Journal of Advanced Research (2010) 1, 29–38

University of Cairo

Journal of Advanced Research

REVIEW ARTICLE

Road map for renewable energy research and development

in Egypt
A. Khalil *, A. Mubarak, S. Kaseb

Mechanical Power Engineering Department, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt

KEYWORDS Abstract Egypt possesses excellent potential for renewable energy (RE) including solar, wind and
Renewable; biomass energy. Renewable energy technologies (RETs) and systems have different needs for sup-
Energy; port in terms of research and development, demonstration and market development. For this pur-
Egypt; pose, the Energy Research Center (ERC) at Cairo University has carried out a study with the
Plan; ultimate goal of formulating a national development strategy and action plan for the local manu-
Manufacturing facture of renewable energy systems (RESs) and components. The present study positions the dif-
ferent RETs and RESs and identifies the research and development needs for each technology. The
study also suggests how to establish a competitive market for RET. For this purpose it builds and
analyses a set of likely scenarios, and proposes a practical development strategy and a detailed
action plan for achieving it.
ª 2009 University of Cairo. All rights reserved.

Study objectives

Abbreviations: CSP, concentrated solar power; ERC, Energy Research
Center; MENA, middle east and north Africa; MOEE, Ministry of
Electricity and Energy; MTOE, million ton oil equivalent; PV,
photovoltaic; RE, renewable energy; RET(s), renewable energy
technology(ies); RES(s), renewable energy system(s); R&D, research
and development; SWH(s), solar water heater(s); WE, wind energy
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +20 123555523; fax: +20 235723486.
E-mail address: adelkhk@yahoo.com (A. Khalil).
2090-1232 ª 2009 University of Cairo. All rights reserved. Peer review
under responsibility of University of Cairo.
Production and hosting by Elsevier
The government of Egypt seeks to enhance technological excel-
lence, attract foreign direct investment and become a leader in
the export of medium-technology engineering products in the
MENA region. In this context, RE is a priority area for short
and long-term industrial promotion. Moreover, energy-related
environmental problems and likely post-Kyoto emission
reduction quotas are becoming increasingly prominent on
the policy agenda. Therefore, the specific objectives of the pres-
ent study include:
1. To review global industrial and innovation policies in the
RE sector and the performance of Egyptian industry and
innovation policy as it applies to RETs. The review includes
consideration of the potential for a choice of specific tech-

doi:10.1016/j.jare.2010.02.003
30
nologies or applications, positioning Egyptian designs [1],
manufacturers and capabilities in relation to other players
in regional and international markets [2–5].
2. To construct a set of future scenarios for the penetration of
RE in the energy system through stakeholder consultation
and to carry out an in-depth quantitative and qualitative
analysis taking into account key variables such as develop-
ments in energy pricing and technology advances.
3. To formulate a clear development strategy and action plan
to enhance the competitiveness of the industry, with
detailed focus on a limited number of technology choices.
This strategy is developed in close collaboration with the
national stakeholders, including representatives of key
institutions and private companies. It also identifies the
research and development needs for each RET and
addresses the potential and costs for the promotion of the
industrial sector involved in RE.
Renewable energy potential
The area west of the Gulf of Suez from south of Soukhna to
Hurghada, especially the Gulf of Elzait, has an excellent
wind regime, exceeding 10 m/s (at a height of 25 m), for
most of the area, as shown in the wind atlas map in
Fig. 1. This area is considered to be one of the uninhabited
desert regions with most potential and could perhaps host
up to 20,000 MW installed wind farm capacity. Other areas,
such as Owaynat, Sinai and the north coast, exhibit moder-
Figure 1 Wind regime map for Egypt (wind atlas for Egypt).
A. Khalil et al.
ate potential with wind speeds in the range of 5–7 m/s [6,7].
The solar atlas indicates that Egypt, as one of the sun-belt
countries, is endowed with high intensity direct solar radia-
tion of 2000–3200 kWh/m2/year from north to south, as
shown in Fig. 2.
Sunshine duration throughout the year ranges from 9 to
11 h with few cloudy days. Solar energy demonstrates high
potential for power generation, amounting to an economic
potential of about 74,000 TWh/year (economically proven
potential) [8,9].
The total amount of biomass resource, including plantation
and non-plantation biomass, fuel crops (energy plantations)
and municipal waste, is in the order of 60 million tons of oil
equivalent (MTOE) per year with gross energy content of
about 855 · 1015 J, which is equivalent to about 20 MTOE/
year. On a conservative estimate, about 20% of the resource
could be used, equivalent to about 4 MTOE/year [1].
Current status of renewable energy industry
Local manufacturing of renewable energy technologies’
components
From the local manufacturing point of view, the stages of local
manufacturing for RET components can be divided into three
categories (A, B and C) as shown in Table 1. It should be men-
tioned that innovation and R&D is a continuous process even
for category A. In this category, innovation and R&D will help
Road map for renewable energy research and development in Egypt
Figure 2 Solar radiation intensity map for Egypt (solar atlas for Egypt).
local manufacturers in reducing production costs and improv-
ing quality. Local manufacturers for each RET system and
component are evaluated and summarized in Table 1 in accor-
dance with the companies’ survey [1].
Renewable energy technologies positioning
Each RET is positioned in relation to each other in line with
the strategic goals and objectives including long-term market
vision. Potential market attractiveness factors include: average
annual growth rate and size, value added for industry, compe-
tition strength, technology requirements, technology maturity
and expected future environmental impacts, technology provi-
sions, implementation satisfaction. The five selected RETs are
positioned for Egypt based on the above factors in Fig. 3
showing that wind energy (WE) technology is leading all other
technologies in power generation [1] followed by solar water
heating (SWH). Concentrating solar power (CSP) technology
is in last position. Photovoltaic technology (PV) is located
in the medium range of positioning, considered a harvesting
domain, followed by biomass technology.
Scenario analysis for renewable energy sector in Egypt
Three scenarios are proposed for RE implementation in
Eygpt’s electric power system which has the largest market
share and the most support facilities available. The first sce-
nario follows the existing plans of the Ministry of Electricity
and Energy (MOEE) [10] and is considered as the low scenario
(business as usual); the second is the medium scenario and the
third is the high scenario. The high scenario includes a propor-
tion of the proven technical potential of RESs in Egypt where
there are ample renewable sources. It should be noted that the
three scenarios are based on a constant requirement for energy
31
produced and on different installed capacities. The difference
in installed power capacities comes from the difference be-
tween the installed and demonstrated power via RES power
generation. Figs. 4 and 5 show installed capacities and energy
generation for recommended RETs in the high scenario [1].
As an example, three scenarios are proposed for the replace-
ment of conventional water heaters with SWHs. The first or
soft scenario [1] assumes a 2% annual replacement of electric
water heaters. The second and third scenarios consider annual
replacements of 3.5% and 5.5%, respectively. The estimated
reduction in electrical energy consumption due to such scenar-
ios is presented in Fig. 6 and shows expected electrical energy
savings of 4.9 billion kWh by the year 2015 for the high
scenario [1].
Proposed development strategy and action plan
The RE strategy is formulated based on the following goals [1]:
 By year 2022 that 16% of energy demand be supplied from
RET excluding large hydropower systems; and the install-
ment of 1.8 million m2 of SWH systems.
 By year 2050 50% of electricity production comes from RE.
These goals together, with a coherent proactive RE policy, will
lead to the achievement of the objectives of increasing the pen-
etration of RE in the national energy market and of developing
an internationally competitive Egyptian industry.
Strategic targets
The proposed strategy focuses on and addresses the following
issues:
32 A. Khalil et al.

Table 1 Evaluation of current local manufacturing capabilities for different components of renewable energy technologies [1].
Category Description
A Local manufacturing; RET components can be produced
directly with current resources of Egyptian Industry
B After innovation and R&D; RET components can be
produced with current resources but with the help of
innovation and R&D; needs about 3 years
C Import/joint venture with foreign companies; RET
components can be produced by Egyptian industry only
when a joint venture with big international companies takes
place (transfer of knowhow takes about 5 years)
Component A B C
Manufacturing of solar water heaters’ components
Glass X X
Absorber plates X X
Selective coating X X
Tanks X
Pumps/control X X X
Insulation X X
Electric heaters and controls X X
Auxiliaries X X
Manufacturing of CSP – parabolic troughs
Reflector material and glass X X
Vacuum and absorber tube X X
Rotary joints X X
Step motor X X
Steel structure X
Sun tracking system X X
Control system X X
Piping X X
Auxiliaries X X
Trough cleaning system X X
Operation and maintenance X X
Manufacturing of wind energy systems’ components
Tower X
Blade X X
Yawing system X X
Gear-box X X
Generator X X
Control systems X X
Cables X
Transformers X X
Auxiliaries X X X
Operation and maintenance X X
Manufacturing of CSP – Fresnel collectors
Flat mirrors and surface quality X X
Step motor X X
Steel structure X
Sun tracking system X X
Control system X X
Piping X X
Auxiliaries X X
Cleaning system X X
Operation and maintenance X X
Manufacturing of biomass units’ components
Fermentation tanks, mild steel, for medium size plants X
Storage tanks X
Gas valves, PVC gas tubes X X X
Gas engines, diesel/gas engines X X X
Gas meters, rubber gas tubes, gas regulators, etc. X
Road map for renewable energy research and development in Egypt 33

Low Medium High

5.00

H
4.00 7 8 9

Market Attractivene
3.00
M

2.00 4 5 6

1.00
L

0.00 1 2 3
0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00
Technology Positioning

Wind CSP PV Biomass SWH

Figure 3 Positioning of renewable energy technologies in Egypt [1].

Installed Capacity (MW) High Scenario

60,000
PV
Hydropower (HYP)
50,000 CSP Technology
Wind Technology (WT)
Thermal Power Plants (TPP)

40,000

30,000

20,000
Installed Power Sharing
2005 2010 2015 2020
TPP 84.4% 82.6% 75.1% 70.7%
WT 0.8% 6.5% 13.7% 17.8%
10,000 CSP 0.0% 0.6% 2.0% 3.9%
HYP 14.8% 10.3% 9.2% 6.9%
PV 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%
Renewables wo HYP 0.8% 7.1% 15.7% 22.3%
-
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Year

Figure 4 Electrical installed power needs and recommended RETs-high scenario.

For the high RET scenario proposed for the year 2022:
 Installation of 10,335 MW of WE (370 MW currently
installed).
 Installation of 2550 MW of CSP (140 MW plant currently
being erected with 20% solar component) [6].
 Installation of 500 MW PV arrays (6 MW already
installed).
 Installation of 1.8 million m2 of SWHs (0.5 million m2
installed).
 Saving of 4 MTOE by utilizing biomass.
 Acquiring 0.5% share of the European union RET market
by 2012 which represents US$ 0.625 billion worth of man-
ufactured components of RE systems.
These estimates are based on the high RET scenario given in
the scenario analysis section of this study and the EU RET
market of Euro 100 billion [4]. In order to achieve these goals
a proactive policy to promote RET should be adopted.
Action plan
The introduction of RETs into the market requires certain pre-
requisites in order to become attractive to investors. These in-
clude: an acceptable mature technology, a reasonably accept-
able profit and an acceptable financial risk. This will require
co-ordination between industry, finance, insurance and poli-
tics. Accordingly, RET strategy should include the following
five basic components (shown in Fig. 7):
34 A. Khalil et al.

Generated Energy (GWh) High Scenario

300,000
PV
Hydropower (HYP)
250,000 CSP Technology
Wind Technology (WT)
Thermal Power Plants (TPP)

200,000

150,000

100,000
Energy Sharing
2005 2010 2015 2020
TPP 87.0% 86.0% 80.3% 77.5%
WT 0.5% 4.6% 10.1% 13.4%
50,000 CSP 0.0% 0.3% 1.2% 2.4%
HYP 12.5% 9.1% 8.4% 6.5%
PV 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
Renewables wo HYP 0.5% 4.9% 11.3% 16.0%
-
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Year

Figure 5 Energy generation needs and recommended RETs – high scenario.

Figure 6 Projected electric water heaters energy consumption and anticipated reduction due to SWH scenarios.

Component (1): Tailored financial instrument to support
RET.
Component (2): Tailored R&D program to enhance capacity
and competitiveness of industry in order to
produce RE components for export to for-
eign manufacturers of RE systems as well
as for the local market.
Component (3): Tailored legislation including a new feed-in
law and feed-in tariff allowing the RE pro-
ducer to pump the produced RE energy to
the national electric grid [11].
Component (4): Market enhancement and infrastructure
development.
Road map for renewable energy research and development in Egypt 35

Figure 7 Basic components of RE strategy for manufacturing RE equipment.

establishment, development and monitoring of an appropri-

Table 2 Potential share of local manufacturers of RE
ate RE stategy.
equipment [1].
Technology % Share of local
manufacturers Manufacturing activities as part of an institutional effort
Reactive Proactive
policy (%) policy (%) Table 2 shows that the local share of RE equipment manufac-
Wind energy 40 60 ture could range from 30% to 95% depending on the technol-
Solar water heaters 70 95 ogy. However, local RE companies must be established with
Photovoltaic systems 20 30 coordination between them to integrate the different compo-
Biomass 50 95 nents into a specific system. Local RE companies will need for-
Concentrated solar power 30 50 eign technical support for the erection of WE and CSP plants
as well as for their operation and maintenance. After a transi-
tion period of 5 years local RE companies should be able to
rely on their developed resources. Tables 3 and 4 show the
Component (5): Information dissemination, awareness and investment required and the time schedule for the respective
capacity building program. action plans. The calculations are based on the very conserva-
tive assumptions that the average share of local manufacturing
The proposed action plan focuses on the removal of technical, is 45% and that the minimum rate of return is 20% of the
economic, financial, institutional, legislative and awareness investment.
barriers and should lead to the implementation of these five The action plans for research and development focus on the
components and eventually the achievement of the planned development of local component designs, new materials for
targets. It should be emphasized here that the success of the ac- components and coatings, system performance/optimization,
tion plan will depend on a proactive approach by the govern- online resource assessment and grid integration, in order to
ment to encourage and create the demand side conditions for target efficient and market-competitive RE systems.
increased penetration of RET. Implementation of the proposed plan will in the high
scenario result in savings in fossil fuel resources of up
to 78 MTOE and a corresponding reduction in CO2 emis-
Potential share for local manufacturers sions of 209 million tons by the year 2022 as illustrated in
Table 5.
Increasing penetration of RESs within the energy sector in
Egypt is essential. For that reason, different stakeholders Renewable energy fund
must join together to develop RETs. The anticipated local
market share for manufacturing different RETs is presented The implementation of RETs will reduce fossil fuel consump-
in Table 2. The estimated share is totally dependent on the tion, reduce harmful emissions and generate hard currency
36 A. Khalil et al.

Table 3 Investment required for local manufacturing and R&D for power generation for different RETs (US$ million) [1].
Scenario WT 2006–2010 2011–2015 2016–2022 Total
High Market volume 2032 3857 5208 11,096
Share of local manufacturing 45% 55% 65%
Investment in manufacturing assets 799 1516 2047 4362
R&D investment 24 45 61 131
Medium Market volume 1547 2233 4061 7840
Share of local manufacturing 45% 65% 75%
Investment in manufacturing assets 608 878 1596 3082
R&D investment 18 26 48 92
Low Market volume 891 1119 1389 3399
Share of local manufacturing 45% 65% 75%
Investment in manufacturing assets 350 440 546 1336
R&D investment 11 13 16 40

CSP
High Market volume 636 2419 6611 9666
Share of local manufacturing 45% 55% 65%
Investment in manufacturing assets 283 1077 2944 4304
R&D investment 10 38 103 151
Medium Market volume 636 1209 4324 6169
Share of local manufacturing 45% 55% 65%
Investment in manufacturing assets 283 539 1925 2747
R&D investment 10 19 67 96
Low Market volume 636 – 2314 2949
Share of local manufacturing 45% 55% 65%
Investment in manufacturing assets 283 – 1030 1313
R&D investment 10 – 36 46

PV
High Market volume – – 2166 2166
Share of local manufacturing 30% 35% 45%
Investment in manufacturing assets – – 1277 1277
R&D investment 8 10 51 69
Medium Market volume – – 1295 1295
Share of local manufacturing 30% 35% 45%
Investment in manufacturing assets – – 764 764
R&D investment 5 6 31 41

SWH
High Market volume 116 116 232 464
Share of local manufacturing 35% 35% 95%
Investment in manufacturing assets 80 20 80 180
R&D investment 4 1 4 9

through the opportunity of exporting the saved fossil fuels.
The anticipated cost savings from the export opportunity are
calculated on the basis of US$ 6.5 million Btu of fuel saved.
A special renewable energy fund that includes the subsidy
saved as a result of energy generation by RETs should be ini-
tiated. This fund can be used to cover the gap between the RE
feed-in tariff and the average price of electricity generated by
thermal power plants. Moreover, the RE fund could finance
R&D for local manufacturing activities in RETs’ systems
and components design. In addition to this fund, the cost sav-
ings resulting from electricity generation by hydropower plants
as compared to thermal power plants, could also finance the
deficit arising from the feed-in tariff and research and develop-
ment for RETs.
Conclusions
The study carried out by ERC has revealed that the five most
prominent types of RET in Egypt (large- and small-scale
solar thermal, photovoltaic, wind and biomass energy) have
different needs for support in terms of R&D, demonstration
and market development. The present study reviews the
current available RE resources, positions different RETs,
Road map for renewable energy research and development in Egypt 37

Table 4 Action plan for RETs implementation [1].

Table 5 Expected savings in fossil fuel resources and emission reduction due to the implementation of the action plan for local
manufacturing of RET systems and components [1].
Technology of Anticipated savings Anticipated cost savings Anticipated avoided subsidy Generated energy via
power (million US$) (million US$) RET (million kWh)
generation
TOE CO2 (million Opportunity cost Certified emission Business Fuel prices liberation
(million) tons) for export reduction as usual to close the gap
High scenario
Wind 67 179 17,299 1789 13,311 5292 293,608
CSP 10 27 2656 275 2043 751 45,070
PV 1 3 258 27 199 62 4380
Total 78 209 20,213 2090 15,553 6105 343,059

Medium scenario
Wind 46 122 11,830 1223 9103 3648 200,776
CSP 7 17 1680 174 1293 485 28,514
PV 0.6 1.5 142 15 109 34 2,409
Total 53 141 13,652 1412 10,505 4167 231,699

Low scenario
Wind 22 59 5728 592 4408 1840 97,222
CSP 4 10 975 101 751 283 16,556
PV – – – – – – –
Total 26 69 6704 693 5158 2123 113,778

and identifies barriers and evaluates current and future needs
for local manufacturing of RESs. The study also addresses
the issue of how to support the setup of competitive market
strategies for RETs. For this purpose it builds and analyses
a set of likely scenarios, and proposes a practical development
strategy and a detailed action plan for achieving it.
Electricity and Energy, Federation of Egyptian Industries –
Dr. Hani Nokraschy, Mr. Wolfgang Mostert, Dr. Khaled
Elfarra, Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics,
General Organization For Industrialization.
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