Journal of Water Resource Engineering and Management

ISSN: 2349-4336
Volume 6, Issue 3
www.stmjournals.com

Floodplain Inundation Modeling and Mapping for Geray

River: Nile Basin, Ethiopia
Eliyas Bezabeh1,*, Fitsum Tesfaye2
1
Addis Ababa Science and Technology University, College of Architecture and Civil Engineering,
Department of Water Supply and Sanitary Engineering, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia;
2
Addis Ababa Science and Technology University, College of Architecture and Civil Engineering,
Coordinator for Centre of Excellence in Construction Quality and Technology, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Abstract
Flood is one of the most dangerous naturally occurring catastrophic hazards now days
displacing and killing people and destroying properties. During high flow, the Geray River
flooded the vicinity of the area and causes loss of cultivated land and life. The objective of this
study describes the flood extent and depth in the Geray River for different flow conditions.
This research involves the integration of HEC-HMS, HEC-RAS, and GIS to develop a
regional model for floodplain determination and modeling analysis representation. The
hydrologic model is calibrated using of HEC-HMS for daily time series data for return
periods of 2, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years. One dimensional hydraulic model HEC-RAS with
HEC-GeoRAS interface in coordination with ArcGIS was applied for the analysis. The result
of the hydrologic model by HEC-HMS showed a flow value of 109.1, 214.9, 274.4, 318.4 and
362.7 m3/sec for return periods of 2, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years, respectively. Accordingly, the
flooded area generated, for the mentioned return periods are 0.87, 1.08, 1.16, 1.23 and
1.29 km2, respectively. The flood depth area showed most of the flooding area had water
depth less than 1.49 m.

Keywords: Floodplain, inundation, model; mapping, flood depth, HEC-HMS, HEC-RAS

*Author for Correspondence E-mail: eliyas.bezabeh@aastu.edu.et

INTRODUCTION In hydraulic flood modeling, availability of

Flooding is one of the worst natural
catastrophes, in terms of economic losses and
the number of deaths [1]. Flooding may occur
as an overflow of water from water bodies
resulting in some of that water escaping its
usual boundaries, or it may occur due to an
accumulation of rainwater on saturated ground
in an aerial flood [2]. Flood is a continuous
natural and recurring event in floodplains of
monsoon rainfall areas like Ethiopia, where
over 80% of annual precipitation falls in the
four wet months [3]. An inundation map
displays the spatial extent of probable flooding
for different scenarios and can be present
either in quantitative or qualitative ways [4].
An integrated approach of Remote Sensing
(RS), Geographic Information System (GIS)
and HEC-RAS has proved to be the most
effective [3].
data in the required spatial and temporal
resolution is vital. Topographic data is one of
such data used as input in hydraulic flood
modeling. Digital elevation model (DEM)
and/or its derivative triangular irregular
network (TIN) is a major source of
topographic data for representing floodplain
and river topography [5].
Problems associated with flood are diverse and
extremely complicated. Floods inundation
build-up the property, endanger lives and
prolonged high flood stages that delay
highway traffic and cause damage to bridge
abutment and other structure [3]. During high
flow, the Geray River flooded the vicinity of
the area and causes loss of cultivated land and
life. As its water carry heavy silt load and the
river has a steep gradient, the river has a

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Floodplain Inundation Modeling & Mapping for Geray River Bezabeh and Tesfaye

tendency to move sideways. The main Data Collection and Analysis

objective of this study is to analyze the
inundation area along the Geray River by
integrating geomorphic, topographic and
hydrological data using GIS and HEC-
GeoRAS/ HEC-RAS Model.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Description of the Study Area
Geray River is located in North-Western part
of Ethiopia, as one of tributary river to the
Abay River. Geray River is exactly located in
Jabi Tehnan Woreda which is one of the rivers
in the Abay subbasin of Ethiopia at Aerial
location between 10°39' and 10° 49̍ N latitude
and 37° 10̍ E and 37°17' E longitude Figure 1.
To execute hydraulic analyses information
such as topography, physical features, land use
and land cover, channel characteristics,
environmental data, any existing or previously
flood studies of the stream, historical flood
data, basin characteristics, precipitation data,
geotechnical data, historical high-water marks,
existing structures.
The hydrological data were collected from the
FDRE Minister of Water, Irrigation and
Electricity; Meteorological data were also
collected from National meteorological agency
of Ethiopia; the digital elevation model (DEM)
and land use were also downloaded from the

Fig. 1: Study Area Map.

(Source: Extracted from ASTER)

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Journal of Water Resource Engineering and Management
Volume 6, Issue 3
ISSN: 2349-4336
United States Geological Survey (USGS) and
the Corn Land Cover Facility (CLCF),
respectively.
Meteorological Data Availability and
Processing
Generally, data for floodplain mapping should
be appropriately adjusted for inconsistency,
corrected for errors, extended for insufficient,
and filled for missing using different
techniques. Daily rainfall and flow, maximum
and minimum temperature data of different
record length for some stations were collected
from National Meteorological Agency (NMA)
and Ministry of Water and Energy.
Estimating Missing Precipitation Data
The normal ratio and quadrant method provide
a weighted mean, with the former biasing the
weights on mean annual precipitation at each
gauge and the later having weights that depend
on the distance between gauges where
recorded data are available and the point
where the value is required. The method is
used when the normal annual precipitation of
the index stations differs by more than 10% of
the missing stations. This method assigns
weights of each surrounding stations [5]. This
is the case for the stations near the study area.
Accordingly, the location and database in
years of the selected stations for missing
perception data are shown in Table 1. The
general formula for computing missing
precipitation by this method is:
ϕn a ϕi
Φn = ∑ri=1 [ ] (1)
r ϕni a
Where, 𝜙𝑛 is the estimate of missing data for
gauged station n, 𝜙𝑛𝑖 is measured rainfall
values of surrounding station i, 𝜙𝑛𝑎. is normal
annual rainfall of station n, 𝜙𝑛𝑖𝑎. is normal
annual rainfall of surrounding stations i, 𝜙𝑖 is
the observed value at station i, and r is a
number of surrounding stations.
Data Consistency and Homogeneity
The trend of the rainfall records at a station
may slightly change after some years due to a
change in the environment (or exposure) of a
station either due to coming of a new building,
fence, planting of trees or cutting of forest
JoWREM (2019) 25-45 © STM Journals 2019. All Rights Reserved
nearby which affect the catch of the gauge due
to change in the wind pattern or exposure [6].
To overcome the problem inconsistency a
technique most widely applied called double
mass curve is used. Double-Mass Curve
(DMC) analysis is a graphical method for
identifying or adjusting inconsistencies in a
station record by comparing its time trend with
those of other stations nearby [7].
To check homogeneity of selected stations in
order to select the representative
meteorological station for the analysis of areal
precipitation on Geray River, checking
homogeneity of group stations is essential, the
homogeneity of the selected gauging stations
monthly rainfall records were carried out by
non-dimensioning using equation [8]:
Pi =
Pi
× 100 (2)
̅
P
Where, Pi is the no dimensional Value of PPT
̅𝑖 is the over years averaged
for the month I, 𝑃
monthly precipitation for the station I, 𝑃̅ is the
over years average yearly precipitation of the
station.
Estimating Flow Data
The daily discharge of the study area has no
stream gauge therefore, the daily discharge
was determined using an area ratio method. In
the absence of sufficient record length or for
completely ungagged areas, data extension and
generation can be employed with the similarity
of the neighboring catchment [9]. To
determine the overall discharge at the
confluence of Geray River, streamflow data
were transferred to the site of interest using
area ratio methods and convolution equation.
The recommended guidelines for area ratio
method to assess the available dependable
flow for the potential assessment purpose is,
n
Aungauged
Qungauged = ( Agauged
) ∗ Qgauged (3)
Where, 𝑄𝑢𝑛𝑔𝑎𝑢𝑔𝑒𝑑 is the Discharge at the site
of interest, 𝑄𝑔𝑎𝑢𝑔𝑒𝑑 is the Discharge at the
gauge site, 𝐴𝑢𝑛𝑔𝑎𝑢𝑔𝑒𝑑 is the Drainage area at
the site of Interest, 𝐴𝑔𝑎𝑢𝑔𝑒𝑑 is the Drainage
area at the gauging site, n is the Varies
between 0.6 and 1.2.
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Floodplain Inundation Modeling & Mapping for Geray River Bezabeh and Tesfaye

Table 1: List of Selected Gauging Stations used for this Study.

Station Name Latitude Longitude Elevation Database (Years)
Felege Birhan 38.07 10.75 2680 1979–2015 (22)
Debre work 38.13 10.73 2740 1970–2015 (27)
Mehal Meda 37.43 10.25 3040 1975–2015 (26)
Debre Markos 37.67 10.33 2515 1954–2015 (52)
Finote Selam 37.27 10.68 1900 1961–2015 (22)

If 𝐴𝑢𝑛𝑔𝑎𝑢𝑔𝑒𝑑 is within 20% of the 𝐴𝑔𝑎𝑢𝑔𝑒𝑑 data available for this paper, the Hargreaves
(0.8≤𝐴𝑢𝑛𝑔𝑎𝑢𝑔𝑒𝑑 /𝐴𝑔𝑎𝑢𝑔𝑒𝑑 ≤1.2) then n=1 to be method is selected. The detailed steps are
used. The estimated discharge at the site will shown below.
be within 10% of actual discharge [9]. ETo = 0.0023(Tmean + 17.8)(Tmax − Tmin )0.5 R a
(4)
Data Filling and Consistency
Before developing a streamflow for Geray Where, 𝑇𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 is the mean of the daily
River using the Leza River, missing flow data temperature, daily maximum temperatures
records for the subbasin must be filled, and it’s (Tmax) and daily minimum temperatures (Tmin)
done by developing correlation (which is a rather than as the average of hourly
measure of the strength of association between temperature measurements.
two continuous variables) between the station Tmax +Tmin
Tmean = (5)
with missing data and any of the adjacent 2
stations with the same hydrological features Where, 𝑅𝑎 is the Daily extra-terrestrial (solar)
and common data periods. Consistency and radiation, it is the solar radiation received at
extension of flow data are analyzed by the top of the earth's atmosphere on a
regression technique. Data consistency for this horizontal surface. It is given by:
paper was done with SPSS software and
24(60)
Microsoft excels for comparison of results. Ra = Gsc dr [ωs sin(φ) sin(δ)
π
+ cos(φ) cos(δ) sin (ωs )]
Evapotranspiration
Evapotranspiration is a collective term that (6)
includes evaporation from the land surface and Where, 𝑅𝑎 is the Extra-terrestrial radiation
transpiration from vegetation cover. Generally, (MJ m-2 day-1), 𝐺𝑠𝑐 - Solar constant = 0.0820
it means that water removed from the MJ m-2 min-1, 𝑑𝑟 is the Inverse relative
watershed [10]. distance Earth-Sun and it is given by:
2π
A relatively accurate estimation of dr = 1 + 0.0033Cos ( J) (7)
365
evapotranspiration is a quite essential element
in the floodplain mapping and modeling and Where, J is the number of the day in the year
the study of the impact of climate change. between 1 (1 January) and 365 or 366 (31
There are two common methods in calculating December) 𝜔𝑠 is the Sunset hour angle and it
evaporation. These are the Penman-Monteith is given by:
method [10], the Priestley-Taylor method and ωs = arccos[− tan(φ) tan (δ)] (8)
the Hargreaves method [11].
Where, 𝜑 is the Latitude of the station (rad), 𝛿
The data requirements for the application of is the Solar decimation (rad) and it is given by:
these three potential evapotranspiration 2π
δ = 0.409sin ( J − 1.39) (9)
methods are very different. The Penman- 365
Monteith method requires solar radiation, air
temperature, relative humidity, and wind Terrain Processing using Arc Hydro and
speed. The Priestley-Taylor method requires HEC-GeoHMS
solar radiation, air temperature, and relative HEC-GeoHMS Geospatial Data Processing
humidity [10]. The Hargreaves method HEC-GeoHMS is a set of ArcGIS tools
requires air temperature only. Because of the specifically designed to process geospatial

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Journal of Water Resource Engineering and Management
Volume 6, Issue 3
ISSN: 2349-4336
data and create input for the HEC-HMS. HEC-
GeoHMS provides the connection for
translating GIS spatial information into model
files for HEC-HMS [12]. The GIS capability is
for data formatting, processing, and coordinate
transformation. Currently, HEC-GeoHMS
operates on DEM to derive subbasin
delineation and to prepare a number of
hydrologic units. HEC-HMS supports these
hydrologic inputs as the starting point for
hydrologic modeling [13]. In this paper, it is
intended to derive parameters like Curve
Number, Basin Lag, and Time of
concentration and Loss.
Terrain Processing Using Arc-Hydro
The first step in doing any kind of hydrologic
modeling involves delineating streams and
watersheds and getting some basic watershed
properties such as area, slope, flow length, and
stream network density [14]. Traditionally this
was done manually by using
topographic/contour maps. With the
availability of DEM and GIS tools, watershed
properties can be extracted by using automated
procedures [14].
The processing of DEM to delineate
watersheds is referred to as terrain pre-
processing. There are several tools available
online for terrain pre-processing. In this study,
Arc-Hydro was used to process a DEM to
delineate watershed, subwaters heds, stream
network and some other watershed
characteristics that collectively describe the
drainage patterns of a basin. The results from
terrain processing can be used to create input
files for many hydrologic models using HEC-
GeoHMS [14].
Hydrologic Modeling with HEC-HMS
HEC-HMS modeling may be taken
considering different time series values such
as daily, hourly, annually and even in a
minute. Accuracy of the model output is high
if it is in reverse order. Although most flood
studies are undertaken considering hourly time
steps, there are cases where daily data are
taken. In this paper, both daily data by gage
weight method and frequency storm method
are considered to compare the output result for
JoWREM (2019) 25-45 © STM Journals 2019. All Rights Reserved
each. The first portion covers modeling on a
daily basis [12].
The rainfall has no full data on any station
used for missing data thus making the result
unreliable. Consequently, HEC-HMS outputs
considering daily data using gage weight
method and frequency storm method are used
for further modeling approaches. Then the
model output is compared with frequency
analysis results which are selected by software
called Easy Fit.
Flood Frequency Analysis
Frequency analysis has been applied to
estimate the quantiles for the annual maximum
rainfall and flood data [5]. The objective of
frequency analysis of hydrologic data is to
relate the magnitude of extreme events to their
frequency of occurrence through the use of
probability distributions [15]. Evaluating flood
frequency and determining the design flood
are the final goals for hydrological analysis
and the beginning of integrated flood control
[16]. A design flood is used in comprehensive
flood management to assess the flood defense
capacities of facilities and to protect human
lives and properties within a watershed [17].
Hydraulic Modeling with HEC-RAS
Cross-section Geometry
Boundary geometry for the analysis of flow in
natural streams is specified in terms of ground
surface profiles (cross-sections) and the
measured distances between them. Cross-
sections should be perpendicular to the
anticipated flow lines and extend across the
entire flood plain (these cross-sections may be
curved or bent). For this research paper, it is
made to extend to about a total of 8 km with 4
km at each stretch of the floodplain [18].
Cross-sections are required at locations where
changes occur in discharge, slope, shape or
roughness; at locations where levees begin or
end and at bridges or control structures such as
weirs. Each cross-section is identified by a
reach and river station label. The cross-section
is described by entering the station and
elevations (x-y data) from left to right, with
respect to looking in the downstream direction
[18].
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Floodplain Inundation Modeling & Mapping for Geray River
The cross-section of the Geray River is
extracted both from Google Earth (Figure 2)
and its counterpart digitized DEM/TIN. The
study area TIN is also made from Google
Earth data and the DEM of the area. During
the extraction, the Google Earth data are
assumed to represent the channel geometry
than the DEM. This is because of the fact that
there may be water flowing during the
processing of the DEM. On the other hand, the
resolution of the current DEM is less accurate
for the river channel.
Although the DEM resolution is low for the
channel, it is the best representation for the
floodplain. Integrating both data sources,
therefore, has greater accuracy than the
individual source.
Extraction of river cross-section from freely
available Google Earth software and validation
of river cross-section data in HEC-RAS was
done.
Google Earth is a Geo-Browser that accesses
aerial and satellite imagery, other geographic
data over the internet and ocean bathymetry to
represent the Earth as a three-dimensional
globe. It is also known as “Geographic
Browser” because it maps the Earth by the
aerial photography, the superimposition of
images obtained from satellite imagery, and
Fig. 2: Geray River Cross-section taken from Google Earth.
JoWREM (2019) 25-45 © STM Journals 2019. All Rights Reserved
Bezabeh and Tesfaye
geographic information system (GIS) onto a
3D globe [19].
In Google Earth, the degree of resolution of
the satellite images are based on the points of
interest and popularity, but most land is
covered in at 15 m of resolution. For the rest
part of the Earth's surface, 3D images of
terrain and buildings are available. Google
Earth uses a digital elevation model (DEM)
data collected by NASA’s Shutter Radar
Topography Mission (SRTM) [19].
Using Google Earth software geometric data
of total 20 km of Geray River from upstream
to downstream was executed. The entire length
of the study area is divided into cross-sections
at every 200 m interval. The distance of the
left bank and right bank of each successive
cross-section are also measured using Google
Earth software. Total of 100 numbers of cross-
sections are generated having a minimum
width 73 m and a maximum width of 328 m
along the length of the river as shown in
Figure 3.
Before digitizing the cross-section, the stream
layers must be made available. The layers are;
stream centerline, flow path centerline, flow
path lines (left and right) and bank lines and
these layers overlay on the digitized HEC-
RAS layer as shown in Figure 4.
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Journal of Water Resource Engineering and Management
Volume 6, Issue 3
ISSN: 2349-4336

Fig. 3: Geray River Cross-section in Google Earth.

Fig. 4: A Digitized Geray River Scheme with RAS Layers.

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Floodplain Inundation Modeling & Mapping for Geray River Bezabeh and Tesfaye

The above four features are extracted from the
prepared TIN of the study area which is shown
in Figure 5. The TIN was generated from a
field survey of the area and DEM.
Accordingly, the channel cross-section taken
from Google Earth is made to represent the
river cross-section whereas the DEM to the
floodplain. During digitizing, shapefiles of the
river or contour can be used to follow.
Pre-processing by HEC-GeoRAS in ArcGIS is
the first step in the extraction processes. The
step is used in georeferencing and digitizing
the stream layers for further use in HEC-RAS.
Floodplain Delineation
Areas inundated by flooding occur wherever
the elevation of the floodwater exceeds that of
the land. To delineate these areas, we will
create surface models of the floodwater and
land surface, and then compare the elevations.
HEC-RAS represents the floodplain as a
computed water surface elevation at each cross-
section [5]. During the data import step, these
elevations were brought into ArcGIS, along
with the distance from the stream centerline to
the left and right floodplain boundaries. Hence,
the water surface elevation and width on each
side of the centerline are known about the
floodplain at each cross-section.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Data Consistency and Homogeneity Results
After filling missing data of the precipitation
using Normal Ratio Method which gives
weighted mean with biasing the weights on
mean annual precipitation at each gauge, Data
consistency and homogeneity will be checked
and the results are postulated as shown in
Figures 6 and 7, respectively.

Fig. 5: An Underlying TIN and Associated Geray River.

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Journal of Water Resource Engineering and Management
Volume 6, Issue 3
ISSN: 2349-4336

Finoteselam Debre Markos Debre Work

100
Cumulative Annual Average Rainfall of Felege Birhan Mehal Meda
90
80
70
Each stations

60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Cumulative Annual Average Rainfall of the Five stations

Fig. 6: DMC of Selected Metrological Stations.

Finoteselam Debreworke Felge Berhan

40 Mehal Meda Debre Markos
35
30
25
Pi

20
15
10
5
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Months
Fig. 7: Homogeneity Test for Areal Rainfall Stations.

Here accumulated annual values at the station meteorological stations are Debre Work and
in question are plotted against those of nearby Felege Birhan and were used to fill missing
reliable station or group of stations. An abrupt data of Finote Selam Meteorological stations.
deviation in the slope of the Double-Mass
Curve plot suggests some change not related to Flow Data Estimation
climatic variables, and adjustment should be Geray River is not gauged at the confluence
made to the data on the basis of the ratio of the point. The site of water resource development
slopes of the two segments. in any of the uses can be at or ungagged site. If
gauged data with sufficient record length is
The homogeneity graph is plotted to compare available then such data are used. The
the stations with each other as shown in the neighboring catchment to Geray River is Leza
Figure 7 (similar stations for Geray River). The River. Therefore, by checking the similarity of
figure almost has the same pattern and bimodal. both catchments by their land cover, land use,
Therefore, from the selected stations' ones those soil type, and slope, the area ratio method was
were found to be homogenous with the selected executed as the Figure 8.

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Floodplain Inundation Modeling & Mapping for Geray River Bezabeh and Tesfaye

(a) (b)

(c) (d)
Fig. 8: Catchment Similarity Checking between Geray and Leza using: (a) Landcover, (b) Land use,
(c) Slope (d) Soil Types.

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Journal of Water Resource Engineering and Management
Volume 6, Issue 3
ISSN: 2349-4336
To determine the overall discharge at the
confluence of Geray River, streamflow data
were transferred to the site of interest using
area ratio methods and convolution equation.
The recommended guidelines for area ratio
method to assess the available dependable
flow for the potential assessment purpose is,
n
Aungauged
Qungauged = ( ) × Qgauged
Agauged
Where, 𝑄𝑢𝑛𝑔𝑎𝑢𝑔𝑒𝑑 is the Discharge at the site
of interest, 𝑄𝑔𝑎𝑢𝑔𝑒𝑑 is the Discharge at the
gauge site, 𝐴𝑢𝑛𝑔𝑎𝑢𝑔𝑒𝑑 is the Drainage area at
the site of Interest, 𝐴𝑔𝑎𝑢𝑔𝑒𝑑 is the Drainage
area at the gauging site, n is the Varies
between 0.6 and 1.
If Aungauged is within 20% of the Agaugged
𝐴𝑢𝑛𝑔𝑎𝑢𝑔𝑒𝑑
(0.8≤ 𝐴 ≤ 1.2) then n=1 to be used.
𝑔𝑎𝑢𝑔𝑒𝑑
The estimated discharge at the site will be
within 10% of actual discharge [20].
Aungauged 118.4969
Agauged
= 123.5695 = 0.96
𝐴𝑢𝑛𝑔𝑎𝑢𝑔𝑒𝑑
Therefore, of this site of interest is
𝐴𝑔𝑎𝑢𝑔𝑒𝑑
0.96 in which n is 1 and the area ratio formula
for Geray River is:
Qungauged = 0.96 × Qgauged
Using the Area Ratio method, the above
formula was developed and used to develop
flow data for Geray River based on catchment
similarity with Leza River the result is shown
under Figure 16.
Data Filling for Missing Precipitation Data
Before employing flow data for the ungauged
river of Geray, there need to be data filling of
missing flow data of Leza River using
correlation and developing regression equation
for the river.
The correlation equations used for Leza
gauging station in terms of neighboring
gauging station using one-year streamflow was
done in Table 2, and Leza River with Birr
River which shows good correlation is
expressed.
JoWREM (2019) 25-45 © STM Journals 2019. All Rights Reserved
Table 1: Correlation between Geray and
Other nearby Rivers using SPSS.
Leza Birr Gudela
Leza Pearson Correlation 1 0.758** 0.645**
Sig. (2-tailed) .000 0.000
N 366 366 366
Birr Pearson Correlation 0.758** 1 .574**
Sig. (2-tailed) 0.000 .000
N 366 366 366
(10)
Gudela Pearson Correlation 0.645** 0.574** 1
Sig. (2-tailed) .000 .000
N 366 366 366
**Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
Regression equation developed between Leza
River as a response variable and Birr River as
the explanatory variable used to fill missing
flow data.
Y = 0.3095 + X0.01986 (13)
Where, Y is the missed flow value at Leza
River gage, X is the flow value at Birr River
gauge
Terrain Processing using Arc-Hydro
(11)
Results
All the steps in the Arc-Hydro Terrain
Preprocessing menu were performed in
sequential order, from top to bottom in Figure 9.
The procedure followed for terrain processing
using Arc-Hydro is explained under using
30x30 DEM extracted for the respective
(12) subbasins and river feature class of the study
area. For simplicity the main steps undertaken
by Arc-Hydro processing are DEM
reconditioning, Fill sinks, Flow direction,
Flow accumulation, Stream definition, Stream
segmentation, Catchment grid delineation,
Catchment polygon processing, Drainage line
processing, Drainage point processing, the
longest flow path for the catchment and Slope
determination.
The terrain processing result for the subbasin
is shown in Figure 9.
The output from terrain processing in Arc-
Hydro is not only delineation and schematic
for the catchment but also the extraction of
basin characteristics from physical properties
of the catchment (Figure 10). Among the basin
characteristics, soil and land use are the major
ones. According to the output of the model,
the following parameters are generated.
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Floodplain Inundation Modeling & Mapping for Geray River Bezabeh and Tesfaye

(a) (b)

(c) (d)

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Journal of Water Resource Engineering and Management
Volume 6, Issue 3
ISSN: 2349-4336

(e) (f)

(g) (h)
Fig. 9: Terrain Processing for Geray Subbasin using Arc-Hydro: (a) Raw DEM, (b) Fill Sink,
(c) Flow Direction, (d) Flow Accumulation, (e) Catchment Grid Delineation, (f) Catchment Polygon
Processing, (g) Batch Point Watershed Delineation at the Outlet of Geray River,
(h) HMS Legend and Schematic.

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Floodplain Inundation Modeling & Mapping for Geray River Bezabeh and Tesfaye

Fig. 10: Subbasins of the Geray Catchment.

Table 3: Catchment Characteristic Parameter ones. According to the output of the model the
Extracted. following parameters are generated.
Component Parameter Unit Value
Subbasin 1 CN 82.995 Model Calibration and Validation of HEC-
Ia mm 10.41 HMS Results
A Km2 41.470 A total of 20 years of historical data from 1990
Basin Slope m/m 10.17
to 2015 is used; calibration (1990–1999) and
validation (2001–2010) for the selected
Subbasin 2 CN 83.053
watersheds of the sub basins. Manual and
Ia Mm 10.366
automatic calibration was used for the
A Km2 14.759
optimization of observed and simulated flow
Basin Slope m/m 7.42 data using the initial parameter from
Subbasin 3 CN 82.978 watershed characteristics. Calibration was
Ia mm 10.42 done by taking initial parameters generated
A Km2 9.49 from HEC-GeoHMS and Arc-Hydro for the
Basin Slope m/m 5.31 catchment. With the initial parameters, the
calibration was then processed until the
The output from terrain processing in Arc- simulated value resembles the observed data
Hydro is not only delineation and schematic (Table 4).
for the catchment but also extraction of basin
characteristics from physical properties of the Flow hydrographs for the observed and
catchment shown in Table 3. Among the basin simulated flows at Geray gaging station are
characteristics soil and land use are the major presented in Figure 11.

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Journal of Water Resource Engineering and Management
Volume 6, Issue 3
ISSN: 2349-4336

Table 4: Optimized Parameters of HEC-HMS for Geray Catchment.

Component Parameter Unit Initial Optimized
Subbasin-1 SCS Curve Number-Curve Number 82.995 84.076
Subbasin-1 SCS Curve Number-Initial Abstraction mm 10.41 9.7978
Subbasin-1 SCS Unit Hydrograph-Lag Time min 153.69 153.69
Subbasin-2 SCS Curve Number-Curve Number 83.053 84.136
Subbasin-2 SCS Curve Number-Initial Abstraction mm 10.366 3.0714
Subbasin-2 SCS Unit Hydrograph-Lag Time min 118.01 118.01
Subbasin-3 SCS Curve Number-Curve Number 82.978 84.050
Subbasin-3 SCS Curve Number-Initial Abstraction mm 10.42 23.561
Subbasin-3 SCS Unit Hydrograph-Lag Time min 94.560 94.560
Reach-1 Muskingum – K Hrs 79.807 73.611
Reach-1 Muskingum – X 0.0025 0.0024

Fig. 11: Calibration of HEC-HMS Output.

For these particular paper efficiency
evaluation criteria, parameters must resemble
each other. For the Geray catchment case, the
ENS has a value of 0.565 and R2=0.589
(Figure 12). Therefore, the values determined
from the calibration of the HEC-HMS model
are acceptable.
To validate the model, data of 10 years (2000–
2009) was used by applying the optimized
parameters in the calibration process. And the
output of the validation process has a value of
ENS 0.547 and an R2 of 0.582. This result
implies the validation process is ok to move on
to the next process (Figure 13).
The Output of HEC-HMS by Frequency
Storm
The model has the capability to produce and
generate values for different flow conditions
(return periods). Given the input parameters
from HEC-HMS, the flow values are found

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Floodplain Inundation Modeling & Mapping for Geray River Bezabeh and Tesfaye

accordingly. From the result table, minimum Table 5: Determination of Peak Discharge
peak flow for the Geray River occurred for 2
Using HEC-HMS Frequency Method.
years return period for 24 hour storm duration
No. Return Periods Peak Flow (m3/sec)
and the maximum obtained with 100 years 1 2 109.1
frequency storm for the same duration. The 2 10 214.9
value being 109.1 and 362.7 m3/s for 2 years 3 25 274.4
and 100 years frequency, respectively. Peak 4 50 318.4
flow the rest of the return periods is in Table 5. 5 100 362.7

140 Series1 Linear (Series1)

y = 0.9916x + 4.7471
120
R² = 0.5888
Observed flow

100

80

60

40

20

0
0 20 40 60 80 100
Simulated flow
Fig. 12: Correlation between Observed vs. Simulated Flow.

Fig. 13: Validation of HEC-HMS Output.

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Journal of Water Resource Engineering and Management
Volume 6, Issue 3
ISSN: 2349-4336
Flood Frequency Analysis Results
Finally, the HEC-HMS model result is
compared with the frequency analysis results
considering different techniques. The methods
applied in this paper are selected based on
their Goodness of fit on EasyFit software.
According to the software’s output in Table 6,
Extreme value method was the number one
goodness fit, Log-Pearson, Normal, and
Lognormal following respectively.
Therefore, using the formulas to determine the
magnitude of the hydrological event, output
values of each different distribution method
were compared with the outcome of HEC-
HMS values for each return period.
Flood Inundation on Geray Catchment
With the bounding polygon created (Figure 14),
water surface TIN is created from the given
profiles and underlying DTM/TIN. The water
surface TIN consequently gives rise to
floodplain delineation.
Fig. 14: Water Surface TIN Generated from Bounding Polygon.
JoWREM (2019) 25-45 © STM Journals 2019. All Rights Reserved
Table 6: Comparison of Flow Values
(Frequency Analysis and the HEC-HMS).
Distribution 2 10 25 50 100
Method
EV Type 1 116.56 177.29 207.39 229.95 252.35
Log-Pearson 121.11 165.76 182.26 192.69 201.93
III
Log-normal 164.13 169.31 193.56 210.67 227.17
Normal 171.42 175.94 195.43 207.77 218.75
HEC-HMS 109.1 214.9 274.4 318.4 362.7
With the bounding polygon created (figure
above), water surface TIN is created from the
given profiles and underlying DTM/TIN. The
water surface TIN consequently gives rise to
flood plain delineation. ArcGIS with an
extension of HEC-GeoRAS then delineates
flood plain for different flow conditions. In
this paper, five storm flows were considered
(2, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years). Each storm flow
has different flood plain depth, extent, and
area flood map for 2 and 100 years return
period is shown in Figure 15 and the for 10, 25
and 50 years return period is in Figure 16.
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Floodplain Inundation Modeling & Mapping for Geray River Bezabeh and Tesfaye

(a) (b)
Fig. 15: (a) Flood Map and Depth for 2 years Storm Flow for the Study Area, (b) Flood Map and
Depth for 100 years Storm Flow for the Study Area.

(a) (b)

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Journal of Water Resource Engineering and Management
Volume 6, Issue 3
ISSN: 2349-4336

(c)
Fig. 16: (a) Flood Map and Depth for 10 years Storm Flow for the Study Area,
(b) Flood Map and Depth for 25 years Storm Flow for the Study Area,
(c) Flood Map and Depth for 50 years Storm Flow for the Study Area.

Flood map and depth for 10-, 25-and 50-
years storm flow
From the Figure 15 of the inundation result for
2 and 100 years storm event, it can be seen that
the depth of flood inundated for 2 years storm
event ranges from 0 to 5.08 m with maximum
inundated area is 0.87 km2, for 10 years storm
event flood depth ranges from 0 to 5.44 m with
maximum inundated area is 1.08 km2, for 25
years storm event flood depth ranges from 0 to
5.7 m with maximum inundated area is
1.16 km2, for 50 years of storm event the flood
depth ranges from 0 to 5.87 m with maximum
inundated area is 1.23 km2and finally for 100
years of return period of storm flow the flood
depth ranges 0 to 6 m with maximum area
inundated is 1.29 km2. Most flooding extents
are severing with 100 years and 50 years of
storm events. This is due to the amount of
flood flow.
CONCLUSION
Flooding around Jabi Tehnan Woreda causes
considerable damage to life and property.
Large coverage of the area with cultivated land
makes the problem hard. There was not past
flood forecasting of the area, Therefore, since
the river accomplices to irrigation scheme at
the downstream, this paper can be useful to
avoid upcoming damage due to such effect.
The main source of flooding in Jabi Tehnan
flood plain is a result of flash flood from
rainfall on the upper catchment of the Geray
River catchment from Finote Selam to the
lower reach of the Setein Woreda floodplain. It
is formed as a result of intensive showers, and
steep slope of the areas’ topography.
This study presents a systematic approach in
the preparation of flood mapping with the
application of steady flow models and ArcGIS.
The major tools/models used in this method are
one-dimensional numerical model HEC-RAS
and ArcGIS for spatial data processing and
HEC-GeoRAS for interfacing between HEC-
RAS and ArcGIS.
The automated floodplain mapping and
analysis using these tools provide more

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Floodplain Inundation Modeling & Mapping for Geray River
efficient, effective and standardized results and
save time and resources.
The presentation of results in GIS provides a
new perspective to the modeled data and this 2.
approach can facilitate a transition from a flood
hazard model based on the field investigation
to a knowledge-based model that can be related
to flooding intensity.
The study also made the assessment of flood
hazards in relation to the return period of
floods and their water depth. The relationship 3.
between the flood area and discharge indicates
that there is a medium rate of increase of the
flood area with the increase in discharge. The
examination of the floodwater depth shows that
most of the areas under flooding have water
depth less than 1.5 m with most of the depths
range from 0–1.4 m.
The 100 years return period peak flood
discharge estimated using Computer Programs
HEC-GeoHMS and HEC-HMS found to be 4.
362.7 m3/sec and Ethiopian road authority’s
IDF curves for region A2 is used for flood
analysis in the study area’s plain. Flood
affected areas are delineated for 100 years and
2 years return period peak flood discharge
using two models HEC-GeoRAS and HEC-
RAS one after another, (i.e., first HEC- 5.
GeoRAS then HEC-RAS then back to HEC-
GeoRAS). The left and right sides distance
range of Geray River which is affected by the
100 years returns period peak flood varies from
place to place. The total area affected by this
flood is 1.29 km2 and the area affected by the 2
years flood inundation of 5.08 m is 0.87 km2. 6.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
First and foremost, we would like to thank God
and his Holy Mother Mary, for there care,
support and endless love. And a special thanks 7.
to Addis Ababa Science and Technology
University for their cooperation and allowing
us to use resources without payment. 8.
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Cite this Article
Eliyas Bezabeh, Fitsum Tesfaye.
Floodplain Inundation Modeling and
Mapping for Geray River: Nile Basin,
Ethiopia. Journal of Water Resource
Engineering and Management. 2019; 6(3):
25–45p.
Page 45