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    of 17
    Dirk Heinrichs + Kerstin Krellenberg Bernd Hansjiirgens * Francisco Martinez Editors Risk Habitat Megacity Q Springer Editors Dr. Dirk Heinrichs Dr. Kerstin Krllenberg German Aerospace Center (DLR) Heimboltz Centre for Institute of Transport Research Environmental Research - UFZ Rutherford. 2 Department of Urban and 12489 Berlin Environmental Sociology Germany Permoserstae 15 dink heirichs@ dlr.de 04318 Leipzig Gemany Prof. De. Bernd Hansjirgens Kerstin krellenbera@utz de Helinotz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ Prof. Dr. Francisco Maminez Department of Economics Insite for Sustainable Urban Development Permosert. 15 Faculy of Physical and Mathematical Sciences 04318 Leipzig Universidad de Chile Germany Blanco Encalada 2002 bem hansjuergens@ufe.de Santiago Chile fmartine@ing.uchile.ct ISBN 978-3-642-11543-1 eASBN 978-3.642-11544.8 DOT 10.1007/978-3-642-11544.8 ‘Springer Heidelberg Dordrecht London New York Litray of Congress Contol Number: 2011938468 © ‘Springer-Verlag Bern Heidelberg 2012 “This Work s subject to copyright. Al sights ae eserved, whether the whole or part of the material is -200 [i -100 0 >- 150 [ - s0w >-100 (i) 0 Increase in % (> ww 50 [> -00 00 [il > mow 0 Hi > sow mo HI > x00 «0 _ oo HH = coo wim ol eran aoa ene 88 an 082 amen. canogapy sn Gs neg nase ae Fig. 72. Change in population by municipality 1992-2002 and 2002-2006 in the Metropolitan ‘Area of Santiago de Chile (Source: se figure) 7 Land-Use Change, Risk and Land-Use Management 13 in ongoing land-use dynamics. Secondly, more recent years (2005 and 2009) pro- Vided further information on urban land-use development as well a8 up-to-dete Spatial information for this decade. This made it possible to mark the velocity oF fand-use change and urban growth over a period of approximately 20 years ‘The shorter time steps in the last decade (200220052009) support a more differen, tiated understanding of urban growth rates, particularly building activities in risk Prone areas. Moreover, these land-use classifications show relevant changes in land. use dynamics with respect to the amount of lost pervious soils over rather short jntervals i. ene land, above all agricultural feds, reversibly lost (see Fig. 74), Aerial photographs from 2006 were used to monitor vegetation, TULC classifications over time are a useful tool to examine how urban forms modify the landscape, They help to detect and evaluate the distribution of impervious ‘uiees, a Key parameter for risk analysis and the prevention of, eg. footing, Remotely sensed data is used to detect and evaluate the physical structure ari Composition of urban areas, such as residential, commercial or mixed Reighbourhoods, green space or agricultural areas and woodland. How land is Allocated is another factor that both determines and influences the risk of floding in Imegacities. The key question with regard to seeping water rates and surface run-offvis ‘whether land is used for green space and parks, agricultural purposes or housing, The ‘main LULC driver consists of urban expansion in the form of built-up areas 732 Elaboration of Indicators for Flood Risk Analysis Im order to analyse the driving forces behind flood risk, the state ofthe environment and current urban development processes in the MAS, indicators were elaborated as depicted in the previous subsections and listed in Table 7.1 (cf. Weiland 2006). The «degree of imperviousness and the vegetation monitoring focus on the loss of urban igen space to construction were used asa further indicator of flood risk production, Patection and allocation of change from one land-use type to another support findings on the degree of imperviousness and growth rate of built-up areas In addition, the number of new settlements and infrastructure developments in areas with high flood hazard level i calculated for each municipality, ‘The indicators are defined and calculated as follows: {+ The number of inhabitants per hectare indicates population density. Analysis of this indicator overtime produces information on the inner-urban development Patten in the MAS. It also shows the need for urban infrastructure such as flood mitigation measures. Neighbourhoods with high population densities in high flood risk areas call for special consideration in risk management and adequate land-use planning processes. 2 The built-up area per municipality refers to the total number of buildings, road ‘networks and the remaining urban built infrastructure. The amount of elements at rsk can be estimated by means of the derived density ‘Table 7.1_ Selected rsk-related indicators “Temporal scales Data source Aspect Indicator Population density Inhabitanivimunicipalty 1992, 2002, 2006 Census data CASEN Linh a Building density Buil-up area/municipality 1993, 2002, 2005, Remote sensing data (ba) 2008 Imperviousness Degree of imperviousness/ 1993, 2002, 2005, Remote sensing data ‘municipality (ha) 2008 Green space cover Number and size of green 2006 spaces/municipality [ha] Elements at risk Proportion of new ‘etlements and Infrastructure? ‘municipality in areas facing high flood hazard Level (Se) Remote sensing data 1993, 2002, 2009 Remote sensing & GIS data Source: Weiland 2006 3. The degree of imperviousness per municipality in contrast distinguishes “between various levels of imperviousness. The four derived levels comprise LULC categories with (1) @ minimal degree of or no imperviousness (wood- land, urban green space, barren/open space, agricultural areas), (2) a low degre sparse vegetation, dispersed bull-up areas), () an intermediate degree (medium density of built-up areas), and (4) high imperviousness (densely built-up areas, streets, rocky areas). This indicator points to surface infiltration capacities, 7 4. The number and size of green spaces, both private and public, is measured by ‘emote sensing as both should be considered in flood risk prevention. The greater the number and area of green spaces, the more effective the storm water infil- ‘ration. Thus an increase in the value of this indicator points to improvements in flood risk prevention in municipalities with a low distribution of green space or located in risk-prone areas. 5. The proportion of new settlements and infrastructure developments with high flood hazard levels is theoretically restricted by law. Nevertheless, exceptions are possible and captured by the indicator that measures the relative amount of ‘new settlements and infrastructure developments facing a high flood hazard level (one or more events every two years) per municipality. 1.4 Analysis of Demographic and Land-Use Dynamics as Major Driving Forces Behind Flood Risk It is a central assumption that land use and especially land-use change are key factors in the transformation of natural hazards into risks. Land-use dynamics occur as a result of population and economic growth, and the subsequent increase in 7 Land-Use Change, Risk and Land-Use Management 135 {transportation infrastructure. Furthermore, population growth and social differenti- ation increase housing demands to satisfy both basic and higher accommodation requirements. Identifying the principal features of land-use change is an important {ask and findings should in particular provide information on time, space. and quantity. These changes in the demographic dynamics of MAS will be analysed a the major drivers of risks and potential mitigation measures, Asa result of urban growth, the spatial expansion of urban arcas into peri-urban and rural localities is now a common phenomenon. Pressured by demographic development, new settlement construction is pushed towards the periphery and beyond. The applied risk concept (see Sect. 7.2) substantiates that population isthe ‘most critical element at risk, since affluence and population growth lead to planned and unplanned settlements. These areas of urban expansion are prone to natural hazards such as floods, intensifying isk regardless ofthe level of vulnerability. The greater the number of people living in hazard-prone areas, the higher the risk that they will be affected by a hazardous event. With respect to flood risk management (sce Sect. 7.5.2) and the development of measures (prevention, mitigation and Preparedness), population dynamics, including spatial distribution throughout the City and especially in areas prone to natural hazards, must be investigated. 7.4.1 Demographic Change The MAS comprises 34 of the 52 municipalities that make up the Metropolitan Region of Santiago (MRS). It covers an area of 2,274 km? and amounts to 15% of the MRS area. In 2002, the MAS was home to approximately 5.4 million inhabitants. This corresponds to 89% of the population of the MRS and 36% of the total population of Chile. The 50 year period from 1952 to 2002 saw an almost linear population growth in the MAS from 1.41 million inhabitants in 1952, 10 3.92 ‘million in 1982, reaching 5.39 million inhabitants in 2002 (CEPAL 2005: 89), Between 1992 and 2002, the MAS population rose by around 650,000 inhabitants from 4.7 to 5.4 million (INE 1992; INE 2002) (see Fig. 7.2). This overall population increase of 13.7%, which corresponds to an average annual {growth rate of 1.38% in the MAS, was accompanied by contrasting processes of growth and decline at the individual municipality level. Whereas 18 of the 34 municipalities showed a decline in population figures, the remaining 16 muni Palities experienced an increase. Although population has been in decline in the Centrally located municipalities with smaller areas and higher population densities, ithas risen in municipalities located on the periphery, which have larger areas and lower population densities. Those with the highest growth rates are Quilicura (municipality No, 27) in the northem part, Puente Alto (No. 34) in the southeastem Part and Maipu (No. 29) in the western part of the MAS. Independencia (No. 14), ‘San Joaquin (No. 8), Santiago (No. 9) and Conchait (No, 25) in the central part of the MAS are the municipalities with the highest population losses. between 1992 and 2002 (sce Fig. 7.2) ie E. Banzhaf ct a. Between 2002 and 2006, the population in the MAS increased from 5.4 to 5.8 million (INE 2002; MIDEPLAN 2006), corresponding to a growth rate of 7.34% and fan average annual growth rate of 1.8%. The latter exceeds that of the 1992-2002 period and points to a more rapid annual population growth. The spatial pattern of ‘growth and decline for this 4-year-period, on the other hand, is comparable to that ‘of the 1992-2002 period. Population changes in the MAS are primarily defined by intra-urban migration ‘and immigration processes from municipalities outside the MAS, i.e. from the MRS, from other regions in the country or from abrond (see Chap. 8), and, ‘additionally, by the positive natural population balance stemming from a higher birth than death rate. 74.2 Land-Use Change Demographic change coupled with economic and technological developments teads to land-use change and urban growth, Land-use classifications and changes ‘were calculated for four time steps (1993, 2002, 2005 and 2009) and indicate urban ‘growth in buill-up urban areas, as well asin the agricultural environment and other ‘open space around Santiago. Figure 7.3 shows the amount of land transformed into built-up areas for each of the years under investigation. It further demonstrates the direction of urban growth, To quantify the increase in built-up areas since 1993, the figure displays settlement expansion from approximately 500-575 km’, the equivalent of a 15% increase between 1993 and 2009. “The built-up area in 1993 is highlighted in white expansion over an almost 10 year period is represented in light grey. Further built-up activities for this period are marked in grey, while dark grey denotes the most recent changes. The back- ‘ground to the map shows the central longitudinal valley where Santiago is situated, ‘and the Andean mountains in the east. No land-use changes were calculated for the municipality of San Bernardo (No. 33) due to lack of data, so that land-use information can only be given for 33 of the 34 municipalities. In the northwestern, western and southwestern areas, urban expansion extends far beyond the suburbs (light grey) to the peri-urban areas, transforming agricul- tural land into urbanized forms, Hence the urbanized form of the Quilicura (No. 27), Pudahuel (No, 28) and Maipi (No. 29) municipalities has undergone significant change as a result of added housing developments and a decline in the ‘open space and agricultural land, Figure 7.3 also shows the patchiness of urban expansion and the loss of urban density in the outskirts of the city. Urban growth to the east of the city has thrust its way into the Andean foothills, striking examples of which are Perialolén (No. 20) (see Sect. 7.4) and Lo Barnechea (No. 32). More recent urban development occurred in the municipality of Las Condes (No. 22), where housing developments have soared in the last five years, again to the higher altitudes of the Andean foothills. Urban expansion in the 4+ kaina-Use Cnange, ISK ana Land-Use Management 137 Metopotan Area ot Santage de Chie 1 Lxarana 2 Beem 2 163 ° = o= Siem an men nowoana Our — En= ee Fig. 7.3. Changes in built-up areas showing dynamics of urban growth (Source: The authors) imicipality of Puente Ato, in contrast, has freed esta south of the Andean foothills. " Sento the valley ‘The Metropolitan Land-Use Pan (PRMS) promulgated in 194 marked a tr: ing pont allowing as 1 id wbanastion on fone agricultural lan. I dened 2 ah ay ano de vat surouning esn te eyo elopabe lan legal cndion that provided opportunities for real exe invesment and eorsequnlyaoseratd urban dynamic Reyes Packe 2008) “The extent ofl area per hectare and mankpalty fs evideneof he id reese ‘in urbanization across the time frame 1993-2009 (see Fig. 7.4), As a recent velopment, ban growlh a a steady But lower pace Was Monit ee y ut Tower pase was tonite for this FFgure 74 shows the proportion of change within the urbanized area and the development of grill land in the 33 analysed maniciaies Bulleup aes | 1 138 30000 —_ 7 = [dense 20000 Ae intermediate = oo & 15000 > periurban “10000 |W agriculture 5000 | eg —| ° toca” ~—

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