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A Sectoral analysis on relationship between growth and energy in european


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Article  in  Fresenius Environmental Bulletin · January 2015

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© by PSP Volume 24 – No 5. 2015 Fresenius Environmental Bulletin

A SECTORAL ANALYSIS ON RELATIONSHIP


BETWEEN GROWTH AND ENERGY IN EUROPEAN UNION

Gülistan Erdal1*, Güngör Karakaş1 and Bekir Ayyıldız1


1
Gaziosmanpasa University, Faculty of Agricultural, Department of Agricultural Economics, Tokat, Turkey

ABSTRACT The EU is looking for new policies about the energy


issue which is a key point for the economy. The EU was
In this paper the relationship between economic built upon energy and industrial materials like coal and
growth and energy consumption in the European Union steel after WWII and today have troubles in making poli-
(EU) for the period from 1990 to 2011 were investigated. cies mostly for energy sector. The EU, which contains 28
Information for total economy, industry, transport, ser- member countries with a population of about 500 million,
vices, and agriculture in 27 EU countries has been col- is one of the biggest energy consumption areas of the
lected. This paper used panel data analysis to decide cau- world. In spite of hard efforts to constract a shared foreign
sality relationships between the series. Findings showed a policy, a shared defense policy and even an EU Constitu-
bi-directional causality between economic growth and en- tion, the EU could not achieve a progress in making na-
ergy consumption for both short-run and long-run. How- tional shared energy policies, yet.
ever none of the sectors showed bi-directional relationship
for short and long-runs together. The EU imports approximately 80% of its petroleum
and 60% of natural gas consumption [2]. It is known that
the EU’s dependency of energy sources is going to grow
KEYWORDS: after attendance of Turkey and other East Block countries
Energy, sectors, growth, causality, EU
are joined into the union. Heads of the European countries
demanded for a correct European energy policy at the end
1. INTRODUCTION of 2005. This caused the European Commission to publish
a Green Paper (Economical, Sustainable, and Safe energy)
The increase in petroleum prices from 1970’s to in 2006 on the development of a common, consistent Eu-
1990’s, and the increasing petroleum demands of the de- ropean Energy Policy [3]. Therefore, empirical studies on
veloped and developing countries and economic crisis the economic growth and energy consumption for EU are
therewith put forward the requirement for the countries to highly important.
keep their energy policies dynamic. The reason is that en-
Fig. 1 clearly shows that final energy consumption and
ergy is significant for the growth of the economics. The
GDP rates move together. There is a decrease in the begin-
different findings from the first empirical study which in-
ning of the 1990’s in energy consumption. Rising energy
vestigated relationship energy and economic growth by
prices in those years can be said to have an effect on this
Kraft and Kraft [1] and once the rest of the studies which
decrease. Energy consumption has rapidly increased be-
have been carried out for over 30 years have been dis-
tween the years 1994 to mid 2000’s yet it has shown a de-
cussed. These discussions are important for the countries
crease due to the world economical crisis in that year. A sim-
in order to shape their energy policies.
ilar explanation can be given also for economic growth.
If energy consumption causes economic growth, a de- However the decrease in energy intensity did not have much
crease in energy consumption would have a negative effect influence on economic growth. This figure is definitely far
on growth. If energy consumption does not cause economic from explaining the causality relationship between them.
growth then energy protection policies would have no im-
pact on growth. Finally, if results of empirical studies sug- There are very few studies concerning economic growth
gest that there is a bi-directional relationship between en- and energy. Also, these few studies [3-5] only analysed the
ergy consumption and economic growth, then any global relationship between total economic growth and total en-
policy to reduce energy consumption for decreasing emis- ergy/electric consumption in the EU member countries.
sions would have an impact on the economic growth of However, energy consumption might be in different densi-
countries. ties and of different importance levels for main sectors.
Fig. 2 illustrate information on sectoral energy con-
* Corresponding author sumption from 1990 to 2011 in EU countries. The indus-
trial sector has shown fluctuation some years which are

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© by PSP Volume 24 – No 5. 2015 Fresenius Environmental Bulletin

1990-1994, 2008. In these years, there was an increase of on total economic level. Whereas the studies found some
oil prices and economic crises. On the other hand, transport evidences for the causality in sectoral level.
and services sectors show increasing energy consumption
from 1990 to 2011. This paper, was performed on the total economy and
on main sectors, (industry, service, transport and agricul-
In several studies [6-8] were investigated the relation- ture). The analysis were tested for individually main sec-
ship between economic growth and energy consumption tors in the EU. The results may be important for shared pol-
both on total economy and the sectoral level. In these studies icy makers and appliers in EU.
were not found the relationship between energy and growth

FIGURE 1 - Final energy consumption and GDP in the EU

FIGURE 2 - The plots energy consumption for the EU countries (000 tonnes of oil equivalent)

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© by PSP Volume 24 – No 5. 2015 Fresenius Environmental Bulletin

2. METHODS each individual in the panel, namely, H0 : βi = 0 ∀i, against


the alternative H1 : βi < 0, i = 1, . . . ,N1 ; βi = 0, i = N1 + 1,
In this study data on 27 EU countries (Countries except . . . ,N, which allows for some of the individual series to be
Malta: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech
integrated. The proposed Ztbar (p,ƿ) statistic converges in
Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary,
distribution to a standard normal variate sequentially, as
Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Nether-
T→ ∞ followed by N.
lands, Estonia, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slo-
venia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, Greece) have been We formula LLC unit root test is on Eg(1) but it con-
composed. The data covered the period between1990- siders the coefficients of the autoregressive term as homo-
2011. The dataset was established from Eurostat and the geneous across all individuals, that is, βi = βi ∀i, LLC tests
World Bank. In Table 1, descriptions of all series are out- the null hypothesis that each individual in the panel has in-
lined. tegrated time series, that is, H0 : βi = β = 0 ∀i, against the
alternative H0 : βi = β < 0 ∀i. For this reason, under the
TABLE 1 – Descriptions of Series alternative, all single series are stationary. The resulting
statistic, t*, asymptotically follows a standard normal dis-
Series Description
Energy consumption series
tribution.
(000 tonnes of oil equiva- Following ADF specification include LLC and BRT
lent) tests. There are two different ways for separating the BRT
TOTECit Total energy consumption
INDECit Industry sector’s energy consumption
method from LLC. First of all, only the autoregressive por-
TRSECit Transport sector’s energy consumption tion (and not the exogenous components) is removed when
SERECit Service sector’s energy consumption constructing the standardized proxies. Second, the proxies
AGRECit Agriculture sector’s energy consumption are transformed and detrended. The BRT method requires
Economic sectors series only a specification of the number of lags used in each
(current US$)
GDPit Gross Domestic Product
crosssection ADF regression, pi and the exogenous regres-
(total economic growth) sors.
INDit Industry value added We used Pedroni’s method [18] to the panel cointegra-
SERit Service value added
tion test following cointegrating regression:
AGRit Agriculture value added
Notes: i; country and t; time, all series are naturel logarithm
, 1, … ,
In this study panel data analysis was used. This analy- 1, … 2
sis technique is important for the reliability of the analyses. Where, is the intercept term and is a time trend
Panel series ensure a larger number of data increasing the for each countries. is a slope coefficient.
degrees of freedom and reducing the multicollinearity
Eq. (3) and Eq. (4) show panel Vector Autoregression
problem between the regressors. Thus, panel data allows
(VAR) models to causality analysis for the Panel series.
for more powerful statistical tests and the test statistics as-
ymptotically follow a normal distribution [9]. Several stud-
ies used panel data models [10-14]. ,

This study use three different panel unit root tests in-
cluding Im, Pesaran, and Shin [15] (hereinreferred to as
IPS); Levin, Lin and Chu [16] (herein referred to as LLC); , 3
Breitung [17] (herein referred to as BRT) to assess the sta-
tionary properties of the used variables.
Eq (1) shows the IPS analysis model: ,

, 4
∆ , ∆ , ,

1, … , , 1, … , 1
Where and represents country-specific effects
of i th each country in the panel and and are the
In this formula yit represents the series for Ith country. distortion terms. The correlation between variables are cal-
pi shows the number of lags selected for the Augmented culated by Applying Ordinary Least Square (OLS) to Eqs.
Dickey–Fuller (ADF) unit root regression and it are inde- (3) and (4).
pendently and normally distributed random variables for Cointegrated variable sets have a representation of er-
all i and t with zero means and finite heterogeneous vari- ror correction. Therefore Vector Corrected Model (VECM)
ances . IPS tests the null hypothesis of the unit root for allows to distinguish between a long-run and short-run re-

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© by PSP Volume 24 – No 5. 2015 Fresenius Environmental Bulletin

lationship of variables we consider the following panel


based VECM : ∆ ∆ ,

∆ ∆ , , ,

∆ 6
, , Where, ECT is the error correction term obtained from
the residuals of the estimated cointegrating [3]. ETC coef-
∆ 5 ficients provides information to the long-run equilibrium
levels.

TABLE 2 – Panel unit root tests for EU country energy and economic variables

Variable Panel Specifications Unit root tests Levels First Differences


LLC -7.059c -10.055c
Individual effects
IPS -6.804c -11.762c
TOTEC
LLC 1.867 -5.829c
Total energy consumption
Individual effects and trends BRT -1.001 -2.286c
IPS -0.501 -9.884c
LLC -6.296c -14.473c
Individual effects
IPS -3.043c -13.750c
INDEC
LLC -3.315c -10.642c
Industry sector’s energy consumption
Individual effects and trends BRT 3.787 0.549
IPS -0.573 -11.883c
LLC -1.784b -17.107c
Individual effects
IPS 0.303 -15.885c
SEREC
LLC -1.293a -16.460c
Service sector’s energy consumption
Individual effects and trends BRT 1.540 -8.214c
IPS -0.534 -16.871c
LLC -4.632c -16.120c
Individual effects
IPS -2.183b -13.563c
AGREC
LLC -1.078 -14.182c
Agriculture sector’s energy consumption
Individual effects and trends BRT 2.551 -5.110c
IPS -1.020 -11.598c
LLC 1.406 -9.697c
Individual effects
IPS 4.902 -7.630c
GDP
LLC -1.315a -8.339c
Gross Domestic Product
Individual effects and trends BRT 0.419 -2.879c
IPS -2.828c -4.868c
LLC 1.554 -10.880c
Individual effects
IND IPS 4.219 -8.878c
Industry value added LLC -1.168 -8.970c
Individual effects and trends BRT -1.830b -4.046c
IPS -1.209 -5.760c
LLC -5.991c -9.749c
Individual effects
IPS -0.261 -9.760c
TRS
LLC 1.045 -13.457c
Transport value added
Individual effects and trends BRT 2.290 -2.713b
IPS -0.876 -12.453c
LLC 0.878 -10.455c
Individual effects
IPS 5.159 -7.554c
SER
LLC -1.731b -7.163c
Service value added
Individual effects and trends BRT 0.442 -2.037b
IPS 2.690c -4.109c
LLC -1.252 -14.542c
Individual effects
AGR IPS -1.083 -14.029c
Agriculture value added LLC -4.582c -11.918c
Individual effects and trends BRT -0.197 -5.619c
IPS -2.889c -10.576c
Notes: The lag length has been chosen based on minimum AIC, H0: assumes unit root process.
a,b,c
Significant at the 10%,5%,1% respectively.

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© by PSP Volume 24 – No 5. 2015 Fresenius Environmental Bulletin

3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION series in levels would thus be null. But, when using the first
differences, the null of unit roots was violently rejected at
In this study, firstly, the statistical properties were the 1% significance level for whole series. Thus, it was de-
tested of the time series. We have applied the following duced that whole the series were non-stationary and inte-
unit root tests for panel data: IPS, BRT and LLC for the grated of order one.
stationarity of variables. The tests have been calculated un-
der two varied property that individual effects or individual Taking these results into account, we concluded that
effects and trends. The test results reported in Table 2.The the series were integrated of order one and proceeded to
unit root hypothesis couldnot be rejected when the varia- test for cointegration. The results of panel cointegration
bles were taken in levels and any causal deduction from the tests based on Eq. (2) are shown in Table 3. The analysis

TABLE 3 –The results of Panel Cointegration analysis

Total Economy
Panel v 0.090 Group rho 0.252
Panel rho -1.867b Group PP -4.576c
Panel PP -6.831c Group ADF -4.816c
c
Panel ADF -8.631
Industry
Panel v -0.261 Group rho 0.463
Panel rho -1.431a Group PP -4.294c
Panel PP -6.429c Group ADF -4.784c
c
Panel ADF -7.319
Transport
Panel v 1.196 Group rho 1.291
Panel rho -1.509a Group PP -2.018b
Panel PP -3.815c Group ADF -4.447c
Panel ADF -5.464c
Services
Panel v 0.554 Group rho -0.534
Panel rho -2.538c Group PP -3.969c
Panel PP -4.814c Group ADF -4.864c
Panel ADF -5.271c
Agriculture
Panel v -0.215 Group rho 1.548
Panel rho -0.183 Group PP -2.850c
Panel PP -2.032b Group ADF -2.970c
Panel ADF -0.970
Notes: Trend assumptions, no deterministic trend.
The lag length has been chosen based on minimum AIC Lag selection: based on Modified Akaike
a,b,c
Significant at the 10%,5%,1% respectively.

TABLE 4 – The results of Panel VECM causality analysis

Short-run Long-run
Total Economy ∆GDP ∆TOTEC ECT
∆GDP - 2.659c -4.967c
∆TOTEC 4.733c - -3.009c
Industry ∆IND ∆INDEC ECT
∆IND - 0.351 -5.368c
∆INDEC 28.236c - -1.002
Transport ∆GDP ∆TRSEC
∆GDP - 0.536 -6.764c
∆TRSEC 3.606c - -5.393c
Services ∆SER ∆SEREC ECT
∆SER - 8.275c -5.429c
∆SEREC 5.545c - 3.680
Agriculture ∆AGR ∆AGREC ECT
∆AGR - 1.943 -1.455
∆AGREC 2.443a - -3.392c
Note: The heteroschedasticity of the error terms is corrected by using white robust
standard errors both in periods. To correct for possible autocorrelation was used
the Newey-West estimator of the weighting matrix in the GMM criterion.
Note: a,b,cSignificant at the 10%,5%,1% repectively.

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© by PSP Volume 24 – No 5. 2015 Fresenius Environmental Bulletin

TABLE 5 – Causality directions in the total economy and the sectors

Energy Economic Short-run Long-run


consumption growth
Total Economy ∆TOTEC ∆GDP 0.82 ↔ 0.26 -0.05 ↔ -0.01
Industry ∆INDEC ∆IND 0.03 ← 0.25 -0.03 → -
Transport ∆TRSEC ∆GDP 0.02 ← 0.14 -0.02 ↔ -0.03
Services ∆SEREC ∆SER 0.05 ↔ 0.11 -0.03 → -
Agriculture ∆AGREC ∆AGR 0.03 ← 0.01 - ← -0.02

of cointegration on bivariate models for the EU supported Different from these studies, our study proved that
the being of a long-run relationship to emphasise the statis- there was a strong relationship between energy consump-
tical stability of the connection between the variables ex- tion and economic growth in the EU for both short and
amined here. long-runs. This is an important result which the EU should
We obtained Wald F-test on the significance of the co- take into consideration in the course of preparing a shared
efficients by estimated the VECM for all the sectors and all energy policy.
economy, We carried two different Granger causality rela-
tionships: a short-run causality, testing the significance of 3.2 Industry sector
the coefficients related to the lagged economic and energy We have found evidence for uni-directional long-run
variables (H0: 0 and 0 = for all i in eq. [5 and 6]),a as well as short-run causality in the industry sector. This
long-run causality related to the coefficient for the ECT term relationship is from IND to INDEC for short-run and from
(H0: = 0 for all i in eq. [5 and 6]), INDEC to IND for long-run. The change in the industry
In Table 4 and Table 5 the results of the VECM with sector of EU will effect energy consumption of the sector
two simultaneous equations of the causal relationships be- for short run. On the other hand, changes in the energy con-
tween energy consumption and economic growth for the all sumption of the sector will effect the growth of the sector
economy and the four energy sectors for the EU are re- in long run. In this case, it can be said that Union’s energy
ported. policies which will be applied in all members of the EU are
highly important for the dynamism of the industry sector.
Table 4 provides knowledge in terms of Wald F-test
on the coefficients. On the other hand in Table 5, the same
3.3 Transport sector
results are briefed to the short and long-run elasticities
when the coefficients are statistically significant. According to the empirical results, there was a uni-di-
It was found that there were different results in Table rectional causality from GDP to TRSEC for short run where
4 and 5 for each of the sectors. These results supported our as it was bi-directional between them for long run in the
research hypothesis. Each result was interpreted for each transport sector. Our results for the transport sector empha-
sector and economy level below. sizes that energy consumption is inevitable in EU. We have
noticed that Gross [8] has made a similar study for the US
3.1 Economy level and reported the same relationship.
There was a bi-directional causality relationship for 3.4 Services sector
both short and long runs between general economic growth
and total energy consumption in the EU. This result showed We have found a bi-directional causality in short term
that there was a fine relationship between economic growth and a uni-directional causality from SER to SEREC in long-
and total energy consumption in the EU. In a previous run for services sector. Results meant that the growth of ser-
study, the way and the presence of the causality for short vices sector in short term depends on energy consumption
and long runs on country basis was researched for 15 of the and the change in the energy consumption of the sector
EU member countries and different results for each country would change upon the growth speed of the sector. This
were recorded [4]. In another study [3] carried out for 12 Eu- result was also valid for the long-run. The first ranking sec-
ropean countries with panel methodology, a bidirectional but tor according to sectoral growth rates for especially both
weak causality was found between energy prices and GDP developing and developed economies is the services sector.
and electricity consumption and energy prices. Menagaki [5] In that case, the importance of energy consumption is clear
studied the causal relationship has been both studied be- for the sustainable growth of the services sector.
tween economic growth and renewable energy and also green-
3.5 Agriculture sector
house gas emissions and employment for the period between
the years 1997–2007 for 27 European countries. The empiri- The relationship between the growth in agricultural
cal results did not confirm causality between renewable en- sector and energy consumption shows a very different pat-
ergy consumption and GDP, although panel causality tests tern from other sectors in the EU, which is the fact that it
unfold short-run relationships between renewable energy is shaped by a common European policy and supported by
and greenhouse gas emissions and employment. highly important preservation programs. This relationship

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© by PSP Volume 24 – No 5. 2015 Fresenius Environmental Bulletin

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Received: January 16, 2015


Accepted: February 09, 2015

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR

Gülistan Erdal
Gaziosmanpasa University
Faculty of Agriculture
Department of Agricultural Economics
Tokat
TURKEY

Phone: +90-356-2521480
Fax: +90-356-2521488
E-mail: glerdal2@yahoo.com

FEB/ Vol 24/ No 5/ 2015 – pages 1641 - 1648

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