Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Rand - CP22 2008 12
Rand - CP22 2008 12
A Better
DeAl
twelve SuggeStionS
for the
new u.S. PreSiDent
Military Interventions • Counterterrorism •
Afghanistan • Pakistan • Iraq •
Iran • Turkey • Proliferation • Economy •
Energy • Education • Health
Asian Exchange: China and India Trade Lessons in Education and Health
—By Charles A. Goldman, Krishna B. Kumar, Ying Liu, Sai Ma, and Neeraj Sood
Get the Big Picture
Editorial Board
Timothy Bonds, Cynthia Cook, Jeffrey
Hiday, James Hosek, James Kahan,
Iao Katagiri, Lindsey Kozberg, Kevin
McCarthy, Elizabeth McGlynn, K. Jack
Riley, Charlene Rohr, Shirley Ruhe,
Mary Vaiana, Martin Wachs
www.rand.org/publications/randreview
U.S.
Treasury Secretary Henry Fall 2008 Vol. 32, No. 3
Paulson voiced the anxiety of
the age when he announced 4 Letter
a $700-billion U-turn on November 12, abandon Embassy Row
ing a plan to purchase mortgage-backed securi
ties from troubled banks and committing instead 5 News
to use the congressionally approved bailout • Responsive monopoly
money to inject capital directly into the banks by • Environmentalist army
acquiring equity stakes in them. The stock mar • Unsafe democracy
ket fell 411 points, or about 5 percent, that day.
“I will not issue an apology for changing the 8 RAND Then and Now
From Microdata to Megatrends
strategy when the facts change,” Paulson defended
The Continuing Legacy of the RAND Health Insurance
his decision. “We had to move quickly.”
Experiment
His shift in tack raised more questions than
answers. But Paulson had concluded that the
original bailout plan would not work. Some
thing different had to be done. And fast. He
10 Asian Exchange
China and India Trade Lessons in Education and Health
By Charles A. Goldman, Krishna B. Kumar, Ying Liu, Sai Ma,
did not have the luxury to conduct a thorough and Neeraj Sood
analysis of competing alternatives. He had to
choose what he believed, if only in theory, to be
a better use of resources.
The RAND experts who, in our cover story,
14 COVER STORY
A Better Deal: Twelve Suggestions for
present their suggestions to the new U.S. presi
the New U.S. President
—By James A. Thomson
dent find themselves in an analogous position.
They would be the first to acknowledge that Military Interventions: Shift the Balance to
their recommendations have not been subjected Civilian Activities—By Robert E. Hunter
to rigorous cost-benefit analyses. But they see Counterterrorism: Wage a Sustainable Campaign
current policies as being far from optimal. In —By Brian Michael Jenkins
many cases, something new must be attempted
Afghanistan: Finish the Job—By Seth G. Jones
without delay to make better use of the vast
amounts of money being spent. Pakistan: Put Institutions First—By C. Christine Fair
The RAND experts call for strategic shifts Iraq: Offer a New Vision—By Nora Bensahel, Edward
that they believe, if only in theory, will offer O’Connell, and David E. Thaler
America a better deal. They cannot assert what
Iran: Build a Constructive Relationship—By Keith
is the single most cost-effective way forward.
Crane, James Dobbins, and Clifford Grammich
But a sense of urgency propels them. If they
could speak in one voice, they might echo Secre Turkey: Strike a Balance—By Angel Rabasa and
tary Paulson: “We have to move quickly!” F. Stephen Larrabee
Proliferation: Prevent Nuclear Use, Deter Terrorist
—John Godges Acquisition—By David Ochmanek
Economy: Keep America Innovative—By Titus Galama
and James Hosek
Energy: Pursue a Range of Solutions—By Michael Toman
Education: Standardize the Goal, Customize the
Strategy—By Brian M. Stecher and Laura S. Hamilton
On the Cover
Supporters at Grant Park in Chicago cheer as they learn that Health: Use COMPARE for Better Policymaking
Barack Obama has been elected president of the United
States on November 4, 2008.
—By Elizabeth A. McGlynn and Jeff rey Wasserman
AP IMAGES/PABLO MARTINEZ MONSIVAIS
W W W . R A N D . O R G R A N D R E V I E W / F A L L 2 0 0 8 3
Letter
Embassy Row
Jerrold Green’s article in the Summer 2008 issue [“The I imagine Mauritania in northwest Africa would be
Future of Diplomacy: Real Time or Real Estate?”] one of the first candidates for “distance diplomacy.” That
reveals an ignorance of the role of diplomatic missions. country has had attacks from Islamic terrorists infiltrat-
U.S. diplomats do not stay confined to their offices ing from Algeria. We have had several hundred Special
all day long. They are out in meetings with the people Forces troops in that country training the local military in
they need to know in order to counterterrorism operations. There has to be an embassy
analyze trends and influence host in a country to coordinate that type of activity. If we
country policies. have nobody on site, we leave the field to others who have
Shuttling in “laptop” diplo- embassies in every country, especially China and Russia.
mats from home offices accom- What kind of idea is it to examine visa applicants
plishes nothing. In my diplomatic through SKYPE or similar [video link] devices? The
career in Africa, I spent more time local U.S. diplomat examines in the local language and
than I liked briefing the visiting understands who should be allowed in or not. Most of
roving diplomats from Australia, the work is in determining if an applicant is likely to
Sweden, and other countries that burrow into the United States and not go back. Will
did not have local embassies. They some examiner sitting in Milwaukee at his computer
had absolutely no relationships of screen be able to make a judgment about that?
any use in their foreign policies.
All they could do was summarize Herman J. “Hank” Cohen
what they learned from resident Former Assistant Secretary of State for Africa
diplomats. Washington, DC
I nowhere said that we should close or eliminate As to processing visas from the United States, I
embassies. What I did say is that we should endeavor remain skeptical that it is best to send a diplomat, his
to make them smaller, less vulnerable, less expensive, or her family, and their personal effects halfway around
and more efficient. the world for this purpose when the same person could
I doubt that our embassy in Nouakchott, to use do the job from the United States at a fraction of the
Hank Cohen’s example, suffers from bloat, and thus it cost with little loss in efficiency. And at the end of three
would not be a good candidate for being downsized. years we would not have to rotate this person home or
The same cannot be said for other embassies in other send him or her to some other far-flung locale while
parts of the world. bearing the substantial relocation costs yet again.
4 R A N D R e v i e w / F a l l 2 0 0 8 w w w . rand . o r g
News
If the current U.S. Postal Service leaking substance, triggered radio and police mail-related crimes,”
(USPS) monopoly on access to logical alerts, or met some other Davis noted. A relaxation would
mailboxes is relaxed, it could have warning criteria. limit federal jurisdiction over deliv
a moderate negative effect on pub The couriers screened the eries by couriers and could raise
lic safety and mail security, accord items but detected none of them as the cost and complexity of postal-
ing to a RAND study. suspicious. In contrast, the USPS inspection-service investigations.
“Allowing private companies screening and detection system While there are no specific
to compete with the postal ser identified 87 percent of the 267 pending proposals to relax the
vice could increase the incidence items as suspicious. Most such mailbox monopoly, several mea
of theft at the mailbox, increase items turn out not to be seri sures should be considered as
the risks of mail-related financial ous; still, the large discrepancy in part of any effort to do so. These
crimes such as identity theft, and screening and detection rates sug include establishing national train
increase the delivery of suspicious gests that the USPS detects suspi ing standards for private couriers,
items to consumers, including cious items with greater sensitivity identifying what agency should
explosives-related items,” said Lois than do couriers. be responsible for oversight and
Davis, the study’s lead author and How much greater the risk enforcement of those standards,
a senior RAND policy researcher. might be depends on how much and creating a national reporting
Key reasons for the increased mail would shift to couriers and system to allow the U.S. Postal
risks are differences in staff train whether only the major couriers Inspection Service and the U.S.
ing between the USPS and private or a selected range of them were Department of Justice to track
couriers and the increased num allowed to enter the postal market. mail crimes and crime involving
ber of personnel who would have Fully understanding this matter couriers. ■
access to mailboxes. There are also requires more detailed data on
For more information: The Role of the
variations among couriers in their courier screening practices. United States Postal Service in Pub
screening procedures and detec “Relaxing the mailbox monop lic Safety and Security: Implications of
Relaxing the Mailbox Monopoly, RAND/
tion techniques. oly could also dilute the U.S. Postal Mg-800-USPS, iSBN 978-0-8330-4615-4,
Although private couriers Inspection Service’s ability to track 2008.
did not respond to requests for
data, publicly available documents
and suggestive data from the U.S.
Postal Inspection Service’s incident U.S. Postal Service Appears More Likely Than Private Couriers to
Detect Suspicious Packages
database allow for a comparison
between the public and private sys Screening/
tems. These data relate to a point Private detection
the figure).
“Last mile” items detected as suspicious: 267
The database revealed 267 sus • Percent detected by USPS screening: 87%
picious last-mile items from 2003 • Percent detected by customers: 13%
w w w . R A N D . o R g R A N D R e v i e w / F A L L 2 0 0 8 5
News
By better managing environmen ture are severely degraded, the that will be vital once combat
tal issues during deployments, U.S. crucial priorities of local inhabit has ended,” said lead author and
Army units can gain tactical and ants include clean drinking water, RAND senior policy analyst David
strategic advantages that will help in effective sewage and trash systems, Mosher. “Determining what to
combat and post-conflict operations and viable farmland. Public opin preserve will demand that leaders
and can boost overall mission suc ion surveys indicate, for example, and planners take a strategic view
cess, according to a RAND study. that Iraqis care about these issues a of the operation, including what
Many environmental issues great deal (as shown in the figure). the end result ought to be.”
can affect the planning and execu U.S. experience in Iraq suggests Environmental issues can also
tion of military operations or can that providing these life-sustaining affect soldier health and safety, the
be affected by them. These issues infrastructures can influence whether costs of an operation, the logistical
include clean water, sewage-related the inhabitants support the local gov burden of supporting the forces, and
infrastructure, soldier health, com ernment and U.S. goals and objec diplomatic relations. The study finds
pliance with environmental laws, tives. The U.S. Army has also had that long deployments and extended
sustainability, protection of histori a positive influence on the environ post-conflict operations like those
cal and cultural sites, and manage ment in operations in Afghanistan, in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Bal
ment of agricultural and natural Iraq, and the Balkans, where U.S. kans expose U.S. forces to a variety
resources. The trend over the past soldiers have helped to build wells, of environmental problems. At one
15 years toward longer deployments sewage treatment plants, and other base camp in Afghanistan, long-
and more emphasis on stability water infrastructure systems, accord standing pollution problems caused
and counterinsurgency operations ing to the study. short-term respiratory illnesses for
amplifies the importance of the “Commanders and planners U.S. soldiers until the problem was
environment for army operations. can take steps in the combat phase identified and addressed.
In countries where environ to preserve existing environmen The study finds that command
mental conditions and infrastruc tal infrastructure and resources ers have not usually given envi
ronmental concerns high priority
during planning, despite the effect
Rebuilding the Infrastructure Is One of the Highest Priorities for Iraqis that environmental conditions can
90
have on troop health, safety, and
80 85 security, and despite their impor
Percentage of respondents
70
tance for the local population.
60
The researchers recommend
55
50
that U.S. Army leaders give more
40
weight to the strategic, operational,
30
30 30
28
and tactical aspects of environ
20
mental considerations during plan
10
ning and operations and develop
comprehensive standards and best
0
Regaining Rebuilding Holding Ensuring Reviving practices to address environmental
public the elections that people the issues during contingencies. ■
security infrastructure for a can make economy
national a decent
government living For more information: Green Warriors:
Army Environmental Considerations
SOURCE: ABC News Poll, March 2004. for Contingency Operations from Plan
NOTE: Responses show first, second, or third priority. ning Through Post-Conflict, RAND/MG
632-A, ISBN 978-0-8330-4318-4, 2008.
6 R A N D R E V I E W / F A L L 2 0 0 8 W W W . R A N D . O R G
News
Democratic political reforms can tutions, as democracy advocates Some believe democracy is
marginalize extremists and under might expect,” said Dalia Dassa dangerous to U.S. interests in the
mine support for terrorism, but Kaye, the report’s lead author Middle East, but the study recom
enacting merely cosmetic reforms and a RAND political scientist. mends “realistic democracy promo
and backtracking on democratiza “Instead, they often exacerbated tion.” Such a policy would apply
tion can exacerbate the risk of terror existing societal cleavages, because sustained pressure to strengthen
ism, according to a RAND study. those in power tended to ‘stack democratic institutions and prac
The study looked at the effects the deck’ to maintain their power tices and to scrutinize reforms;
of liberalization processes on domes when implementing reforms.” emphasize human rights, trans
tic political violence in six Arab Moreover, cosmetic reforms, parency, judicial reform, and the
states: Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jor or those put into place and then rule of law; avoid taking sides in
dan, Morocco, and Saudi Arabia. withdrawn, can destabilize a coun elections; safeguard security while
The belief that greater democ try by eroding the legitimacy of respecting the rule of law; engage
racy reduces terrorism has played a the system, thereby undermining Islamic parties while leveling the
significant role in recent U.S. foreign moderate factions among political playing field for other types of
policy. However, the study finds opposition groups and undercut political opposition; and recog
little direct evidence that democ ting public support for counterter nize political motivations behind
racy has either a positive or negative rorism efforts. both sides of the democratization
effect on terrorism. Using data from Then again, even limited debate. ■
the RAND–Memorial Institute for reforms can have some beneficial
the Prevention of Terrorism, the effects. In some cases, allowing For more information: More Freedom,
Less Terror? Liberalization and Political
study compared the number of ter opposition movements to partici Violence in the Arab World, RAND/MG
rorist incidents in each country with pate in the political process has 772-RC, ISBN 978-0-8330-4508-9, 2008.
its score on the Freedom House marginalized radical elements and
index, which ranks a country’s level prevented more violent tactics.
of freedom based on political rights
and civil liberties.
The figure shows the results There Is Little Correlation Between More Freedom and Less Terror: The Case of Egypt
for Egypt from 1985 to 2007. 18 7
Although there is some relation
16 Freedom House
ship between terrorist incidents score 6
and Freedom House rankings— 14
Freedom House score
Incidents of terrorism
W W W . R A N D . O R G R A N D R E V I E W / F A L L 2 0 0 8 7
RAND Then and Now
8 R A N D R E V I E W / F A L L 2 0 0 8 W W W . R A N D . O R G
RAND Then and Now
Related Reading
“Can Medical Savings Accounts for the Nonelderly Reduce Health Care
Costs?” Journal of the American Medical Association, Vol. 275, No. 21,
June 1996, pp. 1666–1671, Emmett B. Keeler, Jesse D. Malkin, Dana P.
Goldman, Joan L. Buchanan. Also available as RAND/RP-540, 1996.
AP IMAGES/JOHN MILLER
cal technology, longevity, labor supply, and earnings. FEM is Mandating Health Insurance Benefits for Employees: Effects on Health
Care Use and Employer’s Costs, M. Susan Marquis, Joan L. Buchanan,
being used to examine such trends among people over 50 in the Emmett B. Keeler, John E. Rolph, Man-bing Sze, RAND/N-2911-DOL, 1989,
United States, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Nether 43 pp., $23.
lands, Spain, and Sweden. Modeling the Health and Medical Care Spending of the Future Elderly,
“Because of FEM, policymakers will be better equipped RAND/RB-9324, 2008, 8 pp. As of press time (Web only):
www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB9324/
to design social programs that improve health with the lowest
effective public and private expenditures,” said Dana Goldman, “Simulating Health Expenditures Under Alternative Insurance Plans,”
Management Science, Vol. 37, No. 9, September 1991, pp. 1067–1090,
who developed the model with his RAND colleagues. FEM is Joan L. Buchanan, Emmett B. Keeler, John E. Rolph, Martin R. Holmer.
at the heart of research being done in the RAND Roybal Center Also available as RAND/RP-205, 1993.
for Health Policy Simulation.
RAND COMPARE Web site: www.randcompare.org/
RAND Health’s Comprehensive Assessment of Reform
Efforts (COMPARE) initiative has developed a new microsimu
lation model that builds on what has been learned from prior
RAND modeling. “Starting in early 2009, COMPARE will
provide online access to the results of simulations on the effects
of coverage-related policy changes on the number of people with
insurance, spending, consumer financial risk, and health relative
to what would occur in the absence of any change in policy,”
W W W . R A N D . O R G R A N D R E V I E W / F A L L 2 0 0 8 9
Asian Exchange
China and India Trade Lessons in Education
and Health
P
henomenal growth in China and India has drawn sector, where medical students increasingly prefer to
attention to their relative performance in various work, and reduced regulation of prices. For example,
spheres, but there has been little comparison of the overutilization of newly marketed drugs in China
their education and health systems. Comparing these is a very problematic issue that raises concerns about
systems can illuminate their worthiness as examples for wasteful spending as well as quality of care. The Chi
one another and for the rest of the developing world. nese government should focus on regulating the qual
India has focused on higher education for a few, ity of drugs rather than their price.
while China has focused on basic education for the India should emulate two aspects of China’s
masses. As one would expect, India enjoyed a com health system: greater spending on basic national
petitive edge over China in higher education until health infrastructure, such as clinics and preventive
very recently, while China has outperformed India in care services at the village level, and greater efforts to
primary and secondary education. Both models have reduce preventable deaths from communicable dis
contributed to economic growth but are likely to pro eases and from poor maternal and infant health. The
duce very different distributional outcomes. Indian government should commit more resources to
India can learn from China how to improve the improving hygiene, water quality, and nutrition.
efficiency of public education, particularly by provid
ing appropriate incentives to teachers and schools, Education as Destiny
whereas China can learn from India how to expand Since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949, China
private higher education. India is unusual, however, has made great strides in educating the masses. The
in that it has benefited from a broad base of English- primary school gross enrollment rate (which includes
speaking workers. The universal education strategy of those who do not belong in the relevant age group for a
China might be safer for other countries to emulate. given level of education) reached 100 percent in 1985.
10 R A N D R E V I E W / F A L L 2 0 0 8 W W W . R A N D . O R G
The secondary gross enrollment rate rose above 70 worked well in China, and India
percent in 2003, representing a huge increase from 40 could explore similar strategies. The different
percent in 1960. Most impressively, the adult literacy India’s experience with pri
rate soared from about 20 percent in the late 1940s to vate higher education offers a patterns of
93 percent in 2007 (see Figure 1). possible direction for China. In economic
India, on the other hand, devoted a large propor 2005–2006, private higher educa
tion of its education resources to higher education, par tion accounted for 31 percent of development
ticularly in science and technology. This has resulted in total higher education enrollment appear to mirror
a higher percentage of college-educated people than in in India, compared with a modest
China (see Figure 2). This has also left India with some 9 percent in China. The prolifera
the differing
of the finest institutes of higher education, notably the tion of private institutes has greatly education models.
Indian Institutes of Technology and the Indian Insti helped to expand the higher educa-
tutes of Management. Meanwhile, the Indian popula tion capacity in India at a time when public enroll
tion at large remains uneducated. According to 2004 ment and capacity have increased only marginally.
data, India, with an adult literacy rate of 61 percent, Private institutes, typically more sensitive to labor
100 India 97 93
appear to mirror the differing education models. A 90
79 77
larger labor pool with basic education has allowed China 80
15 and over
66 66
to attract large-scale manufacturing plants. Education 60 55 55
51
has equipped Chinese workers with the basic skills for 41
manufacturing and allowed them to travel from rural 40
26
areas to the jobs in urban areas. In contrast, a larger 20
stock of college-educated, technically savvy, English-
0
speaking labor has made India a choice destination for Females Males Total Females Males Total
international software and services outsourcing. 1981–1982 2007
Developing countries in Africa and the rest of Asia SOURCE: UNESCO Institute for Statistics, Custom Tables. As of November 10, 2008:
stats.uis.unesco.org/unesco/TableViewer/document.aspx?ReportId=143&IF_Language=eng
can draw lessons from the contrasting experiences of
NOTE: 1981 data are for India; 1982 data are for China.
China and India. Countries with little disparity in edu
cation achievement tend to have smaller variations in
income. Those with concentrated education attainment
are more likely to see larger income gaps. Japan and the Figure 2—For Decades, India Has Had a Higher Percentage of Adults
East Asian “Tigers” are good illustrations of the former, Who Have Ever Attended College Than Has China
3 2.8
China also offers an excellent example of how 2.4
school choice and merit-based teachers’ salaries can 2 1.9
W W W . R A N D . O R G R A N D R E V I E W / F A L L 2 0 0 8 11
Students work
with their teacher
in the chemistry
department of
the private Amity
University in
Noida, India. If
Amity’s founder
has his way, in
less than a decade
it will be the cen
ter of a vast chain
of private univer
sities, feeding a
ravenous middle-
class appetite for
education left
unsatisfied by the
country’s public
university system.
AP IMAGES/MUSTAFA QURAISHI
market conditions, also have the potential to improve The health systems in both countries provide
the relevance of higher education, a concern for both little protection from financial risk. In China, medi
India and China. cal expenditures have become a principal cause of
poverty, swelling the number of rural households that
Health as Wealth are below the poverty line by 44 percent. In India, up
Overall, people in China live longer, healthier lives than to a third of hospitalized patients are impoverished by
do people in India. The difference for women is larger medical costs.
than that for men, owing in part to the tenfold greater The heavy burden of health costs in China and
maternal death rate during childbirth for Indian women India is not surprising given the lack of well-developed
compared with Chinese women (see the table). Further health insurance schemes in both countries. This situ
more, China has achieved better ation is exacerbated by two factors. First, the lack of
prevention and control of commu access to affordable care means that people defer pre
The reduced focus nicable diseases. Noncommuni- ventive and other necessary care; consequently, when
cable diseases, particularly chronic they do seek care, they typically have a more serious
on public health . . . obstructive pulmonary disease and and costly medical condition. Second, for those who
may be one of the cancer, now account for 77 percent seek care, physician-induced overutilization of care
of all deaths in China. In India, by further increases the financial burden.
most important comparison, more than 40 percent The chief challenge for both systems is to reduce
health issues of all deaths are still due to com the out-of-pocket burden on individuals. This can
municable diseases, including HIV/ be accomplished by providing nationalized or social
emerging in each AIDS, diarrheal diseases, respiratory insurance, as is common in Europe, or by encouraging
country. infections, and perinatal conditions. private insurance, as is common in the United States.
12 R A N D R E V I E W / F A L L 2 0 0 8 W W W . R A N D . O R G
China is leaning toward the former, whereas India People in China Live Longer, Healthier Lives Than Do People
seems to be favoring the latter. But both public and in India
private insurance should be considered in both coun Key Health System Indicators China India
tries to meet a diversity of needs. Financing
To contain costs further, both countries should Total expenditure on health per capita (2003) $61 $27
consider alternative reimbursement mechanisms, such Out-of-pocket expenses as a percentage of
as prospective payment systems that cover predeter total medical spending (2003) 56% 73%
mined amounts of money, similar to how Medicare Organization
operates in the United States. Both China and India Private providers as a percentage of total
medical care provision (China in 2002,
should also consider vertically integrated provision of India in 2003) 4% 79%
health insurance and health care, similar to health
Health Outcomes
maintenance organizations.
Life expectancy (2004) 72 years 62 years
In the 1980s, both countries faced pressure to
Maternal death rate during childbirth per
increase the role of the private sector in providing 100,000 women (2000) 56 540
health care services. But health care privatization has
SOURCES: The World Health Report 2006: Working Together for Health, Geneva:
had some negative effects. Citizens of both countries World Health Organization, 2006; Health System Performance Assessment:
now bear greater burdens in financing their health World Health Survey, 2003: India, Mumbai: International Institute for Population
Sciences, and Geneva: World Health Organization, 2006.
care needs. In addition, the private sector has a greater NOTE: Total expenditure on health per capita is shown in U.S. dollars at average
exchange rates.
incentive to provide curative rather than preventive
treatments. The reduced focus on public health, espe
cially on the prevention of communicable diseases and
on the promotion of healthy lifestyles, may be one of
the most important health issues emerging in each
country.
Both China and India face the critical challenge of
increasing access to care for the poor. Both countries
need to build more primary health care facilities and
to better manage existing facilities. Special attention
should be paid to improving access to care in rural and
remote areas by expanding their programs for educa
tion, screening, immunization, and transportation
assistance. Ensuring resources for preventive and basic
curative care will help local clinics and community
hospitals continue to exist and improve.
China and India account for more than 40 percent
of the world population. The health policy choices of
AP IMAGES/EUGENE HOSHIKO
these two countries not only will affect their citizens but
Outside Changzhou, a sprawling industrial city in eastern China, sits a small factory
also could give policymakers around the world ideas for farm processing chemicals from pig guts into heparin, a blood thinner that has been
coping with their own health care challenges. ■ linked to 19 deaths and hundreds of allergic reactions.
Related Reading
A Comparison of the Health Systems in China and India, Sai
Caring for a Third of the World’s Population: Challenges for Ma, Neeraj Sood, RAND/OP-212-CAPP, 2008, 58 pp., ISBN 978
the Health Systems of China and India, Sai Ma, Neeraj Sood, 0-8330-4483-9, $23.50. As of press time:
RAND/CP-521 (6/08), 4 pp. As of press time (Web only): www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/OP212/
www.rand.org/pubs/corporate_pubs/CP521-2008-06/
Education and the Asian Surge: A Comparison of the Educa
China and India: Different Educational Paths Toward Prosper tion Systems in India and China, Charles A. Goldman, Krishna
ity, Ying Liu, Krishna B. Kumar, RAND/CP-521 (2/08), 4 pp. As of B. Kumar, Ying Liu, RAND/OP-218-CAPP, 2008, 53 pp. As of
press time (Web only): press time (Web only):
www.rand.org/pubs/corporate_pubs/CP521-2008-02/ www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/OP218/
W W W . R A N D . O R G R A N D R E V I E W / F A L L 2 0 0 8 13
A BETTER DEAL
By James A. Thomson Eight of the twelve following essays suggest that the nation’s
current policies are not the most efficient ways of doing things.
James Thomson is president and chief executive officer of the RAND While it is unclear whether the proposed alternatives would cost
Corporation. less, they would offer more bang for the national buck. These are
changes for the better that we can afford.
Robert Hunter reports that the ratio between military and
udging by the emerging worldwide consensus, President- nonmilitary U.S. national security spending is now 17 to 1.
14 R A N D R E V I E W / F A L L 2 0 0 8 W W W . R A N D . O R G
A BETTER DEAL
MILITARY
INTERVENTIONS
SHIFT THE BALANCE TO
CIVILIAN ACTIVITIES
AP IMAGES/RON EDMONDS
By Robert E. Hunter
energy options. He recommends some combination of renew o do a better job of managing the kinds of U.S.
able energies, unconventional fossil fuels, energy efficiency, and
conservation.
On education policy, Brian Stecher and Laura Hamilton argue
for greater flexibility in the accountability systems associated with
T military interventions and the aftermaths that have
become prevalent since the 1990s, the new president
and Congress should shift substantial resources from the nation’s
defense agencies and military services to the U.S. Department of
the No Child Left Behind Act. Being more responsive to local con State and U.S. Agency for International Development. Military-
ditions could reduce local opposition to this federal investment. civilian efforts must also be integrated from top to bottom, with
Finally, there are few better examples of wasteful national civilians and military officers being required to gain extensive
spending than the U.S. health care system, and few policy areas cross-agency experience in one another’s disciplines.
have been more resistant to reform. To help break the logjam, The ratio between military and nonmilitary U.S. national
Elizabeth McGlynn and Jeffrey Wasserman offer a tool to com security spending is now 17 to 1. A major increase in the share
pare the effects of proposed reforms across multiple dimensions for nonmilitary activities is in order. This should include adding
affecting numerous interest groups. at least 1,100 foreign service officers to the U.S. State Depart
McGlynn and Wasserman have begun to do for health ment, adding 2,000 officers to the U.S. Agency for International
care what needs to be done for all areas of public policy. It is Development, and creating a separate agency similar to the now-
time to take stock of the options, to cash out the losses, and to defunct U.S. Information Agency.
make wiser investments in the public interest. The eight essays These and the other recommendations below can be
cited above—along with the accompanying essays on Iraq, Iran, implemented without changing the National Security Act and
Turkey, and nuclear proliferation—propose some of the ways in without major legislation, except to increase funding for non
which the new U.S. president can offer America a better deal. ■ military national security activities. The new administration and
Congress can make these changes rapidly and largely through
administrative action.
U.S. success in interventions abroad, particularly counter
While it is unclear whether the insurgencies and counterterrorism, requires more coordination and
proposed alternatives would cost integration of military and nonmilitary efforts, activities, agencies,
and personnel than ever before. Arms-length relationships between
less, they would offer more bang departments like Defense and State are no longer acceptable.
for the national buck. These are Preparing for success must begin with cross-agency training
and education in modern techniques of military and nonmili
changes for the better that we can tary activities. There needs to be a reorganization of the civilian
afford. agencies to promote career-enhancing professional exchanges
W W W . R A N D . O R G R A N D R E V I E W / F A L L 2 0 0 8 15
A BETTER DEAL
COUNTERTERRORISM
16 R A N D R E V I E W / F A L L 2 0 0 8 W W W . R A N D . O R G
national cooperation and multilateral efforts, the composition
of which will change with circumstances. Multiple overlapping Major military incursions into
campaigns will be pursued by multiple overlapping coalitions.
Our strategy must be consistent with our values. We should Pakistan would be a mistake.
close down Guantanamo, promptly release those who have been The political risks outweigh any
wrongly held, and develop a patently fair procedure to try the
rest, while holding onto the most dangerous terrorist planners.
temporary military gains.
Our opposition to torture must be unequivocal and must apply
to all U.S. agencies. Judicial oversight of domestic intelligence
collection should be fully restored. volunteer civilians serving as political officers and development
We must continue our military and economic commitment agents, to meet specific missions.
to Afghanistan, even though the conflict there could continue Major military incursions into Pakistan would be a mistake.
for another 30 years. Some additional American reinforcements The political risks outweigh any temporary military gains. An
may be needed, but we should avoid the kind of large-scale mili invasion could provoke a negative reaction in Pakistan’s tribal
tary buildup that shortens time horizons. areas, further complicate the already precarious political situa
U.S. counterterrorism efforts should always favor develop tion, and galvanize new support for al Qaeda.
ing local capability. It will not be American or NATO forces Talking to adversaries must remain a part of America’s strat
that ultimately prevail over al Qaeda and the Taliban, but egy. Dialogue is not an alternative to fighting, nor does it neces
Afghan forces. The same is true in other countries where terror sarily end fighting. It is part of a strategy aimed at dissuading,
ists threaten local society. We must look for ways to accelerate demoralizing, and dividing the enemy, while offering an exit for
the development of local capacity, including assigning area- the disillusioned—to reverse Clausewitz’s famous dictum, an
trained American volunteers to remain in high-threat areas for extension of war by other means.
long periods and to work directly with local forces. We must look for ways to deflect vulnerable young men
The U.S. military should be willing to consider very differ from a trajectory that is destructive and self-destructive, without
ent structures. One would comprise our current armed forces, alienating or stigmatizing any communities. Offering individual
trained and equipped to project conventional military power terrorists an attractive way out of the terrorist orbit should be a
and increasingly experienced in counterinsurgency. The other component of our counterterrorist strategy, despite the likely
would be a virtual organization that could assemble military low yield. This will require flexibility in the justice system.
specialists in counterinsurgency and psychological warfare, with While a law enforcement approach to terrorism may be prefer
able to a military approach, strict adherence to the criminal
justice system should not get in the way of defeating the terrorist
movement.
The emphasis on homeland security also must be on sus
tainability: efforts to impede recruitment to violence, security
measures that are built-in and do not hinder the economy, an
informed allocation of possibly declining security resources, and,
above all, the education and active engagement of the public.
We need to enhance the intelligence capabilities of local
police departments, training and linking them with federal
agencies and one another. Sharing information can be facilitated
by revising our antiquated classification and clearance process,
which was more suitable to the Cold War than it is to the more
fluid, fast-moving threat of terrorism.
We must seek security solutions that are both effective and
efficient. We cannot allow the terrorist threat to destroy our
AP IMAGES/BRENNAN LINSLEY economy or alter our society. Rebuilding America’s crumbling
The sun sets over Camp Justice at Guantanamo Bay U.S. Naval Base, in Cuba. infrastructure presents an opportunity to completely rethink
The camp already feels like a ghost town. Just as the clock is running out on
the Bush administration, so, too, is it ticking for America’s six-year attempt
how we move people, goods, energy, and information to achieve
to try the so-called “worst of the worst” for war crimes. nonsecurity solutions to security problems. ■
W W W . R A N D . O R G R A N D R E V I E W / F A L L 2 0 0 8 17
U.S. intelligence agencies have identified terrorist plots stem
A BETTER DEAL
ming from the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region as perhaps
the single most important threat to the U.S. homeland. NATO’s
reputation is also at stake over its first-ever involvement in ground
AFGHANISTAN combat, and its credibility would be severely tarnished if it failed
to stabilize Afghanistan.
FINISH THE JOB There are more than 50,000 international troops in Afghan
istan, along with more than 50,000 Afghan National Army
soldiers. The number of U.S. and NATO forces should rise by at
By Seth G. Jones
least 28,000 until indigenous soldiers can fill those ranks. This
will entail making difficult choices, such as redeploying some
Seth Jones is a RAND political scientist and an adjunct professor at
U.S. forces from Iraq to Afghanistan.
Georgetown University and the Naval Postgraduate School.
At the same time, the United States and its allies must
redouble their efforts to build the Afghan security forces, par
ticularly the police. In most operations against al Qaeda, local
t is time for the United States to finish what it started when police forces have greater legitimacy and a better understand
Ali Akbar,
an Afghan
pomegranate
seller, arranges
his produce at
the World
Pomegranate
Fair in Kabul,
Afghanistan, on
November 20,
2008. Afghan
officials have
launched a mar
keting campaign
for the fruit in
the hope that it
will give farmers
an alternative to
growing opium
poppies.
AP IMAGES/RAFIQ MAQBOOL
18 R A N D R E V I E W / F A L L 2 0 0 8 W W W . R A N D . O R G
A BETTER DEAL
The deteriorating situation and
local nature of the insurgency now
require Western support for local PAKISTAN
tribes, subtribes, and clans to help PUT INSTITUTIONS FIRST
establish order and governance.
By C. Christine Fair
W W W . R A N D . O R G R A N D R E V I E W / F A L L 2 0 0 8 19
Hundreds of
Pakistani lawyers
and workers of
opposition politi
cal parties protest
in Rawalpindi,
Pakistan, on
November 3,
2008, to pressure
the government
to reinstate doz
ens of judges,
including Iftikhar
Mohammad
Chaudhry, who
was fired by
former President
Pervez Musharraf.
AP IMAGES/ANJUM NAYEED
counterterrorism efforts. The United States should continue to The United States has agreed to spend $750 million in
expand programs that enable Pakistan to fight terrorism more development funds in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal
effectively. At all levels, the United States must engage in a genuine Areas along the Afghan border. But neither Washington nor
strategic dialogue with Pakistani military and civilian leaders. Islamabad has backed legal and political reforms for these areas.
Meanwhile, the United States should dramatically expand It is unlikely that economic investments will bring residents of
its assistance to reform Pakistan’s civilian institutions, nota these areas into mainstream society in the absence of a legal
bly the judiciary, police, and law enforcement; to train large framework consistent with Pakistan’s own constitution and
numbers of politicians; and to support civil society institutions absent the functioning police, courts, and other basic services
such as those that monitor human rights, corruption, politi that Pakistanis elsewhere enjoy.
cal reconciliation, and human development. Education should Pakistanis need to be reassured that the United States is
remain a priority, but educational initiatives should be sensitive seriously committed to securing a democratic Pakistan. The
to Pakistani preferences, which may not involve secularization United States should shift from supporting one person or party
of the curriculum. toward supporting the key democratic institutions and processes
of this critical country.
However, without a Pakistani commitment to change, the
United States will be unable to help Pakistan transform and
The United States should stabilize itself. Should Pakistan be unwilling to reverse course
and to take decisive action against all militant groups active in
dramatically expand its assistance
the country, Washington must be willing and ready to conclude
to reform Pakistan’s civilian that Pakistan is an unsuitable recipient of U.S. generosity. And
this is a choice that Pakistan should have to make. ■
institutions, notably the judiciary,
police, and law enforcement.
20 R A N D R E V I E W / F A L L 2 0 0 8 W W W . R A N D . O R G
military forces, though one that is different in terms of missions,
A BETTER DEAL
force structure, size, and basing than that currently in play.
Violence in Iraq has diminished over the past year thanks
to several major contributing factors: Sunni reaction to al Qaeda
IRAQ excesses (the Sunni “awakening”), a pullback of Shiite militias from
anti-Sunni violence and from confrontation with coalition forces,
OFFER A NEW VISION a diminution in externally supplied armaments, and a temporary
increase in the number of U.S. forces (the “surge”) coupled with a
more effective use of Iraqi Army forces. Moving U.S. forces out of
By Nora Bensahel, Edward O’Connell, and David E. Thaler
military bases and into places such as Baghdad has also increased
their ability to monitor the safety and security of the population.
Nora Bensahel is a RAND senior political scientist and an adjunct
All these factors are subject to change. At reduced levels, U.S.
professor at Georgetown University. Edward O’Connell is a RAND
forces might not have sufficient troops on hand to protect the
senior analyst and co-leader of RAND’s Alternative Strategy
population. Some members of the Sunni awakening could grow
Initiative. David Thaler is a RAND senior analyst.
disenchanted if they are not integrated into the security forces
as quickly as promised. The Shia cease-fires, always shaky, could
easily be withdrawn or ignored by rogue members. Corruption in
rogress has been made in Iraq on enhancing civilian the Iraqi National Police and key ministries remains a problem.
An Iraqi woman
wears traditional
dress for a
transfer-of
authority cere
mony in Hilla,
Iraq, near the
ruins of the
ancient city of
Babylon, on
October 23, 2008.
The U.S. relin
quished control
of the southern
province of Babil,
handing security
responsibility to
the Iraqi govern
ment. U.S. forces
will remain in
the area to assist
the Iraqis when
needed.
AP IMAGES/ALAA AL-MARJANI
W W W . R A N D . O R G R A N D R E V I E W / F A L L 2 0 0 8 21
A BETTER DEAL
America’s role in Iraq is in
transition. Local acceptance of
a U.S. presence will continue IRAN
to depend on its perceived BUILD A CONSTRUCTIVE
effectiveness. RELATIONSHIP
22 R A N D R E V I E W / F A L L 2 0 0 8 W W W . R A N D . O R G
A BETTER DEAL
TURKEY
STRIKE A BALANCE
AP IMAGES/HASAN SARBAKHSHIAN
An Iranian moneychanger eats his lunch as he displays bank notes in stable democratic Turkey is strongly in the American
Tehran, Iran, on October 30, 2008. The country has plunged into a storm
of recrimination, directed largely at President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, as
falling oil prices have hurt the Iranian economy. A interest and would contribute to enhancing stability
in three areas of increasing strategic importance to the
United States: the Middle East, the Caucasus, and Central Asia.
The best way for U.S. officials to ensure that a stable Turkey
exchanges more generously, encourage U.S. officials to speak to remains closely anchored to the West is to continue to nudge
Iranian media, and expand U.S.-supported broadcasts in local the country toward strengthening the kind of political and eco
languages as a forum for discussion of major social issues. nomic reforms that would help to ease the growing polarization
The United States can also promote changes to liberalize in Turkish society that has been evident in recent years.
the Iranian economy, potentially strengthening the private sec Specifically, the United States should support those sec
tor and weakening the sway of the religious establishment. To tors in Turkish society that are working to reconcile Islam
this end, the United States should not oppose Iran’s accession with democracy. The obvious example is the ruling Justice and
to the World Trade Organization and should support efforts by Development Party, which received a renewed mandate in the
the International Monetary Fund and World Bank to encourage July 2007 parliamentary elections. The ability of this party with
better economic management in the country. The United States Islamic roots to operate within the framework of a secular dem
should still maintain an embargo on gas liquefaction and gas-to ocratic system, while respecting the boundaries between religion
liquids technologies as a bargaining chip until Iranian policies and state, refutes the argument that Islam cannot be reconciled
become more congruent with U.S. interests. with modern secular democracy. On the other hand, if the
There are greater similarities than differences in the values experiment fails, it could lead to greater polarization along a
held by the two peoples. Both Iranians and Americans place secular-Islamic axis, further reducing the middle ground needed
high importance on family, religion, work, and service to oth to build a moderate Muslim bulwark to contain the spread of
ers, with few differences contributing to “civilizational clashes.” radicalized Islam.
The governments could turn to these shared values if and when In addition, the United States needs to deal more resolutely
Tehran and Washington decide to normalize relations. with the terrorist attacks against Turkish territory conducted
Iranians do have an imposing set of grievances against by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) from sanctuaries in
the United States and vice versa. But Iran is more democratic northern Iraq. In Turkish eyes, the PKK issue is the litmus test
than Egypt and less fundamentalist than Saudi Arabia, two of of the value of the U.S.-Turkish security relationship. The U.S.
America’s most important allies in the region. It is time to apply reluctance to help Turkey respond to Kurdish terrorism has been
to Iran the same set of policies that won the Cold War, liberated the primary cause of the strained relations between Turkey and
the Warsaw Pact, and reunited Europe: détente and contain America and of the dramatic rise in anti-American sentiment in
ment, communication whenever possible, and confrontation Turkey since 2004.
when necessary. It is time to negotiate with Iran, uncondition The closer military and intelligence cooperation with
ally and comprehensively. ■ Ankara against the PKK since Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
W W W . R A N D . O R G R A N D R E V I E W / F A L L 2 0 0 8 23
Turkish students
wearing Islamic-
style headscarves
gather in front
of the main cam
pus of Istanbul
University on
October 23, 2008,
to protest a
headscarf ban at
Turkish universi
ties. Government
attempts to lift
the ban have
escalated ten
sions between
the secular oppo
sition and the
ruling, Islamic-
rooted Justice
and Development
Party.
AP IMAGES/IBRAHIM USTA
Erdoğan’s visit to Washington in November 2007 has helped to U.S. Congress by the Armenian lobby does not lead to new
defuse some of the mistrust that has built up since—and to a strains in relations with Ankara. In 2007, the Bush administra
large degree as a consequence of—the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. tion shelved a genocide resolution at the last second, narrowly
But this cooperation needs to be followed up by other concrete averting a serious crisis with Ankara. But the resolution is likely
steps. In particular, the United States should put greater pres to be reintroduced and to remain a potential source of discord.
sure on the Kurdistan Regional Government in northern Iraq to Passage of such a resolution would do nothing to foster
crack down on the PKK. Turkish-Armenian reconciliation. If anything, it would stimu
However, the PKK cannot be defeated by military means late a nationalist backlash in Turkey and make reconciliation
alone. While a tough counterterrorist program is important, it more difficult. The new U.S. president thus needs to work
must be combined with Turkish social and economic reforms closely with the congressional leadership to keep the genocide
that address the root causes of the Kurdish grievances. The issue from causing a new crisis that could derail the important
United States should also encourage Turkey to enter into a direct improvement in U.S.-Turkish relations since late 2007.
dialogue with the Kurdistan Regional Government, whose Finally, the United States should support Turkey’s ambition
cooperation is essential to reduce the PKK threat. to join the European Union (EU). Turkey’s integration into the
The new U.S. administration also needs to ensure that the EU would strengthen Turkey’s Western orientation and would
Armenian genocide resolution periodically introduced in the rebut the claim that the West—especially Europe—is innately
hostile to Muslims.
Conversely, rejection of Turkey’s candidacy could provoke
an anti-Western backlash, strengthening those forces in Turkey
The United States should support that want to weaken its ties to the West. The United States
those sectors in Turkish society should support Turkish membership diplomatically behind the
scenes but avoid overt pressure on the EU, which could backfire
that are working to reconcile Islam
and damage Turkey’s chances of obtaining EU membership over
with democracy. the long run. ■
24 R A N D R E V I E W / F A L L 2 0 0 8 W W W . R A N D . O R G
their weapons. Beyond deterrence, U.S. and allied leaders will
A BETTER DEAL
want military capabilities that offer far greater assurance that
the use of nuclear weapons by such adversaries can be prevented,
which would mean physically blocking an attack irrespective
PROLIFERATION of the intentions and actions of the adversary. This will require
forces that can locate, track, and destroy nuclear weapons and
PREVENT NUCLEAR USE,
their delivery vehicles before and, above all, after they are
DETER TERRORIST ACQUISITION
launched. Accordingly, greater emphasis should be placed on
developing and fielding more-effective defenses against theater-
range missiles that could deliver such weapons.
By David Ochmanek
At the same time that the United States should look
beyond deterrence against nuclear-armed regional adversaries,
David Ochmanek, a RAND defense analyst, served as deputy assistant
deterrence will still have its place, particularly with regard to
secretary of defense for strategy from 1993 to 1995.
their relations with terrorist groups. As my RAND colleague
Brian Michael Jenkins has pointed out, it is unlikely that any
nuclear-weapons state would turn over part of its nuclear arsenal
hen North Korea tested its first nuclear device to terrorist control, because the benefits to the state would be
W W W . R A N D . O R G R A N D R E V I E W / F A L L 2 0 0 8 25
A BETTER DEAL U.S. Investments in Research and Development Have
Grown Steadily
$300
$0
By Titus Galama and James Hosek 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003
Year
SOURCE: U.S. Competitiveness in Science and Technology, 2008.
Titus Galama is a RAND management scientist. Economist James NOTES: All three research categories include federally funded, industry-funded, and
Hosek is editor of the RAND Journal of Economics and a professor nonprofit-funded research. Development refers to the exploitation of research discoveries.
Applied research is conducted for government-driven, commercial-driven, or client-driven
at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. purposes. Basic, or “pure,” research is carried out to expand knowledge with no direct or
immediate benefit.
conomic issues played a big role in the presidential elec The United States has built and maintained its lead with
26 R A N D R E V I E W / F A L L 2 0 0 8 W W W . R A N D . O R G
tial. Another option—fuel from a synthetic mixture of biomass
A BETTER DEAL
and liquefied coal, combined with carbon capture and storage—
could also greatly reduce carbon emissions.
But dramatic further progress in renewable energy tech
ENERGY nologies is required over the next two decades if the United
States hopes to produce a significant percentage of the nation’s
PURSUE A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS electricity and motor vehicle fuel from renewable sources at a
reasonable cost to consumers. An especially important concern
is the future availability and cost of a sustainably grown biomass
By Michael Toman
supply, given the importance of biomass feedstock for renewable
liquid fuels, coal-biomass liquid blends, and electricity.
RAND economist Michael Toman specializes in climate change
None of these fossil-based or renewable fuel options alone
mitigation, sustainable development, energy markets, energy security,
is capable of making a major dent in demand for conventional
and environmental policy design.
petroleum-based fuels over the next ten or more years to enhance
energy security. Nor will pursuing all these options simultane
ously suffice. Increased energy efficiency (for example, more
nstable oil prices, rising concerns about energy secu carpooling) and greater fuel conservation (for example, less
Substituting renewable energy for fossil fuels would also A new solar power system is unveiled in Arvada, Colorado, on October 6,
help hold down the price of crude oil over time, and it would 2008. The system uses a reflective film instead of heavy, fragile, expen
sive curved glass mirrors. This technology, developed with the National
help reduce emissions of carbon dioxide. Among the renewable Renewable Energy Laboratory, helps reduce the cost of the solar field by
energy options, biomass and wind power offer the most poten 25 percent compared with previous generation systems.
W W W . R A N D . O R G R A N D R E V I E W / F A L L 2 0 0 8 27
across the three states say the test data facilitate their ability to meet
A BETTER DEAL
individual students’ learning needs. Teachers report improvements
in academic rigor, instruction, and the focus on student learning.
However, administrators are more positive about the effects
EDUCATION than are teachers. Teachers are more likely to question the validity
of state test results. Some teachers worry that the standards are too
STANDARDIZE THE GOAL,
difficult for certain students and, at the same time, that the empha
CUSTOMIZE THE STRATEGY
sis on having every student attain “proficiency” has led to a cur
riculum that is not challenging enough for high-achieving students.
A majority of teachers do not believe that the state accountability
By Brian M. Stecher and Laura S. Hamilton
systems are beneficial for students. Moreover, teachers report a vari
ety of ways in which they have narrowed their instruction to focus
Brian Stecher is a RAND social scientist. Laura Hamilton is a
on tested material, to the exclusion of topics and subject areas that
RAND behavioral scientist. Both specialize in education assessment
are not included in state tests but that nonetheless would generally
and accountability.
be viewed as critical to a well-rounded education.
No Child Left Behind has led to distinctive accountability
systems in each state: different standards, different assessments, and
ome time after the U.S. Congress reconvenes in Febru different assistance strategies. In some cases, changes may be needed
28 R A N D R E V I E W / F A L L 2 0 0 8 W W W . R A N D . O R G
A BETTER DEAL
HEALTH
USE “COMPARE” FOR BETTER
POLICYMAKING
Elizabeth McGlynn is the associate director of RAND Health. With no health insurance offered through their jobs, and no money to
purchase coverage on their own, the family of John and Delynn Gibel, of
Jeffrey Wasserman is a RAND senior policy researcher specializing Senecaville, Ohio, faced $30,000 in medical bills in 2008. The only option,
in health care reform. said John, was to declare bankruptcy.
W W W . R A N D . O R G R A N D R E V I E W / F A L L 2 0 0 8 29
Energy 2008, 134 pp., ISBN 978-0-8330-4297-2, $26.50.
A BETTER DEAL As of press time:
Impacts on U.S. Energy Expenditures and Green www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG595.3/
house-Gas Emissions of Increasing Renewable-
Related Reading Energy Use, Michael Toman, James Griffin, Robert Future U.S. Security Relationships with Iraq
J. Lempert, RAND/TR-384-1-EFC, 2008, 118 pp., and Afghanistan: U.S. Air Force Roles, David E.
ISBN 978-0-8330-4497-6, $34.50, includes CD Thaler, Theodore W. Karasik, Dalia Dassa Kaye,
Af g h a n i s t a n ROM. As of press time: Jennifer D. P. Moroney, Frederic Wehrey, Obaid
www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR384-1/ Younossi, Farhana Ali, Robert A. Guffey, RAND/
Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan: RAND Coun MG-681-AF, 2008, 182 pp., ISBN 978-0-8330
terinsurgency Study—Volume 4, Seth G. Jones, Unconventional Fossil-Based Fuels: Economic 4197-5, $32. As of press time:
RAND/MG-595-OSD, 2008, 176 pp., ISBN 978-0 and Environmental Trade-Offs, Michael Toman, www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG681/
8330-4133-3, $26.50. As of press time: Aimee Curtright, David S. Ortiz, Joel Darmstadter,
www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG595/ Brian Shannon, RAND/TR-580-NCEP, 2008, 96 pp., “Security for the Iraqis: The Forgotten Prerequi
ISBN 978-0-8330-4564-5, $37.50. As of press time: site for Getting It Right,” United Press Interna
Getting Back on Track in Afghanistan, Seth G. www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR580/ tional, September 28, 2006, Ed O’Connell.
Jones, RAND/CT-301, testimony presented before
the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Subcom Health “Too Soon to Judge the Surge,” San Diego
mittee on the Middle East and South Asia on Union-Tribune, August 29, 2008, Nora Bensahel.
April 2, 2008, 10 pp. As of press time (Web only): The Case for Keeping Quality on the Health
www.rand.org/pubs/testimonies/CT301/ Reform Agenda, Elizabeth A. McGlynn, RAND/ M i l i t a r y I n t e r ve n t i o n s
CT-306, testimony presented before the Senate
How Terrorist Groups End: Lessons for Counter Committee on Finance on June 30, 2008, 10 pp. Integrating Instruments of Power and Influence:
ing al Qa’ida, Seth G. Jones, Martin C. Libicki, As of press time (Web only): Lessons Learned and Best Practices, Robert E.
RAND/MG-741-1-RC, 2008, 250 pp., ISBN 978-0 www.rand.org/pubs/testimonies/CT306/ Hunter, Edward Gnehm, George Joulwan, RAND/
8330-4465-5, $33. As of press time: CF-251-NDF/KAF/RF/SRF, 2008, 108 pp., ISBN 978
www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG741-1/ “Who Is at Greatest Risk for Receiving Poor- 0-8330-4506-5, $35. As of press time:
Quality Health Care?” New England Journal of www.rand.org/pubs/conf_proceedings/CF251/
In the Graveyard of Empires: America’s War in Medicine, Vol. 354, No. 11, March 16, 2006, pp.
Afghanistan, Seth G. Jones, W. W. Norton, forth 1147–1156, Steven M. Asch, Eve A. Kerr, Joan A New Grand Strategy for the United States,
coming. Keesey, John L. Adams, Claude M. Setodji, Shaista Robert E. Hunter, RAND/CT-313, testimony
Malik, Elizabeth A. McGlynn. presented before the House Armed Services
Counterterrorism Committee, Subcommittee on Oversight and
The RAND COMPARE Web site: Investigations on July 31, 2008, 20 pp. As of
Unconquerable Nation: Knowing Our Enemy, www.randcompare.org/ press time (Web only):
Strengthening Ourselves, Brian Michael Jenkins, www.rand.org/pubs/testimonies/CT313/
RAND/MG-454-RC, 2006, 254 pp., ISBN 978-0 I ra n
8330-3893-7, $29.95 (hardbound), ISBN 978-0 Pa k i s t a n
8330-3891-3, $19.95 (paperback). As of press time: “American and Iranian Public Opinion: The Quest
www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG454/ for Common Grounds,” Journal of South Asian U.S.-Pakistan Relations: Assassination, Instability,
and Middle Eastern Studies, Vol. XXX, No. 3, and the Future of U.S. Policy, C. Christine Fair,
Unconquerable Nation, Volume 2: Governing Spring 2007, pp. 1–21, Clifford Grammich, C. RAND/CT-297, testimony presented before the
Principles for New Presidential Leadership in Christine Fair. Also available as RAND/RP-1261. As House Foreign Affairs Committee, Subcommit
Counterterrorism and Homeland Security, Brian of press time (Web only): tee on the Middle East and South Asia on Janu
Michael Jenkins, forthcoming. www.rand.org/pubs/reprints/RP1261/ ary 16, 2008, 15 pp. As of press time (Web only):
www.rand.org/pubs/testimonies/CT297/
E c o n o my Iran’s Political, Demographic, and Economic
Vulnerabilities, Keith Crane, Rollie Lal, Jeffrey P r o l i f e ra t i o n
U.S. Competitiveness in Science and Technology, Martini, RAND/MG-693-AF, 2008, 156 pp., ISBN
Titus Galama, James Hosek, RAND/MG-674-OSD, 978-0-8330-4304-7, $29. As of press time: The Challenge of Nuclear-Armed Regional Adver
2008, 188 pp., ISBN 978-0-8330-4424-2, $32. As www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG693/ saries, David Ochmanek, Lowell H. Schwartz,
of press time: RAND/MG-671-AF, 2008, 78 pp., ISBN 978-0
www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG674/ Negotiating with Iran, James Dobbins, RAND/ 8330-4232-3, $21. As of press time:
CT-293, testimony presented before the House www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG671/
Education Committee on Oversight and Government
Reform, Subcommittee on National Security Will Terrorists Go Nuclear? Brian Michael Jenkins,
Pain and Gain: Implementing No Child Left Behind and Foreign Affairs on November 7, 2007, 10 pp. Amherst, N.Y.: Prometheus Books, 2008, 457 pp.
in Three States, 2004–2006, Brian M. Stecher, Scott As of press time (Web only):
Epstein, Laura S. Hamilton, Julie A. Marsh, Abby www.rand.org/pubs/testimonies/CT293/ Tu r key
Robyn, Jennifer Sloan McCombs, Jennifer Russell,
Scott Naftel, RAND/MG-784-NSF, 2008, 168 pp., I ra q The Rise of Political Islam in Turkey, Angel Rabasa,
ISBN 978-0-8330-4610-9, $31.50. As of press time: F. Stephen Larrabee, RAND/MG-726-OSD, 2008,
www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG784/ After Saddam: Prewar Planning and the Occupa 134 pp., ISBN 978-0-8330-4457-0, $24.50. As of
tion of Iraq, Nora Bensahel, Olga Oliker, Keith press time:
Standards-Based Accountability Under No Crane, Richard R. Brennan Jr., Heather S. Gregg, www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG726/
Child Left Behind: Experiences of Teachers and Thomas Sullivan, Andrew Rathmell, RAND/
Administrators in Three States, Laura S. Hamil MG-642-A, 2008, 312 pp., ISBN 978-0-8330 Turkey as a U.S. Security Partner, F. Stephen Lar
ton, Brian M. Stecher, Julie A. Marsh, Jennifer 4458-7, $38. As of press time: rabee, RAND/MG-694-AF, 2008, 48 pp., ISBN 978
Sloan McCombs, Abby Robyn, Jennifer Russell, www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG642/ 0-8330-4302-3, $21. As of press time:
Scott Naftel, Heather Barney, RAND/MG-589 www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG694/
NSF, 2007, 302 pp., ISBN 978-0-8330-4149-4, Counterinsurgency in Iraq (2003–2006): RAND
$32.50. As of press time: Counterinsurgency Study—Volume 2, Bruce R. “Turkey’s Broadening Crisis,” International Herald
www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG589/ Pirnie, Edward O’Connell, RAND/MG-595/3-OSD, Tribune, July 25, 2008, F. Stephen Larrabee.
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