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Hold duration Pips risk Target pips Lot size Capital

1 hour 5 15 to 30 pips 1 lot 1000


1 to 4 days 50 150 pips 0.1 lot 1000

I based those examples roughly on how I would set my own trades up, using ATR to find typical ranges for each time period. I chose two
different examples with exactly the same R risk ratio and easy multiples of 10. The timing was based on my understanding of volatility.

For EURUSD, M5 candle range is about 4 pips usually. H1 candles range is 17 pips. These values drift over time depending on larger market
conditions. So I can reasonably expect that within 1-2 hours, I am very likely to hit the average hourly range. If I specifically identify certain tight
range breakout conditions that happen several times a day, I can even target a H4 candle's range within 30 minutes to 1 hour --which is about 32
pips currently.

Same thing for daily ranges. EURUSD AVERAGE daily range is about 75 pips currently, lately slightly elevated the past few weeks. I know
from general time-volatility relationships that twice the range requires four times the time, all other variables staying the same. So 2X daily range
will require up to 4 days for high likelihood of hitting the target, but in extreme breakout cases could be hit within one day on an extreme 2nd
standard deviation range day, which happens about 10% of the time (not 5%, per normal distribution, because price behavior is leptokurtic and
not normal).

This is a key part of volatility pricing, which the majority of traders do not understand, but is extensively used in academia and institutional quant
work. It's a basic part of the Black-Scholes model for options pricing, which is where I learned it, trading options. Unsurprisingly, this
mathematical behavior is universal across all trading instruments.

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