Adaptive Delta Planning

and supporting tools

Dutch perspective on Manila Bay

Tjitte Albert Nauta

“PLATFORMS FOR PROGRESS AND PROSPERITY: BUILDING

LEGACY ISLANDS ON WATER”
A Land Reclamation and Dredging Summit
 This presentation

• Deltares
• Adaptive delta planning
• The Netherlands
• Manila Bay
• Some supporting tools
The Dutch Water Institute
Deltares is a not-for-profit,
independent and internationally
operating research and specialist
consultancy institute, incorporating
advanced expertise on water and
subsurface.

Deltares is at the forefront in the

development, distribution and
application of expert knowledge and
(open source / freeware) software for
safe and sustainable development and
preservation of delta, coastal and
fluvial areas .
Societal themes

Collaboration
 Deltares software
Specialist advise Knowledge sharing

Research Collaboration
 ‘If you fail to plan, you plan to fail’
Stand-alone Compilation of Traditional Adaptive delta
projects projects master planning planning

Project-based Package of individual Strategy as a blue Dynamic strategy

projects print for the future
Optimized and Dealing with an
integrated uncertain future
Low regret? Low regret? No regret No future regret
Immediate Immediate Implementation Implementation
implementation implementation during planning during planning
period (±25 years) period (±100 years)
Short term Short to medium Short to longer term Short to long term
term
 Adaptive Delta Planning – What’s new?
What is not new?
• for centuries we adapted our delta to change
• but often in response to (near) disasters
• or with a static scenario analysis
What is new:
• anticipate the change (SLR-CC) or consider transitions
• but these changes are uncertain
• this requires new approaches and methods
Dealing with uncertainties is the key issue of adaptive
(delta) planning:
• “what to do and when to do it?”
• “not too much, not too little”
• “not too early, nor too late”
An adaptation pathway map shows different possible sequences of decisions to
achieve objectives. A scorecard helps to evaluate the pathways and decisions.
Evaluating adaptation pathways instead of single measures can make societal
impacts of path-dependency explicit
Net present value (pathway8)

Expected costs Expected benefits

(avoided damages, co-benefits)

Initial Recurrent Initial Recurrent

Transfer BenefitsActionC BenefitsActionD
CostActionC + CostActionC + cost (tx)
+ CostActionD + CostActionD
(t1…tx)
+ (t1…tx)
(t=1) (t1…tx) (tx…T) (tx…T)
 Dutch Delta Programme:
How can we protect the Dutch Delta against climate change and
sea level rise and ensure water supply?
 Delta Programme

Prepare the Rhine delta for the future.

Delta Programme, The Netherlands
“Adaptation pathways offer a strong approach to show which
options are needed and when they should be implemented and
how long-term objectives influence short-term decisions.”
(Delta Programme 2015)

Raise +1.1 m

Decrease +0.8 m

Raise level +0.6 m

Supply
actions Decrease -0.6 m

Raise level +0.1 m

More inflow IJssel

Flexible water levels
Current
More efficient
Demand water use
actions Change crops

Change land use

 Example: “tipping point”
Maeslantkering
1/10 per yearà

Sea level rise

+ 75 cm: 1 /y
+ 150 cm: 10 /y
+ 300 cm: 100 /y

à Increasing
coincidence with
river floods

13
Findings of the Dutch Risk Reduction Mission on the
Master Planning for the Manila Bay Area
August 5 – 21, 2015

DRR team and

NEDA IS staff
 Key issues

• Pollution / ecosystem degradation

• Congestion / lack of space / housing
• Livelihood / social issues
• Sustainable economic development / (air-) port,
shipping / industry
• Institutional setting
• Soil subsidence
• Climate change
• …
 Key Environmental Problems

• Degradation of habitats
• Deterioration of water quality
• Coastal erosion and siltation
• Overexploitation of fishery resources
• Loss of biodiversity
• Lack of facilities for the treatment of domestic
and industrial wastes
 Scope of the DRR mission

• Describe a structured master

planning approach that can pave the
way to set clear and widely accepted
priorities and provide a solid
framework for planning, financing,
investment and implementation of
effective, feasible and sustainable
interventions now and for the
future.
• Approach should aim at minimizing
threats and maximizing
opportunities leading to an
increased state of welfare and an
improved investment climate ->
inclusive growth
 By doing so the plan should pave the way to

• A more structured implementation

framework and a more cost-efficient and
coherent investment plan of necessary water
management and development projects and
programs;
• An improved institutional setting addressing
overall Manila Bay management and
development, including procedures for
concessions, solicited proposals and tenders;
• Sustainable development and optimal
integration of spatial planning and water
management, based upon a sound knowledge
of the functioning of the system, the various
users demands and accurate risk assessments;
• Improved state of preparedness and
increased resilience to disasters.
 Management and Development Master Planning:
finding sustainable solutions for complex problems
Integrated: multi-actor / multi-level / multi-sector / multi-system
and all that together…(from short to long term)
 Recognizing
• 53% of the domestic product / 25 million people
• 2008 and 2010 Supreme Court decisions on Manila Bay (G.R.
No. 171947-48 or the Mandamus on the Manila Bay clean up)
• Many other plan efforts (national / sector plans, LGU
comprehensive municipal development and land use plans,
river basin plans, OPMBCS, etc.)
• Many unsolicited development proposals
• Complex institutional setting
• ….
http://link.springer.com/book/10.1007%2F978-3-319-44234-1
Strategic (master planning) and operational planning (action planning)

Initiation

Government
commitment
Inception
Enabling
conditions
Objectives and
criteria

Evaluation / Situation analysis

Assess progress Problem
Update plan description
Planning process

Stakeholders
participation

Implementation
Strategy building
Legal,
Preferred
Institutional
strategy
Financial
Investment
planning

Action plan
 Institutional implement
Technical realisation
Social acceptability
Financial capacity

Adaptivecapacity
Environmental
PAMPANGA RIVER BASIN

acceptability
SCORE ON
EASE OF

ability
IMPLEMENTATION

Agriculture and Fisheries

Attain more sustainable fisheries +/- - ++ + +/- + 8
Increase irrigation efficiency + + + - +/- + 8
Repair and rehabilitation of existing IS - + +/- - +/- + 5
Up scaling existing IS - + +/- - +/- + 5
Construct new irrigation- / control structures -- +/- - -- +/- +/- 2
Management of flood and sediment disasters

Participatory and
Non structural DRR measures + + +/- + - + 8
Maintenance and rehab. existing structures and bodies - + +/- - + - 5
New structural measures -- +/- - -- - +/- 1
Municipal Water Supply, Sanitation and Sewerage

informed planning
Sewage and disposal management +/- ++ ++ - +/- + 8
Provide sanitary facilities +/- ++ + - + +/- 8
Groundwater management + +/- + +/- + +/- 8
Rehabilitation of existing structures - ++ + - +/- + 7
New conveyance and control structures -- + +/- -- - - 2
Watershed management

and decision making

Community based forestry program + + ++ + - + 9
Forest protections through law and regulating ++ - ++ + -- ++ 8
Urban greening +/- + ++ - +/- + 8
Community based Eco Tourism +/- +/- ++ +/- - ++ 8

process
Mangrove protection + - ++ +/- - + 7
Sustainable Land Management +/- - ++ - + + 7
Forest protection and development - - ++ - +/- + 5
Water related environmental management
Capacity building in governance + +/- + + -- ++ 8
Industrial pollution control +/- + ++ - - + 7
Cleaning of water ways - + ++ - +/- + 7
Promote adoption of cleaner prod. meth. in aquaculture. + - ++ +/- +/- +/- 7
Domestic solid waste management - +/- ++ +/- - + 6
Green energy production from organic waste +/- +/- ++ -- +/- + 6
Promote adoption of cleaner prod. meth. in industries +/- + ++ -- +/- +/- 6
Other
Surface water monitoring + +/- +/- +/- + + 8
Capacity building on water allocation and distribution +/- +/- +/- + - ++ 7
Groundwater monitoring +/- +/- +/- +/- + + 7
Recovery reliability of Water Supply - +/- +/- - - ++ 5
I – Inception Enabling Conditions
Setting-up
Defining Analysis
Stakeholder
Conditions
Process
Objectives and
Criteria

II – Situation analysis

Stakeholders and Decision-makers / Capacity Building

Natural Socio-Economic
Resources
system system

Institu-tional
system
Scenario
Base case Analysis
Analysis

Problem
description Data
and
(Modelling)
Potential
Reference Measures Tools
Case

No regrets

III – Strategy Building

Alternative Strategies
Adaptive
Management
Analysis
Preferred
Strategy

IV – Action planning Investment Planning

Feasibility and
Promotion EIA Design

V– Implementation Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation

Current World Bank project ‘Economic Analysis Integrating Uncertainty into
Adaptation Investment Decisions in the Philippines’: Central Cebu, Tacloban and
Laguna de Bay.

Expected costs Expected benefits

(avoided damages, co-benefits)

Initial Recurrent Initial Recurrent

Transfer BenefitsActionC BenefitsActionD
CostActionC + CostActionC + cost (tx)
+ CostActionD + CostActionD
(t1…tx)
+ (t1…tx)
(t=1) (t1…tx) (tx…T) (tx…T)
Delft3D (open source): from upstream pollution to downstream ecological effects
 Tropical Cyclone – September 2011

22 april 2017
 Maximum water levels

22 april 2017
 Making use of new data

Lidar data

aqua-monitor.deltares.nl

new land / new water

Interactive modelling
 Exposure data and Hazard forecast

22 april 2017
 Examples (within Delft-FEWS)
Delft3D-FLOW
New approaches: e.g. ‘Building with Nature’
 Need for a robust and flexible strategy

‘Programmatic Environmental Assessment, Planning and Engineering Studies

for the Coastal Adaptation Strategy Formulation in the Manila Bay Area’

‘Manila Bay Sustainable Development Master Plan’

 Thank you for
your attention

Questions?

“PLATFORMS FOR PROGRESS AND PROSPERITY: BUILDING

LEGACY ISLANDS ON WATER”
A Land Reclamation and Dredging Summit