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Book Reviews and Geopolitical Readings: On Global Economy
Book Reviews and Geopolitical Readings: On Global Economy
on global economy
and geopolitical
readings
ESADEgeo, under the supervision of Professor Javier Solana
and Professor Javier Santiso.
The Dictator’s Learning Curve: Inside
the Battle for Democracy
Dobson, William J. (2012). Doubleday.
“Today, the world’s dictators can surrender any hope of keeping
their worst deeds secret. The costs of tyranny have never been this
high.”
“Today’s dictators and authoritarians are far more sophisticated,
savvy and nimble than they once were.”
“Today’s dictators understand that in a globalized world the more
brutal forms of intimidation are best replaced with more subtle
forms of coercion.”
“Modern dictators understand it is better to appear to win a
contested election than to openly steal it.”
Summary
This book is the most up‐to‐date approach to modern authoritarian regimes. The new
breed of dictatorships — William J. Dobson singles out China, Russia, Venezuela,
Malaysia, Egypt — borrow democratic forms but remain wolves in sheep’s clothing.
Their leaders resort to the propaganda and repression (censorship, arrests, trials
without charges, and torture) typical of authoritarian regimes. However, they have
also learnt from the mistakes of earlier dictatorships and realise that keeping up
appearances is a survival skill. Murky elections, rigging the opposition, apparent
tolerance of dissidents while drowning out their messages, laws favouring the
governing party, false accusations and arrests are all grist to the mill in the
sophisticated strategies now pursued by the world’s 21st‐century totalitarian states.
Even so, dissidents are hard to silence. The author interviewed many of them —
politicians, young people, and experts — determined to bring about change, unmask
tyranny and turn their countries into true democracies. Although they hail from many
nations, they have shared viewpoints, thanks to today’s globalised world. The Arab
Spring was a clear turning point and the whole world looked on in wonder and
admiration as the Egyptian people’s carefully‐crafted revolution won the day. Here,
one should note that successful revolutions are the fruit of preparation, not
spontaneity. Tyrannies must first be undermined before they can be toppled.
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The Author
William J. Dobson is the Political and Foreign Affairs Editor of Slate magazine and was
Chief Editor of Foreign Policy between 2004 and 2008. Before that, he was Senior
Editor for Asia of Newsweek International and Foreign Affairs. His articles have also
been published in The New York Times, The Washington Post and The Wall Street
Journal. During the Arab Spring, Dobson sent daily stories from Cairo, writing on the
new authoritarian regimes for lead articles in The Washington Post. The Dictator’s
Learning Curve is a compilation of his exhaustive analysis on the subject.
However, they are not the only ones who have honed their skills. The reader gets a
broad overview of both the lead-up to the Arab revolts and their aftermath, told by
dissidents in each of the countries involved. These people fought for democracy by
outwitting tyranny with clever tactics that exploited their enemy’s weaknesses and
drew on new technologies. Dobson notes that authoritarian regimes try to halt
revolution by offering sops to public opinion. Yet he also notes that the opposition is
better organised than ever and has learnt that it is better to wear down the enemy
first before risking a pitched battle. As Dobson shows, this strategy makes it much
harder for authoritarian governments to hang on to power.
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Following the advent of democracy, Russia’s economy nose-dived. Putin was convinced
the only way out of the mire was to restore the communist model while giving it a new
gloss, avoiding the failed measures he observed from Dresden. e chose silent
coercion instead o high-pro ile repression ven so, the goal was the same — all
power to the nited ussia arty , Yedínaya Rossíya], a modern
variation of “All ower to The Soviets”
Putin centralised power in three stages. First, he attacked the oligarchs who had
become rich in post-Soviet Russia. Then he changed the rules so that he could appoint
and dismiss regional governors as he saw fit. Third, he took over the media — the
government now owns no less than 93% of the country’s newspapers and broadcasting
stations. Fourth, he set up sham opposition parties. Putin never loses sight of those
who he manipulates — a mistake the USSR paid for dearly. Government-sponsored
NGOs, GONGOs, are another ruse. These are used to legitimise Putin’s policies and
soak up international donations.
Russia is also one o the world’s most dangerous countries or journalists and
activists in the human rights field. They are systematically murdered while the state
makes sure their killers go unpunished. Corruption is rife (Russia came 143rd out of 182
countries in the 2011 International Transparency ranking) and vote-rigging in Russia is
as old as the hills. This corrupt system explains the swapping of powers between Putin
and Medvedev — a way to change the law and lengthen Putin’s term of office. As
Dobson notes, the proverbial hits the fan when election-rigging becomes plain to the
masses. That is when opposition voices make themselves heard — as the violent
demonstrations after the Duma elections in 2011 show.
Yevgenia Chirikova is another case in point. She went from being a mother of two
children to being one of the environmental activists most feared and threatened by
the Kremlin. Her battle to save the Khimki forest has turned into a battle against
corruption. Yevgenia exploits the weaknesses of modern authoritarian regimes,
resorting to the same legal system the government uses to de-legitimise its opponents.
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All these regimes are based on keeping the population politically apathetic. Regimes
tremble when citizens wake from their slumber.
Almost all of the country’s media was under Chávez’s control. This helped him stay in
power and gave him a platform from which to hurl threats and insults at his opponents
in the national broadcasting corporation. Internet was his next target: he had already
nationalised the country’s sole provider.
The Opposition
The opposition pins its hopes on Henrique Capriles. His task, as in other authoritarian
regimes, is a tough one. He suffers constant threats and the regime does its utmost to
stifle his voice. Capriles’ strategy has been to forge links with Venezuelans in every
corner of the country. As governor o the state o Miranda, he su ered the regime’s
wrath at first hand, following a government election victory. He has learned that it is
critical to maintain unity within the opposition and to offer solutions, rather than
simply launch constant criticisms of the demonstrably inefficient policies instated by
Chávez. Leopoldo López, Governor of Chacao, was one of the politicians Chávez tried
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to scratch from the electoral lists. The attempt failed when López successfully
appealed to the Inter-American Court of Human Rights.
Ayman Nour in Egypt and Anwar Ibrahim in Malaysia are more extreme cases. These
dissidents were imprisoned, tortured and kept in solitary confinement for championing
democracy. They are examples of the capital importance of patience: everyone knows
the battle will be a long one and that he who yields first is lost.
Young People
Young people are key in fighting authoritarian regimes and were the driving force
behind the Arab Spring. Ahmer Maher is one of the young, pro-democracy leaders
behind the Egyptian revolution. Students saw themselves as political outsiders with
unblemished reputations. They felt they were fighting for principles, not reward,
which earned them the respect and trust of the broader population. That is why they
are one of the biggest threats to authoritarian regimes.
The flame lit by the students kindled a revolution. In Venezuela, the flashpoint was
Chávez’s closure of Radio Caracas Televisión — thousands of young people took to the
streets to protest against the move. Chávez responded by calling yet another
referendum, this time to gain emergency powers to censor the media. The students
opted not to attack Chávez and instead to focus on the positive aspects of their
campaign. This wrong-footed Chávez, who ended up responding to his opponents’
messages instead of putting across his own. In short, the dissidents had gained the
initiative, the first step to success for youth movements.
The Kremlin stole a march on its opponents by creating its own youth movements —
such as Nashi — to defend Putin’s policies. A similar movement is The Young Guard,
which constantly harries journalists and dissidents.
Young Egyptians show just what well-organised youth can do. Highly-qualified
youngsters took to the streets to protest against a government incapable of offering
jobs and hope in a nose-diving economy. For the first time, an Arab dictator was
deposed by the people. Their use of the internet was key and forced the regime to
publicly threaten them and thereby lose legitimacy. The movement was not a
spontaneous flare: rather, it was the product of painstaking organisation. Each small
victory was weighed up as Egyptian youth bided its time, waiting for the right moment
to strike. This came with the revolution in Tunisia. Years of trial and error finally bore
fruit in February 2011.
Dobson stresses the way these groups drew inspiration rom Gene Sharp’s book From
Dictatorship to Democracy. He interviewed Sharp for his own work. In his book, a Bible
for the young dissidents, Sharp sets out the steps that all revolutions must take if
they are to overthrow tyranny. The need to organise first and non-violence are core
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principles. Many of the tools and strategies used in Egypt were also derived from this
volume, including techniques that kept the regime guessing and that helped the
opposition determine where and when to fight.
However, even a dictator needs to find ways of legitimising his position. According to
the experts, the last few years of the regime were marked by some transparency. This
was an attempt to make it more resilient in times of change. There was the
appearance of freedom without its substance — for example, the government allowed
anti-government demonstrations but its repression of dissidents went on unabated. It
paid lip-service to freedom of speech but rigged elections and tortured
demonstrators. It seemed 2011 would mark a turning point, but the army’s shooting
of pro-democracy demonstrators in Tahrir Square on the 9th of March shattered
illusions and showed just how much power Egypt’s armed forces still wielded. The past
few years have taught Egyptians many lessons and people are unwilling to give up
what they have fought so hard for.
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Today’s China is ruled by technocrats, not revolutionaries like Mao or Den Xiaoping.
The new breed are apparatchiks — grey bureaucrats who shun risk and whose rise
through the ranks is the prize for unwavering loyalty to the party. Government
censorship of the Internet is another step to ward off revolution. Corruption is part
and parcel of authoritarian regimes and China’s vast bureaucracy is corruption writ
large. The system’s legitimacy is based on keeping up appearances – a crisis of any kind
undermines this. The party survived one ‘Tiananmen’ but ew believe it could survive
another.