated or not by water aircraft using small valve.
from aircraft using large dispensing valve.
Treated cloud of pair
Altitude of doud top No
(100's of ft. mean sea level) Mean Echo echo Total
altitude
50-- 60-- 70- 80- 90- 100-- (100's of
59 69 79 89 99 109 Total ft msl) Untreated cloud Echo 3 4 7
of pair No echo 3 22 25
Treated 6 12 18 5 2 44 81
Untreated 5 17 15 s 2 44 81 Total 6 26 32
JULY 1957 R. R. BRAHAM, JR., L. J. BATTAN, AND H. R. BYERS 69

contribute to a test of the hypothesis that treatment basis, it must be concluded from table 8 (c) that the
makes no difference to the average number of echoes null hypothesis is false and that treated clouds had a
produced in water-clouds. higher probability of precipitation than untreated
From table 7 it may be seen that three pairs of clouds. The probability of 0.017 given by the com-
treated clouds developed an echo whereas the un- posite table must be viewed with some caution, be-
treated developed none; in four pairs, however, the cause it was calculated on the assumption that the
reverse was true. Hence, no conclusions can be drawn total sample size would be decided in advance, or at
regarding the efficacy of treatment. As a matter of least decided on issues totally independent of what the
fact, the scientists recording the data realized this and initial results happened to be, whereas in fact this was
suspected that the reason was connected with the not the case. It was decided to return to the Caribbean
small amount of water being released into the cloud. area after the data in table 8 (a) were obtained.
As a result, a larger dump valve was installed and It must be emphasized that the data from table 8
used for the remainder of the operations. The results reveal nothing about intensity or total amounts of
of precipitation initiation tests using the large valve rainfall reaching the ground. They pertain only to the
are presented in tables 8a-c. initial formation of an echo. These data also do not
The experimental procedure and the types of clouds show the magnitude of the difference of the probability
selected were the same during both seasons of opera- of precipitation initiation in treated and untreated
tion. The probabilities of obtaining the results by clouds. Some idea of this important factor can be
chance that are distributed along the lower left to obtained from another type of analysis. From the
upper right diagonals of table 8, or of obtaining results groups of treated and untreated clouds one can calcu-
more unusual than these, are 0.11, 0.072 and 0.017 for late the proportion of each group that developed a
the three sections (a)-(c) of the table. These prob- precipitation echo. These proportions are estimates of
abilities were calculated under the null hypothesis that the true average probabilities of echo.
seeding had no effect. In designing the experiment it These average probabilities must be interpreted
had been decided that, in problems of this type, 0.05 properly. Suppose that the probabilities of echo on a
would be an acceptable significance level. On this single flight, using the small valve and choosing
clouds at random among those in a given cloud top
TABLE 8. Contingency tables for radar echoes from tropical height and temperature range, are P. (no treatment)
cumuli. Clouds treated or not with water from and P'. (treatment). Then P. and P'. are random
aircraft using large valve.
correlated variables since the probabilities of echo
(a) January-February 1954 vary from flight to flight because of the many un-
controllable and unobservable factors. The average
Treated cloud of pair
values of P. and P'. taken over all possible flights
Echo
No
echo Total may be called Ps and p' •. If p'. - Ps > 0, then small
valve treatment has a positive effect. If p'. - p. is
Untreated cloud Echo 3 1 4
of pair No echo 5 6 11 considerably larger than zero, the positive effect of
small valve treatment is large. Analogously, the
Total 8 7 15
quantities PL and p' L may be considered for large
(b) October-November 1954 valve treatments.
Estimates of the values of p and p' may be obtained
Treated cloud of pair
directly from the observed proportions of echoes.
No
Echo echo Total Using standard procedures one may also compute 95
2 5 7
and 99 per cent confidence intervals for p., p'.,pL, and
Untreated cloud Echo
of pair No echo 12 12 24 p' L; these are given in fig. 14. *The confidence intervals
14 17 31
for p and p'. overlap to a large extent, exhibiting con-
Total
sistency with the earlier (and more valid) 2 X 2
(c) All nata contingency table analysis. The 95 per cent confidence
Treated cloud of pair intervals for p and p' L scarcely overlap at all, and
No
this is again consistent with the earlier analysis.
Echo echo Total
* In the analysis of the data, untreated clouds of large valve
Untreated cloud Echo 5 6 11 and small valve cloud pairs have been combined. The similarity
of pair No echo 17 18 35 between the types of clouds involved in the two sets of data
make this possible. The proportions of untreated clouds which
Total 22 24 46 produced echoes were 0.23 and 0.22 in the large valve and small
valve samples, respectively.
70 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS VoL. 2, No. 11

r+----~------------~~
Treated-Small valve- p'
s
0'>

1-+----------<l----------t----i T reo ted - Lorge vo Ive- p'

r<l 0'> L
<D U)

Untreated - p
N'<t r<l
N

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
PROBABILITY OF ECHO

FIG. 14. Observed proportion of treated and untreated clouds with echoes (circles) and the 95 and
99 per cent confidence intervals of expected proportions (vertical dashes-outer dashes represent
99 per cent limits).

Approximate calculations were also made of con- where r is droplet radius, k is the coefficient of diffusion
fidence limits for p' L - PL, the differential effect of of water vapor in air, Ae is the difference of vapor
large valve treatment. These calculations were based pressure of the air and the water surface, C is a
only on valid cloud pairs treated with the large dis- constant, p is the density of water, VV is the liquid
pensing valve. At the 95 per cent level the confidence water content, E is the collection efficiency, and v
interval for p' L - PL is 0.04 to 0.44. This may be is the velocity of the droplet under consideration
interpreted as showing that large valve treatment relative to the other cloud droplets.
quite clearly increases the average probability of The first term of equation (1) gives the rate of
precipitation from 4 to 44 per cent. growth by condensation and is important for small
Another aspect of the effect on tropical clouds by drop sizes. However, as the droplets become larger,
water treatment from the large dispensing valve is the second term becomes of increasing importance
shown in table 9. These data indicate that per cent until the first term can be completely neglected for
of treated clouds which developed echoes was ap- droplet diameters of the order of 50,u. It has been
proximately the same for all cloud thicknesses. The visualized (Langmuir [29]; Mason and Ludlum [41])
three cases of echo occurrence in treated clouds in the that after droplets have grown by coalescence to very
4000-4999 ft interval were all cases in which the large sizes, they break into many smaller droplets.
depth of cloud below the airplane was about 4000 ft. Each of these in turn will grow by coalescence to
v. Time for formation of echo in tropical cumuli. It break-up size in a fashion described by Langmuir as
has been suggested that artificial nucleation of a a "chain reaction."
cloud can result in changing the time of precipitation In the explanation of precipitation from tropical
initiation. From a theoretical point of view this ap- cumulus clouds these arguments appear reasonable.
pears to be a reasonable proposition. It has been Thus, if a cloud does not already contain droplets
shown by Bowen [5], Houghton [25], Mason and large enough to permit growth by the second term of
Ludlum [41], and others that the growth of a water equation (1), the introduction into the cloud of drop-
drop in a cloud is described by: lets of the order of 100.u or greater would result very
shortly in production of large raindrops through the
dr CkAe vVVE collision and coalescence of these drops with the
-
dt
=rp- + 4-' (1)
smaller cloud droplets. Therefore, an acceleration of
the rain formation mechanism would be expected.
TABLE 9. Effect of large valve treatment on tropical cumuli The time between the release of the water into the
as a function of cloud depth below treatment level.
(Cloud base height assumed 2000 ft) cloud and the appearance of an echo is tabulated in
table 10. There were several limitations imposed upon
Number of clouds the compilation of these data. The clouds were con-
Cloud
Untreated Treated Per cent clouds with echoes tinuously observed but were examined for echoes only
thickness
(IOO's of ft) Echo
No
echo Echo
No
echo
Un-
treated Treated Census during the penetrations of the airplane through the
30-39 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 cloud. These discrete time intervals varied from
40--49 0 5 3 3 0 50 4 about 2 to 4 min. Also, the radar set cannot "see"
50-59 5 12 5 7 29 42 12
60-69 2 13 9 9 13 50 26 anything which is within one radar pulse length, a
70-79 2 3 s 2 40 60 50 distance which amounts to about 500 ft. In addition,
80-89 1 1 1 1 50 50 75
time for recovery of the radar receiver must be
JULY 1957 R. R. BRAHAM, JR., L. J. BATTAN, AND H. R. BYERS 71
TABLE 10. Frequencies of first echo as a function of time shown in fig. 15. Preliminary examination of the echo
elapsed from treatment pass (valid cloud pairs only).
intensities and durations appears to show little differ-
Number of cases ence between the treated and untreated clouds. In
Treated most cases the echoes did not grow after first detection
Time Large Small Un- but dissipated instead, indicating that the cloud was
(min) valve valve treated Total "raining itself out." In a few cases the tops of the
o--1.9 0 echoes grew for sufficient periods of time to permit
2-3.9 4 2 6 measurements of average rates of growth. It was
4-5.9 8 1 1 10
6-7.9 3 1 4 8 found that ascent rates of the tops ranged from 130
8-9.9 6 1 1 8 to 780 ft per min or about half the values found for
1D--11.9 2 2 clouds over the continent (Workman and Reynolds
12-13.9 1 1 2 [65]; Battan [3]). If the ascent of the radar echo
14-15.9 1 1
16-17.9 0 top is related to the updraft speeds, the vertical
18-19.9 1 cloud motions in tropical cumulus clouds are about
20-21.9 2 2 half those in large convective clouds over the United
22-23.9 1 1 States. Malkus [40] has reported updrafts ranging
24-25.9 1 1 as high as 1000 ft per min in tropical clouds. In view
Total 22 4 16 42 of the fact that the drops giving the echo were falling
relative to the rising air, the values Malkus measured
compared favorably with the radar measurements.
allowed. This imposes a time threshold, because if the
If water treatment of clouds acts in the manner
precipitation process is initiated by the water from
postulated in earlier sections, a difference might be
the airplane, a finite time is required for the drops to
expected between the locations of the initial echoes
travel more than 500 ft above or below the airplane
within treated and untreated clouds. The positions o{
flight path.
The average time for precipitation initiation in the the initial echoes relative to the levels of treatment
untreated clouds that were part of valid pairs was (fig. 15) indicate that such a difference existed. in all
11.9 min; for the treated clouds it was 6.4 and 8.5 but one cloud treated where the large valve was used,
min for the large and small valve data, respectively.
In order to evaluate the significance of the differ-
ences in times, calculations were made of the prob- Untreated
abilities of obtaining the observed distributions by
chance using the Wilcoxan test (Kruskal and Wallis
[28]). In making this test the data were separated
according to whether only one or both clouds of the
pair produced precipitation echoes. It was found that
the probabilities of obtaining the observed time
cn4
differences were 0.022 and 0.0003 for the small and 1&1
C/1
large valve data, respectively. The probabilities were "" Treated- Small valve
...0
(,.)

computed by the null hypothesis, one tailed test. 2

The computations were for data from the one cloud a:
1&1
of a pair that produced echoes. The latter probability ID
::E
is very significant statistically. Thus it can be con- z
::1

cluded that the time elapsed between the treatment

4
of a cloud and the occurrence of the first precipitation
echo was significantly smaller than the time which Treated- Lorge valve
would have elapsed if the cloud produced an echo 2
naturally.
vi. Level of echo formation in tropical cumuli.* The
positions of the initial precipitation echoes relative to
the height of the airplane on the treatment pass are
4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -a
HEIGHT DIFFERENCE - 1000 FT

* The research reported in this subsection was adapted from FIG. 15. Height of airplane on treating pass minus height of
a thesis submitted by John R. Sievers to the Department of top of initial precipitation echo. Frequencies are for all valid
Meteorology, University of Chicago, in partial fulfillment of the clouds of both valid and invalid cloud pairs observed in Caribbean
requirements for the S.M. degree. area from November 1953-March 1954.
72 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS VoL. 2, No. 11

the echo formed below the treatment level. On the TABLE 11. Frequency of development of r~dar echo~~ in treated
and untreated tropical clouds as a functiOn of positive and
other hand, in untreated clouds and in clouds treated negative buoyancy (positive buoyancy: cloud
with the small valve, the initial echo sometimes air less dense than environment air).
formed above and sometimes below the treatment
level. This indicates that, in the case of the large (a) Small valve
valve treatment, the precipitation formed through Positive Negative
buoyancy buoyancy
the action of many large drops falling through the
No Sub- No Sub-
cloud and coalescing with cloud droplets. Echo echo total Echo echo total Total
vii. Buoyancy considerations in tropical clouds.* One Treated 3 12 15 1 9 10 25
of the criteria for the selection of a cloud eligible for Untreated 4 9 13 2 10 12 25
treatment was the vertical extent of the cloud. This Total 7 21 28 3 19 22 50
parameter was used because of its correlation with
the probability of precipitation and because of the (b) Large valve
ease of measurement. In addition, the shape and the Positive Negative
appearance of the cloud were used to indicate whether buoyancy buoyancy

or not the cloud was growing. This subjective evalua- Echo echo
No Sub-
total
No
Echo echo
Sub-
total Total
tion of the vertical motions within the cloud gives
some idea of the expected future behavior of the Treated 3 3 6 4 3 7 13
Untreated 4 4 8 0 5 5 13
cloud; however, it has obvious weaknesses. A much
better inference of the future behavior of the cloud Total 7 7 14 4 8 12 26

can be drawn from measurements of the difference of

virtual temperature inside and outside the cloud ture difference by about 0.14C at 800 mb and 10C.
(AT). This term is directly related to the vertical The AT values were calculated from the mean tem-
acceleration of the cloud air, but it was not used in perature in the cloud compared with the mean value
the selection of eligible clouds. taken in the clear air over a radial distance of 1 to
The temperature data obtained in the course of 1.5 cloud diameters. Cloud space was assumed to
the flights gave additional information on the efficacy be saturated. The San Juan radiosonde was used to
of treatment and support to the decision to study obtain clear air humidity. Because of the lack of
clouds in pairs. It has been found that clouds in a temperature measurements on some flights, the num-
given pair tended to resemble each other (with regard ber of cases is less than that given in earlier tables.
to buoyancy and thus presumably with regard to Statistical tests of the data from table 11 showed
other unmeasured parameters) more than they re- results that were statistically insignificant. Never-
sembled any other clouds in the series. theless, a few inferences may be made. For example,
Analyses were made of the values of AT on the there is no evidence that there is any difference
first passes through the cumuli examined in the between the proportional effect of small valve treat-
Caribbean from November 1953 to March 1954. ment on echo probability between positively and
Table 11 summarizes the analyses. It is to be noted negatively buoyant clouds.
that, in this table and in the subsequent discussion, Turning to the large valve data, it may be seen
no account has been taken of within-flight pairing. that for positively buoyant clouds the treatment had
This may be a serious defect, but attempts to take no apparent effect. Both for treatment and no treat-
pairing into account resulted in spreading the already ment the proportion of echoes was 0.50. On the other
sparse data over so many classifications that analysis hand, for negatively buoyant clouds the apparent
was made virtually impossible. effect of the treatment was to increase echo proportion
Positive and negative buoyancy in table 11 mean from 0 to "'4/7 or 0.57. This suggests the hypothesis
AT > 0.1C and AT < 0.1C, respectively; The pres- that the mechanism of large valve treatment affects
ence-of liquid water in a cloud reduces the buoyancy echo probability in positively buoyant clouds very
below that indicated by the virtual temperature little, but that it substantially increases echo prob-
difference. An average liquid water content of 0.5 ability in negatively buoyant clouds. Tests of this
gm per m 3 effectively reduces the virtual tempera- interaction hypothesis did not show statistical signifi-
it is adjudged that the suggestion
* The research reported in this subsection was adapted from a cance; however,
thesis to be submitted by Miss Bernice Ackerman t? the Depart- about the mechanism of large valve treatment is well
ment of Meteorology, University of Chicago, in partial fulfillment
of the requirements for the S.M. degree. worth future investigation.
juLY 1957 R. R. BRAHAM, JR., L. J. BATTAN, AND H. R. BYERS 73
TABLE 12. Distribution of cloud top altitude of untreated and dry ice treated cumuli in Central United States
(valid cloud pairs only).

Altitude of cloud top (1000's of ft, mean sea level)

Mean
14- 15- 16- 17- 18- 19- 20- 21- 22- altitude
14.9 15.9 16.9 17.9 18.9 19.9 20.9 21.9 22.9 Total (lOOO's of ft msl)

Treated 3 4 7 2 6 5 27 20.2
Untreated 2 3 10 7 1 2 26 19.5

viii. Results of precipitation initiation experiments
the Central United States
(a) Cloud treatment with dry ice. One of the princi-
pal aims in the continental phase of the program was
the evaluation of results of cloud treatment by dry
ice. Unfortunately, during the period available for
these experiments, the frequency of suitable convec-
tive clouds was small. Accordingly, the final sample
of valid cloud pairs was also small. Table 12 shows
the distribution of the heights of clouds at the times
of the treatment passes (cases for which data were
available).
The results of dry ice treatment of convective
clouds over Central United States are given in table
13. It can be seen that in seven pairs of clouds the
treated cloud developed an echo and the untreated
cloud did not; in five pairs the reverse situation pre-
vailed. These results might suggest that treatment
had a small positive effect. However, the probability
of occurrence of such a distribution by chance alone
~n more unusual distribution) in table 13 by chance is
0.39. Thus, it cannot be concluded that dry ice treat-
ment increases the probability of precipitation initia-
tion. At the same time, neither can it be concluded
that treatment does not have such an effect.
Further information on the results of dry ice treat-
ment is given in fig. 16. Precipitation echoes developed
in approximately 40 per cent of the treated clouds
with tops colder than -7C at the time of treatment.
These results are in contrast with the Australian
results of Squires and Smith [56] which showed
"positive results" for approximately 50 per cent of
the clouds in the interval from OC to -7C and for
100 per cent of the clouds colder than - 7C. It is
unlikely that this difference is due to differing cloud
TABLE 13. Contingency table for radar echoes from dry ice
treatment of cumuli in Central United States.
Treated cloud of pair
No
Echo echo Total

must be considered. Under the hypothesis that the Untreated cloud Echo 1 5 6
probabilities of formation of an echo in treated and of pair No echo 7 14 21
untreated clouds are the same, the probability of Total 8 19 27
obtaining the observed seven-five distribution (or a

-8
s
0

1-
s0 s 0s s0
z +
w 0
::!!: -4 0 0
1-
<t 0 + 0

ti
w 0 0
a:: +
1-

!;i -2 0
0
dr
++
a: 0 0 0 0
::!!:
w 0
1-

-2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 -14 -16

TEMPERATURE OF CLOUD TOP oc
FIG. 16. The formation ( +) or non-formation ( 0) of a precipitation echo as a function of tem-
perature of cloud top and temperature at treatment altitude for dry ice treated clouds. S indicates
clouds treated at average effective rate of 12 lb per mi. Other clouds treated at average effective
rate of 28 lb per mi.
 74 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS VoL. 2, No. 11

6
TABLE 15. Contingency table for radar echoes from water
treatment of cumuli in Central United States.

Treated cloud of pair

No
Echo echo Total

Untreated cloud Echo 1 2 3

of pair No echo 3 11 14
-16 Total 4 13 17

Fr<?· 17. Frequency of untreated clouds of dry ice pairs as a

functwn of cloud top temperature. Shaded areas: Clouds which
produced echoes.
top temperatures, cloud thickness, or rates of treat-
ment, all of which were essentially the same in the
two sets of experiments. The only marked difference
appears to be in the life span of the clouds under
study. Squires and Smith report that all clouds studied
were observed for at least 45 min and that precipita-
tion was usually first observed between 10 and 20
min after treatment. The clouds studied by the Cloud
Physics Project existed for much shorter duration
than those studied by Squires and Smith, and less
time elapsed between treatment and precipitation.
Assuming that the two groups of investigators were
equally successful in following the continuity of in-
dividual clouds, it appears that the differences in
results are related to regional differences in the clouds
studied.
Among the pairs of clouds of which one was treated
with dry ice, the only untreated clouds that developed
echoes were those with temperatures at the top lower
than - 7C (with one exception), fig. 17. Of the clouds
colder than -7C, the fractions of treated and un-
treated ones which developed echoes were 0.42 and
0.33, respectively. The difference in these fractions
suggests that the treatment has a positive effect, but
in such a small sample it is much too small to be
significant. Satisfactory cloud top data were available
for 26 ofthe 27 untreated clouds represented in table 13.
The fact that many subcooled cumulus clouds were
treated with dry ice without the initiation of precipi-
tation raises the question of whether or not the clouds
were overseeded. Although it is possible that there
was overseeding, there is strong evidence that the
absence of precipitation was due to the introduction
of too little dry ice into the clouds. This is discussed
in detail in section 5 ix.
(b) Water treatment in Central United States. The
results of water treatment in Central United States
are shown in tables 14 and 15. The relatively high
number (11) at the lower right in table 15 expresses
the fact that some cloud pairs were studied on days
when the clouds were small, certainly unsuitable for
dry ice treatment, and probably unsuitable for any
kind of treatment because of the very small prob-
ability that either naturally or artificially induced
precipitation would occur. The distribution along the
diagonal from lower left to upper right does not
permit any conclusions regarding the positive or
negative effects of water treatment.
ix. The problem of overseeding. The problem of over-
seeding is one of the more obscure aspects of the
concept of artificial cloud nucleation. Although the
physical principles through which overseeding might
act are well established theoretically, there is almost
no information concerning the requirements of clouds
for nuclei and the efficiency of various treatment
methods under actual field use. Therefore, it appears
impossible to determine, short of actual field trials
which rates of treatment can create an overseeded
condition in a cloud. Obviously the critical rate will
depend upon the natural nuclei count and the size
and kind of cloud under consideration, in addition to
the treatment technique.
For overseeding to be important in preventing the
initiation of precipitation it must result in sufficient
numbers of ice crystals to cause them to compete for
the available water within the cloud. Hence, over-
seeding results in a cloud containing a large number
of ice crystals, each of which is too small to fall

TABLE 14. Distribution of cloud top altitude of untreated and water treated cumuli in Central United States
(valid cloud pairs only).

Altitude of cloud top (1000's of ft. mean sea level)

Mean
12- 13- 14- 15- 16- 17- 18- 19- 20- 21- 22- 23- altitude
12.9 13.9 14.9 15.9 16.9 17.9 18.9 19.9 20.9 21.9 22.9 23.9 Total (1000's of ft msl)

Treated 2 1 1 2 2 4 2 2 17 16.8
Untreated· 2 3 4 3 2 2 17 15.9
jULY 1957 R. R. BRAHAM, JR., L. J. BATTAN, AND H. R. BYERS 75

through the cloud and grow by accretion. If a cloud
contains large amounts of liquid water for substantial
periods following treatment, it may safely be assumed
that it was not overseeded. Throughout all the Cloud
Physics Project experiments, an effort was made to
determine the physical state of the clouds studied,
both before and after treatment. It was for this pur-
pose that a procedure of repeated probes on a single
cloud was instituted. In the analysis of the results of
the dry ice treatment experiments, measurements
taken on probes following treatment were given
special study in order to determine, if possible, the
degree to which the cloud was converted from water
particles to ice particles.
In 24 dry ice treated clouds the information was
sufficiently detailed to make an investigation fruitful.
Results are presented in table 16, which shows the
temperatures of the clouds during treatment passes
as a function of the phase of the precipitation particles
x. Droplet size distribution in convective clouds. In any
study concerned with the problem of precipitation, it
is essential to have information on the droplet size
distribution in the clouds involved. Ideally, one would
like to know the variations in space and time as the
cloud passes through its life cycle. It would then be
possible to make reasonable inferences regarding the
processes involved in the growth and evaporation of
the cloud droplets. However, there are no instruments
available at present which permit continuous measure-
ments of droplet sizes in large cloud volumes. The
device used by the Cloud Physics Project, described
by Brown and Willett [10], permitted the capture of
droplets on a moving, oiled slide. It has the advantage
of simplicity and dependability but suffers because of
1000

j\
. \0\
(ice, water, or both) and the subsequent development
of a precipitation echo. It is to be noted that only
one of the three clouds which were completely turned
to ice crystals developed a precipitation echo. Echoes
developed in approximately one-half of the clouds 100 +-+ Cloud Physics Project
which consisted of a mixed ice-water phase. The most 0\ -
\
o-o Weickmonn and aufm Kampe
surprising point of these data, however, is that in 9
\
\ ... A - .. Diem

\
\, 0""
of the 24 clouds, ice crystals were too sparse to be
detected by the controller or the cloud sampler.
Three of the nine were treated at temperatures
warmer than - 2C which might account for their
behavior, although in five other clouds treated at
10 \\ \
\ 0"
\ 0

this temperature ice particles were detected. At present \

these apparent anomalies are not understood. A ....I
::;:
\
\ a'\.
possible explanation may be that dry ice pellets are u
"
""0\
vastly less effective for producing ice crystals in field \\ 0
a:

\
use than in the controlled conditions of the laboratory. w
00
::;: 1.0
\,
An alternative possibility is that the rate of lateral :::>
z

\
mixing within a cumulus cloud is much slower than
has been assumed, with the result that the airplane
missed the treated area even though the clouds were

v
observed by repeated probes for an average of 8 min
after treatment.
0.1
On the basis of the evidence at hand, it appears
unlikely that failure to initiate an echo in some of the
clouds studied resulted from overseeding. If anything,
it appears as though too little ice was dispensed in
some of the clouds. This also is indicated in the data
of fig. 16 where the occurrence of an echo is identified
· 01 ~~~1~0~~~20~~~30~~~4~0~~~5~0~~~60~~~70
with one of the two different treatment rates used in DROPLET DIAMETER- MICRONS
the experiments. The no echo cases at cold treatment
FIG. 18. Droplet size distribution in fair weather cumuli.
temperatures in fig. 16 all occurred with the 17 lb per Observed droplet concentrations of 1000, 302 and 170 per cm 3 were
mi dispensing rate. This suggests that the rate may found by Diem, Weickmann and aufm Kampe, and the Cloud
Physics Project, respectively. Dotted curve: Droplet sizes subject
be too low for the most effective treatment. to largest evaporation losses.
76 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS VoL. 2, No. 11

TABLE 16. Temperature distribution of dry ice treated clouds in correction is very small. All of the data were corrected
terms of subsequent phase of precipitation particles and
ensuing radar echoes. Data marked by asterisk rep- using these values. However, it should be pointed out
resent clouds observed for more than 500 sec. that, because the slide was moving rapidly across the
air stream when the sampling was accomplished,
Ice only Mixed ice and water Water only
steady state conditions likely did not exist and the
Echo No echo Echo No echo Echo No echo
actual collection efficiencies may have been higher
-2.0* -1.9* -1.9* -1.4 -3.1* -0.6 than those given above.
-4.9 -2.2* -1.5 -1.5
-2.8* -1.8* -1.6
A second correction which should be applied to the
-3.7* -3.1 -3.1* droplet data is to compensate for droplet evaporation
-4.6 -3.8* -3.6 between the time of impingement on the slide and the
-4.2* -4.0
-8.8* -4.0 time the photograph is made. By taking photographs
-4.9* of the same slide at fixed time intervals, it was
Total possible to measure the rate of evaporation of particu-
cases 2 5 7 8 24 lar drops. An analysis of this type showed that the
evaporation proceeded at a rate given approximately
the small cloud volume sampled, a maximum of by
about 7.5 cm 3 for each pass through a cloud. (2)
In the evaluation of the droplet data, certain
where a is droplet diameter in microns and c is equal
corrections are necessary. First, differences in the
to """1.75,u2 per sec. Equation (2) shows that the
collection efficiencies for drops of various sizes must
evaporation of small drops is serious for periods of
be resolved. Use of the equations of Langmuir and
time running into tens of seconds. However, for a 25,u
Blodgett [32] were made to calculate the collection
droplet, evaporation would result in a decrease of
efficiency as a function of droplet diameter. These
diameter of about 1,u in 40 sec. (The maximum period
equations are based on an assumption of steady state
of time during which evaporation could occur between
air flow around a stationary ribbon. It was found that
collection and photography was about 40 sec.) For
the efficiency averaged 0. 74, 0.90 and 0.94 for droplets
this reason if is considered that no correction is
in the intervals 5-10,u, 10-15,u, and 15-20,u, respec-
necessary for the larger size drops. For the smaller
tively. Thus, except for the smallest size groups, this
sizes, a correction should be applied. Because of the
100 uncertainty of the number of droplets which com-
pletely evaporated, the data presented in fig. 18, 19
·o-----.o.. and 20 have not been corrected for evaporation.
-.... __ _ +-+ 10 Clouds which developed
an echo
(a) Fair weather cumuli over Central United States.
o- -o 21 Clouds which did not The average drop size distribution in fair weather
'+.. -~
. \
develop an echo
cumuli in Central United States is plotted in fig. 18
10
\ \ along with similar curves obtained by Diem [15] and
'\;, Weickmann and aufm Kampe [61]. The new curve

+\. shows a pronounced difference from those found by

Diem and Weickmann and aufm Kampe. The latter
0\ studied clouds with "extremely warm" bases and with
higher liquid water contents than those examined by
'~"
\ '-+ the Cloud Physics Project. The clouds in the cumulus

\,\
\ +""-
humilis category studied by the Cloud Physics Project
varied in thickness from about 1000 to 3000 ft, did
not grow significantly greater subsequent to the drop-

0.1
.0 5 L-~10~~~2~0~~~3~0--~~4~0~--5~0~~~6~0~~~7~0~~80
DROPLET DIAMETER
FrG. 19. Droplet size distribution in cumulus congestus over
Central United States, none of which contained an echo at time
of sampling. Solid line: Clouds which developed precipitation
echoes at a later time (average observed droplet concentrations
142 per cm 3). Dashed line: Clouds which did not develop echoes
(average observed droplet concentrations 190 per cm 3).
\.,, \
\ +
let measurement, and showed no signs of precipitation.
" + +-+ (b) Cumulus congestus over Central United States.
In cumulus congestus over Central United States
there was an important difference in the drop size
- MICRONS
distribution from that found for fair weather cumulus
(fig. 19). In these clouds it can be seen that the range
of the distributions extends to 62,u with several drop-
lets at """75,u. This maximum size is about half that
given by Weickmann and aufm Kampe. None of the
jULY 1957 R. R. BRAHAM, JR., L. ]. BATTAN, AND H. R. BYERS 77

.
10.0 are consistent with observations of precipitation from
warm cumulus clouds in the tropics, because they
:···~....·:»-4/~~\
' \
show that in these clouds there are many drops with
diameters exceeding SO,u-large enough to grow
+ - + I I Clouds with Khoes
rapidly through coalescence. Concentrations of drops
o- -o 27 Clouds without echoes
larger than SOJL are of the order of 10 6 per rna. If only a
I fraction of these grew by coalescence, they could

\\\\
I+ produce significant rainfall.
A summation of the mass of the drops in a unit
10 volume of cloud gives the liquid water content of that
\ + volume of air. This scheme for determining the liquid
water content has been used by several investigators.

\\
....I Because of the inherent limitations of the volume of
::e cloud actually sampled, values computed in this way
0
are of limited usefulness. This is clearly evident from

\~
a consideration of fig. 21 which presents part of a
record obtained in a tropical cumulus cloud during
the Cloud Physics Project operations.
I +
The figure shows marked differences in liquid water
0.1
content over short distances inside the cloud, with
maximum values reaching about 2.0 gm per rna. In
\ \
I
I +
I+ making calculations of droplet growth by coalescence,
I there is always a question whether theoretical values

\o, I~I of liquid water content based on a moist adiabatic

ascent should be used, or whether entrainment could
\ I I be effective enough to reduce the growth of droplets
\1 I -+-+-+ throughout the cloud. The theoretical liquid water
I content for the cloud considered in fig. 21 is 2.0 gm
01 '---7.:1o;---:;2~o-3:f:o::---::-4\::;-0--:5~o;---::'s':::-o--=7-t;o:--:a~o~-go
L-oJ-
100 ....Lo
110
I per rna. Thus, within limited parts of this cloud, the
120
DROPLET DIAMETER- MICRONS observed values approximated those calculated under
FIG. 20. Droplet size distribution in tropical cumuli. Solid line: the assumption of a moist adiabatic ascent. Within
Clouds which contained precipitation echoes at the time of sam- these localized regions of high water content, the
pling (average observed droplet concentrations 46 per cm 3).
Dashed line: Clouds which did not contain echoes (averaged ob- rate of growth of droplets would be rapid. Once some
served droplet concentrations 48 per cm 3). large droplets are formed and mixed in the cloud by
turbulence, in a short time they would infect the
clouds represented in fig. 19 contained echoes at the entire cloud. Further study of liquid water content
time of the first sampling pass, although echoes sub- may yield information on the efficacy of cloud treat-
sequently developed in some clouds. It is evident that ment and the character of turbulence in convective
there was a higher percentage of droplets greater than clouds.
35JL in the clouds which later developed echoes. In
xi. Sea salt particles in the atmosphere. Observations
these clouds one would expect to find even larger
of rain and large droplet sizes in clouds warmer than
droplets than those observed, but the probability of
OC have proven that there exists a process within
capturing large, infrequent drops is quite small using
the present sampling techniques. '? 2.0
(c) Tropical cumuli. The droplet size distributions :>

"'
in tropical cumuli were distinctly different from those :. 1,6
z
observed over the United States (fig. 20). The first "' 1.2
~
0
u
feature to be noted is the double maxima in the
~0.8
distribution curve, with the first maximum at the ;
0.4
smallest size range and the other at 25-30JL. This bi- 0
5
0

modality was found in many individual clouds and is ::i

74 78 80 82 88
TIME- SEC
not a result of the averaging process. Another im-
portant feature of the data was the observation of FrG. 21. Record of liquid water content measurements in a
tropical cumulus. Cloud top height 7500 ft, base 2000 ft; aircraft
droplets with diameters larger than SOJL. These data altitude 4500 ft.
78 METEOROLOGICAL
these clouds whereby large droplets are produced
without the existence of ice. The most promising
theory for the explanation of these observations is
that large sea salt nuclei grow rapidly into large
cloud droplets by condensation when the relative
humidity of the air is increased to saturation (Ludlum
[39]; Mason and Ludlum [41]; Woodcock [63] and
Wexler [62]). A droplet of 50,u diameter is large
enough to grow by coalescence. A droplet of this size
will result from condensation on a dry sea salt nucleus
of 10,u diameter if allowed to grow to equilibrium at
99 per cent relative humidity (Woodcock [63]). If,
on the other hand, a value of 100 per cent is assumed
for the relative humidity, a smaller salt nucleus will
be sufficient. Theoretical work by Squires [54] indi-
cates that a 3,u diameter salt nucleus will grow to a 50JL
solution droplet in approximately 1.5 min under
saturated conditions. Thus, in a rising column of
cloud air, large salt nuclei can grow into large cloud
droplets by condensation and then continue increasing
in size by coalescence. Before accepting this theory,
it remains to be shown that there are adequate num-
bers of large hygroscopic particles in the atmosph~re.
During the flight operations in Puerto Rico and in the
United States, measurements were made of the sizes
and concentrations of salt nuclei using the new
Millipore technique devised by Lodge (see section 6).
Woodcock and his collaborators [63; 64] have made
many observations of sea salt particles in the air over
tropical oceans and have supported the theory of
10
.... 8
II..
0
0
0
I 6
UJ
0
::J
....
....
;i 4
ol~ono------~~o~~------~,~o~2--~--~------~~~0~4r-----~.------u~~-----J,o7
NUMBER OF PARTICLES
FIG. 22. Concentration of sea salt particles of various sizes as a function of height. Observations
made on windward side of Puerto Rico. (After Lodge [35].)
MONOGRAPHS VoL. 2, No. 11
growth of salt nuclei into large droplets. The Cloud
Physics Project experiments in the tropics were de-
signed to study the variation of airborne salt distribu-
tion on the windward and leeward sides of Puerto
Rico and to measure the variation of salt nuclei as a
function of distance from the shore line. Detailed
discussion of the results of this work is given in a
paper by Lodge [35].
In order to determine the distribution of chloride
particles aloft, measurements were made from an
airplane flown at various altitudes from 100 to 10,000
ft above the ocean surface on the windward and
leeward sides of Puerto Rico. The results obtained
on typical flights are presented in fig. 22 and 23.
Figure 22 shows an interesting feature; namely, that
on the windward side of the island the data recorded
approach a Boltzmann distribution with altitude.
The increase with height of the concentration of
particles less than 6,u through the interval from 100
to 500 ft was observed on four flights. Note that in
the vicinity of the average cloud base, there were
particles numbering about 102 to 10 5 per m 3 having
diameters of 10 and 3,u, respectively. These represent
an adequate number to produce precipitation by
condensation and coalescence. Measurements showed
concentrations of 10 6 per m 3 of droplets larger than 50JL
diameter in tropical clouds. The implications of these
data with regard to the precipitation process are
evident. Distribution of airborne salt nuclei on the
leeward side of Puerto Rico is presented in fig. 23.
Flight 65. Distribution of
Chloride Particles with
Altitude on the Windward
Side of Puerto Rico,
21 January 1954
Collection
PER CUBIC
JuLY 1957 R. R. BRAHAM, JR.,
10
1- 8 Millipare Collection
IL.
0
0
0
I 6
w
0
:::>
1-
1-
...I
<l 4
10 1
NUMBER OF
FIG. 23. Concentration of sea salt particles of various sizes as a function of height. Observations
made on leeward side of Puerto Rico. (After Lodge [35].)
Of particular interest is the pronounced minimum
at about 2000 ft which is probably a result of washout
and particulate precipitation during the overland tra-
jectory of the air.
Measurements of salt nuclei concentrations meas-
ured in Puerto Rico at the surface at various distances
downwind from the coast line indicated a general
decrease with increasing distance. One series of ob-
servations showed a marked reduction of ground
level concentration immediately after the occurrence
of precipitation. These measurements suggest that
during a long overland trajectory the concentration
of large salt nuclei are greatly reduced.* Measurements
of nuclei concentrations at the ·ground in central
Illinois for which an impactor was used (see section 6),
showed concentrations of 10JL salt particles of the
order of 2 per m 3 (Reitan, Braham [45]). Further
studies showed that impactor collections suffer serious
fading losses, hence these measurements are of
limited value. During the summer of 1954, data were
collected in the free air over the continent using the
millipore technique [11]. On two flights, one at
2500 ft and the other at 5000 ft, it was found that
particles with diameters ;::: 10JL were present in con-
centrations of the order of 100 per m 3 in areas well
inland. On the same flights, concentrations of particles
;:::3J.I ranged from 102 to 104 per m 3 •
*Similar measurements made over southeastern Australia have
been described by Twomey [57].
L. J. BATTAN, AND H. R. BYERS 79
Flight 64. Oistri bution of
Chloride Particles With
Altitude on the Leeward
Side of Puerto Rico,
20 January 1954
103
PARTICLES
Although emphasis has been placed on the properties
of sea salt particles, it is also of importance to recognize
that other hygroscopic nuclei may be present in
relatively large concentrations. It has been suggested
by Junge [26] that ammonium and sulphate com-
pounds are present in adequate sizes and numbers
to be important in atmospheric condensation processes.
xii. Suggestion for future studies. In addition to the
studies already discussed, a number of others should
be conducted. These include the following:
1. An investigation of the relationship between the
electric fields in convective clouds and the forma-
tion of precipitation and lightning.
2. A study of the growth and duration of convective
clouds, treated and untreated, using data col-
lected from a ground site as well as from a flight
program.
3. A study of the importance of medium scale
synoptic weather conditions in determining the
formation of convective clouds and precipitation.
4. Continuation of studies of liquid water content
in convective clouds, cloud droplet distributions,
level of formation of precipitation in treated and
untreated clouds, the role of hygroscopic nuclei
in precipitation processes, the energy balance of
small convective clouds and many other factors
bearing on the problem of artificial cloud
nucleation.
80 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS
The fairly large amount of work involved in the
ground installations at Champaign is not discussed
in this paper, although mention has been made of the
particulate measurements there.
6. Laboratory work of the Cloud Physics Project
The Cloud Physics Project had the services of a
small staff of chemists who conducted research on
problems related to the formation of clouds and
precipitation. Most of the results of the laboratory
investigations have been published elsewhere. Ac-
cordingly, this paper contains only brief summaries
of the aims and results of the experiments.
i. Capture, identification and sizing of small particles.
The process of condensation in the atmosphere and,
to a considerable extent precipitation itself, depend
on nucleation by small particles. The nature of these
particles and the manner in which they operate are
known only partially. To obviate this situation, a
great deal of effort has been devoted to the problem
of capturing, identifying and sizing atmospheric par-
ticulates. One of the most useful techniques was
developed by Seely [50]. It involves the use of a
layer of gelatin on thin strips of polystyrene. The
gelatin is impregnated with a chemical reagent which
reacts with the particle to produce a halo of crystals
around the area of the original particle. The size of
the halo is a function of the size of the nucleus and
the time of reaction. Seely gave some values of halo
sizes for sodium chloride particles with mercurous
fluosilicate as reagent. The rates of growth and fading
of the halos produced in this way were studied in
greater detail by Pidgeon [44]. Tests for other
substances are given by Lodge and Fanzoi [37].
When using the gelatin-coated strips, the capture
of the particles is accomplished with an impactor.
The impaction is satisfactorily accomplished for par-
ticles of diameter :2: 1-2J,t, but the collection efficiency
at smaller sizes is < 1 and decreases with decreasing
particle sizes. Since the sub-micron particles are
important in cloud formation, it was necessary to
develop another technique for the capture of the
small particulates.
The commercial filter material called millipore
(Bush [11]) which retains particles down to about
0.2JL has been adapted by Lodge [34] for capturing
atmospheric particulates. Flow rates through the
filter of the order of 6.0 1 per min at pressure drops of
35 mm Hg can be attained. In order to test for the
presence of a particular kind of nucleus, the filter is
brought into contact with a reagent having a specific
reaction with the substance to be detected. After a
sufficient time has been allowed to permit the reaction
VoL. 2, No. 11
to go to completion, the filter is washed and dried.
When the filter is treated with immersion oil, it
becomes transparent and the reaction sites can be
examined microscopically. The resulting halos are
similar to the ones found using the gelatin technique
and are related to the original sizes of the particles.
Specific reagents have been developed for the identifi-
cation of a number of ions among which are the
ammonium ion, calcium ion, magnesium ion, halides,
sulfates and nitrates. Details concerning the types
of reagents, the nature and colors of the resulting
halos, and suggested examination procedures are given
by Lodge [34].
The millipore sampler was used for studies of
atmospheric salt particulates in the Caribbean and
Central United States [35]. It has several advantages
over the gelatin technique. The first is the improved
collection efficiency of very small particles. The
second is that developing and counting the particles
can be done at will, provided the Millipore filter is
properly stored. It has been found that the small
halos fade rapidly with the gelatin technique; there-
fore, the sizing must be done very shortly after col-
lection. A third advantage of the millipore technique
is that the presence of particles having different
chemical compositions can be tested from a single
sample by cutting the filter into several pieces and
subjecting each piece to a different reagent.
ii. Flame counter for sodium bearing particulates. Al-
though the techniques discussed in the preceding
section have the advantages of being specific and
quantitative, they have the disadvantages of requiring
time-consuming development, microscopic inspection
and counting. For this reason, a device was developed
similar to those of Soudain [53] and Vonnegut and
Neubauer [58] which makes use of the spectroscopic
properties of sodium for automatically counting the
number of sodium-bearing particles in a measured
volume of air. In the operation of this device an
unmetered quantity of filtered air is mixed with a
metered quantity of unfiltered air and hydrogen to
produce a small flame. The light from the excited
sodium atoms is focused by a lens and passed through
a narrow band filter (sodium D-line) to a photo-
multiplier tube. The resulting pulse is suitably ampli-
fied and transmitted to two counters. One counter is
used to record all pulses above the noise level; the
other records all pulses above an adjustable threshold
level.
By using millipore collections in conjuction with
the flame counter, the latter may be calibrated so
that the threshold value of one of the counters can be
set to correspond to a known particle diameter. When
this has been accomplished, it is possible to monitor
}ULY 1957 R. R. BRAHAM, JR., L. J.
the concentration of salt particulates greater than a
certain size. Because of the importance of the large
particles, the instrument has much greater useful-
ness than one which can only measure total salt
concentration.
iii. Origin of atmospheric salt particulates. The origin
of salt particulates in the atmosphere has been the
subject of considerable debate, Wright [66; 67; 68]
and Simpson [51]. Wright sought to meet one of
Simpson's arguments by invoking the work of
Melander [43] who had suggested there was a pro-
duction of salt nuclei by evaporation of salt solutions.
Wright admitted that the details of the work needed
further study but noted that Melander's hypothesis
had never been refuted. From theoretical and experi-
mental work done in the Cloud Physics Project
laboratory, Lodge, McDonald and Baer [38] showed
conclusively that there is no basis for accepting the
Melander hypothesis as an explanation of the origin
of condensation nuclei in the atmosphere.
It has also been proposed that the number of salt
nuclei in the atmosphere is increased by the shattering
of crystal nuclei following total evaporation of large
droplets, Dessens [14]. Experiments were conducted
by Lodge and Baer [36] which showed that, under
conditions similar to those encountered in the atmos-
phere, desiccation of salt solution droplets does not
result in shattering of the nuclei to form new nuclei.
iv. Growth and freezing of small water droplets. In
addition to the studies of the identification and origin
of atmospheric nuclei, experiments were carried out
to investigate the growth and freezing of solution
droplets. One of the standard laboratory devices for
the nucleation of aqueous droplets (La Mer generator)
makes use of a heated salt-coated filament [19].
When an attempt was made to use this technique in
connection with another experiment, it was realized
that almost nothing was known of the size and
number of nuclei produced by this device. Tufts and
Lodge* conducted experiments using a thermal pre-
cipitator for capturing these nuclei and an electron
microscope for examining them. It was found that
the sizes and numbers of the nuclei vary in a predicta-
ble manner with the temperature and age of the
filament. The shapes of the salt crystal nuclei were
related to the relative humidity. Under most operating
conditions, the nuclei are small solution droplets due
to the hygroscopicity of the nuclei.
Using droplets produced in a La Mer generator,
Goyer and others studied the variation of droplet
freezing temperatures as a function of droplet size
* Described in a paper delivered before the American Chemical
Society, 30 March 1955 Cincinnati, Ohio.
BATTAN, AND H. R. BYERS 81
and solution concentration. In past studies of freezing
temperatures, the water was either in bulk inside a
closed container (Hollstein, reported by Weickmann
[60] or droplets resting on a surface (Heverly [24];
Dorsch and Hacker [16] or at a fluid interface (Bigg
[4]). In order to check the possibility that the previous
data may have been affected by the presence of the
foreign boundary, experiments were carried out using
free droplets in a temperature-controlled chamber and
using light scattering techniques to determine the point
of freezing. The homogeneous nucleation of pure water
droplets at -40C was used to verify the experiment~!
procedure. As a result of these experimental studies,
it was possible to show that the work of Bigg and
Holstein can be combined into a single freezing point
diagram relating freezing temperatures to both the
droplet size and the solution concentration.
v. Droplet coalescence and breakup. Coalescence is the
predominant growth mechanism of precipitation par-
ticles after they have attained diameters of the order
of 100~. Thus it is essential that the factors governing
coalescence be investigated, particularly in view of
the fact that water treatment is based upon the
coalescence process.
Generally, within the volume swept out by a falling
drop, the fraction of droplets that collide with the
falling drop (collision efficiency) is the value deter-
mined by Langmuir and Blodgett [32]. In most
studies of drop coalescence, it is assumed that all
droplets which collide will coalesce and thus only the
collision efficiency is considered. Sartor [49] has con-
ducted some research which raises questions about
the validity of this assumption. In an effort to learn
more about this important subject, experiments were
conducted by members of the Project using drop
sizes ranging from SO to 750~ produced by a jet of
water from a small nozzle. The droplets were made to
fall between two horizontal plates with a variable
voltage difference across them. The behavior of the
droplets was observed using a Fastex camera operated
at 7000 frames per sec. These measurements showed
that an electric field across the droplet region strongly
influenced collision and coalescence. This effect, shown
by the data in table 17, is in general agreement with
the findings of Sartor.
TABLE 17. Effect of ambient electric fields on
droplet coalescence efficiency.
Mean coalescence Standard deviation of
Electric field efficiency experimental data
(per cent)
(volts per em) (per cent)
0 29.4 3.1
3.1 33.5 2.4
15.4 88.7 3.6
38.4 95.3 1.6
82 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS
In view of the apparent importance of electrical
effects in promoting droplet coalescence, experiments
were designed to test the hypothesis that condensation
and evaporation separate electric charge [21]. This
suggestion has been cited in the literature as one
having possible importance in problems of cloud
physics [17; 18; 22]. Using conventional cloud droplet
generators, the Project experimenters found that the
growing cloud droplets were charged; however, it was
shown that this charge resulted from growth on a
charged nucleus or from Brownian pick-up after
formation. A water droplet generator was constructed
which produced sufficiently uniform sizes of solution
droplets to permit accurate size measurement by
standard light scattering techniques. There was no
observable charging of the droplets grown by con-
densation on NH4Cl particles in an ion-free atmos-
phere containing water, ammonia and hydrochloric
acid.
Another laboratory study concerned the shapes of
freely falling droplets. It is known that large falling
drops are distorted in such a fashion that the lower
part of the drop tends to flatten out. Since the prob-
ability of drop breakup depends on the shape of the
drop, a knowledge of the reasons for deformation is
important. McDonald completed a study of this
problem while with the Cloud Physics Project [42].
He showed that the physical factors which might be
expected to control the shape of large raindrops are
surface tension, and hydrostatic and aerodynamic
pressures.
7. Conclusions
The University of Chicago Cloud Physics Project
mvestigated precipitation processes in cumulus clouds
of tropical regions and over the Central United States,
making use of fully instrumented Air Force airplanes
and a well equipped laboratory. The most important
results and conclusions of this work are presented
here. Primary emphasis is placed upon the interpre-
tation of the data as they pertain to the problems of
artificial cloud nucleation. In so doing, the investiga-
tors in no way wish to detract from the importance of
research relevant to discovering fundamental processes
of natural precipitation. Only through such knowledge
can the problems of artificial cloud nucleation be
brought to a satisfactory conclusion.
1. The relative importance of the Bergeron ice-
crystal and the all-water condensation-coalescence
processes of precipitation formation differs between
the two major geographical regions of this study, and
perhaps between clouds of different origin within the
same region. As a consequence, the susceptibility of
VoL. 2, No. 11
cumuli for a given method of cloud treatment differs
in the two regions.
2. The data prove that within cumuli over the
ocean in the Caribbean area, precipitation is initiated
through an all-water process. The sizes and concen-
trations of sea salt nuclei measured in this region are
adequate to initiate precipitation in this manner.
Occasions when ice forming nuclei (dry ice or silver
iodide smokes) are required to initiate precipitation
in these clouds hardly ever exist. The evidence
indicates that many small cumuli (tops :::;; "' 10,000
ft) are amenable to water spray treatment. The
observations cover only the winter months near
Puerto Rico, but the physics of the precipitation in
the clouds studied indicate that this conclusion proba-
bly applies to all tropical oceanic areas during the
entire year.
The cloud census data for cumuli over the island
of Puerto Rico show that precipitation also formed
through an all-water process in many of the clouds.
However, the sample size and the limited number of
observations of clouds in the height ranges above
12,000 ft do not permit the conclusion that this is the
only process operating in these clouds.
Although no treatment experiments were carried
out in cumuli over the island, the physical processes
which lead to precipitation in these clouds are probably
the same as those in the cumuli over the ocean. This
means that many of the island clouds are amenable
to water spray treatment. The question of whether
or not any of the island cumuli will respond to dry
ice or silver iodide treatment cannot be answered
without further research.
3. In the cumulus population of the Central United
States, the fraction suitable for treatment is greater
than that in the Caribbean cloud population. The
total number of cumuli is greater, however, in the
latter area. A large fraction of the clouds over the
continent reach heights where they will react to both
dry ice and water spray treatments. If it is assumed
that the condensation-coalescence-pre cipitation proc-
ess requires the same amount of time in both regions,
more rapid growth rates could explain the greater
heights attained by the continental clouds.
4. The treatment of tropical cumuli. by water spray
at a rate of 450 gal per mi induced the formation of
precipitation in clouds in which none would have
occurred naturally. Although this conclusion is in-
dicated by each of several points of evidence, it is
supported principally by the following: (a) compari-
son of the echo probabilities in treated versus un-
treated clouds, (b) time required for the initiation of
a precipitation echo, (c) position within the cloud of
the initial echo, and (d) echo development versus the
JULY 1957 R. R. BRAHAM, JR., L. J.
mean buoyancy of the cloud air. The probability of
echo formation following the large valve treatment
apparently was independent of the cloud size provid-
ed that there was 4000 ft or more of cloud air below
the treatment level.
Except for the large quantity of water required,
the mechanics of the water spray treatment technique
were very simple. The clouds which are suitable for
treatment contain only weak turbulence and are
devoid of other characteristics which could make
treatment experiments hazardous.
5. The treatment of tropical cumuli by water spray
at the rate of 130 gal per mi, introduced near the
cloud top, produced no detectable increase in the
probability of precipitation formation.
6. The treatment of tropical cumuli by water spray
using the large valve resulted in a significant increase
in the rate of the precipitation process. The average
time requited for the initiation of precipitation in
untreated clouds was about 12 min following the
first pass, whereas for the treated clouds it was about
6 min. A similar increase was found for the clouds
treated using the small valve (average time 8 min),
but this result is considered insignificant because of
the small sample size.
7. Results of the analysis of the water treatment
of tropical cumuli permits the conclusion that this
process can increase the amount of precipitation reach-
ing the ground. This conclusion is based upon (a) the
demonstrated increase in the probability of precipita-
tion initiation following treatment, and (b) an ob-
served similarity of echo intensity and duration in
treated and untreated clouds.
8. The experiments involving dry ice treatment of
subcooled clouds in the Central United States do not
permit the conclusion that the treatment increased
or decreased the probability of precipitation initiation.
Although the number of echoes observed in treated
clouds was greater than in untreated clouds, the
difference was too small to be statistically significant
for the number of experiments performed. The con-
trast in results between the experiments of the Cloud
Physics Project and similar experiments carried out
in Australia suggests a regional difference in the
clouds studied.
Extensive observations and measurements were
made within subcooled cumuli following treatment
with dry ice. In many of these clouds the hydrometeors
remained unfrozen throughout the subsequent life of
the cloud even though treatment rates up to 28 lb per
mi had been used. This leads to the conclusion that
the lack of consistently marked effects following
treatment is to be accounted for by some subtlety
in cumulus behavior and not by overseeding.
BATTAN, AND H. R. BYERS 83
Acknowledgments-The research on Artificial Cloud
Nucleation reported in this paper has been sponsored
by the Geophysics Research Directorate of the Air
Force Cambridge Research Center, Air Research and
Development Command under Contract AF 19(604)-
618. The work was conducted in the Department of
Meteorology at the University of Chicago. Professor
Horace R. Byers, Chairman of the Department of
Meteorology, directed the research. Assisting him as
principal investigators and supervisors were: Dr.
Roscoe R. Braham, Jr., Associate Professor; Drs.
Louis J. Battan and Donald R. Fitzgerald, Meteorol-
ogists; Drs. Guy G. Goyer and James P. Lodge,
Chemists; Dr. James E. McDonald, Physicist; Ernest
A. Neil and John R. Sievers, Meteorologists; and
Kenneth E. Newton, Meteorological Instrument
Engineer.
The University of Chicago Committee on Statistics,
directed by Professor Allen W. Wallis, provided
invaluable help in the design of the experiment and
analysis of resulting data. Drs. William H. Kruskal
and K. Alexander Brownlee were largely responsible
for formulation of the statistical approach to the
problem. Their contributions were made possible
through a special contract between the Department
of Defense and the University of Chicago.
Throughout the duration of the research, Dr.
Worth H. Rodebush, Professor of Chemistry at the
University of Illinois, served as consultant to the
laboratory group. During the summers of 1953 and
1954, Dr. Rodebush was employed full time to direct
the efforts of the physics and chemistry laboratory
group.
The following individuals actively participated at
one time or another in the flight experiments, labora-
tory investigations and analysis efforts which led to
this report.
Bernice Ackerman, Edward N. Brown, Milton
Draginis, Lewis H. Fichthorn, Edward L. Harrington,
Thomas R. Morris, George V. Owens, Jack H. Willett,
and Stanley A. Zawadzki participated in the flight
experiments and analysis.
Earl W. Barrett, Chester J. Bednarzyk, Ralph A.
Larsen, Alan L. McPherron, Robert L. Slater, and
Constantine Yabes were employed on flight experi-
ments and instrument development.
Analyses of flight data were carried out by Gene E.
Birchfield, Kenneth C. Brundidge, Robert K. Hall,
Harry W. Maynard, Clayton H. Reitan.
Laboratory experiments were conducted by Ferdi-
nand Baer, Miriam L. Baker, Edgar W. Eubanks,
Hanny M. Fanzoi, Frances D. Pidgeon, John M.
Pierrard, William K. Sumida, Barbara J. Tufts, and
Raymond P. Westerdahl.
84 METEOROLOGICAL
Others who assisted in the research and preparation
of this paper were Roger F. Coup, Tetsuya Fujita,
Patrick F. Redden, D. Carol Schremp, and David
H. Slade.
A large measure of credit goes to the United
States Air Force officers and enlisted men that
made up Detachment 1, 6520th Flight Test Squadron.
Particular acknowledgment is due Captain Floyd H.
McKahan, detachment commander. Under his direc-
tion the test missions were flown in numbers far
exceeding that which could be expected for the type
of airplanes available for the program.
Successful operation of the Champaign field site
was largely the result of the efforts of Mr. Glenn E.
Stout and his assistants who were employed part time
under a subcontract with the University of Chicago.
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BATTAN, AND H. R. BYERS 85
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CLOUD AND WEATHER MODIFICATION:
a group of field experiments
by
S. Petterssen; J. Spar; F. Hall;
R. R. Braham, Jr., L. J. Battan, and H. R. Byers;
H. J. aufm Kampe, J. J. Kelly, and H. K. Weickmann.

V. SEEDING EXPERIMENTS IN SUBCOOLED STRATUS CLOUDS

By H. J. AUFM KAMPE, J. J. KELLY, AND H. K. WEICKMANN
Signal Corps Engineering Laboratories
(Manuscript received 3 April1956; revised manuscript received 13 November 1956)

ABSTRACT
Seeding experiments with dry ice and silver iodide are described. The experiments i~dicate that it ~s
possible to dissipate large cloud areas by seeding them with dry ice if the temperature Is below approxi-
mately -4C and the cloud decks are stable. For successful silver iodide seedings, the cl~ud temperature
should be around -10C and the seeding rate should be of the order of 100 gm Agi per mi.

I. Introduction stratocumulus cloud deck and thus opening a hole

In the last decade many cloud seeding projects
have been initiated in order to increase the rainfall
in certain areas. In most of the experiments it was
very difficult to decide whether or not the seeding
produced significant effects on the rainfall or whether
some of the heavier rainfalls from a seeded cloud
would have occurred anyhow, regardless of the seed-
ing. Unlike the seeding experiments from the ground
or seeding isolated cumulus type clouds, the seeding
of solid stratus or stratocumulus layers from an
airplane show the unmistakable results of the seeding.
Significant effects produced by seeding can be ex-
pected, of course, only with subcooled clouds. Sub-
cooled clouds are those whose temperatures are lower
than OC. They are in unstable equilibrium and when
seeded with suitable nuclei, the cloud droplets will
instantaneously change to ice crystals. After a number
of ice crystals have formed the rest of the water
droplets will evaporate, because the vapor pressure
over ice is less than that over water; hence, the ice
crystals will grow rapidly and fall out as precipita-
tion. Of course this cannot happen within a cloud
whose temperature is above freezing. It is obvious
that actual dissipation of low, subcooled stratus or
fog by seeding would be very helpful to air traffic
since this type of cloud is not only hazardous but may
completely paralyze the air traffic of an airport.
The problem of precipitating part of a subcooled
in it appears to be a straightforward task. In practice,
however, the problem is involved. Every cloud deck
is an entity in itself with different temperature, depth,
process of formation, internal shear, grades of turbu-
lence, etc. In addition all the difficulties associated
with the use of aircraft for probing the atmosphere
are present. The missions, therefore, require a very
high degree of teamwork between scientist and pilot.
2. Previous seeding experiments on stratus clouds
Experiments on the seeding of stratus-like sub-
cooled clouds have been carried out by both Project
Cirrus and the Wilmington Cloud Physics Project.*
The objective of the latter project was primarily to
investigate the effect of seeding in producing precipi-
tation; no particular effort was made to dissipate the
clouds. Project Cirrus succeeded in a few cases in
clearing holes in stratocumulus decks, but the number
of successful cases was insufficient to permit conclu-
sions of the proper procedure to follow in order to
dissipate stratus of a given type. Some investigators
have warned of the danger of overseeding a cloud,
i.e., of creating so many ice crystals that the water
and water vapor in the cloud would not be sufficient
for the crystals to grow large enough to have an
adequate fall velocity. It was suggested that a seeding
*EDITOR's NOTE: See also papers III and IV of this monograph.

86
jULY 1957 H. J. AUFM KAMPE, J. J. KELLY, AND H. K. WEICKMANN
rate of about 1-2 lb dry ice per mi would be sufficient
for stratus dissipation. This seeding rate was generally
used in the Project Cirrus stratus seeding experiments.
With the exception of one case, the Wilmington
group did not seed with more than 4 lb per mi.
3. Characteristics of subcooled cloud layers and cloud
decks
i. Stratus clouds. Two types of stratus clouds can be
distinguished-anticyclonic and cyclonic.
The anticyclonic stratus usually is found during the
fall and winter on the western slope of a high pressure
area. This type of cloud is produced both by radiation
and by mixing humid air from the south with the
stagnant cold air of the anticyclone. The stratus first
appears at the subsidence inversion, and the growth
proceeds downward. The cloud may persist for several
days and even weeks. During such a weather situation
the ceiling is usually low and the visibility poor near
the ground. The depth of the cloud deck, however, is
only a few hundred feet. The weather above the cloud
deck is clear, with perhaps a few high clouds present.
The weather situation just described occurs fre-
quently in western and central Europe during late
fall and winter, and it presents a great problem for all
aircraft operations. Because different climatological
and geographical conditions prevail in the United
States, this weather situation is not common in this
country.
The cyclonic stratus often is found in several layers
ahead of the warm front of a low pressure area.
However, the layers usually combine in a few hours
with the altostratus above, and a very thick precipitat-
ing cloud mass results which cannot be modified to
any extent by seeding.
ii. Stratocumulus clouds. This cloud type occurs usu-
ally in areas some distance from a low center where
convergence in lower layers is still present, but where
the upper layers of the atmosphere are already under
appreciable anticyclonic influence. In fall and winter
the stratocumulus type also occurs within a cold
anticyclone due to radiation. This anticyclonic strata-
cumulus usually disappears around noon due to
insolation and subsidence. Consequently this type of
cloud deck is normally not very persistent, and its
base is relatively high; therefore, it seldom seriously
hampers aircraft operations.
Another kind of stratocumulus forms at the top of
the turbulent friction layer which usually reaches
from the ground. up to approximately 3000 ft. The
physical structure of these stratocumulus clouds, i.e.,
their thickness, temperature, liquid water content and
drop size, is very similar to that of the anticyclonic
87
stratus. However, a fundamental difference exists
between anticyclonic stratus and stratocumulus, and
between cyclonic stratus and friction layer strata-
cumulus. The two latter types are formed by lifting
of the air caused by convergence or convection,
respectively. The dynamic process in the mechanism
of formation of the convergence type and friction
layer type clouds is missing in the case of the anti-
cyclonic stratus and stratocumulus. The experiments
which are described in this report were carried out in
both anticyclonic and cyclonic stratocumulus, and
they show that among the many individual features
of these clouds, three are apparently of special im-
portance: (1) temperature; (2) depth; and (3) state
of convection.
4. Flight instrumentation
i. Meteorological instrumentation. One, sometimes two,
B-17 aircraft were used for the experiments. The
following instruments were aboard at least one of the
two planes:
1.Aerograph
2. Recording thermometer designed to measure
true temperature inside clouds
3. Recording visibility meter
4. Droplet and ice crystal sampling device
5. Recording water content meter.
ii. Seeding equipment
(a) Dry Ice Dispenser. In order to disperse large
amounts of dry ice in a period of several minutes, it
was necessary to obtain an automatic dry ice crusher.
A crusher of the "Hail-Queen" type, from the Clawson
Manufacturing Company, Flagstown, New Jersey was
used. This crusher was mounted on the floor of the
radio compartment of the B-17 aircraft. The crushed
dry ice was discharged into the air through a funnel.
After several experiments it was found that the best
way to disperse dry ice from the plane was to crush
the dry ice prior to the flight and store it in canvas
bags. During the seeding runs the bags were emptied
into the crusher. This was necessary because the
crushed dry ice forms lumps while stored in bags.
(b) Silver iodide dispenser. In order to avoid having
an open flame on the aircraft an Agi-acetone solution
was simply sprayed into the cloud. While this pro-
cedure seemed to work it was soon abandoned since
the output was insufficient. Later, an 8 per cent Agl
solution was sprayed through a paint sprayer nozzle
which was gravity fed and mounted behind the tail
outside the airplane (fig. 1, 2). Compressed acetylene
gas was used for spraying and the mixture was
88 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS
FIG. 1. Silver iodide burner in tail of B-17 aircra ft.
ignited through sparks from an oil burner transformer.
With this arrangement it was possible to disperse up
to 50 gm Agl per min or 0.75 qt of solution per min.
(c) Tanks with compressed gases. Highly compressed
gases like air, nitrogen, or helium, were used as well
as Freon. While this method worked rather well in
the laboratory, success during the flight experiments
was poor, and the method was discarded. Either the
number of ice crystals formed by adiabatic cooling,
after the pressure release, was too small compared to
the high speed of the plane or the air temperature
was too high at the location where the gas was
released because of heating by the exhaust gases.
iii. Photography. The photographer, the photographic
equipment, and the films were furnished by the Re-
production Branch, Evans Signal Laboratory. Tests
using different films showed that the cloud pictures
taken with infrared sensitive film were most satisfac-
tory. Therefore, this type of film was used when
available. Most pictures were taken from the waist of
the plane with a K-20 or Speed Graphic camera.
However, both the nose compartment and the tail
compartment served as vantage points for some
pictures. The cloud photographs were usually taken
in pairs so that they would be suitable for viewing
with a stereoscope. The stereoscopic pairs were taken
VoL. 2, No. 11
while the plane was flying a straight course, at inter-
vals ranging from 5 to 15 sec when flying at 230 ft per
sec which corresponds to a base line of 1150 to 3450 ft.
The stereoscopic views of the cloud decks proved to
be very useful for the analysis of the results. With
this method it was possible to detect and explain
peculiarities in the development of seeded areas which
otherwise would have escaped attention. The dis-
advantage of this method is that these pictures have
to be viewed with stereoscopic equipment; therefore,
they are not shown in this paper.
5. Flight plans
Whenever it was possible, two aircraft were used
during the experiments. After an area had been seeded,
the laboratory plane flew through the seeded portion of
the cloud deck. This maneuver was made in order to
study the development of the seeded area by means
of ice crystal investigation, visibility observa tions, etc.
The second plane flew several thousand feet above
the cloud deck to select sui table seeding areas and to
secure a photographic record of the entire area. Most
of the time only one aircraft was availa ble because
trouble in starting the engines was experienced during
cold winter weather. In these cases the cloud deck was
jULY 1957 H. J. AUFM KAMPE,].].
not penetrated, and after seeding, the plane climbed
to the photographing altitude.
When the weather situation and observations in-
dicated stable cloud decks within a radius of 200 to
400 mi, a flight plan was filed. It was necessary to
select cloud fields that were not near airways because
changes of altitude during the experiment interfered
with the safety along airways, and too long a waiting
time was required to obtain clearance for a new flight
level. It is obvious that such a project requires a very
close cooperation between the pilot and the scientists.
The very excellent cooperation which the authors
have experienced with the pilots, navigators, and
crew members of the Air Force Flight Test Division,
Griffiss Air Force Base, Rome, New York, can only be
characterized by the term "teamwork," and this
cooperation is consequently an integral part of the
success of this project.
6. Exploratory experiments
To find the most efficient way to dissipate a cloud
area, some exploratory experiments were conducted
in the laboratory and in the atmosphere to determine
the necessary concentration and size of ice particles.
i. Dry ice seeding. To measure the number of ice
crystals formed by a dry ice pellet falling through a
cloud, subcooled clouds were studied at different
temperatures in a cold chamber of 8 X 8 X 7 ft size.
FrG. 2. Silver iodide burner in operation.
KELLY, AND H. K. WEICKMANN 89
Then one piece of dry ice (pea to cherry size) was
dropped to the floor from the 7 ft ceiling. It was
covered as soon as it hit the floor, and thus it was
within the subcooled cloud only about 0. 7 sec. The
mean fall velocity was 12ft per sec, roughly one-third
of the terminal velocity. A piece of dry ice the size of
a cherry created the following concentrations of ice
nuclei at various temperatures (the concentration
was estimated after the nuclei had been uniformly
dispersed throughout the chamber):
Temp. °C Number per em'
- 2 .01
- 6 10
-10 100
(A piece the size of a pea created about 10 ice crystals
per cm3 at -9C.) These values of ice nuclei concen-
tration may vary by a factor of ten. It should be
noted that the concentration of ice crystals which is
formed by a dry ice pellet falling through a subcooled
cloud decreases very rapidly as the temperature rises.
Preliminary seeding experiments indicated that a
seeded line would usually spread until it was about
2 mi wide. Since 1 lb of crushed dry ice contains about
200 pellets, the final concentration of ice crystals in a
strip 2 mi wide at -10C would be of the order of 10
per I if the seeding rate was 1 lb per mi and if the dry
ice pellets penetrated the whole depth of the cloud.
Under these conditions, if the liquid water content
90 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS
were 0.2 gm per m 3 , and 0.2 gm per m 3 were also avail-
able in vapor form (due to the difference between
water and ice saturation), a plate crystal of approxi-
mately 0.67 mm diameter at an assumed thickness
of 0.1 mm should form. If the seeding rate were
increased to 10 lb per mi, the concentration of ice
crystals would increase tenfold but each crystal would
now be about 0.33 mm in diameter. Although these
crystals are smaller the drag is correspondingly
smaller, consequently the crystals fall with about the
same speed as those 0.67 mm in diameter. Thus, the
time required to produce a hole in stable stratus does
not depend critically on the seeding rate. However,
in the case of stratocumulus with small updrafts
present the higher seeding rate is advantageous be-
cause the larger number of ice crystals will absorb
the water vapor before it forms droplets that grow
and fall out rapidly. If the ice crystals in strata-
cumulus clouds are too few, their effective cross
section is too small to absorb all the water vapor,
and consequently water droplets form between the
ice crystals.
ii. Silver iodide seeding. In order to get an idea of
the ice crystal concentration in a cloud after a silver
iodide seeding, a simple calculation was carried out
based on earlier laboratory experiments (H. J. aufm
Kampe and H. K. Weickmann 1951). In these experi-
ments it was found that with 5 X 10-5 gm Agi, 10 7 ice
crystals were produced at -10C and 10 5 ice crystals
at - 5C. Assuming a seeded line spreads to a width
of 2 mi, the average concentration of ice crystals in a
cloud layer 1500 ft thick would be about 5 per I at
-10C and 0.05 per I at - 5C if the seeding rate were
approximately 100 gm Agi per min or roughly 0.8 qt
of 8 per cent Agl solution per min. The concentration
of 5 ice crystals per liter is comparable to that ob-
tained with dry ice seeded at a rate of 1 lb per mi.
This calculation indicates that the output of a
silver iodide burner in an airplane must be much
higher (by a factor of approximately 100) than that
of the burners currently used in seedings from the
ground, to achieve results comparable to those ob-
tained with relatively small dry ice seeding rates.
7. Representation of data
A total of 49 seeding flights were completed; 35 of
these were worth evaluation. Some typical examples
are listed chronologically in the Appendix. For each
-experiment the following information is furnished:
(1) The site of seeding; (2) the synoptic weather
situation at the seeding site; (3) the cloud data in
the form of aerological soundings and photographs;
{4) information on the seeding agent, the seeding
VoL. 2, No. 11
pattern, the seeding rate, and the seeding time; and
(5) results of the experiments.
The nearest radiosonde data and upper level winds
were plotted whenever these data were available. The
vertical extent of the seeded cloud layer is indicated
by a cross hatched area, and temperatures measured
during the experimental flights are shown by crosses
and are listed in the description of the experiment.
Sometimes the measured temperatures and cloud
data do not agree very well with the soundings. This
is not necessarily attributable to errors in the data,
but may result from the distance between the aircraft
and the sounding station and from the difference in
time at which the data were obtained. Furthermore,
if the clouds formed at an inversion discrepancies
may result from oscillations of this inversion. Several
cases of such oscillations were experienced; an espe-
cially pronounced case is discussed in the Appendix,
section viii. The development of the seeded area is
described and some observations of more general
interest for cloud physics are presented. Photographs
illustrate results of the seeding experiments. The
time and altitude in the legends of photographs are
the time at which and the altitude from which the
pictures were taken. Highlights of the results of the
seeding experiments are discussed in the next section.
8. Results of dry ice seeding experiments
Figure 3 shows the development of the seeded areas
in 27 experiments. The abscissa represents the time
in minutes after seeding, and the ordinate represents
the depth of the cloud deck. If there are several cloud
decks, the ordinate is the distance from the base of
the lowest cloud layer to the top of the highest deck.
A heavy black dot along a horizontal line indicates
the time at which ground could be first observed
through the seeded area. It does not indicate, however,
the complete clearance of the seeded area. A circle
around a dot indicates that the seeding was done at a
higher rate (see legend). It may be that ground could
have been observed 5 to 10 min earlier, since the
airplane did not fly directly over the area all of the
time. This is especially true for the cases with high
seeding rates because these experiments usually in-
volved the seeding of large areas. The development of
the area after ground was observed is indicated by
the extension of the line to the right of the dot. The
end of the line indicates the time at which observation
ceased. If the area closed in again, the line is termi-
nated with the letter C. If the area started to close in
again, the line is terminated by an arrow with the
letter C. If the whole cloud deck in the vicinity started
to break up, the line is terminated by an arrow and
}ULY 1957 H. J. AUFM KAMPE, J. J. KELLY, AND H. K. WEICKMANN 91

e- GROUND VISIBLE (AVERAGE RATE OF SEEDING 2.9 LBS.

DRY ICE PER MILE).
@-GROUND VISIBLE (AVERAGE RATE OF SEEDING 14.1 LBS.
DRY ICE PER MILE).
---f C - SEEDED AREA HAS CLOSED IN AGAIN.
___.,. B -CLOUD DECK IS BREAKING UP, END OF OBSERVATION
OF SEEDED AREA.
? -DEVELOPMENT NOT OBSERVED.
6000 ...,.II
?
t-
LLI //
~ 5000
v
/
z

~ 4000
~ v
...J
// STILL OPEN
AFTEi 86 MIN •

9 3000
0 ..:..

c ?
(.)
(
= ,. =
=
.a
STILL OPEN
=
~

/
~ AFTER 90 MIN.
0 c.!- c
2000{ ? "
(/)
(/) /
'i" c
=B
LLI
z / r B
:::.:: _e
(.) 1000
::z:: /~.
,!, r B
c STILL
t-
/ .... B
OPEN AFTER
90 MIN.

0
Agi
I
10 20 30 40 50 60 70

TIME AFTER SEEDING IN MINUTES

FIG. 3. Life history of 27 seeding experiments.

the letter B; if further development of the seeded
area was not observed, the line is terminated by a
question mark.
In view of the limitations of the available data, the
following conclusions, drawn from fig. 3, must be con-
sidered tentative. (1) The thicker the cloud deck, the
more time will elapse before the ground can be seen.
A certain minimum time appears to be required,
tentatively indicated by the dashed line. (2) For a
cloud depth of 2000 ft, ground can be seen through
the seeded area about 30 min after seeding, on the
average. (3) Almost all cloud decks of thickness less
than 1500 ft would have broken up anyway. (4) Holes
produced in cloud decks thicker than 1500 ft usually
started to close in again, especially if convective
activity existed. The ground sometimes was obscured
again only a few minutes after it was first observed.
In a few instances, the ground was never seen at all.
Figure 4 shows the rate of lateral spreading of a
seeding line. The mean value of all these points is
shown by the square which indicates that a seeded
line is 2 mi wide on the average (i.e., has spread 1 mi
to either side), 27 min after seeding. Since this is
nearly the same as the time which must elapse (on
the average) before the ground is visible through a
seeded cloud, it is advantageous to seed large areas
in lines 2-3 mi apart. If this is done, the ground shouldi
be visible as soon as the modified areas from these
lines have joined into one large area. Although there
seems to be a general trend toward a greater time
interval for the wider tracks (indicated by the dashed
line), the points scatter considerably. This may be
92 METEOROLOGICAL
attributed to differences in the efficiency of the
mechanisms which cause lateral spreading in different
cloud types. There are some cloud decks in which a
seeded line spreads out steadily and continuously into
one large field, whereas in others the modified area is
irregularly distributed left and right of the seeding
path. The first type occurs in the relatively thin and
stable anticyclonic stratus or stratocumulus. It occurs
under an inversion or at least under a layer with a
small temperature lapse rate, in areas with more or
less divergent airflow. Typical cases of this type are
documented in the Appendix, sections iii, iv, v, vii,
and ix. The second type was typical of thicker and
more convective cloud decks, which often occur in
areas which are under cyclonic influence. Typical
results of seeding experiments on these cloud decks
are given in the Appendix, sections i, vi, and viii.
The effect of such convective activity was observed
on 29 November. 1952 when a line of clouds was
seeded. On this day a stratocumulus deck was seeded
first. After this experiment was finished some dry ice
remained; this dry ice was then dispersed at a rate of
about 3 lb per mi for 8 mi along the middle ridge of a
cloud line consisting of subcooled water clouds. After
the seeding was finished nothing happened immedi-
ately, but 9 min later ice crystals appeared left and
right of the cloud line, but none appeared underneath.
The cloud line itself was not modified. This experi-
ment indicated that the circulation which formed the
cloud line consisted of an updraft under the ridge,
diverging horizontal flow near the top of the cloud line
and down drafts at some distance left and right of
the cloud edges. The velocity in the updraft must
have been higher than the fall velocity of the generated
ice crystals, which was about 0.5 m per sec. Thus,
they did not stay in the cloud and were carried away
horizontally.
3 ·rr
~
0 XX
~
a::
1-
2
vv
I
¢.:
0 f/)
ILl ILl I
0 ..J I X
ILl
ILl
f/)
~
z
.,
u.. I
0 X
J:
93: 0 10 20 30
TIME AFTER SEEDING IN
FIG. 4. Lateral spreading of seeded lines.
MONOGRAPHS VoL. 2, No. 11
An intense circulation such as this one is probably
responsible for the irregular displacement of a seeded
line in a convective cloud deck. The generated crystals
are carried away from the cloud forming regions to
regions of subsidence where they can act effectively.
Consequently, it must be expected that the seeding
of a convective cloud deck will result in scattered holes
through which the ground will be visible temporarily.
In the case of thin cloud decks in which the circula-
tion is less intense, the velocity of the updrafts does
not exceed the fall velocity of the ice crystals. Under
these circumstances the crystals remain in the cloud
forming parts long enough to modify these parts,
although they are gradually carried away horizontally.
This accounts for the steady spreading of a modified
area in thin cloud layers.
9. Results of silver iodide seeding experiments
The flight experiments confirmed the conclusion
reached from laboratory experiments that a seeding
rate of 1-2 lb dry ice per mi was sufficient for clearing
part of a cloud deck only when this cloud deck was
very stable and relatively thin (approximately 1000
ft, see section ii, Appendix). In most cases such a
small seeding rate either did not show any cloud
dissipation, or the seeded area rapidly closed in again
(section i, Appendix), unless it was seeded with as
much as 30 lb dry ice per mi. On the other hand these
high seeding rates did not overseed thin and stable
cloud decks, but cleared the area so that the ground
could be seen very well after about 30 min (see
experiment of 20 January 1952).
Silver iodide was used as a seeding agent during
nine flights. The number of flights is not sufficient to
appraise fully the effect of Agi as a seeding agent.
However, valuable information was collected during
those flights. After the spray technique was abandoned
due to insufficient output of Agi the less explosive
I propane gas was tested for atomizing and burning a
~
Agi-acetone solution, but difficulties of igniting and
X burning during flight were encountered. Therefore,
acetylene gas was used; this necessitated stricter
safety rules. B. Vonnegut 1 had previously used glow-
ing charcoal impregnated with Agi as seeding agent
in his experiments; this method was discarded for
safety reasons. It should be mentioned that the seed-
ing rate used in Vonnegut's experiments corresponded
very closely to the high seeding rate used in the
40 50 experiments reported here.
MINUTES 1 Vonnegut, B., 1949: Silver Iodide Smoke. Proj. Cirrus occ.
Rep. No.lJ, General Electric Research Laboratory, Schenectady,
N.Y.
jULY 1957 H. ]. AUFM KAMPE,].]. KELLY,
The silver iodide seeding procedure was as follows:
the aircraft flew 100 to 200 ft below the tops of the
clouds. After the seeding, it emerged from the clouds
and the results were observed. This procedure was
more involved than the method used for seeding with
dry ice, because entering and leaving the clouds
sometimes required a special flight clearance, and the
seeded area could not be found again.
Another factor should be mentioned when the
seeding agent is dispersed within the cloud; namely,
the combustion products in the exhaust gases may
seed the cloud if the latter has relatively low tempera-
ture. It appears that one such case occurred on 28
March 1952 when a cloud deck with a top temperature
of -14C was seeded. One flight leg 6 mi long was
seeded by spraying (not burning) 200 ml of a 3 per
cent Agl-acetone solution (ca. 1 gm Agl per mi). After
a 180-deg turn within the cloud, another leg was
seeded by opening the valve of a tank of helium which
was under a pressure of 2000 lb per sq in. Not only
the seeded legs but also the unseeded 180-deg turn
developed into a large ice cloud. Therefore it was
assumed that in this case neither silver iodide nor
helium produced the effect but the nucleation by the
exhaust. (The cloud deck broke up from natural
causes soon after seeding, and only the artificial ice
clouds were still visible for some time.)
It appears that one seeding flight yielded the best
comparison between the effectiveness of silver iodide
seeding and dry ice seeding. The result of this flight
(section ix, Appendix) was that at a temperature of
- 8.5C a dry ice seeding rate of 4 lb per mi was more
effective than a Agl seeding rate of 16 gm per mi. These
authors estimate that it would have required three to
five times the amount of Agl used to match the dry ice
seeding. Another seeding experiment on a very stable
and thin cloud deck was carried out on 9 February
1954 with a seeding rate of 2 gm Agl per mi. The lowest
temperature was -..,.13C. In this deck several small
holes were produced along the seeding track; ground
was seen through these holes but the seeding never
spread, and the holes filled up rather quickly.
Seedings carried out on 2 March 1954 and 27 March
1954 indicate that the effectivencess of Agl is small
even at temperatures slightly below -10C, especially
if the cloud deck shows convective activity. This was
the case on both days. Although the development of
ice crystals could be observed, their number was so
small that it would have been insufficient for cloud
dissipation.
AND H. K. WEICKMANN 93
10. Summary and conclusions
Seeding experiments were carried out in subcooled
stratus type clouds during 1952-1955 using dry ice
and silver iodide as seeding agents. The experiments
yielded the following results and conclusions:
i. Dry ice seeding
1. It is possible to modify a subcooled cloud layer
to such an extent that ground becomes visible through
at least parts of it.
2. The temperature of the cloud deck should not
be above -4C, particularly if the cloud deck is thick.
3. In a thin cloud deck, 1000 to 2000 ft thick with
no appreciable internal convection, an area of any
size and shape can be modified so that the ground is
visible through relatively large areas.
4. In thicker cloud decks holes with diameters of
one to several miles may be made by seeding. However,
the size and location of the holes cannot be controlled
as well as in the case of thin clouds.
5. Overseeding is not as common as is generally
assumed.
6. A thin cloud deck may be cleared with a seeding
rate of 20 lb dry ice per mi as well as with 1 lb per mi.
7. A convective cloud deck, however, may be under-
seeded with a seeding rate as high as 5 to 10 lb per mi.
8. On the average, a seeded line spreads roughly 1
mi to either side approximately within 0.5 hr.
9. On the average, ground can be seen through some
parts of the seeded area 0.5 hr after seeding.
10. In order to clear a large area, it is best to seed
parallel lines 3 mi apart.
11. Depending on the natural lapse rate, the insola-
tion, and the steepening of the lapse rate due to the
descending ice crystals, cumulus clouds sometimes
form in the modified area as a consequence of seeding.
ii. Silver iodide seeding
1. Silver iodide is effective as a cloud seeding agent
for the purpose of dissipating subcooled clouds; how-
ever, it is less effective than dry ice.
2. Approximately 16 gm Agl seeded over 1 mi cor-
respond to a rate less than 5 lb dry ice per mi. This is
in agreement with data given by B. Vonnegut who
seeded with Agl-impregnated charcoal.
3. The threshold temperature at which noteworthy
cloud modification can be achieved appears to be
approximately -10C rather than -5C.
4. The seeding effectiveness can probably be im-
proved if the output of Agl crystals can be increased
to 100 gm Agl per mi or more.
94 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS VoL. 2, No. 11

APPENDIX

DESCRIPTION OF TYPICAL SEEDING EXPERIMENTS

I. SEEDING EXPERIMENT 3 DECEMBER 1952

1. Site of Seeding: 150 to 200 mi E of Presque Isle,

Maine.
2. Weather Situation: High over Hudson Bay; anti-
cyclonic isobaric curvature at site.
3. Cloud Data: Figure Sa.
Type: Convective stratocumulus fig. Sb-5c.
Temperature: Base: -6C.
Top: -9C.
Depth : 2000 ft.
4. Seeding Data:
Agent: Dry ice.
Pattern: "Figure eight" pattern, diameter of
circles 3 mi.
Seeding Rate: First circle with 4 lb per m1;
second circle with 1 lb per mi.
Time: 1200 EST.
5. Results: Ten minutes after seeding, the "Figure
eight" pattern was recognizable although rather
irregular in shape (fig. 6a-6d). The second
circle (foreground) was not as well developed
as the first. Fifteen minutes later the ground
was seen through some small parts of the first
circle. The second circle was no longer visible
since it had been filled in completely by water
clouds. The seeded area of the first circle
appeared as a doughnut with water clouds in
the center; however, the circular pattern be-
came quite irregular 21 min after seeding
(fig. 7a-7d). The circular cloud pattern in the
foreground is indicative of the convective state
of the cloud deck and is most probably a
cumulus cloud pushing through the deck.
Water clouds started to fill the first circle 35
min after seeding, and 25 min later the entire
seeded pattern was covered with new water
clouds.
}ULY 1957 H. J. AUFM KAMPE, J. J . KELLY, AND H . K. WEICKMANN 95

(b)

....
......... (a)
0
0
0

(c)

FIG. 5. Cloud data 3 December 1952. (a) Aerological sounding Caribou, Maine 1000E. (b), (c) Clouds at seeding site.

(a) (a)

(b) (b)

(c) (c)

(d) (d)

FIG. 6. Pattern seen from 10,000 ft lO min after seeding FIG. 7. Pattern seen from 10,000 ft 21 min after seeding 3
3 December 1952 1208E. December 1952 1221E. Note irregular shape of the "figure eight"
pattern.
96 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS VoL. 2, No. 11

II. SEEDING EXPERIMENT 4 DECEMBER 1952

1, Site of Seeding: Presque Isle, Maine.

2. Weather Situation: High over Hudson Strait;
anticyclonic isobaric curvature at site.
3. Cloud Data: Figure 8.
Type: Stable stratocumulus.
Temperature: Base: -11C.
Top: -12C.
Depth : 700 ft.
4. Seeding Data:
Agent: Dry ice.
Pattern: Figure 9. C, D, and E 2 mi apart.
Seeding Rate: Leg A (1.5 mi long) 7 lb per mi.
Leg B (1.5 mi long) 7 lb per mi
(seeded with dry ice dust).
Leg C (6 mi long) 2 lb per mi.
Leg D (6 mi long) 6 lb per mi.
LegE (6 mi long) 6 lb per mi.
(Legs A, C, D, E seeded with
cherry-sized pellets).
Time: 1107 to 1117; average 1112 EST.
5. Results: The seeding experiment was designed to
answer the following questions: (1) What
difference will there be in the final appearance
of two cloud areas seeded with different
amounts of dry ice? (2) Does dry ice dust,
seeded from about 1000 ft above the cloud top,
evaporate before it enters the cloud deck?
Approximately 10 min after seeding legs A
and B, both looked almost exactly alike (fig.
10); the same was true for seeded lines C, D,
and E. Approximately 20 min after being
seeded, C, D, and E had nearly joined (fig. 11),
and the ground is almost visible through all
seeded areas. In another 10 min C, D, and E
had joined to become one large snowing area
through which the ground could be seen very
easily. The area stayed open and expanded;
later on in the day the cloud deck broke up
gradually.
jULY 1957 H . J. AUFM KAMPE, J. J . KELLY, AN D H. K. WEICKM ANN 97

12

10

8
A B c D E
...
...
6
......
0
0
'?

FIG. 9. Seeding pattern 4 December 1952.

FIG. 8. Aerologica l sounding Caribou, Maine

4 December 1952 1000E.

FIG. 10. Part of seeded areas seen from 9000 ft 10 min a fter seeding
4 December 1952 11 26E.

F IG. 11. Three lines joined a p proxima tely 20 min after seeding.
Photographed from 9000 ft 4 December 1952 1135E.
98 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS VoL. 2, No. 11

III. SEEDING EXPERIMENT 20 JANUARY 1953

1. Site of Seeding: Presque Isle, Maine.

2. Weather Situation: High over James Bay; anti-
cyclonic isobaric curvature at site.
3. Cloud Data: Figure 12.
Type: Stratocumulus.
Temperature: Base: -10C.
Top: -11.5C.
Depth: 600 ft.
4. Seeding Data :
Agent: Dry ice.
Pattern: Two parallel legs and one perpendicular
to these.
Seeding Rate: Two parallel legs seeded with 22
lb per mi; single leg seeded with 3 lb per mi.
Time: 1039-1048; average 1044 EST.
5. Results: This experiment was planned to deter-
mine any differences in the effect of seeding
with small and large amounts of dry ice. The
distance between the two legs was extended
to 3 mi; they were then seeded with 22 lb per
mi. Cloud puffs showed 5 min after seeding
that rose about 300 ft above the cloud deck.
This was practically the only difference be-
tween the legs seeded with 22 lb per mi and
the one seeded with 3 lb per mi; 28 min after
seeding the two parallel legs had joined.
Ground was seen equally well through leg
seeded with 3 lb per mi as through the two
legs seeded with 22 lb per mi (fig. 13).
jULY 1957 H. J. AUFM KAMPE, J. J. KELLY, AND H. K. WEICKMANN 99

"'
cr
"'
!!?
..J
..J
::1!

FIG. 12. Aerological sounding Caribou, Maine

20 January 1953 1000E.

FIG. 13. Cleared area seeded with 22 lb dry ice per mi (foreground) ; cleared leg seeded with 3 lb
dry ice per mi (background). Photographed from 17,000 ft 20 J a nuary 1953 1118E.
100 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS VoL. 2, No. 11

IV. SEEDING EXPERIMENT 19 FEBRUARY 1953

1. Site of Seeding: Detroit, Michigan.

2. Weather Situation: Stationary front north of
Detroit; anticyclonic isobaric curvature at site.
3. Cloud Data: Figure 14.
Type: Extensive solid stratocumulus fields sepa-
rated by clear areas.
Temperature: Base: -8C.
Top: -9C.
Depth : 1000 ft.
4. Seeding Data:
Agent: Dry ice.
Pattern: Three legs, 6 mi long and 3 mi apart.
Seeding Rate: 10 lb per mi.
Time: 1550-1602; average 1556 CST.
5. Results: Cloud puffs rose to about 300 ft above
the cloud deck shortly after seeding; 24 min
after seeding, the ridges of water clouds be-
tween the seeded legs had almost dissipated
(fig. 15) ; 18 min later the edges of the seeded
area and the lines along which the three legs
joined were clear, and the ground could be
seen very well (fig. 16). Also the rest of the
seeded area was transparent (due to the photo-
graphic process this cannot be seen).
}ULY 1957 H. ]. AUFM KAMPE,]. J. KELLY, AND H. K. WEICKMANN 101

•2

10

..
8
"'"' ...w
!!! w
-'

=
:0
6
81
!?
4

F IG. 14. Aerological sounding Selfridge AFB, Michigan

19 February 1953 lOOOE.

FIG. 15. Three legs joined 24 min after seeding. Seeded area approximately 100
sq mi, photographed from 21,500 ft 19 Febr uary 1953 1618E.

FIG. 16. Ground seen from 20,000 ft through seeded area

19 Februar y 1953 1636E.
102 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS VoL. 2, No. 11

V. SEEDING EXPERIMENT 16 MARCH 1953

1. Site of Seeding: Syracuse, N.Y.

2. Weather Situation: The seeding site was situated
between a high over the southern part of the
United States and a low over Quebec, Canada.
Isobaric curvature was neutral. The tempera-
ture-height curves changed remarkably during
the day (fig. 17) ; at 1000 EST the lapse rate
was weak up to 12,000 ft; at the time of the
experiment (crosses) a strong subsidence in-
version had formed and the atmosphere had
become unstable from the cloud base to about
6000 ft; above this altitude the atmosphere
was very stable.
3. Cloud Data: Figure 17.
Type: Stratocumulus. The convective lower
layer reached to about 6500 ft, whereas the
stable cloud deck reached from this altitude to
8200 ft.
Temperature: Base: -1.3C.
Top: -lOC.
Depth: 5700 ft.
4. Seeding Data:
Agent: Dry ice.
Pattern: Two legs 6 mi long and 3 mi apart.
Seeding Rate: 30 lb per mi.
Time: 1618-1623; average 1620 EST.
5. Results: Cloud puffs appeared over seeded legs
within a few minutes after seeding; 30 min
after seeding the entire seeded area was filled
with ice crystals (fig. 18). These ice clouds
descended giving the appearance of two large
bowls. Figure 19, 25 min later, shows the edge
of the hole in the upper cloud deck which had
been dissipated ; in the foreground the top of
the lower cumulus-type layer is shown which
was not appreciably affected by seeding be-
cause of convective activity. Approximately
58 min after seeding, the ground could be
seen between the lower cumuli (fig. 20).
JULY 1957 H. J. AUFM KAMPE,].]. KELLY, AND H. K. WEICKMANN 103

..
"'"'
!!'
....
......
~
w
~

j 0
0
~

FIG. 17. Aerologica l sounding Rome, New York FIG. 18. Seeded area photographed from 14,000 ft 30 min after seeding 16 March
16 March 1953 1000E. 1953 1651E. Ice crystals descending from seeded areas.

FIG. 19. Upper stable cloud deck has been dissipated. Photograph
from 86~0 ft 16 March 1953 1716E.

FIG. 20. Ground seen from 7500 ft through seeded a rea 16 March 1953 1719E.
104 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS VoL. 2, No. 11

VI. SEEDING EXPERIMENT 17 MARCH 1953

1. Site of Seeding: Rome, New York.

2. Weather Situation: High over Great Lakes; anti-
cyclonic isobaric curvature over site.
3. Cloud Data: Figure 21.
Type: Stratocumulus deck with base at 5000
and top at 6000 ft. Underneath this deck were
cumuli with bases around 2500 ft; some
cumuli penetrated the stratocumulus deck and
rose to about 6500 ft which indicated convec-
tive activity.
Temperature: Base: -7.5C.
Top: -7.5C.
Depth: 1300 ft.
4. Seeding Data:
Agent: Dry ice.
Pattern: Three parallel legs 6 mi long and 2 mi
apart.
Seeding Rate: First leg: 8 lb per mi; second and
third leg, 25 lb per mi.
Time: 1136-1142; average 1139 EST.
5. Results: Ten minutes after seeding, the second
and third legs had already joined; however,
the shape of the area became more and more
disturbed and did not develop into a regular
square such as had occurred in cloud decks
with no convective activity. The first leg
(seeded at one-third the rate used for the
other two legs) spread out more slowly, and
25 min after seeding there was still a small
water cloud ridge between the first and second
leg (fig. 22). At the same time new cumuli
formed in the seeded area. Forty minutes after
seeding, the ground could easily be seen
through some parts of the seeded area (fig.
23); however, the adjacent cloud deck had
also started to dissipate by that time.
jULY 1957 H. J. AUFM KAMPE, J. J. KELLY, AND H. K. WEICKMAN N 105

"'...cr ....
"'"'
!!'
_,
_, 800 ~

"' 0
0
'?

900

FIG. 21. Aerological sounding from aircraft 17 March 1953

1020-1318E.

FIG. 22. Seeded area seen from 14,000 ft 25 min after seeding
17 March 1953 1105E.

FIG. 23 . Ground seen from 14,000 ft through convective

part of seeded area 17 March 1953 1120E.
106 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS VoL. 2, No. 11

VII. SEEDING EXPERIMENT 12 DECEMBER 1953

1. Site of Seeding: Thunder Bay, Michigan.

2. Weather Situation: High pressure ridge, anti-
cyclonic curvature of isobars at the ground
and 700mb.
3. Cloud Data: Figure 24.
Type: Stable, slightly convective stratocumulus.
Temperature: Top: -9.2C.
Base: -7.5C.
Depth: 2500 ft.
4. Seeding Data:
Agent: Dry ice.
Pattern: Three legs, each 9 m1 long and 3 m1
apart.
Seeding Rate: 12 lb per mi.
Seeding Time: 1130 to 1142; average 1136 CST.
5. Results: Figures 25-27 show the development of
the seeded area into a very large clear opening
within 75 min; 90 min after seeding, the area
was still free of clouds. The ground could be
seen approximately 40 min after seeding. The
seeded area drifted slowly with the wind pre-
vailing at the altitude of the cloud layer.
jULY 1957 H. J. AUFM KAMPE, J. J. KELLY, AND H. K. WEICKMANN 107

"'"'
<! I-

"':::;
.J "'..."'
i 0
0
0

FIG. 24. Aerological sounding Alpena, Michigan FrG. 25. Seeded area from 15,000 ft 21 min after seeding
12 December 1953 1200C. 12 December 1953 1157E.

FIG. 26. Seeded area from 18,000 ft 36 min after seeding

12 December 1953 1212E.

FIG. 27. Seeded area from 18,000 ft 70 min after Eeeding

12 December 1953 1246E.
108 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS VoL. 2, No. 11

VIII. SEEDING EXPERIMENT 21 JANUARY 1954

1. Site of Seeding : Utica, New York.

2. Weather Situation: West side of shallow trough;
anticyclonic curvature of isobars at the ground;
cyclonic at 700 mb.
3. Cloud Data: Figure 28.
Type: Stratocumulus with wavy surface; dis-
tance from ridge to ridge about 3 mi; height
difference from mountain to valley about 600ft.
Temperature: Top: -6. 7C.
Depth: Unknown.
4. Seeding Data:
Agent: Dry ice.
Pattern: Three legs each 9 mi long and 3 mi apart.
Seeding Rate: 13 lb per mi.
Time: 1159 EST to 1211 EST; average 1205 EST.
5. Results: Figure 29 shows the first leg 3 min after
seeding; 18 min after seeding, the legs had
spread well (fig. 30); 21 min after seeding, the
third leg became narrow in the middle due to
newly formed clouds in this part and was cut
in half after 25 min-the cut-off part finally
moving away after 38 min. After 42 min the
ground could be seen through part of the
seeded area (fig. 31) but later this opening
filled. The separation of the third leg into two
parts was due to an extended ridge of new
convective clouds which had formed parallel
to the general orientation of the waves. The
cloud forming process was more intense than
the cloud destroying process during seeding,
and the new clouds pushed the ice crystals
aside in much the same way as it happens to
the left and right of a seeded cloud line in a
convective cloud deck.
jULY 1957 H. ]. AUFM KAMPE, J. J. KELLY, AND H. K. WEICKMANN 109

"'"'<
"'...::;
i

FIG. 28. Aerological sounding Utica, New York FrG. 29. First leg 3 min after seeding. Photographed from 6500 ft
21 January 1954 1200E. 21 January 1954 1205E. Note wavy cloud top.

FrG. 30. Seeded area seen from 14,500 ft 18 min after seeding
21 January 1954 1229E

Fro 31. Ground visible from 14,500 ft through some parts of seeded area
42 min after seeding 21 J anuary 1954 1253E.
110 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS
IX. SEEDING EXPERIMENT 30 MARCH 1954
1. Site of Seeding: Rome, New York.
2. Weather Situation: Cold anticyclone over major
part of the United States; seeding site located
on the eastern edge of the anticyclone; anti-
cyclonic curvature of surface isobars.
3. Cloud Data: Figure 32.
Type: Solid stratocumulus deck, non-convective.
Temperature: Top: - 8.5C.
'Base: -7.5C.
Depth : 900 ft.
4. Seeding Data:
Agent: Dry ice and Agl.
Pattern: Three legs each approximately 9 mi
long; separation between legs 3 mi. Legs 1 and
2 were seeded from 7700 ft.; leg 3 seeded in
cloud top.
Seeding Rate: Leg 1: 13 lb dry ice per mi.
Leg 2 : 4 lb dry ice per mi.
Leg 3: 16 gm Agl per mi.
Seeding Time : Leg 1 : 105 7-1100 EST.
Leg 2: 1102-1105 EST.
Leg 3: 1107-1110 EST.
5. Results: All three legs developed, but the leg
seeded with Agl developed considerably less
than those seeded with dry ice. Figure 33,
taken at 1125E, shows the Agl leg in the fore-
ground and the dry ice legs in the background.
Whereas each of the dry ice legs developed as
usual into a wide area of ice crystals, the Agl
area was still narrow and separated into
patches along the flight path. However, the
ground was already visible through some parts
of the Agl area at 1125E which was not true
for the dry ice areas. Although this fact could
VoL. 2, No. 11
have been due to "overseeding" of the dry ice
legs, stereoscopic analysis of the photographs
indicates that the ice crystals drifted away
from the Agl leg and underneath the dry ice
legs due to wind shear. Both dry ice legs were
over 2 mi wide 23 min after seeding, whereas
the width of the Agl leg was still less than 1
mi. The ground is visible through the Agl leg
and the second dry ice leg 40 min after seeding.
At that time the two dry ice legs started to
join whereas the Agl leg was still well sepa-
rated. Figure 34 shows the ground through
the Agl leg 45 min after seeding.
One hour after seeding the aircraft descended
through the seeded area to collect ice crystals.
Only shattered fragments of what seemed to
have been plate crystals could be obtained.
Exceptionally rich halo phenomena were ob-
served in the ice crystal clouds that formed
after the seeding consisting of 22-deg halo,
46-deg halo, mock suns of these two halos, and
an horizontal circle with two mock suns at
about 120 deg from the sun. Whereas the 22-
deg and 46-deg circle require ice crystals with
60-deg and 90-deg edges oriented at random,
all other halos require crystals having a
specific orientation. These crystals are most
probably thick plates which are expected at
temperatures around - 9C. Ice crystal replica
did not turn out well; however, hexagonal
plates and columns and peculiar triangular
shapes could be recognized.
The conclusion reached after this flight was
that vaporizing 16 gm of Agi was less effective
than a dry ice seeding rate of 4 lb per mi.
jULY 1957 H . J. AUFM KAMPE, J. J. KELLY, AND H. K. WEICKM ANN 111

"'
0:
<(
!!!
_,
_,
i

FIG. 32. Aerological sounding Rome, New York

30 March 1954 1015E.

FIG. 33. Seeded lines seen from 11,000 ft approximately 20 min after seeding
30 March 1954 1125E. Silver iodide leg in foreground; dry ice legs in background.

F IG. 34. Ground visible from 11,000 ft through silver iodide leg
45 min after seeding 30 March 1954 1150E.
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