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تمارين محلولة في الاحتمالات PDF
تمارين محلولة في الاحتمالات PDF
ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ:1
ﺍﻟﺟﺯءﻳﻥ 1ﻭ 2ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ ﻳﻣﻛﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﻟﺟﺔ ﻛﻝ ﻣﻧﻬﻣﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺩﺓ .ﺗﻌﻁﻰ ﺍﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻛﻝ ﻛﺳﻭﺭ.
.1ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ Xﻫﻭ ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻳﺭﻓﻖ ﺑﻛﻝ ﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭ ﺳﻌﺭ ﺗﺫﻛﺭﺗﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎﺭ.
ﺃ( ﺗﻌﻳﻳﻥ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ . X
7ﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ 16ﻳﺗﺟﻬﻭﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻁﺔ Bﺣﻳﺙ ﺳﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺗﺫﻛﺭﺓ ﻫﻭ 50ﺩﻳﻧﺎﺭ .
7
. p(X 50) ﺇﺫﻥ:
16
1
ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ Xﻫﻭ:
ﺏ( ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﺍﺗﺟﺎﻩ ﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻝ ﻫﻭ ﻧﺣﻭ ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻁﺔ .B
ﻧﻌﺗﺑﺭ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ Wﻭﻫﻲ " :ﻻ ﺃﺣﺩ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭﻳﻥ ﺍﻟﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻣﺗﺟﻪ ﻧﺣﻭ ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻁﺔ " B
ﻋﻧﺩﺋﺫ ﺗﻛﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ﺍﻟﻧﺎﻓﻳﺔ ﻟﻬﺎ ﻭﻫﻲ " : Wﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﺍﺗﺟﺎﻩ ﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻝ ﻫﻭ ﻧﺣﻭ ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻁﺔ " B
( )3
9
. p(W)= 16 = 3 ﻧﻌﻠﻡ ّ
ﺃﻥ 9ﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭﻳﻥ ﻟﻬﻡ ﺍﺗﺟﺎﻩ ﻏﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻁﺔ ،Bﻭﻣﻧﻪ
( 3 ) 20
3 17
p(W) = 1- p(W)=1- = ﻭﻣﻧﻪ
20 20
ﺇﺫﻥ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﺍﺗﺟﺎﻩ ﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻝ ﻫﻭ ﻧﺣﻭ ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻁﺔ Bﻫﻭ. p(W) = 17 :
20
ﺝ( ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﺍﺗﺟﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭﻳﻥ ﺍﻟﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻁﺔ ،Bﻋﻠﻣﺎ ﺃﻧّﻬﻡ ﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭﻳﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻔﺱ
ﺍﻻﺗﺟﺎﻩ .
2
* ﻧﺣﺳﺏ ّﺃﻭﻻ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ) p(Eﻟﻠﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ " : Eﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﻟﻠﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭﻳﻥ ﺍﻟﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻧﻔﺱ ﺍﻻﺗﺟﺎﻩ."
ﺃﻱ ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻁﺔ Bﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻁﺔ Cﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻁﺔ .Dﻭﻫﻲ ﺃﺣﺩﺍﺙ ﻏﻳﺭ ﻣﺗﻼﺋﻣﺔ ﻭﻣﻧﻪ:
( )3
7
( )3
5
( )3
4
= p(E)= 16 + 16 + 16
7
( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) 80
* ﻧﺣﺳﺏ ﺛﺎﻧﻳﺎ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ) p(Fﻟﻠﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ " : Fﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﺍﺗﺟﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭﻳﻥ ﺍﻟﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻁﺔ " B
( )3
7
= p(F)= 16
35
=
1
( 3 ) 560 16
ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ " ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﺍﺗﺟﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭﻳﻥ ﺍﻟﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻁﺔ ،Bﻋﻠﻣﺎ ﺃﻧّﻬﻡ ﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭﻳﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻔﺱ ﺍﻻﺗﺟﺎﻩ"
ﺗﻭﺍﻓﻖ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺷﺭﻁﻲ ) . pE (Fﺑﺎﻟﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﻧﺟﺩ . p E (F)= p (F Ç E) = p (F) = 5 :
)p (E )p (E 7
ﺗﻣر ن :2
.1ﻋّﻠم ﻞ اﻟﻣو ِ
اﺿﻊ اﻟﺗﻲ ﻣ ن ﻟﻬذﻩ اﻟﻧﻘطﺔ أن ﺗﺻﻞ إﻟﯾﻬﺎ ﻌد ﻗﻔزﺗﯾن. ََ
ﻋدد ،ﺎﻟﻧﺳ ﺔ إﻟﻰ ﻞ ﻣوﺿﻊ ،ﻋدد اﻟطرق اﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﺻﻞ ﺑﻬﺎ اﻟﻧﻘطﺔ إﻟﻰ ﻫذا اﻟﻣوﺿﻊ. ِ
ّ
.2اﺣﺳب اﺣﺗﻣﺎل اﻟﺣﺎدﺛﺔ " ﻣوﺿﻊ اﻟﻧﻘطﺔ ﻌد ﻗﻔزﺗﯾن ﻫو اﻟﻣﺑدأ " O
ﺣ ّﻝ:-2-
.1ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺍﺿﻊ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻳﻣﻛﻥ ﻟﻠﻧﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻭﻝ ﺇﻟﻳﻬﺎ ﻣﻭﺿﺣﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻣﺧﻁﻁ ﺍﻵﺗﻲ :
3
ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﺻﻝ ﺑﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻧﻘﻁﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻛﻝ ﻣﻭﺿﻊ ﻣﺳﺟﻝ ﺑﺟﺎﻧﺏ ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺿﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻣﺧﻁﻁ ﺃﻋﻼﻩ .ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻉ
ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻕ ﻫﻭ .16
.2ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ " ﻣﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﻟﻧﻘﻁﺔ ﺑﻌﺩ ﻗﻔﺯﺗﻳﻥ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺩﺃ " O
ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ 16ﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ ﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ ﻫﻧﺎﻙ 4ﻁﺭﻕ ﺗﻭﺍﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ﺍﻟﻣﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻟﻬﺎ ،ﻣﻧﻪ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ
4 1
. ﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ﻫﻭ= :
16 4
ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ :3
ﺃﻥ 95% ﻣﻥ ﺃﺟﻬﺯﺓ ﺍﻟﻐﺳﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﺻﻧﻌﻬﺎ ﻣﺅﺳﺳﺔ ﺻﻧﺎﻋﻳﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺩﻟﺕ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺇﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ّ
ﺗﺷﻐﻳﻝ .ﺗﻡ ﺇﺧﺿﺎﻉ ﻫﺫﻩ ﻏﺳﺎﻻﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻣﺅﺳﺳﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ ﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺔ ،ﻓﻛﺎﻧﺕ ﺍﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ ﻛﻣﺎ ﻳﺄﺗﻲ:
ﻋﻧﺩﻣﺎ ﺗﻛﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻐﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺗﺷﻐﻳﻝ ،ﻓﻬﻲ ﻣﻘﺑﻭﻟﺔ ﺑﻧﺳﺑﺔ 96 %ﻋﻧﺩ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ .
ﻋﻧﺩﻣﺎ ﻻ ﺗﻛﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻐﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺗﺷﻐﻳﻝ ،ﻓﻬﻲ ﻣﻘﺑﻭﻟﺔ ﺑﻧﺳﺑﺔ 8 %ﻋﻧﺩ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ .
ﻧﺧﺗﺎﺭ ﻋﺷﻭﺍﺋﻳﺎ ﻏﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻐﺳﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﺻﻧﻌﻬﺎ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻣﺅﺳﺳﺔ .ﻭﻧﻌﺭﻑ ﺍﻷﺣﺩﺍﺙ ﺍﻵﺗﻳﺔ:
ﺍﻟﺣﺩﺙ " : Fﺍﻟﻐﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﺷﺗﻐﺎﻝ "
ﻧﻌﻠﻡ ﺃﻳﺿﺎ ّ
ﺃﻥ .
.1ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻻ ﺗﻛﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻐﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﺷﺗﻐﺎﻝ ﻫﻭ ) ، p (Fﺣﻳﺙ . p(F) = 1 - p(F) = 0,05
.2ﺃ( ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺭﻓﺽ ﺍﻟﻐﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ ،ﻋﻠﻣﺎ ﺃﻧّﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﺷﺗﻐﺎﻝ ﻫﻭ :
ﺍﻟﻣﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺳﺅﺍﻝ ﻫﻭ ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ) (T/Fﺃﻱ ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ) ، p F (Tﻭﻣﻧﻪ
ﺏ( ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺭﻓﺽ ﺍﻟﻐﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ ﻭﻫﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﺷﺗﻐﺎﻝ ﻫﻭ:
ﺍﻟﻣﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺳﺅﺍﻝ ﻫﻭ ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ) (T Ç Fﺃﻱ ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ، p(T Ç Fﻭﻣﻧﻪ:
p (T Ç F) =p F (T )´ p (F) = 0,04 ´ 0,95 = 0,038
ﺟـ( ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺭﻓﺽ ﺍﻟﻐﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ ﻭﻫﻲ ﻟﻳﺳﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﺷﺗﻐﺎﻝ ﻫﻭ:
ﺍﻟﻣﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺳﺅﺍﻝ ﻫﻭ ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ) (T Ç Fﺃﻱ ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ) ، p(T Ç Fﻭﻣﻧﻪ:
ﻭﻣﻧﻪ . p (T ) =0,038+0,046=0,084
5
.4ﺗﻡ ﺭﻓﺽ ﻏﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ ،ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻛﻭﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺧﻳﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﺷﺗﻐﺎﻝ؟
ﺍﻟﻣﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺳﺅﺍﻝ ﻫﻭ ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ) (F/Tﺃﻱ ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ) ، pT (Fﻭﻣﻧﻪ ﻧﺟﺩ:
P(F Ç T) 0,038
=) . pT (F = » 0,452
)P(T 0,084
ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ :4
ﺍﻷﻭﻝ:
ﺍﻟﺟﺯء ّ
ﻳﺣﺗﻭﻱ ﻭﻋﺎء ﻋﻠﻰ nﻛﺮﺓ ﺑﻴﻀﺎء ) nﻋﺪﺩ ﻁﺒﻴﻌﻲ( ﻭ 5ﻛﺮﺍﺕ ﺣﻤﺮﺍء ﻭ 3ﻛﺮﺍﺕ ﺧﻀﺮﺍء .ﻧﺳﺣﺏ ﻣﻧﻪ
ﻋﺷﻭﺍﺋﻳﺎ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺁﻥ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ.
.1ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺻﻭﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﺑﻳﺿﺎﻭﻳﻥ؟
.2ﻧﺮﻣﺰ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ ) P(nﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﺮﺗﻴﻦ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ.
)(n ² - n + 26
=) .P(n ﺃ( ﺃﺛﺒﺖ ّ
ﺃﻥ :
)(n + 8)(n + 7
ﺳﺭ ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ. ، nlimﻓ ّ
+ ¥
ﺏ( ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ) P(n
ﺍﻟﺟﺯء ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻧﻲ:
ﻧﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺟﺯء ّ
ﺃﻥ .n = 4
.1ﺍﺣﺴﺐ ).p(4
.2ﻧﺴﻤﻲ ﺳﺤﺒﺎ ﻛﻞ ﺳﺤﺐ ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ﻟﻜﺮﺗﻴﻦ ﻓﻲ ﺁﻥ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻮﻋﺎء.
ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﻻﻋﺐ ﺑﺈﻧﺠﺎﺯ ﺳﺤﺒﻴﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﻴﻦ ﻋﻦ ﺑﻌﻀﻬﻤﺎ ﺑﺤﻴﺚ ﻳﻌﻴﺪ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻮﻋﺎء ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺗﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺤﻮﺑﺘﻴﻦ ﻣﻨﻪ ﻓﻲ
ﺍﻷﻭﻝ.
ﺍﻟﺴﺤﺐ ّ
ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺇﺟﺮﺍء ﻫﺬﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﺤﺒﻴﻦ ﻳﺪﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﻼﻋﺐ ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺎ ﻣﺒﻠﻐﺎ ﻗﺪﺭﻩ 30ﺩﻳﻨﺎﺭﺍ ،ﻭﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﻛﻞ ﺳﺤﺐ ﻳﺘﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ
40ﺩﻳﻨﺎﺭ ﺇﻥ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺗﺎﻥ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ،ﻭﻳﺘﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ 5ﺩﻧﺎﻧﻴﺮ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺇﻥ ﻛﺎﻧﺘﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻟﻮﻧﻴﻦ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﻴﻦ.
ﻧﺴﻤﻲ ﺭﺑﺤﺎ ﻟﻬﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻼﻋﺐ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺭﻕ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﺤﺒﻴﻦ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺒﻠﻎ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺩﻓﻌﻪ ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺎ
)ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺢ ﻣﻮﺟﺒﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺳﺎﻟﺒﺎ(.
ﻧﻌﺮﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ Xﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺮﻓﻖ ﺑﻜﻞ ﺳﺤﺒﻴﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﻴﻦ ﺭﺑﺢ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻼﻋﺐ.
ﺃ( ﻣﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ X؟
ﺏ( ﻋﻴﻦ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ . X
ﺝ( ﺍﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻷﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺭﻳﺎﺿﻳﺎﺗﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ . X
6
ﺣﻞ:◌ّ - 4 -
ﺍﻷﻭﻝ:
ﺍﻟﺠﺰء ّ
.1ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺳﺤﺐ ﻛﺮﺗﻴﻦ ﻣﻦ ﻟﻮﻥ ﺃﺑﻴﺾ.
ﻧﻌﺮﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺩﺛﺔ » : Bﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﻟﻭﻥ ﺃﺑﻳﺽ «
ّ
ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻹﻣﻛﺎﻧﻳﺎﺕ ﻫﻲ ﺗﻭﻓﻳﻘﺎﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ n+8ﻛﺭﺓ ،ﻣﻧﻪ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻣﻛﻧﺔ ﻫﻭ :
)(n + 8)(n + 7
= . C2n +8
2
ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﻫﻮ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻓﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻛﺮﺗﻴﻦ ﺑﻴﻀﺎﻭﻳﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻴﻦ nﻛﺮﺓ ﺑﻴﻀﺎء ﺃﻱ ﻫﻮ :
)n (n -1
= .C2n
2
)(n ² - n + 26
=) .P(n .2ﺃ( ﺇﺛﺒﺎﺕ ّ
ﺃﻥ :
)(n + 8)(n + 7
ﻧﻌﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺗﻳﻥ » : Rﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﺣﻣﺭﺍﻭﻳﻥ «
ّ
ﻭ » :Vﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﺧﺿﺭﺍﻭﻳﻥ«
C52 20
= P(R) = 2 ﺇﺫﻥ ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ:
)Cn +8 (n + 8)(n + 7
C32 6
= . P(V) = 2 ﻭ
)Cn +8 (n + 8)(n + 7
ﻧﻌﻠﻡ ّ
ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺣﺩﺍﺙ V ،R ،Bﻣﻧﻔﺻﻠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺑﻌﺿﻬﺎ ﻣﺛﻧﻰ ﻣﺛﻧﻰ،
ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ﻳﻧﺗﺞ:
)P(n ) = P(B)+P(R)+P(V
7
n ² - n + 26
= ) (1)......... P(n ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ﻧﺟﺩ:
)(n + 8)(n + 7
. nlim
+ ¥
ﺑﺎﻟﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺎﺷﺭ ﻧﺟﺩP(n )=1 :
ﺳﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻧّﻪ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺿﺎء ﻛﺑﻳﺭ ﺑﻣﺎ ﻓﻳﻪ ﻛﻔﺎﻳﺔ ،ﻓﺈﻧّﻧﺎ ﻧﻧﺗﻅﺭ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻛﻭﻥ
ﺗﻔ ّ
ﻭﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺷﺑﻪ ﻣﺅﻛﺩﺓ. ﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺳﺣﺏ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺣﺻﻭﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﺑﻳﺿﺎﻭﻳﻥّ .
ﺍﻟﺟﺯء ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻧﻲ:
ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ .n = 4
"X = -20" ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﺍﻟﻼﻋﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﻟﻭﻧﻳﻥ ﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﻳﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻼ ﺍﻟﺳﺣﺑﻳﻥ
) (‐20 = ‐30 + 5 + 5
ﺏ( ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ . X
ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ ﻓﺮﺿﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﺤﺒﻴﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﻴﻦ ﻋﻦ ﺑﻌﻀﻬﻤﺎ ﺇﺫﻥ ﻳﻨﺘﺞ:
8
æ 47 ö÷2 2209
= ÷÷ P(X=20)= ççç P(X=20)=(1-P(4))² ﻭﻣﻧﻪ:
è 66 ø 4356
ﺝ( ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺭﻳﺎﺿﻳﺎﺗﻲ ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ . X
E(X) = å P(X = k ) ´ k ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ:
}k Î{50,15,20
ﻧﺭﻳﺩ ﺍﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻳﺔ ﺩﻭﺍء ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ ﻣﻌﻁﻰ .ﺭﺑﻊ ﺃﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ ﺗ ّﻡ ﺗﻁﻌﻳﻣﻬﻡ ﺑﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺍء.
ﺃﺛﻧﺎء ﺗﺑّﻳﻥ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺗﺭﺓ ﺍﻧﺗﺷﺎﺭ ﻭﺑﺎء ﻣﻌﻳّﻥ ّ
ﺃﻥ ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ ﻛﻝ 10ﻣﺭﺿﻰ ﻣﺻﺎﺑﻭﻥ ﺑﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻭﺑﺎء ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻓﻘﻁ ﻣﻧﻬﻡ
ﻣﻁﻌّﻡ ،ﻭﺗﺑﻳّﻥ ﺃﻳﺿﺎ ّ
ﺃﻥ 1/9ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻣﻁﻌّﻣﻳﻥ ﻫﻡ ﻣﺭﺿﻰ ﺑﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻭﺑﺎء.
ﻧﺭﻣﺯ ﺑﺎﻟﺭﻣﺯ M ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ » :ﺍﻟﺷﺧﺹ ﻣﺭﻳﺽ « ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺭﻣﺯ Vﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ » :ﺍﻟﺷﺧﺹ ﻣﻁﻌّﻡ«
5
= ) . P(M .1ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ) ، P(M Ç Vﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺷﺧﺹ ﺍﻟﻣﺧﺗﺎﺭ ﻣﺭﻳﺽ ﻭﻣﻁﻌّﻡ .ﺍﺳﺗﻧﺗﺞ ّ
ﺃﻥ
18
ﺣ ّﻝ:- 5 -
5
= ). P(M .1ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ) P(M Ç Vﻭ ﺍﺳﺗﻧﺗﺎﺝ ّ
ﺃﻥ
18
ﻧﺑﺩﺃ ﺑﺗﺭﺟﻣﺔ ﻣﻌﻁﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺄﻟﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻟﻐﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ.
1
= ) . P(V ﺭﺑﻊ ﺃﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ ﺗ ّﻡ ﺗﻁﻌﻳﻣﻬﻡ ﺑﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺍء ،ﺇﺫﻥ:
4
1
= ) . PM (V ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ ﻛﻝ 10ﻣﺭﺿﻰ ﻣﺻﺎﺑﻭﻥ ﺑﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻭﺑﺎء ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻓﻘﻁ ﻣﻧﻬﻡ ﻣﻁﻌّﻡ،ﺇﺫﻥ
10
1
1/9 ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻣﻁﻌّﻣﻳﻥ ﻫﻡ ﻣﺭﺿﻰ ﺑﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻭﺑﺎء ،ﺇﺫﻥ . PV (M) = :
9
1 1 1
= ´ = ). P(V Ç M) = P (V) ´ PV (M ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ﻣﻥ ﺟﻬﺔ،
4 9 36
9
ﻭﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ﻣﻥ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺃﺧﺭﻯ، P(V Ç M) = PM (V) ´ P(M) ،
1
P(V Ç M) 36 5
= ). P(M = = ﻣﻧﻪ ﻧﺟﺩ
)PM (V 1 18
10
9 5 1
=) P(M Ç V = ´ ﻣﻧﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﺗﻌﻭﻳﺽ ﻧﺟﺩ
10 18 4
1
P(M Ç V ) 4 1
= ) . PV (M ﻭﻧﺳﺗﻧﺗﺞ ّ
ﺃﻥ = =
)P(V 3 3
4
ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ :7
ﻳﻘﺗﺭﺡ ﺑﺎﺋﻊ ﻣﺛﻠﺟﺎﺕ 10ﻧﻛﻬﺎﺕ ﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ ﻟﻣﺛﻠﺟﺎﺗﻪ .ﻳﻘﻭﻡ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺃﺷﺧﺎﺹ ﻛﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺩﺓ ﺑﺎﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ﻧﻛﻬﺔ
ﻟﻣﺛﻠﺟﺔ ﻳﺗﻧﺎﻭﻟﻬﺎ.
.1ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ" A :ﻳﺧﺗﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺷﺧﺎﺹ ﺍﻟﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻧﻛﻬﺎﺕ ﻣﺗﻣﺎﻳﺯﺓ ﻣﺛﻧﻰ ﻣﺛﻧﻰ"
.2ﻟﻳﻛﻥ Xﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻳﺣﺻﻲ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻧﻛﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﺧﺗﺎﺭ ﻣﻥ ﻗﺑﻝ ﺍﻷﺷﺧﺎﺹ ﺍﻟﺛﻼﺛﺔ .
ﻋﻳّﻥ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ ،Xﺛ ّﻡ ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﻷﻣﻝ ﺍﻟﺭﻳﺎﺿﻳﺎﺗﻲ ﻟﻪ ﻭ ﻓ ّ
ﺳﺭ ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ.
ﺣ ّﻝ:- 7 -
10
ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻭﺍﻟﺛﺎﻧﻲ ،ﺗﻭﺟﺩ 10ﺇﻣﻛﺎﻧﻳﺎﺕ ﻻﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ﻧﻛﻬﺔ ﻣﻥ ﻗﺑﻝ ﺍﻟﺷﺧﺹ ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻟﺙ.
ﻣﻥ ﺃﺟﻝ ﻛﻝ ﺍﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ﻟﻠﺷﺧﺻﻳﻥ ّ
ﺇﺫﻥ ﻫﻧﺎﻟﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻉ 10 ´10 ´10ﺃﻱ 103ﺇﻣﻛﺎﻧﻳﺔ ﻻﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ﺛﻼﺙ ﻧﻛﻬﺎﺕ ﻣﻥ ﻗﺑﻝ ﺍﻷﺷﺧﺎﺹ ﺍﻟﺛﻼﺛﺔ.
ﻣﻧﻪ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻣﻛﻧﺔ ﻫﻭ .1000
ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﺍﺧﺗﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻧﻛﻬﺔ ، gﻭﺍﻟﺛﺎﻧﻲ ﺍﺧﺗﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻧﻛﻬﺔ a ﻭﺍﻟﺛﺎﻟﺙ ﺍﺧﺗﺎﺭ ﻣﺛﻼ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻣﺔ gagﺗﻌﻧﻲ ّ
ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺷﺧﺹ ّ
ﺍﻟﻧﻛﻬﺔ . g
720
= ) . P (A ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ﻧﺟﺩ = 0, 72
1000
11
720
= ) P ( X = 3) = P ( A ﺍﻷﻭﻝ= 0, 72 ،
ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﺳﺅﺍﻝ ّ
1000
ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ P ( X = 2) = 1 - 0, 01 - 0, 72 = 0, 27
ﻣﻼﺣﻅﺔ:
ﻳﻣﻛﻧﻧﺎ ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ) P ( X = 2ﻣﺑﺎﺷﺭﺓ.
ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑﺔ ﻫﻭ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺋﻡ ﺫﺍﺕ 3ﻋﻧﺎﺻﺭ ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ 10ﺑﺣﻳﺙ ﻳﺗﻛﺭﺭ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ﺣﺭﻑ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ
ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻭ 9ﺇﻣﻛﺎﻧﻳﺎﺕ ﻻﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺣﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻧﻲ .ﻧﻌﻠﻡ ّ
ﺃﻥ ﻟﻠﺣﺭﻑ ﻏﻳﺭ ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ 10ﺇﻣﻛﺎﻧﻳﺎﺕ ﻻﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺣﺭﻑ ّ
ﺍﻟﻣﻛﺭﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻣﺔ 3ﻣﻭﺍﺿﻊ ﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺋﻡ ﻫﻭ 10 9 3 270 :
270
. P (X = )= 2 = 0, 27 ﻣﻧﻪ
1000
12
ﺳﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ّ
ﺃﻥ ﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻧﻛﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻳﺗﻡ ﺍﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﻣﻥ ﻗﺑﻝ ﺍﻷﺷﺧﺎﺹ ﺍﻟﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺗﻔ ّ
ﻫﻭ ﻗﺭﻳﺏ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ .3ﺃﻱ ّ
ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ ﺍﻷﻛﺛﺭ ﺣﻅﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﻫﻲ ﺍﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ 3ﻧﻛﻬﺎﺕ ﻣﺗﻣﺎﻳﺯﺓ ﻣﺛﻧﻰ ﻣﺛﻧﻰ .
.1ﻳﺣﺗﻭﻱ ﻭﻋﺎء ﻋﻠﻰ 12ﻛﺭﺓ 4ﻣﻧﻬﺎ ﺣﻣﺭﺍء ﻭ 4ﺧﺿﺭﺍء ﻭ 4ﺑﻳﺿﺎء ،ﻧﺳﺣﺏ ﻋﺷﻭﺍﺋﻳﺎ ﻭﻓﻲ ﺁﻥ
ﻭﺍﺣﺩ 5ﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻭﻋﺎء .ﻟﻳﻛﻥ Xﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻳﺭﻓﻖ ﺑﻛﻝ ﺳﺣﺏ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺣﻣﺭﺍء
ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺣﻭﺑﺔ .
ﻋﻳّﻥ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ Xﻭﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﻷﻣﻝ ﺍﻟﺭﻳﺎﺿﻳﺎﺗﻲ ﻟﻪ ،ﺛ ّﻡ ﺗﺭﺟﻡ ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ .
ﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﺗﺗﺎﻟﻳﺔ ﺑﺣﻳﺙ ﻧﻌﻳﺩ ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺣﻭﺑﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ .2ﻧﻛﺭﺭ ﻋﻣﻠﻳﺔ ﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺓ ﻣﻥ ﻧﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﻭﻋﺎء ّ 5
ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻧﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ
ﺍﻟﻭﻋﺎء ﻗﺑﻝ ﺍﻟﺳﺣﺏ ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺍﻟﻲ .ﻭﻟﻳﻛﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ Yﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻳﺣﺻﻲ ﻋﺩﺩ ّ
ﻛﺭﺓ ﺣﻣﺭﺍء .
ﻋﻳّﻥ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ Yﻭﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﻷﻣﻝ ﺍﻟﺭﻳﺎﺿﻳﺎﺗﻲ ﻟﻪ ،ﺛ ّﻡ ﺗﺭﺟﻡ ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ.
ﺣ ّﻝ:- 8 -
æ4ö
ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻕ ﻻﺧﺗﺎﺭ kﻛﺭﺓ ﺣﻣﺭﺍء ﻣﻊ (k {0 ; 1 ; 2 ; 3 ; 4}) ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ 4ﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﻫﻭ ççç ÷÷÷ :
÷çèk ø
÷æ 8 ö
çç ÷ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻕ ﻻﺧﺗﺎﺭ 5-kﻛﺭﺓ ﻟﻳﺳﺕ ﺣﻣﺭﺍء ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ 8ﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺑﺎﻗﻳﺔ ﻫﻭ:
çè5 - k ÷÷ø
165 5
= E (X ) = å pi x i = . X ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﻣﻝ ﺍﻟﺭﻳﺎﺿﻳﺎﺗﻲ ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ
i 99 3
13
ﺗﺭﺟﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ :ﻣﻌﺩﻝ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺣﻣﺭﺍء ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻧﺣﺻﻝ ﻋﻠﻳﻬﺎ ﺑﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ ﻫﻭ ) . 5 ( 1, 67
3
1
ﻣﻧﻪ ﻳﻧﺗﺞ Y B (5; ) :
3
1 5
= ´E (Y ) = np = 5 ﺍﻷﻣﻝ ﺍﻟﺭﻳﺎﺿﻳﺎﺗﻲ ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ Yﻫﻭ:
3 3
ﻣﻌﺩﻝ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺣﻣﺭﺍء ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻧﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﻋﻠﻳﻬﺎ ﺑﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺳﺣﺏ ) 5 ( 1, 67ﻫﻭ .
3
ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ :9
ﺑﺎﻉ ﻣﺣﻝ ﻟﻸﺟﻬﺯﺓ ﺍﻟﻛﻬﺭﻭﻣﻧﺯﻟﻳﺔ 4ﺛﻼّﺟﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻳﻭﻡ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻣﺿﻣﻭﻧﺔ ﻟﻣﺩّﺓ 5ﺳﻧﻭﺍﺕ .ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻻ ﺗﺗﻌﻁﻝ
ﻛﻝ ﺛﻼﺟﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺗﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺿﻣﺎﻥ ﻫﻭ . 0,9
14
ﺣ ّﻝ:- 9 -
ﻧﻌﺗﺑﺭ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺗﻌﻁﻝ ﺛﻼﺟﺔ )ﻣﺧﺭﺝ ﻟﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ( ﻭﺗﻌﻁﻠﻬﺎ )ﻣﺧﺭﺝ ﺛﺎﻥ ﻟﻧﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ( ﻓﺈﺫﻥ ﻧﺣﻥ ﻫﻧﺎ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ
ﺑﺭﻧﻭﻟﻲ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻳﻁ . p = 0,9
çèk ÷ø
çè4÷ø
ّ
ﺗﺗﻌﻁﻝ ﺛﻼﺟﺗﺎﻥ ﻓﻘﻁ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺗﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺿﻣﺎﻥ . .2ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ
ﺗﺗﻌﻁﻝ ﺛﻼﺟﺗﺎﻥ ﻓﻘﻁ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺗﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺿﻣﺎﻥ ﻳﺳﺎﻭﻱ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻻ ﺗﺗﻌﻁﻝ ﺛﻼﺟﺗﺎﻥ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺗﺭﺓ ّ ّ
ﺇﻥ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ
ﺍﻟﺿﻣﺎﻥ ،ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻳﻁﺎﺑﻖ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ k = 2ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﺎﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﻫﻭ P (X = 2) :
æ4ö
ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ﻧﺟﺩ . P (X = 2) = çç ÷÷÷(0,9) (0,1) = 6 ´(0,09) 0,0486 :
2 2 2
÷çè2ø
ﻳﻘﻭﻡ ُﻣ َﻣ ْ ّﻭﻥ ﺑﺑﻳﻊ ﻧﻭﻋﻳﻥ ﺃﺳﻼﻙ C1ﻭ ،C2ﺑﺣﻳﺙ ﺗﺗﺿﻣﻥ ﻛﻝ ﺷﺣﻧﺔ ﻳﺑﻳﻌﻬﺎ 20%ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ C1
ﻭ 80% ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ .C2
ﺍﻟﺟﺯءﺍﻥ )ﺃ( ﻭ)ﺏ( ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻼﻥ ﻋﻥ ﺑﻌﺿﻬﻣﺎ.
ﺍﻟﺟﺯء )ﺃ(:
ﻻ ﻳﻁﻠﺏ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺟﺯء ﺃﻱ ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺗﻘﺭﻳﺑﻲ.
ﺗﺗﻛﻭﻥ 50ﺳﻠﻛﺎ.
ﻧﺄﺧﺫ ﻋﺷﻭﺍﺋﻳﺎ 4ﺃﺳﻼﻙ ﻣﻥ ﺷﺣﻧﺔ ّ
15
(2ﺃﻋﻁ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ :F
» ﻧﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠﻙ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ C1ﻭ 3ﺃﺳﻼﻙ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ « C2
(3ﺃﻋﻁ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ » :G ﻧﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠﻙ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻝ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ « C1
ﺍﻟﺟﺯء )ﺏ(:
ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺟﺯء ﻧﺄﺧﺫ ﻋﺷﻭﺍﺋﻳﺎ ﺳﻠﻛﺎ ﻭﺍﺣﺩﺍ ﻣﻥ ﺷﺣﻧﺔ ﻭﻧﺳﺟﻝ ﻧﻭﻋﻪ ﺛ ّﻡ ﻧﻌﻳﺩﻩ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺷﺣﻧﺔ .ﻧﺭﻣﺯ ﻟﻬﺫﻩ
ﻣﺭﺓ .ﻟﻳﻛﻥ Xﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻷﺳﻼﻙ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ C1ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻧﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﻋﻠﻳﻬﺎ ﺑﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺭﻣﺯ Eﻭﻧﻛﺭﺭﻫﺎ ّ n
ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ.
ﺃﻥ . n = 4ﺗﻌﻁﻰ ﺍﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ ﺑﺗﻘﺭﻳﺏ ﻗﺩﺭﻩ 10-4ﺑﺎﻟﻧﻘﺻﺎﻥ . (1ﻧﻔﺭﺽ ّ
ﺃ( ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺻﻭﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠﻛﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ .C1
ﺏ( ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺻﻭﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠﻙ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻝ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ .C1
ﺝ( ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﻷﻣﻝ ﺍﻟﺭﻳﺎﺿﻳﺎﺗﻲ ) .E(X
(2ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺳﺅﺍﻝ n ﻣﺟﻬﻭﻝ .
ﺃ( ﻋﺑّﺭ ﻋﻥ ) P (X 1ﺑﺩﻻﻟﺔ .n
ﻣﺭﺓ ﻳﺟﺏ ﺗﻛﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ Eﺣﺗﻰ ﻧﺳﺗﻁﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻝ ﺃﻧّﻧﺎ ﻣﺗﺄﻛﺩﻳﻥ ﺑﻧﺳﺑﺔ 90% ﻣﻥ ﺃﻧّﻧﺎ ﺏ( ﻛﻡ ﻣﻥ ّ
ﺳﻧﺣﺻﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠﻙ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻝ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ C1؟
ﺏ( ﺍﻟﺑﺣﺙ ﻋﻥ nﻋﺩﺩ ﺗﻛﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ Eﺣﺗﻰ ﻧﺳﺗﻁﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻝ ﺑﺄﻧّﻧﺎ ﻣﺗﺄﻛﺩﻳﻥ ﺑﻧﺳﺑﺔ 90% ﻣﻥ
ﺃﻧّﻧﺎ ﺳﻧﺣﺻﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠﻙ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻝ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ C1؟
ﺍﻟﺑﺣﺙ nﻋﻥ ﻳﻌﻭﺩ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺣﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﺗﺭﺍﺟﺣﺔ . P ( X 1) 0, 9
ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎP ( X 1) 0, 9 :
ln 0,1
n³ ﻭﺣﻳﺙ ln 0,8 < 0ﻧﺟﺩ
ln 0,8
16
ln 0,1
ﺑﺗﻘﺭﻳﺏ ﻗﺩﺭﻩ 10‐2ﺑﺎﻟﻧﻘﺻﺎﻥ ﻭ nﻋﺩﺩ ﻁﺑﻳﻌﻲّ ،
ﻓﺈﻥ . n 11 ﻭﺑﻣﺎ ّ
ﺃﻥ 10,32
ln 0,8
ﺣ ّﻝ:- 10 -
ﺍﻟﺟﺯء )ﺃ(:
ﺃﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻷﺳﻼﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺷﺣﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻧﻳﺔ ﻫﻭ 50ﻭﻫﻲ ﺗﺗﺿﻣﻥ 20%ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ C1ﻭ 80% ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ ﺑﻣﺎ ّ
ﻣﻛﻭﻥ ﻣﻥ 10ﺃﺳﻼﻙ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ C1ﻭ 40ﺳﻠﻛﺎ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ .C2ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ﺗﻭﺟﺩ ّ ،C2
ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺧﻳﺭﺓ ّ
÷æ50ö
çççﻻﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ 4ﺃﺳﻼﻙ ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ .50 ÷ ﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ
è 4 ÷÷ø
÷æ10ö
÷ çç (1ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻕ ﻻﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ 4ﺃﺳﻼﻙ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ C1ﻫﻭ:
çè 4 ÷÷ø
÷æ10ö
÷ çç
÷çè 4 ÷ø 3
= ). P (E
æ50÷ö 3290
= ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ﻧﺟﺩ:
÷ çç
çè 4 ÷÷ø
÷æ10ö
çç ÷ = 10 (2ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻕ ﻻﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ﺳﻠﻙ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ C1ﻫﻭ:
÷çè 1 ÷ø
÷æ40ö
÷ çç ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻕ ﻻﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ 3ﺃﺳﻼﻙ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ C2ﻫﻭ:
÷çè 3 ÷ø
æ40ö
÷÷÷ 10´çç
çè 3 ÷ø 988
= )P (F
÷æ50ö
= ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ﻧﺟﺩ:
÷ çç 2303
÷
÷èç 4 ø
(3ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ » : Gﻻ ﻧﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻱ ﺳﻠﻙ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ «C1ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ﺍﻟﻧﺎﻓﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ .G
ﻣﻧﻪ ﻳﻧﺗﺞ » : Gﻧﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ 4ﺃﺳﻼﻙ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ «C2
÷æ40ö
÷ çç ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻕ ﻻﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ 4ﺃﺳﻼﻙ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ C2ﻫﻭ:
çè 4 ÷÷ø
17
÷æ40ö
÷ çç
çè 4 ÷÷ø 13891
. P(G)=1- P(G)=1- æ ö
= ﻣﻧﻪ ﻧﺟﺩ:
÷÷çç50 23030
çè 4 ÷÷ø
ﺟﺯء )ﺏ(:
(2ﻧﻔﺭﺽ ّ
ﺃﻥ . n = 4ﺗﻌﻁﻰ ﺍﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ ﺑﺗﻘﺭﻳﺏ ﻗﺩﺭﻩ 10-4ﺑﺎﻟﻧﻘﺻﺎﻥ .
ﺃ( ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺻﻭﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠﻛﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ .C1
ﻣﺭﺓ ﻳﺗﻡ ﺑﺻﻔﺔ ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻠﺔ ﻭﻓﻲ ﻧﻔﺱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺳﺣﺏ ﻳﺗﻡ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻹﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻗﺑﻝ ﺍﻟﺳﺣﺏ ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺍﻟﻲّ ،
ﻓﺈﻥ ﺗﻛﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ ّ ﺑﻣﺎ ّ
ﺍﻟﺷﺭﻭﻁ ،ﻭﻫﻭ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺳﻣﺢ ﻟﻧﺎ ﻣﻣﺎ ﻳﺳﻣﺢ ﻟﻧﺎ ﺑﺈﺩﺭﺍﺝ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺛﻧﺎﺋﻲ.
æn ö
k 5 ﻭ k Î ﺣﻳﺙ P (X = k ) = çç ÷÷÷ 0, 2k ´ 0,8n -k ﻣﻧﻪ ﺣﺳﺏ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ:
çèk ÷ø
æ4ö
ﻧﻌﻭﺽ n = 4ﻭ k = 2ﻓﻧﺟﺩ P (X = 2) = ççç ÷÷÷ 0, 22 ´0,82 = 0,1536 :
çè2÷ø
ﺏ( ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺻﻭﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠﻙ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻝ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ .C1
. P (X 1) = 1- P ( X = 0) = 1- 0,84 = 0,5904 ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﻫﻭ:
ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ :11
ﻧﺳﺣﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺗﻭﺍﻟﻲ mﻛﺭﺓ ﻣﻥ ﻭﻋﺎء ﻳﺣﺗﻭﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ Nﻛﺭﺓ ﻣﺭﻗﻣﺔ ﻣﻥ 1ﺇﻟﻰ ، Nﺑﺣﻳﺙ ﻧﻌﻳﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻝ
ﻣﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺣﻭﺑﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﻋﺎء ﻗﺑﻝ ﺍﻟﺳﺣﺏ ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺍﻟﻲ.
18
ﻣﺭﺓ ﻧﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﺭﺓ ﺗﺣﻣﻝ ﺭﻗﻣﺎ ﻳﺳﺎﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﺭﺗﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﺳﺣﺑﺕ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ،ﺑﻳﻧﻣﺎ
ﻧﺭﺑﺢ ﺩﻳﻧﺎﺭﺍ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻝ ّ
ﻻ ﻧﺭﺑﺢ ﺷﻳﺋﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﺭﻯ .
ﺣ ّﻝ: - 11 -
1
=.p ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺻﻭﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﺭﺓ ﺭﺍﺑﺣﺔ ﻫﻭ
N
1
. 1- p = 1- ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺻﻭﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﺭﺓ ﻏﻳﺭ ﺭﺍﺑﺣﺔ ﻫﻭ
N
ﻣﺭﺓّ ،
ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ ﺗﻛﻭﻥ ﺑﻣﺎ ّ
ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺳﺣﺏ ﻳﺗ ّﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺗﻭﺍﻟﻲ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻹﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻗﺑﻝ ﺍﻟﺳﺣﺏ ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺍﻟﻲ ﻭﻧﻛﺭﺭﻩ ّ m
1
. B (m , ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺑﻌﺿﻬﺎ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ﻧﺳﺗﻧﺗﺞ ّ
ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ ﺗﺗﺑﻊ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺑﺭﻧﻭﻟﻲ )
N
ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ :12
ﻳﺣﺗﻭﻱ ﻭﻋﺎء ﻋﻠﻰ 8ﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﺑﻳﺿﺎء ﻭ 4ﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﺳﻭﺩﺍء ﻭ 3ﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﺣﻣﺭﺍء .ﻧﺳﺣﺏ ﻋﺷﻭﺍﺋﻳﺎ 3
ﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻭﻋﺎء .ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺻﻭﻝ:
19
ﺣ ّﻝ :- 12-
æ15ö
.1ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻣﻛﻧﺔ ﻟﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ ﻫﻭ . ççç ÷÷÷ = 455
è 3 ÷ø
.3ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ﺍﻟﻧﺎﻓﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ '' : Aﺛﻼﺙ ﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﻥ ﻧﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﻠﻭﻥ ''
ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ '' : Aﻻ ﻧﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻱ ﻛﺭﺓ ﺑﻳﺿﺎء ''
ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ:
÷æ9ö
÷ çç
÷çè3÷ø 84
= ) p (A =
455 455
84 371
. p (A ) = 1 - p (A ) = 1 - = ﻭﻣﻨﻪ
455 455
ﻳﺗﻛﻭﻥ ﺗﻼﻣﻳﺫ ﺛﺎﻧﻭﻳﺔ ﻣﻥ 48%ﺃﻭﻻﺩ ﻭ 52% ﺑﻧﺎﺕ 85% .ﻣﻥ ﺍﻷﻭﻻﺩ ﻳﻧﺗﻣﻭﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻧﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻡ ﺍﻵﻟﻲ
ﺑﺎﻟﺛﺎﻧﻭﻳﺔ ﻭ 68%ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﺑﻧﺎﺕ ﻳﻧﺗﻣﻳﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻧﺎﺩﻱ ﺃﻳﺿﺎ .ﻧﺧﺗﺎﺭ ﺗﻠﻣﻳﺫﺍ ﻣﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻧﻭﻳﺔ.
.1ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻧﺗﻣﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺗﻠﻣﻳﺫ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻧﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻡ ﺍﻵﻟﻲ؟
.2ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﺗﻠﻣﻳﺫ ﻣﻥ ﻧﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻡ ﺍﻵﻟﻲ ﻭﻟﺩ؟
ﺣ ّﻝ: - 13 -
.1ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻧﺗﻣﻲ ﺗﻠﻣﻳﺫ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻣﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻧﻭﻳﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻧﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻡ ﺍﻵﻟﻲ .
ﻧﻌﺭﻑ ﺍﻷﺣﺩﺍﺙ ﺍﻵﺗﻳﺔ:
ّ
» : Gﺍﻟﺗﻠﻣﻳﺫ ﺍﻟﻣﺧﺗﺎﺭ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻧﻭﻳﺔ ﻫﻭ ﻭﻟﺩ«
20
» : Fﺍﻟﺗﻠﻣﻳﺫ ﺍﻟﻣﺧﺗﺎﺭ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻧﻭﻳﺔ ﻫﻭ ﺑﻧﺕ«
ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ﺇﺫﻥ:
p (G ) = 0, 48 p (F ) = 0,52
pG (I ) = 0,85 p F (I ) = 0, 68
pG (I ) = 0,15 p F (I ) = 0,32
ﻣﻧﻪ ) p (G Ç I ) = p (G )´ pG (I ) = p (I )´ p I (G
) p (G ). pG (I
= ) (1)....... p I (G ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ﻳﻧﺗﺞ
) p (I
ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ :14
ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻣﻁﺭ ﻏﺩﺍ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺃﻣﻁﺭﺕ ﺍﻟﻳﻭﻡ ﻫﻭ ، 0,8ﻭﻫﻭ 0,3ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺟﻭ ﺻﺣﻭﺍ.
.Iﻧﻔﺭﺽ ّ
ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺟﻭ ﺻﺣﻭ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻳﻭﻡ .
(1ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﺻﺣﻭﺍ ﺑﻌﺩ 3ﺃﻳّﺎﻡ؟
(2ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﺻﺣﻭﺍ ﺑﻌﺩ 10ﺃﻳّﺎﻡ؟
.IIﻧﻔﺭﺽ ّ
ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺟﻭ ﻣﻣﻁﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻳﻭﻡ .
21
(1ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻣﻁﺭ ﺑﻌﺩ 3ﺃﻳّﺎﻡ؟
(2ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻣﻁﺭ ﺑﻌﺩ 15ﻳﻭﻣﺎ؟ ﺍﺳﺗﻧﺗﺞ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺟﻭ ﺻﺣﻭﺍ ﺑﻌﺩ 15ﻳﻭﻣﺎ .
ﺣ ّﻝ: - 14 -
ﻳﻧﺗﺞ:
p(A0 ) = 1 et p(A0 ) = 0
p An (A n +1 ) = 0,8 p An (A n +1 ) = 1- p An (A n +1 ) = 0,2
p An (A n +1 ) = 0,3 p An (A n +1 ) = 1- p An (A n +1 ) = 0,7
ﺍﻟﺟﻭ ﺻﺣﻭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻳﻭﻡ ﻭﻧﺭﻳﺩ ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﺻﺣﻭﺍ ﺑﻌﺩ 10ﺃﻳّﺎﻡ .
ﺃﻥ ّ (2ﻧﻌﻠﻡ ّ
ﻧﺳﺗﻌﻣﻝ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻛﻠﻳﺔ ﻓﻧﺟﺩ:
22
) p (A n +1 ) = p (A n Ç A n +1 ) + p (A n Ç A n +1
) = p (A n ). p An (A n +1 ) + p (A n ). p A (A n +1
n
ﺣﻳﺙ ) u n p ( A nﻭ u 0 p ( A 0 ) 1 ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻳﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺗﻌﺭﻳﻑ ﻣﺗﺗﺎﻟﻳﺔ u n
ﺣﻳﺙ ﻧﺟﺩ:
) u n +1 = 0,7u n + 0, 2(1-u n
ﻭﻣﻧﻪ
u n +1 = 0,5u n + 0, 2
23
p (A 3 ) = (0, 2)(0, 7)(0,3) + (0, 2)(0,3)(0,8) + (0,8)(0, 2)(0,3) + (0,8)3
= 0, 650
24
ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ :15
ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻛﻭﻥ ﻧﻘﻁﻳﺔ ﻛﻳﻔﻳﺔ ﺗﺧﺗﺎﺭ ﻣﻥ ﺩﺍﺧﻝ ﻛﺭﺓ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻧﺻﻑ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺭ ، Rﺃﻗﺭﺏ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻣﺭﻛﺯ ﻫﺫﻩ
ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺓ ﻣﻥ ﺳﻁﺣﻬﺎ؟
ﺣ ّﻝ – : - 15
ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻹﻣﻛﺎﻧﻳﺎﺕ ﻫﻲ ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻧﻘﻁ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﻘﻊ ﺩﺍﺧﻝ ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺓ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻧﺻﻑ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺭ . R
ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑﺔ ﻟﻠﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ » ﺍﻟﻧﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻣﺧﺗﺎﺭﺓ ﺗﻛﻭﻥ ﺃﻗﺭﺏ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻣﺭﻛﺯ ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺓ ﻣﻥ ﺳﻁﺣﻬﺎ « ﻫﻲ
R
. ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻧﻘﻁ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﻘﻊ ﺩﺍﺧﻝ ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺓ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻧﺻﻑ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺭ
2
3
= . p 3 ) (
4p R
2 1
ﻣﻧﻪ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﻫﻭ = :
3 8
) (
4p R
3
ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ :16
.1ﻧﺳﺣﺏ ﻓﻲ ﺁﻥ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻭﻋﺎء ،ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﻛﻝ ﺣﺩﺙ ﻣﻣﺎ ﻳﺄﺗﻲ .
ﺃ( ﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﺣﻣﺭﺍﻭﻳﻥ .
ﺏ( ﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﺑﻳﺿﺎﻭﻳﻥ .
ﺝ( ﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﻟﻭﻧﻳﻥ ﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﻳﻥ .
.2ﻧﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺓ ﻭﻧﺳﺟﻝ ﻟﻭﻧﻬﺎ ﺛ ّﻡ ﻧﻌﻳﺩﻫﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﻋﺎء ﺍﻧﺳﺣﺏ ﻣﻥ ﺟﺩﻳﺩ ﻛﺭﺓ ﺃﺧﺭﻯ ﻧﺳﺟﻝ ﻟﻭﻧﻬﺎ ﺃﻳﺿﺎ،
ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﻛﻝ ﺣﺩﺙ ﻣﻣﺎ ﻳﺄﺗﻲ .
ﺃ( ﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﺣﻣﺭﺍﻭﻳﻥ .
ﺏ( ﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﺑﻳﺿﺎﻭﻳﻥ .
ﺝ( ﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﻟﻭﻧﻳﻥ ﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﻳﻥ .
25
ﺣ ّﻝ : -16 -
ﺗﺫﻛﻳﺭ ﺑﺎﻟﺩﺭﺱ:
ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺗﻭﻓﻳﻘﺎﺕ )ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺟﺯﺋﻳﺔ ﻏﻳﺭ ﻣﺭﺗﺑﺔ ﻭﺑﺩﻭﻥ ﺗﻛﺭﺍﺭ ﻟﻌﻧﺎﺻﺭﻫﺎ( ﺫﺍﺕ pﻋﻧﺻﺭﺍ ﻣﻥ
n
ﺣﻳﺙ ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ nﻋﻧﺻﺭﺍ ﺣﻳﺙ 0 p nﻫﻭ ﺃﻭ .C pn
p
æn ö !n )n (n -1) (n -1)...(n - p +1
= . ççç ÷÷÷÷ =C np =
çè p ø !) p !(n - p 1´2´...´ p
.1ﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ 7ﻛﺭﺍﺕ ) 4ﺣﻣﺭﺍء ﻭ 3ﺑﻳﺿﺎء( ﻓﻲ ﺁﻥ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻳﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺗﺷﻛﻳﻝ ﺗﻭﻓﻳﻘﺎﺕ
ﺫﺍﺕ ﻋﻧﺻﺭﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ ، 7ﻣﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻣﻛﻧﺔ ﻟﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ ﻫﻭ C 72ﺑﺎﻟﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﻧﺟﺩ
.C 72 = 21
ﺃ( ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑﺔ ﻟﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﺣﻣﺭﺍﻭﻳﻥ ﻫﻭ C 42 = 6 :ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ﻳﻧﺗﺞ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﻫﺫﻩ
C 42 6 2
ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ﻫﻭ = = . p = 2
C 7 21 7
ﺏ( ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑﺔ ﻟﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﺑﻳﺿﺎﻭﻳﻥ ﻫﻭ C 32 = 3 :ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ﻳﻧﺗﺞ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﻫﺫﻩ
C 32 3 1
ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ﻫﻭ = = . p ¢ = 2
C 7 21 7
ﺝ( ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑﺔ ﻟﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺓ ﺣﻣﺭﺍء ﻭﺃﺧﺭﻯ ﺑﻳﺿﺎء ﻫﻭC 31 ´C 41 = 3´4 = 12 :
C 31 ´C 41 3´4 4
= . p¢ 2
= ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ﻳﻧﺗﺞ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ﻫﻭ =
C 7 21 7
.2ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺳﺅﺍﻝ ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ﺍﻟﺳﺣﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺗﻭﺍﻟﻲ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻹﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻗﺑﻝ ﺍﻟﺳﺣﺏ ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺍﻟﻲ .ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺳﺣﺏ ﻳﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ
ﺗﺷﻛﻳﻝ ﻗﻭﺍﺋﻡ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻋﻧﺻﺭﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ 7ﻋﻧﺎﺻﺭ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ّ
ﻓﺈﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻣﻛﻧﺔ ﻫﻭ 7²
2
ﺃ( ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﻟﻭﻥ ﺃﺣﻣﺭ ﻫﻭ ّ p1 = 2 = 16
ﻷﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑﺔ ﻟﻬﺫﻩ 4
7 49
ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ﻫﻭ . 42 = 16
26
ّ 32 9
= p 2 = 2ﻷﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑﺔ ﻫﻭ 3² ﺏ( ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﻟﻭﻥ ﺃﺑﻳﺽ ﻫﻭ
7 49
.
ﺝ( ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺓ ﻣﻥ ﻟﻭﻥ ﺃﺑﻳﺽ ﻭﺃﺧﺭﻯ ﻣﻥ ﻟﻭﻥ ﺃﺣﻣﺭ ﻫﻭ ّ p3 = 3´24 = 12
ﻷﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ
7 49
ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑﺔ ﻫﻭ . 3 4 12
ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ :17
ﻧﻌﺗﺑﺭ ﻓﺿﺎء ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﻭﻟﻳﺗﻛﻥ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺗﺎﻥ Aﻭ . Bﻧﺭﻣﺯ ﺑﺎﻟﺭﻣﺯﻳﻥ Aﻭ Bﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺗﻳﻥ
ﺍﻟﻧﺎﻓﻳﺗﻳﻥ ﻟﻠﺣﺎﺩﺛﺗﻳﻥ Aﻭ . B
ﺣ ّﻝ:- 17 -
ّ ) p (A Ç B
= ) p A (B ﻧﻌﻠﻡ ﺃﻥ
) p (A
ﻣﻧﻪ . p (A Ç B ) = p (A )´ p A (B ) = 0,5´0,6 = 0,3
) p A ( B ) = 1- p A ( B ﻭﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ
) p (A Ç B ) p (A Ç B
= 1- ﺇﺫﻥ
) p (A ) p (A
ﻧﻌﻠﻡ ّ
ﺃﻥ ) p (A È B ) = 1 - p (A È B ) = 1 - p (A Ç B
27
ﺑﺎﻟﺗﻌﻭﻳﺽ ﻧﺟﺩ . p (A È B ) = 1 - p (A È B ) = 1 - p (A Ç B ) = 1 - 0, 2 = 0,8
ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ :18
ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺗﺎﻥ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺍﺕ A1ﻭ 70% . A 2ﻣﻥ ﻛﺭﺍﺕ A1ﺍﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ ﺑﻳﺿﺎء ﻭ 80% ﻣﻥ
ﻛﺭﺍﺕ A 2ﺑﻳﺿﺎء.
ﻧﻔﺭﺽ ﺃﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺗﺣﺗﻭﻳﻪ ﺍﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ A1ﻫﻭ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺃﺿﻌﺎﻑ ﻣﺎ ﺗﺣﺗﻭﻳﻪ ﺍﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ . A 2
ﻭﺿﻌﺕ ﺟﻣﻳﻊ ﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺗﻳﻥ A1ﻭ A 2ﻓﻲ ﻧﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﻭﻋﺎء .ﻭﻗﻣﻧﺎ ﺑﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺩﺓ ﻣﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻭﻋﺎء
ﺃﻥ ﻟﻭﻧﻬﺎ ﺃﺑﻳﺽ .ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻧّﻬﺎ ﺗﻧﺗﻣﻲ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ A1؟
ﻋﺷﻭﺍﺋﻳﺎ ،ﻓﺗﺑﻳّﻥ ّ
ﺣ ّﻝ:- 18 -
ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ A1ﻫﻭ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺃﺿﻌﺎﻑ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻛﺭﺍﺕ . A 2
1 3
= ) . p (a2 = ) p (a1ﻭ ﺇﺫﻥ ﻳﻧﺗﺞ
4 4
ﻧﻌﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ » : Bﺍﻟﻛﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺣﻭﺑﺔ ﺑﻳﺿﺎء «
ّ
ﺇﺫﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﺣﺳﺎﺑﻪ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺷﺭﻁﻲ ) p B (a1
ﻧﻁﺑﻖ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﺍﻵﺗﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻧﺣﺻﻝ ﻋﻠﻳﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﺳﺗﻌﻣﺎﻝ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻛﻠﻳﺔ:
28
ﺟﺩﺍء ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺑﻁ ﺑﻳﻥ a1ﻭ B
p B (a1 )
ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻉ ﺟﺩﺍءﺍﺕ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺟﻣﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﺧﺭﺝ B
ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ
)p (B Ç a1 )p (B Ç a1
= )p B (a1 =
) p (B ) p (B Ç a1) + p (B Ç a2
) p (a1). pa1 (B
=
) p (a1). pa1 (B ) + p (a2 ). pa2 (B
525
= ) p B (a1ﺃﻱ . p B (a1) » 0,72 ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ﻧﺟﺩ:
725
ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ :19
ﻳﻌﻠﻡ ﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭ ّ
ﺃﻥ ﻣﻔﺗﺭﻕ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻕ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺳﻳَ ُﻣﺭ ﻋﺑﺭﻩ ﻳﺗﻔﺭﻉ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻁﺭﻳﻘﻳﻥ ،ﺃﺣﺩﻫﻣﺎ ﻣﻣﺭ ﻣﻐﻠﻖ ﻭﺍﻵﺧﺭ
ﻫﻭ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﺻﺣﻳﺢ .ﻭﻋﻧﺩﻣﺎ ﻭﺻﻝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻣﻔﺗﺭﻕ ﻟﻡ ﻳﺟﺩ ﺳﻭﻯ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺃﺷﺧﺎﺹ.
ﻣﺭﺍﺕ
ﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺷﺧﺹ ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻧﻲ S 2ﻳﺻﺩﻕ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻝ ّ 5
ﺍﻷﻭﻝ S 1ﻳﺻﺩﻕ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻝ ﻣﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ ّ 10
ﺍﻟﺷﺧﺹ ّ
ﻣﺭﺍﺕ. ﻣﺭﺍﺕ ،ﺑﻳﻧﻣﺎ ﻳﺻﺩﻕ ﺍﻟﺷﺧﺹ ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻟﺙ ّ 9 ، S 3
ﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ ّ 10 ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ ّ 10
ﺳﺄﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭ ﺃﺣﺩ ﻫﺅﻻء ﺍﻷﺷﺧﺎﺹ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﺻﺣﻳﺢ ،ﻓﺎﺗﺿﺢ ﻟﻪ ﺑﻌﺩﻣﺎ ﺳﻠﻛﻪ ﺃﻧّﻪ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﺻﺣﻳﺢ
ﺍﻷﻭﻝ S 1؟
ﻓﻌﻼ .ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﻗﺩ ﺳﺄﻝ ﺍﻟﺷﺧﺹ ّ
ﺣ ّﻝ:- 19 -
ﺇﺫﻥ ﻳﻧﺗﺞ:
1 1 1
= ) . p (R 3 = ) ، p ( R 2 ) = ، p ( R1
3 3 3
) p (R1 ) ´ p R1 (V
= ) pV (R1 ﻭﻣﻧﻪ
) p (R1 ) ´ p R1 (V ) + p ( R 2 ) ´ p R 2 (V ) + p ( R 3 ) ´ p R 3 (V
ﺗﺳﻣﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺳﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺩﺳﺗﻭﺭ ﺑﺎﻳﺯ ) (Bayesﻭﻳﻣﻛﻥ ﺍﻟﺗﻌﺑﻳﺭ ﻋﻧﻬﺎ ﻛﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ:
1
´ 0, 2
3 1
= ) . pV (R1 ﺑﺎﻟﺗﻌﻭﻳﺽ ﻧﺟﺩ= = 0,125 :
1 1 1
´ 0,2 + ´ 0,5 + ´ 0,9 8
3 3 3
ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ :20
ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻘﻭﻡ ﻣﺻﻠﺣﺔ ﺍﻟﺑﺭﻳﺩ ﺑﺳﺣﺏ ﺍﻟﺭﺳﺎﺋﻝ ﻣﻥ ﺻﻧﺩﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﺑﻠﺩﻳﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻳﻭﻡ ﺫﻱ ﺍﻟﺭﺗﺑﺔ n
1
ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﺳﻧﺔ ﻫﻭ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺕ ﻗﺩ ﺳﺣﺑﺕ ﺍﻟﺭﺳﺎﺋﻝ ﺑﺎﻷﻣﺱ ،ﻭﻫﻭ 1ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﺭﻯ.
2
30
ﻟﻳﻛﻥ p nﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻘﻭﻡ ﻣﺻﻠﺣﺔ ﺍﻟﺑﺭﻳﺩ ﺑﺳﺣﺏ ﺍﻟﺭﺳﺎﺋﻝ ﻣﻥ ﺻﻧﺩﻭﻕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻳﻭﻡ ﺫﻱ ﺍﻟﺭﺗﺑﺔ . n
ﺍﺣﺳﺏ p nﺇﺫﺍ ﻋﻠﻣﺕ ّ
ﺃﻥ ) p1 1ﻧﺑﺣﺙ ﻋﻥ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺗﺭﺍﺟﻌﻳﺔ ﺑﻳﻥ p nﻭ ( p n 1
ﺣ ّﻝ – : - 20
ﻧﻌﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ » A nﺗﺳﺣﺏ ﺍﻟﺭﺳﺎﺋﻝ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻳﻭﻡ ﺫﻱ ﺍﻟﺭﺗﺑﺔ « n
ّ
ﻧﺳﻣﻲ A nﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ﺍﻟﻧﺎﻓﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ . A n
ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ:
p nﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺳﺣﺏ ﺍﻟﺭﺳﺎﺋﻝ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻳﻭﻡ ﺫﻱ ﺍﻟﺭﺗﺑﺔ . n
ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ﻧﺳﺗﻧﺗﺞ ّ
ﺃﻥ:
p An (A n +1 ) = 0,5ﻭ p An (A n +1 ) = 0
1
ﻭﻣﻧﻪ . p n +1 = - p n + 1
2
1
ﺑﺎﻟﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﻧﺟﺩ v n +1 = - v nﻣﻧﻪ ﻧﺳﺗﻧﺗﺞ ّ
ﺃﻥ :
2
1 1
v 1 = p 2 - p1 = -
2
ﺍﻷﻭﻝ v 1ﺣﻳﺙ
) (v nﻣﺗﺗﺎﻟﻳﺔ ﻫﻧﺩﺳﻳﺔ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻬﺎ q = - 2ﻭﺣﺩّﻫﺎ ّ
31
n -1
æ 1 öæ 1 ö
v n = v 1q n -1
÷÷÷ = çç- ÷÷÷çç- ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ﺣﺩّﻫﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻫﻭ
çè 2 øèç 2 ø
2 2
pn = - v n
3
+
3
ﻭﺣﻳﺙ ﻳﻣﻛﻧﻧﺎ ﻛﺗﺎﺑﺔ
n
÷ . p n = - 23 æçççè- 1 ö÷÷ø +
2
3
ﻧﺟﺩ
2
ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ :21
ﻧﺭﻣﺯ ﺑﺎﻟﺭﻣﻭﺯ q ، p nﻭ rnﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺻﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺓ ﻋﻧﺩ ﻛﻣﺎﻝ ،ﺳﻌﺎﺩ ﻭﺭﻳﺎﺽ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺗﺭﺗﻳﺏ n
ﺣ ّﻝ:- 21 -
ﺇﺫﻥ ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ:
32
p (A n ) = p nﻭ p (B n ) = q nﻭ . p (C n ) = rn
) p (A n +1 ) = p (A n Ç A n +1 ) + p (B n Ç A n +1 ) + p (C n Ç A n +1
) p (B n +1 ) = p (B n Ç B n +1 ) + p (A n Ç B n +1 ) + p (C n Ç B n +1 ﻭ
) p (C n +1 ) = p (C n Ç C n +1 ) + p (A n Ç C n +1 ) + p (B n Ç C n +1 ﻭ
) p (A n +1 ) = p (A n ). p An (A n +1 ) + p (B n ). p B n (A n +1 ) + p (C n ). pC n (A n +1
) p (B n +1 ) = p (B n ). p B n (B n +1 ) + p (A n ). p An (B n +1 ) + p (C n ). pC n (B n +1 ﻭ
) p (B n +1 ) = p (C n ). pC n (C n +1 ) + p (A n ). p A n (C n +1 ) + p (B n ). p B n (C n +1 ﻭ
3
ﺗﻧﺗﺞ ﻣﻣﺎ ﺳﺑﻖ ﺍﻟﺟﻣﻠﺔ :
p n +1 = q n
4
3
q n +1 = p n + rn
4
1 1
rn +1 = p n + q n
4 4
ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺓ ﻣﻭﺟﻭﺩﺓ ﻋﻧﺩ ﺃﺣﺩ ﺍﻟﻼﻋﺑﻳﻥ ﺍﻟﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ﻣﻬﻣﺎ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺑﻳﻌﻲ ّ n
ﻓﺈﻥ ﻧﻌﻠﻡ ّ
. p n + q n + rn = 1
33
ﻧﻔﺭﺽ ﺃﻥ ﻛﻝ ﻣﺗﺗﺎﻟﻳﺔ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﺗﺗﺎﻟﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺗﻘﺑﻝ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﻣﻧﺗﻬﻳﺔ ﻋﻧﺩﻣﺎ ﻳﺅﻭﻝ nﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻼﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ،ﻭﻧﺿﻊ ﺑﻧﺎء
ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻙ lim p n = pﻭ lim q n = qﻭ . lim rn = r .
n +¥ n +¥ n +¥
ﻋﻧﺩﻣﺎ ﻧﺟﻌﻝ nﻳﺅﻭﻝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻼﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺟﻣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺳﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻧﺟﺩ ﺍﻟﺟﻣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺍﻟﻳﺔ:
3
= p q
4
3
= q p + r
4
1 1
= r p + q
4 4
ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ :22
ﺣ ّﻝ:- 22 -
ﻧﺷﻛﻝ ﺟﺩﻭﻝ ﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ ﻋﻣﻠﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺟﻣﻊ ﻟﻠﺭﻗﻣﻳﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﻣﻛﻥ ﻅﻬﻭﺭﻫﻣﺎ ﻋﻧﺩ ﺇﻟﻘﺎء ﺍﻟﺣﺟﺭﻳﻥ.
ﺣﺠﺮ1
1 2 3 4 5 6
ﺣﺠﺮ 2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
ﺍﻟﺟﺩﻭﻝ 1
34
» : Aﻣﺟﻣﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻣﻳﻥ ﺍﻟﻅﺎﻫﺭﻳﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﺟﻬﻳﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻭﻳﻳﻥ ﻟﻠﺣﺟﺭﻳﻥ ﻓﺭﺩﻳﺎ «
ﺣﺠﺮ1
1 2 3 4 5 6
ﺣﺠﺮ 2
1 3 5 7
18
2 3 5 7 ﺍﻟﺟﺩﻭﻝ 2 = ) p (A ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ
3 5 7 9 36
4 5 7 9
5 7 9 11
6 7 9 11
ﺣﺠﺮ1
1 2 3 4 5 6
ﺣﺠﺮ 2
1
2
3
4
5 11
ﺍﻟﺟﺩﻭﻝ 3 = ) p (B ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ
6 36
)ﻧﻌﺑﺭ ﻋﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ﺑﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺧﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻣﻠﻭءﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻣﺷﺗﺭﻛﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺟﺩﻭﻟﻳﻥ 2ﻭ (3
6
ﺣﺠﺮ 2
ﺣﺠﺮ1
1 2 3 4 5 6 = ) p (A Ç B ﺣﺳﺏ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺟﺩﻭﻝ ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ
36
1 3 5 7
2 3
3
4 5
ﻧﻼﺣﻅ ّ
ﺃﻥ ) p (A Ç B ) ¹ p (A ) ´ p (B
5
6 7
35
ﻭﻣﻧﻪ Aﻭ Bﺣﺎﺩﺛﺗﺎﻥ ﻏﻳﺭ ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻠّﺗﻳﻥ .
ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ :23
ﻣﻥ ﺟﺩﻳﺩ ﻧﺳﺣﺏ ﻋﺷﻭﺍﺋﻳﺎ ﻗﺭﻳﺻﺔ ﻣﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻭﻋﺎء ﻭﻧﺳﺟﻝ ﺭﻗﻣﻬﺎ aﺛ ّﻡ ﻧﻌﻳﺩﻫﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﻋﺎء ﻭﻧﺳﺣﺏ
ﻗﺭﻳﺻﺔ ﺃﺧﺭﻯ ﻭﻧﺳﺟﻝ ﻟﻭﻧﻬﺎ . b
ﻟﻳﻛﻥ ) (O ; i , j , kﻣﻌﻠﻣﺎ ﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣﺩﺍ ﻭﻣﺗﺟﺎﻧﺳﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺿﺎء.
ﻧﻌﺗﺑﺭ ﺍﻟﺷﻌﺎﻋﻳﻥ uﻭ vﺣﻳﺙ ) u (a ,- 5,1 - aﻭ ) .v (1 + b ,1, b
1
. ﺑﺭﻫﻥ ّ
ﺃﻥ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﻫﺫﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺷﻌﺎﻋﺎﻥ ﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣﺩﻳﻥ ﻫﻭ
4
ﺣ ّﻝ:- 23 -
ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺷﻌﺎﻋﺎﻥ uﻭ vﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣﺩﻳﻥ ،ﺇﺫﺍ ﻭﻓﻘﻁ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺟﺩﺍﺅﻫﻣﺎ ﺍﻟﺳﻠّﻣﻲ ﻣﻌﺩﻭﻣﺎ.
ﻭﺣﻳﺙ ّ
ﺃﻥ u .v = a (1 + b ) + 1´ (-5) + (1 - a )b
ّ
ﻓﺈﻥ uﻭ vﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣﺩﺍﻥ ،ﺇﺫﺍ ﻭﻓﻘﻁ ﺇﺫﺍ. a + b = 5 ،
ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ﻧﺟﺩ ﺍﻟﺛﻧﺎﺋﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺗﺑﺔ ) (a ; bﻫﻲ ) (3;2) ، (2;3) ، (4; 1) ، (1; 4ﻣﻊ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﻛﻝ ﺛﻧﺎﺋﻳﺔ ﻫﻭ
2
æ1ö
÷÷÷ ). çççﺍﻟﺳﺣﺏ ﻫﻧﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺗﻭﺍﻟﻲ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻹﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻗﺑﻝ ﺍﻟﺳﺣﺏ ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺍﻟﻲ(
è 4ø
2
æ1ö 1
ﻣﻧﻪ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺷﻌﺎﻋﺎﻥ ﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣﺩﻳﻥ ﻫﻭ = ÷÷÷ . 4 ´ççç
è 4ø 4
ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ :24
ﻧﺧﺿﻊ ﻛﻝ ﻗﻁﻊ ﺍﻟﻐﻳﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻳﻧﺗﺟﻬﺎ ﻣﺻﻧﻊ ﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭﻳﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻋﻳﻥ T1ﺛ ّﻡ .T 2
36
95%ﻣﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻊ ﺗﻧﺟﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ 99% .T1ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻊ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻧﺟﺣﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ T1ﻧﺟﺣﺕ ﺃﻳﺿﺎ
ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ ،T 2ﺑﻳﻧﻣﺎ ﻧﺟﺩ ّ
ﺃﻥ 98%ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻊ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻟﻡ ﺗﻧﺟﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ T1ﻧﺟﺣﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ .T 2
ﻭﻧﻌﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺗﻳﻥ:
ّ ﻧﻌﺗﺑﺭ ﻗﻁﻌﺔ ﻏﻳﺎﺭ ﻛﻳﻔﻳﺔ ﻣﻥ ﺇﻧﺗﺎﺝ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻣﺻﻧﻊ
.1ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ » : sﻗﻁﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﻳﺎﺭ ﺗﻧﺟﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭﻳﻥ T1ﻭ « T2
.2ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻧﺟﺢ ﻗﻁﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﻳﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ . T2
.3ﻫﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺗﺎﻥ T1ﻭ T2ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻠّﺗﺎﻥ .
.4ﻧﺧﺗﺎﺭ ﻗﻁﻌﺔ ﻏﻳﺎﺭ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻊ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻧﺟﺣﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ ، T2ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻧّﻬﺎ ﻗﺩ ﻧﺟﺣﺕ ﻓﻲ
ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ T1؟
ﺣ ّﻝ:-24-
37
.2ﻳﻣﻛﻥ ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻗﻁﻌﺔ ﻏﻳﺎﺭ ﺗﻧﺟﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ T2ﺑﺗﻁﺑﻳﻖ
ﺩﺳﺗﻭﺭ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻛﻠﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ T1 È T2ﺣﻳﺙ ﻧﺟﺩ :
) p (T2 ) = p (T2 Ç T1 ) + p (T2 Ç T1
ﻭﻣﻧﻪ
P(T2 Ç T1 ) 0,9405
=) PT2 (T1 = ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ = 0,95048....
) P(T2 0,9895
ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ :25
ﻟﻳﻛﻥ nﻋﺩﺩ ﻁﺑﻳﻌﻳﺎ ﻏﻳﺭ ﻣﻌﺩﻭﻡ .ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ﻗﻁﻌﺔ ﻧﻘﺩﻳﺔ ﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻭﺟﻪ ﻋﻧﺩ ﺇﻟﻘﺎﺋﻬﺎ ﻫﻭ p
) pﻋﺩﺩ ﺣﻘﻳﻘﻲ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺎﻝ [( ]0;1
.1ﻧﻼﺣﻅ ﺃﻧّﻧﺎ ﻧﻛﺭﺭ ﻧﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻣﺧﺭﺟﻳﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﺷﺭﻭﻁ ﺑﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻠﺔ .ﺇﺫﻥ ﻧﺣﻥ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ
ﻣﺭﺓ .
ﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ ﺑﺭﻧﻭﻟﻲ ﻣﻛﺭﺭﺓ ّ n
ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻭﺟﻪ ﻫﻭ . p
.2ﺗﻌﻠﻡ ّ
ﺃﻥ E (X ) = n . p
ﻭﻛﺫﻟﻙ ) .v (X ) = n . p .(1 - p
ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ :26
ﻋﺩﺩ ﺃﻗﺳﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻧﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺛﺎﻧﻭﻳﺔ ﻫﻭ 3ﻧﺭﻣﺯ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺭﻣﻭﺯ T 1ﻭ T 2ﻭ .T 3
30%ﻣﻥ ﺗﻼﻣﻳﺫ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻧﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﻳﺩﺭﺳﻭﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﺳﻡ ،T 1ﻭ 50%ﻣﻥ ﺗﻼﻣﻳﺫ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻧﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﻳﺩﺭﺳﻭﻥ
ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﺳﻡ T 2ﻭﺑﻘﻳﺔ ﺗﻼﻣﻳﺫ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻧﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﻳﺩﺭﺳﻭﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﺳﻡ .T 3
25%ﻣﻥ ﺗﻼﻣﻳﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺳﻡ T 1ﻫﻡ ﺑﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﻳﺷﻛﻝ ﺍﻟﺑﻧﺎﺕ ﻧﺳﺑﺔ 40%ﻣﻥ ﺗﻼﻣﻳﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺳﻡ ،T 2ﺑﻳﻧﻣﺎ ﻳﺷﻛﻠﻥ ﻓﻲ
ﺍﻟﻘﺳﻡ T 3ﻣﺎ ﻧﺳﺑﺗﻪ . 80%
.1ﻧﻌﻳّﻥ ﺑﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺷﻭﺍﺋﻳﺔ ﺗﻠﻣﻳﺫﺍ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻧﻬﺎﺋﻲ .ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻧﻌﻳّﻥ ﺑﻧﺕ؟
.2ﻋﻳّﻧﻧﺎ ﺑﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺷﻭﺍﺋﻳﺔ ﺗﻠﻣﻳﺫﺍ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻧﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﻓﺗﺑﻳّﻥ ﺃﻧّﻪ ﺑﻧﺕ ،ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻛﻭﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺑﻧﺕ
ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺳﻡ T 1؟
ﺣﻝ :◌ّ - 26 -
) p ( F ÇT 1
= ) p F (T1 ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ
) p (F
ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ :27
ﻳﺣﺗﻭﻱ ﻭﻋﺎء ﻋﻠﻰ nﻛﺭﺓ ﺳﻭﺩﺍء ) * (n Î ﻭ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﺑﻳﺿﺎﻭﻳﻥ .ﻧﺳﺣﺏ ﻣﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻭﻋﺎء ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ
ﺍﻟﺗﻭﺍﻟﻲ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻹﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻗﺑﻝ ﺍﻟﺳﺣﺏ ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺍﻟﻲ.
40
ﺣ ّﻝ:- 27 -
n2 -n +2
.u n = 2 ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ
n + 3n + 2
n2 -n +2
lim u n = lim 2 ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ = 1
n +¥ n +¥ n + 3n + 2
ﺳﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻧّﻪ ﻋﻧﺩﻣﺎ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺳﻭﺩﺍء ﻛﺑﻳﺭ ﺑﻣﺎ ﻓﻳﻪ ﻛﻔﺎﻳﺔ ّ
ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ﺗﻔ ّ
Nﺗﺻﺑﺢ ﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ﺃﻛﻳﺩﺓ .ﻭﺑﺗﻌﺑﻳﺭ ﺁﺧﺭ ﻓﻔﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻻ ﺗﺄﺛﻳﺭ ﻟﻛﺭﺗﻳﺔ ﺑﻳﺿﺎﻭﻳﻥ .
ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ :28
41
ﺃ( ﻋﺑﺭ ﻋﻥ p nﺑﺩﻻﻟﺔ . n
2n + 1
= . p n +1 ﺏ( ﺃﺛﺑﺕ ﺃﻧّﻪ ﻣﻬﻣﺎ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺑﻳﻌﻲ nﻏﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺩﻭﻡp n ،
2n + 2
1
. pn ﺝ( ﺑﺭﻫﻥ ﺑﺎﻟﺗﺭﺍﺟﻊ ،ﺃﻧّﻪ ﻣﻬﻣﺎ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺑﻳﻌﻲ nﻏﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺩﻭﻡ،
2n + 1
ﺩ( ﺍﺩﺭﺱ ﺭﺗﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻣﺗﺗﺎﻟﻳﺔ * ( p n )n Îﺛ ّﻡ ﺍﺳﺗﻧﺗﺞ ﺗﻘﺎﺭﺑﻬﺎ .
ﻩ( ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻣﺗﺗﺎﻟﻳﺔ . ( p n )n Î
*
ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ
ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻧﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﺟﻪ ﺃﻛﺑﺭ ﻣﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ّ .3ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ّ
ﻧﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻅﻬﺭ.
ﺧﻼﺻﺔ :ﻣﺑﺩﺃ ﺍﻟﺑﺭﻫﺎﻥ ﺑﺎﻟﺗﺭﺍﺟﻊ ﻳﺳﻣﺢ ﺑﺎﺳﺗﻧﺗﺎﺝ ﺃﻧّﻪ ﻣﻬﻣﺎ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺑﻳﻌﻲ ﻏﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺩﻭﻡ،
1
. pn
2n + 1
ﺏ( ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺭﺗﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻣﺗﺗﺎﻟﻳﺔ ( p n )n Îﺛ ّﻡ ﺍﺳﺗﻧﺗﺞ ﺗﻘﺎﺭﺑﻬﺎ .
*
p n +1
.ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻳﻌﻧﻲ ّ
ﺃﻥ p n +1 < p nﻣﻥ ﺃﺟﻝ ﻛﻝ nﻣﻥ * . <1
pn
ﺧﻼﺻﺔ :ﺍﻟﻣﺗﺗﺎﻟﻳﺔ ) ( p nﻣﺗﻧﺎﻗﺻﺔ ﺗﻣﺎﻣﺎ ﻭﻣﺣﺩﻭﺩﺓ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻷﺩﻧﻰ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﺻﻔﺭ ،ﻓﻬﻲ ﺇﺫﻥ ﻣﺗﻘﺎﺭﺑﺔ .
1
limﻧﺳﺗﻧﺗﺞ 0 p n 1ﻭﺣﻳﺙ ّ
ﺃﻥ = 0 ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ﻣﻥ ﺃﺟﻝ ﻛﻝ nﻣﻥ * ،
n +¥ 2n + 1 2n + 1
ﺣﺳﺏ ﻣﺑﺭﻫﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﺣﺻﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻧﻬﺎﻳﺎﺕ ّ
ﺃﻥ . lim p n = 0
n +¥
ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ
ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻧﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﺟﻪ ﺃﻛﺑﺭ ﻣﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ّ
.2ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ّ
ﻧﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻅﻬﺭ .
ّ
ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ:
ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻧﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﺟﻪ ﺃﻛﺑﺭ ﻣﻥ
»ﺍﻟﺣﺻﻭﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺩﺩ ّ
ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻧﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻅﻬﺭ«
ﻋﺩﺩ ّ
ﺗﻘﺎﺑﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻧﻰ ) . (X > n
42
÷1 æç2n ö÷ 1 æç 2n ö
= qk ç ÷= ç ﺇﺫﻥ ÷ = q 2 n -k
÷÷4n èç k ø÷÷ 4n èç2n - k ø
n -1
ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ) P (X > n ) = q n -1 + q n -2 + q n -3 + ... + q1 + q 0 = å q k = P (X < n
k =0
ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ﻣﻥ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺃﺧﺭﻯ ﺍﻷﺣﺩﺍﺙ ) (X = n ) ، (X < nﻭ ) (X > nﺗﺷﻛﻝ ﺗﺟﺯﺋﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﺿﺎء . W
1 p
ﻭﺃﺧﻳﺭﺍ ﻧﺟﺩ . P (X > n ) = - n
2 2
ﺣ ّﻝ:- 28 -
ﻣﺭﺓ ،ﻓﻲ ﻧﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﺷﺭﻭﻁ ﻭﺑﺻﻔﺔ ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻠﺔ ﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻣﺧﺭﺟﻳﻥ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ ﺇﻟﻘﺎء
.3ﻧﻛﺭﺭ ّ 2n
ﻣﺭﺓ ،ﻓﻲ ﻧﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﺷﺭﻭﻁ ﻭﺑﺻﻔﺔ
ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻧﻘﺩﻳﺔ .ﺇﺫﻥ ﻧﺣﻥ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ ﺑﺭﻧﻭﻟﻲ ﻣﻛﺭﺭﺓ ّ 2n
ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻠﺔ .
ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻧﻘﺩﻳﺔ ﻣﺗﻭﺍﺯﻧﺔ ،ﻣﻧﻪ ّ
ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻭﺟﻪ ﻫﻭ p = 0,5ﻭﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻅﻬﺭ ﻫﻭ
. q = 1 - p = 0,5
n
= .V (X ) = 2npq ﻭﻳﻧﺗﺞ ﺑﺎﻟﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺎﺷﺭ E (X ) = 2np = nﻭ
2
.4
ﺃ( ﺍﻟﺗﻌﺑﻳﺭ ﻋﻥ p nﺑﺩﻻﻟﺔ . n
÷1 æç2n ö
= ) . p n = p (X = n ﺑﺎﻟﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺎﺷﺭ ﻧﺟﺩ ÷ ç
4n çè n ÷÷ø
43
2n + 1
= . p n +1 ﺏ( ﺇﺛﺑﺎﺕ ﺃﻧّﻪ ﻣﻬﻣﺎ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺑﻳﻌﻲ nﻏﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺩﻭﻡp n ،
2n + 2
1 æç2n + 2ö÷ 1 1 !)(2n + 2 ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ
= p n +1 çç ÷÷ = ´ n
n +1 ÷
!)4 è n + 1 ø 4 4 ( n + 1)!(2n + 2 - n -1
1
. pn ﺝ( ﻧﺑﺭﻫﻥ ﺑﺎﻟﺗﺭﺍﺟﻊ ﺃﻧّﻪ ﻣﻬﻣﺎ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺑﻳﻌﻲ nﻏﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺩﻭﻡ،
2n + 1
1
، p n ﺣﻳﺙ * . n Î ﻧﺭﻣﺯ ﺑﺎﻟﺭﻣﺯ ) P (nﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻣﺗﺑﺎﻳﻧﺔ
2n + 1
1
p k +1 ﻭﻧﺑﺭﻫﻥ ﺻﺣﺔ ). P (k + 1ﺃﻱ ﻧﺑﺭﻫﻥ ّ
ﺃﻥ
2k + 3
2n + 1
= p n +1ﻭﻣﻥ ﻓﺭﺿﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺗﺭﺍﺟﻊ ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ﺣﺳﺏ ﺟﻭﺍﺏ ﺍﻟﺳﺅﺍﻝ .2ﺏ( ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ p n
2n + 2
1
. pk
2k + 1
ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ﺇﺛﺑﺎﺕ ّ
ﺃﻥ . 2k + 1 2k + 3 2k + 2
ﻧﻌﻠﻡ ّ
ﺃﻥ:
44
(2k + 1)(2k + 3) - (2k + 2) 2 = 4k 2 + 8k + 3 - (4k 2 + 8k + 4) = -1
ﺇﺫﻥ
0 < (2k + 1)(2k + 3) < (2k + 2) 2
ﻭﻣﻧﻪ
ﻭﻫﻛﺫﺍ ﻧﺟﺩ
p k +1 2k + 1 ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻳﻌﻧﻲ ّ
ﺃﻥ ) P (k + 1ﺻﺣﻳﺣﺔ .
1
ﻭﺃﺧﻳﺭﺍ ﻳﻧﺗﺞ
2k + 2 2k + 3
ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ :29
ﺃﺭﺍﺩﺕ ﻗﺭﺭﺕ ﻭﻛﺎﻟﺔ ﻟﻧﻘﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭﻳﻥ ﺑﺎﻟﺣﺎﻓﻼﺕ ﺗﺣﺳﻳﻥ ﻋﻣﻠﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺔ ﺑﻐﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺗﻘﻠﻳﻝ ﻣﻥ
ﺧﺳﺎﺋﺭﻫﺎ ﺟﺭﺍء ﻏﺵ ﺑﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭﻳﻥ .ﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﻗﺎﻣﺕ ﺑﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻣﺑﻧﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻳﻭﻣﻳﺔ ﻟﻣﺳﺎﺭﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ
ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﺳﺗﻌﻣﻠﻬﺎ ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻟﻣﺩّﺓ ﻋﺷﺭﻳﻥ ﻳﻭﻣﺎ ،ﺃﻱ ﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺔ ﺃﺭﺑﻌﻳﻥ ﻣﺳﺎﺭﺍ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻉ .ﻧﻔﺭﺽ ّ
ﺃﻥ
ﺃﻥ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺗﻌﺭﺽ ﺃﻱ ﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺔ ﻫﻭ . p ﻋﻣﻠﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺔ ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺑﻌﺿﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺑﻌﺽ ﻭ ّ
ﺳﻣﻳﺭ ﺳﻳﺊ ﺍﻟﻁﺑﻊ ﻓﻬﻭ ﻳﻐﺵ ﺑﺻﻔﺔ ﺩﺍﺋﻣﺔ ﻋﻧﺩﻣﺎ ﻳﺳﺗﻘﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻓﻠﺔ.
ﻟﻳﻛﻥ X iﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻳﺄﺧﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﻳﻣﺔ 1ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﻌﺭﺽ ﺳﻣﻳﺭ ﻟﻠﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﺭ ﺫﻱ ﺍﻟﺭﺗﺑﺔ i
ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻳﻣﺔ 0ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﺭﻯ.
.1ﺑﻳّﻥ ّ
ﺃﻥ Xﻳﻣﺛﻝ ﻋﺩﺩ ّ
ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﺗﻡ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺔ ﺳﻣﻳﺭ ،ﻋﻳﻥ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ . X
1
= .p .2ﻧﻔﺭﺽ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺳﺅﺍﻝ ّ
ﺃﻥ
20
ﺃ( ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﻷﻣﻝ ﺍﻟﺭﻳﺎﺿﻳﺎﺗﻲ ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ . X
ﺏ( ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ) p (X = 1) ، p (X = 0ﻭ ) . p (X = 2
ﺝ( ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺑﺗﻘﺭﻳﺏ ﻗﺩﺭﻩ ،10-4ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺗﻌﺭﺽ ﺳﻣﻳﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺛﻼﺙ ﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻝ .
45
ﺣ ّﻝ:- 29 -
.1
ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻐﺷﺎﺵ ﺳﻣﻳﺭ ﻳﻐﺵ ﺑﺻﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﺗﻡ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺔ ﺳﻣﻳﺭ .ﻧﻌﻠﻡ ّ
ﺃﻥ Xﻳﻣﺛﻝ ﻋﺩﺩ ّ ﺇﺛﺑﺎﺕ ّ
ﻣﺭﺓ ﻳﺗﻌﺭﺽ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺔ ﻳُﺿﺑﻁ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻏﺵ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ
ﺩﺍﺋﻣﺔ ﻋﻧﺩﻣﺎ ﻳﺳﺗﻘﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻓﻠﺔ ،ﺇﺫﻥ ﻛﻝ ّ
ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﻌﺭﺽ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ﺳﻣﻳﺭ
ﻳﺄﺧﺫ ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ X iﺍﻟﻘﻳﻣﺔ .1ﺑﺟﻣﻊ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻳﻡ ﻧﺣﺻﻝ ﺑﺎﻟﻔﻌﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺩﺩ ّ
ﻟﻠﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺔ .ﺃﻱ Xﻳﻣﺛﻝ ﻋﺩﺩ ّ
ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﺗﻡ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺔ ﺳﻣﻳﺭ.
ﺗﻌﻳﻳﻥ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ . X
ﻳﻣﺛﻝ Xﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻧﺟﺎﺣﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ 40ﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ ﻟﺑﺭﻧﻭﻟﻲ )ﻛﻝ ﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺔ ﻟﻣﺳﺎﺭﻳﻥ ﻭﻟﻬﺎ
ﻣﺧﺭﺟﻳﻥ ﻫﻣﺎ ،ﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺔ ﺳﻣﻳﺭ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ﺿﺑﻁﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻏﺵ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﻛﺱ ﺃﻱ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺗﻌﺭﺽ
1
= .p .2ﻧﻔﺭﺽ ّ
ﺃﻥ
20
ﺃ( ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ } . X (W) = {1,2,...,40
1
´ . E (X ) = np = 40 p = 40 ﺍﻷﻣﻝ ﺍﻟﺭﻳﺎﺿﻳﺎﺗﻲ ﻫﻭ = 2
20
ﺏ( ﺑﻣﺎ ّ
ﺃﻥ Xﻳﺗﺑﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺛﻧﺎﺋﻲ ) B (40, p
æ40ö
ﻓﺈﻥ P (X = k ) = çç ÷÷÷ p k (1 - p ) 40-kﻣﻊ }k Î {1,2,...,40
ّ
çè k ÷ø
æ40ö 1 19
ﻣﻥ ﺃﺟﻝ . P (X = 0) = ççç ÷÷÷ ( )0 ( ) 40 ، X = 0
è 0 ÷ø 20 20
æ40ö 1 19
ﻣﻥ ﺃﺟﻝ . P (X = 1) = ççç ÷÷÷ ( )1 ( )39 ، X = 1
è 1 ÷ø 20 20
46
æ40ö 1 19
ﻣﻥ ﺃﺟﻝ . P (X = 2) = ççç ÷÷÷ ( )2 ( )38 ، X = 2
è 2 ÷ø 20 20
ﺝ( ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺗﻌﺭﺽ ﺳﻣﻳﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺛﻼﺙ ﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻝ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺑﺗﻘﺭﻳﺏ ﻗﺩﺭﻩ 10-4
.
ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﺣﺳﺎﺑﻪ ﻫﻧﺎ ﻫﻭ ). P (X > 2
ﻭﺣﻳﺙ ّ
ﺃﻥ ))P (X 2) = (P ( X = 0) + P (X = 1) + P (X = 2
ّ
ﻓﺈﻥ ))P (X > 2) = 1 - (P (X = 0) + P ( X = 1) + P (X = 2
ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ :30
ﺗﺣﺗﻭﻱ ﻗﺎﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻏﺎﺯ ﻳﺗﻛﻭﻥ ﻣﻥ 75%ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﺟﺯﻳﺋﺎﺕ Aﻭ 25%ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﺟﺯﻳﺋﺎﺕ . Bﺗﻘﺫﻑ ﻫﺫﻩ
ﺍﻟﺟﺯﻳﺋﺎﺕ ،ﻋﺑﺭ ﻣﺻﻔﺎﺓ ،ﻧﺣﻭ ﺧﺯﺍﻧﻳﻥ K 1ﻭ . K 2ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺩﺧﻝ ﺇﺣﺩﻯ ﺟﺯﻳﺋﺎﺕ
2 1
.ﺑﻳﻧﻣﺎ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺩﺧﻝ ﺇﺣﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ Aﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺧﺯﺍﻥ K 1ﻫﻭ ﻭﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺩﺧﻭﻟﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺧﺯﺍﻥ K 2ﻫﻭ
3 3
1
ﺟﺯﻳﺋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ Bﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻱ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﺧﺯﺍﻧﻳﻥ ﻫﻭ .
2
.1ﻧﻌﺗﺑﺭ ﺟﺯﺋﻳﺔ ﻛﻳﻔﻳﺔ ﻣﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯ ،ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻷﺣﺩﺍﺙ ﺍﻵﺗﻳﺔ :
: A1ﺍﻟﺟﺯﻳﺋﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ Aﻭﺗﺩﺧﻝ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺧﺯﺍﻥ . K 1
47
: B 2ﺍﻟﺟﺯﻳﺋﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ Bﻭﺗﺩﺧﻝ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺧﺯﺍﻥ . K 2
1
= ) . p B (k 1 ) = p B (k 2 ﻭ
2
48
ﺃﻥ Aﻭ Bﺗﺷﻛﻼﻥ ﺗﺟﺯﺋﺔ ﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻹﻣﻛﺎﻧﻳﺎﺕ ،ﻓﺈﻧّﻪ ﻳﻧﺗﺞ ﺣﺳﺏ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻛﻠﻳﺔ
ﺑﻣﺎ ّ
1 1 3
= p (C 1 ) = p (A Ç k 1 ) + p (B Ç k 1 ) = p (A1 ) + p (B 1 ) = +
4 8 8
3 5
= . p (C 2) = 1 - p (C 1) = 1 -
8 8
ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ّ
ﺃﻥ ﺗﺩﺧﻝ ﻛﻝ ﻭﺍﺣﺩﺓ ﻣﻧﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺧﺯﺍﻥ K 1ﻫﻭ .2ﻋﻧﺩ ﻗﺫﻑ 5ﺟﺯﻳﺋﺎﺕ ﻋﺑﺭ ﺍﻟﻣﺻﻔﺎﺕّ ،
3
.
8
5
æ 3ö
ﻫﻭ ÷÷÷ . ççç ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺟﺯﻳﺋﺎﺕ ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺑﻌﺿﻬﺎّ ،
ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺩﺧﻭﻟﻬﺎ ﺟﻣﻌﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺧﺯﺍﻥ K 1 ﻭﺑﻣﺎ ّ
è8ø
ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ﺍﻟﻧﺎﻓﻳﺔ » ﺗﻭﺟﺩ ﺟﺯﻳﺋﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻝ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺧﺯﺍﻥ « K 2
5
æ 3ö
÷÷÷ .1 - ççç
è8ø
49