Accountants

Accountants
Let YY be
Let be the
theyears
years of
of professional
professional experience.
experience. Then
Then we
we are
aregiven:
given: P(MBA)
P(MBA) == 0.35,
0.35, P(Y<5)
P(Y<5) ==0.45,
0.45, and
and P(MBA
P(MBAand
an
andY<5).
and Y<5).

Therefore, P(Y>=5)
Therefore, P(Y>=5) == 11-- P(Y<5)
P(Y<5) == 11-- 0.45
0.45 ==0.55
0.55and
andP(no
P(no MBA)
MBA) ==11 -- P(MBA)
P(MBA) == 11 --0.35
0.35 == 0.65.
0.65. So,
So, the
thedesired
desiredp
P(MBA and Y<5) + P(no MBA and
P(MBA and Y<5) + P(no MBA and Y>=5). Y>=5).

Let'sconcentrate
Let's concentrate on onfinding
finding the
theP(no
P(no MBA
MBA and
and Y>=5).
Y>=5).First,
First, P(MBA
P(MBA and
and Y>=5)
Y>=5) ++ P(no
P(no MBA
MBA and
and Y>=5)
Y>=5) == P(Y>=5)
P(Y>=5
andY>=5)
and Y>=5) == 0.55
0.55 --P(no
P(no MBA
MBA andandY>=5).
Y>=5).

Furthermore, P(no
Furthermore, P(no MBA
MBA and
and Y<5)
Y<5) ++P(no
P(no MBA
MBA and
and Y>=5)
Y>=5) ==P(no
P(no MBA)
MBA) ==0.65.
0.65. But
Butfrom
fromthe
the given
giveninformation
information tt
4/3*P(MBA and
4/3*P(MBA andY>=5).
Y>=5).This
This implies
implies 4/3*P(MBA
4/3*P(MBA and
and Y>=
Y>=5)
5) ++ P(no
P(no MBA
MBA and
and Y>=
Y>= 5)
5) ==0.65.
0.65. Alternatively,
Alternatively, P(MBA
P(MBA
MBA and
MBA and Y>=5)]
Y>=5)]== 3/4(0.65)
3/4(0.65) -- 3/4P(no
3/4P(no MBA
MBA and
andY>=5).
Y>=5).

These relationships
These relationships can
canbebe used
usedto
to find
find that
that 0.55
0.55-- P(no
P(no MBA
MBA andand Y>=5)
Y>=5) == 3/4(0.65)
3/4(0.65) -- 3/4P(no
3/4P(no MBA
MBA andand Y>=5).
Y>=5).
0.75(0.65) ==0.25P(no
0.75(0.65) 0.25P(no MBA
MBA and
andY>=5).
Y>=5).Equivalently,
Equivalently, 0.25
0.25 == P(no
P(no MBA
MBA and
and Y>=5)
Y>=5) which
which implies
implies that
that P(MBA
P(MBA and
and
But P(MBA
But P(MBA andand Y<5)
Y<5) == P(MBA)
P(MBA) --P(MBA
P(MBA and and Y>=5)
Y>=5) == 0.35
0.35-- 0.30
0.30 ==0.05.
0.05.

Finally, the
Finally, thedesired
desiredprobability
probabilityis0.05
is0.05++ 0.25
0.25 ==0.30.
0.30.
Analternative
An alternative more
morevisual
visual approach
approach isis toto draw
draw aarectangle
rectangle as
as shown
shown below
below and
andtry
try to
to fill
fill in
in the
the pieces,
pieces, using
using th t
problem. But basically the same calculations are still necessary. (The diagram below isn't drawn to scale, i.e., iti
problem. But basically the same calculations are still necessary. (The diagram below isn't drawn to scale, i.e.,
probabilitiescorrectly,
probabilities correctly, but
butitit gets
gets you
you started.)
started.)

MBA, Y<5 MBA, Y>=5

no MBA, Y<5 no MBA, Y>=5

 = 0.35,
0.35, P(Y<5)
P(Y<5) ==0.45,
0.45, and
and P(MBA
P(MBAand
andY>=5)
Y>=5) == 0.75
0.75 **P(no
P(no MBA
MBA

A) == 11 --0.35
A) 0.35 == 0.65.
0.65. So,
So, the
thedesired
desiredprobability
probabilityisisthe
the sum
sumof
of

=5) ++ P(no
=5) P(no MBA
MBA and
and Y>=5)
Y>=5) == P(Y>=5)
P(Y>=5) ==0.55.
0.55. Alternatively,
Alternatively, P(MBA
P(MBA

65. But
65. Butfrom
fromthe
the given
giveninformation
information that
that P(no
P(no MBA
MBA and
andY<5)
Y<5) ==
dd Y>=
Y>= 5)
5) ==0.65.
0.65. Alternatively,
Alternatively, P(MBA
P(MBA and
and Y>=5)
Y>=5) ==3/4[0.65
3/4[0.65 -- P(no
P(no

3/4(0.65)
/4(0.65) -- 3/4P(no
3/4P(no MBA
MBA andand Y>=5).
Y>=5). This
Thisreduces
reduces toto0.55
0.55 --
Y>=5) which
Y>=5) which implies
implies that
that P(MBA
P(MBA and
andY>=5)
Y>=5) == 0.55
0.55 -- 0.25
0.25 == 0.30.
0.30.

w and
w andtry
try to
to fill
fill in
in the
the pieces,
pieces, using
using thethe information
informationgiven
givenin
inthe
the
am below isn't drawn to scale, i.e., it doesn't represent
am below isn't drawn to scale, i.e., it doesn't represent the the