Applied Geography 39 (2013) 16e25

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Applied Geography
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/apgeog

Impact of the 2010e2011 La Niña phenomenon in Colombia, South

America: The human toll of an extreme weather event
N. Hoyos a, b, *, J. Escobar a, c, J.C. Restrepo d, A.M. Arango e, J.C. Ortiz d
a
Center for Tropical Paleoecology and Archaeology, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI), Panama
b
Corporación Geológica ARES, Calle 44A No. 53-96, Bogotá, Colombia
c
Universidad del Norte, Km 5 vía Puerto Colombia, Departamento de Ingeniería Civil y Ambiental, Barranquilla, Colombia
d
Grupo de Física Aplicada, Área de Océano y Atmósfera, Departamento de Física, Universidad del Norte, Km 5 vía Puerto Colombia, Barranquilla, Colombia
e
iMMAP, Bogota, Colombia

a b s t r a c t
Keywords: The 2010e2011 La Niña (positive phase of El Niño) phenomenon affected four million Colombians, w9%
ENSO of the total population, and caused economic losses of approximately US $7.8 billion, related to
Extreme weather events
destruction of infrastructure, flooding of agricultural lands and payment of government subsidies. We
Spatial autocorrelation
Spatial error
analyzed the spatial patterns of effects on the population, measured as the number of affected persons in
Natural hazard each municipality normalized to the total municipal population for 2011, using global (Moran’s I index)
Vulnerability and local (LISA) spatial autocorrelation indicators, and multiple regression analyses (OLS and ML spatial
error model). The spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed two regional clusters or “hotspots” with high
autocorrelation values, in the lower Magdalena River Valley (Caribbean plains) and lower Atrato Valley
(Pacific lowlands). The regression analyses emphasized the importance of the spatial component as well
as the variables related to hazard exposure and social vulnerability. Municipalities in “hotspots” show:
(1) a high degree of flooding, as they are located on the Magdalena and Atrato River floodplains, and (2)
high social vulnerability, suggested by low values of the ICV (national living conditions index).
Ó 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Introduction injury and displacement (Parmesan & Martens, 2008; Parmesan,

Climate patterns have changed throughout Earth’s history. Since
the late 1800s, these changes have been largely caused by
increasing amounts of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere. The average temperature of the planet has increased
0.74
C over the last century, and most of this increase has occurred
in the last three decades (Arguez, 2007; IPCC, 2007). It is estimated
that increases in the concentration of greenhouse gases will cause
additional warming of 1.1e6.4
C by the end of this century (IPCC,
2007). The increase in global average temperatures is expected to
cause increases in extreme weather events, which will, in turn,
have effects on ecosystems and society. Such events drive greater
changes in natural and social systems than do average climate
conditions as a consequence of damage to infrastructure and agri-
cultural lands, diminished ecosystem function, and human death,
* Corresponding author. Corporación Geológica ARES, Calle 44A No. 53-96,
Bogotá, Colombia. Tel.: þ57 3105149269.
E-mail address: natahoyos2011@gmail.com (N. Hoyos).
Root, & Willig, 2000). Climate change, particularly extreme
weather events, poses risks and challenges for society. Most
research, however, has addressed the climate component of climate
change, whereas its impact on human well-being remains poorly
understood (NRC, 2009). In social terms, effects of extreme events
are evaluated by analyzing the vulnerability of exposed commu-
nities. Impacts on socioeconomic systems are often amplified by
factors such as social inequality, disease and social conflict.
Understanding vulnerability and how it relates to climate change,
particularly extreme weather events, is an initial step in managing
climate change risks. Geographically explicit vulnerability analysis
is critical to understand how interactions between the physical
environment and humans change over space and time (Emrich &
Cutter, 2011; Montz & Tobin, 2011; Moser, 2010).
Colombia experienced a strong El Niño Southern Oscillation
(ENSO) cold phase known as La Niña, from 2010 to 2011. The
weather event affected approximately four million people as of
September 2011 and caused losses of more than US $7.8 billion, as
a consequence of destruction of infrastructure, flooding of agri-
cultural lands and payment of government subsidies (Redacción,

0143-6228/$ e see front matter Ó 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2012.11.018
 N. Hoyos et al. / Applied Geography 39 (2013) 16e25
2010a, 2011a). A wealth of data was generated by government
agencies and non-governmental organizations on the effects of this
phenomenon. Furthermore, such information was used to develop
mitigation plans. Participating institutions included the National
Office for Disaster Risk Management (Unidad Nacional para la
Gestión del Riesgo de Desastres e UNGRD), National Department of
Statistics (Departamento Nacional de Estadística e DANE), National
Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies
(Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales e
IDEAM), the National Geographic Institute (Instituto Geográfico
Agustín Codazzi e IGAC) and non-governmental entities such as
iMMAP and the United Nation’s Office for the Coordination of
Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). Although these institutions pre-
sented their data in a spatial format (i.e. maps), rigorous
geographical analysis was not done, largely because of time
constraints. In this study, we assessed the spatial patterns of ENSO
effects on the human population in Colombia, and explored the
relationship between such patterns and physical geographic and
socioeconomic variables. We first summarize the effect of ENSO on
Colombian river flow dynamics and follow with a spatial analysis of
the 2010e2011 La Niña event. We conclude with a discussion of our
findings.
Climate and river discharge during ENSO
In Colombia, the annual hydrologic cycle is controlled by oscil-
lation of the inter-tropical convergence zone, superimposed on
regional patterns caused by orographic influence of the Andes,
evapotranspiration in the Amazon Basin, continent-atmosphere
interactions and dynamics of the western Colombian wind
currents (Western Colombian Jet e Chocó Jet) (Mesa, Poveda, &
Carvajal, 1997; Poveda, Jaramillo, Gil, Quiceno, & Mantilla, 2001;
Poveda & Mesa, 2004) (Fig. 1). Over longer time scales, major
hydrologic anomalies are experienced during both phases of ENSO
(Aceituno, 1988; Poveda, 2004; Poveda et al., 2001) and other
macro-climatic phenomena such as the North Atlantic Oscillation
(NAO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (Mesa, Poveda,
&Carvajal, 1997; Poveda et al., 2002).
The ENSO warm phase (El Niño) causes droughts in the western
margin of Central America, Mexico, the Amazon Basin, northern
South America (i.e. Colombia and northeastern Brazil), whereas it
produces excess precipitation in the eastern region of Central
America, and increased summer rainfall in the Paraná Basin and the
Andes of Peru, Bolivia and Chile (Capel, 1999). In Colombia, ENSO
has a strong effect on precipitation, river discharge and soil mois-
ture (Montealegre & Pabón, 1992; Poveda & Mesa, 1996; Poveda
et al., 2001, 2002; Puertas & Carvajal, 2008; Restrepo & Kjerfve,
2004). The warm phase is associated with an increase in the
average air temperature, a decrease in soil moisture and evapo-
transpiration, a decrease in rainfall and a consequent decrease in
the average flow of the rivers in the western, central and northern
regions of the country (Poveda et al., 2001). The opposite pattern is
observed during the cold phase (La Niña), which is mainly char-
acterized by intense and abundant rainfall, increased river flow and
subsequent flooding (Poveda & Mesa, 1996; Mesa et al., 1997;
Poveda et al., 2001). ENSO events, however, differ in intensity and
spatial extent, so their effects on hydro-climatology are event-
specific (Poveda, 2004).
A common variable used to assess the strength of a particular
ENSO event is the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). It is calculated
as the normalized difference in surface air pressure between Dar-
win, Australia (Western Pacific) and Tahiti, French Polynesia
(Eastern Pacific). A positive index points to low pressures in the
western tropical Pacific and indicates the occurrence of the cold
phase (La Niña). A negative index signals the presence of the warm
17
phase (El Niño). According to this index, there were at least 19 El
Niño and 17 La Niña events between 1950 and 2011 (NOAA, 2011).
Because of their intensity and duration, the warm events in 1957e
1958 (8 months), 1965e1966 (12 months), 1972e1973 (10 months),
1976e1978 (18 months), 1982e1983 (14 months), 1986e1987 (16
months), 1991e1992 (17 months), 1997e1998 (12 months) and
2009e2010 (11 months) are notable. Strong cold events took place
in 1954e1957 (20 months), 1970e1971 (14 months), 1973e1974 (13
months), 1975e1976 (12 months), 1988e1989 (14 months), 1998e
2000 (24 months), 2007e2008 (10 months) and 2010e2011 (10
months) (Fig. 2). Climatic, hydrological and oceanographic distur-
bances related to these events had dramatic global socioeconomic
and environmental repercussions (Capel, 1999).
In Colombia, the 1982e1983 ENSO stimulated scientific and
academic interest because of its environmental impacts, particu-
larly in the marine sector (Alvarado, Duque, Flórez, & Ramírez,
1986). Interest only became widespread after the 1991e1992
event, which caused a large decrease in precipitation and Andean
river streamflows, and led to a collapse of the national hydropower
system (Mesa et al., 1997; Montealegre & Pabón, 1992). The rela-
tionship between ENSO and river flow in Colombia was studied by
Mesa et al. (1997) and Restrepo & Kjerfve (2000). They showed that
ENSO has an earlier and stronger effect on rivers in western,
northern and central Colombia, in contrast to a later and reduced
effect on rivers in the eastern and southeastern regions of the
country. For instance, ENSO explains up to 64% of the inter-annual
variability in discharge of the Magdalena River, the main river
draining the Colombian Andes (Restrepo & Kjerfve, 2000). Abrupt
changes in river discharge have occurred during the past 12 years,
and all were related with ENSO cold conditions (Fig. 3a). Wavelet
analysis, however, reveals that the contribution of ENSO to flow
variability has not been constant over time (Fig. 3b). Caribbean river
discharge also reflects the effect of ENSO (Fig. 4). Nevertheless, it is
difficult to separate the influence of climate variability from that of
anthropogenic disturbance (Restrepo & Restrepo, 2005).
The 2010e2011 ENSO cold event was one of the most intense, in
both duration and magnitude (Fig. 2). In 2010, there was a rapid
transition between the warm and cold phases of ENSO. Completion
of the 2009e2010 warm event was marked by negative SOI
anomalies during the first quarter of 2010. Beginning in July, the
positive anomalies were consolidated, which initiated the cold
event and lasted for 18 months, until December 2011. During that
period, the anomalies ranged from 1.9 to 5.2. The only comparable
anomalies were observed in the cold events of 1970e1971, 1975e
1976 and 2007e2008.
Methods
For our spatial analysis, we used the number of individuals in
each municipality reported as affected by the UNGRD, as of
September 2011. We normalized by the total municipal population
in 2011, estimated by extrapolation from the 2005 National Census
by the National Department of Statistics (DANE). A value of 1 means
that all (100%) of the municipality’s inhabitants were affected,
whereas a value of 0.5 means that 50% were affected, and so on. By
government standards, the term “affected” included (1) individuals
who were deceased, missing, or suffered direct material loss and/or
injury, and (2) individuals who suffered indirect or secondary
impacts, such as not being able to work.
We compiled disaster-related data, as well as socioeconomic,
hydrological, geomorphological and administrative data from
various sources (Table 1). Editing and analysis was conducted using
ArcGIS (ESRI), Geoda (Anselin, 2005) and NCSS (Hintze, 2007).
Spatial autocorrelation analysis was accomplished using global
(Moran’s I) and local (LISA) indicators (Moran, 1948; Anselin, 1995).
18 N. Hoyos et al. / Applied Geography 39 (2013) 16e25

Fig. 1. Major physiograhic regions and rivers of Colombia, and relevant cities mentioned in the text. (1) Magdalena River, (2) Cauca River, (3) Sinú River, (4) Atrato River, (5)
Putumayo River, (6) Western Cordillera, (7) Central Cordillera, (8) Eastern Cordillera, (9) Eastern plains or Llanos, (10) Amazon region. Elevation data from shuttle radar topography
mission (USGS 2006). Basemap data from the national geographic database (sigotn.igac.gov.co).

Fig. 2. Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) anomalies for the 1951e2010 period. The thin line represents the raw data (NOAA, 2011), the thick line represents data smoothed by
a low-pass filter. Light boxes represent El Niño events,dark boxes represent La Niña events.
 N. Hoyos et al. / Applied Geography 39 (2013) 16e25 19

Fig. 3. Average discharge for the Magdalena River. (a) Standardized monthly discharge and southern oscillation index (SOI) with El Niño events shown in light boxes and La Niña
events in dark boxes, and (b) Morletwavelet spectrum and scale average variance of 2e8 year band (1941e2010).

Once the statistical significance of the spatial patterns was estab-
lished, we performed a regression analysis, using the normalized
number of affected individuals as the dependent variable, and
relevant socioeconomic and environmental factors as explanatory
variables. For the latter, we used variables that (1) were publicly
available, (2) could be aggregated at the municipal level and (3) had
been measured, whenever possible, close to the time of our period
of interest (2010e2011). Socioeconomic variables included: (1)
population density, measured as the estimated population in 2011
divided by the municipality area, (2) the 2005 living conditions
index (ICV), which is a measure of the possession of physical goods
(access to public services and housing characteristics), human
capital (average years of education of household heads and children
more than 12 years old, and school attendance) and household
composition (overcrowding and number of children less than 6
years old) (DNP, 1999), (3) the 2005 water supply and sewer
coverage, and (4) the 2010 municipal performance index, which is
a measure of local compliance with development goals, adminis-
trative capacity and fiscal performance (DNP, 2010). The following
physical environmental variables were considered: (1) percent of
the total municipal area subject to flooding i.e. floodplains, low
alluvial terraces, eolian lowlands subject to seasonal flooding,
overflow swamp lowlands, deltas and coastal areas (Flórez et al.,
2010), (2) annual maximum peak discharge for 2, 5, 10, 20, 50
and 100 year return periods (each municipality was assigned the
maximum value within its area of jurisdiction), and (3) the average
monthly precipitation for the months of June, July and August
(rainy season in the eastern Llanos and Amazon) and October and
November (rainy season in the Andean and Caribbean regions).
Each municipality was assigned the average value within its area of
jurisdiction.
We used two regression analysis techniques to assess the
importance of the spatial component, a multiple linear regression
model with coefficients estimated by the method of ordinary least
squares (OLS) and a spatial autoregressive model with spatial error
dependence, which estimates the coefficients by the maximum
likelihood method (ML). The first model assumes spatially inde-
pendent observations, whereas the latter includes a spatial
component because it assumes that model errors are spatially
correlated. The original data were modified as follows. We assigned
a value of 1.0 to municipalities with anomalous values (>1.0) of the
dependent variable (normalized number of affected individuals).
Values >1.0 imply that affected individuals outnumber the total
population for a municipality. We therefore re-scaled those values
to the maximum possible, i.e. the total population affected. With
respect to the independent variables, municipalities with missing
data and “island” municipalities, i.e. those without neighbors,
were eliminated. After these modifications, we had 1,090 munici-
palities that were included in the regression analyses. Finally, the
statistical distribution of each variable was assessed and, if
necessary, transformations were performed to obtain a normal
distribution.
20 N. Hoyos et al. / Applied Geography 39 (2013) 16e25

Fig. 4. Discharge patterns for eight rivers in the Colombian Caribbean region (Restrepo et al., in preparation). Mean annual discharge represented by the solid line, long-term trend
in dashed line, shaded area indicates change as identified by the Pettit test. Z is the standardized variable of ManneKendall test for significant long-term trends (significant trends at
90% confidence level when Z > Z(1  a/2) ¼ 1.77).

For the regression analyses, we followed the methods of Anselin
(2005) and Hinze (2007). Briefly, we used techniques to identify
variables with significant predictive power. Then we performed
OLS regression with the selected variables and looked for spatial
dependence of errors. Finally, we calculated the most appropriate
spatial autoregressive model according to the indices of spatial
dependence.
Results
Regional “hotspots” for affected individuals (raw and normal-
ized values) include municipalities on the Pacific and Caribbean
coasts, in the lower Magdalena Valley and a few in the Andes
(Fig. 5). Thirty-seven municipalities had anomalous normalized
values, >1.0. The most extreme cases were observed in some
municipalities from the Pacific and Caribbean states, where the
number of affected individuals was nearly twice the total pop-
ulation. We believe this was a consequence of inaccurate
population projections from the 2005 Census, or incorrect regis-
tration of individuals affected by flooding, with many individuals
registered multiple times. The normalized map fails to show some
municipalities where a large number of individuals were affected,
but they represent only a small percentage of the total municipal-
ity’s population. This phenomenon was particularly noticeable in
state capitals (e.g. Riohacha, Montería, Valledupar, Cúcuta, Medel-
lín, Cali and Florence), as well as the national capital, Bogotá.
Global and local spatial autocorrelation indices were significant.
For example, Moran’s I index for global spatial autocorrelation
(0.42, a ¼ 0.05, n ¼ 1123, Rook contiguity matrix type) indicates
significant positive spatial autocorrelation. Similarly, local indica-
tors of spatial association (LISA) point to the existence of two
regional “hotspots” in the lower Magdalena River Valley (61
municipalities, 5.43% of total) and the Atrato River Valley (13
municipalities, 1.16% of the total) (Fig. 6). Other smaller “hotpspots”
were observed along the southern Pacific coast (11 municipalities,
0.98% of the total) and on the northern Eastern Cordillera, close to
 N. Hoyos et al. / Applied Geography 39 (2013) 16e25 21

Table 1
Relevant characteristics of spatial data.

Group Name Source Temporal resolution Spatial resolution

Basemap data Municipalities IGACa 2009 Municipal
Population DANEb 2011 (projected) Municipal
Disaster data Individuals affected UNGRDc April 2010eSeptember 2011 Municipal
Explanatory variables Municipal area (% of total) Flórez et al., 2010 NA 1:500,000
subject to flooding
Annual maximum discharge HidroSIGd >25 years 12000 (w3.7 km)
(m3 s1) (return periods of 2,
5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years)
Average monthly rainfall for HidroSIGd >25 years 30000 (w9.3 km)
June, July, August, October
and November (mm)
Population density DANEb 2011 Municipal
(individuals km2)
Index of living conditions DNPf 2005 Municipal
ICVe (%)
Municipal Performancee (%) DNP f
2010 Municipal
Aqueduct coverage (%) DANEb 2005 Municipal
Sewer coverage (%) DANEb 2005 Municipal
a
National geographic institute.
b
National department of statistics.
c
National office for disaster risk management.
d
School of Geosciences and Environment, National University of Colombia, Medellin , v. 3.1 Beta.
e
See text for details.
f
National planning department.

the Venezuelan border (6 municipalities, 0.53% of the total). Clus-
ters of low values are located on the Eastern plains (Orinoquía),
Amazon and southern Eastern Cordillera eastern foothills (45
municipalities, 5.34% of the total). Less extensive, low-value clus-
ters are apparent in the central Eastern Cordillera (35 municipali-
ties, 3.12% of the total), and northern Central Cordillera (78
municipalities, 6.95% of the total).
We selected the regression model that had both good predictive
power and the smallest possible number of independent variables.
Table 2 shows the relevant characteristics of the selected model,
a spatial autoregressive model with spatial error dependence, in
comparison with an equivalent multiple linear regression model.
Socioeconomic variables (living conditions index) as well as envi-
ronmental physical variables (percent of the municipality subject to
flooding and average June precipitation) were selected as signifi-
cant explanatory variables (p < 0.01). Some other variables
exhibited high correlation with the selected variables and were
discarded because of multi-collinearity. For example, potable water

Fig. 5. (a) Raw number of individuals affected by the 2010e2011 La Niña, and (b) normalized number of individuals affected by the 2010e2011 La Niña (raw number divided by total
2011 population). Municipalities with anomalous values are shown with a thick black outline. All data are aggregated at the municipal level.
22 N. Hoyos et al. / Applied Geography 39 (2013) 16e25

spatial error model because it had: (1) better performance indica-

tors (log-likelihood, Akaike and Schwarz criteria), (2) a highly
significant spatial autoregressive coefficient (l), and (3) residuals
that were not spatially autocorrelated.

Discussion

This study was framed within the context of vulnerability and

natural hazards research. As these terms are widely used, we follow
the definitions of Cutter & Finch (2008) and UNISDR (2009). Natural
hazard refers to a “natural process or phenomenon that may cause
loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of
livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption, or envi-
ronmental damage” (UNISDR, 2009). On the other hand, vulnera-
bility is broadly defined as the potential for loss and is a function of
exposure, sensitivity and resilience (Cutter & Finch, 2008; Wood,
Burton, & Cutter, 2010). Exposure refers to the frequency, severity
and extent of a specific hazard (Emrich & Cutter 2011). Sensitivity
(or social vulnerability) refers to the ability of a community to
protect itself from future events and depends on the social,
economic and demographic characteristics that make it susceptible
to loss (Cutter, Boruff, & Shirley, 2003; Emrich & Cutter, 2011). The
resilience of a community is defined as its ability to resist, absorb,
adapt and recover during and after an event (Cutter & Finch, 2008;
UNISDR, 2009; Wood et al., 2010). The 2010e2011 La Niña was
a multi-hazard event, as it was associated with the occurrence of
floods, landslides, windstorms, lightning and landslides. Floods and
landslides were by far the most common and damaging
phenomena. For instance, for the SeptembereDecember of 2011
rainy season, a total of 1,107 weather-related events were reported
by UNGRD, of which 684 (62%) were floods and 321 (29%) were
landslides. In the same period, 182 individuals were reported dead
as a result of landslides (172 or 95%) and floods (10) (UNGRD, 2011).
Fig. 6. Clusters of positive spatial autocorrelation for the normalized number of In terms of vulnerability, the variables included in our model
affected individuals. High values are shown in red (dark gray), whereas low values are represent exposure, sensitivity and resilience. For example, the
shown in blue (intermediate gray). Areas with negative spatial autocorrelation are percent of municipal land subject to flooding is an indication of the
shown in light gray. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend,
degree of exposure (Fig. 7). The spatial error model indicates, as
the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
would be expected, a positive relationship between the area subject
to flooding and normalized number of affected individuals. The
and sewer coverage, as well as population density, showed extent of flooding for the 2010e2011 La Niña can be assessed from
a significant positive correlation with the index of living conditions. official reports comparing the extent of seasonal floods during
Although both models (classical and spatial) were similar in terms “regular” conditions, with those during the 2010e2011 La Niña, for
of selected variables and regression coefficients, we selected the the most critical regions, i.e. the Caribbean, Pacific and eastern
Andean foothills (Instituto Geográfico Agustín Codazzi IGAC,
Table 2 Instituto de hidrología, meteorología y estudios ambientales
Relevant characteristics of selected regression models (n ¼ 1,090). Variables IDEAM, & Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística
significant at p < 0.01. DANE, 2011). Numbers show that during the rainy seasons of
Variable/mode1 Multiple linear Spatial error model 2010e2011, the flooded areas in those regions nearly doubled
regression (OLS) (MLE) relative to the baseline year (2001). Specifically, it is estimated that
Coefficient t-value Coefficient z-value
seasonal flooding affects 1,212,965 ha in the eastern Andean foot-
hills, Caribbean lowlands, lower Magdalena Valley, and lower Sinú
Living conditions 0.010599 16.18605 0.009156 12.60932
index and Atrato River Basins. In comparison, during the 2010e2011 La
% municipal land 0.299605 11.4672 0.239139 6.89489 Niña, 1,642,108 ha of additional land were flooded, primarily in the
subject lower Magdalena River Basin and the lower Sinú River Basin (IGAC
to flooding (x0.5) et al., 2011).
Average June 0.179308 6.06699 0.124084 2.64768
rainfall (log)
We propose, however, that the living conditions index (ICV)
la N/A 0.566601 16.71821 represents, at least partially, the concepts of sensitivity and resil-
Adjusted R2 0.272 N/A ience (Fig. 7). Because of its multidimensional nature, this index
Pseudo R2 N/A 0.448 provided a better representation of social vulnerability than inde-
Log likelihood 86.216 198.781
pendent variables such as water supply and sewers, which were
Akaike criterion 164.432 389.563
Schwarz criterion 144.456 369.59 also redundant according to multicollinearity indicators. Regional
Residuals spatial 0.32 0.02 studies on social vulnerability indicate that its spatial and temporal
autocorrelation variability are related to variables that measure socioeconomic
(Moran I index) status, age, commercial, industrial and housing developments,
a
Spatial autoregressive coefficient. rurality, race, gender and employment (Cutter & Finch, 2008;
 N. Hoyos et al. / Applied Geography 39 (2013) 16e25
Fig. 7. (a) Spatial distribution of life conditions index (ICV) at the municipal level (2005), and (b) Spatial distribution of areas subject to flooding as percentage of total municipal
area (flood-prone areas from Flórez et al., 2010). Municipalities with hatch pattern were not included in the regression analysis as they had missing data or were island polygons.
Emrich & Cutter, 2011; Lazarus, 2011). The relationship is not
straightforward and should be interpreted within the broader
context of social and economic policies (Lazarus, 2011). For
instance, studies in the United States indicate that increased social
vulnerability is driven by poverty, ethnicity, rurality and gender
(Cutter & Finch, 2008; Emrich & Cutter, 2011). By comparison,
research from Sri Lanka shows that relations between gender,
ethnicity and vulnerability (measured as coping capacity) are
place-dependent (Lazarus, 2011). In our case, higher vulnerability,
as indicated by ICV scores, is associated with restricted access to
public services, limited education, poor home construction mate-
rials, and overcrowding. Because the ICV score is a compound
index, it is not possible to assess the relative importance of each
factor. Geographically, low ICV scores are found mostly in rural,
sparsely populated areas in the Caribbean lowlands, Pacific coast,
Llanos and Amazon (Fig. 7). Furthermore, resilience to natural
disasters is also multidimensional and integrates ecological, social,
economic, institutional and infrastructure variables (Cutter & Finch,
2008). Recent studies and policies on disaster-risk reduction
emphasize the importance of resilience as a tool to reduce the
vulnerability of communities exposed to natural hazards (UNISDR,
2010). In our study, the spatial regression model shows a negative
relationship between ICV and the normalized number of affected
individuals. This result is in agreement with the above findings
from other studies.
Regarding the precipitation variable included in our model
(average June rainfall), we believe it represents the contrasting
regimes of the Andean/Caribbean and Llanos/Amazon regions.
Under normal conditions, the Andean and Caribbean regions are
predominantly dry in June, whereas wet conditions prevail over the
Llanos and Amazon regions. The spatial autocorrelation analysis
shows that most municipalities in the Llanos and Amazon were
affected little by the 2010e2011 La Niña. We believe this pattern
23
was a consequence of: (1) lower population density and (2) reduced
discharge response to La Niña, as it is both delayed and of smaller
magnitude than in the Andean and Caribbean regions (Poveda et al.,
2001). Although it seems counterintuitive, it is for this reason that
the precipitation variable has a negative relationship with the
normalized number of affected individuals.
It is useful to analyze specific cases where our model grossly
underestimates the number of affected people. For this analysis,
we focused on municipalities with residuals that were >2 stan-
dard deviations (þ2 std dev) from the regression line (Fig. 8).
There were 43 municipalities (3.9% of the total) for which the
model underestimated the true number of affected individuals.
Poor prediction in these municipalities was related to several
factors. The first factor is flooding by small rivers, which was not
considered in our scale of analysis. This was the case for some
municipalities in the Pacific region and Eastern Cordillera (Bagadó,
2011; OCHA, 2010; Redacción, 2010b, 2011b, 2011c). The second
factor is the occurrence of hazards other than flooding, such as
landslides, storms, and mud and debris flows, which were not
included in our model. Examples include municipalities in the
northern Eastern Cordillera, and central Western Cordillera
(Redacción, 2010c, 2010d). The third factor is related to munici-
palities that, despite having considerable areas that are flood-
prone, had low percent values for this variable because the total
municipal area was very large. This situation was observed in
southern Colombia, along the Putumayo River (Redacción, 2010e;
Salamanca, 2011). Finally, there were several municipalities where
the model performed poorly even though they had a large fraction
of their area (>30%) in the flood-prone lowlands of the Magdalena,
Cauca and Sinú Rivers. (Alzate, 2010; Redacción, 2010f, 2010g,
2011d). These cases require further investigation to understand
what specific factors in each municipality accounted for the high
number of affected individuals.
24 N. Hoyos et al. / Applied Geography 39 (2013) 16e25
Fig. 8. Municipalities where the normalized number of affected individuals was
grossly underpredicted (residuals > 2.0 std dev). Light shaded polygons represent
flood-prone areas from Flórez et al. (2010). Elevation data from shuttle radar topog-
raphy mission (USGS 2006).
Conclusions
Our analysis showed that Colombians affected by the 2010e
2011 La Niña were clustered in two regional “hotspots,” in the
lower Magdalena River Valley and Pacific regions. Areas where
people were less affected (“coldspots”) were concentrated in the
Llanos and Amazon region. Our regression model emphasizes the
importance of the spatial component. Conceptually, this means
that values at one municipality are related to values at neighboring
municipalities. The model also emphasizes the role of variables
traditionally used to assess natural hazards, such as hazard
exposure and social vulnerability. The high numbers of people
affected in municipalities of the lower Magdalena and Atrato River
Basins point to the importance of both high hazard exposure and
high social vulnerability. In these municipalities, social vulnera-
bility was amplified by internal armed conflict (Colombia SSH,
2011).
The scale of our analysis precluded modeling predominantly
local threats such as mud or debris flows, windstorms and flooding
by smaller, local streams. In addition, although publicly accessible
data proved useful, we caution that the most complete, available
socioeconomic data came from the 2005 National Census. There-
fore, there was a 6e7 year gap between the collection of demo-
graphic data and occurrence of the 2010e2011 La Niña. Finally,
considering that floods were the predominant hazard and had the
greatest impact, we believe it is necessary to address integrated
flood-risk management (Schelfault et al., 2011). This perspective
emphasizes the reduction of vulnerability by strengthening the
resilience of at-risk communities. It is predicated on the belief that
floods cannot be controlled by structural measures alone (Dixon
et al., 2006), and that social vulnerability plays a critical role in
community recovery (Finch, Emrich, & Cutter, 2010). Our study
indicates that future strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate
events such as the 2010e2011 La Niña should include compre-
hensive measures to reduce the social vulnerability of communities
and thereby increase their resilience. As such, the importance of
updating socioeconomic data related to social vulnerability is
underscored.
Acknowledgments
We thank Dr. Mark Brenner for proof reading the article and
the comments provided by the editor and two anonymous
reviewers.
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