Exercise 1.

Laplace, Wald or pessimistic, optimistic, Hurwicz and

Savage criteria (Profit Matrix):

In the company ABC several alternatives are presented to choose the best
technology of four possible, whose performance depends on the adaptation
of the workers who will manipulate the equipments that comprise it. The
expected benefits of each alternative and degree of adaptation of the
workers are given in the table, in millions of pesos ($). For Hurwicz please
assume an alpha of 0,7.

Solution

Technology 1=(2118 +2168+2213+2265+2330)/(1 /5)=2218.8

Technology 2=(2109+ 2158+ 2245+2252+2328)/(1/5)=2218.4

Technology 3=( 2145+2177+2232+2256+2303)/(1 /5)=2222.6

Technology 4=(2130+ 2166+2206+2255+2322)/(1/5)=2215.8

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Technology 5=( 2128+ 2165+2213+2275+2335)/(1/5)=2223.2

máx a i ¿

n
1
VE= ∑ Gij=¿
n j =1

Outcome:

With the criteria laplace the technology 5 had a better result.

Criterion of Wald pesimista VE=Max( Min( R ij ))=¿

Criterio de Wald Optimista VE=Max( Max ( R ij ) )

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Result: With the criterion of wald being optimistic, the highest result is
technology 5

Hurwicz criterio VE=Max ( Rij )∗á+ Min ( Rij )∗( 1−á )

Outcome:

With the Hurwicz criterion selecting an alpha of 0.7 the result with the best
rating is technology 5

Savage criterio

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Exercise 2. Criteria of Laplace, Wald or pessimistic, optimistic,
Hurwicz and Savage (Cost matrix):

A warehouse of finished products that leases its services to imports from the
USA, must plan its level of supply to satisfy the demand of its customers in
the day of love and friendship. The exact number of crates is not known, but
is expected to fall into one of five categories: 610, 630, 680, 715 and 730
crates. There are therefore four levels of supply. The deviation from the
number of hoppers is expected to result in additional costs, either due to
excessive supplies or because demand can not be met. The table below
shows the costs in hundreds of dollars (US $). For Hurwicz please assume an
alpha of 0,75

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Solution

According to Table 3 by applying the criteria of Laplace, Wald or pessimistic,

optimistic criteria, Hurwicz and Savage determine the optimal decision level
according to the benefit criteria.

Criterion of Wald pessimistic VE=Min( Max (R ij ))

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Criterion of Wald optimistic VE=Min(Min(R ij ))

Criterion of Hurwichz VE=Min ( Rij )∗á+ Max ( Rij )∗(1−á)

Criterion of Savage

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 Exercise 3. Criteria of Laplace, Wald or pessimistic, optimistic,
Hurwicz and Savage (Cost matrix):

A warehouse of finished products that leases its services to imports from the
USA, must plan its level of supply to satisfy the demand of its customers in
the day of love and friendship. The exact number of crates is not known, but
is expected to fall into one of five categories: 580, 720, 750, 790 and 830
crates. There are therefore four levels of supply. The deviation from the
number of hoppers is expected to result in additional costs, either due to
excessive supplies or because demand can not be met. The table below
shows the costs in hundreds of dollars (US $). For Hurwicz please assume an
alpha of 0,55.

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Solution

According to Table 3 by applying the criteria of Laplace, Wald or pessimistic,

optimistic criteria, Hurwicz and Savage determine the optimal decision level
according to the benefit criteria.

Criterion of Laplace: Future events are equiprobable.

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With the criterion of Laplace, e1(580) was chosen as the optimal decision
level

Criterion of Wald pessimistic VE=Min(Max ( Rij ) )

Criterion of Wald optimistic VE=Min(Min ( Rij ) )

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 Criterion of Hurwichz VE=Min ( Rij )∗á+ Max ( Rij )∗(1−á)

CONCLUSION

As we have seen, probability operations are even used to find unspecified

answers through the inductive method. The graphs allow us to see the
results in a much more understandable way and the operations with
matrices throw us to specific results when we have a lot of information to
handle.

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 REFERENCES

Sharma, J. K. (2016). Operations Research: Theory and Applications (Vol.

Sixthedition). New Delhi: Laxmi Publications Pvt Ltd. Retrieved from
http://search.ebscohost.com.bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co/login.aspx?
direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=1950625&lang=es&site=eds-live&scope=site

Llinás Solano, H. (2018). Introducción a La Teoría De La Probabilidad.

Barranquilla: Universidad del Norte. Retrieved from
http://search.ebscohost.com.bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co/login.aspx?
direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=1800048&lang=es&site=eds-live&scope=site

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Veloza, Luis Carlos, (2016). Operaciones con matrices. [Video]. Recuperado
de http://hdl.handle.net/10596/7095

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