CONSENSUS FORECAST

United States • May 2019

UNITED STATES 2
CALENDAR 19
NOTES 21

Contributors
OLIVER REYNOLDS
PUBLICATION DATE 30 April 2019 MAJOR ECONOMIES ECONOMIST
FORECASTS COLLECTED 23 April - 28 April 2019
INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 28 April 2019 ARNE POHLMAN RICARD TORNÉ THOMAS FENGE
NEXT EDITION 28 May 2019 Chief Economist Lead Economist Head of Data
Solutions

ANGELA BOUZANIS WILLIAM O’CONNELL JOSÉ DANIEL MARÍN

Senior Economist Editor Data Scientist
NICOLAS J. AGUILAR JOFFREY SIMONET ADRIANA VILANOVA
Economist Economist Data Analyst
NIHAD AHMED ALMANAS STANAPEDIS JOAN ARGILAGÓS
Economist Economist Junior Data Analyst
MASSIMO BASSETTI CHRISTOPHER THOMAS PAULA ESCRIHUELA
Economist Economist Junior Data Analyst
STEVEN BURKE ANDRÉS FIORINI
Economist Junior Data Analyst
JAVIER COLATO GUILLEM FOUCAULT
Economist Junior Data Analyst
OLGA COSCODAN STÉPHANIE HOBEICHE
Economist Junior Data Analyst
JAN LAMMERSEN ROGER MEDINA
Economist Junior Data Analyst
LINDSEY ICE RICCARDO SACCHI
Economist Junior Data Analyst
OLIVER REYNOLDS ANDREU TIXIS
Economist Junior Data Analyst
FOCUSECONOMICS United States May 2019

United States
Outlook stable
United States

• Economic growth accelerated sharply in the first quarter thanks to strong

net exports and a buildup of inventories, which more than offset slowing
consumer spending and fixed investment growth. Imports contracted
largely due to frontloading in Q4, in anticipation of tariff increases on
China, while the inventory surge was partly related to softer demand,
particularly for vehicles. Shutdown effects, on the other hand, dragged on
growth. Nevertheless, monthly indicators for March suggest a rebound in
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages both private investment and consumption momentum at the end of the
2015-17 2018-20 2021-23 quarter. Turning to Q2, the trade and inventory boost should unwind and
Population (million): 323 330 336 weigh on growth, while conversely, delayed private and public spending
GDP (USD bn): 18,804 21,347 23,929
GDP per capita (USD): 58,181 64,760 71,130 due to the shutdown will provide support. Overall, consumer spending
GDP growth (%): 2.2 2.3 1.8 will likely gain steam, but weak investment in the residential property
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -3.0 -4.4 -5.1
Public Debt (% of GDP): 105 108 111
market remains a concern.
Inflation (%): 1.2 2.1 2.0
Current Account (% of GDP): -2.3 -2.5 -2.8
• Economic momentum will cool this year as a variety of factors weigh
Joffrey Simonet on activity. Higher interest rates—despite the recent halt of the Fed’s
Economist tightening cycle—and slower global growth are notable headwinds.
Moreover, trade uncertainty should persist this year—even in the event
of a trade deal with China—while fiscal stimulus effects will fade, further
dampening growth. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts 2.4% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 1.7%
4 2.6
in 2020.
2.4

3 • Inflation rebounded from 1.5% in February to 1.9% in March on higher

2.2
rent and energy prices. Headline inflation should rise further in coming
2.0 months, supported by the rebound in crude oil prices, while the core
2
inflation trend appears stable, buttressed primarily by solid wage growth.
1.8

2019 2020
FocusEconomics panelists see inflation averaging 1.9% in 2019, which is
1
Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar
1.6 unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 2.1% in 2020.
Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20

GDP, real annual variation in %, Q1 GDP, evolution of 2019 and 2020

2016 - Q4 2020. forecasts during the last 18 months. • At its last meeting on 19-20 March, the Federal Reserve left rates
unchanged at 2.25%–2.50% and signaled it would likely not raise rates
at all in 2019. In addition, the Fed unveiled its plan to further taper the
reduction of its balance sheet and plans to halt the program by the end
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts of September 2019. FocusEconomics panelists expect the federal funds
3 2.4 rate to end 2019 at 2.51% and 2020 at 2.38%.

2 2.2
• The dollar continued to gain strength during April, buttressed by higher
growth and interest rates in the U.S than in its main trading partners. A
dovish shift from the ECB and hopes for a China trade deal also supported
1 2.0
the greenback. On 26 April, the dollar index traded at 98.0, which was up
United States 2019 2020 1.3% from the same day in the prior month.
G7
0 1.8
Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar

Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2019 and 2020
variation in %, Q1 2016 - Q4 2020. forecasts during the last 18 months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast |2

FOCUSECONOMICS United States May 2019

REAL SECTOR | Strong headline GDP growth in Q1 masks weakening

trend as private spending and investment slow
Economic growth surged in the first quarter of 2019 on the back of a
positive net export contribution and a large inventory buildup, according to
an advance GDP estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA). Nevertheless, the strong print masked a further slowdown in private
consumer spending—the economy’s core growth engine—and business
fixed investment. GDP increased 3.2% in Q1 over the previous quarter in
seasonally-adjusted annualized terms (SAAR), up from a downwardly revised
2.2% in Q4 2018 (previously reported: +2.6% SAAR) and vastly exceeding
market expectations of 2.3%. In year-on-year terms, growth ticked up from
3.0% in Q4 to 3.2% in Q1.

One key takeaway from the Q1 print was the large contribution of net exports
and inventories—1.0 and 0.7 percentage points respectively—to the headline
GDP reading. This can partly be explained by the effects of the trade dispute
with China. Manufacturers had started to stockpile imports in the second half
of last year to beat a scheduled increase of tariffs on 1 January (which was
later put on hold), leading to lower imports and higher inventories in Q1. Weak
Gross Domestic Product | variation in % demand, notably in the automotive sector, also contributed to the inventory
6 4 buildup. Overall, imports contracted 3.7% SAAR in Q1 after increasing 2.0%
Quarter-on-quarter s.a. (left scale)
Year-on-year (right scale)
in Q4, while export growth picked up from Q4’s 1.8% to 3.7% on higher
merchandise shipments.
4 3

% %
Discounting these contributions, domestic demand appeared much softer
than the headline print would suggest. Excluding trade and inventories,
2 2 growth clocked in at just 1.4% in Q1, the lowest print since Q4 2015. Private
consumption growth notably fell from 2.5% in Q4 to just 1.2% in Q1. Meanwhile,
government consumption and investment rebounded from Q4’s 0.4%
0
Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018 Q2 2019
1
contraction, logging a 2.4% quarter-on-quarter increase thanks to higher state
and local government spending and despite a second sharp contraction of
Note: Quarter-on-quarter annualized changes and annual variation of seasonally
adjusted GDP in %. federal nondefense spending. However, the government shutdown in January
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and FocusEconomics Consensus
Forecast. had a negative impact, estimated by the BEA at around 0.3 percentage points
of GDP, on both public and private spending in the quarter, which should be
compensated by a rebound effect in Q2.

Fixed investment growth was weak in the quarter, slowing from 3.1% in Q4
to 1.5% in Q1. Residential investment contracted for the fifth consecutive
quarter—albeit at a softer pace than in Q4—as the housing market remained
feeble. Business investment also slowed as spending on equipment stalled
while investment in structures contracted for the third consecutive quarter. On
the flipside, investment in intellectual property products such as software and
patents continued to show strong growth.

Turning to the outlook, growth in Q2 seems poised to tick down, but consumer
spending dynamics appear to have regained some momentum at the end
of Q1—as indicated notably by strong retail sales in March. In the words of
Goldman Sachs analysts, “the pace of inventory accumulation and net exports
both appear unsustainably high, and we expect these components to weigh
on Q2 growth. At the same time, a boost from the end of the government
shutdown (worth 0.4-0.5 pp) and improving consumer spending momentum
argue for a pickup in domestic final sales growth”.

Lastly, as for the implications for monetary policy, the Q1 reading is likely
to comfort the Fed in its plans to stand pat this year, as both the headline
and core PCE price indexes—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauges—remained

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast |3

FOCUSECONOMICS United States May 2019

significantly below the Bank’s target, while softer consumption and investment
dynamics indicate a cautious stance remains warranted.

The Federal Reserve expects economic growth of 2.1% in 2019 and 1.9% in
2020. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand
2.4% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2020, the
panel expects the economy to expand 1.7%.

REAL SECTOR | ISM manufacturing index rebounds from two-year low

in March on solid employment gains
The U.S. manufacturing sector appeared to stabilize in March after seesawing
in the previous months. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM)
ISM Manufacturing Index
manufacturing index rose from a 27-month low of 54.2 in February to 55.3 in
65
March, exceeding expectations of a stable reading. Thus, the index remained
above the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction in the
60 sector, where it has been for 31 consecutive months.

55 The improvement in the index in March came primarily on the back of a solid
uptick in employment growth, which had softened in February, as well as a
50 smaller increase in both output and new order growth. The new export orders
index however fell in the month and was much weaker than the overall order
45
index, indicating that domestic demand continued to be the main driver of
Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19
activity in the manufacturing sector amid rapidly cooling external demand and
Note: Manufacturing ISM Report On Business (PMI). Readings above 50% global growth prospects. This was further confirmed by customers’ inventories
indicate an expansion in the manufacturing sector while readings below 50%
point to a contraction. which continued to deplete quite sharply, albeit at a slower pace than in
Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
February. Meanwhile, growth in companies’ order backlogs slowed to a near-
standstill.

Looking at supply side indicators, the March reading confirmed the rapid
waning of supply chain strain observed since the beginning of the year. Input
inventories grew at a more modest pace than in February, as firms prioritized
utilizing existing stocks over increasing their purchasing activity in a context of
cooling demand momentum. Consequently, imports growth also softened in
the month, while supplier delivery times lengthened at a more modest pace.
Lastly, after two months of mild price declines, input inflation significantly
rebounded. Overall, the reading suggests that the manufacturing sector is
adequately adjusting to a softer—yet still robust—momentum in the months
ahead after a patch of strong growth through most of 2018.

Commenting on this month’s release, researchers at Nomura noted:

“Altogether, today’s report surprised to the upside and, combined with the
improvement in manufacturing sentiment in China, suggests that we could
be close to reaching the trough in the recent manufacturing sector weakness.
However, over the near term, consistent with still-moderating new orders
indices, we think there is still likely some room for further softness, in particular
exports-related segment of the industry.”

FocusEconomics panelists expect that industrial production will expand 2.5%

in 2019, down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2020,
panelists see industrial production expanding 1.5%.

REAL SECTOR | Retail sales surge in March on higher automobile and

gas spending
Nominal retail sales soared 1.6% on a seasonally-adjusted month-on-month
basis in March, markedly contrasting February’s unrevised 0.2% contraction,

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast |4

FOCUSECONOMICS United States May 2019

and wildly beating market expectations of 0.8% growth. Retail sales excluding
automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services—also known as
Retail Sales | variation in % “core” retail sales as they most closely reflect private consumption in GDP—
3.0 7.5 also rose a solid 1.0% in March, following February’s revised 0.3% contraction
(previously reported: -0.2% month-on-month).
2.0 6.0

The March print was driven by a surge in automobile sales, which are
1.0 4.5
considered particularly volatile and performed relatively poorly in previous
% %

0.0 3.0
months, as well as a similarly large increase in gasoline purchases. This was
due in large part to much higher gas prices in the month—as reflected by the
-1.0 1.5 March CPI report—due to gains in crude oil markets and mid-March floods
Month-on-month s.a. (left scale)
Year-on-year (right scale)
in the Midwest, which disrupted gas supply and caused price spikes in some
-2.0
Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19
0.0
areas. Aside from these categories, sales of clothing and footwear rebounded
from February’s slump, furniture store sales posted healthy increases, and
Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year variation of nominal retail sales in %.
Source: United States Department of Commerce. non-store retailers—a category that includes e-commerce—continued to
register steady and robust sales growth.

In annual terms, growth in retail sales came in at 3.6% in March, up from

the 2.2% increase recorded in February. Lastly, annual average retail sales
growth fell to 4.4% in March February from 4.5% in February.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect private consumption

to grow 2.4% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s
forecast. For 2020, the panel sees private consumption increasing 2.0%.

REAL SECTOR | Solid payroll growth in March assuages fears of a

pronounced economic slowdown
The March jobs report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calmed
market fears of a steep deceleration in the economy, showing robust payroll
growth after disappointing data in February. Non-farm payrolls increased
196,000 in March, up from the upwardly-revised but still feeble 33,000
registered in February (previous estimate: +20,000) and beating market
Labor Market expectations of 170,000 job gains. March’s payroll growth thus came in right
400
Var. In non-farm payrolls (left scale)
5.2
around the 200,000 average monthly job gains recorded in the 102 months of
Unemployment rate (right scale) the current record-breaking labor market expansion.
300 4.8

Payroll gains in the services sector drove the upswing in March, again
200 4.4 underpinned by strong growth in healthcare, while professional and business
% services also posted healthy increases. The leisure and hospitality sector
100 4.0
rebounded from minor losses in February to average gains in March. On the
other hand, wholesale trade, retail trade and temporary help services all shed
jobs in the month, while payroll growth in transportation and warehousing
0 3.6
Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19
was only meager. A surprising point of the March report was the weakness
Note: Month-on-month variation of non-farm payrolls in thousands and in manufacturing, which shed jobs for the first time since 2017, contradicting
unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted in %.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
survey data—such as the ISM Manufacturing index—which suggested
healthy job growth in the month On the flipside, construction and mining both
rebounded from the payroll contractions registered in February, which were
likely in part due to adverse weather conditions.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate was stable at February’s 3.8% in March,

but the participation rate dropped from 63.2% to 63.0%. As Leslie Preston,
senior economist at TD Economics, noted, “The civilian labor force has shrunk
in each of the first three months of the year. The participation rate is still a
tick above its year ago level, but as baby boomers increasingly move into
retirement, there will continue to be downward pressure on the headline
participation rate”. Turning to earnings, the March data disappointed market

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast |5

FOCUSECONOMICS United States May 2019

analysts, with average hourly earnings growth at 0.1% month-on-month

(February: +0.4% mom; expectations: +0.2% mom) and decelerating to
3.2% year-on-year, from 3.4% in February and missing expectations of 3.4%.
Overall, the March report does confirm a modest cooling down of the labor
market—and thus the broader economy—in the first quarter, but is likely to
reassure investors fearing an imminent and marked slowdown.

Lastly, the short-term outlook looks set to continue on a slight downward

trend. According to James Knightley, chief international economist at ING,
“we expect payrolls growth to continue averaging 150-200,000 through the
summer given reasonable economic activity. […] Nonetheless, we think
there will be some lost momentum in hiring, but this is more due to a lack of
available labour to fill positions”. More pessimistic is Leslie Preston, noting
that “economic growth is slowing from its 3% pace over the course of 2018
to just over 2% this year. This process will mean more muted monthly payroll
gains, consistent with a mature phase of the economic cycle. We expect job
gains to slow below 150k per month through the remainder of 2019”.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the unemployment

rate to average 3.7% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s estimate, and
3.7% again in 2020.

Home Prices REAL SECTOR | Home price growth softens again in January
1.2 230
Home prices continued to slide in January, softening for the tenth month in
a row. On a month-on-month basis, the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite
home price index fell 0.2% in January, matching December’s print but
0.6 210 missing expectations of a flat reading. When adjusted for seasonal factors,
house prices grew 0.1% from the previous month, down from 0.2% increase
registered in December.
0.0 190

Mom variation in % (left scale) In annual terms, home price growth tumbled from 4.1% in December to just
Home price index (right scale)
3.6% in January, the lowest reading since September 2012. Las Vegas,
-0.6
Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19
170
Phoenix and Minneapolis registered the largest year-on-year price increases,
respectively, while momentum continued to fade in previously-hot markets
Note: S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 home price value index and month-on-
month non-seasonally adjusted variation. such as San Francisco, Los Angeles and Seattle. Overall, 16 out of the 20
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
cities in the index registered slower annual price growth in January.

Looking ahead, cooling domestic growth and ample supply in select areas
should keep price pressures relatively muted. On the other hand, the recent
policy shift from the Federal Reserve, which has now halted its schedule of
hikes and is likely to keep its policy rate unchanged throughout 2019, will help
maintain mortgage rates lower than previously expected, which will improve
affordability for homebuyers and thus support demand.

In light of this, David Blitzer, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices,
noted:

“Mortgage rates are as important as prices for many home buyers. Mortgage
rates climbed from 3.95% in January 2018 to a peak of 4.95% in November
2018. Since then, rates have dropped to 4.28% as of mid-March. Sales
of existing single-family homes slid gently downward from the 2017 fourth
quarter until January of this year before jumping higher in February 2019. […]
It remains to be seen if recent low mortgage rates and smaller price gains can
sustain improved home sales.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast |6

FOCUSECONOMICS United States May 2019

FocusEconomics panelists expect home prices to increase 3.7% in 2019,

which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2020,
panelists expect home prices to rise 3.8%.

OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence declines steeply in March as present

situation sentiment falls from near 20-year high
The Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence index fell from 131.4
in February to 124.1 in March, markedly underwhelming market expectations
of 133.0. Nevertheless, the index remained above the 100-point threshold that
Consumer Confidence separates consumer optimism from pessimism.
140

In contrast to movements of the index in past months, which were largely

130
driven by changes in consumers’ forward-looking expectations, the decline
observed in March came primarily on the back of a sharp deterioration in
120
consumer sentiment regarding the present situation—with the corresponding
110 index losing more than 12 points, while the expectations index declined more
modestly. However, this largely reflects a reversion to a more normal level—in
100 the context of slowing domestic growth—given that the present situation index
was at its highest level in nearly two decades as of February.
90
Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19

Looking at the details, consumers were markedly less upbeat about

Note: Consumer Confidence Index.
Source: The Conference Board. current business conditions as well as the labor market situation. The labor
differential—the difference between the percentage of respondents who state
that jobs are plentiful and those who say that jobs are hard to get—fell steeply
from 34.0 in February to 28.3 in March. As for future expectations, consumers
were also less optimistic about business conditions in the next six months as
well as the labor market outlook. On the other hand, respondents became
slightly more upbeat regarding their own income prospects.

Commenting on this month’s reading, Lynn Franco, senior director of economic

indicators at The Conference Board, noted:

“Confidence has been somewhat volatile over the past few months, as
consumers have had to weather volatility in the financial markets, a partial
government shutdown and a very weak February jobs report. Despite these
dynamics, consumers remain confident that the economy will continue
expanding in the near term. However, the overall trend in confidence has been
Inflation | Consumer Price Index softening since last summer, pointing to a moderation in economic growth”.
0.6 4.0

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation picks up in March on higher rent costs

and energy price rebound
0.3 2.0 Consumer prices increased 0.4% over the prior month in March, up from
February’s 0.2% print and exceeding market expectations of 0.3%. The
% %
print was primarily driven by a sharp upswing in energy prices—which had
0.0 0.0 mildly rebounded in February after several months of steep declines—as
the rebound in global oil markets since December finally started translating
Month-on-month (left scale)
Year-on-year (right scale) into higher prices at the pump, while disruptions due to floods in the Midwest
-0.3
Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19
-2.0
amplified the increase. On the other hand, core consumer prices—which
exclude volatile items such as food and energy—only rose a mild 0.1% in
Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of seasonally adjusted
consumer price index in %. March, matching February’s results. This was due to sharply lower apparel
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
costs weighing on the print, despite robust increases in the prices of shelter
and medical services.

Inflation rebounded to 1.9% in March from February’s over two-year low of

1.5%. Meanwhile, core inflation—a closely watched indicator for forecasting
future monetary policy moves—edged down to 2.0% in March from 2.1% in

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast |7

FOCUSECONOMICS United States May 2019

February. However, this was likely due in part to methodological changes, as

the BLS started incorporating department-store-provided data in the March
release. According to economists at Nomura, “in our view, this methodological
change amplified the decline in apparel prices during the month. Without
apparel prices, core inflation held steady and the underlying inflation trend
remained essentially unchanged”.

Turning to the outlook, the rebound in energy prices that began in February
should continue in the months ahead, helping push headline inflation higher,
but core inflation pressures should remain steady, as reflected by stabilizing
wage growth in the March jobs report. This should comfort the Fed in its
current data-dependent stance and solidify expectations of stable interest
rates throughout this year. As Nomura researchers point out, “given that the
Fed [at its March policy meeting] appears to have recently changed their
reaction function to inflation and voiced greater concern over disinflation as
opposed to higher inflation, we think that incoming information on inflation
have raised the hurdle further for resuming rate hikes and likely intensified
their concerns over persistent inflation shortfalls”.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect inflation to average

1.9% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2020, the panel
expects inflation to average 2.1%.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast |8

FOCUSECONOMICS United States May 2019

Economic Indicators | 2014 - 2023

Annual Data 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Real Sector
Population (million) 319 321 323 325 327 330 332 334 336 339
GDP per capita (USD) 54,993 56,770 57,877 59,895 62,606 64,823 66,852 68,936 71,102 73,353
GDP (USD bn) 17,522 18,219 18,707 19,485 20,494 21,363 22,182 23,030 23,916 24,842
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 4.4 4.0 2.7 4.2 5.2 4.2 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 2.5 2.9 1.6 2.2 2.9 2.4 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 2.6 3.6 1.8 2.5 3.0 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.9 3.7 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -0.9 1.9 1.4 -0.1 1.5 1.7 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.6
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 6.3 3.4 1.7 4.8 5.2 3.3 2.2 2.6 2.8 3.0
Non-Residential Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 6.9 1.8 0.5 5.3 6.9 3.9 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.2
Residential Investment (ann. var. %) 3.9 10.1 6.5 3.3 -0.3 - - - - -
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 4.3 0.6 -0.1 3.0 4.0 2.2 2.5 3.1 3.4 3.7
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 5.1 5.5 1.9 4.6 4.5 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.8
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 3.1 -1.0 -2.0 2.3 3.9 2.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 4.3 2.6 3.1 4.3 4.9 - - - - -
Light Vehicle Sales (million) 16.5 17.4 17.5 17.1 17.2 16.8 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.2
Housing Starts (million) 1.00 1.11 1.17 1.20 1.25 1.27 1.29 1.38 1.47 1.56
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices (ann. var. %) 7.9 5.0 5.2 5.9 5.8 3.7 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.5
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 6.2 5.3 4.9 4.4 3.9 3.7 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.4
Fiscal Balance (Federal, % of GDP) -2.8 -2.4 -3.1 -3.4 -3.8 -4.6 -4.8 -5.0 -5.1 -5.2
Public Debt (% of GDP) 104 104 107 105 107 107 109 110 111 112
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 6.2 5.8 6.8 5.7 3.8 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 0.7 0.7 2.1 2.1 1.9 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 1.6 0.1 1.3 2.1 2.4 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, aop) 1.8 1.8 2.2 1.8 2.1 - - - - -
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 1.6 -0.9 0.4 2.3 2.9 - - - - -
Federal Funds Target Rate (%, eop) 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.50 2.50 2.51 2.38 2.40 2.51 2.62
3-Month LIBOR rate (%, eop) 0.26 0.61 1.00 1.69 2.81 2.65 2.54 2.59 2.68 2.77
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 2.17 2.27 2.45 2.41 2.69 2.66 2.60 2.74 2.95 3.17
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.20 1.14 1.16 1.20 1.23 1.25 1.27
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.33 1.11 1.11 1.13 1.18 1.14 1.19 1.22 1.24 1.26
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.1 -2.2 -2.3 -2.3 -2.4 -2.6 -2.6 -2.8 -2.8 -2.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -365 -408 -433 -449 -488 -553 -586 -637 -681 -729
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -750 -762 -751 -808 -891 - - - - -
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 202 466 457 275 - - - - - -
Quarterly Data Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.0 3.0 3.2 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq saar %) 3.4 2.2 3.2 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.7
Private Consumption (saar %) 3.5 2.5 1.2 2.7 2.3 2.2 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.0
Government Consumption (saar %) 2.6 -0.4 2.4 2.9 1.9 1.5 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.9
Fixed Investment (saar %) 1.1 3.1 1.5 2.7 3.0 2.4 1.3 2.4 2.6 2.6
Non-Residential Fixed Investment (saar %) 2.5 5.4 2.7 3.3 3.2 3.2 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.8
Exports (G&S, saar %) -4.9 1.8 3.7 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 3.2 3.2
Imports (G&S, saar %) 9.3 2.0 -3.7 3.0 3.5 3.6 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.7
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.6 2.2 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0
Federal Funds Target Rate (%, eop) 2.25 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.51 2.53 2.52 2.50 2.38
3-Month LIBOR rate (%, eop) 2.40 2.81 2.60 2.62 2.64 2.65 2.65 2.65 2.60 2.54
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 3.06 2.69 2.41 2.61 2.65 2.66 2.65 2.65 2.62 2.60
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.16 1.14 1.12 1.13 1.15 1.16 1.19 1.19 1.20 1.20
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.5 -2.6 -2.5 -2.6 -2.6 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -127 -134 -134 -138 -141 -144 -147 -150 -152 -151
Monthly Data Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19
Industrial Production (mom s.a. var. %) 0.4 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.0 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 -
Retail Sales (mom s.a. var. %) 0.6 -0.1 -0.2 1.0 0.0 -1.6 0.8 -0.2 1.6 -
Unemployment (% of active population) 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.9 4.0 3.8 3.8 -
Conference Board Consumer Confidence 127.9 134.7 135.3 137.9 136.4 126.6 121.7 131.4 124.1 -
ISM Manufacturing Index (50-pt threshold) 58.4 60.8 59.5 57.5 58.8 54.3 56.6 54.2 55.3 -
Markit Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 55.3 54.7 55.6 55.7 55.3 53.8 54.9 53.0 52.4 52.4
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices (ann. var. %) 5.9 5.5 5.2 5.0 4.6 4.1 3.6 - - -
Housing Starts (millions of units, saar) 1.18 1.28 1.24 1.21 1.21 1.14 1.30 1.14 1.14 -
Existing Home Sales (millions of units, saar) 5.39 5.35 5.18 5.22 5.21 5.00 4.93 5.48 5.21 -
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %) 2.9 2.7 2.3 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.9 -
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.17 1.16 1.16 1.13 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.14 1.12 -
Trade Balance (G&S, USD bn) -51.4 -54.9 -55.7 -56.5 -50.5 -59.9 -51.1 -49.4 - -

Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast |9

FOCUSECONOMICS United States May 2019

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2023 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 16-Q4 20 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %

6 5 Individual Forecasts 2019 2020

United States ANZ 2.1 2.0
G7
AXA IM 2.3 1.6
4 4
BBVA Research 2.5 2.0
Berenberg 2.4 2.3
2 3 BMO Capital Markets 2.3 1.7
BNP Paribas 2.3 1.8
CIBC World Markets 2.2 1.5
0 2
Citigroup Global Mkts 2.7 2.0
Commerzbank 2.5 1.8
-2 1 Credit Agricole 2.4 1.7
United States
G7
Credit Suisse 2.3 2.2
World Danske Bank 2.4 1.9
-4 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 DBS Bank 2.5 1.5
DekaBank 2.3 2.0
Desjardins Group 2.5 2.2
3 | GDP 2019 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts DuckerFrontier 2.1 1.9
DZ Bank 2.1 1.6
4 3 Maximum
Consensus EIU 2.3 1.5
Minimum Euromonitor Int. 2.4 1.7
Fitch Solutions 2.5 1.9
3
Goldman Sachs 2.7 2.3
2
Handelsbanken 2.1 1.3
HSBC 2.4 1.8
2
ING 2.4 1.8
Intesa Sanpaolo 2.4 1.9
1
JPMorgan 2.6 1.8
1
Julius Baer 2.5 0.8
Maximum
Consensus Kiel Institute 2.1 1.8
Minimum Macroeconomic Advisers 2.3 2.1
0 0
Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar
Macroeconomic Policy Institute 2.6 2.3
Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar
Moody's Analytics 2.3 1.6
National Bank of Canada 2.3 1.9
5 | GDP 2019 | Panelist Distribution Nomura 2.6 1.7
NORD/LB 2.5 1.7
60%
Nordea 2.4 1.2
Oxford Economics 2.3 1.8
Pezco Economics 2.0 1.5
Raiffeisen Research 2.3 0.5
40%
RBC Capital Markets 2.4 1.9
S&P Global 2.2 1.7
Scope Ratings 2.0 1.5
Scotiabank 2.4 1.9
20% SEB 2.4 1.7
Société Générale 2.3 0.4
Standard Chartered 2.3 1.8
Swedbank 2.1 1.7
0% TD Economics 2.5 1.9
<1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 >3.1
UBS 2.4 2.0
Unicredit 2.2 0.7
Others (8)* 2.4 1.8
Summary
Minimum 2.0 0.4
Maximum 2.7 2.3
Median 2.3 1.8
Consensus 2.4 1.7
History
Notes and sources
30 days ago 2.4 1.7
* Others refers to the Consensus Forecast additional panelists who are not shown in the 60 days ago 2.4 1.7
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast United States report due to space constraints. A full panelist 90 days ago 2.4 1.7
breakdown is available in the report’s accompanying Excel file. Additional Forecasts
Federal Reserve (Mar. 2019) 2.1 1.9
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from
the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus
IMF (Apr. 2019) 2.3 1.9
Forecast. OECD (Nov. 2018) 2.7 2.1
1 GDP, annual variation in %.
2 Quarterly GDP (seasonally adjusted), quarter-on-quarter annualized variation in %.
3 GDP, evolution of 2019 forecasts during the last 18 months.
4 GDP, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2019 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 10

FOCUSECONOMICS United States May 2019

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Consumption and Investment 6 | Consumption | variation in %

Consumption Investment
6
variation in % variation in % United States
Individual Forecasts 2019 2020 2019 2020 G7
BBVA Research 2.8 2.1 - -
4
Berenberg 2.3 2.1 4.3 4.7
BMO Capital Markets 2.2 1.9 3.3 2.0
CIBC World Markets 2.4 1.9 3.0 2.9
Coface 2.4 - 5.2 - 2

Commerzbank 2.7 2.1 - -

Danske Bank 2.4 2.1 - -
DekaBank 2.3 2.0 - - 0
Desjardins Group 2.3 2.3 3.7 3.4
DuckerFrontier 2.1 1.7 - -
DZ Bank 2.3 1.8 - - -2
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
EIU 2.3 1.7 - -
Euromonitor Int. 2.5 2.0 - -
Fitch Ratings 2.5 2.2 - -
Fitch Solutions 2.2 2.1 - - 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
Goldman Sachs 2.6 2.7 4.2 4.0
2.7
HSBC 2.5 2.2 3.0 2.9
Intesa Sanpaolo 2.3 2.2 4.1 2.9 2019 2020

JPMorgan 2.3 2.0 - - 2.5

Kiel Institute 2.5 1.9 - -
Macroeconomic Advisers 2.2 2.6 3.8 3.4 2.3
Macroeconomic Policy Institute 2.8 2.7 4.7 3.6
Moody's Analytics 2.1 1.3 5.8 3.3
2.1
National Bank of Canada 2.4 1.9 2.9 1.5
Nomura 2.4 2.2 3.3 2.2
NORD/LB 2.2 1.8 - - 1.9
Oxford Economics 2.2 2.0 - -
Pezco Economics 1.8 1.8 - -
1.7
RBC Capital Markets 2.2 1.9 3.7 2.1 Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar
Scotiabank 2.4 2.1 3.6 2.4
Société Générale 2.4 1.3 4.7 -0.6
TD Economics 2.4 2.2 3.3 3.3
UBS 2.2 1.9 - - 8 | Investment | variation in %
Summary
10
Minimum 1.8 1.3 2.9 -0.6
Maximum 2.8 2.7 5.8 4.7
Median 2.3 2.0 3.7 2.9
Consensus 2.4 2.0 3.9 2.7
History 0
30 days ago 2.5 2.0 4.0 2.6
60 days ago 2.5 2.0 3.7 2.6
90 days ago 2.6 1.9 3.8 2.6
-10

United States
G7
-20
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

4.4

3.6

2.8
Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Bureau of
2019 2020
Economic Analysis (BEA). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
6 Private consumption, annual variation in %. 2.0
7 Private consumption, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months. Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar
8 Non-residential fixed investment, annual variation in %.
9 Non-residential fixed investment, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 11

FOCUSECONOMICS United States May 2019

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Exports and Imports 10 | Exports | variation in %

Exports Imports 20
variation in % variation in % United States
G7
Individual Forecasts 2019 2020 2019 2020
BBVA Research 2.8 4.5 4.9 4.9 10
BMO Capital Markets 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.5
CIBC World Markets 2.3 2.3 2.9 2.5
Coface 3.0 - 5.0 -
0
Commerzbank 2.7 2.7 3.8 2.5
Danske Bank 2.1 2.4 3.5 2.6
DekaBank 3.3 3.2 2.9 2.9
-10
Desjardins Group 1.4 1.7 2.3 2.6
DuckerFrontier 1.6 1.9 3.0 2.8
DZ Bank 1.6 1.7 2.9 2.7
EIU 2.5 1.4 2.9 1.0 -20
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Fitch Solutions 3.1 2.8 3.1 2.8
Goldman Sachs 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.3
HSBC 2.4 2.8 3.3 3.3
Intesa Sanpaolo 2.3 2.5 3.1 3.0 11 | Exports | evolution of fcst
JPMorgan 2.1 1.8 1.6 3.7
3.6
Kiel Institute 2.0 2.8 3.6 3.0
Macroeconomic Advisers 2.8 5.4 3.8 5.7
Macroeconomic Policy Institute 2.0 3.3 4.5 5.0
Moody's Analytics 1.7 5.7 4.3 5.2 3.2

National Bank of Canada 2.2 1.1 1.2 1.1

Nomura 0.8 0.8 1.1 2.5
NORD/LB 1.5 -0.5 0.5 -0.5 2.8

Oxford Economics 2.2 2.7 2.8 3.0

Pezco Economics 3.8 2.9 2.1 1.6
RBC Capital Markets 2.3 2.7 1.6 2.2 2.4

Scotiabank 1.9 2.0 3.2 2.8

2019 2020
Société Générale 2.3 1.9 3.5 2.5
TD Economics 2.1 5.0 2.5 5.0 2.0
Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar
UBS 2.2 2.4 2.6 3.4
Summary
Minimum 0.8 -0.5 0.5 -0.5
Maximum 3.8 5.7 5.0 5.7 12 | Imports | variation in %
Median 2.2 2.4 2.9 2.8
20
Consensus 2.2 2.5 2.9 2.9 United States
History G7
30 days ago 2.1 2.5 3.3 2.9
10
60 days ago 2.3 2.6 3.5 3.1
90 days ago 2.4 2.6 3.8 3.0

-10

-20
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

13 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

4.4

4.0

3.6

Notes and sources 3.2

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Bureau of 2019 2020
Economic Analysis (BEA). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
10 Real exports of goods and services, annual variation in %. 2.8
11 Exports, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months. Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar
12 Real imports of goods and services, annual variation in %.
13 Imports, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 12

FOCUSECONOMICS United States May 2019

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Industry and Unemployment 14 | Industry | variation in %

Industry Unemployment 10
variation in % % of active pop. United States
G7
Individual Forecasts 2019 2020 2019 2020
BBVA Research - - 3.7 3.9 5

Berenberg 2.1 2.1 3.7 3.6

BMO Capital Markets 2.7 1.9 3.7 3.6 0
CIBC World Markets - - 3.8 4.1
Citigroup Global Mkts - - 3.6 3.4
Commerzbank - - 3.8 3.6 -5

Credit Agricole - - 3.7 3.8

Credit Suisse - - 3.7 - -10
Danske Bank - - 3.6 3.5
DekaBank - - 3.5 3.6
Desjardins Group - - 3.7 3.6 -15
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
DIW Berlin - - 3.7 3.5
DuckerFrontier 2.4 1.4 3.9 4.3
DZ Bank - - 3.8 3.7
EIU 2.8 0.2 4.0 4.6 15 | Industry | evol. of forecasts
Euromonitor Int. 3.2 1.2 3.8 4.0
Fitch Ratings - - 3.6 3.6 3.0

Fitch Solutions - - 3.9 4.2 2019 2020

Goldman Sachs 1.9 1.5 3.7 3.3
Handelsbanken - - 3.8 4.1
HSBC 2.5 2.2 3.7 3.6 2.5

Intesa Sanpaolo 2.8 1.9 3.7 3.5

JPMorgan - - 3.7 3.3
Kiel Institute - - 3.8 3.8
Macroeconomic Advisers 2.1 1.1 3.6 3.6 2.0

Macroeconomic Policy Institute - - 3.5 3.5

Moody's Analytics 2.5 1.1 3.7 3.6
National Bank of Canada - - 3.7 3.5
Nomura - - 3.7 3.5 1.5
Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar
NORD/LB - - 3.7 3.9
Oxford Economics 2.7 1.6 3.7 3.5
Pezco Economics 2.8 2.1 4.0 4.3
Raiffeisen Research - - 3.5 4.0 16 | Unemployment | % of active pop.
RBC Capital Markets - - 3.8 3.6
11
S&P Global - - 3.6 3.6
United States
Scope Ratings - - 3.8 3.7
G7
Scotiabank 2.8 1.8 3.9 4.0
9
SEB - - 3.5 3.7
Société Générale - - 3.6 4.0
TD Economics - - 3.7 3.7
UBS 2.3 1.5 3.7 3.6 7
Summary
Minimum 1.9 0.2 3.5 3.3
Maximum 3.2 2.2 4.0 4.6 5
Median 2.6 1.6 3.7 3.6
Consensus 2.5 1.5 3.7 3.7
History 3
30 days ago 2.7 1.6 3.7 3.7 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

60 days ago 2.7 1.6 3.7 3.7

90 days ago 2.7 1.6 3.6 3.7
17 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts

4.5

2019 2020

4.3

4.1

3.9
Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Bureau of 3.7
Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). See below for details. Forecasts based on
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
14 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: BEA. 3.5
Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar
15 Industrial production, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
16 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: BLS.
17 Unemployment, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 13

FOCUSECONOMICS United States May 2019

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Fiscal Balance and Public Debt 18 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

Fiscal Balance Public Debt 5
% of GDP % of GDP United States
Individual Forecasts 2019 2020 2019 2020 G7
BBVA Research -4.2 -4.2 - -
Berenberg -4.5 -4.5 110 111 0
BMO Capital Markets -4.2 -4.1 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts -4.8 -4.7 108 110
Coface - - 108 -
Credit Agricole -4.7 -5.1 - -
-5
Credit Suisse -4.2 -4.3 - -
Danske Bank -4.6 -4.6 107 108
Desjardins Group -4.4 -4.6 - -
DZ Bank -5.2 -5.4 108 109
EIU -4.9 -5.7 - - -10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Emirates NBD -4.7 - - -
Fitch Solutions -5.1 -5.3 - -
Goldman Sachs -4.5 -4.7 - -
HSBC -4.6 -4.8 - - 19 | Fiscal Balance | evol. of forecasts
ING -4.7 -5.0 - -
-3.5
JPMorgan -4.2 -4.5 - -
Kiel Institute -4.0 -4.1 - -
2019 2020
Macroeconomic Policy Institute - - 105 105
Moody's Analytics -4.7 -5.5 105 108 -4.0

National Bank of Canada -4.2 -4.1 - -

Nomura -4.2 -4.8 - -
Nordea -5.0 -4.8 - - -4.5

Raiffeisen Research -5.2 -5.6 107 108

Scope Ratings -4.6 -4.4 - -
Scotiabank -5.1 -5.0 - - -5.0

Société Générale -5.0 -5.1 - -

UBS -4.6 -4.6 - -
Unicredit - - 108 111 -5.5
Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar
Summary
Minimum -5.2 -5.7 105 105
Maximum -4.0 -4.1 110 111
Median -4.6 -4.7 108 109 20 | Public Debt | % of GDP
Consensus -4.6 -4.8 107 109
125
History
30 days ago -4.7 -4.9 107 109
60 days ago -4.7 -4.9 107 108
90 days ago -4.9 -5.1 107 108
100

75

United States
G7
50
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

21 | Public Debt | evol. of forecasts

110

108

106
Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Bureau of 2019 2020
Economic Analysis (BEA). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
18 Federal government balance as % of GDP. 104
Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar
19 Federal government balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
20 Public debt as % of GDP.
21 Public debt as % of GDP, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 14

FOCUSECONOMICS United States May 2019

Monetary Sector | Inflation

22 | Inflation | 2000 - 2023 | in % 23 | Inflation | Q1 16-Q4 20 | in % Inflation | annual variation of consumer price index in %
4 3 Individual Forecasts 2019 2020
ANZ 1.8 2.1
AXA IM 2.2 2.7
3
BBVA Research 1.8 2.0
2 Berenberg 1.9 2.2
2 BMO Capital Markets 2.0 2.2
BNP Paribas 1.7 2.0
CIBC World Markets 2.2 2.4
1
1 Coface 2.4 -
Commerzbank 2.0 2.5
0 Credit Agricole 1.7 1.9
United States
United States Credit Suisse 1.5 2.0
G7
G7 Danske Bank 1.8 2.4
-1 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 DBS Bank 1.5 1.5
DekaBank 1.9 2.4
Desjardins Group 2.0 2.2
24 | Inflation 2019 | evol. of forecasts 25 | Inflation 2020 | evol. of forecasts DIW Berlin 2.0 2.0
3.5 3.5 DuckerFrontier 2.1 2.2
DZ Bank 1.9 2.3
EIU 2.2 1.4
Emirates NBD 2.3 -
2.5 2.5 Euromonitor Int. 1.7 2.0
Fitch Solutions 2.3 2.3
Goldman Sachs 2.0 2.2
HSBC 1.8 2.0
1.5 1.5 Ifo Institut 2.0 2.2
ING 2.0 2.1
Maximum Maximum Intesa Sanpaolo 1.8 1.9
Consensus
Consensus
JPMorgan 1.9 2.4
Minimum Minimum
0.5 0.5 Julius Baer 1.7 2.0
Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar KBC 2.1 2.2
Kiel Institute 1.7 2.2
Macroeconomic Advisers 2.1 2.0
26 | Inflation 2019 | Panelist Distribution Moody's Analytics 1.8 2.2
National Bank of Canada 1.8 2.1
50% Nomura 2.1 2.3
NORD/LB 2.0 2.3
Nordea 1.3 2.3
40%
Oxford Economics 1.6 1.9
Pezco Economics 1.7 1.5
30% Raiffeisen Research 2.2 2.3
RBC Capital Markets 1.8 2.1
S&P Global 1.7 2.2
20%
S-Bank 2.2 2.1
Scotiabank 1.7 2.2
10% SEB 1.4 2.2
Société Générale 1.5 1.9
TD Economics 2.0 2.1
0%
<1.0 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.1 >3.1
UBS 1.8 2.1
Unicredit 1.9 1.7
Summary
Minimum 1.3 1.4
Maximum 2.4 2.7
Median 1.9 2.2
Consensus 1.9 2.1
History
30 days ago 1.9 2.1
60 days ago 2.0 2.2
90 days ago 2.0 2.2
Additional Forecasts
Notes and sources IMF (Apr. 2019) 2.0 2.7
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are
from the Bureau of Labor Statisics (BLS). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus
Forecast.
22 Inflation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %.
23 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average consumer price index (CPI) in %.
24 Inflation, evolution of 2019 forecasts during the last 18 months.
25 Inflation, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
26 Inflation, panelist distribution of 2019 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval
in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 15

FOCUSECONOMICS United States May 2019

Monetary Sector | Interest Rates

Policy Rate, Benchmark Rate and 10-Year Bond Yield
27 | Policy Rate | in %
Fed Funds 3-Month USD 10-Year Bond
8 Target Rate in % LIBOR in % Yield in %
United States Individual Forecasts 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020
G7 ANZ 2.50 2.50 2.65 2.65 3.00 3.00
6 BBVA Research 2.75 2.75 - - 2.84 3.06
Berenberg 2.50 2.50 - - 3.00 3.10
BMO Capital Markets 2.50 2.50 2.59 2.59 2.63 2.38
4
BNP Paribas 2.50 2.50 2.60 2.50 2.70 2.50
CIBC World Markets 2.50 2.25 2.54 2.29 2.90 2.60
Citigroup Global Mkts 2.50 - 2.70 - 2.85 -
Commerzbank 2.50 - 2.75 - 2.50 -
2
Credit Agricole 2.50 2.50 2.63 2.63 2.80 2.60
Credit Suisse 2.50 - - - - -
Danske Bank 2.50 - 2.60 - 2.60 -
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
DBS Bank 2.50 2.50 2.70 2.70 2.65 2.70
DekaBank 2.50 2.75 2.63 2.77 2.73 2.83
Desjardins Group 2.50 3.00 - - 2.85 3.15
EIU - - - - 2.60 2.20
28 | Policy Rate | evol. of forecasts
Emirates NBD 2.50 - 2.60 - 2.55 -
3.25
Goldman Sachs 2.50 2.75 2.70 3.05 2.80 3.00
Handelsbanken 2.50 1.75 2.68 1.93 2.30 2.00
HSBC 2.50 2.00 - - 2.10 -
ING 2.50 2.50 2.60 2.40 2.45 2.20
3.00
Intesa Sanpaolo 2.50 2.25 2.55 2.38 2.36 2.19
JPMorgan 2.50 2.75 - - 3.00 -
Julius Baer 2.50 1.75 - - 3.15 2.55
2.75
KBC 2.50 - - - 2.50 -
Kiel Institute 2.50 2.50 - - - -
Macroeconomic Policy Institute - - 2.95 3.21 2.60 2.80
2.50 Moody's Analytics 2.50 2.75 2.83 2.93 2.92 3.08
2019 2020 National Bank of Canada 2.50 2.75 2.43 2.86 2.71 3.01
Nomura 2.50 2.50 - - 2.50 2.50
2.25 NORD/LB 2.50 - 2.75 - 2.80 -
Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar
Nordea - - - - 2.90 2.90
Oxford Economics 2.50 2.50 2.63 2.63 2.67 2.78
Pezco Economics 2.50 1.50 - - 2.42 1.51
29 | 10-Year Bond Yield | in %
Raiffeisen Research 2.50 1.50 2.60 1.50 2.30 1.30
6 RBC Capital Markets 2.50 2.50 - - 2.75 3.15
United States
Scope Ratings 2.50 2.25 - - - -
G7
Scotiabank 2.50 2.75 - - 2.85 2.95
SEB 2.50 - 2.67 - 2.25 -
4 Société Générale 2.50 1.75 - - 2.80 -
Standard Chartered 2.50 - 2.65 - 2.35 -
Swedbank 2.50 2.50 - - 2.30 2.45
TD Economics 2.50 2.50 2.70 2.70 2.85 2.85
UBS 2.50 2.50 2.61 2.74 2.80 2.70
2
Unicredit 2.50 1.75 2.50 1.75 2.40 2.10
Summary
Minimum 2.50 1.50 2.43 1.50 2.10 1.30
Maximum 2.75 3.00 2.95 3.21 3.15 3.15
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Median 2.50 2.50 2.63 2.63 2.70 2.70
Consensus 2.51 2.38 2.65 2.54 2.66 2.60
History
30 days ago 2.63 2.53 2.88 2.78 2.88 2.70
30 | 10-Year Bond Yield | evol. of fcst
60 days ago 2.85 2.68 3.03 2.91 2.98 2.80
3.4 90 days ago 2.96 2.73 3.11 2.98 3.09 2.84

3.2

3.0

2.8

2.6
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. All monetary data are from the Federal Reserve Board
2019 2020
(Fed). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
2.4 27 Federal funds target rate in %.
Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar 28 Federal funds target rate in %, evol. of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
29 10-year benchmark bond yield (eop).
30 10-year benchmark bond yield, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 16

FOCUSECONOMICS United States May 2019

External Sector | Current Account Balance

31 | Current Account | % of GDP 32 | Curr Account | Q1 16-Q4 20 | % of GDP Current Account Balance | % of GDP
2 -2.1 Individual Forecasts 2019 2020
United States BBVA Research -2.8 -2.9
G7 Berenberg -2.4 -2.3
0 -2.3 BMO Capital Markets -2.5 -2.6
CIBC World Markets -2.3 -2.3
Citigroup Global Mkts -3.0 -3.5
-2 -2.5 Coface -2.7 -
Credit Agricole -2.7 -2.7
Credit Suisse -2.5 -2.4
-4 -2.7
DekaBank -2.5 -2.5
Desjardins Group -2.5 -2.6
DZ Bank -2.3 -2.2
EIU -2.5 -2.5
-6 -2.9
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Emirates NBD -2.5 -
Euromonitor Int. -2.3 -2.4
Fitch Solutions -2.8 -2.9
33 | Current Account 2019 | evol. of fcst 34 | Current Account 2020 | evol. of fcst Goldman Sachs -2.5 -2.6
-1.5 -1.5 HSBC -2.7 -2.9
Intesa Sanpaolo -2.6 -2.7
JPMorgan -2.8 -2.9
Kiel Institute -2.6 -2.7
-2.5 -2.5 Macroeconomic Policy Institute -2.9 -3.1
Moody's Analytics -2.7 -3.0
National Bank of Canada -2.6 -2.5
Nomura -2.4 -3.1
-3.5 -3.5
NORD/LB -2.6 -2.6
Nordea -2.9 -2.5
Maximum Maximum Oxford Economics -2.6 -2.7
Consensus
Consensus Raiffeisen Research -2.3 -2.0
Minimum
Minimum
-4.5
RBC Capital Markets -2.4 -2.4
-4.5
Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Scope Ratings -2.4 -2.6
Société Générale -2.5 -2.5
Standard Chartered -3.0 -2.8
35 | Current Account 2019 | Panelist Distribution UBS -2.7 -2.7
Unicredit -2.6 -2.2
80%
Summary
Minimum -3.0 -3.5
Maximum -2.3 -2.0
60% Median -2.6 -2.6
Consensus -2.6 -2.6
History
40% 30 days ago -2.6 -2.7
60 days ago -2.7 -2.7
90 days ago -2.7 -2.7
20%

0%
<-4.5 -4.0 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 >-1.0

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are
from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus
Forecast.
31 Current account balance as % of GDP.
32 4-quarter moving average of current account balance as % of GDP.
33 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2019 forecasts during the last 18 months.
34 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
35 Current account balance as % of GDP, panelist distribution of 2019 forecasts. Concentration
of panelists in forecast interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger
number of panelists.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 17

FOCUSECONOMICS United States May 2019

Fact Sheet

General Data United States in the Region

Official name: United States of America Population | %-share in G7 GDP | %-share in G7
Capital: Washington D.C. (5.2m)
Other cities: New York (18.8m)
Los Angeles (12.5m) Canada
Canada 4.4%
Area (km2): 9,826,675 Italy 4.8% Italy
7.9% 5.3%
Population (million, 2018 est.): 328 France
7.1%
France
Population density (per km2, 2018): 33.4 8.5% United United
Population growth rate (%, 2018 est.): 0.8 States
42.8%
Kingdom
7.3%
United
Life expectancy (years, 2018 est.): 80.1 Kingdom
United
States
8.7% Germany
Illiteracy rate (%, 2015): 1.0 10.3%
52.7%

Language: English Germany

10.8%
Measures: U.S. customary units Japan
Japan 12.8%
Time: GMT-5 to GMT-10 16.5%

Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2017)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 37.0 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 121 2007-09 2010-12 2013-15 2008-10 2011-13 2014-16
100 120
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 75.2
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 33.9 Agriculture 100 Net Exports
80

Energy (2016) 80

Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 84,262 Manufacturing Investment

60
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 97,524 60

Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 4,095

40 Government
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 3,902 40 Other Industry
Consumption
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 14,829 20
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 19,687 20 Private
Services
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 5,240 0 Consumption

Transportation (2015) 0 -20

Airports: 13,513
Railways (km): 293,564
Roadways (km): 6,586,610 Trade Structure
Waterways (km): 41,009 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Los Angeles, New York, Houston

Political Data Other Canada ​ Other

​ ​
8.6% Canada
14.7% 17.7% ​​ ​​
​
13.1%
Mexico ​ ​
President: Donald John Trump ​​​
​​ 12.6% Japan
​ ​ 5.7%
​
Last elections: 8 November 2016 ​ ​
​
Next elections: 3 November 2020 Mexico
16.6% Exports
Other
LatAm Imports
EU-27 5.0%​ ​
Central Bank Governor: Jerome Powell 18.1% ​​ EU-27
17.7%

Other ​ ​
LatAm China ​ ​
​ ​
9.5% ​ ​ 22.3% ​ ​
Other Asia Other Asia
​ ​ China ex-Japan ex-Japan
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings 8.5% 15.0% 15.1%

Agency Rating Outlook

Moody’s: Aaa Stable
S&P Global Ratings: AA+ Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: AAA Stable

Food ​ Food Other

Strengths Weaknesses ​ 10.4% Other
17.4%
Mineral ​ 5.9%
Fuels
6.6%
Mineral ​
Fuels ​ 10.3%
• Growing energy self sufficiency • High public debt ​9.0% ​
​
• Strong domestic market • Persistent current account deficit
• Diversified economy • High household debt Exports Imports
• Flexible job market

Manufact. Manufact.
Products Products
63.2% 77.2%

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 18

FOCUSECONOMICS Calendar
Economic Release Calendar
May 2019

Country Event
29 April Euro area April Economic Sentiment
30 April Canada February Monthly GDP
30 April Euro area Q1 2019 National Accounts (*)
30 April Euro area March Unemployment
30 April France April Consumer Prices (*)
30 April France Q1 2019 National Accounts (*)
30 April Germany April Consumer Confidence
30 April Italy April Consumer Prices (*)
30 April Italy Q1 2019 National Accounts (*)
30 April Switzerland April KOF Indicator
30 April United Kingdom April Nationwide House Price Index (**)
30 April United Kingdom April GfK NOP Consumer Confidence (**)
30 April United States Central Bank Meeting
30 April United States February S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
30 April United States April Consumer Confidence
1 May Canada April IHS Manufacturing PMI
1 May Euro area April Consumer Prices (*)
1 May Switzerland April Credit Suisse Manufacturing PMI
1 May United Kingdom April Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
1 May United States April ISM Manufacturing
2 May Italy April Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI
2 May Switzerland March Retail Sales
2 May United Kingdom Central Bank Meeting
3 May Switzerland Q2 2019 Consumer Confidence
3 May Switzerland April Consumer Prices
3 May United Kingdom April Markit/CIPS Services PMI
3 May United States April Unemployment
6 May France April Markit Composite PMI
8 May Canada April Housing Starts
8 May Germany March Industrial Production
9 May Japan April Consumer Confidence
10 May France March Industrial Production
10 May Germany March Merchandise Trade
10 May Italy March Industrial Production
10 May United Kingdom Q1 2019 National Accounts (*)
10 May United Kingdom March Industrial Production
10 May United States April Consumer Prices
14 May Canada April Teranet House Price Index (**)
14 May Euro area March Industrial Production
14 May Germany April Consumer Prices
14 May Japan Q1 2019 National Accounts (*)
14 May United Kingdom March Labor Market Statistics
15 May Canada April Consumer Prices
15 May Euro area Q1 2019 National Accounts

(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 19

FOCUSECONOMICS May 2019

Date Country Event

15 May France April Consumer Prices
15 May Germany Q1 2019 National Accounts (*)
15 May United States April Retail Sales
16 May Italy April Consumer Prices
17 May Euro area April Consumer Prices
22 May Japan March Merchandise Trade
22 May Japan March Machinery Orders
22 May United Kingdom April Consumer Prices
23 May Euro area May IHS Markit Composite PMI (*)
23 May France May Markit Composite PMI (*)
23 May France May Business Confidence
23 May Germany Q1 2019 National Accounts
23 May Germany May Markit Composite PMI (*)
23 May Germany May Business Confidence
23 May Japan May Nikkei Manufacturing PMI
24 May Germany May Consumer Confidence
24 May Japan April Consumer Prices

(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 20

FOCUSECONOMICS

Notes and Statements

Notes May 2019

PUBLICATION NOTE
Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by
FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual
figures due to different forecast panels.

The GDP-weighted averages for the world refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a
monthly basis, and include the following countries and regions, comprising more than 90% of total
global output:

G7 (Group of Seven, 7 countries): Canada, Japan, United Kingdom and United States; France,
Germany and Italy are also Euro area countries.
BRIC (4 countries): Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The term was coined by Goldman Sachs in
November 2001 and has since been widely adopted in investment and finance.
Euro area (19 countries): Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece,
Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and
Spain.
Nordic Economies (5 countries): Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Iceland. Finland is also a Euro
area member.
Additional Countries: Switzerland.

Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation
and exchange rates.

COPYRIGHT NOTE
© Copyright 2019 FocusEconomics S.L.U. Duplication, reproduction, transmission, publication or
redistribution in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise without prior written
consent of FocusEconomics S.L.U. is strictly prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights
reserved under International Copyright Conventions.

The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast – Major Economies is a monthly publication of

FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed
as follows:

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DISCLOSURE STATEMENT
The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast – Major Economies (“Forecast”) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be
reliable. FocusEconomics and the participating panelists (“Information Providers”) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the
Forecast is accurate, complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from
the Forecast. The Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the
use of this information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the
exercise of their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific
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FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 21

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ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR KEY INDICATORS IN 131 COUNTRIES IN 12 REGIONS

MAJOR ECONOMIES & SWITZERLAND G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Germany &
Italy), Switzerland and overview of the BRIC countries
EURO AREA Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania,
Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain
NORDIC ECONOMIES Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden
CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania,
Slovakia and Slovenia
CIS COUNTRIES Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan,
Ukraine and Uzbekistan
SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Kosovo, Montenegro, North
Macedonia, Romania, Serbia and Turkey
EAST & SOUTH ASIA Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Korea, Mongolia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Australia and New
Zealand
ASEAN ECONOMIES Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam,
Australia and New Zealand
LATIN AMERICA Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela
CENTRAL AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras,
Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad and Tobago
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman,
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique,
Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe
REAL SECTOR GDP per capita, Economic Growth, Consumption, Investment, Industrial Production, Unemployment Rate,
Fiscal Balance and Public Debt
MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR Money, Inflation Rate, Policy Interest Rate and Exchange Rate
EXTERNAL SECTOR Current Account, Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, International Reserves and External Debt

PRICE FORECASTS FOR 34 COMMODITIES IN 4 MAIN GROUPS

ENERGY Brent Crude Oil, WTI Crude Oil, Coking Coal, Gasoil (European market), Gasoline (U.S. benchmark), Natural Gas,
Thermal Coal and Uranium
BASE METALS Alumina, Aluminium, Cobalt, Copper, Iron Ore, Lead, Molybdenum, Nickel, Steel (European and U.S.
markets), Tin and Zinc
PRECIOUS METALS Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum
AGRICULTURAL Cocoa, Coffee, Corn, Cotton, Palm Oil, Rice, Soybeans, Sugar, Wheat and Wool

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