CONSENSUS FORECAST

United States • October 2019

UNITED STATES 2
CALENDAR 19
NOTES 21

Contributors
RICARD TORNE
PUBLICATION DATE 23 September 2019 MAJOR ECONOMIES LEAD ECONOMIST
FORECASTS COLLECTED 17 - 19 September 2019
INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 19 September 2019 ARNE POHLMAN THOMAS FENGE
NEXT EDITION 22 October 2019 Chief Economist Head of Data
Solutions

ANGELA BOUZANIS WILLIAM O’CONNELL JOSÉ DANIEL MARÍN

Lead Economist Editor Data Scientist

NICOLAS J. AGUILAR EDWARD GARDNER JOAN ARGILAGÓS

Economist Economist Junior Data Analyst
NIHAD AHMED LINDSEY ICE LAURA AZLOR
Economist Economist Junior Data Analyst
MASSIMO BASSETTI JAN LAMMERSEN STÉPHANIE HOBEICHE
Economist Economist Junior Data Analyst
STEVEN BURKE OLIVER REYNOLDS RICCARDO SACCHI
Economist Economist Junior Data Analyst
JAVIER COLATO ALMANAS STANAPEDIS SARA VALVERDE
Economist Economist Junior Data Analyst
OLGA COSCODAN
Economist
FOCUSECONOMICS United States October 2019

United States
Outlook moderates
United States

• The economy appears to have continued to diverge down two separate

tracks in the third quarter. On the one hand, strong retail sales in August
and higher monthly wages in the same month affirms consumer spending
continues to do the heavy lifting in Q3. On the other hand, businesses
investment has likely weakened amid the persistent trade dispute with
China, while the ISM index notably slipped into contractionary territory for
the first time in three years in August, raising concerns of a manufacturing
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages downturn. Moreover, slower job creation in August suggests the labor
2015-17 2018-20 2021-23 market could be hitting its peak. On the trade front, while negotiations
Population (million): 323 330 336 between the U.S. and China have resumed and President Trump recently
GDP (USD bn): 18,820 21,408 23,977
GDP per capita (USD): 58,229 64,946 71,272
lifted tariffs on 400 Chinese goods, the countries are likely to remain
GDP growth (%): 2.3 2.3 1.8 starkly divided over the more contentious terms of trade, and many of our
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -3.2 -4.3 -4.8
panelists remain pessimistic about a near-term breakthrough.
Public Debt (% of GDP): 105 108 111
Inflation (%): 1.2 2.1 2.1
Current Account (% of GDP): -2.3 -2.5 -2.6 • Economic growth is forecast to cool further in H2. An uncertain global
Lindsey Ice environment and the back-and-forth with China will continue to hinder
Economist investment in the short-term, drag on manufacturing and exports and
could creep into consumer sentiment. Lower borrowing costs and higher
fiscal spending following the increase in the debt ceiling should help
counter the slowdown. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding
2.3% in 2019 and 1.6% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts from last month’s forecast.
4 2.8

2019 2020
• Inflation ticked down to 1.7% in August from 1.8% in July. Inflationary
2.5
3 pressures are expected to pick up slightly in the quarters ahead on a
rock-solid labor market and rising wages. Moreover, the latest round
2.2
of tariffs that came into effect in September are likely to be passed on
2
1.9
to consumers through higher costs and could put additional upward
pressure on inflation. FocusEconomics panelists see inflation averaging
1 1.6 1.8% in 2019 and 2.0% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s
Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 May Aug Nov Feb May Aug

GDP, real annual variation in %, Q1 GDP, evolution of 2019 and 2020

estimate.
2016 - Q4 2020. forecasts during the last 18 months.

• At its 17–18 September meeting, the Fed cut its target range to 1.75%–
2.00%, amid elevated external risks from the trade dispute and a weaker
global context, and signaled a potential balance sheet expansion.
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts Although the Bank’s latest dot plot reasserted it was not entering an
3 2.4 easing cycle, a small majority of our panelists see rates being cut another
2019 2020
quarter point before year-end. FocusEconomics panelists expect the
2 2.2
federal funds rate to end 2019 at 1.80% and 2020 at 1.64%.

• On 19 September, the dollar index traded at 98.3, virtually unchanged

1 2.0
from the prior month. The dollar had strengthened after the Fed’s
United States second “hawkish cut”, which came shortly after the ECB’s latest stimulus
G7
0 1.8 package. However, renewed optimism in U.S-China trade talks was
Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 May Aug Nov Feb May Aug

Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2019 and 2020
quickly dimmed when Chinese officials cancelled a visit to U.S. farms
variation in %, Q1 2016 - Q4 2020. forecasts during the last 18 months. during their two-day negotiations.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast |2

FOCUSECONOMICS United States October 2019

REAL SECTOR | Second estimate confirms economy slowed in Q2

Economic growth in the second quarter was slightly lower than previously
reported, according to a second GDP estimate released by the Bureau of
Economic Analysis. The economy expanded 2.0% over the previous quarter
in seasonally-adjusted annualized terms (SAAR), which was down a notch
from the advance estimate of 2.1% growth and well below the 3.1% expansion
logged in Q1. In annual terms, growth was unchanged at 2.3% in Q2, down
from 2.7% in Q1.

Overall, the second GDP reading reaffirmed the diverging trends in the
economy: While downward revisions to most components emphasized
growing weaknesses within the economy, private consumption growth was
even more robust than initially expected. Particularly, investment figures
fared more poorly than previously reported. The contraction in private fixed
Gross Domestic Product | variation in %
investment was slightly sharper than in the first reading (Q2: -1.1% SAAR;
4
Quarter-on-quarter SAAR previous estimate: -0.8% SAAR; Q1: +3.2% SAAR), while residential
Year-on-year investment fell considerably more than projected in the previous estimate.
3 Moreover, the downward revision to inventories increased its drag on growth
in the quarter. Weaker state and local government spending than previously
2 estimated brought government expenditure growth down to 4.5% SAAR in
% Q2 from the 5.0% advance estimate (Q1: +2.9% SAAR). On a brighter note,
1 personal consumption was revised up notably, from 4.3% to 4.7%, highlighting
the sustained strength of the American consumer despite protracted trade
0
tensions with China.
Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019

Note: Quarter-on-quarter annualized changes and annual variation of seasonally
adjusted GDP in %.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and FocusEconomics Consensus
Forecast.
Turning to the external sector, exports of goods and services fell an even
sharper 5.8% (previous estimate: -5.2% SAAR; Q1: +4.1% SAAR), while
growth in imports of goods and services was unchanged (Q2: +0.1% SAAR;
Q1: -1.5% SAAR).

Looking ahead, economic growth is expected to cool further as trepidation

among businesses amid the escalating trade tensions with China dampens
investment. That said, resilient household spending should continue
supporting the economy.

The Federal Reserve expects economic growth of 2.2% in 2019 and 2.0% in
2020. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand
2.3% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate.
For 2020, the panel expects the economy to expand 1.6%, which is also down
0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

REAL SECTOR | ISM manufacturing index falls into contractionary

ISM Manufacturing Index
territory for first time in three years in August
65
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index fell to 49.1 in
August from 51.2 in July, the lowest reading since January 2016. The reading
60
undershot analysts’ expectations of 51.1, while also crossing below the 50-
threshold that separates expansion from contraction in the sector, ending 35
55 consecutive months of expansion.

50 The contraction was due to a sharp decline in new orders, which thus caused
production to fall as well. The new orders sub index fell for the first time since
45
December 2015, halting 43 months of expansion, and came on the back of a
Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19
steep drop in export orders, which fell to their lowest level since the financial
Note: Manufacturing ISM Report On Business (PMI). Readings above 50 indicate crisis. Weaker conditions fed through to employment, with job creation
an expansion in the manufacturing sector while readings below 50 point to a
contraction. contracting in August, after increasing in July, while feeble demand prompted
Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
businesses to reduce backlogs of work.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast |3

FOCUSECONOMICS United States October 2019

The gloomy August ISM report comes hot on the heels of the recent escalation
in the chronic U.S.-China trade dispute with a new round of U.S. tariffs on
USD 112 billion of Chinese goods coming into effect on 1 September. Many
respondents noted that while current business remains solid, the uncertainty
caused by the trade row was a major factor in the decline and is likely weighing
on companies’ decision to invest.

One respondent noted that, “While business is strong, there is an undercurrent

of fear and alarm regarding the trade wars and a potential recession.”

On the supply side, supplier delivery times slowed in August, however only
marginally and suggested supply chain constraints are minimal. Meanwhile,
inventories of inputs contracted again, albeit at a weaker pace, reflecting
weaker demand. Input prices fell in August, with raw material prices for the
majority of goods falling in the month.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production

to increase 0.9% in 2019, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last
month’s forecast. In 2020, panelists see industrial production rising 0.8%,
which is also down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s estimate.

REAL SECTOR | U.S. retail spending remains resilient in August

Nominal retail sales increased 0.4% over the prior month in seasonally-
adjusted terms in August, down from the revised 0.8% rise registered in
July (previously reported: +0.7% month-on-month) but exceeding market
expectations of softer 0.2% growth. The strong turnout signals that household
spending continues to be the heavy lifter in the economy and will likely mask
growing weaknesses in other sectors in the third quarter GDP result. That
Retail Sales | variation in % said, the latest round of tariffs on Chinese goods that came into effect on 1
3.0 8.0 September, which target more consumer goods, could gradually dampen retail
sales moving forward, particularly if businesses pass off costs to consumers.
1.5 6.0

% %
Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food
services—also known as core retail sales as they most closely reflect private
0.0 4.0
consumption in the GDP readings—rose 0.3% on a month-on-month basis in
August, down from July’s robust 1.0% gains.
-1.5 2.0

Month-on-month s.a. (left scale)

Year-on-year (right scale) Strong retail sales growth in August was due to a surge in motor vehicle and
-3.0 0.0
Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19 parts sales—usually a very volatile category—while non-store retail sales,
which includes online shopping, posted another notable jump. Moreover,
Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year variation of nominal retail sales in %.
Source: United States Department of Commerce. health and personal care sales recovered in the month. On the other hand,
sales at brick-and-mortar stores; clothing and accessories retailers; and food
services and drinking places declined in August.

In annual terms, retail sales growth accelerated to 4.1% in August from a

revised 3.6% in July (previously reported: +3.4 year-on-year). Conversely,
annual average retail sales growth softened to 3.4% from 3.5%.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect private consumption

to grow 2.5% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s
forecast. For 2020, the panel sees private consumption increasing 2.1%,
which is unchanged from last month’s projection.

REAL SECTOR | Non-farm payrolls make more modest gains in August

The labor market continued to be in good standing midway through the third
quarter, however details of the August jobs report show signs of weakening

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast |4

FOCUSECONOMICS United States October 2019

economic momentum. Non-farm payrolls increased 130,000 in August, down

from July’s revised 159,000 rise (previously reported: +164,000) and notably
undershooting market expectations of 163,000. Nevertheless, the three-month
average payroll gains clocked in at 156,000 in August, which was above July’s
print of 133,000 and comfortably above the 100,000 needed to absorb new
Labor Market
entrants in the workforce.
400 4.5
Var. In non-farm payrolls (left scale) Slower job creation in August was driven by weaker hiring activity in private
Unemployment rate (right scale)
4.3 service-providing sectors due to sharper losses in retail and slower job growth
300
in education and health services. That said, payroll growth was partially
4.1
boosted by a strong rise in government jobs, which was linked to the hiring of
200 %
temporary workers for the undertaking of the 2020 Census. More positively,
3.9
goods producing hiring activity rebounded in the month on robust construction
100
3.7 payroll gains.

0
Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19
3.5 The unemployment rate held steady at 3.7% in August, which matched market
expectations, while the labor force participation rate inched up from 63.0%
Note: Month-on-month variation of non-farm payrolls in thousands and
unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted in %.
to 63.2% in August. Meanwhile, earnings improved somewhat in the month,
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. with hourly earnings increasing 0.4% month-on-month, up from 0.3% in July.
However, annual wage growth edged down to 3.2% in August from 3.3% in
July, which was in line with expectations.

FocusEconomics panelists expect the unemployment rate to average 3.7%

in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.8% in 2020,
which is also unchanged from last month’s estimate.

REAL SECTOR | Home price growth cools in June

On a month-on-month basis, the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite home
price index rose 0.3% in June, down from the 0.6% increase in May. When
adjusted for seasonal factors, however, home price growth was flat in June,
which was down from May’s 0.1% rise and below market expectations of a
0.2% uptick.

In annual terms, home price growth slowed to a near seven-year low of 2.1%
in June from 2.4% in May, underwhelming analysts’ expectations of 2.3%
Home Prices
growth. West Coast markets, which had been major drivers of price growth in
1.2 8.0
2018, continued to cool, particularly in Seattle, where house prices fell again,
and San Francisco. That said, Las Vegas and Phoenix continued see the
strongest gains, with Tampa trailing closely behind. Overall, 14 out of the 20
0.6 4.0
cities in the index registered slower annual price growth in June than in May.
% %

0.0 0.0
Commenting on the reading, Philip Murphy, managing director and global
head of index governance at S&P Dow Jones Indices, noted:
Month-on-month (left scale)
Year-on-year (right scale)
-0.6 -4.0 “Home price gains continue to trend down, but may be leveling off to a
Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19
sustainable level […] While housing has clearly cooled off from 2018, home
Note: S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 home price value index and month-on- price gains in most cities remain positive in low single digits. Therefore, it
month non-seasonally adjusted variation.
Source: Standard & Poor’s. is likely that current rates of change will generally be sustained barring an
economic downturn.”

FocusEconomics panelists expect home prices to increase 2.6% in 2019,

which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2020,
panelists see home prices rising 2.7%, which is down 0.2 percentage points
from last month’s estimate.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast |5

FOCUSECONOMICS United States October 2019

OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence ebbs slightly in August but remains

elevated
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index ticked down to 135.1 in
August following July’s revised rebound to 135.8 (previously reported: 135.7).
Consumer Confidence Nonetheless, the print overshot market expectations of 130.0 and the index
140 remains comfortably above the 100-point threshold that separates consumer
optimism from pessimism.
130

The slight downturn in August was chiefly driven by households’ mildly less
120
upbeat assessment of the short-term outlook. Consumers were somewhat
110
less optimistic about the business climate as well as the labor market, with
more consumers anticipating fewer jobs in the months ahead. Regarding
100 personal finances, the percentage of respondents expecting their income
prospects to improve declined; however, those expecting a drop in income
90
Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19 also decreased.

Note: Consumer Confidence Index.

Source: The Conference Board. On a brighter note, consumers had a more positive view of current conditions
in August: They were more optimistic about both business conditions as well as
the job market. The labor differential—the difference between the percentage
of respondents who state that jobs are plentiful and those who say that jobs
are hard to get—rose from 33.1 in July to 39.4 in August.

Commenting on this month’s reading, Lynn Franco, senior director of economic

indicators at The Conference Board, noted:

“The Present Situation Index is now at its highest level in nearly 19 years […]
While other parts of the economy may show some weakening, consumers
have remained confident and willing to spend. However, if the recent escalation
in trade and tariff tensions persists, it could potentially dampen consumers’
optimism regarding the short-term economic outlook.” 

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation eases in August

Consumer prices rose 0.1% over the prior month in August, down from the 0.3%
Inflation | Consumer Price Index increase registered in July. The weaker print matched market expectations
0.6 4 and was driven by a sharp drop in energy prices, particularly for gasoline. That
said, core consumer prices—which exclude volatile items such as food and
energy—rose 0.3% in August for the third month in a row, reflecting a sharp
0.3 2 price jump in medical care services and still-strong rental costs.
% %
Inflation softened to 1.7% in August from 1.8% in July, which also met market
0.0 0
expectations. On the other hand, core inflation accelerated to 2.4% in August
Month-on-month (left scale) from 2.2% in July. Meanwhile, the personal consumption expenditures price
Year-on-year (right scale)
index—a separate gauge that is closely monitored by the Fed—remained
-0.3 -2
Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19 below the Bank’s 2.0% target at 1.6% in July, the latest month for which data
is available.
Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of seasonally adjusted
consumer price index in %.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect inflation to average
1.8% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2020, the panel
expects inflation to average 2.0%, which is also unchanged from last month’s
estimate.

MONETARY SECTOR | U.S. Fed cuts rates a second time in September in

another insurance move against growing headwinds
At its 17–18 September monetary policy meeting, the Federal Reserve’s
Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to cut its target range for the federal
funds rate to 1.75%–2.00%. The Bank’s decision came in a bid to stimulate

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast |6

FOCUSECONOMICS United States October 2019

economic activity and to “provide insurance against ongoing risks”, as Fed

Chairman Jerome Powell explained, and was in line with the large majority of
FocusEconomics panelists’ expectations.

The Fed’s decision to ease monetary conditions was to safeguard against

intensifying external headwinds from slower global growth and uncertainty
from the U.S.-China trade dispute, which are dragging on business
investment and exports, despite a favorable economic outlook. The Fed
continued to deem the economy as strong, against the backdrop of robust
household spending buttressed by a solid labor market. The Fed revised
up its GDP growth projection to 2.2% for 2019 (June forecast: +2.1%) and
continues to expect growth of 2.0% in 2020. Meanwhile, inflation continues
to persistently run below the Fed’s 2.0% target amid subdued energy price
pressures, giving the Bank additional space to turn more accommodative. In
his press conference following the announcement, Powell also mentioned the
Fed would be assessing the size of its balance sheet in upcoming meetings,
suggesting that a return to balance sheet expansion at the October meeting
is very likely.

Monetary Policy Notably, the Fed remained divided over the course of action as several
3 4800 policymakers voted against the quarter-point rate cut. One member voted in
Total Assets (USD bn, right scale)

Federal Funds Target Rate (%, left scale)

favor of a deeper cut, while two members voted to hold rates steady.

2 4200 The Bank’s announcement comes on the heels of its first intervention in the
overnight lending market since the financial crisis. On 17 September, the
%
New York Fed unleased USD 53 billion of short-term cash after tight liquidity
1 3600
conditions pushed the federal funds rate well above the upper limit of the target
range. This was followed by a second injection of USD 75 billion the following
day. The overnight lending market is vital for banks’ short-term borrowing and
0 3000
Mar-15 Dec-15 Sep-16 Jun-17 Mar-18 Dec-18 Sep-19 rising pressures raises concerns over low reserve levels.

Note: Total assets in the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve in USD billion
and Federal Funds Target Rate in %. The Fed’s statement was relatively devoid of forward guidance, while Powell’s
Source: Federal Reserve.
statement also lacked clear direction. According to the Fed’s dot plot—which
tracks the projections for the future rate path—the median forecast is for the
target range to remain as is, and only a handful of participants expect another
25-basis point cut before year-end.

DBS chief economist Taimur Baig sees the Fed holding steady the remainder
of the year, noting:

“We frankly find little to justify today’s rate cut. We also don’t see the market’s
expectation of another cut this year as highly plausible, given the tension
among the FOMC’s voting members. Unless US-China relationships nose
dive in the coming months, or the US economy shows some sudden loss
of momentum, the Fed will remain on the sideline this year, in our view,
regardless of President Trump’s highly antagonistic tweets.”

Analysts at UniCredit, on the other hand, continue to see further easing

ahead, stating:

“We continue to expect another 25bp cut in December, followed by two cuts in
1H20, taking the target range for the fed funds rate to 1.00-1.25% by the end
of 2Q20, largely reflecting our expectation that US growth will be slower than
the Fed currently expects.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast |7

FOCUSECONOMICS United States October 2019

The majority of FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect one

more 25 basis-point cut before the end of the year and see the federal funds
rate ending 2019 at 1.80% and 2020 at 1.64%.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast |8

FOCUSECONOMICS United States October 2019

Economic Indicators | 2014 - 2023

Annual Data 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Real Sector
Population (million) 319 321 323 325 327 330 332 334 336 339
GDP per capita (USD) 55,010 56,787 57,901 60,000 62,869 65,018 66,951 69,024 71,226 73,565
GDP (USD bn) 17,527 18,225 18,715 19,519 20,580 21,427 22,215 23,059 23,958 24,914
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 4.4 4.0 2.7 4.3 5.4 4.1 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 2.5 2.9 1.6 2.4 2.9 2.3 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 2.7 3.6 1.9 2.6 3.1 2.4 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.0 3.7 2.7 2.6 3.0 2.5 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -0.9 1.9 1.8 0.7 1.7 2.0 1.5 0.9 0.7 0.5
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 6.6 3.4 1.9 4.2 4.6 2.1 1.3 2.4 2.7 3.1
Non-Residential Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 7.2 1.8 0.7 4.4 6.4 2.8 1.3 2.5 3.0 3.5
Residential Investment (ann. var. %) 3.8 10.2 6.5 3.5 -1.5 - - - - -
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 4.2 0.5 0.0 3.5 3.0 0.3 1.2 2.5 2.7 2.9
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 5.0 5.3 2.0 4.7 4.4 1.7 1.8 2.7 3.3 3.8
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 3.1 -1.0 -2.0 2.3 3.9 0.9 0.8 1.6 1.7 1.8
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 4.3 2.6 3.0 4.2 4.9 - - - - -
Light Vehicle Sales (million) 16.5 17.4 17.5 17.1 17.2 16.9 16.6 16.7 16.9 17.0
Housing Starts (million) 1.00 1.11 1.17 1.20 1.25 1.25 1.27 1.35 1.42 1.49
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices (ann. var. %) 7.9 5.0 5.2 5.9 5.8 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.4
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 6.2 5.3 4.9 4.4 3.9 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.3
Fiscal Balance (Federal, % of GDP) -2.8 -2.4 -3.7 -3.4 -3.8 -4.6 -4.7 -4.7 -4.8 -4.8
Public Debt (% of GDP) 104 104 107 105 107 107 109 109 111 112
Monetary and Financial Sector
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 1.6 0.1 1.3 2.1 2.4 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, aop) 1.8 1.8 2.2 1.8 2.1 - - - - -
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 1.6 -0.9 0.4 2.3 2.9 - - - - -
Federal Funds Target Rate (%, eop) 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.50 2.50 1.80 1.64 1.66 1.95 2.25
3-Month LIBOR rate (%, eop) 0.26 0.61 1.00 1.69 2.81 1.86 1.72 1.95 2.22 2.49
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 2.17 2.27 2.45 2.41 2.69 1.66 1.89 2.15 2.47 2.78
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.20 1.14 1.12 1.16 1.20 1.23 1.25
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.33 1.11 1.11 1.13 1.18 1.13 1.14 1.18 1.21 1.24
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.1 -2.2 -2.3 -2.3 -2.4 -2.5 -2.5 -2.6 -2.6 -2.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -365 -408 -428 -440 -491 -534 -562 -599 -634 -672
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -750 -762 -750 -805 -887 -910 -927 -988 -1,046 -1,104
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 1636 1,511 1,457 1,554 1,674 1,698 1,750 1,858 1,970 2,081
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 2385 2,273 2,207 2,359 2,562 2,608 2,677 2,847 3,016 3,186
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 202 468 472 277 252 - - - - -
Quarterly Data Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.1 2.5 2.7 2.3 2.0 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq saar %) 2.9 1.1 3.1 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7
Private Consumption (saar %) 3.5 1.4 1.1 4.7 3.1 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0
Government Consumption (saar %) 2.1 -0.4 2.9 4.5 0.7 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.1 1.0
Fixed Investment (saar %) 0.7 2.7 3.2 -1.1 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.3 1.7 1.8
Non-Residential Fixed Investment (saar %) 2.1 4.8 4.4 -0.6 0.9 1.9 1.5 1.1 1.9 2.0
Exports (G&S, saar %) -6.2 1.5 4.1 -5.8 1.6 1.3 2.1 1.8 2.2 2.4
Imports (G&S, saar %) 8.6 3.5 -1.5 0.1 2.9 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.3
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.6 2.2 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0
Federal Funds Target Rate (%, eop) 2.25 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.00 1.80 1.74 1.71 1.71 1.64
3-Month LIBOR rate (%, eop) 2.40 2.81 2.60 2.32 2.12 1.86 1.79 1.75 1.74 1.72
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 3.06 2.69 2.41 2.00 1.72 1.66 1.74 1.76 1.86 1.89
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.16 1.14 1.12 1.14 1.12 1.12 1.13 1.15 1.15 1.16
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.4 -2.8 -2.6 -2.4 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.7 -2.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -126 -144 -136 -128 -140 -143 -143 -147 -149 -149
Monthly Data Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19
Industrial Production (mom s.a. var. %) 0.5 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 0.1 -0.6 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.6
Retail Sales (mom s.a. var. %) -0.1 -2.0 1.5 -0.5 1.8 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.4
Unemployment (% of active population) 3.7 3.9 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7
Conference Board Consumer Confidence 136.4 126.6 121.7 131.4 124.2 129.2 131.3 124.3 135.8 135.1
ISM Manufacturing Index (50-threshold) 58.8 54.3 56.6 54.2 55.3 52.8 52.1 51.7 51.2 49.1
Markit Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 55.3 53.8 54.9 53.0 52.4 52.6 50.5 50.6 50.4 50.3
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices (ann. var. %) 4.5 4.1 3.4 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.1 - -
Housing Starts (millions of units, saar) 1.20 1.14 1.29 1.15 1.20 1.27 1.26 1.23 1.22 1.36
Existing Home Sales (millions of units, saar) 5.21 5.00 4.93 5.48 5.21 5.21 5.36 5.29 5.42 5.49
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %) 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.7
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.14 1.12 1.12 1.11 1.14 1.11 1.10
Trade Balance (G&S, USD bn) -53.7 -60.8 -53.1 -50.7 -52.6 -52.0 -55.9 -55.5 -54.0 -

Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast |9

FOCUSECONOMICS United States October 2019

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2023 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 16-Q4 20 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %

6 4 Individual Forecasts 2019 2020

United States
G7 Actinver 2.4 1.8
World ANZ 2.3 1.9
4
3 BayernLB 2.3 1.3
BBVA Research 2.5 2.0
2 Berenberg 2.3 2.0
2 BMO Capital Markets 2.3 1.8
0
BNP Paribas 2.2 1.5
CIBC World Markets 2.2 1.7
1 Commerzbank 2.3 1.7
-2 United States Credit Agricole 2.5 0.9
G7 Credit Suisse 2.3 1.9
-4 0 Danske Bank 2.3 1.7
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 DBS Bank 2.5 1.5
DekaBank 2.2 1.8
3 | GDP 2019 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts Desjardins Group 2.3 1.6
DIW Berlin 2.3 1.8
4 4 DNB 2.3 1.5
Maximum
Consensus DuckerFrontier 2.1 1.9
Minimum DZ Bank 2.3 1.8
3 3 EIU 2.2 1.7
Euromonitor Int. 2.3 1.7
Fitch Solutions 2.2 2.0
2 2 Goldman Sachs 2.3 2.2
HSBC 2.3 1.7
Ifo Institut 2.3 1.8
1 1 ING 2.3 1.3
Maximum
Consensus Intesa Sanpaolo 2.3 1.8
Minimum JPMorgan 2.2 1.7
0 0
Julius Baer 2.2 1.1
May Aug Nov Feb May Aug May Aug Nov Feb May Aug
KBC 2.3 1.7
Kiel Institute 2.2 1.5
5 | GDP 2019 | Panelist Distribution Lloyds Bank 2.3 1.6
Macroeconomic Advisers 2.3 2.1
80% Moody's Analytics 2.3 1.7
National Bank of Canada 2.2 1.8
Nomura 2.3 1.5
60% NORD/LB 2.3 1.8
Nordea 2.3 1.5
Oxford Economics 2.2 1.6
40% Pezco Economics 2.2 1.5
Raiffeisen Research 2.3 1.5
RBC Capital Markets 2.3 1.7
20% S-Bank 2.3 1.8
Scotiabank 2.3 1.4
SEB 2.3 1.8
0% Société Générale 2.3 0.7
<1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 >2.9 TD Economics 2.3 1.7
UBS 2.3 1.3
UniCredit 2.2 0.7
Others (9)* 2.3 1.6
Summary
Minimum 2.0 0.7
Maximum 2.6 2.2
Median 2.3 1.7
Notes and sources Consensus 2.3 1.6
History
* Others refers to the Consensus Forecast additional panelists who are not shown in the
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast United States report due to space constraints. A full panelist 30 days ago 2.4 1.7
breakdown is available in the report’s accompanying Excel file. 60 days ago 2.4 1.7
90 days ago 2.4 1.7
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Additional Forecasts
the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus
Forecast. Federal Reserve (Sep. 2019) 2.2 2.0
1 GDP, annual variation in %. IMF (July 2019) 2.6 1.9
2 Quarterly GDP (seasonally adjusted), quarter-on-quarter annualized variation in %. OECD (Sep. 2019) 2.4 2.0
3 GDP, evolution of 2019 forecasts during the last 18 months.
4 GDP, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2019 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 10

FOCUSECONOMICS United States October 2019

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Consumption and Investment 6 | Consumption | variation in %

Consumption Investment
6
variation in % variation in % United States
Individual Forecasts 2019 2020 2019 2020 G7
Berenberg 2.7 2.5 - - 4
BMO Capital Markets 2.6 2.4 2.9 1.7
CIBC World Markets 2.6 2.3 2.4 -0.2
Commerzbank 2.6 2.3 - - 2
Danske Bank 2.5 2.4 - -
DekaBank 2.6 2.2 - -
Desjardins Group 2.7 2.2 2.9 1.0 0
DuckerFrontier 2.1 1.7 - -
DZ Bank 2.5 1.7 - -
EIU 2.4 2.0 - - -2
Euromonitor Int. 2.0 1.8 - - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Fitch Ratings 2.0 2.0 - -
Fitch Solutions 2.0 2.0 - -
Goldman Sachs 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.7 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
HSBC 2.4 2.1 - -
Intesa Sanpaolo 2.7 2.5 2.7 1.3 2.8

JPMorgan 2.7 2.3 - - 2019 2020

Kiel Institute 2.3 1.6 - - 2.6

Macroeconomic Advisers 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.4
Macroeconomic Policy Institute 3.0 2.6 3.1 2.7
2.4
Moody's Analytics 2.6 1.7 3.2 2.8
National Bank of Canada 2.6 2.3 3.0 1.1
Nomura 2.6 2.2 2.9 0.6 2.2

NORD/LB 2.4 1.9 - -

Oxford Economics 2.6 2.2 - - 2.0
Pezco Economics 2.0 1.8 - -
RBC Capital Markets 2.5 2.1 2.6 0.2
1.8
Scotiabank 2.6 2.0 2.7 1.3 May Aug Nov Feb May Aug
Société Générale 2.6 1.5 3.1 -0.7
TD Economics 2.7 2.4 2.5 1.9
UBS 2.5 1.6 - -
8 | Investment | variation in %
Summary
Minimum 2.0 1.5 2.4 -0.7 10
Maximum 3.0 2.8 3.2 2.8
Median 2.6 2.2 2.9 1.3
Consensus 2.5 2.1 2.8 1.3
History 0
30 days ago 2.4 2.1 3.3 2.1
60 days ago 2.3 2.0 3.7 2.4
90 days ago 2.4 1.9 3.3 2.4
-10

United States
G7
-20
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

4.4

3.6

2.8

Notes and sources 2.0

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Bureau of 2019 2020
Economic Analysis (BEA). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
6 Private consumption, annual variation in %. 1.2
7 Private consumption, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months. May Aug Nov Feb May Aug
8 Non-residential fixed investment, annual variation in %.
9 Non-residential fixed investment, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 11

FOCUSECONOMICS United States October 2019

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Exports and Imports 10 | Exports | variation in %

Exports Imports 20
variation in % variation in % United States
G7
Individual Forecasts 2019 2020 2019 2020
BMO Capital Markets 0.1 1.3 1.7 2.1 10
CIBC World Markets 0.4 1.8 2.0 2.0
Commerzbank -0.1 0.3 1.5 0.8
Danske Bank -0.5 0.7 2.0 2.2 0
DekaBank 0.2 1.9 2.0 2.7
Desjardins Group -0.2 -1.8 1.6 -0.4
DIW Berlin -0.2 0.5 1.6 1.3 -10
DuckerFrontier 1.6 2.1 1.5 2.2
DZ Bank -0.1 0.6 1.6 -0.5
EIU 2.8 2.1 2.6 1.8 -20
Fitch Solutions 2.8 2.6 2.8 2.6 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Goldman Sachs -0.3 0.5 1.7 2.0

HSBC 0.1 1.3 1.6 1.9
Intesa Sanpaolo 0.1 1.3 1.7 2.2 11 | Exports | evolution of fcst
JPMorgan -0.1 1.1 1.8 2.8
Kiel Institute 0.4 2.3 1.9 2.8 4.0

Macroeconomic Advisers -0.1 3.8 1.7 3.9 2019 2020

Macroeconomic Policy Institute 0.9 4.8 2.4 4.5 3.2

Moody's Analytics 0.3 3.9 2.4 4.2
National Bank of Canada 0.0 0.6 1.6 1.2
2.4
Nomura -0.6 -1.1 1.6 1.0
NORD/LB -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5
Oxford Economics -0.1 0.8 1.8 1.5 1.6
Pezco Economics 2.9 2.5 2.1 1.8
RBC Capital Markets 0.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 0.8
Scotiabank 0.0 1.3 1.9 2.8
Société Générale 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.8
0.0
TD Economics -0.1 1.5 1.9 3.0 May Aug Nov Feb May Aug
UBS -0.6 -4.1 1.3 -1.6
Summary
Minimum -0.6 -4.1 -0.5 -1.6
12 | Imports | variation in %
Maximum 2.9 4.8 2.8 4.5
Median 0.0 1.3 1.7 2.0 20
Consensus 0.3 1.2 1.7 1.8 United States
G7
History
30 days ago 0.9 1.5 1.8 2.0 10
60 days ago 1.9 2.0 1.7 2.2
90 days ago 1.8 2.0 1.5 2.2
0

-10

-20
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

13 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

4.5

3.5

2.5
Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Bureau of 2019 2020
Economic Analysis (BEA). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
10 Real exports of goods and services, annual variation in %. 1.5
11 Exports, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months. May Aug Nov Feb May Aug
12 Real imports of goods and services, annual variation in %.
13 Imports, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 12

FOCUSECONOMICS United States October 2019

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Industry and Unemployment 14 | Industry | variation in %

Industry Unemployment 10
variation in % % of active pop. United States
G7
Individual Forecasts 2019 2020 2019 2020
5
Actinver - - 3.6 3.7
BBVA Research - - 3.7 4.0
Berenberg 0.8 0.9 3.7 3.5 0
BMO Capital Markets 0.9 1.4 3.7 3.7
CIBC World Markets - - 3.7 3.9 -5
Commerzbank - - 3.7 3.5
Credit Agricole - - 3.7 4.4
-10
Danske Bank - - 3.6 3.4
DekaBank - - 3.7 3.5
Desjardins Group - - 3.7 3.9 -15
DIW Berlin - - 3.7 3.5 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

DuckerFrontier 1.5 1.4 3.8 3.8

DZ Bank - - 3.7 3.7
EIU 1.0 -0.1 4.0 4.6 15 | Industry | evol. of forecasts
Euromonitor Int. 0.9 0.5 3.8 4.1
Fitch Ratings - - 3.6 3.6 3

Fitch Solutions - - 3.9 4.2

Goldman Sachs 0.6 0.6 3.7 3.3
Handelsbanken - - 3.7 4.1
HSBC 0.7 0.9 3.7 3.8 2

Intesa Sanpaolo 0.9 0.4 3.7 3.5

JPMorgan - - 3.7 3.4
Kiel Institute - - 3.7 3.9
1
Macroeconomic Advisers 0.6 0.6 3.7 3.5
Macroeconomic Policy Institute - - 3.6 3.8
Moody's Analytics 0.9 0.8 3.7 3.7 2019 2020
National Bank of Canada - - 3.7 3.5
0
Nomura - - 3.7 3.5 May Aug Nov Feb May Aug
NORD/LB - - 3.7 3.9
Oxford Economics 0.7 0.2 3.7 3.5
Pezco Economics 1.4 1.9 3.8 3.9
16 | Unemployment | % of active pop.
Raiffeisen Research - - 3.5 4.0
RBC Capital Markets - - 3.7 3.8 11
Scope Ratings - - 3.8 3.7 United States
Scotiabank 1.0 1.5 3.8 4.0 G7
SEB - - 3.6 3.5 9
Société Générale - - 3.7 4.1
TD Economics - - 3.7 3.8
UBS 1.2 0.7 3.7 4.1 7
Summary
Minimum 0.6 -0.1 3.5 3.3
Maximum 1.5 1.9 4.0 4.6 5
Median 0.9 0.7 3.7 3.8
Consensus 0.9 0.8 3.7 3.8
History 3
30 days ago 1.3 1.2 3.7 3.8 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

60 days ago 1.5 1.3 3.7 3.8

90 days ago 1.8 1.4 3.7 3.7
17 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts

4.1

2019 2020

3.9

Notes and sources 3.7

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Bureau of
Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). See below for details. Forecasts based on
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
14 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: BEA. 3.5
May Aug Nov Feb May Aug
15 Industrial production, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
16 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: BLS.
17 Unemployment, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 13

FOCUSECONOMICS United States October 2019

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Fiscal Balance and Public Debt 18 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

Fiscal Balance Public Debt 5
% of GDP % of GDP United States
Individual Forecasts 2019 2020 2019 2020 G7
BBVA Research -4.6 -4.1 - -
Berenberg -4.3 -4.2 106 106 0
BMO Capital Markets -4.5 -4.6 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts -4.7 -4.9 107 108
Coface -4.6 - 107 -
Credit Agricole -4.7 -5.2 - - -5
Danske Bank -4.2 -4.2 106 106
Desjardins Group -4.5 -4.9 - -
DZ Bank - - 111 114
EIU -4.7 -5.1 - - -10
Emirates NBD -4.7 - - - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Fitch Solutions -4.9 -5.1 - -

Goldman Sachs -4.4 -4.5 - -
HSBC -4.6 -4.9 - - 19 | Fiscal Balance | evol. of forecasts
ING -4.6 -4.7 - -
JPMorgan -4.5 -4.5 - - -4.2

Kiel Institute -4.0 -4.1 - - 2019 2020

Macroeconomic Policy Institute - - 107 108
Moody's Analytics -4.4 -4.5 - -
-4.6
Nomura -4.5 -4.8 - -
Nordea -4.6 -4.5 - -
Raiffeisen Research - - 107 108
Scope Ratings -4.6 -4.4 - -
-5.0
Scotiabank -4.5 -4.6 - -
SEB -4.9 -4.6 108 109
Société Générale -4.9 -4.8 - -
UBS -4.6 -4.7 - -
-5.4
UniCredit -4.8 -5.2 107 109 May Aug Nov Feb May Aug
Summary
Minimum -4.9 -5.2 106 106
Maximum -4.0 -4.1 111 114
20 | Public Debt | % of GDP
Median -4.6 -4.6 107 108
Consensus -4.6 -4.7 107 109 125
History
30 days ago -4.5 -4.6 107 109
60 days ago -4.6 -4.7 108 109
90 days ago -4.5 -4.7 108 109 100

75

United States
G7
50
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

21 | Public Debt | evol. of forecasts

110

2019 2020

109

108

Notes and sources 107

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Bureau of
Economic Analysis (BEA). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
18 Federal government balance as % of GDP. 106
May Aug Nov Feb May Aug
19 Federal government balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
20 Public debt as % of GDP.
21 Public debt as % of GDP, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 14

FOCUSECONOMICS United States October 2019

Monetary Sector | Inflation

22 | Inflation | 2000 - 2023 | in % 23 | Inflation | Q1 16-Q4 20 | in % Inflation | annual variation of consumer price index in %
4 3 Individual Forecasts 2019 2020
Actinver 1.8 1.7
3 ANZ 1.8 2.1
BayernLB 1.8 2.1
2 BBVA Research 1.7 2.0
2
Berenberg 1.8 2.1
BMO Capital Markets 1.8 2.0
1 BNP Paribas 1.8 1.8
1 CIBC World Markets 1.8 1.9
Commerzbank 1.8 2.2
0
United States Credit Agricole 1.6 1.7
United States
G7 Credit Suisse 1.8 2.1
G7
-1 0 Danske Bank 2.0 2.3
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20
DBS Bank 1.7 1.6
DekaBank 1.9 2.4
24 | Inflation 2019 | evol. of forecasts 25 | Inflation 2020 | evol. of forecasts Desjardins Group 1.7 1.9
DIW Berlin 1.8 2.1
3.5 3.5
DNB 1.7 1.8
DuckerFrontier 2.1 2.3
DZ Bank 1.9 2.1
EIU 2.0 1.4
2.5 2.5
Euromonitor Int. 1.8 2.1
Fitch Solutions 2.1 2.2
Goldman Sachs 1.8 2.1
HSBC 1.7 2.0
1.5 1.5
Ifo Institut 2.0 2.4
Maximum Maximum ING 1.7 2.1
Consensus Consensus Intesa Sanpaolo 1.7 2.1
Minimum Minimum
0.5 0.5
JPMorgan 1.8 2.2
May Aug Nov Feb May Aug May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Julius Baer 1.7 2.2
KBC 1.9 2.1
Kiel Institute 1.9 2.2
26 | Inflation 2019 | Panelist Distribution Lloyds Bank 1.8 2.0
Macroeconomic Advisers 1.8 2.3
60% Moody's Analytics 1.8 2.0
National Bank of Canada 1.9 2.3
Nomura 1.7 2.2
NORD/LB 2.0 2.3
40% Nordea 1.8 1.8
Oxford Economics 1.8 2.0
Pezco Economics 1.9 1.8
Raiffeisen Research 1.7 2.0
20% RBC Capital Markets 1.7 1.9
S-Bank 1.7 2.0
Scotiabank 1.8 2.2
SEB 1.7 1.9
0%
Société Générale 1.9 2.2
<1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 >2.5 TD Economics 1.7 2.3
UBS 1.7 2.0
UniCredit 1.9 1.7
Others (2)* 2.1 -
Summary
Minimum 1.6 1.4
Maximum 2.3 2.4
Median 1.8 2.1
Consensus 1.8 2.0
History
30 days ago 1.8 2.0
Notes and sources 60 days ago 1.9 2.1
90 days ago 1.9 2.1
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are Additional Forecasts
from the Bureau of Labor Statisics (BLS). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus
Forecast. IMF (Apr. 2019) 2.0 2.7
22 Inflation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %.
23 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average consumer price index (CPI) in %.
24 Inflation, evolution of 2019 forecasts during the last 18 months.
25 Inflation, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
26 Inflation, panelist distribution of 2019 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval
in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 15

FOCUSECONOMICS United States October 2019

Monetary Sector | Interest Rates

Policy Rate, Benchmark Rate and 10-Year Bond Yield
27 | Policy Rate | in %
Fed Funds 3-Month USD 10-Year Bond
8 Target Rate in % LIBOR in % Yield in %
United States Individual Forecasts 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020
G7 Actinver 1.50 1.25 - - 1.82 1.76
6 ANZ 2.00 2.00 - - - -
BayernLB 2.00 1.75 - - 1.90 2.30
BBVA Research 2.00 1.75 - - 1.71 1.82
4 Berenberg 1.75 1.75 - - 1.75 -
BMO Capital Markets 1.75 1.75 1.74 1.90 1.75 2.13
BNP Paribas 1.75 1.25 1.70 1.25 1.00 1.50
2
CIBC World Markets 1.75 1.75 1.78 1.78 1.50 2.20
Citigroup Global Mkts 2.00 2.00 2.10 2.10 - -
Commerzbank 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.65 1.25 1.90
Credit Agricole - - 1.91 1.45 2.00 1.90
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Credit Suisse 1.75 1.75 - - 1.80 2.00
Danske Bank 1.50 1.00 1.22 1.00 1.40 1.20
DBS Bank 2.00 2.00 2.10 2.10 1.75 2.20
DekaBank 1.75 1.75 1.90 1.80 1.65 1.75
28 | Policy Rate | evol. of forecasts Desjardins Group 1.75 1.75 - - 1.55 1.60
3.25
EIU - - - - 2.10 1.50
Emirates NBD 2.00 - 2.00 - 1.90 -
Goldman Sachs 1.75 2.00 1.95 2.30 1.75 2.10
Handelsbanken 1.75 1.50 1.93 1.68 1.65 1.75
2.75
HSBC 2.00 2.00 - - - -
ING 1.75 1.75 1.80 1.80 1.50 1.50
Intesa Sanpaolo 2.00 1.75 1.94 1.76 1.38 1.68
2.25
JPMorgan 1.50 1.50 - - 1.50 -
Julius Baer 1.75 1.75 - - 2.10 2.55
KBC 1.75 - - - 1.60 -
1.75
Kiel Institute 1.50 1.00 - - - -
2019 2020
Lloyds Bank 2.00 2.00 2.20 2.30 2.00 2.30
Macroeconomic Policy Institute 2.00 2.00 2.20 2.20 2.08 2.46
1.25
May Aug Nov Feb May Aug
Moody's Analytics 1.75 1.50 1.92 1.62 2.06 2.67
National Bank of Canada 1.75 1.75 1.60 1.59 1.86 2.18
Nomura 1.75 1.75 - - 1.70 2.15
NORD/LB 2.00 - 2.10 - 1.80 -
29 | 10-Year Bond Yield | in % Nordea 2.00 1.50 1.90 1.80 1.50 1.60
Oxford Economics 1.50 1.50 1.75 1.63 1.43 1.67
6
Pezco Economics 1.50 1.50 - - 1.90 1.80
Raiffeisen Research 2.00 1.50 1.90 1.50 1.80 1.50
RBC Capital Markets 1.75 1.75 - - 1.50 2.10
Scope Ratings 2.00 1.75 - - - -
4
Scotiabank 1.75 1.75 1.60 1.60 1.60 2.20
SEB 1.75 1.50 - - 1.50 1.30
Société Générale 2.00 - - - 1.50 -
Standard Chartered 1.75 - 2.00 - 1.50 -
2 Swedbank 1.75 1.50 - - 1.40 1.50
TD Economics 1.75 1.75 1.95 1.95 1.70 2.00
United States UBS 2.00 1.00 1.99 1.11 1.00 1.25
G7 UniCredit 1.75 1.25 1.63 1.35 1.75 2.25
0 Summary
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Minimum 1.50 1.00 1.22 1.00 1.00 1.20
Maximum 2.00 2.00 2.20 2.30 2.10 2.67
Median 1.75 1.75 1.91 1.72 1.70 1.90
30 | 10-Year Bond Yield | evol. of fcst Consensus 1.80 1.64 1.86 1.72 1.66 1.89
History
3.5
30 days ago 1.95 1.77 1.97 1.90 1.91 2.11
60 days ago 2.09 1.92 2.07 1.99 2.06 2.23
90 days ago 2.22 2.13 2.45 2.37 2.29 2.40
3.0

2.5

2.0
Notes and sources
2019 2020
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. All monetary data are from the Federal Reserve Board
(Fed). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
1.5 27 Federal funds target rate in %.
May Aug Nov Feb May Aug 28 Federal funds target rate in %, evol. of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
29 10-year benchmark bond yield (eop).
30 10-year benchmark bond yield, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 16

FOCUSECONOMICS United States October 2019

External Sector | Current Account Balance

31 | Current Account | % of GDP 32 | Curr Account | Q1 16-Q4 20 | % of GDP Current Account Balance | % of GDP
2 -2.1 Individual Forecasts 2019 2020
United States BayernLB -2.4 -2.3
G7 BBVA Research -2.2 -2.2
0 Berenberg -2.6 -2.6
-2.3 BMO Capital Markets -2.5 -2.6
CIBC World Markets -2.4 -2.2
-2 Citigroup Global Mkts -2.5 -2.6
Coface -2.5 -
-2.5 Credit Agricole -2.6 -2.6
-4 Danske Bank -2.6 -2.7
DekaBank -2.5 -2.5
Desjardins Group -2.5 -2.5
-6 -2.7 DZ Bank -2.3 -2.2
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20
EIU -2.2 -2.3
Emirates NBD -2.5 -
33 | Current Account 2019 | evol. of fcst 34 | Current Account 2020 | evol. of fcst Euromonitor Int. -2.4 -2.6
Fitch Solutions -2.6 -2.7
-1 -1
Maximum Maximum Goldman Sachs -2.6 -2.8
Consensus
Consensus
HSBC -2.6 -2.7
Minimum Minimum
Intesa Sanpaolo -2.5 -2.7
-2 -2
JPMorgan -2.3 -2.4
Kiel Institute -2.4 -2.6
Macroeconomic Policy Institute -2.8 -2.9
-3 -3
Moody's Analytics -2.6 -3.0
National Bank of Canada -2.5 -2.4
Nomura -2.6 -2.6
-4 -4
NORD/LB -2.6 -2.6
Nordea -2.5 -2.3
-5 -5
Oxford Economics -2.5 -2.7
May Aug Nov Feb May Aug May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Raiffeisen Research -2.3 -2.0
RBC Capital Markets -2.5 -2.5
Scope Ratings -2.4 -2.6
35 | Current Account 2019 | Panelist Distribution Société Générale -2.4 -2.4
Standard Chartered -3.0 -2.8
60% TD Economics -2.4 -2.6
UBS -2.6 -2.7
UniCredit -2.4 -2.1
Summary
40% Minimum -3.0 -3.0
Maximum -2.2 -2.0
Median -2.5 -2.6
Consensus -2.5 -2.5
20% History
30 days ago -2.5 -2.5
60 days ago -2.5 -2.5
90 days ago -2.5 -2.5
0%
<-3.2 -3.0 -2.8 -2.6 -2.4 -2.2 -2.0 -1.8 >-1.8

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are
from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus
Forecast.
31 Current account balance as % of GDP.
32 4-quarter moving average of current account balance as % of GDP.
33 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2019 forecasts during the last 18 months.
34 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
35 Current account balance as % of GDP, panelist distribution of 2019 forecasts. Concentration
of panelists in forecast interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger
number of panelists.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 17

FOCUSECONOMICS United States October 2019

Fact Sheet

General Data United States in the Region

Official name: United States of America Population | %-share in G7 GDP | %-share in G7
Capital: Washington D.C. (5.2m)
Other cities: New York (18.8m)
Los Angeles (12.5m) Canada
Canada 4.4%
Area (km2): 9,826,675 Italy 4.8% Italy
7.9% 5.3%
Population (million, 2018 est.): 327 France
France 7.1%
Population density (per km2, 2018): 33.3 8.5% United United
Population growth rate (%, 2018 est.): 0.8 States
42.8%
Kingdom
7.3%
United
Life expectancy (years, 2018 est.): 80.1 Kingdom United
States
8.7% Germany
Illiteracy rate (%, 2015): 1.0 10.2%
52.9%

Language: English Germany

10.8%
Measures: U.S. customary units Japan
Japan 12.8%
Time: GMT-5 to GMT-10 16.5%

Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2017)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 37.0 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 121 2010-12 2013-15 2016-18 2009-11 2012-14 2015-17
100 120
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 75.2
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 33.9 Agriculture Net Exports
80 90

Energy (2016)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 84,262 60
Manufacturing
60
Investment

Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 97,524

Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 4,095
40 Other Industry 30 Government
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 3,902 Consumption

Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 14,829

Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 19,687 20
Services
0 Private
Consumption
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 5,240
0 -30
Transportation (2015)
Airports: 13,513
Railways (km): 293,564
Roadways (km): 6,586,610 Trade Structure
Waterways (km): 41,009 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Los Angeles, New York, Houston

Political Data Other Canada Other

12.9%
Canada
13.2%
15.7% 18.0% ​ ​ ​
​​
President: Donald John Trump ​​​
​​
​ ​ ​ Japan
​​ ​ ​ 5.4%
​
Last elections: 8 November 2016 ​ ​
Mexico
13.9% ​
Next elections: 3 November 2020 Mexico
15.3% Exports Imports
Central Bank Governor: Jerome Powell EU-27 ​ ​​
​ ​​ EU-27
19.6%
18.8%
Other
LatAm ​ China ​
8.5% ​ ​ ​ ​
​ 21.0% ​
​ ​ China Other Asia Other Asia ​ ​
ex-Japan ex-Japan
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings 7.7%
15.2% 14.7%

Agency Rating Outlook

Moody’s: Aaa Stable
S&P Global Ratings: AA+ Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: AAA Stable

Food ​ Food Other

Strengths Weaknesses ​ 10.4% Other
17.6%
Mineral 6.0%
Fuels
​ 6.9%
Mineral ​ ​ 8.2%
Fuels ​
• Growing energy self sufficiency • High public debt ​ 8.8%
​
• Strong domestic market • Persistent current account deficit
• Diversified economy • High household debt Exports Imports
• Flexible job market • Polarized political landscape

Manufact. Manufact.
Products Products
63.2% 78.9%

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 18

FOCUSECONOMICS Calendar
Economic Release Calendar
October 2019

Country Event
20 September Japan August Consumer Prices
23 September Euro area September IHS Markit Composite PMI (*)
23 September France September Markit Composite PMI (*)
23 September Germany September Markit Composite PMI (*)
23 September Japan September Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
24 September France September Business Confidence
24 September Germany September Business Confidence
24 September United States July S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
24 September United States September Consumer Confidence
25 September France September Consumer Confidence
27 September Euro area September Economic Sentiment
27 September France September Consumer Prices (*)
27 September Germany September Consumer Confidence
27 September Italy September Business and Consumer Confidence
30 September Euro area August Unemployment
30 September France Q2 2019 National Accounts (3rd Rel.) (**)
30 September Italy September Consumer Prices (*)
30 September Japan August Industrial Production
30 September Switzerland September KOF Indicator
30 September United Kingdom September GfK NOP Consumer Confidence (**)
30 September United Kingdom September Nationwide House Price Index (**)
1 October Canada July Monthly GDP Estimate
1 October Canada September Markit Manufacturing PMI
1 October Euro area September Consumer Prices (*)
1 October Italy September Markit Manufacturing PMI
1 October Japan Q3 2019 Tankan Business Confidence
1 October Switzerland September Credit Suisse Manufacturing PMI
1 October Switzerland August Retail Sales
1 October United Kingdom September Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
1 October United States September ISM Manufacturing PMI
2 October Japan September Consumer Confidence
2 October Switzerland September Consumer Prices
3 October France September Markit Composite PMI
3 October United Kingdom September Markit/CIPS Services PMI
4 October United States September Unemployment
8 October Canada September Housing Starts
8 October Germany August Industrial Production
10 October France August Industrial Production (**)
10 October Germany August Merchandise Trade
10 October Italy August Industrial Production
10 October Japan August Machinery Orders
10 October United Kingdom August Monthly GDP Estimate
10 October United Kingdom August Industrial Production
10 October United States September Consumer Prices

(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 19

FOCUSECONOMICS October 2019

Date Country Event

11 October Euro area Q2 2019 National Accounts
11 October France September Consumer Prices (**)
11 October Germany September Consumer Prices
14 October Euro area August Industrial Production
15 October United Kingdom August Labor Market
16 October Canada September Consumer Prices
16 October Italy September Consumer Prices
16 October United Kingdom September Consumer Prices
16 October United States September Retail Sales
18 October Canada September Teranet House Price Index
18 October Japan September Consumer Prices
21 October Japan September Merchandise Trade

(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 20

FOCUSECONOMICS

Notes and Statements

Notes October 2019

PUBLICATION NOTE
Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by
FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual
figures due to different forecast panels.

The GDP-weighted averages for the world refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a
monthly basis, and include the following countries and regions, comprising more than 90% of total
global output:

G7 (Group of Seven, 7 countries): Canada, Japan, United Kingdom and United States; France,
Germany and Italy are also Euro area countries.
BRIC (4 countries): Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The term was coined by Goldman Sachs in
November 2001 and has since been widely adopted in investment and finance.
Euro area (19 countries): Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece,
Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and
Spain.
Nordic Economies (5 countries): Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Iceland. Finland is also a Euro
area member.
Additional Countries: Switzerland.

Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation
and exchange rates.

COPYRIGHT NOTE
© Copyright 2019 FocusEconomics S.L.U. Duplication, reproduction, transmission, publication or
redistribution in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise without prior written
consent of FocusEconomics S.L.U. is strictly prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights
reserved under International Copyright Conventions.

The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast – Major Economies is a monthly publication of

FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed
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DISCLOSURE STATEMENT
The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast – Major Economies (“Forecast”) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be
reliable. FocusEconomics and the participating panelists (“Information Providers”) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the
Forecast is accurate, complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from
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exercise of their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific
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FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 21

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ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR KEY INDICATORS IN 131 COUNTRIES IN 12 REGIONS

MAJOR ECONOMIES & SWITZERLAND G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, Euro area, France, Germany & Italy), Switzerland and overview
of the BRIC countries
EURO AREA Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia,
Slovenia and Spain
NORDIC ECONOMIES Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden
CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia
CIS COUNTRIES Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan
SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Romania, Serbia and Turkey
EAST & SOUTH ASIA Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Korea, Mongolia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand
ASEAN ECONOMIES Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia and New Zealand
LATIN AMERICA Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela
CENTRAL AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico
and Trinidad and Tobago
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab
Emirates and Yemen
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, South Africa,
Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe

REAL SECTOR GDP per capita, Economic Growth, Consumption, Investment, Industrial Production, Unemployment Rate, Fiscal Balance and Public Debt
MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR Money, Inflation Rate, Policy Interest Rate and Exchange Rate
EXTERNAL SECTOR Current Account, Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, International Reserves and External Debt

PRICE FORECASTS FOR 34 COMMODITIES IN 4 MAIN GROUPS

ENERGY Brent Crude Oil, WTI Crude Oil, Coking Coal, Gasoil (European market), Gasoline (U.S. benchmark), Natural Gas, Thermal Coal and Uranium
BASE METALS Alumina, Aluminium, Cobalt, Copper, Iron Ore, Lead, Molybdenum, Nickel, Steel (European and U.S. markets), Tin and Zinc
PRECIOUS METALS Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum
AGRICULTURAL Cocoa, Coffee, Corn, Cotton, Palm Oil, Rice, Soybeans, Sugar, Wheat and Wool

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