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Sugar Handbook
Commoditiosand Export Projections Division
EconomicAnalysisand Projections Department
B
Foebruray1991
TABLEOF CONTENTS
Page No.
I. INITRODUCTION
...................... 1
III. SUGARPRODiUCTION
..............
........................
1
A. Production ............ .. .. .. 1
B. Cost of Production ........... .. . 4
C. Production Policy ............ .. . 5
Figure
INTRODUCTION
from which the juice has been extracted,is used as a fuel, making the manu-
facturingprocess of sugar from cane, an energy-surplusoparation.
SUGARPRODUCTION,
ANDNON-CENTRIFUGAL
Table YT-1: CENTRIFUTGAL
1976-78 AVERAGE,BY MAJORPRODU'CERS
Developed
Countries 26,518 12 0.0 0.1
Centrally Planned
Economies 13,099 0 0.0 0.0
Centrally ?lanned
Asia 4,709 876 18.6 6.'.
Developing
Countries 45,095 12,848 28.5 93.5
10. The last group of sweetenersother than sugar are the sweeteners
derived from starch. Commercialproductionstartedaround 1850 in the US,
the only country in which starch syrups are of major importance. Since corn
is the source of starch used in this country for the productionof starch
syrups they are commonlycalled corn syruDs.
REFERENCES
5. Mcade, G.P., and J.C.P. Chen, Cane Sugar Handbook;a Manual For Cane
Sugar Manufacturersand Their Chemists, 10th ed. John
Willey, N.Y. 1977.
A. Production
10
__roduction of Ir Shires in World Tltat Production Grovtb Rate
lu /a
1'54/156 196.166 La~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
1974/76 1954/56 1964/66 1974/76 1951177 1966/77 ri
L by regressinlg
CO11pl1te8d tile logarithn of pi-odiaction on rtlt.a. hieatirting and the year
1t1d(n1g of dinescond period eachs
foLlow toy iliree years the years of record sugar prices of 1963 and 1974 respectively.
Souirce: inLternmat ional Sutgar Organil zat ion.
February 1981 III-3
1955-1977
Table III-A2:PRICE ELASTSt3TIES OF PRODUCTION A- .VE?.A.GE
PRMDUCTION LEVELS AND AT TWODIFFERENT 1970 PR:C_ L_'.ELS,BY COMNMTY
. Africa
India
-Indonesia
.056
.041
.19'
.111
.082
.382
.004
.120
.206
.512
.462
.581
.987
.580
.861
Philippines .009 .017 .17 1.364 '.-;1
Taiwan .090 .181 . .167 .304
Thailand 1.093 2.186 .-o 4.i59 .7.,'9
Other Asia .165 330 - .717 1.434
Note: -he elasticities are deri'vedbv esti=ating fcr eac. countrV or -he period
1955-1977the fol1ow4ng ecuat'on:
C - a + b 'og QAV - cPAV + d log ?C
vhere:
Q = production
QAV - chree-year zer.:ered average cf -rcduct:-n
P - world free .ar.ket pr±ce _f sugar (TA dai_y price) def'atet
by t-e 3ank's 'noex of .n;ernationa_ ?-ices.
?AV = :nree-vear -en:ered average c- wor'd free -nar'e pr'ze
C= average of wortd free mar.ket price _- ourrentand previous year.
February 1981 III-4
B. Cost of Production
0
February 1981 III-5
C. ProductionPolicy
REFERENCES
11. Warley, T.K., ed. Agricultural Producers and Their Markets. Blackwell,
Oxford, 1967.
12. World Bank "The World Sugar Economy: Review and Outlook for Bank Lending",
3oard Paper No. 1394, February 1978.
.
February 1981 IV-1
A. Sugar Consumption
------ ('000 metric tons) - ----------- (perceut) ---------- ---- (percent per annum)--- w
WORID 39,444 59,0%6 9j814 100.0 100.0 100.0 . 2.B
Developed Cotintrles 2 960 2674 ~ !433 53.1 45.3 39.4 2.3 1.1
US 7,881 9,309 9,822 20.0 15.8 12.3 1.4 0.2
Cafada 730 916 1,002 1.8 1.6 1.2 2.1 0.2
E8(C 7,738 9,663 10,684 19.6 16.4 13.4 1.8 0.2
OtLher Western Europe 2,230 3,322 4,621 5.6 5.6 5.8 4.0 2.9
Ja1)anl 1,111 1,939 3,105 2.8 3.2 3.9 6.0 3.6
Oceanuia 675 808 980 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.8 1.8
SomitbiAtrica 596 825 1,220 1.5 1.4 1.5 3.3 4.9
Ceiutmally Planned Economies 7 146 15,141 20,862 18.6 25.6 26.1 S 3 3.3
USSR 4,185 9,309 11,518 10.6 15.8 14.4 5.1 2.6
Eastern Etirope 2,267 3,299 4,614 5.8 5.6 5.8 3.7 2.8
Asia 897 2,524 4,730 2.3 4.3 5.9 9.3 5.6
DevelupihigCo1iutries 11,137 17,172 27.519 28.2 29.1 34.5 4.7 4.6
Alrica 1,579 2,462 3,899 4.0 4.2 4.9 4.6 4.7
Asia 4,471 6,772 10,791 11.3 11.5 13.5 5.0 4.6
I[ndia 2,034 2,811 3,888 5.2 4.8 4.9 4.0 . 4.0
li,dcloetIa 585 594 1,287 1.5 1.0 1.6 4.0 8.3
Iiuilippilles 271 520 881 0.7 0.9 1.1 5.9 5.1
Taiwall 107 141 304 0.3 0.2 0.4 5.S 6.6
'IlmlaoI.,d 65 178 539 0.2 0.3 0.7 10,5 10.9
O)I)er Asia 1,405 2,537 3,892 3.6 4.3 4.9 5.6 3.3
Latin Amlerica 5,086 7,937 12,829 12.9 13.4 16.1 4.6 4.6
Augeuttina 665 852 1,059 1.7 1.4 1.3 2.1 2.0
Biazil 1,903 2,776 4,886 4.8 4.7 6.1 4.6 5.7
Colombia 223 390 788 0.6 0.7 1.0 6.3 7.7
1'eru 197 336 550 0.5 0.6 0.7 4.8 5.4
ttthrlm South America 613 975 1,427 1.6 1.6 1.8 4.5 3.5
CiIad 241 478 518 0.6 0.8 0.6 3.7 -2.2
lhoiil,,ican Repuiblic 56 108 16t 0.1 0.2 0.2 5.3 4.3 N
fN-xi:2o 872 1,485 2,540 2.2 2.5 3.2 5.4 5.1
OtLiMLHiddle America 317 535 893 0.8 0.9 1.1 5.1 5.2
in by regressing
Comiptited the logarithm of consumlption on time. Thle starting anid the ending year of tho &o*oo
period ench
follow by Litree years thieyears of record augar pricea of 1963 and 1974 reapoctively.
where:
CCAP- zer capita ccnsumption
YCAP = per capita income at 975 prices and excnange ra-es.
P - world market pr4ce of sugar (ISA daily price) def:atec
by t..e 3ank's 'nde:x of Trnternat"onal Prices.
February 1981 IV-4
B. Sweeteners
1/ Such a situationis largely due to the fact that either a large proportion
of sugar is still consumeddomesticallyin unimilled form, and/or government
policieshave been geared to encourageoroductionfor exports rather than
for domesticconsumption.
*February 1981 I-
Devalou.d Counertaa
Africa -Os C a -o10lo Y 4. lot ? 3.99 .89 38.0 -.021 1.9 1.41 .99
CCAP *a - b CAP - eleg P 23.1 24... -81
.242 2.0 1.69 .96
CCOA. a-, log 7CAP - alog ? 20.27 8.55 :~o -. 134 1.4 1.41 .9
~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~lot C *a 6 log Y 3.12 1.13 7.1 1.30 .76
cCCP a-ta TC- -233 60 2.4 1.30 26
CCAP -a - 6log YC~.. z2.21 6.22 2. 4 1.30 .26
'ndonesLa *a I; 1~lg
.98 1.22 9.1 16 8
0052 a-1. 6 P -c2.45 52.87 7.6 1.61 .75
CCOAl a b4 log TCAP 24.62 l0.14 7.5 1.66 .79
2.ili.ppines log C -a+t, o log 7 7.54 -11.42 15.1 -.006 0.2 1.39 .95
CcAp a+.b log YCA c t og 7 40.75 18.63 5.5 -. 671 0.S 1.18 .711
Taivan lov~~~~b
C *a+b 6log Y 4. o log P .52 .51 17.2 -.009 0.2 1.06 .96
C.:AP a4. 6log ?CAP 19.26 110.47 12.7 0.96 .91
ThailanA log C a 4 6log Y 2.II's 1. 1.95 9
COA - a-b YCAP 27.57 14.79 10.0 1.52 .54
Other Asia log C * a+.blCg 'Y * o lag 7 6.61 .74 16.8 -. 131 4.4, 1.11 .95
CCOA* a .. b YCAP - c log P 6.14 10.69 7,.2 -1.353 3.6 0.54 .78
COA - a -b log !CA. - c log P 15.57 5.!3 2.0 -1.094 3.5 1.08 .81
A.rgantinm log C - a -P 6lag ? 5.15 .47 7.0 2.40 .76
CUPl - a4. log !CAP 35.68 8.77 2.2 2.2.3 .23
3radil log C - a+4 6log Y5.51 .63 24.1. 2.3'. .91
CCOA - a4. 6log YCA2 43.37 i5.39 9.3 1,92 54
C010lomi lC$ C - a - 6log Y 2,42 .96 211.5 1.48 .98
CCOA - a+ 6log YwA 55.4.4 39.68 17.0 . 1.1 .95
P.ru log C - a 6 lag 7 3.35 .96 211.5 0.97 .97
COA - a4.6log YCA 40..24 27.50 8.1 0.388
Othber South %4marizA IC$ C - a4. log .f- c log ? 3.37 1.03 15.4 -31 1.6 2.21 .95
CCA" - a4. log VWA .- c log?P 32.48 31.92 7.0 -1.1.03 1.5 2.18 .78
Cuba log C - a+b/Y + c log P 8.10 -10.54 3.7 ...
290 3.7 0.96 .52
OCAp - a4.c log ? 56.53 -11.411 3.3 0.70 .40
Domic.n Rapubt1c C- a h l.og Y 4. c log ? 74.48 87.34 11.9 -6.127 1.4 1.60 .92
COAP - a+4 6lag YCA -c 103 ? 41.90 12.59 3.0 -1."8 1.0 1.36 .40
Mlexico log C - a .b log Y 4.12- .55 40.0 1.14 .99
CCOA - a4. log XtAP 34.85 24.93 13.1 1.216 .94
Other !-dd't A.ervcs log C - a * log Y 3.42 .9S 25.21 0.4,7 98
OCA - a 4 log YCAP 27.85 -1.42 12.6 0.35 .91
8. Table IV-Bl presentsdata on sugar and HFCS for the US. Because
cf an almost doublingof manufacturingcapacity for HFCS since 1976, HFCS
now replacesapproximately20 percent of US sugar consumption.
C. XT..
C, TCC neliviries
I 45 56 93 150
II 53 56 109 163
III 54 59 124 245
IV 56 77 141 268
.
February1981 IV-8
Beverages 22.3
Bakery and Cereal 13.7
Confectionary 9.7
Canned Foods 9.0
Dairy Ice Cream 5.4
Other 6.1
Domestic Use 33.8
TOTAL 100.0
Sources: USDA, Sugar Shipment; First Manhatten Co., and Westwav Newsletter.
.
February 1981 nV-9
US 2,400 1,650 17
/a IBRD guesswqork.
Source: figh Fructose Co= Syrur World Outlook, San Francisco: McKeany
Flavell Conpar.y, Inc., March 25, 1980 (mimeo).
NB: There is no knowr. HFCS capacity outside the countries in this table.
JdeVr- es:dk
April 10, 1950
EPZCz
0
February1981 IV-10
.
February1981 IV-ll
REFERENCES
5. Smith, Ian; The European Community and the World Sugar Crisis. Staff
Paper No. 7. Trade Policy Research Center, London, 1974.
10. World Bank, "The World Sugar Economy: Review and Outlook for Bank Lending",
Board Paper No. 1894, February 1978.
February 1981 V-1
V. SUGAR TRADE
1954/56
Export! ot Su&!r Shares in World Total Elport Growth ia!R Lte
1964/66 1974176 1954/56 1964/66 1974/76 1951/77 1966177
----- ('000 uietric tons) -------- ------------ (percent)---------- -- (percent per *nnum)--
Developed Couintries 3_020 3 648 4,587 21.5 19.7 21.2 3.0 5.1
lit; 39 I III .3 .0 .5 -5.0 42.3
(Catiad 1 17 61 .() .1 .3 - 17.7
EEC 2,058 1,587 1,233 14.7 8.6 5.7 -1.5 5.7
Oliter Western Europe 34 150 164 .2 .8 .8 6.2 4.5
Japan 25 2 43 .2 .0 .2 - 16.7
t)ea nia 655 1,349 2,142 4.7 7.3 9.9 7.4 4.1
Soutilh Africa 209 539 832 1.5 2.9 3.8 11.5 4.1
Developing Countries 9 947 ? 1342 _ 16401 70.9 66.7 75.8 2.4 3.6
Atrica 668 1,037 1,151 4.H 5.6 5.3 3.1 1.9
Asia 2,079 2,897 3,938 14.8 15.7 18.2 3.0 6.9
lindia - 55 792 - 1.8 3.8 - 10.0
Indonesia 195 81 - 1.4 .4 - -
Pll lippines 949 1,101 1,385 6.8 6.0 6.4 2.6 5.7
Talwall 617 826 491 4.4 4.5 2.3 - .6 -2.4
Tia iladi d - 55 792 - .3 3.7 - -
Otlier Asia 318 507 436 2.3 2.7 2.0 1.6 - .7
I.stiti Atinerica 7,200 8,498 11,314 51.3 45.4 52.3 2 1 2.7
Argentina 28 53 383 .2 .3 1.8 - 22.7
l-iazil 251 697 1,762 1.8 3.8 8.1 13.6 8.0
ColombIa 29 80 142 .2 .4 .7 -
Pein 444 416 3119 3.2 2.2 1.8 .0 - .7
Ottlier Soutik America 255 347 47'1 1.0 1.9 2.2 3.0 .4 C
Cuba 4,755 4,642 5,666 33.9 25.1 26.2 .3 1.6
D)oultnican RepuiblIc 617 585 1,010 4.4 3.2 4.7 2.3 6.1
Mexico 62 515 242 .4 2.8 1.1 -
OtlIer Middle Aneicrca 758 1,072 1,250 5.4 5.8 5.8 3.1 2.1
|a Cousputed by regressing tihe logarithm of exports on time. If there were no exports reported in one or more of the yers
concerned, no growtih rate was computed. The starting arid ending years of the secon4 period esch follov by tbree years
the yeats of record auigar prices of 1963 and 1974 respectively.
/a Coumputedby regressing tl,elogarithm of imports on time. If eherewere no imports reported in one or wore of the yerea
concerned, no growti rate was coniputed. The starting and the ending years of the sec,nd
period each follow by three years
the years of record sugar prices of 1963 and 1974 respectively.
--- ('000 metric tons)---- --- (X)- -(000 mnet:r]c tons) -- ()--
lwOiI.n 19 138 6 26,062 27 1I,102? 6 883 1 27
TudiastrJallzed Countrfea 3,573 3,691 7,266 51 10,379 2,027 12,406 16
uIS 0 35 35 10( 4,074 347 4,421 8
(:anad a 0 111 111 10( 989 11 1,000 1
*Iapati 0 4 4 100 2,471 0 2,471 100
ll:259
FFC 3,347 3,606 93 2,073 884 2,957 30
Otlier Western Europe 3 45 48 94 558 583 1,141 25
Otlier Ind(ustrialized 3,311 151 3,462 4 214 202 416 49
Ceni raidly I'wlaitnedl Economies 442 84(1 1,282 66 5,578 1,082 6,660 16
is;S 0 115 115 It0 3,873 306 4,179 7
Other Eastern Eulrope 0 63(0 630 100 308 484 792 61
As I. 442 95 537 18 1,397 292 1,689 17
DevelopDing Couitries 15,123 2,391 17,514 14 2,345 3,775 6h120 62
Aftica 1,229 115 1,344 N 533 1,817 2,350 77
Latin America 10,682 1,438 12,120 12 384 132 516 26
Asia 2,923 839 3,762 22 1,426 1,774 1,200 55
01t herX- 289 0 289 t 2 53 54 97
Ci
February 1981 V-6
January 4.43 3.69 5.41 17.72 14.76 8.86 12.80 11.00 11.00
February 4.43 3.44 6.89 16.73 13.78 8.86 12.00 11.00 11.00
March 4.43 3.44 6.89 15.75 9.84 8.37 12.00 10.50 11.50
April 4.43 3.44 7.38 17.72 9.84 8.86 12.00 10.50 12.50
May 4.43 3.44 7.87 19.69 8.86 9.84 12.00 11.00 12.50
June 4.18 3.44 8.86 19.69 8.37 10.83 12.00 12.00 12.50
July 4.18 3.69 8.86 18.70 7.87 10.83 11.00 lt .50 12.50
August 4.18 3.69 8.86 15.75 7.87 10.83 11.00 11.50 12.50
September 4.18 3.94 10.33 14.76 7.87 10.83 11.00 11.00 12.50
October 3.94 4.43 11.81 14.76 7.87 11.32 11.00 11.00 12.50
November 3.69 4.92 12.80 14.76 7.87 11.32 10.50 11.00 12.50
December 3.69 4.92 14.76 14.76 8.37 12.80 10.50 11.00 12.50
Brazil
inland raw bulk 15.00 2.86 20.72
port raw bulk 20.00 2.86 25.72
France
port raw bulk 20.32 4.43 29.18
distribution refined bags 46.00 13.82 46.00
W. Germany
port raw bulk 21.60 16.00 53.60
India
inland raw bags 24.00 1.10 26.20
port raw bags 1.20 1.10 3.40
Japan
port raw bulk 23.76 3.94 31.64
inland refined bags 36.00 6.00 36.00
Mexico
inland raw bags 9.60 2.91 15.42
port raw bulk 18.00 2.90 23.80
Us
port raw bulk 14.40 3.76 21.92
port refined bags 41.00 20.40 41.00
/a Rental costs plus twice in/out costs, assuziingthat raw sugar has to be
rotated twice a year.to avoid quality deterioratio.,.No rotatfon is
required for refined bagged sugar 'n temperate climates.
Closine Stocks
1975 1976 1977 1975-77 S-.aes in
Average World Total
0
February 1981 V-10
B. Market Structure
20. It has been estimatedthat the annual cost of the sugar program
* to Americanconsumersand taxpayerswas between $500-730million at 1972
levels of United States prices and consumption.1/ Approximatelyone third
of the gross transferwent to foreign quota holders and the remainderto
domesticsugar producers. The premiumwhich foreign suppliersreceivedover
and above free market prices made sales in the latter less attractiveand
downgraded the free market to a residualstatus.
21. The last US Sugar Act, which expired in January 1975, coincided
with the commodityprice boom of 1973-74and was consequentlynot renewed.
The US sugar producers (mainlythose producingbeet) respondedto increasing
productionby 21 percent from i974 to 1976. The decline in sugar pric!s since
1975 caused domesticproducersto successfullypressure for a reintroduction
of protectivemeasures.
E. The EuropeanCommunitv
F. Japan
REFERENCES
7. Harris, Simon, and Ian Smith; World Sugar Markets in a State of Flux,
AgriculturalTrade Papers No. 4, Trade Policy Research
Center,London, 1973.
10. Johnson,D. Gale; The Sugar Program:Large Costs and Small Benefits.
AmericanEnterpriseInstitute;WashingtonD.C., 1974.
11. Payer, Cheryl, ed., CommodityTrade of the Third World. John Weley and
Sons, N.Y., 1975.
February 1981 V-16
REFERENCES
13. United Nations Sugar Conference, Geneva, 1973. United Nations Sugar
Conference, 1973. N.Y. MN, 1974. United Nations
(Document) TD/Sugar 816.
15. Warley, T.K., ed. Agricultural Producers and Their Markets. Blackwell,
Oxford, 1967.
16. World Bank "The World Sugar Economy: Review and Outlook for Bank
Lending", Board Paper No. 1894, February 1978.
February 1981 VI-i
98~~~~~~LNM PA "?<
2C,)~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~,
-e
S I
*~~~~~~~~I.j
_e5
*, l%
,_
1D,
r:~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~z
a
, ''J^ ,R .1
1
p -_,_ .L...... 2
Ptj
el .
| ! ,* ~' 0 T :: -
February 1981 VI-3
in the post World War-II period: less than 2c/lb. from 1965 to 1968. Free
market prices were well below the cost of productionin most exporting
* countries.
5. The trend of rising prices since 1969 turned into a price boom
in 1974, peakingat a 30¢/lb.average for that year. The boom was triggered
by productiondeclinesin Cuba and the USSR, that resultedin world consumption
exceedingproductionin 1971.
1/ The growth of production in the US, the EC and Australia accounted for
- about 40 percent of the g:owth in world production for the same period.
February 1981 VI-4
0
February1981 VI-5
.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
February1981 VI-6
REFERENCES
7. GertrudeLovasy;"Medium-Term
Trends in the InternationalSugar Market".
EconomicDepartment,IBRD, August 1970. No. EC-176a.
8. Harris, Sinon, and Ian Smith; World Sugar Markets in a State of Flux,
AgriculturalTrade Papers No. 4, Trade Policy <esearch
Center, London, 1973.
10. Johnson,D. Gale; The Sugar Program:Large Costs and Small Benefits.
AmericanEnterpriseInstitute;Washington,D.C., 1974.
11. Smith, Ian; The EuropeanCommunityand the World Sugar Crisis. Staff
Paper No. 7. Trade Policy ResearchCenter, London, 1974.