23.

3 Sampling Distributions
Essential Question: How is the mean of a sampling distribution related to the corresponding
population mean or population proportion?

Resource
Locker

Explore 1 Developing a Distribution of Sample Means

The tables provide the following data about the first 50 people to join a new gym: member ID number, age, and sex.

ID Age Sex ID Age Sex ID Age Sex ID Age Sex ID Age Sex
1 30 M 11 38 F 21 74 F 31 32 M 41 46 M

2 48 M 12 24 M 22 21 M 32 28 F 42 34 F
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3 52 M 13 48 F 23 29 F 33 35 M 43 44 F
4 25 F 14 45 M 24 48 M 34 49 M 44 68 M

5 63 F 15 28 F 25 37 M 35 18 M 45 24 F

6 50 F 16 39 M 26 52 F 36 56 F 46 34 F

7 18 F 17 37 F 27 25 F 37 48 F 47 55 F

8 28 F 18 63 F 28 44 M 38 38 F 48 39 M

9 72 M 19 20 M 29 29 F 39 52 F 49 40 F

10 25 F 20 81 F 30 66 M 40 33 F 50 30 F
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Enter the age data into a graphing calculator and find the mean age μ and standard deviation σ
for the population of the gym’s first 50 members. Round each statistic to the nearest tenth.

 Use a graphing calculator’s random number generator to choose a sample of 5 gym

_
members. Find the mean age x for your sample. Round to the nearest tenth.

Module 23 837 Lesson 3

 Report your sample mean to your teacher. As other students report their sample means,
create a class histogram. To do so, shade a square above the appropriate interval as each
sample mean is reported. For sample means that lie on an interval boundary, shade a square
on the interval to the right. For instance, if the sample mean is 39.5, shade a square on the
interval from 39.5 to 40.5.
Make your own copy of the class histogram.

 Calculate the mean of the sample means, μ x_, and the standard deviation of the sample
means, σ _x.

 Now use a graphing calculator’s random number generator to choose a sample of 15 gym
members. Find the mean for your sample. Round to the nearest tenth.

 Report your sample mean to your teacher. As other students report their sample means,
create a class histogram and make your own copy of it.

 Calculate the mean of the sample means, μ x_, and the standard deviation of the sample
means, σ _x.

Reflect

1. In the class histograms, how does the mean of the sample means compare with the population mean?
2. What happens to the standard deviation of the sample means as the sample size increases?
3. What happens to the shape of the histogram as the sample size increases?

Explore 2 Developing a Distribution of Sample Proportions

Use the tables of gym membership data from Explore 1. This time you will develop a sampling
distribution based on a sample proportion rather than a sample mean.

Find the proportion p of female gym members in the population.

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 Use a graphing calculator’s random number generator to choose a sample of 5 gym
members. Find the proportion p̂ of female gym members for your sample.

 Report your sample proportion to your teacher. As other students report their sample
proportions, create a class histogram and make your own copy of it.

 Calculate the mean of the sample proportions, μ p̂, and the standard deviation of the sample
proportions, σ p̂. Round to the nearest hundredth.

 Now use your calculator’s random number generator to choose a sample of 10 gym
members. Find the proportion of female members p̂ for your sample.

 Report your sample proportion to your teacher. As other students report their sample
proportions, create a class histogram and make your own copy of it.

Module 23 838 Lesson 3

  Calculate the mean of the sample proportions, μ p̂, and the standard deviation of the sample
proportions, σ p̂. Round to the nearest hundredth.

Reflect

4. In the class histograms, how does the mean of the sample proportions compare with the population
proportion?
5. What happens to the standard deviation of the sample proportions as the sample size increases?

Explain 1 Using the Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean

The histograms that you made in the two Explores are sampling distributions. A sampling distribution shows
how a particular statistic varies across all samples of n individuals from the same population. In Explore 1, you
_
approximated sampling distributions of the sample mean, x, for samples of size 5 and 15. (The reason your sampling
distributions are approximations is that you did not find all samples of a given size.)

The mean of the sampling distribution of the sample mean is denoted  x_. The standard deviation of the sampling
distribution of the sample mean is denoted σ x_ and is also called the standard error of the mean.
_
In Explore 1, you may have discovered that  x_ is close to x regardless of the sample size and that σ x_ decreases as the
sample size n increases. You based these observations on simulations. When you consider all possible samples of n
individuals, you arrive at one of the major theorems of statistics.

Properties of the Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean

If a random sample of size n is selected from a population with mean μ and standard
deviation σ, then

1.  x_ = ,
2. σ_ , and
σ x_ = _
√n

3. The sampling distribution of the sample mean is normal if the population

is normal; for all other populations, the sampling distribution of the mean
approaches a normal distribution as n increases.

The third property stated above is known as the Central Limit Theorem.
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Example 1 Boxes of Cruncho cereal have a mean mass of 323 grams with a standard
deviation of 20 grams.

For random samples of 36 boxes, what interval centered on the mean of the sampling
distribution captures 95% of the sample means?

Write the given information about the population and a sample.

 = 323 σ = 20 n = 36

Find the mean of the sampling distribution of the sample mean and the standard error of the mean.

 x_ =  = 323 σ_ = _
σ x_ = _ 20 20
_ = _ ≈ 3.3
√n √ 36 6

Module 23 839 Lesson 3

 The sampling distribution of the sample mean is approximately normal. In a normal distribution, 95% of
the data fall within 2 standard deviations of the mean.

 x_ - 2σ x_ = 323 - 2(3.3) = 316.4  x_ + 2σ x_ = 323 + 2(3.3) = 329.6

So, for random samples of 36 boxes, 95% of the sample means fall between 316.4 grams and 329.6 grams.

 What is the probability that a random sample of 25 boxes has a mean mass of at most 325 grams?

Write the given information about the population and the sample.

 = 323 σ = 20 n = 25

Find the mean of the sampling distribution of the sample mean and the standard error of the mean.
20 20
 x_ =  = 323 σ_ = _
σ x_ = _ _ = _= 4
√
√n
25 5

The sampling distribution of the sample mean is approximately normal. Use a graphing calculator to find
_
P(x ≤ 325).
_
(
P(x ≤ 325) = normalcdf -1e99, 325 , 323 , 4 ≈ 0.69 )
So, the probability that the random sample has a mean mass of at most 325 grams is about 0.69.

Your Turn

Boxes of Cruncho cereal have a mean mass of 323 grams with a standard deviation of 20 grams.

6. For random samples of 50 boxes, what interval centered on the mean of the sampling distribution captures
99.7% of the sample means?
7. What is the probability that a random sample of 100 boxes has a mean mass of at least 320 grams?

Explain 2 Using the Sampling Distribution of the

Sample Proportion

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When you work with the sampling distribution of a sample proportion, p represents the proportion
of individuals in the population that have a particular characteristic (that is, the proportion of
“successes”) and p̂ is the proportion of successes in a sample. The mean of the sampling distribution
of the sample proportion is denoted  p̂. The standard deviation of the sampling distribution of
the sample proportion is denoted σ p̂ and is also called the standard error of the proportion.

Properties of the Sampling Distribution of the Sample Proportion

If a random sample of size n is selected from a population with proportion p of
successes, then

 p̂ = p,
1.
――――
p(1 - p)
2. σ p̂ = _ , and
n
3. if both np and n(1− p) are at least 10, then the sampling distribution
of the sample proportion is approximately normal.

Module 23 840 Lesson 3

 Example 2 40% of the students at a university live off campus. When sampling from
this population, consider “successes” to be students who live off campus.

For random samples of 50 students, what interval centered on the mean of the sampling
distribution captures 95% of the sample proportions?

Write the given information about the population and a sample.

p = 0.4 n = 50

Find the mean of the sampling distribution of the sample proportion and the standard error
of the proportion.
―――
p(1 - p) ――――
0.4(1 - 0.4)
μ p̂ = p = 0.4 σ p̂ = ______
n = ________
50
≈ 0.069

Check that np and n(1 - p) are both at least 10.

np = 50 Í 0.4 = 20 n(1 - p) = 50 Í 0.6 = 30

Since np and n(1 - p) are both greater than 10, the sampling distribution of the sample
proportion is approximately normal. In a normal distribution, 95% of the data fall within
2 standard deviations of the mean.

μ p̂ - 2σ p̂ = 0.4 - 2(0.069) = 0.262 μ p̂ + 2σ p̂ = 0.4 + 2(0.069)= 0.538

So, for random samples of 50 students, 95% of the sample proportions fall between 26.2%
and 53.8%.

 What is the probability that a random sample of 25 students has a sample proportion of at
most 37%?

Write the given information about the population and the sample, where a success is a
student who lives off campus.

p = 0.4 n = 25

Find the mean of the sampling distribution of the sample proportion and the standard error
of the proportion.
――― ――――――
 ( )
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p(1 - p) 0.4 1 - 0.4

μ p̂ = p = 0.4 σ p̂ = _______
n = _____________ = 0.098
25
Check that np and n(1 - p) are both at least 10.

np = 25 Í 0.4 = 10 n(1 - p) = 25 Í 0.6 = 15

Since np and n(1 - p) are greater than or equal to 10, the sampling distribution of the
sample proportion is approximately normal. Use a graphing calculator to find P(p̂ ≤ 0.37).

(
P(p̂ ≤ 0.37) = normalcdf -1e99, 0.37 , 0.4 , 0.098 ) ≈ 0.38

So, the probability that the random sample has a sample proportion of at most 37% is about 0.38.

Module 23 841 Lesson 3

 Your Turn

40% of the students at a university live off campus. When sampling from this
population, consider “successes” to be students who live off campus.

8. For random samples of 80 students, what interval centered on the mean of the
sampling distribution captures 68% of the sample proportions?
9. What is the probability that a random sample of 60 students includes more than
18 students who live off campus?

Elaborate
10. What is a sampling distribution?
11. What allows you to conclude that 95% of the sample means in a sampling
distribution are within 2 standard deviations of the population mean?
12. When finding a sample mean or a sample proportion, why is using the greatest sample size
possible (given constraints on the cost and time of sampling) a desirable thing to do?
13. Essential Question Check-In When you repeatedly take random samples of the same
size from a population, what does the mean of the samples approximate?

Evaluate: Homework and Practice

1. The general manager of a multiplex theater took random samples of size t
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each sample, the manager obtained the mean age and the proportion of those
who said they liked the movie. The sample means and sample proportions
are listed in the tables.

Sample Sample
Sample Sample
Sample proportion Sample proportion
mean mean
number (liked the number (liked the
(age) (age)

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movie) movie)
1 22.1 0.6 11 24.2 0.5

2 25.7 0.9 12 26.4 0.6

3 24.8 0.7 13 25.9 0.7

4 24.3 0.7 14 23.8 0.8

5 23.9 0.8 15 21.1 0.7

6 23.3 0.6 16 24.4 0.7

7 22.8 0.5 17 23.9 0.6

8 24.0 0.8 18 25.1 0.7

9 25.1 0.7 19 24.7 0.9

10 23.6 0.7 20 22.9 0.6

Module 23 842 Lesson 3

 a. Based on the 20 samples, what is the best estimate for the mean age of all the
people who saw the movie? Explain.
b. Based on this sample, what is the best estimate for the proportion of all the
people who saw the movie and liked it? Explain.
c. What could the manager have done to improve the accuracy of both estimates?

On a standardized science test, the seniors at Fillmore High School

have a mean score of 425 with a standard deviation of 80.

2. For random samples of 30 seniors, what interval centered on the mean of the
sampling distribution captures 95% of the mean scores?
3. For random samples of 100 seniors, what interval centered on the mean of the
sampling distribution captures 68% of the mean scores?
4. What is the probability that a random sample of 50 seniors has a mean score
of at most 415?
5. What is the probability that a random sample of 25 seniors has a mean
score of at least 430?

For Exercises 6–9, use the following information: The safety

placard on an elevator states that up to 8 people (1200 kilograms)
can ride the elevator at one time. Suppose the people who work in
the office building where the elevator is located have a mean mass
of 80 kilograms with a standard deviation of 25 kilograms.

6. For random samples of 8 people who work in the office building, what
interval centered on the mean of the sampling distribution captures 95% of
the mean masses?
7. For random samples of 8 people who work in the office building, what
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interval centered on the mean of the sampling distribution captures 99.7%

of the mean masses?
8. What is the probability that a random sample of 8 people who work in the
office building has a mean mass of at most 90 kilograms?
9. Based on the elevator’s safety placard, what is the maximum mean mass of 8 people
who can ride the elevator at one time? What is the probability that a random sample
of 8 people who work in the office building exceeds this maximum mean mass?
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Module 23 843 Lesson 3

A popcorn manufacturer puts a prize in 25% of its bags of popcorn. When
sampling from this population, consider “successes” to be bags of popcorn
containing a prize.

10. For random samples of 100 bags of popcorn, what interval centered on the mean
of the sampling distribution captures 95% of the sample proportions?
11. For random samples of 80 bags of popcorn, what interval centered on the mean
of the sampling distribution captures 68% of the sample proportions?
12. What is the probability that a random sample of 120 bags of popcorn has prizes
in at most 30% of the bags?
13. What is the probability that a random sample of 60 bags has prizes in more
than 12 bags?

About 28% of students at a large school play varsity sports.

When sampling from this population, consider “successes”
to be students who play varsity sports.

14. For random samples of 75 students, what interval centered

on the mean of the sampling distribution captures 95% of the
sample proportions?
15. For random samples of 100 students, what interval centered
on the mean of the sampling distribution captures 99.7% of
the sample proportions?
16. What is the probability that a random sample of 45 students includes more than
18 students who play varsity sports?
17. What is the probability that a random sample of 60 students includes from 12 to
24 students who play varsity sports?
18. Among the 450 seniors in a large high school, 306 plan to be in college in the fall
following high school graduation. Suppose random samples of 100 seniors are
taken from this population in order to obtain sample proportions of seniors who

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plan to be college in the fall. Which of the following are true statements?
a. Every sample proportion is 0.68.
b. The mean of the sampling distribution of the sample proportion is 0.68.
c. The standard error of the proportion is about 0.047.
d. The standard error of the proportion is about 0.0047.
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e. The sampling distribution of the sample proportion is skewed.

f. The sampling distribution of the sample proportion is approximately normal.

Module 23 844 Lesson 3

 H.O.T. Focus on Higher Order Thinking

19. Explain the Error A student was told that a population has a mean of 400 and
a standard deviation of 25. The student was asked to find the probability that a
random sample of size 45 taken from the population has a mean of at most 401. The
student entered normalcdf (−1e99, 401, 400, 25) on a graphing calculator and got
a probability of about 0.516. What did the student do wrong? Show how to find the
correct answer.
20. Draw Conclusions Amanda plans to use random sampling to estimate the percent
of people who are truly ambidextrous (that is, they do not have a dominant right
or left hand). She suspects that the percent is quite low, perhaps as low as 1%. If she
wants the sampling distribution of the sample proportion to be approximately normal,
what minimum sample size should she use? Explain.
21. Check for Reasonableness Given that about 90% of people are right-handed, you
are interested in knowing what percent of people put their right thumb on top when
they clasp their hands. Having no other information to go on, you assume that people
who put their right thumb on top when they clasp their hands are those who are also
right-handed. You then take a random sample of 100 people and find that 60 put their
right thumb on top when they clasp their hands. Does this result lead you to question
your assumption? Explain why or why not.
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Module 23 845 Lesson 3

Lesson Performance Task
Among the data that the U.S. Census Bureau collects are the sizes of households, as shown in
the table.

Number of people Number of Number of

in household households people

1 31,886,794 ?

2 38,635,170 ?

3 18,044,529 ?

4 15,030,350 ?

5 6,940,508 ?

6 2,704,873 ?

7 or more 1,749,501 ?

a. In the table above, assume that you can simply use 7 as the number of people in
households with 7 or more people. Complete the third column of the table. Then
use that column to approximate the population mean μ (that is, the mean number
of people in a household). Explain your reasoning.

b. Is the actual population mean greater than or less than the mean that you
calculated? Explain.

c. Given that μ ≈ 2.49 and σ ≈ 1.42, find the probability that a random sample of
100 households in the United States has a mean size of 2.3 people or less.

d. Given that μ ≈ 2.49 and σ ≈ 1.42, find the probability that a random sample of

© Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company

100 households in the United States has a mean size of 2.6 people or more.

Module 23 846 Lesson 3