British Columbia

Provincial Vote Intentions

23rd October 2020
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on results of
a survey conducted between October 22nd-23rd,
2020 among a sample of 704 adults, 18 years of age
or older, living in British Columbia. The survey was
conducted using automated telephone interviews
(Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on
both landlines and cellular phones. The survey
is intended to represent the voting population of
British Columbia.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research
and was not sponsored by a third party.
The sampling frame was derived from both a
national telephone directory compiled by Mainstreet
Research from various commerically available
sources and random digit dialing. The part of the
survey that dialed from the directory was conducted
as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian provinces. In
the case of random digit dials, respondents were
asked the additional question of what region of the
country they resided in.
The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.7% and is
accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this report)
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Summary of Findings
• In our final survey of the 2020 British Columbia election, we find the
NDP led by John Horgan with a large lead over the BC Liberals and the
Greens - large enough to win a large majority on Saturday.

• Among decided and leaning voters, the BC NDP has 50.5% support,
while the BC Liberals led by Andrew Wilkinson have 30.6%, the Greens led
by Sonia Fursteneau has 15.9%.

• The NDP has commanding leads in every region of the province,

enjoying 52% in Metro Vancouver, just over 46% in Vancouver Island, and
just over 50% in the rest of British Columbia.

• Likewise, the NDP enjoys large leads among both men and women
and among all age groups.

• Moreover, the NDP enjoys a substantial lead among respondents who

said they already voted.

• Among those who said they already voted either via mail or advance
voting, the NDP is at 55%, while the Liberals have 28%, and the Greens are
16%.

• This gap points to the possibility that the NDP will overperform our
estimates on Election Day, while the BC Liberals may underperform.
 If an electionAll
All Voters Voters
were held today,Decided and Leaning
which party Voters
would you vote for?

10.6% 3%
10.6%
2.2% 15.9%
2.2%

13.8%
13.8%
45.8%
45.8%
All Voters
All Voters Decided and Leaning Voters 50.5%

30.6%

27.6%
27.6%

NDP BC Liberals Greens Another Party Undecided

NDP BC Liberals Greens Another Party Undecided NDP BC Liberals Greens Another Party

Have you voted already – either through in-person or mail-in

advance voting?
(broken out by provincial vote intention)

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5
1.3%
0 55.1% 28.1% 15.6% 42.2% 35.1% 16.6% 6.1%
Yes No

NDP BC Liberals Greens Another Party

Breakout Tables
If the provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(All Voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Vancouver CMA Vancouver Island Elsewhere in BC
NDP, Horgan 45.8% 42.6% 48.9% 49.5% 41% 45.9% 46.3% 48.3% 43.7% 42.6%
Liberal, Wilkinson 27.6% 30.3% 25% 24.4% 29.4% 29% 27.8% 30% 15.7% 30.6%
Green, Fursteneau 13.8% 12.2% 15.3% 14.6% 15.2% 11.9% 13.6% 11.4% 29.6% 8.6%
Another Party 2.2% 2.3% 2% 1% 2.9% 2.9% 1.7% 1.6% 3.2% 2.4%
Undecided 10.6% 12.5% 8.8% 10.4% 11.5% 10.2% 10.6% 8.7% 7.8% 15.8%
Unweighted Frequency 704 388 316 106 192 239 167 372 132 200
Weighted Frequency 704 347 357 190 171 194 149 371 124 209

(Leaning Voters With Undecided Totals)

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Vancouver CMA Vancouver Island Elsewhere in BC
NDP, Horgan 47.7% 45.3% 50% 51.9% 43.7% 47.3% 47.4% 50.1% 44.8% 45.1%
Liberal, Wilkinson 28.7% 31.6% 25.8% 25.3% 31% 30.3% 28.3% 30.8% 17.7% 31.4%
Green, Fursteneau 15.1% 13.5% 16.7% 15.5% 16.2% 14% 14.9% 13% 30.9% 9.5%
Another Party 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 1.9% 2.9% 3.9% 2.5% 2.1% 3.2% 3.9%
Undecided 5.7% 6.8% 4.6% 5.4% 6.1% 4.6% 6.9% 4% 3.3% 10%
Unweighted Frequency 704 388 316 106 192 239 167 372 132 200
Weighted Frequency 704 347 357 190 171 194 149 371 124 209

(Decided And Leaning Voters)

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Vancouver CMA Vancouver Island Elsewhere in BC
NDP, Horgan 50.5% 48.6% 52.4% 55.1% 46.6% 49.4% 50.7% 52.1% 46.4% 50.1%
Liberal, Wilkinson 30.6% 34.1% 27.2% 26.8% 33.2% 31.8% 30.5% 32.2% 18.4% 35%
Green, Fursteneau 15.9% 14.4% 17.4% 16.1% 17.2% 14.5% 16% 13.5% 31.9% 10.6%
Another Party 3% 3% 3% 2% 3.1% 4.2% 2.7% 2.2% 3.4% 4.3%
Unweighted Frequency 664 363 301 100 180 228 156 357 128 179
Weighted Frequency 664 327 337 179 162 183 140 349 117 197
Questionnaire
Have you voted already – either through in-person or mail-in advance voting?
Yes
No

If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
The British Columbia New Democratic Party led by John Horgan
The British Columbia Liberal Party led by Andrew Wilkinson
The Green Party of British Columbia led by Sonia Furstenau
The British Columbia Conservative Party led by Trevor Bolin
Another Party
Undecided

And which party are you leaning towards? (only asked of those who said they were
undecided)
The British Columbia New Democratic Party led by John Horgan
The British Columbia Liberal Party led by Andrew Wilkinson
The Green Party of British Columbia led by Sonia Furstenau
The British Columbia Conservative Party led by Trevor Bolin
Another Party
Undecided

What is your gender?

Male
Female

What is your age group?

18 to 34 years of age
35 to 49 years of age
50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older

And what region do you live in?

Metro Vancouver
Vancouver Island
Elsewhere in BC
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on October 22nd-23rd,
2020, among a sample of 704 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in British Columbia. The
survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviewed on
both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of
British Columbia.

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was not sponsored by a third party.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by Mainstreet
Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing. The survey
that dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of British Columbia. In the case
of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question of what region of the
province they resided in. Respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number.
The calls were staggered over different times of day and two days to maximize the chances of
making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as possible
across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. If a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is
added in parenthesis preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in British Columbia. The population parameters used for weighting are
age, gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.7% at the 95% confidence level.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.
Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but
not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.